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Wildfire activity is increasing globally. The resulting smoke plumes can travel hundreds to thousands of kilometers, reflecting or scattering sunlight and depositing particles within ecosystems. Several key physical, chemical, and biological processes in lakes are controlled by factors affected by smoke. The spatial and temporal scales of lake exposure to smoke are extensive and under‐recognized. We introduce the concept of the lake smoke‐day, or the number of days any given lake is exposed to smoke in any given fire season, and quantify the total lake smoke‐day exposure in North America from 2019 to 2021. Because smoke can be transported at continental to intercontinental scales, even regions that may not typically experience direct burning of landscapes by wildfire are at risk of smoke exposure. We found that 99.3% of North America was covered by smoke, affecting a total of 1,333,687 lakes ≥10 ha. An incredible 98.9% of lakes experienced at least 10 smoke‐days a year, with 89.6% of lakes receiving over 30 lake smoke‐days, and lakes in some regions experiencing up to 4 months of cumulative smoke‐days. Herein we review the mechanisms through which smoke and ash can affect lakes by altering the amount and spectral composition of incoming solar radiation and depositing carbon, nutrients, or toxic compounds that could alter chemical conditions and impact biota. We develop a conceptual framework that synthesizes known and theoretical impacts of smoke on lakes to guide future research. Finally, we identify emerging research priorities that can help us better understand how lakes will be affected by smoke as wildfire activity increases due to climate change and other anthropogenic activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A variety of classification approaches are used to facilitate understanding, prediction, monitoring, and the management of lakes. However, broad‐scale applicability of current approaches is limited by either the need for in situ lake data, incompatibilities among approaches, or a lack of empirical testing of approaches based on ex situ data. We developed a new geographic classification approach for 476,697 lakes ≥ 1 ha in the conterminous U.S. based on lake archetypes representing end members along gradients of multiple geographic features. We identified seven lake archetypes with distinct combinations of climate, hydrologic, geologic, topographic, and morphometric properties. Individual lakes were assigned weights for each of the seven archetypes such that groups of lakes with similar combinations of archetype weights tended to cluster spatially (although not strictly contiguous) and to have similar limnological properties (e.g., concentrations of nutrients, chlorophyll a (Chl a), and dissolved organic carbon). Further, archetype lake classification improved commonly measured limnological relationships (e.g., between nutrients and Chl a) compared to a global model; a discrete archetype classification slightly outperformed an ecoregion classification; and considering lakes as continuous mixtures of archetypes in a more complex model further improved fit. Overall, archetype classification of US lakes as continuous mixtures of geographic features improved understanding and prediction of lake responses to limnological drivers and should help researchers and managers better characterize and forecast lake states and responses to environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite increasing wildfires, few studies have investigated seasonal water quality responses to wildfire characteristics (e.g., burn severity) across a large number of lakes. We monitored 30 total lakes (15 burned, 15 control) monthly following the Greenwood Fire in Minnesota, USA, a lake‐rich region with historically prevalent wildfire. We found increases in median concentrations of total nitrogen (68%), total phosphorus (70%), dissolved organic carbon (127%), total suspended solids (71%), and reduced water clarity (48%) and pH (0.45) in burned lakes. Post‐wildfire responses in drainage lakes were often persistent or cumulative throughout the open‐water season, compared to isolated lakes. Total phosphorus (TP) increased linearly with watershed high‐severity burns, and shoreline high‐severity burns explained more variation in TP than lake morphometry and watershed variables. Post‐wildfire chlorophyll‐a responses were nonsignificant and inconsistent, possibly due to light limitation. Our results suggest that increasing wildfires have significant potential to affect water quality of inland lakes. Plain Language Summary: Despite increasing wildfire activity, there has been limited research on wildfire effects on lakes. We monitored lake water quality throughout summer 2022 following the 2021 Greenwood Fire in Minnesota, USA, a lake‐rich region where wildfire was historically common. We found that lakes with burned watersheds were more nutrient‐ and carbon‐rich and more acidic and murky. Responses often increased throughout the summer, particularly for lakes with tributaries from burned areas. However, murkier water may have prevented increased nutrients from increasing algae abundance. Water quality responses were greater following burns near lake shorelines and of greater severity, reflecting damage to vegetation and soil. Our results suggest that increasing wildfire under climate change may degrade lake water quality. Key Points: We observed post‐wildfire increases in nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, sediments, and