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Measuring pre-diagnostic blood metabolites may help identify novel risk factors for prostate cancer. Using data from 4387 matched case-control pairs from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, we investigated the associations of 148 individual metabolites and three previously defined metabolite patterns with prostate cancer risk. Metabolites were measured by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio per standard deviation increase in log metabolite concentration and metabolite patterns (OR1SD) for prostate cancer overall, and for advanced, high-grade, aggressive. We corrected for multiple testing using the Benjamini-Hochberg method. Overall, there were no associations between specific metabolites or metabolite patterns and overall, aggressive, or high-grade prostate cancer that passed the multiple testing threshold (padj <0.05). Six phosphatidylcholines (PCs) were inversely associated with advanced prostate cancer diagnosed at or within 10 years of blood collection. metabolite patterns 1 (64 PCs and three hydroxysphingomyelins) and 2 (two acylcarnitines, glutamate, ornithine, and taurine) were also inversely associated with advanced prostate cancer; when stratified by follow-up time, these associations were observed for diagnoses at or within 10 years of recruitment (OR 1SD 0.80, 95% CI 0.66-0.96 and 0.76, 0.59-0.97, respectively) but were weaker after longer follow-up (0.95, 0.82-1.10 and 0.85, 0.67-1.06). Pattern 3 (8 lyso PCs) was associated with prostate cancer death (0.82, 0.68-0.98). Our results suggest that the plasma metabolite profile changes in response to the presence of prostate cancer up to a decade before detection of advanced-stage disease., (© 2024 The Author(s). International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most lethal cancers with patients having unresectable or metastatic disease at diagnosis, with poor prognosis and very short survival. Given that genetic variation within autophagy-related genes influences autophagic flux and susceptibility to solid cancers, we decided to investigate whether 55,583 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 234 autophagy-related genes could influence the risk of developing PDAC in three large independent cohorts of European ancestry including 12,754 PDAC cases and 324,926 controls. The meta-analysis of these populations identified, for the first time, the association of the BID rs9604789 variant with an increased risk of developing the disease (OR Meta  = 1.31, p = 9.67 × 10 -6 ). We also confirmed the association of TP63 rs1515496 and TP63 rs35389543 variants with PDAC risk (OR = 0.89, p = 6.27 × 10 -8 and OR = 1.16, p = 2.74 × 10 -5 ). Although it is known that BID induces autophagy and TP63 promotes cell growth, cell motility and invasion, we also found that carriers of the TP63 rs1515496G allele had increased numbers of FOXP3+ Helios+ T regulatory cells and CD45RA+ T regulatory cells (p = 7.67 × 10 -4 and p = 1.56 × 10 -3 ), but also decreased levels of CD4+ T regulatory cells (p = 7.86 × 10 -4 ). These results were in agreement with research suggesting that the TP63 rs1515496 variant alters binding sites for FOXA1 and CTCF, which are transcription factors involved in modulating specific subsets of regulatory T cells. In conclusion, this study identifies BID as new susceptibility locus for PDAC and confirms previous studies suggesting that the TP63 gene is involved in the development of PDAC. This study also suggests new pathogenic mechanisms of the TP63 locus in PDAC., (© 2024 The Author(s). International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Advanced glycation end-products (AGEs), formed endogenously or obtained exogenously from diet, may contribute to chronic inflammation, intracellular signaling alterations, and pathogenesis of several chronic diseases including colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the role of AGEs in CRC survival is less known. The associations of pre-diagnostic circulating AGEs and their soluble receptor (sRAGE) with CRC-specific and overall mortality were estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression among 1369 CRC cases in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Concentrations of major plasma AGEs, N ε -[carboxy-methyl]lysine (CML), N ε -[carboxy-ethyl]lysine (CEL) and N δ -[5-hydro-5-methyl-4-imidazolon-2-yl]-ornithine (MG-H1), were measured using ultra-performance liquid chromatography mass-spectrometry. sRAGE was assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Over a mean follow-up period of 96 months, 693 deaths occurred of which 541 were due to CRC. Individual and combined AGEs were not statistically significantly associated with CRC-specific or overall mortality. However, there was a possible interaction by sex for CEL (P interaction  = .05). Participants with higher sRAGE had a higher risk of dying from CRC (HR Q5vs.Q1  = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.21-2.30, P trend  = .02) or any cause (HR Q5vs.Q1  = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.05-1.83, P trend  = .09). These associations tended to be stronger among cases with diabetes (P interaction  = .03) and pre-diabetes (P interaction  <.01) before CRC diagnosis. Pre-diagnostic AGEs were not associated with CRC-specific and overall mortality in individuals with CRC. However, a positive association was observed for sRAGE. Our findings may stimulate further research on the role of AGEs and sRAGE in survival among cancer patients with special emphasis on potential effect modifications by sex and diabetes., (© 2024 UICC.)

Thyroid cancer (TC) is substantially more common in women than in men, pointing to a possible role of sex steroid hormones. We investigated the association between circulating sex steroid hormones, sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) and the risk of differentiated TC in men and women within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) cohort. During follow-up, we identified 333 first primary incident cases of differentiated TC (152 in pre/peri-menopausal women, 111 in post-menopausal women, and 70 in men) and 706 cancer-free controls. Women taking exogenous hormones at blood donation were excluded. Plasma concentrations of testosterone, androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone, estradiol, estrone and progesterone (in pre-menopausal women only) were performed using liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry method. SHBG concentrations were measured by immunoassay. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression models adjusted for possible confounders. No significant associations were observed in men and postmenopausal women, while a borderline significant increase in differentiated TC risk was observed with increasing testosterone (adjusted OR T3 vs T1: 1.68, 95% CI: 0.96-2.92, p trend  = .06) and androstenedione concentrations in pre/perimenopausal women (adjusted OR T3 vs T1: 1.78, 95% CI: 0.96-3.30, p trend  = .06, respectively). A borderline decrease in risk was observed for the highest progesterone/estradiol ratio (adjusted OR T3 vs T1: 0.54, 95% CI: 0.28-1.05, p trend  = .07). Overall, our results do not support a major role of circulating sex steroids in the etiology of differentiated TC in post-menopausal women and men but may suggest an involvement of altered sex steroid production in pre-menopausal women., (© 2024 The World Health Organization. The World Health Organization retains copyright and all other rights in the manuscript of this article as submitted for publication.)

Resistin is a protein involved in inflammation and angiogenesis processes and may play a role in the progression of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, it remains unclear whether resistin is associated with increased mortality after CRC diagnosis. We examined pre-diagnostic serum resistin concentrations in relation to CRC-specific and all-cause mortality among 1343 incident CRC cases from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. For CRC-specific mortality as the primary outcome, hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated from competing risk analyses based on cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models and further in sensitivity analyses using Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards models. For all-cause mortality as the secondary outcome, Cox proportional hazards models were used. Subgroup analyses were performed by sex, tumor subsite, tumor stage, body mass index and time to CRC diagnosis. Resistin was measured on a median of 4.8 years before CRC diagnosis. During a median follow-up of 8.2 years, 474 deaths from CRC and 147 deaths from other causes were observed. Resistin concentrations were not associated with CRC-specific mortality (HR Q4vsQ1  = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.73-1.23; P trend  = .97; and HR per doubling of resistin concentration  = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.84-1.19; P = .98) or all-cause mortality. Results from competing risk (sensitivity) analysis were similar. No associations were found in any subgroup analyses. These findings suggest no association between pre-diagnostic circulating resistin concentrations and CRC-specific or all-cause mortality among persons with CRC, and the potential insignificance of resistin in CRC progression., (© 2024 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Glyceraldehyde-derived advanced glycation end products (glycer-AGEs) could contribute to colorectal cancer development and progression due to their pro-oxidative and pro-inflammatory properties. However, the association of glycer-AGEs with mortality after colorectal cancer diagnosis has not been previously investigated. Circulating glycer-AGEs were measured by competitive ELISA. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations of circulating glycer-AGEs concentrations with CRC-specific and all-cause mortality among 1034 colorectal cancer (CRC) cases identified within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study between 1993 and 2013. During a mean of 48 months of follow-up, 529 participants died (409 from CRC). Glycer-AGEs were statistically significantly positively associated with CRC-specific (HR Q5 vs Q1  = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.04-2.25, P trend  = .002) and all-cause (HR Q5 vs Q1  = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.16-2.26, P trend  < .001) mortality among individuals with CRC. There was suggestion of a stronger association between glycer-AGEs and CRC-specific mortality among patients with distal colon cancer (per SD increment: HR proximal colon  = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.74-1.42; HR distal colon  = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.20-1.91; P effect modification  = .02). The highest HR was observed among CRC cases in the highest body mass index (BMI) and glycer-AGEs category relative to lowest BMI and glycer-AGEs category for both CRC-specific (HR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.02-3.01) and all-cause mortality (HR = 2.15, 95% CI: 1.33-3.47), although no statistically significant effect modification was observed. Our study found that prediagnostic circulating glycer-AGEs are positively associated with CRC-specific and all-cause mortality among individuals with CRC. Further investigations in other populations and stratifying by tumor location and BMI are warranted., (© 2023 UICC.)

