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Distributional changes for fish populations may be difficult to interpret since temperature responses are often confounded with ontogenetic shifts. However, the relative importance of these two types of fish movement (temperature responses and ontogenetic shifts) to population distribution remains largely unstudied. This study presents the first attempt to compare the two types of movement in depth, latitude and longitude for 10 abundant groundfish species across size class and subregion. We utilized large, quality‐controlled datasets from random depth‐stratified, bottom trawl surveys consistently conducted during the summer along NE Pacific shelf from 1996 to 2015. We show that the size structure of each species varied across years and subregions with dramatically strong or poor recruitments for some species in 2015 during a marine heatwave. Principal component analysis (PCA) demonstrated that ontogenetic shifts in depth represented the primary movement pattern while temperature responses in latitude and longitude constituted a major, but a secondary pattern. Re‐run by size class, PCA results further showed that the influence of temperature and ontogeny on population distribution varied by size classes with greater ontogenetic shifts in smaller fish and elevated temperature responses in larger fish. We further show substantial ontogeny‐induced movements by depth, latitude and longitude with high variability among species and subregions. Our analyses suggest that failing to account for size structure can lead to serious misinterpretation of population distributional changes in all three dimensions: depth, latitude and longitude for populations with or without episodic recruitments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both the ecological and social dimensions of fisheries are being affected by climate change. As a result, policymakers, managers, scientists and fishing communities are seeking guidance on how to holistically build resilience to climate change. Numerous studies have highlighted key attributes of resilience in fisheries, yet concrete examples that explicitly link these attributes to social‐ecological outcomes are lacking. To better understand climate resilience, we assembled 18 case studies spanning ecological, socio‐economic, governance and geographic contexts. Using a novel framework for evaluating 38 resilience attributes, the case studies were systematically assessed to understand how attributes enable or inhibit resilience to a given climate stressor. We found population abundance, learning capacity, and responsive governance were the most important attributes for conferring resilience, with ecosystem connectivity, place attachment, and accountable governance scoring the strongest across the climate‐resilient fisheries. We used these responses to develop an attribute typology that describes robust sources of resilience, actionable priority attributes and attributes that are case specific or require research. We identified five fishery archetypes to guide stakeholders as they set long‐term goals and prioritize actions to improve resilience. Lastly, we found evidence for two pathways to resilience: (1) building ecological assets and strengthening communities, which we observed in rural and small‐scale fisheries, and (2) building economic assets and improving effective governance, which was demonstrated in urban and wealthy fisheries. Our synthesis presents a novel framework that can be directly applied to identify approaches, pathways and actionable levers for improving climate resilience in fishery systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is projected to affect the productivity of global fisheries. Management based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) has been effective at eliminating overfishing in many regions. However, continuing to use yield‐maximizing targets under climate‐driven changes in productivity can result in higher anthropogenic pressure on populations subject to climate‐related stress than maintaining status quo management targets. We demonstrate this effect using a theoretical example and case studies from snow crab in the eastern Bering Sea and a global marine fisheries database. In these examples, the conservation gain (i.e. biomass in the ocean) of maintaining status quo management targets is larger than the small gain in harvest made through climate adaptation in MSY‐based management. The aggregate conservation gain of maintaining management targets increases as the harmful impacts of climate change on productivity worsen. Instead of climate‐adaptive MSY‐based targets, new management tools are needed to balance conservation and food production in ecosystems of populations displaying non‐stationary productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been more than 100 years since fish were first described to move to deep waters as size increased, termed 'Heincke's Law'. However, large‐scale studies on ontogenetic shifts are rare compared with increased reports of distributional changes in response to temperature, often confounded with the ontogenetic shifts. We fill this gap by examining the distribution of ten abundant groundfish species in three dimensions, depth, latitude and longitude, at 10‐cm size intervals within nine subregions of NE Pacific. Here, we utilized large, quality‐controlled datasets from random depth‐stratified, bottom trawl surveys consistently conducted during summer along the NE Pacific shelf from 1996 to 2015. Groundfish demonstrated complex ontogenetic movements in three dimensions across species, size class and subregion. In addition to the expected ontogenetic deepening, shoaling also occurred and some species demonstrated