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Social media is transforming how politicians communicate with the public, empowering elected officials to immediately reach target audiences. Scholars of the U.S. presidency in particular credit former President Donald Trump with revolutionizing the White House bully pulpit through his use of Twitter. Trump's bullying of the Federal Reserve and Fed Chair Jerome Powell for ever lower interest rates stands out amidst his often norm‐defying social media campaigns. Such attacks broke from recent practice: Trump's immediate predecessors largely refrained from telling the central bank what to do. What drove Trump's pressure campaign against the Fed? In this note, we identify and tally Trump's attacks, explore dynamics shaping his appeals, and demonstrate that financial headwinds—more so than economic or political barometers—reliably incited Trump to pressure the Fed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monetary policy can directly impact corporate R&D investment, and it can also be achieved through loan term structure indirectly. This study examines the relationship between macro‐level monetary policy and micro‐level corporate R&D investment from the perspective of loan term structure using data from A‐share listed companies in China from 2007 to 2018. The study has three major findings: (i) There is a positive correlation between monetary policy easing and corporate R&D investment. (ii) From the perspective of the loan term structure, when monetary policy tightens, changes in the loan term structure may discourage corporate R&D activities, which is more pronounced for non‐state‐owned, high‐tech and growth‐stage companies. The effect of unconventional monetary policy is greater than that of conventional monetary policy in the period of severe economic shock, and monetary policy has a clear asymmetric effect that is greater when it is tight than when it is accommodative. (iii) Through survival analysis, it is found that tight monetary policy is not conducive to prolonging the duration of enterprises' R&D investment. Based on these findings, the study presents recommendations that provide a reference for the government to implement macro‐control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines estimates of, and drivers for, the sacrifice ratio, defined as the cumulative sum of foregone annualised output accruing from a disinflation of one percentage point. Three approaches are employed. The first reviews the literature on what sacrifice ratio might be expected. The second studies a generic disinflation experiment using 40 estimated macro models of the U.S. economy, calculating a distribution of sacrifice ratios. Those sacrifice ratios are high by historical standards and the paper discusses some stories for why this is so. The role of expectations formation and the credibility of policy is emphasised. The third approach investigates more closely some drivers of the output cost of disinflation by carrying out a selection of disinflation experiments using the FRB/US model, varying certain characteristics of the model's expectations formation mechanism. Pinning down a precise measure for the output cost of disinflation is challenging. However, the literature and policy experiments do offer some guidance on how the sacrifice ratio can be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) uses interest rates to control inflation. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model can contribute to inflation targeting objective and also determine the effects on banks and the economy. We improved the accuracy of the results from previous work on the banking sector CGE model by estimating the elasticities of the reduced form equations of the model instead of arbitrarily choosing them. Our results conform with the established view that lower policy rates lead to an increase in inflation and a reduction in banks' profits. However, because of the adverse supply shocks arising from the effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic, the increase in the GDP is crowded out. The CGE model is a useful tool for the SARB for monetary policy implications on financial stability, informing and providing analysis on its repo rate decision, and determining the consequent effects on the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study examines the comparative impact of governance quality on the dynamic relationship between monetary policy rate, saving, and economic growth in emerging economies in sub‐Saharan African countries from 2005Q1 to 2022Q4. Using the Toda‐Yamamoto (TY) model, we found that governance quality influence on monetary policy rate is negative with adverse effect on investment‐growth while exerting positive influence on savings‐growth nexus in Nigeria but the contribution is quite appreciative and can be leverage on. Governance quality exert negative influence on monetary policy rate but with positive direction from investment and savings to growth in Egypt. The magnitude of the monetary policy rate, savings, investment is quite negligible in Egypt. For South Africa, governance quality exerts positive influence on monetary policy rate but failed to translate to positive effect on investment, savings to growth in South Africa. Although, the contribution of monetary policy rate, savings, investment to growth is significant in South Africa. Thus, enhancing institutional development to foster a more effective financial incentive system and seamless policy transmission is crucial to address the impact of governance quality on monetary policy outcomes and enable better macroeconomic interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to show the response of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to monetary policy (represented by money supply and interest rate) and fiscal policy (represented by tax revenues) in Nigeria during the period (1990–2021). The autoregressive distributed lag approach is employed to estimate long‐run relationship among variables. The results indicate that there is cointegrating long‐run relationship among the study variables. The study provides empirical evidence showing that an increase in the percentage of money supply to gross domestic product (GDP) by (0.971%) leads to a decrease in the percentage of