The EarlyCDT-Lung test is a blood-based autoantibody assay intended to identify high-risk individuals for low-dose computed tomography lung cancer screening. However, there is a paucity of evidence on the performance of the EarlyCDT-Lung test in ever-smokers. We conducted a nested case-control study within two prospective cohorts to evaluate the risk-discriminatory performance of the EarlyCDT-Lung test using prediagnostic blood samples from 154 future lung cancer cases and 154 matched controls. Cases were selected from those who had ever smoked and had a prediagnostic blood sample <3 years prior to diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the association between EarlyCDT-Lung test results and lung cancer risk. Sensitivity and specificity of the EarlyCDT-Lung test were calculated in all subjects and subgroups based on age, smoking history, lung cancer stage, sample collection time before diagnosis and year of sample collection. The overall lung cancer odds ratios were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.34-2.30) for a moderate risk EarlyCDT-Lung test result and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.48-2.47) for a high-risk test result compared to no significant test result. The overall sensitivity was 8.4% (95% CI: 4.6-14) and overall specificity was 92% (95% CI: 87-96) when considering a high-risk result as positive. Stratified analysis indicated higher sensitivity (17%, 95% CI: 7.2-32.1) in subjects with blood drawn up to 1 year prior to diagnosis. In conclusion, our study does not support a role of the EarlyCDT-Lung test in identifying the high-risk subjects in ever-smokers for lung cancer screening in the EPIC and NSHDS cohorts., (© 2022 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

PROBASE is a population-based, randomized trial of 46 495 German men recruited at age 45 to compare effects of risk-adapted prostate cancer (PCa) screening starting either immediately at age 45, or at a deferred age of 50 years. Based on prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, men are classified into risk groups with different screening intervals: low-risk (<1.5 ng/ml, 5-yearly screening), intermediate-risk (1.5-2.99 ng/ml, 2 yearly), and high risk (>3 ng/ml, recommendation for immediate biopsy). Over the first 6 years of study participation, attendance rates to scheduled screening visits varied from 70.5% to 79.4%, depending on the study arm and risk group allocation, in addition 11.2% to 25.4% of men reported self-initiated PSA tests outside the PROBASE protocol. 38.5% of participants had a history of digital rectal examination or PSA testing prior to recruitment to PROBASE, frequently associated with family history of PCa. These men showed higher rates (33% to 57%, depending on subgroups) of self-initiated PSA testing in-between PROBASE screening rounds. In the high-risk groups (both arms), the biopsy acceptance rate was 64% overall, but was higher among men with screening PSA ≥4 ng/ml (>71%) and with PIRADS ≥3 findings upon multiparameter magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) (>72%), compared with men with PSA ≥3 to 4 ng/ml (57%) or PIRADS score ≤ 2 (59%). Overall, PROBASE shows good acceptance of a risk-adapted PCa screening strategy in Germany. Implementation of such a strategy should be accompanied by a well-structured communication, to explain not only the benefits but also the harms of PSA screening., (© 2022 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Experimental evidence suggests that alcohol induces cutaneous carcinogenesis, yet epidemiological studies on the link between alcohol intake and skin cancer have been inconsistent. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) is a prospective cohort initiated in 1992 in 10 European countries. Alcohol intake at baseline and average lifetime alcohol intake were assessed using validated country-specific dietary and lifestyle questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated in Cox models. A total of 14 037 skin cancer cases (melanoma: n = 2457; basal-cell carcinoma (BCC): n = 8711; squamous-cell carcinoma (SCC): n = 1928; unknown: n = 941) were identified among 450 112 participants (average follow-up: 15 years). Baseline alcohol intake was positively associated with SCC (>15 vs 0.1-4.9 g/day: HR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.17-1.77; P trend  = .001), BCC (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.01-1.23; P trend  = .04), and melanoma risks in men (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 0.95-1.44; P trend  = .17), while associations were more modest in women (SCC: HR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.90-1.30; P trend  = .13; BCC: HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.00-1.17, P trend  = .03; melanoma: HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.80-1.08, P trend  = .13). Associations were similar for lifetime alcohol intake, with an attenuated linear trend. Lifetime liquor/spirit intake was positively associated with melanoma (fourth vs first quartile: HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.08-1.99; P trend  = .0009) and BCC risks in men (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.04-1.31; P trend  = .14). Baseline and lifetime intakes of wine were associated with BCC risk (HR = 1.25 in men; HR = 1.11-1.12; in women). No statistically significant associations were found between beverage types and SCC risk. Intake of beer was not associated with skin cancer risk. Our study suggests positive relationships between alcohol intake and skin cancer risk, which may have important implications for the primary prevention of skin cancer., (© 2022 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

A large number of variants identified through clinical genetic testing in disease susceptibility genes, are of uncertain significance (VUS). Following the recommendations of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) and Association for Molecular Pathology (AMP), the frequency in case-control datasets (PS4 criterion), can inform their interpretation. We present a novel case-control likelihood ratio-based method that incorporates gene-specific age-related penetrance. We demonstrate the utility of this method in the analysis of simulated and real datasets. In the analyses of simulated data, the likelihood ratio method was more powerful compared to other methods. Likelihood ratios were calculated for a case-control dataset of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC), and compared with logistic regression results. A larger number of variants reached evidence in favor of pathogenicity, and a substantial number of variants had evidence against pathogenicity - findings that would not have been reached using other case-control analysis methods. Our novel method provides greater power to classify rare variants compared to classical case-control methods. As an initiative from the ENIGMA Analytical Working Group, we provide user-friendly scripts and pre-formatted excel calculators for implementation of the method for rare variants in BRCA1 , BRCA2 and other high-risk genes with known penetrance.

We aimed to explore the underlying reasons that estimates of overdiagnosis vary across and within low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) lung cancer screening trials. We conducted a systematic review to identify estimates of overdiagnosis from randomised controlled trials of LDCT screening. We then analysed the association of Ps (the excess incidence of lung cancer as a proportion of screen-detected cases) with postscreening follow-up time using a linear random effects meta-regression model. Separately, we analysed annual Ps estimates from the US National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) and German Lung Cancer Screening Intervention Trial (LUSI) using exponential decay models with asymptotes. We conducted stratified analyses to investigate participant characteristics associated with Ps using the extended follow-up data from NLST. Among 12 overdiagnosis estimates from 8 trials, the postscreening follow-up ranged from 3.8 to 9.3 years, and Ps ranged from -27.0% (ITALUNG, 8.3 years follow-up) to 67.2% (DLCST, 5.0 years follow-up). Across trials, 39.1% of the variation in Ps was explained by postscreening follow-up time. The annual changes in Ps were -3.5% and -3.9% in the NLST and LUSI trials, respectively. Ps was predicted to plateau at 2.2% for NLST and 9.2% for LUSI with hypothetical infinite follow-up. In NLST, Ps increased with age from -14.9% (55-59 years) to 21.7% (70-74 years), and time trends in Ps varied by histological type. The findings suggest that differences in postscreening follow-up time partially explain variation in overdiagnosis estimates across lung cancer screening trials. Estimates of overdiagnosis should be interpreted in the context of postscreening follow-up and population characteristics., (© 2022 The World Health Organization. The World Health Organization retains copyright and all other rights in the manuscript of this article as submitted for publication.)

Previous studies had limited power to assess the associations of testosterone with aggressive disease as a primary endpoint. Further, the association of genetically predicted testosterone with aggressive disease is not known. We investigated the associations of calculated free and measured total testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) with aggressive, overall and early-onset prostate cancer. In blood-based analyses, odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for prostate cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression from prospective analysis of biomarker concentrations in the Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group (up to 25 studies, 14 944 cases and 36 752 controls, including 1870 aggressive prostate cancers). In Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses, using instruments identified using UK Biobank (up to 194 453 men) and outcome data from PRACTICAL (up to 79 148 cases and 61 106 controls, including 15 167 aggressive cancers), ORs were estimated using the inverse-variance weighted method. Free testosterone was associated with aggressive disease in MR analyses (OR per 1 SD = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.08-1.40). In blood-based analyses there was no association with aggressive disease overall, but there was heterogeneity by age at blood collection (OR for men aged <60 years 1.14, CI = 1.02-1.28; P het  = .0003: inverse association for older ages). Associations for free testosterone were positive for overall prostate cancer (MR: 1.20, 1.08-1.34; blood-based: 1.03, 1.01-1.05) and early-onset prostate cancer (MR: 1.37, 1.09-1.73; blood-based: 1.08, 0.98-1.19). SHBG and total testosterone were inversely associated with overall prostate cancer in blood-based analyses, with null associations in MR analysis. Our results support free testosterone, rather than total testosterone, in the development of prostate cancer, including aggressive subgroups., (© 2022 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Previous studies have suggested that components of one-carbon metabolism, particularly circulating vitamin B6, have an etiological role in renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Vitamin B6 is a cofactor in the transsulfuration pathway. We sought to holistically investigate the role of the transsulfuration pathway in RCC risk. We conducted a nested case-control study (455 RCC cases and 455 matched controls) within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Plasma samples from the baseline visit were analyzed for metabolites of the transsulfuration pathway, including pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP, the biologically active form of vitamin B6), homocysteine, serine, cystathionine, and cysteine, in addition to folate. Bayesian conditional logistic regression was used to estimate associations of metabolites with RCC risk as well as interactions with established RCC risk factors. Circulating PLP and cysteine were inversely associated with RCC risk, and these associations were not attenuated after adjustment for other transsulfuration metabolites (odds ratio (OR) and 90% credible interval (CrI) per 1 SD increase in log concentration: 0.76 [0.66, 0.87]; 0.81 [0.66, 0.96], respectively). A comparison of joint metabolite profiles suggested substantially greater RCC risk for the profile representative of low overall transsulfuration function compared to high function (OR 2.70 [90% CrI 1.26, 5.70]). We found some statistical evidence of interactions of cysteine with body mass index, and PLP and homocysteine with smoking status, on their associations with RCC risk. In conclusion, we found evidence suggesting that the transsulfuration pathway may play a role in metabolic dysregulation leading to RCC development., (© 2022 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

