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This article explores a dilemma at the centre of the monetary order: how to counter inflation eroding the value of money and simultaneously allow bank‐created credit to meet the needs of an expanding economy. Building on recent scholarship on the history of money, the article analyses the Bank Charter Act of 1844 and the financial crisis of 1847 to reveal a response to this dilemma which continues to shape the modern context. That response relies on ex ante restrictive measures in a bid to limit the discretion of the monetary authorities and cultivate financially prudent behaviour. Yet the history of the mid‐nineteenth century exposes the challenges faced by those who enforce such rules, challenges which tie the mid‐nineteenth century to the post 2008 reforms in both the US and the Eurozone, and reveal the ongoing force of the dilemma: that simultaneous desire for both expansive credit and sound money. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry began as a means of making use of natural gas resources in socially remote regions and of natural gas associated with oil production. Natural gas was transformed from a waste product into LNG that could be moved thousands of miles to market, redefining "waste" as a valuable raw material. As the newest large-scale LNG exporter, the United States entered the LNG industry based on another redefinition of nature: the extraction of natural gas previously economically and technologically inaccessible in shale formations. Hydraulic fracturing and new drilling technologies have created reserves of natural gas that are driving down prices with excess production and provoking a search for new markets via LNG exports. Liquefied natural gas is reshaping economies, communities, industries, and ecosystems in the United States and in other parts of the world. This article analyzes the role of the LNG industry with a particular focus on the economic and geopolitical consequences for the United States. The United States is returning to its historical role of energy exporter. Some view the return to this role as an economic and geopolitical boon that will enhance the U.S. economy and the nation's global standing. A contrasting interpretation sees the United States sliding into the extractive periphery, serving the energy demands of a growing China, much like the United States once did for Europe and especially Great Britain. This view condemns what it views as the exploitation of U.S. natural resources to meet China's energy needs while leaving large areas of the United States with depleted resources, damaged ecosystems, and disrupted communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the success that Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan has had in maintaining the financial stability of the U.S. as seen by low levels of inflation and high economic growth. The author notes that this success can be seen as even greater when one examines how other countries have struggled and dealt with financial crises during this same time period. The author outlines some of Greenspan's policy contributions, examines global capital flows and discusses capital market efficiency under Greenspan.

