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Occupancy models are often used to analyze long‐term monitoring data to better understand how and why species redistribute across dynamic landscapes while accounting for incomplete capture. However, this approach requires replicate detection/non‐detection data at a sample unit and many long‐term monitoring programs lack temporal replicate surveys. In such cases, it has been suggested that surveying subunits within a larger sample unit may be an efficient substitution (i.e., space‐for‐time substitution). Still, the efficacy of fitting occupancy models using a space‐for‐time substitution has not been fully explored and is likely context dependent. Herein, we fit occupancy models to Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) and Longfin Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) catch data collected by two different monitoring programs that use the same sampling gear in the San Francisco Bay‐Delta, USA. We demonstrate how our inferences concerning the distribution of these species changes when using a space‐for‐time substitution. Specifically, we found the probability that a sample unit was occupied was much greater when using a space‐for‐time substitution, presumably due to the change in the spatial scale of our inferences. Furthermore, we observed that as the spatial scale of our inferences increased, our ability to detect environmental effects on system dynamics was obscured, which we suspect is related to the tradeoffs associated with spatial grain and extent. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of considering how the unique characteristics of monitoring programs influences inferences, which has broad implications for how to appropriately leverage existing long‐term monitoring data to understand the distribution of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considerable resources have been invested in ecological restoration projects across the globe to restore ecosystem integrity. Restoration strategies are often diverse and have been met with mixed success. In this article, we describe the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) decision‐support models developed by the Central Valley Project Improvement Act Science Integration Team as part of a larger structured decision‐making effort aimed at maximizing natural adult production of Chinook salmon in California's Central Valley, the United States. We then describe the decision‐analytic tools the stakeholder group used to solve the models and explore model results, including stochastic dynamic programming, forward simulation, proportional scoring, relative loss, expected value of perfect information, response profile analyses, and indifference curves. Using these tools, the stakeholder group was able to develop and evaluate restoration strategies for multiple Chinook salmon runs simultaneously, a first for the restoration program. We found that actions targeted at one run were detrimental to others, which was unexpected. Furthermore, information uncovered during this process was used to direct efforts towards targeted research/monitoring to reduce critical uncertainties in salmon demographic rates and make better restoration decisions moving forward. The decision sciences have established a wide range of analytical tools and approaches to simplify complex problems into key components, and we believe the concepts described in this article are of great interest and can be applied by many restoration practitioners that undoubtedly face similar difficulties when implementing restoration strategies for complex systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many frameworks have been used to identify environmental flows for sustaining river ecosystems or specific taxa in the face of widespread flow alteration. However, these frameworks largely focus on identifying suitable flows and often ignore the important links between management actions, resulting flows, and valued ecosystem or social responses. Structured decision making (SDM) could assist the comparison of environmental flows by providing a mature framework to link management actions to objectives via environmental flow science. We describe SDM and illustrate its application using a case study focused on comparing environmental flow scenarios for the mainstem Willamette River, Oregon. In a short timeframe, SDM was applied to identify objectives, develop empirical and expert opinion‐based models, and compare flow scenarios while accounting for interannual flow variability and partial controllability. No scenario was clearly preferred based on available knowledge, largely because river flows could only be partially controlled through dam operations. Participants agreed that SDM was useful for comparing alternative dam operations, but that refined predictive models and additional objectives were needed to better inform basinwide flow decisions. In our view, SDM can provide more realistic comparisons of environmental flows by accounting for partial controllability and uncertainty, which may result in greater implementation of available flow management actions. Research Impact Statement: Structured decision making can support environmental flow implementation decisions by linking management options to ecosystem values while accounting for uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prespawn mortality (PSM) presents a major problem for the recovery of spring Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations. In the Willamette River, Oregon, PSM exceeds 90% in some years but factors explaining it are not well understood. We examined intestinal tissue samples using histological slides from over 783 spring Chinook Salmon collected between 2009 and 2021, which included tissues from PSM fish, artificially spawned captive broodstock (BS) and normal river run fish, comprised of trapped (Live) and naturally post‐spawned river (RPS) fish collected from the river. We observed degeneration of the intestinal epithelium and loss of villous structure, with concurrent severe enteritis. A natural progression of decline in epithelial