acidity and reduced water clarity in lakesWater quality responses were often persistent or cumulative throughout the summer, especially for lakes with tributaries from burned areasHigh‐severity and shoreline burns resulted in a nearly two‐fold increase in total phosphorus concentration compared to control lakes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maintaining regional‐scale freshwater connectivity is challenging due to the dendritic, easily fragmented structure of freshwater networks, but is essential for promoting ecological resilience under climate change. Although the importance of stream network connectivity has been recognized, lake‐stream network connectivity has largely been ignored. Furthermore, protected areas are generally not designed to maintain or encompass entire freshwater networks. We applied a coarse‐filter approach to identify potential freshwater corridors for diverse taxa by calculating connectivity scores for 385 lake‐stream networks across the conterminous United States based on network size, structure, resistance to fragmentation, and dam prevalence. We also identified 2080 disproportionately important lakes for maintaining intact networks (i.e., hubs; 2% of all network lakes) and analyzed the protection status of hubs and potential freshwater corridors. Just 3% of networks received high connectivity scores based on their large size and structure (medians of 1303 lakes, 498.6 km north–south stream distance), but these also contained a median of 454 dams. In contrast, undammed networks (17% of networks) were considerably smaller (medians of six lakes, 7.2 km north–south stream distance), indicating that the functional connectivity of the largest potential freshwater corridors in the conterminous United States currently may be diminished compared with smaller, undammed networks. Network lakes and hubs were protected at similar rates nationally across different levels of protection (8%–18% and 6%–20%, respectively), but were generally more protected in the western United States. Our results indicate that conterminous United States protection of major freshwater corridors and the hubs that maintain them generally fell short of the international conservation goal of protecting an ecologically representative, well‐connected set of fresh waters (≥17%) by 2020 (Aichi Target 11). Conservation planning efforts might consider focusing on restoring natural hydrologic connectivity at or near hubs, particularly in larger networks, less protected, or biodiverse regions, to support freshwater biodiversity conservation under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clear Lake (Lake County, CA, USA) is hypereutrophic and used for drinking water, tribal use, and supports a significant fishing economy. The Mendocino Complex (2018), one of the largest wildfires in California's post‐settlement history, burned 40% of the Clear Lake watershed, providing a timely opportunity to study the impacts of historical and current wildfires on this valuable aquatic resource. Using long‐term monthly monitoring data from 1968 to 2019, paired with historical watershed fire data, we found that for the three largest fire years in the watershed's history, 3‐year postfire median July–October epilimnetic total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were below or equal to 3‐year prefire TP concentrations. However, both median TP epilimnetic concentrations and deepwater temperature across the lake have increased since the late 1960s. Long‐term TP increases were more strongly correlated with monthly maximum air temperatures than precipitation, suggesting a potential role of warming‐induced water column stratification, dissolved oxygen (DO) depletion, and high potential for internal phosphorus loading. Hypoxic occurrences were correlated with higher hypolimnetic soluble reactive phosphorus and TP concentrations, but additional high‐frequency monitoring of DO will help determine the duration of anoxia and its contribution to internal phosphorus loading. These long‐term data suggest that for this large, hypereutrophic lake, wildfires did not significantly alter in‐lake TP concentrations based on long‐term, monthly monitoring and that other internal or external sources of TP may mask any wildfire effects. Nonetheless, our study underscores the value of synthesizing decades of water quality, watershed wildfire, and climate data to build a more comprehensive, nuanced picture of multiple long‐term threats to aquatic ecosystems under global change. Moreover, monitoring and studying fire effects across a wide range of lake types beyond this study will help promote more effective lake management during changing climates and increasingly frequent large wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near‐term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state‐space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin‐producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata. We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near‐term (1‐ to 4‐week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4‐week forecast horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1‐week‐ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long‐term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite wide recognition of the importance of anthropogenically driven changes in large herbivore communities—including both declines in wildlife and increases in livestock—there remain large gaps in our knowledge about the impacts of these changes on plant