I investigate how the level of inequality affects American public opinion on foreign aid. As the level of inequality increases across the United States, the majority of the public will be more likely to demand the government implement policies that should ameliorate severe inequality in society. Assuming that government resources are limited, a greater level of inequality in American society may weaken public support for foreign aid because the public may prioritize providing social safety nets and welfare programs in domestic milieu over granting foreign aid to developing countries. In addition, as inequality widens, the public may perceive economic globalization as one of the main causes of inequality; thus, their overall support for globalization will decline. As a result, American support for global engagement will be negatively affected, and public support for foreign aid may decrease. An empirical test using public opinion data in 50 U.S. states since the 1980s confirms my theory: widening inequality both across states and within a given state does weaken public support for U.S. foreign aid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses a stylised vector autoregression to estimate the impact of shocks to lending standards on the depth of US recession and duration of recovery from the 2007−2008 financial crisis. It estimates that the US economic activity was about 0.5 percentage points lower every quarter than in the case when banks' lending standards had not tightened beyond the levels warranted by economic fundamentals. The article further shows empirical evidence that the economic contraction of 2008−2009 would have been 2 percentage points of GDP milder in the absence of the shocks to lending standards sentiment. Finally, the lending sentiment seemed to switch to a loosening bias when GDP recovered to its pre‐recession levels in 2012. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating a large‐scale factor‐augmented vector autoregressive model for 18 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development member countries, we quantify the global effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks. More specifically, we check whether the signs, the magnitude, and the persistence profile are consistent with the literature on the real and financial sector effects of uncertainty. In that respect, we compare the impacts of a U.S. and a Euro area policy uncertainty shock. According to our results, an increase in economic policy uncertainty has a strong negative impact on economic activity (gross domestic product), consumer prices, equity prices, and interest rates. Uncertainty shocks cause deeper recessions in Continental Europe (except Germany) than in Anglo‐Saxon countries. U.S. uncertainty shocks have a bigger impact than those for the Euro area. Economic policy uncertainty does not only affect that country where the shock originates but also has large cross‐border effects. We also find a high degree of synchronization among the responses of national variables to a (foreign) uncertainty shock, indicating evidence of an international business cycle. With respect to the responses of national long‐term interest rates to an economic policy uncertainty shock, our results reveal a strong "North‐South" divide within the Euro area with rates decreasing less significantly in the South. Moreover, economic policy uncertainty shocks emerging in one region quickly raise uncertainty outside the region of origin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents and tests a hypothesis that the standardization of payments in the United States at the turn of each calendar month generally induces a surge in stock returns at the turn of each calendar month. The hypothesis also asserts that returns generally will be greater following the month of December and will vary inversely with the stringency of monetary policy. Empirical results using stock index returns for 1969-1986 support the hypothesis. This analysis provides an explanation for the previously documented monthly effect in stock returns and a partial explanation for the January effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the U.S. and other countries, experience indicates that bank managers who are left to their own devices energetically pursue opportunities to diversify their firm's activities and to increase its' asset size.1 Both to tax and to stabilize the financial system and to make it hard for large banks to monopolize various kinds of local and national markets, state and federal officials have traditionally imposed restraints on individual-bank efforts to grow and diversify. Authorities have focused their efforts particularly on reducing individual banks' capacities for deposit-gathering and for taking over other firms. Since the early 1960s, such restraints have grown increasingly less effective. This paper attempts to explain why. It also discusses why in 1980 opportunities for deregulating banking markets are finally being seized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The focus of this paper is on aggregate U.S. labor productivity growth. Accordingly, we have taken real gross national product per labor hour employed as our indicator of labor productivity. Table I shows the history of labor productivity over the 1947–1973 period. The time periods reported in Table I were chosen to encompass peak periods of economic activity. This should minimize business cycle distortions of productivity movements. The data in Table I suggest that productivity has slowed considerably. It is important to ask whether the slowdown is permanent in nature. A closely related issue is the question of whether economic policy measures can be designed which would significantly affect long-run productivity growth. The only way to resolve these issues is to undertake a careful accounting of the sources of productivity growth and to develop forecasts of movements in the factors which affect productivity. The analysis of this paper indicates that the slowdown in productivity growth, in the 1970's in particular, can be traced to a very slow growth in the capital/labor ratio in the years 1970–75 and to a change in the labor force mix because of the entrance into the work force of large numbers of young and inexperienced workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the effect of United States controls on U.S. commercial bank borrowing in the Euro-dollar market. The authors attempt to quantify the effects of measures adopted by U.S. authorities to control Euro-dollar borrowing. A structural demand function of Euro-dollar borrowing is estimated from a general equilibrium portfolio model of the Euro-dollar market developed by the authors. The results of the study indicate that policies enacted by U.S. authorities have had considerable impact on both Euro-dollar borrowing and the Euro-dollar interest rate.

This article examines whether capital flow restrictions, originally enacted for balance of payments reasons, also had the intended effect of isolating the national segments of the international equity market. Specific focus is given to measures adopted in the U.S., Great Britain and France. Arbitrage would assure that the market price of a security in one country would be equal to the market price of the same security in the second country, given that there are instantaneous information flows and no barriers to capital movements. However, the prices for a given security differs between markets, and such price differentials can be viewed as indicators of the impact of different capital control measures.

The article focuses on alternative theories and tests of the U.S. short-term foreign investment. The article is based on a comparative analysis of estimates of the overflow of short-term capital from the United States based on alternative formulations of the explanatory model and on several different estimation techniques. It was found in the article's study that a restrictive monetary policy by the U.S. may not lessen the overflow of the U.S. short-term capital, even if foreign countries do not respond with tighter monetary policies of their own.

The article discusses a financial framework for economic growth in the United States. The article presents a unified financial counterpart to a long-term economic projection. Based on assumptions of varying rates of growth, a set of projections of economic activity in 1970 is presented. A "judgment" model will be selected based on the results of the projections. The article then introduces a theoretical framework that links levels of economic and financial activity. By using the "judgment" model as a reference, the pattern of relationships will be applied to a projection of assets and liabilities for the individual components of the financial network.

