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This paper examines the relationship between access to markets and land cultivation following Berg et al. (2018) using panel methods. Then, author contextualize these results within the broader recent development challenges of the Lake Chad region. The results provide evidence that an increase in market access is associated with an increase in cultivated land and is positively associated with an increase in local agricultural GDP. Even so, conflict from the rise of Boko Haram in the past decade can attenuate gains whereby the proximity to conflict events in the previous year is associated with less cropland across the entire region and less night time lights from over a hundred local markets nearby Lake Chad. This paper makes two contributions. First, the importance of market access as part of economic development is well known, yet advancements in measurement of agricultural activity derived from satellite data and recent data are necessary to gain current insight given developments in the region. Second, this paper contextualizes the findings of market access with local conditions given the numerous conflict events in the past decade from Boko Haram. The rest of this paper is structured as follows. Section two describes the data sources while section three presents the empirical framework, section four presents the results, and section five concludes.

This paper uses a combination of survey questions to instructors and data collected from course syllabi and examinations to examine how the subject of development economics is taught at the undergraduate and masters levels in developing countries, and benchmark this against undergraduate classes in the United States. The study finds that there is considerable heterogeneity in what is considered development economics: there is a narrow core of only a small set of topics such as growth theory, poverty and inequality, human capital, and institutions taught in at least half the classes, with substantial variation in other topics covered. In developing countries, development economics is taught largely as a theoretical subject coupled with case studies, with few courses emphasizing data or empirical methods and findings. This approach contrasts with the approach taken in leading U.S. economics departments and with the evolution of development economics research. The analysis finds that country income per capita, the role of the state in the economy, the education level in the country, and the involvement of the instructor in research are associated with how close a course is to the frontier. The results suggest there are important gaps in how development economics is taught.

The objective of this study is to analyse the impact of various types of government spending on growth and poverty reduction, using provincial level data over the last decade. Government spending reduces poverty through many channels such as agricultural growth and improved nonfarm employment. We will try to capture all these different effects in the analysis if the data allow. This paper opens with a review of Vietnam’s economic reforms and growth over the past decade. We then sketch Vietnam’s poverty profile, highlighting changes over time, regional distribution, and differences among population groups. In the next two chapters, we will review the trend and composition of government spending, agricultural R&D and infrastructure endowments in Vietnam over the last decade. Chapter 5 presents the analytical framework used to estimate the effect of various types of government spending on growth and poverty reduction. The data, model estimation, and results are presented in chapter 6. We conclude the paper by offering future priorities for government investments in chapter 7.

The last poverty assessment for Rwanda was conducted in 1997. Three years after the genocide, the country was characterized by deep and widespread poverty, rock-bottom health indicators, and pervasive hunger and food insecurity. In real terms, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was lower than it had been in 1960. In real terms, the economy quadrupled between 1995 and 2013. Enrolment in primary school is near universal and infant and child mortality are among the lowest in Africa. A large part of the population, including the extreme poor, is covered by public health insurance. This poverty assessment focuses on the evolution of poverty and other social indicators over the past decade (2000-1 and 2010-11). Using data from a variety of sources, mainly the three household living standards surveys (EICV) and the three demographic and health surveys (DHS) conducted during the past decade, the poverty assessment documents trends in monetary and non-monetary dimensions of living standards and examines the drivers of observed trends. The aim of the poverty assessment is to provide policy makers and development partners with information and analysis that can be used to improve the effectiveness of their poverty reduction and social programs.

