1. Regional Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Mexican Subduction Zone From Stochastic Slip Models.
- Author
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Salazar‐Monroy, E. F., Melgar, D., Jaimes, M. A., and Ramirez‐Guzman, L.
- Subjects
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SUBDUCTION zones , *PROBABILISTIC databases , *TSUNAMI hazard zones , *HAZARDOUS geographic environments , *STOCHASTIC analysis - Abstract
The Mexican subduction zone is prone to large earthquakes that impact populated coastal and inland cities due to strong shaking and can generate potentially disastrous tsunamis. Even though the population and infrastructure on the Mexican Pacific coast may experience tsunamis, only sparse instrumentation and scarce tsunami observations exist for both, historical and instrumental, records. This study presents a probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis that can provide information for managing and assessing risks in the region. We use ensembles of numerical tsunami simulations to estimate the probability of exceedance of the maximum tsunami amplitudes, considering the contribution of near sources and slip heterogeneities, for return periods of 100, 500, and 1,000 years. According to 7,946 simulated scenarios, the amplitudes can reach up to 9.5 m along the shoreline. Moreover, tsunami hazard maps, curves, and disaggregation analyses reveal critical hazard points along the coasts of the states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, and Oaxaca. Plain Language Summary: Tsunamigenic earthquakes are a critical problem in active subduction zones due to the potential of spreading damage in coastal cities, and given the necessity of know the possible effects, hazard assessments have an important role. In this study, we employed an ensemble of scenarios generated from available geophysical and topographic databases for the Mexican Subduction Zone, to estimate and analyze tsunami hazard with curves and maps, by using the tsunami amplitudes recorded from numerical simulations. Finally, we remark the necessity of a constant re‐evaluation of tsunami hazard, due to amplitude sensibility with the resolution of databases, especially in Oaxaca and Chiapas states, where the databases are coarser. Key Points: An ensemble of stochastic slip models is generated by gathering geophysical databases for the Mexican subduction zone and ran a series of tsunami numerical simulationsThe authors estimated tsunami hazard curves and maps in the Mexican Pacific coast using numerical simulations that employed kinematic seafloor deformation models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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