major ontogenetic shifts in longitude and/or latitude with limited changes in depth. Based on standardized ontogenetic shifts in three dimensions, our analyses show that there were significant differences in aggregate fish ontogenetic shifts between small (≤30 cm) and large (>30 cm) size groups. Small fish exhibited substantially larger ontogenetic shifts in depth than the large size group while both groups showed relatively small shifts in latitude and longitude. Our analyses strongly suggest that size structure and ontogenetic shifts should be included in the population distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poleward species range shifts have been predicted to result from climate change, and many observations have confirmed such movement. Poleward shifts may represent a homogeneous shift in distribution, seasonal northward movement of specific populations, or colonization processes at the poleward edge of the distribution. The ecosystem of the Bering Sea has been changing along with the climate, moving from an arctic to a subarctic system. Several fish species have been observed farther north than previously reported and in increasing abundances. We examined one of these fish species, Pacific cod, in the northern Bering Sea (NBS) to assess whether they migrated from another stock in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS), Gulf of Alaska, or Aleutian Islands, or whether they represent a separate population. Genetic analyses using 3,599 single nucleotide polymorphism markers indicated that nonspawning cod collected in August 2017 in the NBS were similar to spawning stocks of cod in the EBS. This result suggests escalating northward movement of the large EBS stock during summer months. Whether the cod observed in the NBS migrate south during winter to spawn or remain in the NBS as a sink population is unknown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trait‐based climate vulnerability assessments based on expert evaluation have emerged as a rapid tool to assess biological vulnerability when detailed correlative or mechanistic studies are not feasible. Trait‐based assessments typically view vulnerability as a combination of sensitivity and exposure to climate change. However, in some locations, a substantial amount of information may exist on system productivity and environmental conditions (both current and projected), with potential disparities in the information available for data‐rich and data‐poor stocks. Incorporating this level of detailed information poses challenges when conducting, and communicating uncertainty from, rapid vulnerability assessments. We applied a trait‐based vulnerability assessment to 36 fish and invertebrate stocks in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS), a data‐rich ecosystem. In recent years, the living marine resources of the EBS and Aleutian Islands have supported fisheries worth more than US $1 billion of annual ex‐vessel value. Our vulnerability assessment uses projections (to 2039) from three downscaled climate models, and graphically characterizes the variation in climate projections between climate models and between seasons. Bootstrapping was used to characterize uncertainty in specific biological traits and environmental variables, and in the scores for sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability. The sensitivity of EBS stocks to climate change ranged from "low" to "high," but vulnerability ranged between "low" and "moderate" due to limited exposure to climate change. Comparison with more detailed studies reveals that water temperature is an important variable for projecting climate impacts on stocks such as walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), and sensitivity analyses revealed that modifying the rule for determining vulnerability increased the vulnerability scores. This study demonstrates the importance of considering several uncertainties (e.g., climate projections, biological, and model structure) when conducting climate vulnerability assessments, and can be extended in future research to consider the vulnerability of user groups dependent on these stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although climate‐induced shifts in fish distribution have been widely reported at the population level, studies that account for ontogenetic shifts and subregional differences when assessing responses are rare.In this study, groundfish distributional changes in depth, latitude, and longitude were assessed at different size classes by species within nine subregions. We examined large, quality‐controlled datasets of depth‐stratified‐random bottom trawl surveys conducted during summer in three large regions—the Gulf of Alaska and the west coasts of Canada and the United States—over the period 1996–2015, a time period punctuated by a marine "heat wave." Temporal biases in bottom temperature were minimized by subdividing each region into three subregions, each with short‐duration surveys. Near‐bottom temperatures, weighted by stratum area, were unsynchronized across subregions and exhibited varying subregional interannual variability. The weighted mean bottom depths in the subregions also vary largely among subregions. The centroids (centers of gravity) of groundfish distribution were weighted with catch per unit effort and stratum area for 10 commercially important groundfish species by size class and subregion. Our multivariate analyses showed that there were significant differences in aggregate fish movement responses to warm temperatures across subregions but not among species or sizes. Groundfish demonstrated poleward responses to warming temperatures only in a few subregions and moved shallower or deeper to seek colder waters. The temperature responses of