The author comments on the balance of payments and a proposal to reduce the balance of payments in the United States. The author discusses some semantical and "institutional" aspects of "the discipline of the balance of payments." The author presents some ideas concerning the balance-of payments situation in the United States. The author also proposes that the price of gold should be reduced, and that the proposals to increase gold have caused an imbalance. Those that are advocating for the increase in the price of gold are asserting that it would supply more international liquidity.

The article discusses the balance of payments in the United States. It is explained that in the United States the balance of payments is considered as "disciplining" the domestic economy. The article also takes the approach that developments in the domestic economy could be in turn "disciplining" the balance of payments. Throughout the history of the United States it is much less evident that financial officials have been aware of a discipline imposed by the balance of payments, which is attributed to the unimportance of balance-of-payments factors relative to total factors operating in the economy.

The article presents a discussion of the Keynesian economic views regarding the free-market economic structure and its intrinsic risk of overproduction leading to depression. The value of emphasizing or ignoring a business-cycle based theory of economic development is explored. Several economic theorists are cited regarding their views on the debate. The economic goals of maintaining investments and maximizing employment toward full-status are analyzed in regards to the proper implementation of fiscal and monetary policy for government security and control over possible recession activity.

The article focuses on the effects exerted by credit and debt management policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury on the investments of life insurance companies, specifically policies that have been adopted and followed since the beginning of the Korean War. The article discusses the background of life insurance company investments in the period following World War II up to the end of 1950. It is suggested that this background is critical for a better understanding of how life insurance companies were affected by such credit and debt policies.

The author presents comments on fiscal policy in general and the structure of the federal tax system in particular in the United States. It is explained that as the federal government devotes a larger share of the national output to national security, the share available for personal and business purposes become smaller. The author focuses on articles by Walter Heller, "Practical Limitations on the Federal Net Income Tax," and B.U. Ratchford, "Practical Limitations to the Net Income Tax-General." It is explained that the articles are primarily concerned with the income tax, but the author suggests that the questions and issues they raise could have been broadened to include the other major revenue producers for the U.S. government.

The article analyzes the wage policy for the United States proposed by A.P. Lerner. The proposal is designed to eliminate the inflationary potential inherent in a full employment policy. According to the author, the proposed program by Lerner is impossible to carry through, primarily because of the obstacle of securing the data necessary to permit the proper functioning of the plan. The author classifies Lerner's proposal as an automatic stabilizer. This is because the decision to act in one way or another is not a matter of discretion, but is decided for the authorization by an index of relative attractiveness.

The article examines the administrative aspects of the treasury-central bank disagreement in the United States. The article presents a proposal for a single new executive department be created to take the place of the U.S. Treasury Department and of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The central benefit for the department would be that neither the Treasury Department nor the Federal Reserve would be subordinate, nor would either be independent. The article provides a background for the details of the proposal, and the nature of the problem is analyzed.

To set the stage for future research aimed at developing public policies that support economic prosperity in rural areas, we review the current economic conditions of rural America and the current literature. Rural America is often characterized as a uniform, distressed place where agriculture dominates. In fact, rural America is diverse, with many regions doing well economically. In some areas, labor-saving technologies have reduced the workforce in manufacturing and resource-dependent industries. However, integration with urban areas has weakened the economic divide between urban and some rural areas, while natural amenities have boosted the fortunes of others. There is also evidence that homegrown enterprises can support growth even in the most remote, distressed regions. To support economic growth, policies should recognize the unique features of each place or region and balance the farm sector with the larger nonfarm rural economy. Economists are well-positioned to provide research-based evidence of what works, as well as rigorous evaluation of new polices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