FDI inflows to GDP by (0.975%), an increase in the percentage of tax revenues to GDP by (4.256%) leads to a decrease in the percentage of FDI inflows to GDP by (0.975%), an increase in interest rate by (1.164%) leads to decrease in the percentage of FDI inflows to GDP by (0.975%), and an increase in inflation rate by (0.329%) leads to increase in the percentage of FDI inflows to GDP by (0.905%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic policy games feature a wide range of equilibria. This paper provides a methodology for obtaining robust predictions. We focus on a model of sovereign debt, although our methodology applies to other settings, such as models of monetary policy or capital taxation. Our main result is a characterization of distributions over outcomes that are consistent with a subgame perfect equilibrium conditional on the observed history. We illustrate our main result by computing—conditional on an observed history—bounds across all equilibria on the maximum probability of a crisis: means, variances, and covariances over debt prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focusing on a sample of euro area commercial banks, we investigate the evolution of the asset‐liability dependency over the years 2013–2021, characterized by the introduction of monetary, supervisory and institutional policy measures that shaped a business environment never experienced before. We find that large banks show a stronger asset‐liability dependency than small banks, and that the linkages between the two sides of the balance sheet experience a general upward trend over time for both groups of intermediaries. We report evidence of the presence of two transmission channels of the unconventional monetary policy, namely, the direct pass‐through and the portfolio rebalancing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model, a popular Bayesian algorithm for text analysis. We show that the model's parameters are not identified, which suggests that the choice of prior matters. We characterize the range of values that the posterior mean of a given functional of the model's parameters can attain in response to a change in the prior, and we suggest two algorithms that report this range. Both of our algorithms rely on obtaining multiple Nonnegative Matrix Factorizations of either the posterior draws of the corpus' population term‐document frequency matrix or of its maximum likelihood estimator. The key idea is to maximize/minimize the functional of interest over all these nonnegative matrix factorizations. To illustrate the applicability of our results, we revisit recent work studying the effects of increased transparency on the communication structure of monetary policy discussions in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In this article, the relationship between international reserves and monetary autonomy in 21 emerging countries during the period 1999–2019 is investigated. Using a nonlinear panel analysis, we find that international reserves begin to have a positive effect on monetary autonomy when the ratio of international reserves to GDP is around 22%–23%. This result implies that the levels of international reserves are not necessarily excessive in most emerging countries and appear appropriate for supporting their monetary autonomy. Above this threshold, we also identify that the exchange rate regime and financial liberalization are no longer constraints for monetary autonomy. This result suggests a partial validity of the trilemma in emerging countries, with that validity depending on the level of international reserves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the issue of trilemma versus dilemma in relation to monetary autonomy. We construct a long‐term interest rate independence index (LRI) apart from the conventional monetary policy independence evaluated on the basis of the short‐term interest rate independence index (SRI). LRI intends to capture the independence of domestic financial conditions and the monetary policy in a broad sense. Empirical results are as follows. On the basis of SRI, trilemma holds well, in which trade‐offs between SRI and international capital mobility and between SRI and exchange rate stability are found. This outcome is consistent with the findings of many past studies that support trilemma. However, on the basis of LRI, dilemma holds after the global financial crisis because only the trade‐off between LRI and international capital mobility exists. This result is consistent with the conclusion of Rey (2013), which emphasized the huge effects of the global financial cycle on the domestic financial condition owing to the integration of international financial markets. Empirical results settle the issue between trilemma and dilemma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on consumer prices in the United Kingdom. We estimate a proxy Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, using extended high‐frequency monetary surprises from Cesa‐Bianchi et al. (European Economic Review, 123, 2020, 103375) to instrument shifts in UK monetary policy. We then analyze the impulse responses for various components of the UK Consumer Price Index. Our findings reveal that while monetary policy tightening leads to a persistent decline in aggregate consumer prices, the impact on disaggregated components is highly heterogeneous. Notably, we observe that energy price changes offset movements in food, beverage, and tobacco prices, resulting in identical responses of core and headline consumer CPIH inflation measures. The contrasting effects across different CPI components highlight the importance of examining disaggregated data when assessing the transmission of monetary policy to consumer prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article "World Economic Prospects Monthly | Global" analyzes the potential effects of Donald Trump's presidency and Republican control of Congress on the global economy. It discusses slight adjustments to global GDP forecasts due to fiscal stimulus in the US and China, as well as the impact of US tariffs on global trade. The document also delves into the importance of fiscal and monetary policies in influencing economic growth, offering insights into the short-term outlook for the US and China. Additionally, it covers various economic forecasts and recent developments in different regions, such as housing inventory digestion in China, challenges in the Eurozone, the UK budget's effects, and emerging markets' growth prospects. Policymakers in China are working on reducing housing market inventory, while the Eurozone faces new risks. The UK budget has mixed impacts, and emerging markets are anticipated to see minimal repercussions from the US election. India's growth forecast has been adjusted downward, while Latin America might encounter financial market turbulence. ASEAN's growth is projected to remain robust, and South Africa's demand and inflation outlook have improved. [Extracted from the article]