integrity (EI) through the summer and fall until spawning and subsequent death was also observed. Live fish exhibited high EI scores (mean = 68%), BS exhibited variable EI scores (35%) and RPS exhibited severe loss of EI (14%). PSM fish exhibited prominent loss of intestinal epithelium with EI scores (13%), very similar to RPS fish, despite having been collected earlier in the year. Hence, we argue that low EI scores are strongly linked with PSM. Ceratonova shasta and Enterocytozoon schreckii were common in all groups, but neither were linked to either PSM or a decline in EI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. North American freshwater mussels have been subjected to multiple stressors in recent decades that have contributed to declines in the status and distribution of many species. However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the relative influence of these factors on observed population declines. 2. We used an occupancy modelling approach to quantify relationships between mussel species occurrence and various site- and catchment-level factors, including land cover, stream size, the occurrence of drought and reach isolation due to impoundment for 21 mussel species native to the lower Flint River Basin, Georgia, U.S.A. 3. Our modelling approach accounted for potential biases associated with both incomplete detection and misidentification of species, which are frequently not accommodated as sources of bias in freshwater mussel studies. 4. Modelling results suggested that mussel species were, on average, four times less likely to be present following severe drought, but the negative effects of drought declined rapidly with increasing stream size. Similarly, mussel species were 15 times less likely to occupy small streams that were isolated from mainstem tributaries by impoundments. 5. This study provides insight into the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on freshwater mussel species. Our findings add to a growing body of literature aimed at improving understanding of the predominant factors influencing freshwater mussel populations and fostering the development of more informed and effective conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present study, specimens of the invasive clam, Corbicula fluminea, were collected above and below possible sources of potentially toxic trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and Zn) in the Altamaha River system (Georgia, USA). Bioaccumulation of these elements was quantified, along with environmental (water and sediment) concentrations. Hierarchical linear models were used to account for variability in tissue concentrations related to environmental (site water chemistry and sediment characteristics) and individual (growth metrics) variables while identifying the strongest relations between these variables and trace element accumulation. The present study found significantly elevated concentrations of Cd, Cu, and Hg downstream of the outfall of kaolin-processing facilities, Zn downstream of a tire cording facility, and Cr downstream of both a nuclear power plant and a paper pulp mill. Models of the present study indicated that variation in trace element accumulation was linked to distance upstream from the estuary, dissolved oxygen, percentage of silt and clay in the sediment, elemental concentrations in sediment, shell length, and bivalve condition index. By explicitly modeling environmental variability, the Hierarchical linear modeling procedure allowed the identification of sites showing increased accumulation of trace elements that may have been caused by human activity. Hierarchical linear modeling is a useful tool for accounting for environmental and individual sources of variation in bioaccumulation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To predict the distributions of breeding birds in the state of Georgia, USA, we built hierarchical models consisting of 4 levels of nested mapping units of decreasing area: 90,000 ha, 3,600 ha, 144 ha, and 5.76 ha. We used the Partners in Flight database of point counts to generate presence and absence data at locations across the state of Georgia for 9 avian species: Acadian flycatcher (Empidonax virescens), brown-headed nuthatch (Sitta pusilla), Carolina wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus), indigo bunting (Passerina cyanea), northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis), prairie warbler (Dendroica discolor), yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus), white-eyed vireo (Vireo griseus), and wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). At each location, we estimated hierarchical-level-specific habitat measurements using the Georgia GAP Analysis18 class land cover and other Geographic Information System sources. We created candidate, species-specific occupancy models based on previously reported relationships, and fit these using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures implemented in OpenBugs. We then created a confidence model set for each species based on Akaike's Information Criterion. We found hierarchical habitat relationships for all species. Three-fold cross-validation estimates of model accuracy indicated an average overall correct classification rate of 60.5%. Comparisons with existing Georgia GAP Analysis models indicated that our models were more accurate overall. Our results provide guidance to wildlife scientists and managers seeking predict avian occurrence as a function of local and landscape-level habitat attributes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective conservation efforts for at-risk species require knowledge of the locations of existing populations. Species presence can be estimated directly by conducting field-sampling surveys or alternatively by developing predictive models. Direct surveys can be expensive and inefficient, particularly for rare and difficult-to-sample species, and models of species presence may produce biased predictions. We present a Bayesian approach that combines sampling and model-based inferences for estimating species presence. