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Aim To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle ( CARLA) study. Methods The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. Results We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10-12). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve ( AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration ( AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA1c concentration ( AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. Conclusions Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition ( EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabet. Med. 27, 473–476 (2010) Aims The current definition of impaired fasting glucose (IFG, ≥ 100 mg/dl) has been criticized as being too low for selective identification of individuals at risk for Type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, it is unclear whether any cut-off is justifiable from the shape of association between fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes. We therefore evaluated the association between FPG and incidence of Type 2 diabetes in a prospective, population-based study. Methods A case–cohort study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort study involved 589 fasted participants in a randomly selected subcohort and 153 incident cases. Restricted cubic spline regression was used to examine non-linearity of associations and we calculated pairs of sensitivities and specificities for different cut-offs of FPG. Results Spline regression with adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, education, physical activity, alcohol consumption, and plasma levels of triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and γ-glutamyltransferase indicated that FPG was associated with risk in a non-linear fashion. Risk with higher FPG increased only above ∼84 mg/dl. FPG ≥ 84 mg/dl yielded a sensitivity of 95.4% at a false-positive rate of 86.8%. In comparison, FPG ≥ 100 and ≥ 110 mg/dl yielded sensitivities of 78.4 and 42.5% and false-positive rates of 27.8 and 6.8%, respectively. The optimal cut-off of FPG was at ∼102 mg/dl (sensitivity: 75.8%, false-positive rate: 20.7%). Conclusions Although our study suggests a threshold for increasing diabetes risk at 84 mg/dl, this cut-off would classify the vast majority of the population as at risk. The statistically optimal cut-off supports the current definition of IFG (≥ 100 mg/dl). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our objective was to examine prospectively the associations between fasting plasma proinsulin and the proinsulin/insulin ratio and the incidence of Type 2 diabetes in women. We designed a nested case-control study within the Nurses’ Health Study, a cohort of 121 700 US women aged 30–55 years at study inception in 1976. Fasting plasma proinsulin, specific insulin and C-peptide levels were determined in 183 women with a new diagnosis of diabetes made after blood sampling between 1989 and 1990, and 369 control subjects without diabetes. After adjustment for age, body mass index, family history of diabetes and other potential confounders, including HbA1c, the odds ratios for diabetes associated with increasing quartiles of proinsulin were 1.00, 0.85, 2.49 and 5.73 ( P for trend: < 0.001). Proinsulin remained significantly associated with diabetes risk after adjusting for C-peptide and specific insulin (multivariate odds ratios for quartiles: 1.00, 0.78, 1.94, 3.69; P for trend = 0.001). In addition, the proinsulin/insulin ratio was significantly associated with diabetes risk, controlling in multivariate analysis for C-peptide (odds ratios for extreme quartiles: 2.48; 95% CI: 1.14–5.41; P for trend = 0.005). These data suggest that proinsulin and the proinsulin/insulin ratio are strong independent predictors of diabetes risk, after adjustment for obesity and other potential confounders. Diabet. Med. (2005) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

. Beulens JWJ, van der Schouw YT, Bergmann MM, Rohrmann S, B Schulze M, Buijsse B, Grobbee DE, Arriola L, Cauchi S, Tormo M-J, Allen NE, van der A DL, Balkau B, Boeing H, Clavel-Chapelon F, de Lauzon-Guillan B, Franks P, Froguel P, Gonzales C, Halkjær J, Huerta JM, Kaaks R, Key TJ, Khaw KT, Krogh V, Molina-Montes E, Nilsson P, Overvad K, Palli D, Panico S, Ramón Quirós J, Ronaldsson O, Romieu I, Romaguera D, Sacerdote C, Sánchez M-J, Spijkerman AMW, Teucher B, Tjonneland A, Tumino R, Sharp S, Forouhi NG, Langenberg C, Feskens EJM, Riboli E, Wareham NJ (University Medical Center Utrecht, The Netherlands; German Institute of Human Nutrition, Potsdam-Rehbrücke, Germany; German Cancer Research Centre, Heidelberg, Germany; Basque Government, San Sebastian, CIBERESP, Spain; Institut de Biologie de Lille, Lille, France; Murcia Regional Health Council, Murcia, Spain; CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Publica (CIBERESP), Spain; University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands; Inserm, CESP Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health, Villejuif Cedex, France; Lund University, Malmö, Sweden; Imperial College, London, UK; Department of Epidemiology, Barcelona, Spain; Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark; University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori Milan, Milan, Italy; Andalusian School of Public Health, Granada, Spain; School of Public Health, Aarhus, Denmark; Cancer Research and Prevention Institute (ISPO), Florence, Italy; Università Federico II, Napoli, Italy; Consejeria de Salud y Servicios Sanitarios, Oviedo-Asturias, Spain; Umea University, Umea, Sweden; International Agency for Research of Cancer, Lyon, France; Center for Cancer Prevention (CPO-Piemonte), Torino, Italy; 'Civile - M.P. Arezzo' Hospital, Ragusa, Italy; Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK; and Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands). Alcohol consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes in European men and women: influence of beverage type and body size. The EPIC-InterAct study. J Intern Med 2012; 272: 358-370. Objective: To investigate the association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes, and determine whether this is modified by sex, body mass index (BMI) and beverage type. Design: Multicentre prospective case-cohort study. Setting: Eight countries from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Subjects: A representative baseline sample of 16 154 participants and 12 403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes. Interventions: Alcohol consumption assessed using validated dietary questionnaires. Main outcome measures: Occurrence of type 2 diabetes based on multiple sources (mainly self-reports), verified against medical information. Results: Amongst men, moderate alcohol consumption was nonsignificantly associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.78-1.05) for 6.1-12.0 versus 0.1-6.0 g day−1, adjusted for dietary and diabetes risk factors. However, the lowest risk was observed at higher intakes of 24.1-96.0 g day−1 with an HR of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.75-0.98). Amongst women, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72-0.92) for 6.1-12.0 g day−1 ( P interaction gender <0.01). The inverse association between alcohol consumption and diabetes was more pronounced amongst overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg m−2) than normal-weight men and women ( P interaction < 0.05). Adjusting for waist and hip circumference did not alter the results for men, but attenuated the association for women (HR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.79-1.03 for 6.1-12.0 g day−1). Wine consumption for men and fortified wine consumption for women were most strongly associated with a reduced risk of diabetes. Conclusions: The results of this study show that moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes amongst women only. However, this risk reduction is in part explained by fat distribution. The relation between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes was stronger for overweight than normal-weight women and men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]