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Objectives: We sought (i) to validate a new prediction rule of mortality (Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva (PNED) score) on an independent population with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and (ii) to compare the accuracy of the Italian PNED score vs. the Rockall score in predicting the risk of death., Methods: We conducted prospective validation of analysis of consecutive patients with UGIB at 21 hospitals from 2007 to 2008. Outcome measure was 30-day mortality. All the variables used to calculate the Rockall score as well as those identified in the Italian predictive model were considered. Calibration of the model was tested using the chi2 goodness-of-fit and performance characteristics with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the two predictive models., Results: Over a 16-month period, data on 1,360 patients were entered in a national database and analyzed. Peptic ulcer bleeding was recorded in 60.7% of cases. One or more comorbidities were present in 66% of patients. Endoscopic treatment was delivered in all high-risk patients followed by high-dose intravenous proton pump inhibitor in 95% of them. Sixty-six patients died (mortality 4.85%; 3.54-5.75). The PNED score showed a high discriminant capability and was significantly superior to the Rockall score in predicting the risk of death (AUC 0.81 (0.72-0.90) vs. 0.66 (0.60-0.72), P<0.000). Positive likelihood ratio for mortality in patients with a PNED risk score >8 was 16.05., Conclusions: The Italian 10-point score for the prediction of death was successfully validated in this independent population of patients with non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding. The PNED score is accurate and superior to the Rockall score. Further external validation at the international level is needed.

Objectives: From an Italian Registry of patients with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH), we assessed the clinical outcomes and explored the roles of clinical, endoscopic, and therapeutic factors on 30-day mortality in a real life setting., Methods: Prospective analysis of consecutive patients endoscoped for UGIH at 23 community and tertiary care institutions from 2003 to 2004. Covariates and outcomes were defined a priori and 30-day follow-up obtained. Logistic regression analysis identified predictors of mortality., Results: One thousand and twenty patients were included. A total of 46 patients died for an overall 4.5% mortality rate. In all, 85% of deaths were associated with one or more major comorbidity. Sixteen of 46 patients (35%) died within the first 24 h of the onset of bleeding. Of these, eight had been categorized as ASA class 1 or 2 and none of them was operated upon, despite a failure of endoscopic intention to treatment in four. Regression analysis showed advanced age, presence of severe comorbidity, low hemoglobin levels at presentation, and worsening health status as the only independent predictors of 30-day mortality (P < 0.001). The acute use of a PPI exerted a protective effect (OR 0.23, 95% CI 0.09-0.73). Recurrent bleeding was low (3.2%). Rebleeders accounted for only 11% of the total patients deceased (OR 3.27, 95% CI 1.5-11.2)., Conclusions: These results indicate that 30-day mortality for nonvariceal bleeding is low. Deaths occurred predominantly in elderly patients with severe comorbidities or those with failure of endoscopic intention to treatment.

Objectives: To evaluate the referral patterns and indications for esophageal pH monitoring in an open-access system and to determine whether these indications conform to practice guidelines of the American Gastroenterological Association (AGA)., Methods: A total of 851 consecutive patients referred for ambulatory pH monitoring to nine open-access gastrointestinal units over a 12-month period received a structured interview. The indication for the examination was decided by the physician performing the procedure, on the basis of the patient's clinical history and main complaint., Results: Three hundred and twenty-three (38%) examinations were for indications in accordance with the guidelines. The proportion of appropriate requests in each center ranged from 34% to 47%. This figure was not significantly different in larger gastrointestinal units (more than 150 examinations per year) and smaller ones (35% and 40%; p= 0.14). The proportion of appropriate requests was 45% for gastroenterologists, 38% for surgeons, 32% for other specialists, and 24% for primary care physicians (PCPs) (p < 0.001). The percentage of appropriateness was significantly different between gastrointestinal specialists and PCPs (p < 0.001 vs gastroenterologists, p= 0.015 vs GI surgeons), and between gastroenterologists and other specialists (p= 0.006). The underuse of an empirical trial of acid-suppression therapy in patients with suspected reflux disease and the overuse of this test to confirm a diagnosis in patients with erosive esophagitis and in endoscopy-negative cases with typical symptoms responding completely to antisecretory therapy accounted for most of the referrals, which was not in accordance with the guidelines., Conclusions: In an open-access system, a high proportion of esophageal pH studies are done for indications not consistent with published guidelines, particularly among the examinations not requested by gastrointestinal specialists. Further education is still needed on the appropriate use of esophageal pH monitoring and management of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD).