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Background In HCV-infected cirrhotic patients with successfully treated early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the time to HCC recurrence and the effects of sustained viral eradication (SVR) by interferon (IFN)-based or IFN-free regimens on HCC recurrence remain unclear. Aim To perform an indirect comparison of time to recurrence (TTR) in patients with successfully treated early HCC and active HCV infection with those of patients with SVR by IFN-based and by IFN-free regimens. Methods We evaluated 443 patients with HCV-related cirrhosis and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage A/0 HCC who had a complete radiological response after curative resection or ablation. Active HCV infection was present in 328, selected from the Italian Liver Cancer group cohort; 58 patients had SVR achieved by IFN-free regimens after HCC cure, and 57 patients had SVR achieved by IFN-based regimens after HCC cure. Individual data of patients in the last two groups were extracted from available publications. Results TTR by Kaplan-Meier curve was significantly lower in patients with active HCV infection compared with those with SVR both by IFN-free ( P = 0.02) and by IFN-based ( P < 0.001) treatments. TTR was similar in patients with SVR by IFN-free or by IFN-based ( P = 0.49) strategies. Conclusion In HCV-infected, successfully treated patients with early HCC, SVR obtained by IFN-based or IFN-free regimens significantly reduce tumour recurrence without differences related to the anti-viral strategy used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Morphological, haemodynamic and clinical stages of cirrhosis have been proposed, although no definite staging system is yet accepted for clinical practice. Aim To investigate whether clinical complications of cirrhosis may define different prognostic disease stages. Methods Analysis of the database from a prospective inception cohort of 494 patients. Decompensation was defined by ascites, bleeding, jaundice or encephalopathy. Explored potential prognostic stages: 1, compensated cirrhosis without oesophago-gastric varices; 2, compensated cirrhosis with varices; 3, bleeding without other complications; 4, first nonbleeding decompensation; 5, any second decompensating event. Patient flow across stages was assessed by a competing risks analysis. Results Major patient characteristics were: 199 females, 295 males, 404 HCV+, 377 compensated, 117 decompensated cirrhosis. The mean follow-up was 145 ± 109 months without dropouts. Major events: 380 deaths, 326 oesophago-gastric varices, 283 ascites, 158 bleeding, 146 encephalopathy, 113 jaundice, 126 hepatocellular carcinoma and 19 liver transplantation. Patients entering each prognostic stage along the disease course were: 202, stage 1; 216, stage 2; 75 stage 3; 206 stage 4; 213 stage 5. Five-year transition rate towards a different stage, for stages 1-4 was 34.5%, 42%, 65% and 78%, respectively ( P < 0.0001); 5-year mortality for stages 1-5 was 1.5%, 10%, 20%, 30% and 88% respectively ( P < 0.0001). An exploratory analysis showed that this patient stratification may configure a prognostic system independent of the Child-Pugh score, Model for End Stage Liver Disease and comorbidity. Conclusion The development of oesophago-gastric varices and decompensating events in cirrhosis identify five prognostic stages with significantly increasing mortality risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A letter to the editor is presented in response to the article "MTHFR C677T mutations in liver cirrhosis with and without portal vein thrombosis," published in a previous issue of "Liver International."

Background: The Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic system for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has recently been proposed and validated. We sought to explore the relationship among the ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables (ie tumour stage, functional score based on performance status and Child-Pugh score, and alpha-fetoprotein), treatment selection and survival outcome in HCC patients., Patients and Methods: We analysed 4,867 consecutive HCC patients undergoing six main treatment strategies (liver transplantation, LT; liver resection, LR; ablation, ABL; intra-arterial therapy, IAT; Sorafenib, SOR; and best supportive care, BSC) and enrolled during 2002-2015 in a multicenter Italian database. In order to control pretreatment imbalances in observed variables, a machine learning methodology was used and inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) was calculated. An IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model that included ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables, treatment period and treatment strategy was then developed. The survival benefit of HCC treatments was described as a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), using BSC as a reference value and as predicted median survival., Results: After the IPTW, the six treatment groups became well balanced for most baseline characteristics. In the IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model, treatment strategy was found to be the strongest survival predictor, irrespective of ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables and treatment period. The survival benefit of different therapies over BSC was: LT = 0.19 (0.18-0.20); RES = 0.40 (0.37-0.42); ABL 0.42 (0.40-0.44); IAT = 0.58 (0.55-0.61); SOR = 0.92 (0.87-0.97). This multivariate model was then used to predict median survival for each therapy within each ITA.LI.CA stage., Conclusion: The concept of therapeutic hierarchy was established within each ITA.LI.CA stage., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Metabolic disorders are well-known risk factors for HCC. Conversely, their impact on the natural history of HCC is not established. This study aimed at evaluating the impact of metabolic disorders on clinical features, treatment and survival of HCC patients regardless of its aetiology., Methods: We analysed the ITA.LI.CA database regarding 839 HCC patients prospectively collected. The following metabolic features were analysed: BMI, diabetes, arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and hypertriglyceridaemia. According to these features, patients were divided into 3 groups: 0-1, 2 and 3-5 metabolic features., Results: As compared with patients with 0-1 metabolic features, patients with 3-5 features showed lower