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Innovation has the potential to enable conservation science and practice to keep pace with the escalating threats to global biodiversity, but this potential will only be realized if such innovations are designed and developed to fulfill specific needs and solve well‐defined conservation problems. We propose that business‐world strategies for assessing the practicality of innovation can be applied to assess the viability of innovations, such as new technology, for addressing biodiversity conservation challenges. Here, we outline a five‐step, "lean start‐up" based approach for considering conservation innovation from a business‐planning perspective. Then, using three prominent conservation initiatives – Marxan (software), Conservation Drones (technology support), and Mataki (wildlife‐tracking devices) – as case studies, we show how considering proposed initiatives from the perspective of a conceptual business model can support innovative technologies in achieving desired conservation outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To determine whether extinction risk assessments based on biological collections and using Criterion B of the IUCN Red List Criteria reflect in part an accurate measure of species rarity and thus extinction risk. Location Madagascar. Methods We calculate the extent of occurrence ( EOO) and area of occupancy ( AOO) for orchids using herbarium specimen data. Correlations were made against range, occupancy, extinction risk, number of specimens and the date of description. We calculated the average increase in range per species specimen, correlated this against the date of description and determined significance of the observed EOO accumulation using randomization tests. Results Significant negative correlations were found between date of description and all measures of range, occupancy and associated Red List Categories and number of specimens, as well as between the average range accumulation per specimen and date of description. Seventy-five percentage of species' observed EOO accumulations significantly differed from random. Maximum deviations between observed EOO accumulations and those derived from random sampling were always significantly positive. For most species, this occurred more frequently during the first half of the accumulation sequence. Main conclusions Species described more recently have smaller ranges and occupancies, fewer specimens and greater perceived extinction risk status. Levels of geographic uniqueness of collections are higher in species described more recently. Awareness of a species range increased faster than random, particularly in the first half of the sampling process, suggesting that newly discovered or yet to be discovered species are rare and likely have a higher risk of extinction. For many species, biological collections represent the sum of our knowledge. While data may be limited, such species should be listed in an appropriate Red List Category in accordance with the IUCN Red List Guidelines rather than as Data Deficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species' distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11-13% for all species combined (14-15% for mammals, 7-8% for birds, and 12-15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these targets can be met. We projected trends in two widely used indicators of population abundance Geometric Mean Abundance, equivalent to the Living Planet Index and extinction risk (the Red List Index) under different climate and land-use change scenarios. Testing these on terrestrial carnivore and ungulate species, we found that both indicators decline steadily, and by 2050, under a Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, geometric mean population abundance declines by 18-35% while extinction risk increases for 8-23% of the species, depending on assumptions about species responses to climate change. BAU will therefore fail Convention on Biological Diversity target 12 of improving the conservation status of known threatened species. An alternative sustainable development scenario reduces both extinction risk and population losses compared with BAU and could lead to population increases. Our approach to model species responses to global changes brings the focus of scenarios directly to the species level, thus taking into account an additional dimension of biodiversity and paving the way for including stronger ecological foundations into future biodiversity scenario assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key measure of humanity's global impact is by how much it has increased species extinction rates. Familiar statements are that these are 100-1000 times pre-human or background extinction levels. Estimating recent rates is straightforward, but establishing a background rate for comparison is not. Previous researchers chose an approximate benchmark of 1 extinction per million species per year (E/MSY). We explored disparate lines of evidence that suggest a substantially lower estimate. Fossil data yield direct estimates of extinction rates, but they are temporally coarse, mostly limited to marine hard-bodied taxa, and generally involve genera not species. Based on these data, typical background loss is 0.01 genera per million genera per year. Molecular phylogenies are available for more taxa and ecosystems, but it is debated whether they can be used to estimate separately speciation and extinction rates. We selected data to address known concerns and used them to determine median extinction estimates from statistical distributions of probable values for terrestrial plants and animals. We then created simulations to explore effects of violating model assumptions. Finally, we compiled estimates of diversification-the difference