1. An Evaluation of Dynamical Downscaling Methods Used to Project Regional Climate Change.
- Author
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Hall, Alex, Rahimi, Stefan, Norris, Jesse, Ban, Nikolina, Siler, Nicholas, Leung, L. Ruby, Ullrich, Paul, Reed, Kevin A., Prein, Andreas F., and Qian, Yun
- Subjects
CLIMATE change models ,DOWNSCALING (Climatology) ,ATMOSPHERIC models ,BUDGET ,HYDROLOGIC cycle - Abstract
In the past decade, dynamical downscaling using "pseudo‐global‐warming" (PGW) techniques has been applied frequently to project regional climate change. Such techniques generate signals by adding mean global climate model (GCM)‐simulated climate change signals in temperature, moisture, and circulation to lateral and surface boundary conditions derived from reanalysis. An alternative to PGW is to downscale GCM data directly. This technique should be advantageous, especially for simulation of extremes, since it incorporates the GCM's full spectrum of changing synoptic‐scale dynamics in the regional solution. Here, we test this assumption, by comparing simulations in Europe and Western North America. We find that for warming and changes in temperature extremes, PGW often produces similar results to direct downscaling in both regions. For mean and extreme precipitation changes, PGW generally also performs surprisingly well in many cases. Moisture budget analysis in the Western North America domain reveals why. Large fractions of the downscaled hydroclimate changes arise from mean changes in large‐scale thermodynamics and circulation, that is, increases in temperature, moisture, and winds, included in PGW by design. The one component PGW may have difficulty with is the contribution from changes in synoptic‐scale variability. When this component is large, PGW performance could be degraded. Global analysis of GCM data shows there are regions where it is large or dominant. Hence, our results provide a road map to identify, through GCM analyses, the circumstances when PGW would not be expected to accurately regionalize GCM climate signals. Plain Language Summary: Simulation of regional climate change requires regional climate models, given that global models cannot adequately represent local climate. Two techniques are typically employed for this purpose. In the first, known as direct downscaling, future climate simulated by a global model is fed to a regional model over the domain of interest. In the second, known as pseudo global warming (PGW), large‐scale observations of current climate are perturbed by the global model's future changes, and then fed to the regional model. Direct downscaling appears advantageous because it is more physically consistent with the global model. We test this idea by comparing these two techniques over both Western North America and Europe. They produce surprisingly similar temperature and precipitation projections in both regions. The reason for this similarity is investigated by analyzing the model physics in Western North America. We show there is one component, representing changes to individual storms, that PGW may have difficulty representing. PGW succeeds because this component makes a small contribution in Western North America. But there are other regions where it makes a larger or dominant contribution. In such regions, regional modeling using PGW may produce errors in simulating regional climate change. Key Points: Pseudo global warming and direct dynamical downscaling produce generally similar regional projections over Western North America and EuropeFirst‐order moisture budget terms determining future hydroclimate change are similar between the two techniquesRegions whose hydroclimates are dominated by higher‐order moisture budget terms require evaluation prior to downscaling [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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