The federal funds target rate is commonly considered to be an important indicator of the state of the US economy and is of keen interest to individual investors, financial firms, and other economic agents. In this paper, we focus on the discrete changes in the federal funds target rate during the period from January 1994 to June 2022 and apply the ordinal forest model, a random forest‐based prediction method for ordinal response variable. We examine the model's performance with 45 predictor variables which include macroeconomic and financial variables as well as forward‐looking survey measures. For an accurate and honest measure of the model performance, we employ single‐period‐ahead out‐of‐sample forecasting accuracy instead of evaluating the in‐sample fit. Our empirical results show the ordinal forest method significantly outperforms a benchmark that uses the most recent data among previous studies on federal funds target rate. We find that TB spread is the most informative from a forecasting perspective along with GDP, initial jobless claims, and survey measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This study analyses and compares the determinants of inflation expectations among households and professional forecasters in India. To this end, we utilize quarterly survey data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), specifically the Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) and the Professional Forecasters’ Survey (SPF). The analysis employs a non‐recursive structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to explore the relationships between variables. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis shed light on the response of inflation expectations to macroeconomic shocks. Our findings indicate that apart from conventional macroeconomic factors like realized inflation and monetary policy, exogenous factors such as oil prices significantly shape inflation expectations. Comparing IESH and SPF, we found out that household expectations are more sensitive to shocks related to food prices, reflecting the influence of food expenses on household decision‐making. Conversely, professional forecasters’ expectations are more influenced by core inflation. Finally, we observed that inflation expectations adjust more quickly than realized inflation in response to macroeconomic shocks, suggesting a leading role. This study is novel with the contribution to the existing literature as it provides a comparative analysis of determinants of inflation expectations between households and professional forecasters in India, while also considering inflation targeting as a significant factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agents' beliefs regarding future monetary policy changes influence their current decisions. However, these expectations may not always materialize in the future. This study shows that the monetary fundamental shocks (exogenous changes consistent with expectations) stabilize output and inflation, while the noise shocks (biased beliefs that fail to be realized in the future) increase economic fluctuations. Moreover, factors that amplify financial frictions—the spread between the capital return of entrepreneurs and the risk‐free interest rate of a central bank—can increase anticipation effects associated with these two types of monetary policy shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central banks set the nominal interest rate to target inflation and stabilize output. In monetary models, monetary policy affects output directly via the wealth effect. I show that in these models, the response of the central bank to fluctuations in output may induce real indeterminacy even if the Taylor principle is satisfied. I find that the determinacy conditions depend on the interest elasticity of output and generally, the Taylor principle is neither necessary nor sufficient for determinacy. This is in stark contrast with the New Keynesian model where a sufficiently strong policy response to inflation or output usually ensures determinacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of domestic monetary policy on capital flows after controlling for the effect of conventional push factors (global factors). We conduct a time‐varying coefficient vector autoregressive (TVC‐VAR) model analysis using monthly data (January 2010–July 2019) from Korea. Our empirical results show that an expansionary monetary policy shock has a short‐run (1‐ and 3‐month) negative impact on gross inflows to the equity market, which is the main driver of gross capital inflows to Korea. This negative effect increases throughout the sample period. Monetary policy easing is also associated with a decrease in outflows of equity, representing a reversal of Korean residents' foreign equity investment as the domestic policy rate decreases. This effect dampens the negative impact on gross capital inflows, which leads to mild responses of net capital inflows in the short run. We also find a clear relationship between the level of the policy rate and its impact on gross capital inflows. The lower the policy rate, the greater the negative impact of the expansionary monetary policy shock on gross capital inflows. This time‐varying effect reflects difficulties that many emerging market economies, including Korea, face in setting monetary policy when policy rates are low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on asset return correlations is critical to assessing such policies' impact across financial markets. In this paper, we use a dynamic conditional correlation model that allows us to measure the impact of unconventional