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of this approach were compared to those of sampling surveys and predictive models for estimating the presence of the threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) via simulation with existing models and empirical sampling data. Simulations indicated that a sampling-only approach would be the most effective and would result in the lowest presence and absence misclassification error rates for three thresholds of detection probability. When sampling effort was considered, however, the combined approach resulted in the lowest error rates per unit of sampling effort. Hence, lower probability-of-detection thresholds can be specified with the combined approach, resulting in lower misclassification error rates and improved cost-effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here, we provide evidence that the freshwater parasitic copepod, Salmincola californiensis, acts as a vector for Aeromonas salmonicida. While investigating the effects of S. californiensis on Chinoook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), we tangentially observed that fish infected with the copepod developed furunculosis, caused by A. salmonicida. This occurred despite being reared in pathogen‐free well water in a research facility with no prior history of spontaneous infection. We further investigated the possibility of S. californiensis to serve as a vector for the bacterium via detection of fluorescently labelled A. salmonicida inside the egg sacs from copepods in which the fish hosts were experimentally infected with GFP‐A449 A. salmonicida. We then evaluated copepod egg sacs that were collected from adult Chinook salmon from a freshwater hatchery with A. salmonicida infections confirmed by either culture or PCR. The bacterium was cultured on tryptic soy agar plates from 75% of the egg sacs, and 61% were positive by PCR. These three separate experiments indicate an alternative tactic of transmission in addition to direct transmission of A. salmonicida in captivity. The copepod may play an important role in transmission of the bacterium when fish are more dispersed, such as in the wild. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pseudoloma neurophilia is a critical threat to the zebrafish (Danio rerio) model, as it is the most common infectious agent found in research facilities. In this study, our objectives were two‐fold: (1) compare the application of diagnostic tools for P. neurophilia and (2) track the progression of infection using PCR and histology. The first experiment showed that whole‐body analysis by qPCR (WB‐qPCR) can be a standardized process, providing a streamlined diagnostic protocol, without the need for extraction of specific tissues. Evaluating the course of infection in experimentally infected fish, we showed key dynamics in infection. Starting with a low dose exposure of 8000 spores/fish, the prevalence remained low until 92 days post‐exposure (dpe), followed by a 30%–40% prevalence by histology or 40%–90% by PCR until the end of the experiment at 334 dpe. WB‐qPCR positively detected infection in more fish than histology throughout the study, as WB‐qPCR detected the parasite as early as 4 dpe, whereas it was undetected by histology until 92 dpe. We also added a second slide for histologic analyses, showing an increase in detection rate from 24% to 26% when we combined all data from our experiments, but this increase was not statistically significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of the age and growth of animal populations is essential for understanding and predicting how populations will respond to changes in environmental conditions and anthropogenic stressors., We used a novel, von Bertalanffy hierarchical modelling approach to quantify relationships between the growth of three freshwater mussel species and various site- and watershed-level factors including seasonal discharge, land cover and stream size in the lower Flint River Basin, Georgia, U.S.A., Our modelling approach quantified the mussel-to-mussel variation in the von Bertalanffy parameters and accounted for biases associated with multiple measurements made on each mussel specimen, which are generally not accounted for as sources of bias in age and growth studies., Modelling results suggested that maximum shell size parameter and the Brody growth coefficient varied across species, on average, 19 and 33%, respectively, among individual mussels within sample sites. The variation was related to short-term high streamflows during the spring season, stream size, channel geomorphology and land cover in the watershed., This study provides insight to the factors affecting the growth of stream-dwelling freshwater mussels. Although hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth models are rarely used for freshwater mussel age and growth studies, this approach can provide important information regarding the ecology of freshwater mussels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Colonisation and population recovery are crucial to species persistence in environmentally variable ecosystems, but are poorly understood processes. After documenting movement rates for several species of stream fish, we predicted that this variable would influence colonisation rates more strongly than local abundance, per cent occupancy, body size and taxonomic family. We also predicted that populations of species with higher movement rates would recover more rapidly than species with lower movement rates and that assemblage structure would change accordingly. 2. To test these predictions, we removed fishes from a headwater and a mainstem creek in southwest Virginia and monitored colonisation over a 2-year period. Using an information–theoretic approach, we evaluated the relative plausibility of 15 alternative models containing different combinations of our predictor variables. Our best-supported model contained movement rate and abundance and was 41 times more likely to account for observed patterns in colonisation rates than the next-best model. Movement rate and abundance were both positively related to colonisation rates and explained 88% of the variation in colonisation rates among species. 