groundfish depended on where they were. Under global warming, groundfish may form geographically distinct thermal ecoregions along the northeast Pacific shelf. Shallow‐depth species exhibited greatly different distributional responses to temperature changes across subregions while deep‐depth species of different subregions tend to have relatively similar temperature responses. Future climate studies would benefit by considering fish distributions on small subregional scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the distributional shifts of groundfish in response to anomalous ocean conditions, particularly the recent anomalously warm period (2014–2016; "The Blob"), based on data from ten Gulf of Alaska bottom trawl surveys conducted by the Alaska Fisheries Science Center during 1996–2015. Six groundfish species were considered: Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias), walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), Pacific ocean perch (Sebastes alutus), northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra), and southern rock sole (Lepidopsetta bilineata). Ontogenetic differences were examined by dividing data for each fish species into size classes. Our study demonstrated that after accounting for size‐specific depth preferences, the spatial responses of groundfish to anomalous ocean conditions differed by species and foraging guild in the central Gulf of Alaska. Pacific cod and arrowtooth flounder showed similar responses to ocean warming, but different responses to cooling. In general, Pacific cod moved to deeper depths in warmer years and moved to shallower depths in colder years. Arrowtooth flounder also moved deeper in warmer years. However, in colder years, large arrowtooth flounder (>40 cm) shifted toward shallower depths while smaller‐sized fish shifted toward deeper depths. In warmer years, large pollock (>30 cm) moved to deeper waters while smaller pollock (10–20 cm) moved to shallower waters. Pacific ocean perch exhibited an opposite response to thermal changes in habitat compared with Pacific cod and arrowtooth flounder. They moved deeper in colder years, but there was no clear change in depth as a function of size in response to warmer habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of climate effects often ignore differences in life history for individual species. We analyzed a 34-year time series of eastern Bering Sea fish surveys to evaluate changes in distribution by length and between cold and warm shelf-wide average water temperatures for 20 species over inhabited depth, temperature, and location. All species showed evidence of ontogenetic migration. Differences in distribution between years with warm and years with cold shelf-wide water temperatures varied among species and within species at different lengths. For species where shelf-wide temperature effects were detected, the mid-sized fish were most active in changing spatial distribution. For aquatic organisms ontogenetic migration occurs because life history stages have different environmental requirements. This study illustrates the need to consider species responses to climate change over different life history stages, and that studies on ecosystem responses should take ontogenetic differences into consideration when assessing impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the hypothesis that synchronous recruitment is due to a shared susceptibility to environmental processes using stock-recruitment residuals for 52 marine fish stocks within three Northeast Pacific large marine ecosystems: the Eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, Gulf of Alaska, and California Current. There was moderate coherence in exceptionally strong and weak year-classes and correlations across stocks. Based on evidence of synchrony from these analyses, we used Bayesian hierarchical models to relate recruitment to environmental covariates for groups of stocks that may be similarly influenced by environmental processes based on their life histories. There were consistent relationships among stocks to the covariates, especially within the Gulf of Alaska and California Current. The best Gulf of Alaska model included Northeast Pacific sea surface height as a predictor of recruitment, and was particularly strong for stocks dependent on cross-shelf transport during the larval phase for recruitment. In the California Current the best-fit model included San Francisco coastal sea level height as a predictor, with higher recruitment for many stocks corresponding to anomalously high sea level the year before spawning and low sea level the year of spawning. The best Eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands model included several environmental variables as covariates and there was some consistent response across stocks to these variables. Future research may be able to utilize these across-stock environmental influences, in conjunction with an understanding of ecological processes important across early life history stages, to improve identification of environmental drivers of recruitment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the question of which quantitative modelling tools can be used to support an ecosystem approach to management (EAM), with a focus on evaluating the implication of decisions on the biological system being managed. Managers of federal fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea, USA, have adopted an EAM. The tools used to support EAM in the eastern Bering Sea serve as a guide to what types of models could be used elsewhere. A review of the role of natural science in the implementation of EAM shows that scientific advice enters into decision-making at a variety of steps. Single-species stock assessment and projection