monetary policy on time‐varying correlations. Our results suggest that QE significantly affected correlations between stocks and bonds after the Great Recession via short‐term portfolio balance effects. The findings are critical for policy‐makers and practitioners alike. Central banks should consider the impact of monetary policy on asset correlations in their cost–benefit analyses. Likewise, portfolio managers are encouraged to factor in the effects of monetary policy on correlations to optimize portfolios and reduce potential losses strategically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The debate on whether central banks should consider climate change risks in their mandate could reach some informed consensus given it is explicit how monetary policy, directly and indirectly, interacts with environmental sustainability. To unriddle this issue, we touch upon a novel perspective by exploring how monetary policy moderates the influence of economic complexity and technological innovation on energy productivity and carbon productivity in the presence of the labour force participation ratio, trade openness, financial inclusion, and GDP. Our study builds upon the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) structure, considering the Group of Seven (G7) countries as the analytical laboratory over the 1995–2019 period. The principal outcomes based on the novel Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) are as follows: A higher level of economic complexity is associated with enhanced environmental sustainability. In addition, technological innovation is beneficial to environmental sustainability, especially across countries reporting moderate levels of environmental sustainability. Considering the direct impact, contractionary monetary policy deteriorates environmental sustainability, while expansionary monetary policy promotes it for green central banking in place. Regarding the moderating impacts, expansionary monetary policy is unveiled to manifest beneficial environmental impacts of economic complexity and technological innovation, provided that inflationary pressures remain under control. Based on our findings, it is recommended to formulate a monetary policy inclusive of climate‐related risks to capitalize on the environmentally favourable impacts of economic complexity and technological innovation. Finally, the monetary expansions keeping the inflationary pressures under control would benefit environmental sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the persistence in Turkish interest and inflation rates since the implementation of inflation‐targeting monetary policy, covering the period from January 2006 to July 2022. We focus on accounting for asymmetric persistence by benefiting from recent developments in quantile unit root analysis. The findings indicate that while the conventional unit root tests support the persistence of shocks to interest rates and inflation, the quantile unit root test demonstrates an asymmetric behaviour of the persistence, implying a time‐varying structure with mean reversion (persistency) of the shocks in low (high) inflation periods. Furthermore, the half‐lives increase with the positive shocks, indicating a longer speed of adjustment in the high inflation regime. These findings provide new insights into the relationship between interest rates and inflation and have sound policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We utilise a standard reduced‐form neo‐Keynesian model in a monetary union, in which the monetary authority and the fiscal authorities strategically interact, to explore who, under alternative institutional arrangements (strategic and fiscal regimes) and shocks' configurations, bears the burden of asymmetric shocks' stabilisation. We show that in the core/periphery fiscal regime, described by an asymmetry in the sequence of moves between the core and the peripheral member‐states, asymmetric shocks pass through at the union level to the inflation rate and the output gap when there are strategically significant spill‐over effects and the monetary policy's and fiscal policies' instruments are not perfect substitutes in the stabilisation process. The monetary authority reacts to asymmetric shocks, but does not succeed in fully offsetting them. The first best implies the coordination of fiscal policies. A second best embraces the fiscal leadership strategic regime (as a form of implicit coordination), when there are strong interconnections in the union, or the use of policy instruments by the fiscal authorities that directly decrease inflation when fiscal policy is expansionary, such as taxes, production subsidies or public investment, when there is a strong cost channel of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We intend to show the directional volatility spillovers between the European short term interbank lending rates (3‐month Euro Interbank Offered Rate [EURIBOR] and Euro Short‐Term Rate [ESTR]) and the Hungarian Budapest Interbank Offered Rate (BUBOR) and Euro‐Hungarian Forint exchange rate. To determine the extent to which the variables affect each other's volatilities we build a five‐variable vector autoregression (VAR) and determine the spillover table like in Diebold‐Yilmaz's 2012 work. This methodology is preferred to a simple impulse response function (IRF) because we manage to avoid the problem of non‐orthogonal innovations via the generalized forecast error variance decomposition framework. The issue of variable ordering, therefore, does not arise. We focus on three episodes of increased volatility in Hungarian and European short‐term interest rates: Q3–Q4 of 2019, Q1 of 2020 and Q3 of 2022. These episodes correspond to volatility spikes in EU markets that to some extent had a measurable spillover effect on Hungarian interbank rates. We find that on average, across the entire sample of 957 observations, about 6.3% of the volatility forecast error variance in all five European and Hungarian variables comes from spillovers. The total and directional spillovers over the sample are extremely low. We conclude that the European Central Bank's surprise policy decisions have a marginal impact on Hungarian interbank rates. We also find that BUBOR is primarily a net receiver of spillovers from the MAX short‐term government bond