between speciation and extinction rates for different taxa. Median estimates of extinction rates ranged from 0.023 to 0.135 E/MSY. Simulation results suggested over- and under-estimation of extinction from individual phylogenies partially canceled each other out when large sets of phylogenies were analyzed. There was no evidence for recent and widespread pre-human overall declines in diversity. This implies that average extinction rates are less than average diversification rates. Median diversification rates were 0.05-0.2 new species per million species per year. On the basis of these results, we concluded that typical rates of background extinction may be closer to 0.1 E/MSY. Thus, current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher. Estimación de la Tasa Normal de Extinción de Especies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systematic conservation planning optimizes trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and human activities by accounting for socioeconomic costs while aiming to achieve prescribed conservation objectives. However, the most cost-efficient conservation plan can be very dissimilar to any other plan achieving the set of conservation objectives. This is problematic under conditions of implementation uncertainty (e.g., if all or part of the plan becomes unattainable). We determined through simulations of parallel implementation of conservation plans and habitat loss the conditions under which optimal plans have limited chances of implementation and where implementation attempts would fail to meet objectives. We then devised a new, flexible method for identifying conservation priorities and scheduling conservation actions. This method entails generating a number of alternative plans, calculating the similarity in site composition among all plans, and selecting the plan with the highest density of neighboring plans in similarity space. We compared our method with the classic method that maximizes cost efficiency with synthetic and real data sets. When implementation was uncertain-a common reality-our method provided higher likelihood of achieving conservation targets. We found that χ, a measure of the shortfall in objectives achieved by a conservation plan if the plan could not be implemented entirely, was the main factor determining the relative performance of a flexibility enhanced approach to conservation prioritization. Our findings should help planning authorities prioritize conservation efforts in the face of uncertainty about future condition and availability of sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Software use is ubiquitous in the species distribution modelling ( SDM) domain; nearly every scientist working on SDM either uses or develops specialist SDM software; however, little is formally known about the prevalence or preference of one software over another. We seek to provide, for the first time, a 'snapshot' of SDM users, the methods they use and the questions they answer. Location Global. Methods We conducted a survey of over 300 SDM scientists to capture a snapshot of the community and used an extensive literature search of SDM papers in order to investigate the characteristics of the SDM community and its interactions with software developers in terms of co-authoring research publications. Results Our results show that those members of the community who develop software and who are directly connected with developers are among the most highly connected and published authors in the field. We further show that the two most popular softwares for SDM lie at opposite ends of the 'use-complexity' continuum. Main conclusion Given the importance of SDM research in a changing environment, with its increasing use in the policy domain, it is vital to be aware of what software and methodologies are being implemented. Here, we present a snapshot of the SDM community, the software and the methods being used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How multiple types of non-trophic interactions map onto trophic networks in real communities remains largely unknown. We present the first effort, to our knowledge, describing a comprehensive ecological network that includes all known trophic and diverse non-trophic links among >100 coexisting species for the marine rocky intertidal community of the central Chilean coast. Our results suggest that non-trophic interactions exhibit highly nonrandom structures both alone and with respect to food web structure. The occurrence of different types of interactions, relative to all possible links, was well predicted by trophic structure and simple traits of the source and target species. In this community, competition for space and positive interactions related to habitat/refuge provisioning by sessile and/or basal species were by far the most abundant non-trophic interactions. If these patterns are corroborated in other ecosystems, they may suggest potentially important dynamic constraints on the combined architecture of trophic and non-trophic interactions. The nonrandom patterning of non-trophic interactions suggests a path forward for developing a more comprehensive ecological network theory to predict the functioning and resilience of ecological communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely accepted that the main driver of the observed decline in biological diversity is increasing human pressure on Earth's ecosystems. However, the spatial patterns of change in human pressure and their relation to conservation efforts are less well known. We developed a spatially and temporally explicit map of global change in human pressure over 2 decades between 1990 and 2010 at a resolution of 10 km2. We evaluated 22 spatial data sets representing different components of human pressure and used them to compile