communities, particularly when combined with concurrent changes in climate. Considering these prominent forms of global change in tandem enables us to better understand controls on savanna vegetation structure and diversity under real‐world conditions.We conducted a field experiment using complete and semi‐permeable herbivore exclosures to explore the difference in plant communities among sites with wild herbivores only, with cattle in addition to wild herbivores, and with no large herbivores. To understand variation in effects across climatic contexts, the experiment was replicated at three locations along a topoclimatic gradient in California. Critically, this is the first such experiment to compare cattle and wildlife impacts along an environmental gradient within a single controlled experiment.Vegetation structure responded strongly to herbivore treatment regardless of climate. Relative to the isolated effects of wildlife, exclusion of all large herbivores generally increased structural components related to cover and above‐ground biomass while the addition of cattle led to reductions in vegetation cover, litter, shading and standing biomass. Furthermore, wildlife had a consistent neutral or positive effect on plant diversity, while the effect of livestock addition was context dependent. Cattle had a neutral to strongly negative effect at low aridity, but a positive effect at high aridity. These results suggest that (a) herbivore effects can override climate effects on vegetation structure, (b) cattle addition can drive different effects on diversity and (c) herbivore effects on diversity are modulated by climate.Synthesis. Our results illustrate very distinctive shifts in plant communities between two realistic forms of change in ungulate herbivore assemblages—livestock addition and large herbivore losses—particularly for plant diversity responses, and that these responses vary across climatic contexts. This finding has important implications for the management and protection of plant biodiversity given that over a quarter of the Earth's land area is managed for livestock and climate regimes are changing globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Depth is a fundamental property of lakes, essential for understanding and quantifying a range of biological, chemical, and physical processes of individual lakes as well as the collective functioning of the millions of lakes across the globe. Despite this importance, lake depth is rarely available for large numbers of lakes across the broad scales of regions and continents. We describe a new open‐access dataset, LAGOS‐US DEPTH, which contains 17,675 maximum depths and 6,137 mean depths for lakes in the conterminous United States. These data represent one of the largest compilations of lake depths in the world and are connected to other data products through the LAGOS‐US research platform. Here, we describe characteristics of lake maximum depth across the conterminous United States and identify gaps in data coverage that we encourage other researchers to fill by linking their own depth datasets for lakes within the LAGOS‐US spatial footprint. Extending this open‐access effort to include other regions and countries across the globe to build a more comprehensive and representative database of lake depth would better position scientists to quantify and articulate the critical roles that lakes play globally in biogeochemical cycling, maintaining biodiversity, and in maintaining the many ecosystem services that lakes provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Macroscale studies of aquatic ecosystems are needed to address many contemporary broad‐scale problems related to global change, particularly to inform national‐scale environmental policies. In this data paper, we fill two important gaps in data availability for lakes at the scale of the conterminous U.S., the lack of: (1) high‐resolution geographic representations of lakes and their watersheds and (2) an open data platform to connect disparate U.S. national‐scale lake datasets. We describe the LAGOS‐US LOCUS v1.0 data module that includes a detailed User Guide, which is part of the LAGOS‐US extensible research‐ready open data platform. This platform can be used to study the 479,950 lakes and reservoirs larger than or equal to 1 ha across the entire conterminous U.S. at multiple scales of space and time. The LOCUS module includes spatially‐explicit information on lakes and their watersheds, including location information, physical characteristics, and identifiers of other important national‐scale datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although ecosystems respond to global change at regional to continental scales (i.e., macroscales), model predictions of ecosystem responses often rely on data from targeted monitoring of a small proportion of sampled ecosystems within a particular geographic area. In this study, we examined how the sampling strategy used to collect data for such models influences predictive performance. We subsampled a large and spatially extensive data set to investigate how macroscale sampling strategy affects prediction of ecosystem characteristics in 6,784 lakes across a 1.8‐million‐km2 area. We estimated model predictive performance for different subsets of the data set to mimic three common sampling strategies for collecting observations of ecosystem characteristics: random sampling design, stratified random sampling design, and targeted sampling. We found that sampling strategy influenced model predictive performance such that (1) stratified random sampling designs did not improve predictive performance compared to simple random sampling designs and (2) although one of the scenarios that mimicked targeted (non‐random) sampling had the poorest performing predictive models, the other targeted sampling scenarios resulted in models with similar predictive performance to that of the random sampling scenarios. Our results suggest that although potential biases in data sets from some forms of targeted sampling may limit predictive performance, compiling existing spatially extensive data sets can result in models with good predictive performance that may inform a wide range of science questions and policy goals related to global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological research increasingly relies on broad‐scale databases containing information collected by personnel from a variety of sources, including government agencies, universities, and citizen‐science programs. However, the contribution of citizen‐science programs to these databases is not well known. We analyzed one such database to quantify the contribution of citizen science to lake water‐quality data from seven US states. Citizen‐science programs not only provided over half of the observations for commonly sampled water‐quality measures (water clarity, nutrients, and algal biomass) from the past 31 years, but also contributed to the majority of long‐term monitoring (>15 years) for selected measures in lakes. While previous studies have demonstrated the usefulness of citizen science for research, management, policy, and public engagement, our study demonstrates that citizen science can also make valuable contributions to populating broad‐scale ecological databases. Strengthening partnerships between citizen‐science programs and monitoring agencies can help maintain and expand spatial and temporal data coverage during the "big data" era of ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Convention on Biological Diversity (https://www.cbd.int/) recommends globally protecting ≥ 17% of ecologically representative freshwaters by 2020 to sustain critical ecosystem services and rapidly declining freshwater biodiversity. We examined whether current conservation efforts meet this target for lakes (≥ 1 ha) across the continental U.S. and Environmental Protection Agency ecoregions using the U.S. Protected Areas Database. How one defines lake protection matters: 17.8% of lakes fell within multiuse or strictly protected areas, but only 7.5% of lakes had ≥ 80% of their catchments in strictly protected areas. Protected lakes occurred disproportionately in the lake‐poor western U.S. and most lake‐rich regions fell short of the 17% target. Lakes connected to streams and other lakes were disproportionately protected relative to headwater and isolated lakes, which are important for ecosystem services and biodiversity. Meeting conservation targets requires protecting thousands of additional U.S. lakes and catchments across more diverse ecological settings and explicitly considering connectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) theory has largely focused on species richness, although studies have demonstrated that evenness may have stronger effects. While theory and numerous small‐scale studies support positive BEF relationships, regional studies have documented negative effects of evenness on ecosystem functioning. We analysed a lake dataset spanning the continental US to evaluate whether strong evenness effects are common at broad spatial scales and if BEF relationships are similar across diverse regions and trophic levels. At the continental scale, phytoplankton evenness explained more variance in phytoplankton and zooplankton resource use efficiency (RUE; ratio of biomass to resources) than richness. For individual regions, slopes of phytoplankton evenness–RUE relationships were consistently negative and positive for phytoplankton and zooplankton RUE, respectively, and most slopes did not significantly differ among regions. Findings suggest that negative evenness effects may be more common than previously documented and are not exceptions restricted to highly disturbed systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires are becoming larger and more frequent across much of the United States due to anthropogenic climate change. No studies, however, have assessed fire prevalence in lake watersheds at broad spatial and temporal scales, and thus it is unknown whether wildfires threaten lakes and reservoirs (hereafter, lakes) of the United States. We show that fire activity has increased in lake watersheds across the continental United States from 1984 to 2015, particularly since 2005. Lakes have experienced the greatest fire activity in the western United States, Southern Great Plains, and Florida. Despite over 30 years of increasing fire exposure, fire effects on fresh waters have not been well studied; previous research has generally focused on streams, and most of the limited lake‐fire research has been conducted in boreal landscapes. We therefore propose a conceptual model of how fire may influence the physical, chemical, and biological properties of lake ecosystems by synthesizing the best available science from terrestrial, aquatic, fire, and landscape ecology. This model also highlights emerging research priorities and provides a starting point to help land and lake managers anticipate potential effects of fire on ecosystem services provided by fresh waters and their watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]