There is no generally accepted screening strategy for prostate cancer (PCa). From February 2014 to December 2019 a randomized trial (PROBASE) recruited 46 642 men at age 45 to determine the efficacy of risk-adapted prostate-specific antigen-based (PSA) screening, starting at either 45 or 50 years. PSA tests are used to classify participants into a low (<1.5 ng/mL), intermediate (1.5-2.99 ng/mL) or high (≥3 ng/mL) risk group. In cases of confirmed PSA values ≥3 ng/mL participants are recommended a prostate biopsy with multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI). Half of the participants (N = 23 341) were offered PSA screening immediately at age 45; the other half (N = 23 301) were offered digital rectal examination (DRE) with delayed PSA screening at age 50. Of 23 301 participants who accepted baseline PSA testing in the immediate screening arm, 89.2% fell into the low, 9.3% into intermediate, and 1.5% (N = 344) into the high risk group. Repeat PSA measurement confirmed high-risk status for 186 men (0.8%), of whom 120 (64.5%) underwent a biopsy. A total of 48 PCas was detected (overall prevalence 0.2%), of which 15 had International Society of Uropathology (ISUP) grade 1, 29 had ISUP 2 and only 4 had ISUP ≥3 cancers. In the delayed screening arm, 23 194 participants were enrolled and 6537 underwent a DRE with 57 suspicious findings, two of which showed PCa (both ISUP 1; detection rate 0.03%). In conclusion, the prevalence of screen-detected aggressive (ISUP ≥3) PCa in 45-year-old men is very low. DRE did not turn out effective for early detection of PCa., (© 2022 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Bile acids (BAs) play different roles in cancer development. Some are carcinogenic and BA signaling is also involved in various metabolic, inflammatory and immune-related processes. The liver is the primary site of BA synthesis. Liver dysfunction and microbiome compositional changes, such as during hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, may modulate BA metabolism increasing concentration of carcinogenic BAs. Observations from prospective cohorts are sparse. We conducted a study (233 HCC case-control pairs) nested within a large observational prospective cohort with blood samples taken at recruitment when healthy with follow-up over time for later cancer development. A targeted metabolomics method was used to quantify 17 BAs (primary/secondary/tertiary; conjugated/unconjugated) in prediagnostic plasma. Odd ratios (OR) for HCC risk associations were calculated by multivariable conditional logistic regression models. Positive HCC risk associations were observed for the molar sum of all BAs (OR doubling  = 2.30, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.76-3.00), and choline- and taurine-conjugated BAs. Relative concentrations of BAs showed positive HCC risk associations for glycoholic acid and most taurine-conjugated BAs. We observe an association between increased HCC risk and higher levels of major circulating BAs, from several years prior to tumor diagnosis and after multivariable adjustment for confounders and liver functionality. Increase in BA concentration is accompanied by a shift in BA profile toward higher proportions of taurine-conjugated BAs, indicating early alterations of BA metabolism with HCC development. Future studies are needed to assess BA profiles for improved stratification of patients at high HCC risk and to determine whether supplementation with certain BAs may ameliorate liver dysfunction., (© 2021 UICC.)

Dysregulation of tryptophan metabolism has been linked to colorectal tumorigenesis; however, epidemiological studies investigating tryptophan metabolites in relation to colorectal cancer risk are limited. We studied associations of plasma tryptophan, serotonin and kynurenine with colon cancer risk in two studies with cancer patients and controls, and in one prospective cohort: ColoCare Study (110 patients/153 controls), the Colorectal Cancer Study of Austria (CORSA; 46 patients/390 controls) and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC; 456 matched case-control pairs). Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for colon cancer risk. Tryptophan was inversely associated with colon cancer risk in ColoCare (OR per 1-SD = 0.44; 95% CI, 0.31-0.64) and EPIC (OR per 1-SD = 0.86; 95% CI, 0.74-0.99). Comparing detectable vs nondetectable levels, serotonin was positively associated with colon cancer in CORSA (OR = 6.39; 95% CI, 3.61-11.3) and EPIC (OR = 2.03; 95% CI, 1.20-3.40). Kynurenine was inversely associated with colon cancer in ColoCare (OR per 1-SD = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.55-0.98), positively associated in CORSA (OR per 1-SD = 1.79; 95% CI, 1.27-2.52), while no association was observed in EPIC. The kynurenine-to-tryptophan ratio was positively associated with colon cancer in ColoCare (OR per 1-SD = 1.38; 95% CI, 1.03-1.84) and CORSA (OR per 1-SD = 1.44; 95% CI, 1.06-1.96), but not in EPIC. These results suggest that higher plasma tryptophan may be associated with lower colon cancer risk, while increased serotonin may be associated with a higher risk of colon cancer. The kynurenine-to-tryptophan ratio may also reflect altered tryptophan catabolism during colon cancer development., (© 2021 UICC.)

Randomised clinical trials have shown the efficacy of computed tomography lung cancer screening, initiating discussions on whether and how to implement population-based screening programs. Due to smoking behaviour being the primary risk-factor for lung cancer and part of the criteria for determining screening eligibility, lung cancer screening is inherently risk-based. In fact, the selection of high-risk individuals has been shown to be essential in implementing lung cancer screening in a cost-effective manner. Furthermore, studies have shown that further risk-stratification may improve screening efficiency, allow personalisation of the screening interval and reduce health disparities. However, implementing risk-based lung cancer screening programs also requires overcoming a number of challenges. There are indications that risk-based approaches can negatively influence the trade-off between individual benefits and harms if not applied thoughtfully. Large-scale implementation of targeted, risk-based screening programs has been limited thus far. Consequently, questions remain on how to efficiently identify and invite high-risk individuals from the general population. Finally, while risk-based approaches may increase screening program efficiency, efficiency should be balanced with the overall impact of the screening program. In this review, we will address the opportunities and challenges in applying risk-stratification in different aspects of lung cancer screening programs, as well as the balance between screening program efficiency and impact., (© 2021 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Union for International Cancer Control.)

Alcohol consumption is causally linked to several cancers but the evidence for stomach cancer is inconclusive. In our study, the association between long-term alcohol intake and risk of stomach cancer and its subtypes was evaluated. We performed a pooled analysis of data collected at baseline from 491 714 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition and the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for incident stomach cancer in relation to lifetime alcohol intake and group-based life course intake trajectories, adjusted for potential confounders including Helicobacter pylori infection. In all, 1225 incident stomach cancers (78% noncardia) were diagnosed over 7 094 637 person-years; 984 in 382 957 study participants with lifetime alcohol intake data (5 455 507 person-years). Although lifetime alcohol intake was not associated with overall stomach cancer risk, we observed a weak positive association with noncardia cancer (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.06 per 10 g/d increment), with a HR of 1.50 (95% CI: 1.08-2.09) for ≥60 g/d compared to 0.1 to 4.9 g/d. A weak inverse association with cardia cancer (HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.87-1.00) was also observed. HRs of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.10-1.99) for noncardia and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.26-1.03) for cardia cancer were observed for a life course trajectory characterized by heavy decreasing intake compared to light stable intake (P homogeneity = .02). These associations did not differ appreciably by smoking or H pylori infection status. Limiting alcohol use during lifetime, particularly avoiding heavy use during early adulthood, might help prevent noncardia stomach cancer. Heterogeneous associations observed for cardia and noncardia cancers may indicate etiologic differences., (© 2021 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

To better understand the role of individual and lifestyle factors in human disease, an exposome-wide association study was performed to investigate within a single-study anthropometry measures and lifestyle factors previously associated with B-cell lymphoma (BCL). Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition study, 2402 incident BCL cases were diagnosed from 475 426 participants that were followed-up on average 14 years. Standard and penalized Cox regression models as well as principal component analysis (PCA) were used to evaluate 84 exposures in relation to BCL risk. Standard and penalized Cox regression models showed a positive association between anthropometric measures and BCL and multiple myeloma/plasma cell neoplasm (MM). The penalized Cox models additionally showed the association between several exposures from categories of physical activity, smoking status, medical history, socioeconomic position, diet and BCL and/or the subtypes. PCAs confirmed the individual associations but also showed additional observations. The PC5 including anthropometry, was positively associated with BCL, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and MM. There was a significant positive association between consumption of sugar and confectionary (PC11) and follicular lymphoma risk, and an inverse association between fish and shellfish and Vitamin D (PC15) and DLBCL risk. The PC1 including features of the Mediterranean diet and diet with lower inflammatory score showed an inverse association with BCL risk, while the PC7, including dairy, was positively associated with BCL and DLBCL risk. Physical activity (PC10) was positively associated with DLBCL risk among women. This study provided informative insights on the etiology of BCL., (© 2020 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Union for International Cancer Control.)