percentage of HCC diagnosis on surveillance (P = .021), larger tumours (P = .038), better liver function (higher percentage of Child-Pugh class A [P = .007] and MELD < 10 [P = .003]), higher percentage of metastasis (P = .024) and lower percentage of portal vein thrombosis (P = .010). The BCLC stage and treatment options were similar among the 3 groups, with the exception of a less frequent access to loco-regional therapies for BCLC stage B patients with 3-5 features (P = .012). Overall survival and survival according to BCLC stage and/or treatment did not significantly differ among the 3 groups. Only using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, diabetic patients showed a lower survival (P = .046). MELD score, HCC morphology, nodule size, BCLC stage, portal vein thrombosis and metastasis were independent predictors of lead-time adjusted survival., Conclusions: Our "real world" study suggests that metabolic disorders shape the clinical presentation of HCC but do not seem to play a major role in setting patient survival., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: Determining risk for recurrence or survival after curative resection or ablation in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is important for stratifying patients according to expected outcomes in future studies of adjuvant therapy in the era of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). The aims of this meta-analysis were to estimate the recurrence and survival probabilities of HCV-related early HCC following complete response after potentially curative treatment and to identify predictors of recurrence and survival., Methods: Studies reporting time-dependent outcomes (HCC recurrence or death) after potentially curative treatment of HCV-related early HCC were identified in MEDLINE through May 2016. Data on patient populations and outcomes were extracted from each study by three independent observers and combined using a distribution-free summary survival curve. Primary outcomes were actuarial probabilities of recurrence and survival., Results: Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria. Pooled estimates of actuarial recurrence rates were 7.4% at 6 months and 47.0% at 2 years. Pooled estimates of actuarial survival rates were 79.8% at 3 years and 58.6% at 5 years. Heterogeneity among studies was highly significant for all outcomes. By univariate meta-regression analyses, lower serum albumin, randomized controlled trial study design and follow-up were independently associated with higher recurrence risk, whereas tumour size and alpha-foetoprotein levels were associated with higher mortality., Conclusions: This meta-analysis showed that recurrence risk and survival are extremely variable in patients with successfully treated HCV-related HCC, providing a useful benchmark for indirect comparisons of the benefits of DAAs and for a correct design of randomized controlled trials in the adjuvant setting., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer intermediate stage (BCLC-B) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes extremely heterogeneous patients in terms of tumour burden and liver function. Transarterial-chemoembolization (TACE) is the first-line treatment for these patients although it may be risky/useless for someone, while others could undergo curative treatments. This study assesses the treatment type performed in a large cohort of BCLC-B patients and its outcome., Methods: Retrospective analysis of 485 consecutive BCLC-B patients from the ITA.LI.CA database diagnosed with naïve HCC after 1999. Patients were stratified by treatment., Results: 29 patients (6%) were lost to follow-up before receiving treatment. Treatment distribution was: TACE (233, 51.1%), curative treatments (145 patients, 31.8%), sorafenib (18, 3.9%), other (39, 8.5%), best supportive care (BSC) (21, 4.6%). Median survival (95% CI) was 45 months (37.4-52.7) for curative treatments, 30 (24.7-35.3) for TACE, 14 (10.5-17.5) for sorafenib, 14 (5.2-22.7) for other treatments and 10 (6.0-14.2) for BSC (P<.0001). Independent prognosticators were gender and treatment. Curative treatments reduced mortality (HR 0.197, 95%CI: 0.098-0.395) more than TACE (HR 0.408, 95%CI: 0.211-0.789) (P<.0001) as compared with BSC. Propensity score matching confirmed the superiority of curative therapies over TACE., Conclusions: In everyday practice TACE represents the first-line therapy in an half of patients with naïve BCLC-B HCC since treatment choice is driven not only by liver function and nodule characteristics, but also by contraindications to procedures, comorbidities, age and patient opinion. The treatment type is an independent prognostic factor in BCLC-B patients and curative options offer the best outcome., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma is changing worldwide. This study aimed at evaluating the changing scenario of aetiology, presentation, management and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy during the last 15 years., Methods: Retrospective analysis of the ITA.LI.CA (Italian Liver Cancer) database including 5192 hepatocellular carcinoma patients managed in 24 centres from 2000 to 2014. Patients were divided into three groups according to the date of cancer diagnosis (2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2014)., Results: The main results were as follows: (i) progressive patient aging; (ii) progressive expansion of non-viral cases and, namely, of "metabolic" hepatocellular carcinomas; (iii) increasing proportion of hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed during a correct (semi-annual) surveillance programme; (iv) favourable cancer stage migration; (v) increased use of radiofrequency ablation to the detriment of percutaneous ethanol injection; (vi) improved outcomes of ablative and transarterial treatments; (vii) improved overall survival (adjusted for the lead time in surveyed patients), particularly after 2009, of both viral and non-viral patients presenting with an early- or intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma., Conclusions: During the last 15 years several aetiological and clinical features of hepatocellular carcinoma patients have changed, as their management. The observed improvement of overall survival was owing both to the wider use of semi-annual surveillance, expanding the proportion of tumours that qualified for curative treatments, and to the improved outcome of loco-regional treatments., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)