▀ We head into 2018 in a fairly optimistic mood. The current upswing is more broadly based than any other since the global financial crisis, and – unusually by recent standards – we have entered the new year without any major crisis looming. We see world GDP growth accelerating from 3.0% last year to 3.2% in 2018, which would be the best year for the global economy since the post‐global financial crisis rebound. ▀ There are four key reasons why 2018 is going to be a good one globally: (i) strong trade growth; (ii) muted inflation keeping monetary policy accommodative; (iii) emerging markets staying robust; (iv) resilience to political uncertainty. ▀ The near‐term risk of an abrupt slowdown in China looks limited, while the Eurozone economy continues to stage robust growth which is underpinned by strong fundamentals. A potential fiscal loosening, a weaker dollar and business investment revival bode well for the US. The outlook is bright for economies that are heavily integrated into global manufacturing supply chains or reliant on commodity exports. ▀ Granted, soaring debt is a cause for concern, particularly in some emerging markets, along with high asset price valuations. They warrant close monitoring and are plausible triggers for the next global slowdown. Nonetheless, while such risks could linger or indeed escalate further before correcting, we don't see them as 2018 issues. ▀ The most obvious trigger for any such correction would be a widespread and more aggressive monetary policy normalisation. However, in our view, inflation pressures look set to build only slowly. Add the fact that high debt will make the economy more sensitive to interest rate moves, we expect central banks to normalise with caution and see policymakers doing less tightening that the consensus expectation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Based on a qualitative methodology that includes in-depth interviews with 90 Mexican migrant smugglers and 45 Central American farmworkers, this article analyzes the three separate elements of trafficking in US agriculture, namely acts, means, and purposes. We conclude that some US employers participate in human trafficking by financing or helping to recruit and transport Mexican and Central American migrants to the US by means of 'abuse of a position of vulnerability' for the purposes of involuntary servitude, debt bondage, and sex exploitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relative economic, political, and military power is undoubtedly shifting away from the West, most notably to Asia, but also to other world regions. Moreover, non-state actors and cross-border flows increasingly pose challenges to Western states' capacity for crisis management. Consequently, the liberal world order and its governance structures have come under pressure. Even more fundamental is the emerging challenge to the notion of the 'West' as a group of countries led by the United States and unified around core values and principles. The 2016 US election results raise serious doubts about the future US administration's resolve to abide by liberal democratic norms both internally and in their international relations. Whether deliberately or indirectly in the pursuit of other goals, the US may undermine the already weakened rules-based international system and thereby accelerate the decline of the West's material and ideological hegemony. In light of these potential conflicts, European governments must take immediate action to prepare for a new global order. They must first strengthen their own countries and enhance the internal coherence of the Union. Second, they must improve the crisis management facilities and strategic capacities within their borders as well as within the euro area and the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the early 2000s in the United States, food deserts-neighborhoods in which households have limited geographic access to full-service supermarkets or grocery stores- have become conceptually central in public policy research on food security. Analyzing this phenomenon from a 'policy mobility' perspective, this article traces the food desert's emergence in policy discourse, locating it within an entrepreneurial social policy paradigm that privileges real estate development over direct economic relief. In the context of property-led anti-poverty efforts, the identification and mapping of food deserts catalyzes a logic that leads to subsidy to grocery store development in low-income areas (or 'fresh food financing'), while at the same time officials are cutting programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (food stamps), which directly supplements household food budgets. The article contributes to widening critical discussion of the food desert paradigm and the policy interventions with which it is associated. It calls on urban researchers and practitioners to reframe discussions of food access and nutrition around the shortage of basic income and a need for higher wage floors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty on tourism spending (direct sales) by USA domestic tourists over the period of 1998Q1-2015Q4. For this purpose, for the first time, the Economic Policy Uncertainty index was used as an independent variable in tourism demand analysis models. Unit root and cointegration tests are applied to account for unknown structural breaks. The empirical findings indicate that a higher level of Economic Policy Uncertainty leads to significant declines in tourism spending in the long run. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors have presented a very interesting and a very well done paper. Indeed it is so well done technically, that I have a difficult task as a discussant. I have no reason to doubt the accuracy of the computer that ground out the several simulations discussed in the paper, nor is it likely that the authors misunderstood the model employed since Professor Adams was one of the principal developers of the model while he was at the OECD. Rather my attempt to get a handle on the paper will start at a more basic level and I pose the question, why bother? Since history cannot be re-run, what is the purpose of simulating the past under more ideal conditions of macro economic balance? The authors state that they have a two-fold purpose in mind: to determine what were the causes of the deterioration of the U.S. trade balance between 1964 and 1969, and to determine what are the future prospects for the U.S. trade balance. The authors add that these determinations have 'obvious policy implications.' [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Household formation has been running well below trend in the United States. This