Epidemiologic studies examining the association between specific fatty acids and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk are inconclusive. We investigated the association between dietary estimates and plasma levels of individual and total saturated (SFA), monounsaturated (MUFA), industrial-processed trans (iTFA), and ruminant-sourced trans (rTFA) fatty acids, and CRC risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Baseline fatty acid intakes were estimated in 450 112 participants (6162 developed CRC, median follow-up = 15 years). In a nested case-control study, plasma phospholipid fatty acids were determined by gas chromatography in 433 colon cancer cases and 433 matched controls. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using Cox and conditional logistic regression, respectively. Dietary total SFA (highest vs lowest quintile, HR Q5vsQ1  = 0.80; 95%CI:0.69-0.92), myristic acid (HR Q5vsQ1  = 0.83, 95%CI:0.74-0.93) and palmitic acid (HR Q5vsQ1  = 0.81, 95%CI:0.70-0.93) were inversely associated with CRC risk. Plasma myristic acid was also inversely associated with colon cancer risk (highest vs lowest quartile, OR Q4vsQ1  = 0.51; 95%CI:0.32-0.83), whereas a borderline positive association was found for plasma stearic acid (OR Q4vsQ1  = 1.63; 95%CI:1.00-2.64). Dietary total MUFA was inversely associated with colon cancer (per 1-SD increment, HR 1-SD  = 0.92, 95%CI: 0.85-0.98), but not rectal cancer (HR 1-SD  = 1.04, 95%CI:0.95-1.15, P heterogeneity  = 0.027). Dietary iTFA, and particularly elaidic acid, was positively associated with rectal cancer (HR 1-SD  = 1.07, 95%CI:1.02-1.13). Our results suggest that total and individual saturated fatty acids and fatty acids of industrial origin may be relevant to the aetiology of CRC. Both dietary and plasma myristic acid levels were inversely associated with colon cancer risk, which warrants further investigation., (© 2021 UICC.)

Obesity is a risk factor for several major cancers. Associations of weight change in middle adulthood with cancer risk, however, are less clear. We examined the association of change in weight and body mass index (BMI) category during middle adulthood with 42 cancers, using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Of 241 323 participants (31% men), 20% lost and 32% gained weight (>0.4 to 5.0 kg/year) during 6.9 years (average). During 8.0 years of follow-up after the second weight assessment, 20 960 incident cancers were ascertained. Independent of baseline BMI, weight gain (per one kg/year increment) was positively associated with cancer of the corpus uteri (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14; 95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.23). Compared to stable weight (±0.4 kg/year), weight gain (>0.4 to 5.0 kg/year) was positively associated with cancers of the gallbladder and bile ducts (HR = 1.41; 1.01-1.96), postmenopausal breast (HR = 1.08; 1.00-1.16) and thyroid (HR = 1.40; 1.04-1.90). Compared to maintaining normal weight, maintaining overweight or obese BMI (World Health Organisation categories) was positively associated with most obesity-related cancers. Compared to maintaining the baseline BMI category, weight gain to a higher BMI category was positively associated with cancers of the postmenopausal breast (HR = 1.19; 1.06-1.33), ovary (HR = 1.40; 1.04-1.91), corpus uteri (HR = 1.42; 1.06-1.91), kidney (HR = 1.80; 1.20-2.68) and pancreas in men (HR = 1.81; 1.11-2.95). Losing weight to a lower BMI category, however, was inversely associated with cancers of the corpus uteri (HR = 0.40; 0.23-0.69) and colon (HR = 0.69; 0.52-0.92). Our findings support avoiding weight gain and encouraging weight loss in middle adulthood., (© 2020 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Union for International Cancer Control.)

Overdiagnosis is a major potential harm of lung cancer screening; knowing its potential magnitude helps to optimize screening eligibility criteria. The German Lung Screening Intervention Trial ("LUSI") is a randomized trial among 4052 long-term smokers (2622 men), 50.3 to 71.9 years of age from the general population around Heidelberg, Germany, comparing five annual rounds of low-dose computed tomography (n = 2029) with a control arm without intervention (n = 2023). After a median follow-up of 9.77 years postrandomization and 5.73 years since last screening, 74 participants were diagnosed with lung cancer in the control arm and 90 in the screening arm: 69 during the active screening period; of which 63 screen-detected and 6 interval cancers. The excess cumulative incidence in the screening arm (N = 16) represented 25.4% (95% confidence interval: -11.3, 64.3] of screen-detected cancer cases (N = 63). Analyzed by histologic subtype, excess incidence in the screening arm appeared largely driven by adenocarcinomas. Statistical modeling yielded an estimated mean preclinical sojourn time (MPST) of 5.38 (4.76, 5.88) years and a screen-test sensitivity of 81.6 (74.4%, 88.8%) for lung cancer overall, all histologic subtypes combined. Based on modeling, we further estimated that about 48% (47.5% [43.2%, 50.7%]) of screen-detected tumors have a lead time ≥4 years, whereas about 33% (32.8% [28.4%, 36.1%]) have a lead time ≥6 years, 23% (22.6% [18.6%, 25.7%]) ≥8 years, 16% (15.6% [12.2%, 18.3%]) ≥10 years and 11% (10.7% [8.0%, 13.0%]) ≥12 years. The high proportions of tumors with relatively long lead times suggest a major risk of overdiagnosis for individuals with comparatively short remaining life expectancies., (© 2020 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Union for International Cancer Control.)

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development entails changes in liver metabolism. Current knowledge on metabolic perturbations in HCC is derived mostly from case-control designs, with sparse information from prospective cohorts. Our objective was to apply comprehensive metabolite profiling to detect metabolites whose serum concentrations are associated with HCC development, using biological samples from within the prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (>520 000 participants), where we identified 129 HCC cases matched 1:1 to controls. We conducted high-resolution untargeted liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based metabolomics on serum samples collected at recruitment prior to cancer diagnosis. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was applied controlling for dietary habits, alcohol consumption, smoking, body size, hepatitis infection and liver dysfunction. Corrections for multiple comparisons were applied. Of 9206 molecular features detected, 220 discriminated HCC cases from controls. Detailed feature annotation revealed 92 metabolites associated with HCC risk, of which 14 were unambiguously identified using pure reference standards. Positive HCC-risk associations were observed for N1-acetylspermidine, isatin, p-hydroxyphenyllactic acid, tyrosine, sphingosine, l,l-cyclo(leucylprolyl), glycochenodeoxycholic acid, glycocholic acid and 7-methylguanine. Inverse risk associations were observed for retinol, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, glycerophosphocholine, γ-carboxyethyl hydroxychroman and creatine. Discernible differences for these metabolites were observed between cases and controls up to 10 years prior to diagnosis. Our observations highlight the diversity of metabolic perturbations involved in HCC development and replicate previous observations (metabolism of bile acids, amino acids and phospholipids) made in Asian and Scandinavian populations. These findings emphasize the role of metabolic pathways associated with steroid metabolism and immunity and specific dietary and environmental exposures in HCC development., (© 2020 UICC.)

Early onset pancreatic cancer (EOPC) is a rare disease with a very high mortality rate. Almost nothing is known on the genetic susceptibility of EOPC, therefore, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify novel genetic variants specific for patients diagnosed with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) at younger ages. In the first phase, conducted on 821 cases with age of onset ≤60 years, of whom 198 with age of onset ≤50, and 3227 controls from PanScan I-II, we observed four SNPs (rs7155613, rs2328991, rs4891017 and rs12610094) showing an association with EOPC risk (P < 1 × 10 -4 ). We replicated these SNPs in the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium and used additional in silico data from PanScan III and PanC4. Among these four variants rs2328991 was significant in an independent set of 855 cases with age of onset ≤60 years, of whom 265 with age of onset ≤50, and 4142 controls from the PANDoRA consortium while in the in silico data, we observed no statistically significant association. However, the resulting meta-analysis supported the association (P = 1.15 × 10 -4 ). In conclusion, we propose a novel variant rs2328991 to be involved in EOPC risk. Even though it was not possible to find a mechanistic link between the variant and the function, the association is supported by a solid statistical significance obtained in the largest study on EOPC genetics present so far in the literature., (© 2020 UICC.)

