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This study explores the viability of using simulated monthly runoff as a proxy for landscape‐scale surface‐depression storage processes simulated by the United States Geological Survey's National Hydrologic Model (NHM) infrastructure across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two different temporal resolution model codes (daily and monthly) were run in the NHM with the same spatial discretization. Simulated values of daily surface‐depression storage (treated as a decimal fraction of maximum volume) as computed by the daily Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System (NHM‐PRMS) and normalized runoff (0 to 1) as computed by the Monthly Water Balance Model (NHM‐MWBM) were aggregated to monthly and annual values for each hydrologic response unit (HRU) in the CONUS geospatial fabric (HRU; n = 109,951) and analyzed using Spearman's rank correlation test. Correlations between simulated runoff and surface‐depression storage aggregated to monthly and annual values were compared to identify where which time scale had relatively higher correlation values across the CONUS. Results show Spearman's rank values >0.75 (highly correlated) for the monthly time scale in 28,279 HRUs (53.35%) compared to the annual time scale in 41,655 HRUs (78.58%). The geographic distribution of HRUs with highly correlated monthly values show areas where surface‐depression storage features are known to be common (e.g., Prairie Pothole Region, Florida). Research Impact Statement: Correlation between simulated runoff and surface depression storage using continental‐extent models to improve understanding and representation of surface‐depression storage processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The large, highly glacierized Copper River basin is an important water resource for the south‐central region of Alaska. Thus, information is needed on the reaction of its hydrologic timing and streamflow volumes to historical changes in climate, in order to assess the possible impact of future changes. However, the basin is remote, and therefore, it has proved difficult to collect field data in a frequent temporal and spatial manner. An extension of the distributed‐parameter, physical‐process code Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, PRMSglacier, has been specifically developed to simulate daily hydrology without requiring extensive input data. In this study, PRMSglacier was used to characterize the hydrology of the Copper River basin from 1959 to 2015. The basin was split into subbasins for specific regional climatic calibrations and finer resolution characterization. The model was calibrated and performed well against data of glacier mass balance, glacier area change, snow cover, gaged streamflow, evapotranspiration, and solar radiation. Ice melt contributed 26% of the total basin streamflow, with differences temporally from climate oscillations. Furthermore, differences were seen geographically in subbasins depending on the state of the glaciers in each subbasin. Decreasing trends in ice melt volume were mostly seen on smaller steeper glaciers responding to a critical level of glacier recession, while increasing trends in ice melt volume were mostly seen on larger valley glaciers responding to increasing temperature. The areas with substantially decreasing ice melt had decreasing streamflow, possibly indicating health concerns for the ecosystems therein. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.S. Geological Survey is developing a new geospatial hydrographic framework for the United States, called the National Hydrography Dataset Plus High Resolution (NHDPlusHR), that integrates a diversity of the best-available information, robustly supports ongoing dataset improvements, enables hydrographic generalization to derive alternate representations of the network while maintaining feature identity, and supports modern scientific computing and Internet accessibility needs. This framework is based on the High Resolution National Hydrography Dataset, the Watershed Boundaries Dataset, and elevation from the 3-D Elevation Program, and will provide an authoritative, high precision, and attribute-rich geospatial framework for surface-water information for the United States. Using this common geospatial framework will provide a consistent basis for indexing water information in the United States, eliminate redundancy, and harmonize access to, and exchange of water information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface-depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System ( PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953-2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference in total streamflow, but streamflow simulations using dynamic land cover parameters for a highly altered subwatershed clearly demonstrate the effects of changing land cover on simulated streamflow. Incorporating dynamic parameterization in these highly altered watersheds can reduce the predictive uncertainty in simulations of streamflow using PRMS. Hydrologic models that do not consider the projected changes in land cover may be inadequate for water resource management planning for future conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to apply a hydrologic model to large numbers of basins for forecasting purposes requires a quick and effective calibration strategy. This paper presents a step wise, multiple objective, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration. This procedure includes the sequential calibration of a model's simulation of solar radiation (SR), potential evapotranspiration (PET), water balance, and daily runoff. The procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Yampa River basin of Colorado. This process assures that intermediate states of the model (SR and PET on a monthly mean basis), as well as the water balance and components of the daily hydrograph are simulated consistently with measured values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]