a temporal human pressure index (THPI) based on 3 data sets: human population density, land transformation, and electrical power infrastructure. We investigated how the THPI within protected areas was correlated to International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) management categories and the human development index (HDI) and how the THPI was correlated to cumulative pressure on the basis of the original human footprint index. Since the early 1990s, human pressure increased 64% of the terrestrial areas; the largest increases were in Southeast Asia. Protected areas also exhibited overall increases in human pressure, the degree of which varied with location and IUCN management category. Only wilderness areas and natural monuments (management categories Ib and III) exhibited decreases in pressure. Protected areas not assigned any category exhibited the greatest increases. High HDI values correlated with greater reductions in pressure across protected areas, while increasing age of the protected area correlated with increases in pressure. Our analysis is an initial step toward mapping changes in human pressure on the natural world over time. That only 3 data sets could be included in our spatio-temporal global pressure map highlights the challenge to measuring pressure changes over time. Mapeo del Cambio en la Presión Humana Global en Tierra y Dentro de Áreas Protegidas [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Habitat loss continues to cause loss of biodiversity. To quantify the effects of land-use change on the diversity and composition of ecological communities - in terms of functional groups - we make modelled estimates of the impact of past and future (to 2050) land-use change on the overall diversity and dietary guild structure of tropical forest bird communities. Location Tropical and subtropical forests (40° S to 40° N). Methods Using a likelihood-based model, we project the impact of land-use intensity on the diversity and functional structure of tropical forest bird communities, including an estimation of uncertainty. To explore the extent to which predicted impacts are determined by the inherent sensitivity of communities because of the traits possessed by the species present, we quantify communities in terms of trait composition and explore relationships between trait composition and diversity/guild loss. Results We estimate that habitat loss has led to an average decrease of 4% in total abundance, but with marked differences across different guilds, leading to substantial changes in community composition: an 11.4% loss of frugivores, 7.8% loss of nectarivores and 7.3% loss of insectivores, and a 4.0% gain of other herbivores. Projected land-use change is predicted to result in average future losses of 1% of total abundance, 1% of each of frugivores, nectarivores and insectivores, but no average change in the abundance of other herbivores. Past and future changes have varied substantially across the biome, owing to variation in land-use change and in the initial trait composition of communities. Main conclusions We predict that marked changes in community structure have occurred in the past and will occur in the future, with disproportionate losses of frugivores, nectarivores and insectivores compared with other species; these species are known to provide important ecosystem services. In the past, South America has been particularly strongly affected, while Southeast Asia will experience the strongest impacts in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting whether the ranges of tropical species will shift to higher elevations in response to climate change requires models that incorporate data on topography and land use. We incorporated temperature gradients and land-cover data from the current ranges of species in a model of range shifts in response to climate change. We tested four possible scenarios of amphibian movement on a tropical mountain: movement upslope through and to land cover suitable for the species; movement upslope to land-cover types that will not sustain survival and reproduction; movement upslope to areas that previously were outside the species' range; and movement upslope to cooler areas within the current range. Areas in the final scenario will become isolated as climate continues to change. In our scenarios more than 30% of the range of 21 of 46 amphibian species in the tropical Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta is likely to become isolated as climate changes. More than 30% of the range of 13 amphibian species would shift to areas that currently are unlikely to sustain survival and reproduction. Combined, over 70% of the current range of seven species would become thermally isolated or shift to areas that currently are unlikely to support survival and reproduction. The constraints on species' movements to higher elevations in response to climate change can increase considerably the number of species threatened by climate change in tropical mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas are leading tools in efforts to slow global species loss and appear also to have a role in climate change policy. Understanding their impacts on deforestation informs environmental policies. We review several approaches to evaluating protection's impact on deforestation, given three hurdles to empirical evaluation, and note that “matching” techniques from economic impact evaluation address those hurdles. The central hurdle derives from the fact that protected areas are distributed nonrandomly across landscapes. Nonrandom location can be intentional, and for good reasons, including biological and political ones. Yet even so, when protected areas are biased in their locations toward less-threatened areas, many methods for impact evaluation will