A substantial proportion of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) arises in the fallopian tube and other epithelia of the upper genital tract; these epithelia may incur damage and neoplastic transformation after sexually transmitted infections (STI) and pelvic inflammatory disease. We investigated the hypothesis that past STI infection, particularly Chlamydia trachomatis, is associated with higher EOC risk in a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort including 791 cases and 1669 matched controls. Serum antibodies against C. trachomatis, Mycoplasma genitalium, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and human papillomavirus (HPV) 16, 18 and 45 were assessed using multiplex fluorescent bead-based serology. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) comparing women with positive vs. negative serology. A total of 40% of the study population was seropositive to at least one STI. Positive serology to C. trachomatis Pgp3 antibodies was not associated with EOC risk overall, but with higher risk of the mucinous histotype (RR = 2.30 [95% CI = 1.22-4.32]). Positive serology for chlamydia heat shock protein 60 (cHSP60-1) was associated with higher risk of EOC overall (1.36 [1.13-1.64]) and with the serous subtype (1.44 [1.12-1.85]). None of the other evaluated STIs were associated with EOC risk overall; however, HSV-2 was associated with higher risk of endometrioid EOC (2.35 [1.24-4.43]). The findings of our study suggest a potential role of C. trachomatis in the carcinogenesis of serous and mucinous EOC, while HSV-2 might promote the development of endometrioid disease., (© 2020 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is an incurable disease accounting for almost one-third of leukemias in the Western world. Aberrant expression of microRNAs (miRNAs) is a well-established characteristic of CLL, and the robust nature of miRNAs makes them eminently suitable liquid biopsy biomarkers. Using a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), the predictive values of five promising human miRNAs (hsa-miR-16-5p, hsa-miR-29a-3p, hsa-miR-150-5p, hsa-miR-155-5p and hsa-miR-223-3p), identified in a pilot study, were examined in serum of 224 CLL cases (diagnosed 3 months to 18 years after enrollment) and 224 matched controls using Taqman based assays. Conditional logistic regressions were applied to adjust for potential confounders. The median time from blood collection to CLL diagnosis was 10 years (p25-p75: 7-13 years). Overall, the upregulation of hsa-miR-150-5p, hsa-miR-155-5p and hsa-miR-29a-3p was associated with subsequent risk of CLL [OR 1∆Ct-unit increase (95%CI) = 1.42 (1.18-1.72), 1.64 (1.31-2.04) and 1.75 (1.31-2.34) for hsa-miR-150-5p, hsa-miR-155-5p and hsa-miR-29a-3p, respectively] and the strongest associations were observed within 10 years of diagnosis. However, the predictive performance of these miRNAs was modest (area under the curve <0.62). hsa-miR-16-5p and hsa-miR-223-3p levels were unrelated to CLL risk. The findings of this first prospective study suggest that hsa-miR-29a, hsa-miR-150-5p and hsa-miR-155-5p were upregulated in early stages of CLL but were modest predictive biomarkers of CLL risk., (© 2020 UICC.)

Endometrial cancer (EC) incidence rates vary ~10-fold worldwide, in part due to variation in EC risk factor profiles. Using an EC risk model previously developed in the European EPIC cohort, we evaluated the prevention potential of modified EC risk factor patterns and whether differences in EC incidence between a European population and low-risk countries can be explained by differences in these patterns. Predicted EC incidence rates were estimated over 10 years of follow-up for the cohort before and after modifying risk factor profiles. Risk factors considered were: body mass index (BMI, kg/m 2 ), use of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) and oral contraceptives (OC) (potentially modifiable); and, parity, ages at first birth, menarche and menopause (environmentally conditioned, but not readily modifiable). Modeled alterations in BMI (to all ≤23 kg/m 2 ) and HT use (to all non-HT users) profiles resulted in a 30% reduction in predicted EC incidence rates; individually, longer duration of OC use (to all ≥10 years) resulted in a 42.5% reduction. Modeled changes in not readily modifiable exposures (i.e., those not contributing to prevention potential) resulted in ≤24.6% reduction in predicted EC incidence. Women in the lowest decile of a risk score based on the evaluated exposures had risk similar to a low risk countries; however, this was driven by relatively long use of OCs (median = 23 years). Our findings support avoidance of overweight BMI and of HT use as prevention strategies for EC in a European population; OC use must be considered in the context of benefits and risks., (© 2020 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Early-adulthood body size is strongly inversely associated with risk of premenopausal breast cancer. It is unclear whether subsequent changes in weight affect risk. We pooled individual-level data from 17 prospective studies to investigate the association of weight change with premenopausal breast cancer risk, considering strata of initial weight, timing of weight change, other breast cancer risk factors and breast cancer subtype. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained using Cox regression. Among 628,463 women, 10,886 were diagnosed with breast cancer before menopause. Models adjusted for initial weight at ages 18-24 years and other breast cancer risk factors showed that weight gain from ages 18-24 to 35-44 or to 45-54 years was inversely associated with breast cancer overall (e.g., HR per 5 kg to ages 45-54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95-0.98) and with oestrogen-receptor(ER)-positive breast cancer (HR per 5 kg to ages 45-54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94-0.98). Weight gain from ages 25-34 was inversely associated with ER-positive breast cancer only and weight gain from ages 35-44 was not associated with risk. None of these weight gains were associated with ER-negative breast cancer. Weight loss was not consistently associated with overall or ER-specific risk after adjusting for initial weight. Weight increase from early-adulthood to ages 45-54 years is associated with a reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk independently of early-adulthood weight. Biological explanations are needed to account for these two separate factors., (© 2020 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Emerging evidence suggests that a metabolic profile associated with obesity may be a more relevant risk factor for some cancers than adiposity per se. Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is an indicator of overall body metabolism and may be a proxy for the impact of a specific metabolic profile on cancer risk. Therefore, we investigated the association of predicted BMR with incidence of 13 obesity-related cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). BMR at baseline was calculated using the WHO/FAO/UNU equations and the relationships between BMR and cancer risk were investigated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. A total of 141,295 men and 317,613 women, with a mean follow-up of 14 years were included in the analysis. Overall, higher BMR was associated with a greater risk for most cancers that have been linked with obesity. However, among normal weight participants, higher BMR was associated with elevated risks of esophageal adenocarcinoma (hazard ratio per 1-standard deviation change in BMR [HR 1-SD ]: 2.46; 95% CI 1.20; 5.03) and distal colon cancer (HR 1-SD : 1.33; 95% CI 1.001; 1.77) among men and with proximal colon (HR 1-SD : 1.16; 95% CI 1.01; 1.35), pancreatic (HR 1-SD : 1.37; 95% CI 1.13; 1.66), thyroid (HR 1-SD : 1.65; 95% CI 1.33; 2.05), postmenopausal breast (HR 1-SD : 1.17; 95% CI 1.11; 1.22) and endometrial (HR 1-SD : 1.20; 95% CI 1.03; 1.40) cancers in women. These results indicate that higher BMR may be an indicator of a metabolic phenotype associated with risk of certain cancer types, and may be a useful predictor of cancer risk independent of body fatness., (© 2019 International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO); licensed by UICC.)

Evidence suggests an influence of sex hormones on cutaneous melanoma risk, but epidemiologic findings are conflicting. We examined the associations between use of oral contraceptives (OCs) and menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and melanoma risk in women participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). EPIC is a prospective cohort study initiated in 1992 in 10 European countries. Information on exogenous hormone use at baseline was derived from country-specific self-administered questionnaires. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Over 1992-2015, 1,696 melanoma cases were identified among 334,483 women, whereof 770 cases among 134,758 postmenopausal women. There was a positive, borderline-significant association between OC use and melanoma risk (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.00-1.26), with no detected heterogeneity across countries (p homogeneity = 0.42). This risk increased linearly with duration of use (p trend = 0.01). Among postmenopausal women, ever use of MHT was associated with a nonsignificant increase in melanoma risk overall (HR = 1.14, 95% CI = 0.97-1.43), which was heterogeneous across countries (p homogeneity = 0.05). Our findings do not support a strong and direct association between exogenous hormone use and melanoma risk. In order to better understand these relations, further research should be performed using prospectively collected data including detailed information on types of hormone, and on sun exposure, which may act as an important confounder or effect modifier on these relations., (© 2019 UICC.)

In 2011, the U.S. National Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NLST) reported a 20% reduction of lung cancer mortality after regular screening by low-dose computed tomography (LDCT), as compared to X-ray screening. The introduction of lung cancer screening programs in Europe awaits confirmation of these first findings from European trials that started in parallel with the NLST. The German Lung cancer Screening Intervention (LUSI) is a randomized trial among 4,052 long-term smokers, 50-69 years of age, recruited from the general population, comparing five annual rounds of LDCT screening (screening arm; n = 2,029 participants) with a control arm (n = 2,023) followed by annual postal questionnaire inquiries. Data on lung cancer incidence and mortality and vital status were collected from hospitals or office-based physicians, cancer registries, population registers and health offices. Over an average observation time of 8.8 years after randomization, the hazard ratio for lung cancer mortality was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.46-1.19; p = 0.21) among men and women combined. Modeling by sex, however showed a statistically significant reduction in lung cancer mortality among women (HR = 0.31 [95% CI: 0.10-0.96], p = 0.04), but not among men (HR = 0.94 [95% CI: 0.54-1.61], p = 0.81) screened by LDCT (p heterogeneity = 0.09). Findings from LUSI are in line with those from other trials, including NLST, that suggest a stronger reduction of lung cancer mortality after LDCT screening among women as compared to men. This heterogeneity could be the result of different relative counts of lung tumor subtypes occurring in men and women., (© 2019 UICC.)

