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Reliable estimates of population size and demographic rates are central to assessing the status of threatened species. However, obtaining individual‐based demographic rates requires long‐term data, which is often costly and difficult to collect. Photographic data offer an inexpensive, noninvasive method for individual‐based monitoring of species with unique markings, and could therefore increase available demographic data for many species. However, selecting suitable images and identifying individuals from photographic catalogs is prohibitively time‐consuming. Automated identification software can significantly speed up this process. Nevertheless, automated methods for selecting suitable images are lacking, as are studies comparing the performance of the most prominent identification software packages. In this study, we develop a framework that automatically selects images suitable for individual identification, and compare the performance of three commonly used identification software packages; Hotspotter, I3S‐Pattern, and WildID. As a case study, we consider the African wild dog, Lycaon pictus, a species whose conservation is limited by a lack of cost‐effective large‐scale monitoring. To evaluate intraspecific variation in the performance of software packages, we compare identification accuracy between two populations (in Kenya and Zimbabwe) that have markedly different coat coloration patterns. The process of selecting suitable images was automated using convolutional neural networks that crop individuals from images, filter out unsuitable images, separate left and right flanks, and remove image backgrounds. Hotspotter had the highest image‐matching accuracy for both populations. However, the accuracy was significantly lower for the Kenyan population (62%), compared to the Zimbabwean population (88%). Our automated image preprocessing has immediate application for expanding monitoring based on image matching. However, the difference in accuracy between populations highlights that population‐specific detection rates are likely and may influence certainty in derived statistics. For species such as the African wild dog, where monitoring is both challenging and expensive, automated individual recognition could greatly expand and expedite conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cognitive buffer hypothesis proposes that species with larger brains (relative to their body size) exhibit greater behavioural flexibility, conferring an advantage in unpredictable or novel environments. Therefore, behavioural flexibility – and relative brain size – are likely to be important predictors of a species' vulnerability to anthropogenic pressures and, ultimately, extinction risk. However, current evidence linking brain size to species' vulnerability and extinction risk is inconclusive. Furthermore, studies examining the relationship between relative brain size and behavioural flexibility have mainly focused on foraging innovations, whilst other forms of behavioural flexibility remain unexplored. In this study, we collate species‐specific information and examine links between relative brain size, rates of natal and adult dispersal (a measure of flexibility in breeding site fidelity), vulnerability to six anthropogenic threats and extinction risk for 131 species of seabird. We focused our study on seabirds, a highly threatened group that displays large variation in both relative brain size and dispersal behaviour. We found a significant positive relationship between relative brain size and natal dispersal rate, suggesting that relative brain size could enhance flexibility in breeding site choice in seabirds, consistent with the cognitive buffer hypothesis. However, this relationship does not persist when we consider adult dispersal, possibly reflecting constraints imposed by mate selection and knowledge transfer in seabirds. We also show that relative brain size is negatively associated with vulnerability to climate change. These findings have immediate application for predicting interspecific variation in species' vulnerability to climate change and identifying priority species for conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive species are one of the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide, and the eradication of invasive species from islands is a highly efficient management strategy. Because eradication operations require large financial investments, uncertainty over the magnitude of impacts of both invasive species and their removal can impede the willingness of decision makers to invest in eradication. Such uncertainty is prevalent for long‐lived species that display an inherent lag between life stages affected by invasive species and those used for population status assessments.Albatrosses are amongst the longest‐living bird species and are threatened on land by invasive species and at sea by industrial fisheries. As in many seabird species, usually only a segment of the population (breeding adults) is used for status assessments, making it difficult to assess albatross population trends and the potential benefit of conservation action, such as the management of predatory invasive species.We used population monitoring and mark‐recapture data to estimate the past population trajectory of the critically endangered Tristan albatross Diomedea dabbenena by accounting for unobservable birds at sea in an integrated population model. We then projected the future population trajectory of Tristan albatrosses for scenarios with or without