benchmark rather than the EURIBOR—this disproved our initial considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using high‐frequency identification, we provide evidence that Fed communication surprises have larger macroeconomic effects than surprise actions. Three ingredients are central to show this: structurally distinguishing between Fed actions and communication, controlling for the Fed information effect, and including the surprise measures directly in a vector autoregression (VAR) system instead of using them as instruments. We also compare the macroeconomic effects of Fed communication surprises relating to varying horizons into the future. Fed communication with a two‐year horizon appears most powerful during the effective lower‐bound period, consistent with theoretical predictions regarding Fed forward guidance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the conduct of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in Nigeria under the assumption of a rent‐seeking government. To answer this question, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model featuring a rent‐seeking fiscal authority is calibrated. The study also conducted a sensitivity analysis to compare the welfare effect of optimal simple policy rules under a corrupt versus benevolent regime. The results from the study showed that optimal monetary policy should target the double mandate of price and output stabilization when the government is a rent‐seeker. The study also found that it is optimal for the Central Bank to commit to an active monetary stance. The optimal fiscal policy rule in a rent‐seeking economy is passive and pro‐cyclical. Furthermore, welfare is negligibly better off in the benevolent economy. From a policy perspective, rent‐seeking activities are triggered by the proportion of rent‐seeking agents. This induces inefficiencies in government spending, which constrains growth in a developing economy. Furthermore, rent‐seeking can "coerce" the Central Bank of Nigeria to focus on a double mandate to stabilize both prices and output. Therefore, it is desirable for the monetary authority to possess due independence in controlling prices without interference from the fiscal authority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We ask how fiscal deficits are financed in environments with two key features: (i) nominal rigidity, and (ii) a violation of Ricardian equivalence due to finite lives or liquidity constraints. In such environments, deficits can contribute to their own financing through two channels: a boom in real economic activity, which expands the tax base; and a surge in inflation, which erodes the real value of nominal government debt. Our main theoretical result establishes that this mechanism becomes more potent as fiscal adjustment is delayed, leading to full self‐financing in the limit: if the monetary authority does not lean too heavily against the fiscal stimulus, then the government can run a deficit today, refrain from tax hikes or spending cuts in the future, and still see its debt converge back to its initial level. We further demonstrate that a significant degree of self‐financing is achievable when the theory is disciplined by empirical evidence on marginal propensities to consume, nominal rigidities, the monetary policy reaction, and the speed of fiscal adjustment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central banks wish to avoid self‐fulfilling fluctuations. Interest rate rules with a unit response to real rates achieve this under the weakest possible assumptions about the behavior of households and firms. They are robust to household heterogeneity, hand‐to‐mouth consumers, non‐rational household or firm expectations, active fiscal policy, and to any form of intertemporal or nominal‐real links. They are easy to employ in practice, using inflation‐protected bonds to infer real rates. With a time‐varying short‐term inflation target, they can implement an arbitrary inflation path, including optimal policy. This provides a way to translate policy makers' desired path for inflation into one for nominal rates. U.S. Federal Reserve behavior is remarkably close to that predicted by a real rate rule, given the desired inflation path of U.S. monetary policy makers. Real rate rules work thanks to the key role played by the Fisher equation in monetary transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents further empirical support for the finding that the impact of inflation and that of policy instruments to manage inflation are not distributed equally across households of different income groups. In particular, the evidence using South African data suggests that monetary policy tightening, which seeks to maintain low and stable inflation, has a relatively modest effect on real consumption of poorer households, who tend to rely on government grants and spend larger shares of income on food stuff, while the reduction in real consumption of wealthier households is much larger. This may be due to the fact that low and stable inflation help maintain the value of government grants and cap food prices both in real terms, and higher interest rates reduce labour income, weaken asset price performance and increase debt service cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We derive a new theoretical model of money demand, which reflects backward‐ and forward‐looking preferences in consumption and utility. The former aspect is captured by standard habit formation, and the latter by anticipation of future consumption preferences. By introducing both of these into the Ramsey–Sidrauski framework, we unveil a new highly general model of money demand. We discuss the model in light of the apparent breakdown of money‐demand functions and diminished policy relevance of monetary aggregates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia, like many other countries, experienced an unexpected surge in inflation following the COVID‐19 pandemic. This has renewed interest in the Phillips curve because of its important implications for monetary policy. We estimate the price Phillips curve in the post‐inflation targeting period using the most recent state‐level data. Identification relies on variation in regional demand that policymakers do not aim to stabilize. After controlling for cost‐push shocks