article studies the determinants of household formation and how they evolve over the long and short runs. There are three main findings. First, the aging of the population has pushed up the headship rate and household formation. Second, after stripping out demographic effects, offsetting changes in behavior among younger and older adults have left the behavioral component of the headship rate with no pronounced trend. Finally, the short-run dynamics of headship reflect the business cycle, implying that household formation could increase substantially as the labor market recovers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a 50-year historical perspective of the nation's antipoverty efforts, describing the evolution of policy during four key periods since 1965. Over this half-century, the initial heavy reliance on cash income support to poor families has eroded; increases in public support came largely in the form of in-kind (e.g., Food Stamps) and tax-related (e.g., the Earned Income Tax Credit) benefits. Work support and the supplementation of earnings substituted for direct support. These shifts eroded the safety net for the most disadvantaged in American society. Three poverty-related analytical developments are also described. The rise of the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM)-taking account of noncash and tax-related benefits-has corrected some of the serious weaknesses of the official poverty measure (OPM). The SPM measure indicates that the poverty rate has declined over time, rather than being essentially flat as the OPM implies. We also present snapshots of the composition of the poor population in the United States using both the OPM and the SPM, showing progress in reducing poverty overall and among specific socioeconomic subgroups since the beginning of the War on Poverty. Finally, we document the expenditure levels of numerous antipoverty programs that have accompanied the several phases of poverty policy and describe the effect of these efforts on the level of poverty. Although the effectiveness of government antipoverty transfers is debated, our findings indicate that the growth of antipoverty policies has reduced the overall level of poverty, with substantial reductions among the elderly, disabled, and blacks. However, the poverty rates for children, especially those living in single-parent families, and families headed by a low-skill, low-education person, have increased. Rates of deep poverty (families living with less than one-half of the poverty line) for the nonelderly population have not decreased, reflecting both the increasing labor market difficulties faced by the low-skill population and the tilt of means-tested benefits away from the poorest of the poor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fed is likely to commence hiking its policy rate in 2015. It is unlikely, however, that this rate-hike cycle will feature a predictable 25 basis-point rise at each and every meeting once it begins. Instead, the Fed will, I believe, opt to deliver a path of policy normalization even more gradual than the path it delivered in 2004-06. This will be owed, at least in part, to the difficulty it will confront in estimating the neutral policy rate with any precision, as well as to the fact that this cycle is likely to begin with an inflation rate that will have been running below its 2% target since that target was first announced in 2012. The Fed will nonetheless begin to hike because it is forecasting that inflation will rise as unemployment falls to - or even below - its estimate of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Because of the slowdown in the United States and global potential growth, however, as well as a persistent excess of global saving relative to desired investment opportunities, I expect that, for at least the next couple of years and likely for some time beyond, the neutral Fed policy rate consistent with mandate-implied levels of unemployment and inflation will lie in the range of 2-3% in nominal terms, well below the pre-crisis estimates of 4%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bond market and early forward guidance from some Fed officials suggest the equilibrium short-term interest rate over the next few years will have a 3%-handle, below the traditional 4% level. We see heightened risks that the Fed will make a policy mistake. Markets should expect the volume of Fed talk and debate on the future trajectory and pace of rate hikes to increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we test for the gravitation of regulating return rates, namely those return rates yielded by capital goods incorporating the best methods of production. We define them within a vintage capital model taking into consideration capacity utilization, capital depreciation and wages of workers using past capital vintages. We consider two data sets regarding US manufacturing activities and we find that gravitation does take place. Our results are contrasted with those of the previous literature. Research and policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (TRA97), the capital gain from the sale of a home was taxed differently for those over and under the age of 55. TRA97 eliminated this differential treatment. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find that home sellers slightly under the age of 55 were 6.2% more likely to move for a less expensive house to maintain, 6.6% less likely to move for a larger place, and 5.2% more likely to reside in a condominium after TRA97's enactment, relative to those slightly over 55. (JEL H24, R21 ) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the causal relationship between income inequality and economic freedom using data from U.S. states over the period 1981 to 2004 within a panel error correction model framework. The results indicate bidirectional causality between income inequality and economic freedom in both the short and the long run. These results suggest that high income inequality may cause states to implement redistributive policies causing economic freedom to decline. As economic freedom declines, income inequality rises even more. In other words, it is quite possible for a state to get caught in a vicious circle of high income inequality and heavy redistribution. (JEL D63, H11 ) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the extent and variation in production cost pass-through for U.S. outsourcing imports. Data from 4,676 products imported through the U.S. overseas assembly program show that outsourcing imports were characterized by incomplete pass-through of production and trade costs to import prices. Notably, pass-through was higher for products assembled in