models are the most commonly used tools employed to inform managers. Comprehensive assessments (e.g. management strategy evaluation) are emerging as a new and potentially valuable analysis technique for use in assessing trade-offs of different strategic alternatives. In the case of management in the eastern Bering Sea, end-to-end models and coupled biophysical models have been used primarily to advance scientific understanding, but have not been applied in a management context. This review highlights that implementation of an EAM in a management environment such as eastern Bering Sea requires substantial commitments to the collection and analysis of data and support for a group of analysts with interdisciplinary training in population dynamics, oceanography and ecology. This review supports the growing recognition that a diverse suite of modelling tools is needed to address tactical and strategic management issues germane to the adoption of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major reorganization of the North-east Pacific biota transpired following a climatic `regime shift' in the mid 1970s. In this paper, we characterize the effects of interdecadal climate forcing on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific Ocean. We consider the concept of scale in terms of both time and space within the North Pacific ecosystem and develop a conceptual model to illustrate how climate variability is linked to ecosystem change. Next we describe a number of recent studies relating climate to marine ecosystem dynamics in the NE Pacific Ocean. These studies have focused on most major components of marine ecosystems – primary and secondary producers, forage species, and several levels of predators. They have been undertaken at different time and space scales. However, taken together, they reveal a more coherent picture of how decadal-scale climate forcing may affect the large oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific. Finally, we synthesize the insight gained from interpreting these studies. Several general conclusions can be drawn. 1 There are large-scale, low-frequency, and sometimes very rapid changes in the distribution of atmospheric pressure over the North Pacific which are, in turn, reflected in ocean properties and circulation. 2 Oceanic ecosystems respond on similar time and space scales to variations in physical conditions. 3 Linkages between the atmosphere/ocean physics and biological responses are often different across time and space scales. 4 While the cases presented here demonstrate oceanic ecosystem response to climate forcing, they provide only hints of the mechanisms of interaction. 5 A model whereby ecosystem response to specified climate variation can be successfully predicted will be difficult to achieve because of scale mismatches and nonlinearities in the atmosphere–ocean–biosphere system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT NOAA's Fisheries Oceanography Coordinated Investigations (FOCI) contributes information to help forecast year-class strength of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the Gulf of Alaska. Quantitative estimates of recruitment are obtained from models of stock assessment and stock projection employing information supplied by FOCI. To generate its information, FOCI convenes specialists in marine biology, physical and fisheries oceanography, meteorology, and statistics to assemble and analyse relevant biological and physical time series with respect to recruitment and processes hypothesized to influence fish survival. Statistical methods encompass linear and nonlinear regression, stochastic simulation modelling, transfer function time series modelling, and tree-modelling regression. The current database consists of 31 years of data, and analyses have identified factors that affect ocean stratification and circulation during spring and summer of the fish's birth year as being important to recruitment. A conceptual model of the recruitment process serves as the framework for a recruitment forecast scheme. A stochastic mathematical simulation model of the conceptual model produces similarities between simulated and observed recruitment time series. FOCI has successfully forecast recruitment observed over the past several years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT A series of age-specific life tables for walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma) in the western Gulf of Alaska was compiled for the 1980-91 year classes. The life tables were utilized to perform an exploratory key factor analysis to examine the timing of critical periods in the recruitment process, evidence of density-dependence at different stages and trends in mortality rates. Early larval mortality was significantly correlated with generational mortality (In recruits/spawning bio-mass), but patterns in juvenile mortality also were similar to generational mortality and in some years were clearly dominant in determining the fate of a cohort. Density-dependent mortality, based on the correlation between mortality and initial abundance, was indicated only for the late larval to early juvenile stage. Time trends were marginally significant for juvenile mortality. It is speculated that the observed increase in juvenile mortality is associated with increasing abundance of arrowtooth flounder. Weaknesses in the data base are discussed; these along with the short time series involved make our conclusions tentative and subject to further study. We hypothesize that pollock recruitment levels can be established at any life stage depending on sufficient supply from prior stages, a type of dynamics which can be termed supply dependent multiple life stage control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]