predation by invasive house mice Mus musculus on their main breeding site, Gough Island.The adult breeding population remained stable between 2004 and 2021, but breeding success was low (31%) and our model indicated that the total population (including unobservable immature birds) decreased from a median estimate of 9,795 to 7,752 birds. Eradicating invasive mice leading to a two‐fold increase in breeding success would result in a 1.8–7.6 times higher albatross population by 2050 (median estimate 10,352 individuals) than without this intervention.Low reproductive output for long‐lived species may lead to a cryptic population decrease, which can be obscured from readily available counts of breeding pairs by changes in the population structure. Mouse eradication is necessary to halt the ongoing population decrease of the Tristan albatross, even if this decrease is not yet apparent in the breeding population size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability of individual animals to balance their energy budgets throughout the annual cycle is important for their survival, reproduction and population dynamics. However, the annual cycles of many wild, mobile animals are difficult to observe and our understanding of how individuals balance their energy budgets throughout the year therefore remains poor.We developed a hierarchical Bayesian state‐space model to investigate how key components of animal energy budgets (namely individual energy gain and storage) varied in space and time. Our model used biologger‐derived estimates of time‐activity budgets, locations and energy expenditure to infer year‐round time series of energy income and reserves. The model accounted for seasonality in environmental drivers such as sea surface temperature and daylength, allowing us to identify times and locations of high energy gain.Our study system was a population of common guillemots Uria aalge breeding at a western North Sea colony. These seabirds manage their energy budgets by adjusting their behaviour and accumulating fat reserves. However, typically during severe weather conditions, birds can experience an energy deficit over a sustained period, leading to starvation and large‐scale mortality events.We show that guillemot energy gain varied in both time and space. Estimates of guillemot body mass varied throughout the annual cycle and birds periodically experienced losses in mass. Mass losses were likely to have either been adaptive, or due to energetic bottlenecks, the latter leading to increased susceptibility to mortality. Guillemots tended to be lighter towards the edge of their spatial distribution.We describe a framework that combines biologging data, time‐activity budget analysis and Bayesian state‐space modelling to identify times and locations of high energetic reward or potential energetic bottlenecks in a wild animal population. Our approach can be extended to address ecological and conservation‐driven questions that were previously unanswerable due to logistical complexities in collecting data on wild, mobile animals across full annual cycles. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population viability analyses (PVA) are now routinely used during the consenting process for offshore wind energy developments to assess potential impacts to vulnerable species, such as seabirds. These models are typically based on mean vital rates, such as survival and fecundity, with some level of environmental stochasticity (i.e., temporal variation). However, many species of seabird are experiencing population decline due to temporal (i.e., directional) trends in their vital rates. We assess the prevalence of temporal trends in rates of fecundity for a sentinel species of seabird, the black‐legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, and examine how accounting for these relationships affects the predictive accuracy of PVA, as well as the projected population response to an extrinsic threat. We found that temporal trends in kittiwake rates of fecundity are widespread, and that including these trends in PVA assessments dramatically influences the projected rate of population decline. We advocate that model validation become a prerequisite step in seabird PVA assessments to identify potential biases influencing the projected population response. We also argue that environmental factors driving current population dynamics need to be incorporated in PVA impact assessments as potential "worst‐case" scenarios. These findings have immediate application for improving and reducing uncertainty in impact assessments conducted as part of the consenting process for offshore wind energy developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To infer the potential for competition between an important Antarctic predator, the macaroni penguin, and the krill fishery by examining the spatial overlap in prey consumption and catches. Location Scotia Sea and adjacent waters. Methods The study focused on the winter period as this is the only time of the year when spatio-temporal overlaps between macaroni penguin foraging and the krill fishery can occur. We tracked adult macaroni penguins from a colony in South Georgia using global location sensors to determine winter distribution, and bioenergetics models to calculate the biomass of food consumed during the winter period. We combined these to produce a surface of the tonnes of krill consumed, which could be compared directly with the spatial distribution of the tonnes of krill caught by the fishery. Results Adult macaroni penguins from South Georgia consumed 135,826 