high education countries while the response of outsourcing import prices to competing suppliers' prices was largest for products sold by firms in capital-intense industries. The reasons for these cross-country and cross-industry differences, as they relate to theories of outsourcing and trade, are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Barriers to international trade are known to be large but because of data limitations it is hard to measure them directly for a large number of countries over many years. To address this problem, I derive a micro-founded measure of bilateral trade costs that indirectly infers trade frictions from observable trade data. I show that this trade cost measure is consistent with a broad range of leading trade theories including Ricardian and heterogeneous firms models. In an application I show that U.S. trade costs with major trading partners declined on average by about 40 between 1970 and 2000, with Mexico and Canada experiencing the biggest reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I compare and contrast relief efforts by governments in response to the extraordinary unemployment of the Great Depression in the US and Australia. The effectiveness of relief spending in America at the local level is discussed using recent studies estimating the relationship between relief spending and various demographic measures. I develop a new panel data set for the Australian states from 1929 through 1939. Increased income in manufacturing and rural production were associated with lower infant mortality rates and death rates and higher fertility rates. In contrast to the US experience, however, higher per capita relief spending was associated with lower birth rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financial crisis which began in 2007 has been widely interpreted as a crisis of neoliberalism, akin to the crisis of Keynesianism of the 1970s. But there is little sign of a major paradigmatic alternative, either in theory or in practice. This article looks at how the crises and failures of neoliberalism are occurring at a micro-policy level, where they are interpreted in terms of the fallibility of individual rational choice. Policy responses to this crisis, drawing on more psychologically nuanced accounts of economic behaviour, can be described as 'neocommunitarian', inasmuch as they echo the communitarian critique of the liberal self. Where neoliberalism rests on a vision of the individual as atomised and rational, neocommunitarianism treats individuals as governed by social norms and incentives simultaneously. And where neoliberalism subjects individuals to periodic audit organised around targets and outputs, neocommunitarianism conducts a constant audit of behavioural fluctuations in real time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a simple benchmark for monetary policy. Assuming the true model of the economy is unknown, it is based on an unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR). The key result is that instead of deriving optimal policy using the original VAR equations as the constraint, when no restriction is placed on the correlation structure of the VAR disturbances, the constraint should be formed from a transformation of the VAR. This method is applied to the USA, 1964-2009. Significant welfare gains are found compared with actual policy and using a Taylor rule. Incorporating a zero interest rate lower bound lowers output and inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate methods of capturing the salient characteristics of very large datasets in an investigation of UK and US macroeconomic policy, using factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) models. We also estimate structural factor-only VAR (FOVAR) models and examine the impact of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. In a further empirical application, we find that while there is some evidence of increased macroeconomic flexibility in the USA as well as the UK since the late 1980s, the speed of macroeconomic adjustment is more marked in the UK economy post-1987, possibly reflecting the UK labour market reforms of the Thatcher government in the 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presidents shape the economy; the economy shapes presidencies. Yet analyses of presidential influence over the economy usually examine this interplay through an excessively narrow focus: the ability of presidents to shape short-term economic outcomes, particularly as these affect their own reelection prospects. Here, drawing on work in comparative political economy, we ask about the capacity of presidents to influence long-term economic developments, particularly the degree to which the economy produces broadly distributed growth. Focusing on the transformation of American tax policy over the last generation, we stress the constraints and opportunities that come from 'durable policy coalitions' of partisans, activists, and organized economic interests seeking enduring shifts in governance. We develop this argument in part through a contrast with the influential views of Larry Bartels, who claims that presidents have a powerful immediate impact on economic inequality. We suggest that presidents are generally much more constrained, while attempting to clarify when and how they make a difference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scattered works by political scientists since the 1970s have reported that Democratic presidents have compiled stronger economic records than their Republican counterparts: economic growth has been higher, unemployment lower, and inequality has fallen during Democratic administrations while the opposite outcomes have occurred under Republican presidents. Recently, however, Campbell has vigorously challenged these findings. This article reexamines the data for 1949-2009 using new methods and measures, and confirms the earlier findings for unemployment and real gross domestic product (GDP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author examines several articles that appear in the journal. He discusses the impact that U.S. presidents have on economic policy, financial deregulation policies of the U.S. government, and macroeconomic management by U.S. presidents. The author argues that analysis of presidential economic management should center upon how U.S. presidents react to their particular economic circumstances and shape economic policy as opposed to simply noting how the economy performs during a specific term of office. The author also discusses the economic advice U.S. presidents receive, political coalitions and presidential leadership, and the separation of powers in the U.S. federal government.