Obesity has been associated with upper gastrointestinal cancers; however, there are limited prospective data on associations by subtype/subsite. Obesity can impact hormonal factors, which have been hypothesized to play a role in these cancers. We investigated anthropometric and reproductive factors in relation to esophageal and gastric cancer by subtype and subsite for 476,160 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox models. During a mean follow-up of 14 years, 220 esophageal adenocarcinomas (EA), 195 esophageal squamous cell carcinomas, 243 gastric cardia (GC) and 373 gastric noncardia (GNC) cancers were diagnosed. Body mass index (BMI) was associated with EA in men (BMI ≥30 vs. 18.5-25 kg/m 2 : HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.25-3.03) and women (HR = 2.66, 95% CI: 1.15-6.19); however, adjustment for waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) attenuated these associations. After mutual adjustment for BMI and HC, respectively, WHR and waist circumference (WC) were associated with EA in men (HR = 3.47, 95% CI: 1.99-6.06 for WHR >0.96 vs. <0.91; HR = 2.67, 95% CI: 1.52-4.72 for WC >98 vs. <90 cm) and women (HR = 4.40, 95% CI: 1.35-14.33 for WHR >0.82 vs. <0.76; HR = 5.67, 95% CI: 1.76-18.26 for WC >84 vs. <74 cm). WHR was also positively associated with GC in women, and WC was positively associated with GC in men. Inverse associations were observed between parity and EA (HR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.14-0.99; >2 vs. 0) and age at first pregnancy and GNC (HR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.32-0.91; >26 vs. <22 years); whereas bilateral ovariectomy was positively associated with GNC (HR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.04-3.36). These findings support a role for hormonal pathways in upper gastrointestinal cancers., (© 2019 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Alcohol consumption is associated with higher risk of breast cancer (BC); however, the biological mechanisms underlying this association are not fully elucidated, particularly the extent to which this relationship is mediated by sex hormone levels. Circulating concentrations of estradiol, testosterone, their free fractions and sex-hormone binding globulin (SHBG), were examined in 430 incident BC cases and 645 matched controls among alcohol-consuming postmenopausal women nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Mediation analysis was applied to assess whether individual hormone levels mediated the relationship between alcohol intake and BC risk. An alcohol-related hormonal signature, obtained by partial least square (PLS) regression, was evaluated as a potential mediator. Total (TE), natural direct and natural indirect effects (NIE) were estimated. Alcohol intake was positively associated with overall BC risk and specifically with estrogen receptor-positive tumors with respectively TE = 1.17(95%CI: 1.01,1.35) and 1.36(1.08,1.70) for a 1-standard deviation (1-SD) increase of intake. There was no evidence of mediation by sex steroids or SHBG separately except for a weak indirect effect through free estradiol where NIE = 1.03(1.00,1.06). However, an alcohol-related hormonal signature negatively associated with SHBG and positively with estradiol and testosterone was associated with BC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.25 [1.07,1.47]) for a 1-SD higher PLS score, and had a statistically significant NIE accounting for a mediated proportion of 24%. There was limited evidence of mediation of the alcohol-BC association by individual sex hormones. However, a hormonal signature, reflecting lower levels of SHBG and higher levels of sex steroids, mediated a substantial proportion of the association., (© 2019 UICC.)

Metabolomics may reveal novel insights into the etiology of prostate cancer, for which few risk factors are established. We investigated the association between patterns in baseline plasma metabolite profile and subsequent prostate cancer risk, using data from 3,057 matched case-control sets from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We measured 119 metabolite concentrations in plasma samples, collected on average 9.4 years before diagnosis, by mass spectrometry (AbsoluteIDQ p180 Kit, Biocrates Life Sciences AG). Metabolite patterns were identified using treelet transform, a statistical method for identification of groups of correlated metabolites. Associations of metabolite patterns with prostate cancer risk (OR 1SD ) were estimated by conditional logistic regression. Supplementary analyses were conducted for metabolite patterns derived using principal component analysis and for individual metabolites. Men with metabolite profiles characterized by higher concentrations of either phosphatidylcholines or hydroxysphingomyelins (OR 1SD  = 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.66-0.89), acylcarnitines C18:1 and C18:2, glutamate, ornithine and taurine (OR 1SD  = 0.72, 0.57-0.90), or lysophosphatidylcholines (OR 1SD  = 0.81, 0.69-0.95) had lower risk of advanced stage prostate cancer at diagnosis, with no evidence of heterogeneity by follow-up time. Similar associations were observed for the two former patterns with aggressive disease risk (the more aggressive subset of advanced stage), while the latter pattern was inversely related to risk of prostate cancer death (OR 1SD  = 0.77, 0.61-0.96). No associations were observed for prostate cancer overall or less aggressive tumor subtypes. In conclusion, metabolite patterns may be related to lower risk of more aggressive prostate tumors and prostate cancer death, and might be relevant to etiology of advanced stage prostate cancer., (© 2019 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and insulin-like growth factor binding proteins (IGFBPs) have been implicated in the aetiology of several cancers. To better understand whether anthropometric, behavioural and sociodemographic factors may play a role in cancer risk via IGF signalling, we examined the cross-sectional associations of these exposures with circulating concentrations of IGFs (IGF-I and IGF-II) and IGFBPs (IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3). The Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group dataset includes individual participant data from 16,024 male controls (i.e. without prostate cancer) aged 22-89 years from 22 prospective studies. Geometric means of protein concentrations were estimated using analysis of variance, adjusted for relevant covariates. Older age was associated with higher concentrations of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2 and lower concentrations of IGF-I, IGF-II and IGFBP-3. Higher body mass index was associated with lower concentrations of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2. Taller height was associated with higher concentrations of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 and lower concentrations of IGFBP-1. Smokers had higher concentrations of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2 and lower concentrations of IGFBP-3 than nonsmokers. Higher alcohol consumption was associated with higher concentrations of IGF-II and lower concentrations of IGF-I and IGFBP-2. African Americans had lower concentrations of IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 and Hispanics had lower IGF-I, IGF-II and IGFBP-3 than non-Hispanic whites. These findings indicate that a range of anthropometric, behavioural and sociodemographic factors are associated with circulating concentrations of IGFs and IGFBPs in men, which will lead to a greater understanding of the mechanisms through which these factors influence cancer risk., (© 2019 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Published associations between dietary folate and bladder cancer risk are inconsistent. Biomarkers may provide more accurate measures of nutrient status. This nested case-control analysis within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) investigated associations between pre-diagnostic serum folate, homocysteine, vitamins B6 and B12 and the risk of urothelial cell carcinomas of the bladder (UCC). A total of 824 patients with newly diagnosed UCC were matched with 824 cohort members. Serum folate, homocysteine, and vitamins B6 and B12 were measured. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for total, aggressive, and non-aggressive UCC were estimated using conditional logistic regression with adjustment for smoking status, smoking duration and intensity, and other potential confounders. Additionally, statistical interaction with smoking status was assessed. A halving in serum folate concentrations was moderately associated with risk of UCC (OR: 1.18; 95% CI: 0.98-1.43), in particular aggressive UCC (OR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.02-1.75; p-heterogeneity = 0.19). Compared to never smokers in the highest quartile of folate concentrations, this association seemed only apparent among current smokers in the lowest quartile of folate concentrations (OR: 6.26; 95% CI: 3.62-10.81, p-interaction = 0.07). Dietary folate was not associated with aggressive UCC (OR: 1.26; 95% CI: 0.81-1.95; p-heterogeneity = 0.14). No association was observed between serum homocysteine, vitamins B6 and B12 and risk of UCC. This study suggests that lower serum folate concentrations are associated with increased UCC risk, in particular aggressive UCC. Residual confounding by smoking cannot be ruled out and these findings require confirmation in future studies with multiple measurements., (© 2019 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Epidemiologic studies show an increased risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in patients with autoimmune disease (AD), due to a combination of shared environmental factors and/or genetic factors, or a causative cascade: chronic inflammation/antigen-stimulation in one disease leads to another. Here we assess shared genetic risk in genome-wide-association-studies (GWAS). Secondary analysis of GWAS of NHL subtypes (chronic lymphocytic leukemia, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, follicular lymphoma, and marginal zone lymphoma) and ADs (rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and multiple sclerosis). Shared genetic risk was assessed by (a) description of regional genetic of overlap, (b) polygenic risk score (PRS), (c)"diseasome", (d)meta-analysis. Descriptive analysis revealed few shared genetic factors between each AD and each NHL subtype. The PRS of ADs were not increased in NHL patients (nor vice versa). In the diseasome, NHLs shared more genetic etiology with ADs than solid cancers (p = .0041). A meta-analysis (combing AD with NHL) implicated genes of apoptosis and telomere length. This GWAS-based analysis four NHL subtypes and three ADs revealed few weakly-associated shared loci, explaining little total risk. This suggests common genetic variation, as assessed by GWAS in these sample sizes, may not be the primary explanation for the link between these ADs and NHLs., (© 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Gallstones, a common gastrointestinal condition, can lead to several digestive complications and can result in inflammation. Risk factors for gallstones include obesity, diabetes, smoking and physical inactivity, all of which are known risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC), as is inflammation. However, it is unclear whether gallstones are a risk factor for CRC. We examined the association between history of gallstones and CRC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, a prospective cohort of over half a million participants from ten European countries. History of gallstones was assessed at baseline using a self-reported questionnaire. The analytic cohort included 334,986 participants; a history of gallstones was reported by 3,917 men and 19,836 women, and incident CRC was diagnosed among 1,832 men and 2,178 women (mean follow-up: 13.6 years). Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between gallstones and CRC were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models, stratified by sex, study centre and age at recruitment. The models were adjusted for body mass index, diabetes, alcohol intake and physical activity. A positive, marginally significant association was detected between gallstones and CRC among women in multivariable analyses (HR = 1.14, 95%CI 0.99-1.31, p = 0.077). The relationship between gallstones and CRC among men was inverse but not significant (HR = 0.81, 95%CI 0.63-1.04, p = 0.10). Additional adjustment for details of reproductive history or waist circumference yielded minimal changes to the observed associations. Further research is required to confirm the nature of the association between gallstones and CRC by sex., (© 2018 UICC.)