tonnes of krill (95% CIs: 83,446-188,140) during the winter, which is similar to the 98,431 tonnes caught by fisheries over the same period. However, macaroni penguins had a very wide pelagic distribution across the Scotia Sea, whereas the fishery was restricted to three small areas on shelf edges, such that their spatial overlap was negligible. The proportion of the estimated krill stock taken by macaroni penguins and the krill fishery was small at both the scale of the Scotia Sea and the local areas within which the fisheries operate. Main conclusions Competition between macaroni penguins and the krill fishery is low under current management and far less than that among the various species of krill predators that occur in the Scotia Sea. Our method will allow quantification of changes in competition between macaroni penguins and krill fisheries should the latter expand in the future, and provides a framework for assessing predator-fishery competition in other systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the demographic response of free-living animal populations to different drivers is the first step towards reliable prediction of population trends., Penguins have exhibited dramatic declines in population size, and many studies have linked this to bottom-up processes altering the abundance of prey species. The effects of individual traits have been considered to a lesser extent, and top-down regulation through predation has been largely overlooked due to the difficulties in empirically measuring this at sea where it usually occurs., For 10 years (2003-2012), macaroni penguins ( Eudyptes chrysolophus) were marked with subcutaneous electronic transponder tags and re-encountered using an automated gateway system fitted at the entrance to the colony. We used multistate mark-recapture modelling to identify the different drivers influencing survival rates and a sensitivity analysis to assess their relative importance across different life stages., Survival rates were low and variable during the fledging year (mean = 0·33), increasing to much higher levels from age 1 onwards (mean = 0·89). We show that survival of macaroni penguins is driven by a combination of individual quality, top-down predation pressure and bottom-up environmental forces. The relative importance of these covariates was age specific. During the fledging year, survival rates were most sensitive to top-down predation pressure, followed by individual fledging mass, and finally bottom-up environmental effects. In contrast, birds older than 1 year showed a similar response to bottom-up environmental effects and top-down predation pressure., We infer from our results that macaroni penguins will most likely be negatively impacted by an increase in the local population size of giant petrels. Furthermore, this population is, at least in the short term, likely to be positively influenced by local warming. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of considering multiple causal effects across different life stages when examining the survival rates of seabirds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim Competition for food among populations of closely related species and conspecifics that occur in both sympatry and parapatry can be reduced by interspecific and intraspecific spatial segregation. According to predictions of niche partitioning, segregation is expected to occur at habitat boundaries among congeners and within habitats among conspecifics, while negative relationships in the density of species or populations will occur in areas of overlap. We tested these predictions by modelling the winter distributions of two crested penguin species from three colonies in the south-western Atlantic. Location Penguins were tracked from two large colonies on the Falkland Islands and one in South Georgia, from where they dispersed through the South Atlantic, Southern Ocean and south-eastern Pacific. Methods Forty macaroni penguins ( Eudyptes chrysolophus) from South Georgia and 82 southern rockhopper penguins ( Eudyptes chrysocome chrysocome) from two colonies in the Falkland Islands were equipped with global location sensors which log time and light, allowing positions to be estimated twice-daily, from April to August in 2011. Positions were gridded and converted into maps of penguin density. Metrics of overlap were calculated and density was related to remote-sensed oceanographic variables and competitor density using generalized additive models. Results Macaroni penguins from western South Georgia and southern rockhopper penguins from Steeple Jason Island, Falkland Islands, were spatially segregated by differences in their habitat preferences thus supporting our first prediction regarding interspecific segregation. However, southern rockhopper penguins from Beauchêne Island showed a marked spatial overlap with macaroni penguins as the two had similar habitat preferences and strong mutual associations when controlling for habitat. Contrary to our predictions relating to intraspecific segregation, southern rockhopper penguins from Beauchêne Island and Steeple Jason Island were segregated by differences in habitat selection. Main conclusions Morphological differentiation probably allows macaroni penguins from South Georgia and southern rockhopper penguins from Beauchêne Island to coexist in areas of spatial overlap, whereas segregation of the two Falkland rockhopper penguin populations may have arisen from two distinct lineages retaining cultural fidelity to ancestral wintering areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]