In 2002, US net exports of advanced technology products (ATPs) registered a deficit of US$16.6 billion for the first time. By 2006, the ATP trade deficit reached US$43.7 billion. This is primarily due to China's increasing importance as an ATP import source and does not indicate a wholesale loss of US competitiveness in ATPs. Mostly, China's market share gain came at the expense of other Asian countries. This geographical shift in China's favor is due to her greater integration with Asian supply chains. Trade gravity regressions show that the USA exports more advanced technology parts and accessories to lower income countries but advanced technology capital and consumer goods imports by the USA are not correlated with the income of the import source countries. Thus, there is weak evidence that labor cost savings via foreign assembly operations dominate US ATP trade with middle and low income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of neoliberalism is explored with respect to the history of the electricity industry and policy in the USA. Rather than view 'neoliberalism' as an all-encompassing form of governmentality or a hegemonic regime, it is instead situated in a political field of competing ideologies, policies, practices, and agents that includes social liberalism, socialism, and cooperativism, with hegemonic and redistributive forms of both social liberalism and neoliberalism distinguished. The field approach enables a dynamic interpretation of the history of the electricity industry in the USA that tracks the relative role of government intervention in the economy, scale shifts in the level of government intervention, and the extent to which the policies favor elite accumulation or redistribution to less favored economic categories. The field approach also enables an analysis of local responses to market restructuring that suggest some examples of redistributive politics, even local socialism, that have emerged as a consequence of marketplace restructuring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "Great Recession," which began at year-end 2007, was precipitated by plunging real estate values, followed by borrower defaults and financial crisis for the public and private institutions that supplied loanable funds to the mortgage market. With economic growth not yet returned to trend, three years on more than 9% of the American labor force remains unemployed. Current macroeconomic events, perhaps inevitably, have been compared to those of the Great Depression of 1929-1933, both in terms of severity and of the efficacy of the public policies adopted ostensibly to restore prosperity. In this article, I review the literature on the New Deal, paying particular attention to modern scholarship emphasizing the role of presidential politics and antibusiness political rhetoric in deepening and prolonging the Great Depression. The parallels between then and now suggest that the two economic contractions had similar causes and elicited equally counterproductive policy responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most Americans need to consume more fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. This need is particularly acute among low-income individuals. This study examines the cost-effectiveness of two economic policies that use alternative policy levers available within the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly Food Stamp Program) to increase consumption of these under-consumed foods. Data from three nationally representative surveys are used to estimate demand elasticities, marginal propensity to spend on food out of food stamp benefits, and consumption amount of and spending on under-consumed foods among food stamp recipients. Results suggest that a 10% price subsidy would curtail consumption deficiencies by 4%–7% at an estimated cost of $734 million a year. When the same $734 million is used to finance food stamp benefits, consumption deficiencies are predicted to narrow by only 0.35%–0.40%. ( JEL C34, D12, Q18) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arthur Farquhar (1838–1929) was a successful manufacturer and exporter of mechanical steel farming implements who also took the time to participate in the day's free trade versus protectionism debate. His main contribution to the national tariff debate was the 1891 book Economic and Industrial Delusions: A Discussion of the Case for Protection. The book was written as a direct response to the McKinley Tariff of 1890 and is very much a polemic against the tariff by a disappointed former Republican. This article summarizes his economic analysis of the incidence of the tariff, the relationship between trade competitiveness and relative wages, and the tariff's effect on overall economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]