and equilibrium unemployment, we obtain a modest slope of the Phillips curve and, more importantly, we do not find any steepening of the Phillips curve in the post‐COVID period. Without correct identification, the post‐COVID Phillips curve would be steeper as documented for other countries including the United States. We also find that the slope gradually decreases with the level of unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, I argue that shifts in the natural rate of interest provide important insights for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The deviation of the real interest rate from the natural interest rate (interest rate gap) captures the monetary policy stance, which is important for the dynamics of inflation and the output gap in the wake of persistent and permanent variation in the natural rate of interest. I present the evolution of the estimates of the Taylor‐rule consistent‐ natural interest rate, and thus the associated path of the expectations of future inflation via the Fisherian relationship. The path of these two variables has implications for estimation of the NKPC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The key purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between inflation and output dynamics in a global macroeconomic framework by utilising time‐series data from Pakistan and thirty‐two trading partners which account for around 95 per cent of foreign trade of Pakistan, over the period 1979Q2–2016Q4. By featuring the GVAR approach, this paper empirically examined the international linkages to account for cross‐country inflationary spillovers. The findings show that both foreign and global variables jointly and significantly matter for the inflation‐output relationship in developing economies, in general and, in particular, in the economy of Pakistan. The findings from general impulse response functions (GIRF) reveal that shocks to the US real output, oil prices and food prices are transmitted and settled quickly, and put forward a significant impact on real GDP and inflation in Pakistan and its trading partner economies. Inflation in Pakistan is driven more strongly by the global changes in oil and food prices than GDP. For monetary policy formulation, the central bank should take into account developments in inflation‐output dynamics of Pakistan's major trading partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While pro‐market economic institutions are a strong and causal predictor of economic development, such institutions are not expected to have the same impact across countries. Furthermore, there are actually a few instances where countries that enacted market‐friendly reforms had negative economic growth soon after. Examining 49 cases of large and sustained increases in economic freedom over a five year window, we find 10 cases that were followed by low/negative economic growth thereafter. We consider various potential determinants of failed reforms by comparing different measures between the successful and failed reforming countries. Our strongest evidence points to the following as plausible reasons for failed reforms: culture (high levels of power distance, low levels of individualism, and low levels of generalized trust), areas of economic freedom that countries reformed (less focus on sound monetary policy, more focus on limiting the size of government, and more variance between the five areas), and autocratic political institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper evaluates the impact of quantitative easing on income and wealth of individual euro area households. We first estimate the aggregate effects of a quantitative easing (QE) shock, identified by means of external instruments, in a multi‐country vector autoregression (VAR) model with unemployment, wages, gross operating surplus, interest rates, house prices, and stock prices. We then distribute the aggregate effects across households using a reduced‐form simulation on micro‐data, which captures the portfolio composition, the income composition, and the earnings heterogeneity channels of transmission. The earnings heterogeneity channel is important: QE compresses the income distribution because many households with lower incomes become employed. In contrast, monetary policy has only negligible effects on the Gini coefficient for wealth: While high‐wealth households benefit from higher stock prices, middle‐wealth households benefit from higher house prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper extends the discussion on the effects of the two distinctive monetary surprises in the literature. First, we show that the proxy of conventional monetary shock Granger causes the endogenous variables in the vector autoregressive model. Second, we provide evidence that the existing model can be exposed to a weak instrument problem. With our alternative model mitigating these concerns, the second monetary shock can be interpreted as unconventional monetary news in general. The estimation results show contractionary effect of the unconventional policy. We find increases in output after a positive conventional monetary surprise, suggesting an important Fed's information effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The public sectors in many developing countries receive capital inflows from advanced countries. Notably, we show that higher levels of foreign borrowing play an important role in promoting economic activity in developing countries by relieving crowding out problems from local sovereign debt. Moreover, in comparison to previous contributions, we also show how participation affects economic activity in advanced countries. Using a micro‐founded two‐country model of money and banking, we show that there are crowding‐out effects in high income economies when the advanced country funds official foreign debt. Moreover, we find that there are significant implications for the effects of monetary policy when banks in the developed world hold more official foreign debt. In addition, the typical destructive effects of money growth in developing countries are weaker in the presence of higher levels of international borrowing. By comparison, the effects of monetary stimulus in the advanced country become more pronounced as banks hold more foreign bonds. Our analysis