3. Population recovery, measured as the per cent of initial abundance restored, was also positively associated with movement rate. One species recovered within 3 months, most recovered within 2 years, but two species still had not recovered after 2 years. Despite high variation in recovery, the removal had only a slight impact on assemblage structure because species that were abundant in pre-removal samples were also abundant in post-removal samples. 4. The significance of interspecific variation in colonisation and recovery rates has been underappreciated because of the widely documented recovery of stream fish assemblages following fish kills and small-scale experimental defaunations. Our results indicate that recovery of the overall assemblage does not imply recovery of each component species. Populations of species that are rare and less mobile will recover more slowly and will be more vulnerable to extinction in systems where chemical spills, hydrological alteration, extreme droughts and other impacts are frequent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) rearing in lakes and reservoirs above dams have been known to become heavily infected with an ectoparasitic copepod (Salmincola californiensis). Little is known about the factors that affect the parasite infection prevalence and intensity. However, previous research suggests that the parasite may negatively affect the fitness and survival of the host fish. The effect of water temperature, confinement and the density of the free‐swimming infectious stage of S. californiensis, the copepodid, on infection prevalence and intensity was evaluated by experimentally exposing juvenile Chinook Salmon (O. tshawytscha). Infection rates observed in wild populations were achieved under warm water (15–16°C) and high copepodid density (150–300/L) treatment conditions. Infection prevalence and intensity were also significantly higher in larger fish. During the infection experiment, 4.5% of infected fish died within 54 days with mortality significantly related to copepod infection intensity. The potential for autoinfection was compared to cross‐infection by cohabitation of infected fish with naïve fish. Previously infected fish had significantly greater infection intensity compared with naïve fish, indicating that infected fish can be reinfected and that they may be more susceptible than naïve fish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) are widespread contaminants emanating from, among other sources, the production/degradation of fluorinated chemicals used in surface repellant applications, such as carpet manufacturing. The goal of the present study was to assess the concentrations of PFAAs, including perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUA), and perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA), in surface waters both near a wastewater land application system (LAS) in Dalton (GA, USA), home to North America's largest carpet manufacturing site, and distant to this location (Altamaha River, GA, USA) to understand the fate of PFAAs in freshwater. Levels of PFAAs were high in the Conasauga River (GA, USA) downstream of the LAS (PFOA, 253-1,150 ng/L; PFOS, 192-318 ng/L; PFNA, 202-369 ng/L; PFDA, 30.1-113 ng/L; PFUA, 58.0-99.2 ng/L; PFOSA, 162-283 ng/L) and in streams and ponds in Dalton (PFOA, 49.9-299 ng/L; PFOS, 15.8-120 ng/L), and were among the highest measured at a nonspill or direct-lease location. Perfluoroalkyl acids in the Altamaha River were much lower (PFOA, 3.0-3.1 ng/L; PFOS, 2.6-2.7 ng/L), but were a source of PFAAs to Georgia's estuaries. A preliminary hazard assessment indicated that concentrations of PFOS at two sites in the Conasauga River exceeded the threshold effect predicted for birds consuming aquatic organisms that are exposed continuously to the PFOS levels at these sites. Assuming that toxicity for all PFAAs quantified is equal to that of PFOS, the sum total PFAAs at two sites within the Conasauga River exceeded PFOS thresholds for aquatic and avian species, warranting additional research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used strong inference with Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to assess the processes capable of explaining long-term (1984-1995) variation in the per capita rate of change of mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdi) populations in the Coweeta Creek drainage (USA). We sampled two fourth- and one fifth-order sites (BCA [uppermost], BCB, and CC [lowermost]) along a downstream gradient, and the study encompassed extensive flow variation. Physical habitat availability varied significantly both within and among the sites. Sculpin densities in all sites were highly stable (coefficients of variation = 0.23-0.41) and sampling variability was low (coefficients of variation = 0.11-0.15). Population stability was positively associated with habitat stability, and the only significant correlations of population parameters among sites involved juveniles. Sculpin densities were significantly higher in BCB than in CC. The data suggest that, despite their proximity, the dynamics of populations within the sites are being determined by small-scale (i.e., 30-50 m) rather than broad-scale spatial processes. Both AIC and Dennis and Taper analyses indicated that simple density dependence had the greatest ability to explain variation in r for all life-history classes in all sites (AIC, seven of nine cases; Dennis and Taper, nine of nine cases). Multiprocess models had little explanatory power. When adults were removed from two sites, juvenile sculpin shifted into microhabitats formerly occupied by adults. No shifts occurred in control sites. Consequently, it is likely that the patterns of density dependence observed in all three sites were a consequence of intraspecific competition for space. Our findings argue for a multitiered approach to the study of population variation, one that encompasses long-term monitoring, spatial variation, and experimental testing of potential mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]