overestimate protection's effect. The use of matching techniques allows one to control for known landscape biases when inferring the impact of protection. Applications of matching have revealed considerably lower impact estimates of forest protection than produced by other methods. A reduction in the estimated impact from existing parks does not suggest, however, that protection is unable to lower clearing. Rather, it indicates the importance of variation across locations in how much impact protection could possibly have on rates of deforestation. Matching, then, bundles improved estimates of the average impact of protection with guidance on where new parks’ impacts will be highest. While many factors will determine where new protected areas will be sited in the future, we claim that the variation across space in protection's impact on deforestation rates should inform site choice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theories suggest that food webs might consist of groups of species forming ‘blocks’, ‘compartments’ or ‘guilds’. We consider ecological networks – subsets of complete food webs – involving species at adjacent trophic levels. Reciprocal specializations occur when (say) a pollinator (or group of pollinators) specializes on a particular flower species (or group of such species) and vice versa. Such specializations tend to group species into guilds. We characterize the level of reciprocal specialization for both antagonistic interactions – particularly parasitoids and their hosts – and mutualistic ones – such as insects and the flowers that they pollinate. We also examine whether trophic patterns might be ‘palimpsests’– that is, there might be reciprocal specialization within taxonomically related species within a network, but these might be obscured when these relationships are combined. Reciprocal specializations are rare in all these systems when tested against the most conservative null model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal movement has been the focus on much theoretical and empirical work in ecology over the last 25 years. By studying the causes and consequences of individual movement, ecologists have gained greater insight into the behavior of individuals and the spatial dynamics of populations at increasingly higher levels of organization. In particular, ecologists have focused on the interaction between individuals and their environment in an effort to understand future impacts from habitat loss and climate change. Tools to examine this interaction have included: fractal analysis, first passage time, Lévy flights, multi-behavioral analysis, hidden markov models, and state-space models. Concurrent with the development of movement models has been an increase in the sophistication and availability of hierarchical bayesian models. In this review we bring these two threads together by using hierarchical structures as a framework for reviewing individual models. We synthesize emerging themes in movement ecology, and propose a new hierarchical model for animal movement that builds on these emerging themes. This model moves away from traditional random walks, and instead focuses inference on how moving animals with complex behavior interact with their landscape and make choices about its suitability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports the authors' effort in providing guidance for managing a recreational fishery for taimen, the giant Eurasian trout in Mongolia. It is reported that the species has declined dramatically across its range of Siberia and Central Asia, and is currently listed as endangered in Mongolia. Through a combination of statistical models, climate data, knowledge of taimen biology and geographical information systems, the authors model taimen spawning dates for potential habitat. They recommend the designation of three fisheries management zones, with opening date recommendations that are less restrictive than existing regulations.

Systematic conservation planning and Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are the two most widely used approaches for identifying important sites for biodiversity. However, there is limited advice for conservation policy makers and practitioners on when and how they should be combined. Here we provide such guidance, using insights from the recently developed Global Standard for the Identification of KBAs and the language of decision science to review and clarify their similarities and differences. We argue the two approaches are broadly similar, with both setting transparent environmental objectives and specifying actions. There is however greater contrast in the data used and actions involved, as the KBA approach uses biodiversity data alone and identifies sites for monitoring and vigilance actions at a minimum, whereas systematic conservation planning combines biodiversity and implementation‐relevant data to guide management actions. This difference means there is much scope for combining approaches, so conservation planners should use KBA data in their analyses, setting context‐specific targets for each KBA type, and planners and donors should use systematic conservation planning techniques when prioritizing between KBAs for management action. In doing so, they will benefit conservation policy, practice and research by building on the collaborations formed through the KBA Standard's development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A letter to the editor is presented in response to the article "Author inflation masks global capacity for species discovery in flowering plants," by D. P. Bebber, J. R. I. Wood, C. Barker, and R. W. Scotland in the 2014 issue.

A letter is presented that discusses the thermal tolerance and condition of upland tropical amphibians amidst the climate change.