concludes by looking at optimal debt policy. Interestingly, the results suggest that developing countries should limit their reliance on foreign capital inflows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risks and global supply chain pressures on global inflation for the monthly period of 1999M1–2022M12. The investigation is based on a structural vector autoregression model, where the effects of global oil prices and global monetary policy are controlled for. Four alternative measures of inflation are used, including headline, core, food, and energy inflation. The empirical results show that disruptions in global supply chains are the main drivers of global inflation in the long run as the corresponding shocks explain the lion's share of volatilities in headline inflation (by 32%), core inflation (by 30%), and food inflation (by 22%), followed by oil price shocks and policy rate shocks. In comparison, energy inflation is explained the most by oil price shocks (by 55%) followed by supply chain shocks and policy rate shocks. Positive supply chain pressure and oil price shocks have positive and statistically significant effects on headline inflation even after five years, whereas positive policy rate shocks have negative and statistically significant effects on headline inflation in the long run. In contrast, positive shocks to geopolitical risk result in higher headline inflation only up to one year, with insignificant effects in the long run. Several policy implications follow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the currency risk premium and the forward premium bias in a two‐country New Keynesian model with production, no physical capital, and recursive utility. Monetary policy follows an interest rate feedback rule and exogenous total factor productivity (TFP) growth follows a long‐run risk process with stochastic volatility, which we estimate from data. With cross‐country heterogeneity in TFP and monetary policy, reasonable currency risk premia emerge under complete and incomplete markets but the forward premium bias is trivial. We diagnose the challenge faced by this fairly standard production model to explain the forward premium bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With climate change increasing the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, what should central banks do in response to these catastrophic events? Looking at IMF reports for 34 disaster‐years, which occurred in 16 disaster‐prone countries from 1999 to 2017, reveals lack of any systematic approach adopted by monetary authorities in response to climate shocks. Using a small‐open‐economy New‐Keynesian model with disaster shocks, we show that consistent with textbook theory, inflation targeting remains the welfare‐optimal regime. Therefore, the best strategy for monetary authorities is to resist the impulse of accommodating in response to catastrophic natural disasters, and focus on price stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The resurgence of inflation has been accompanied by a reversal of prospects of growth, with a prominent role assigned to the fall of households' purchasing power. Yet this real income effect of inflation surprises, independent of restrictive monetary policy, is not present in the standard New Keynesian models for monetary policy. The reason lies in the formulation of the consumption‐based "IS equation". The paper shows how the income effect can be introduced by reformulating the consumption function, with the consequence that it exerts an autonomus stabilization effect on inflation. The main monetary policy implications are examined by means of simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do capital controls and banking concentration affect economic development? This paper develops a general equilibrium model to study these important issues. To do so, we construct a framework with heterogeneous agents and imperfectly competitive financial intermediaries who help depositors manage liquidity risk. Importantly, higher levels of concentration raise the cost of domestic borrowing which increase the reliance on international capital markets. Finally, once the rate of money growth is sufficiently high, capital controls bind and the effects of monetary policy on capital formation are more pronounced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central bank independence (CBI) has been widely advocated as a means to address the time‐inconsistency problem of controlling inflation. Consequently, many countries have embraced central bank reforms since the 1990s. While extant research in political science has sought to unveil the consequences of CBI, there remains an unexplained variation in the response of countries with regard to capital account openness. Notably, a positive association exists between CBI and capital account openness due to the constraints CBI places on leaders' discretionary monetary and fiscal policies, thereby fostering reliance on financial policy to boost their economies. However, this relationship is contingent on the domestic political contexts of countries. CBI leads to capital account liberalization only when the rule of law is guaranteed, given that CBI is often stipulated by laws. Therefore, in countries where political leaders can easily override formal rules, CBI shows no discernible impact on capital account openness. Employing two‐way fixed‐effects and error‐correction models, the study reveals that CBI increases capital account openness only in democracies, in the presence of multiple veto players, and a high level of transparency. The findings underscore the pivotal role of the domestic political environment in analyzing how CBI constrains political leaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether capital flow management and monetary policies effectively reduce credit growth in emerging market economies in the presence of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy actions undertaken by advanced economies. We apply a dynamic panel model with fixed effects to a sample of 21 emerging market economies from 2000 to 2020 using quarterly data and more continuous variables than in other studies rather than limiting the variability using proxies. We find that capital controls and macroprudential regulation, as tools of capital flow