Rare truncating BRCA2 K3326X (rs11571833) and pathogenic CHEK2 I157T (rs17879961) variants have previously been implicated in familial pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), but not in sporadic cases. The effect of both mutations in important DNA repair genes on sporadic PDAC risk may shed light on the genetic architecture of this disease. Both mutations were genotyped in germline DNA from 2,935 sporadic PDAC cases and 5,626 control subjects within the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium. Risk estimates were evaluated using multivariate unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for possible confounders such as sex, age and country of origin. Statistical analyses were two-sided with p values <0.05 considered significant. K3326X and I157T were associated with increased risk of developing sporadic PDAC (odds ratio (OR dom ) = 1.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.26-2.52, p = 1.19 × 10 -3 and OR dom = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.15-2.63, p = 8.57 × 10 -3 , respectively). Neither mutation was significantly associated with risk of developing early-onset PDAC. This retrospective study demonstrates novel risk estimates of K3326X and I157T in sporadic PDAC which suggest that upon validation and in combination with other established genetic and non-genetic risk factors, these mutations may be used to improve pancreatic cancer risk assessment in European populations. Identification of carriers of these risk alleles as high-risk groups may also facilitate screening or prevention strategies for such individuals, regardless of family history., (© 2019 UICC.)

There is a growing evidence of the protective role of the Mediterranean diet (MD) on cancer. However, no prospective study has yet investigated its influence on lymphoma. We evaluated the association between adherence to the MD and risk of lymphoma and its subtypes in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The analysis included 476,160 participants, recruited from 10 European countries between 1991 and 2001. Adherence to the MD was estimated through the adapted relative MD (arMED) score excluding alcohol. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used while adjusting for potential confounders. During an average follow-up of 13.9 years, 3,136 lymphomas (135 Hodgkin lymphoma [HL], 2,606 non-HL and 395 lymphoma not otherwise specified) were identified. Overall, a 1-unit increase in the arMED score was associated with a 2% lower risk of lymphoma (95% CI: 0.97; 1.00, p-trend = 0.03) while a statistically nonsignificant inverse association between a high versus low arMED score and risk of lymphoma was observed (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.91 [95% CI 0.80; 1.03], p-trend = 0.12). Analyses by lymphoma subtype did not reveal any statistically significant associations. Albeit with small numbers of cases (N = 135), a suggestive inverse association was found for HL (HR 1-unit increase = 0.93 [95% CI: 0.86; 1.01], p-trend = 0.07). However, the study may have lacked statistical power to detect small effect sizes for lymphoma subtype. Our findings suggest that an increasing arMED score was inversely related to the risk of overall lymphoma in EPIC but not by subtypes. Further large prospective studies are warranted to confirm these findings., (© 2018 UICC.)

Ovarian cancer risk factors differ by histotype; however, within subtype, there is substantial variability in outcomes. We hypothesized that risk factor profiles may influence tumor aggressiveness, defined by time between diagnosis and death, independent of histology. Among 1.3 million women from 21 prospective cohorts, 4,584 invasive epithelial ovarian cancers were identified and classified as highly aggressive (death in <1 year, n = 864), very aggressive (death in 1 to < 3 years, n = 1,390), moderately aggressive (death in 3 to < 5 years, n = 639), and less aggressive (lived 5+ years, n = 1,691). Using competing risks Cox proportional hazards regression, we assessed heterogeneity of associations by tumor aggressiveness for all cases and among serous and endometrioid/clear cell tumors. Associations between parity (p het = 0.01), family history of ovarian cancer (p het = 0.02), body mass index (BMI; p het ≤ 0.04) and smoking (p het < 0.01) and ovarian cancer risk differed by aggressiveness. A first/single pregnancy, relative to nulliparity, was inversely associated with highly aggressive disease (HR: 0.72; 95% CI [0.58-0.88]), no association was observed for subsequent pregnancies (per pregnancy, 0.97 [0.92-1.02]). In contrast, first and subsequent pregnancies were similarly associated with less aggressive disease (0.87 for both). Family history of ovarian cancer was only associated with risk of less aggressive disease (1.94 [1.47-2.55]). High BMI (≥35 vs. 20 to < 25 kg/m 2 , 1.93 [1.46-2.56] and current smoking (vs. never, 1.30 [1.07-1.57]) were associated with increased risk of highly aggressive disease. Results were similar within histotypes. Ovarian cancer risk factors may be directly associated with subtypes defined by tumor aggressiveness, rather than through differential effects on histology. Studies to assess biological pathways are warranted., (© 2018 UICC.)

Recently, we identified unique processing patterns of apolipoprotein A2 (ApoA2) in patients with pancreatic cancer. Our study provides a first prospective evaluation of an ApoA2 isoform ("ApoA2-ATQ/AT"), alone and in combination with carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), as an early detection biomarker for pancreatic cancer. We performed ELISA measurements of CA19-9 and ApoA2-ATQ/AT in 156 patients with pancreatic cancer and 217 matched controls within the European EPIC cohort, using plasma samples collected up to 60 months prior to diagnosis. The detection discrimination statistics were calculated for risk scores by strata of lag-time. For CA19-9, in univariate marker analyses, C-statistics to distinguish future pancreatic cancer patients from cancer-free individuals were 0.80 for plasma taken ≤6 months before diagnosis, and 0.71 for >6-18 months; for ApoA2-ATQ/AT, C-statistics were 0.62, and 0.65, respectively. Joint models based on ApoA2-ATQ/AT plus CA19-9 significantly improved discrimination within >6-18 months (C = 0.74 vs. 0.71 for CA19-9 alone, p = 0.022) and ≤ 18 months (C = 0.75 vs. 0.74, p = 0.022). At 98% specificity, and for lag times of ≤6, >6-18 or ≤ 18 months, sensitivities were 57%, 36% and 43% for CA19-9 combined with ApoA2-ATQ/AT, respectively, vs. 50%, 29% and 36% for CA19-9 alone. Compared to CA19-9 alone, the combination of CA19-9 and ApoA2-ATQ/AT may improve detection of pancreatic cancer up to 18 months prior to diagnosis under usual care, and may provide a useful first measure for pancreatic cancer detection prior to imaging., (© 2018 UICC.)

Telomere deregulation is a hallmark of cancer. Telomere length measured in lymphocytes (LTL) has been shown to be a risk marker for several cancers. For pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) consensus is lacking whether risk is associated with long or short telomeres. Mendelian randomization approaches have shown that a score built from SNPs associated with LTL could be used as a robust risk marker. We explored this approach in a large scale study within the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium. We analyzed 10 SNPs (ZNF676-rs409627, TERT-rs2736100, CTC1-rs3027234, DHX35-rs6028466, PXK-rs6772228, NAF1-rs7675998, ZNF208-rs8105767, OBFC1-rs9420907, ACYP2-rs11125529 and TERC-rs10936599) alone and combined in a LTL genetic score ("teloscore", which explains 2.2% of the telomere variability) in relation to PDAC risk in 2,374 cases and 4,326 controls. We identified several associations with PDAC risk, among which the strongest were with the TERT-rs2736100 SNP (OR = 1.54; 95%CI 1.35-1.76; p = 1.54 × 10 -10 ) and a novel one with the NAF1-rs7675998 SNP (OR = 0.80; 95%CI 0.73-0.88; p = 1.87 × 10 -6 , p trend = 3.27 × 10 -7 ). The association of short LTL, measured by the teloscore, with PDAC risk reached genome-wide significance (p = 2.98 × 10 -9 for highest vs. lowest quintile; p = 1.82 × 10 -10 as a continuous variable). In conclusion, we present a novel genome-wide candidate SNP for PDAC risk (TERT-rs2736100), a completely new signal (NAF1-rs7675998) approaching genome-wide significance and we report a strong association between the teloscore and risk of pancreatic cancer, suggesting that telomeres are a potential risk factor for pancreatic cancer., (© 2018 UICC.)

Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) regulates cell proliferation and apoptosis, and is thought to play a role in tumour development. Previous prospective studies have shown that higher circulating concentrations of IGF-I are associated with a higher risk of cancers at specific sites, including breast and prostate. No prospective study has examined the association between circulating IGF-I concentrations and melanoma risk. A nested case-control study of 1,221 melanoma cases and 1,221 controls was performed in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, a prospective cohort of 520,000 participants recruited from 10 European countries. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for incident melanoma in relation to circulating IGF-I concentrations, measured by immunoassay. Analyses were conditioned on the matching factors and further adjusted for age at blood collection, education, height, BMI, smoking status, alcohol intake, marital status, physical activity and in women only, use of menopausal hormone therapy. There was no significant association between circulating IGF-I concentration and melanoma risk (OR for highest vs lowest fifth = 0.93 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71 to 1.22]). There was no significant heterogeneity in the association between IGF-I concentrations and melanoma risk when subdivided by gender, age at blood collection, BMI, height, age at diagnosis, time between blood collection and diagnosis, or by anatomical site or histological subtype of the tumour (Pheterogeneity≥0.078). We found no evidence for an association between circulating concentrations of IGF-I measured in adulthood and the risk of melanoma., (© 2018 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

The epidemiological evidence regarding the association of coffee and tea consumption with prostate cancer risk is inconclusive, and few cohort studies have assessed these associations by disease stage and grade. We examined the associations of coffee (total, caffeinated and decaffeinated) and tea intake with prostate cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Among 142,196 men, 7,036 incident prostate cancer cases were diagnosed over 14 years of follow-up. Data on coffee and tea consumption were collected through validated country-specific food questionnaires at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Models were stratified by center and age, and adjusted for anthropometric, lifestyle and dietary factors. Median coffee and tea intake were 375 and 106 mL/day, respectively, but large variations existed by country. Comparing the highest (median of 855 mL/day) versus lowest (median of 103 mL/day) consumers of coffee and tea (450 vs. 12 mL/day) the HRs were 1.02 (95% CI, 0.94-1.09) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.90-1.07) for risk of total prostate cancer and 0.97 (95% CI, 0.79-1.21) and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.70-1.13) for risk of fatal disease, respectively. No evidence of association was seen for consumption of total, caffeinated or decaffeinated coffee or tea and risk of total prostate cancer or cancer by stage, grade or fatality in this large cohort. Further investigations are needed to clarify whether an association exists by different preparations or by concentrations and constituents of these beverages., (© 2018 UICC.)

Higher lignan exposure has been associated with lower all-cause mortality (ACM) and breast cancer-specific mortality (BCSM) for postmenopausal breast cancer patients. However, the biological mechanisms underpinning these associations are still unclear. We investigated for the first time whether and to what extent the association between enterolactone (ENL), the major lignan metabolite, and postmenopausal breast cancer prognosis is mediated by inflammatory biomarkers. Circulating concentrations of ENL and inflammatory markers were measured in a population-based prospective cohort of 1,743 breast cancer patients recruited between 2002 and 2005 and followed-up until 2009. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs were estimated using multivariable Cox regression. Mediation analysis was performed to estimate the percentage association between ENL (log2) and ACM, BCSM and distant disease-free survival (DDFS), which is mediated by C-reactive protein (CRP) (log2), as the strongest potential mediator, and also interleukin (IL)-10. Median serum/plasma ENL and CRP concentrations for all patients, including 180 deceased patients, were 23.2 and 17.5 nmol/L, and 3.2 and 6.5 mg/l, respectively. ENL concentrations were significantly inversely associated with ACM, BCSM and DDFS (per doubling of ENL concentrations: HRs 0.93 [0.87, 0.99], 0.91 [0.84, 0.99] and 0.92 [0.87, 0.99]), after adjusting for prognostic factors and BMI. Estimated 18, 14 and 12% of the effects of ENL on ACM, BCSM and DDFS, respectively, were mediated through CRP. No mediational effect of IL-10 was found. We provide first evidence that the proinflammatory marker CRP may partially mediate the association of ENL with postmenopausal breast cancer survival, which supports hormone-independent mechanisms., (© 2018 UICC.)

While enhanced platelet activation may drive cancer progression and metastases, less is known about its role in early cancer development. Thus, we evaluated whether pre-diagnostic biomarkers of platelet activation and coagulation are related to the risks of common cancers in the prospective EPIC-Heidelberg Study using a case-cohort design. Levels of fibrinogen, soluble glycoprotein (sGP) IIb/IIIa, soluble P-selectin (sP-selectin), soluble thrombomodulin (sTM), and thrombopoietin (TPO) were measured in baseline plasma samples of a random subcohort (n = 2,480) and incident cases of breast (n = 605), prostate (n = 543), and colorectal cancer (n = 249). Multivariable Cox regression models revealed no statistically significant associations between biomarker concentrations and any of the cancer endpoints. Subgroup analyses showed a significant inverse relationship between TPO and colorectal cancer among men, with a hazard ratio (HR, highest vs. lowest quartile) of 0.60 (95% confidence interval: 0.37,0.95), whereas no significant association was observed among women. With regard to fibrinogen levels and breast cancer risk, there was a significant positive association among nulliparous women (HR: 2.53 [95% CI: 1.21, 5.30]), but not among parous women. Overall, our data suggest that enhanced platelet activation and a pro-coagulative state may not be related to increased risks of common cancers, although studies on other potential biomarkers of platelet activation and further cancer types are needed. Findings from our subgroup analyses require further investigation, as potential underlying mechanisms are not known., (© 2018 UICC.)

Previous in vitro and case-control studies have found an association between the insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-axis and bladder cancer risk. Circulating concentrations of IGF-I have also been found to be associated with an increased risk of several cancer types; however, the relationship between pre-diagnostic circulating IGF-I concentrations and bladder cancer has never been studied prospectively. We investigated the association of pre-diagnostic plasma concentrations of IGF-I with risk of overall bladder cancer and urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC) in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. A total of 843 men and women diagnosed with bladder cancer between 1992 and 2005 were matched with 843 controls by recruitment centre, sex, age at recruitment, date of blood collection, duration of follow-up, time of day and fasting status at blood collection using an incidence density sampling protocol. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using conditional logistic regression with adjustment for smoking status. No association was found between pre-diagnostic circulating IGF-I concentration and overall bladder cancer risk (adjusted OR for highest versus lowest fourth: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.66-1.24, p trend = 0.40) or UCC (n of cases = 776; 0.91, 0.65-1.26, p trend = 0.40). There was no significant evidence of heterogeneity in the association of IGF-I with bladder cancer risk by tumour aggressiveness, sex, smoking status, or by time between blood collection and diagnosis (p heterogeneity > 0.05 for all). This first prospective study indicates no evidence of an association between plasma IGF-I concentrations and bladder cancer risk., (© 2018 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

There are both limited and conflicting data on the role of dietary fat and specific fatty acids in the development of pancreatic cancer. In this study, we investigated the association between plasma phospholipid fatty acids and pancreatic cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The fatty acid composition was measured by gas chromatography in plasma samples collected at recruitment from375 incident pancreatic cancer cases and375 matched controls. Associations of specific fatty acids with pancreatic cancer risk were evaluated using multivariable conditional logistic regression models with adjustment for established pancreatic cancer risk factors. Statistically significant inverse associations were found between pancreatic cancer incidence and levels of heptadecanoic acid (OR T3-T1 [odds ratio for highest versus lowest tertile] =0.63; 95%CI[confidence interval] = 0.41-0.98; p trend = 0.036), n-3 polyunsaturated α-linolenic acid (OR T3-T1 = 0.60; 95%CI = 0.39-0.92; p trend = 0.02) and docosapentaenoic acid (OR T3-T1 = 0.52; 95%CI = 0.32-0.85; p trend = 0.008). Industrial trans-fatty acids were positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk among men (OR T3-T1 = 3.00; 95%CI = 1.13-7.99; p trend = 0.029), while conjugated linoleic acids were inversely related to pancreatic cancer among women only (OR T3-T1 = 0.37; 95%CI = 0.17-0.81; p trend = 0.008). Among current smokers, the long-chain n-6/n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids ratio was positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk (OR T3-T1 = 3.40; 95%CI = 1.39-8.34; p trend = 0.007). Results were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Our findings suggest that higher circulating levels of saturated fatty acids with an odd number of carbon atoms and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids may be related to lower risk of pancreatic cancer. The influence of some fatty acids on the development of pancreatic cancer may be sex-specific and modulated by smoking., (© 2018 UICC.)