management policy, moderate credit growth. This effect is particularly shown in countries with tighter monetary conditions. Our main findings highlight the useful role of coordinating capital flow management and monetary policies. This role stands for both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. Lastly, we find capital flow management and monetary policies manage to control credit in normal periods, but their coordination is less effective during crises and high volatility periods. Robustness checks suggest that these findings are stable across alternative proxies used in the literature, thus providing additional support for the validity of our results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an overview of the macroeconomic challenges facing the 10 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It discusses various macroeconomic indicators and the importance of achieving high levels of economic growth. The article also explores ASEAN's participation in Regional Value Chains (RVCs) and Global Value Chains (GVCs), particularly in the automotive and electronics industries. It examines the adoption of inflation targeting frameworks by ASEAN countries and evaluates their macroeconomic performance. The text further analyzes the fiscal sustainability of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, providing policy recommendations to enhance revenue collection and reduce subsidies. It also discusses the challenges faced by Vietnam's economy and suggests policy measures to overcome them. The article touches on economic issues in Cambodia and Laos, including technology spillovers, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) implementation, and financial system reform. The perspectives presented offer insights into these countries' economic situations and potential policy measures. [Extracted from the article]

The experience of flexible inflation targeting in ASEAN‐5 has been favorable. The present paper shows improvements in macroeconomic outcomes consistent with the framework's mandated objectives: lower levels and volatility of inflation, more stable economic growth, and a well‐functioning financial system. Using difference‐in‐difference approaches, we find that, for ASEAN‐5 and developing countries, the inflation targeting framework mainly benefits adopters in terms of reducing inflation levels. In response to the challenges emanating from capital flow volatility and domestic financial imbalances, over the past 20 years, ASEAN‐5 policy frameworks have continuously evolved to incorporate various policy tools. These include, among others, foreign exchange intervention, macroprudential policy, and capital flow measures. A multitude of policy tools is arguably one of the key factors contributing to sound macroeconomic outcomes during the post‐targeting periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the current reliance of central banks on data, particularly pay and price data, to inform their monetary policy decisions. It explains that this strategy may not be optimal in the long term as it can make central banks too backward-looking and create volatility in bond markets. As inflation becomes more predictable, central banks are expected to gradually scale back their data dependence and rely more on their forecasts, potentially leading to rate cuts. The article also highlights the increased market sensitivity to data surprises, particularly in relation to payrolls and inflation, since the start of 2022. It concludes by discussing the potential for rate cuts by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve in the future. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the outlook for central banks and their potential policy rate cuts. The author believes that major central banks, such as the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, will cut rates more quickly than what is currently expected by markets. The article also highlights the factors that central banks are considering, such as global GDP growth forecasts, inflationary pressures, and the path of services inflation. The author predicts that the ECB will cut rates by a further 200bps by the end of 2025, while the Fed and Bank of England will cut by 150bps over the same period. However, the author notes that there are risks to the path for policy rates, and that markets may be underestimating the extent of policy divergence between the Fed and ECB. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the recent surge in inflation and predicts that inflation rates in the G7 countries will continue to fall to 2% or lower in 2024-2025. The inflationary pressure was caused by a combination of wartime-style fiscal and monetary policies and pandemic-related distortions to product and labor markets. However, these sources of inflationary pressure are now receding. The article also highlights the importance of monitoring fiscal deficits, monetary growth, credit conditions, labor markets, and supply disruptions as indicators of future inflation trends. The analysis suggests that policy divergence may occur among the G7 economies, with the US indicators looking stronger than in Europe. Overall, the article concludes that the 'wartime' characteristics of recent inflation are fading, and further declines in inflation are likely. [Extracted from the article]

This study proposes an 'implicit measure' of disagreement to investigate presence of any latent discord in the policy briefings of central banks across nations. We analyse Monetary policy statements of the Bank of Japan (Japan), Banco Central do Brasil (Brazil) and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (Türkiye) on both specific as well as overall economic outlook by using novel text mining tools. Subsequently, we explore the relationship of the proposed measure of implicit disagreement with the accuracy of growth and inflation forecasts. Our findings confirm that disagreement/discord among policymakers over varied economic aspects provides signals to forecasters and helps in aligning their forecasts better. The results of this study indicate that disagreement too can be considered as a plausible criterion that can explain the forecaster's belief thereby playing a positive role in 'forecaster learning'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]