Adoption of non-labor agricultural inputs, including pesticides and mineral fertilizers, remains low among small-scale farmers in many low-income countries. Accurate measurement of the quality of these inputs and of quantities deployed is essential for assessing economic returns, understanding the drivers of agricultural productivity, and proposing and evaluating policies for increasing agricultural production. Reviewing evidence regarding the quality of mineral fertilizers and pesticides available to small farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa, this paper summarizes four key findings. First, the available evidence on non-labor input quality to date centers mostly on urea fertilizer and glyphosate herbicide, with limited assessment of other important inputs, including multi-nutrient fertilizers. Second, the evidence shows that nitrogen shortages are exceedingly rare for urea, although quality problems are more common in fertilizer blends including nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium blends, as well as diammonium phosphate, and in glyphosate herbicide. Third, although nutrient shortages in nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium fertilizer blends and diammonium phosphate fertilizer blends are likely attributable to problems with manufacturing and storage, problems with available herbicides could be due to manufacturing issues, counterfeiting, or adulteration. Fourth, although farmers are broadly suspicious of the quality of mineral fertilizer and pesticides, evidence from several studies suggests that these beliefs do not reflect lab-based assessments of quality. In light of these findings, this paper recommends best practices for evaluation of non-labor input quality and summarizes research evaluating farmer assessment of fertilizer and pesticide quality. The paper concludes by identifying key evidentiary gaps related to measuring non-labor agricultural input quality and use, and recommends specific topics for future research.

Identifying opportunities to increase agricultural productivity and incomes is an important priority for rural development. Progress toward poverty reduction continued in recent years, but the contribution of the agriculture sector was weak, mainly because productivity improvements were relatively limited. Using detailed individual-level data on agricultural activities, this paper analyzes agricultural production patterns and associated productivity of farm households. Particular attention is paid to (i) diversification toward higher-value, export-oriented crops as a means to increase productivity and earnings; and (ii) gender differences in farming activities and outcomes. The role of structural factors such as access to land is also considered. There are three key findings in this paper. First, diversified farmers, especially those with a crop mix that is focused on export crops or other high-value crops have higher productivity and earnings. The productivity of paddy cultivation is significantly lower than that of other crops, leading to low earnings. Second, production patterns and productivity levels differ distinctively between men and women farmers. Female farmers have higher productivity, as measured by output value per acre, which is mainly explained by their smaller plot size and a crop mix that consists of higher-value crops. However, despite higher productivity, overall farm incomes are lower among female farmers, mainly due to lower access to land. Third, once land size and crop mix are accounted for, unequal access to resources eventually leads to a male productivity advantage, referred to as conditional advantage, after differential access to resources is controlled for via multivariate analysis. Policies to increase the crop mix toward higher-value, export-oriented crops and to equalize access to resources, including land and agricultural inputs, could help improve productivity and income, and reduce gender disparities.

Despite the richness of the existing literature, it remains a challenge to find rigorous evidence of the impacts of transport connectivity on agricultural production. The paper aims at contributing to the prolonged debate on the transport-agriculture nexus in Africa, by taking advantage of the unique circumstances in Mozambique where the government intensively invested in road infrastructure during a relatively short period of time in the 2010s. With the highly disaggregated location-specific fixed-effects and instrumental variable technique used to control for the endogeneity issue, the paper shows that the improved road connectivity increased agricultural production significantly. In particular, access to domestic markets is found to be important. It is also found that agricultural production exhibits decreasing returns to scale, heavily depending on land input.

This paper presents a multisectoral risk assessment, analyzing natural risks faced by key drivers of socioeconomic development in coastal Vietnam. The analysis quantifies the exposure of assets and economic activity to the following natural hazards: riverine flooding, coastal flooding, typhoon winds, coastal erosion, and saline intrusion. These hazards are analyzed according to their impact on agricultural production, aquaculture, human settlements, industrial zones, tourism, health care facilities, schools, and the electricity transmission network. Overall, the results show the complex nature of natural risk in Vietnam, with significant exposure of key economic sectors, public services and assets. The estimates suggest that exposure varies greatly between hazards, sectors, and provinces. This paper provides detailed technical descriptions of the methodologies, data sources, and analytical assumptions employed to obtain the estimates, and acts as a technical background paper to Resilient Shores: Vietnam's Coastal Development between Opportunity and Disaster Risk (Rentschler et al., 2020).

This paper explores heterogeneity in soil quality, lack of knowledge, and autonomy as explanations for the low adoption of improved agricultural practices. The paper uses data from a randomized field experiment that combined localized soil analyses, tailored input recommendations, extension services, and an in-kind grant. The analysis finds that while neither the degree of recommendation specificity (plot versus cluster level) nor the extent of autonomy (defined as the freedom of choice in spending the in-kind grant) had any effect on adoption during the intervention, farmers with autonomy had substantially higher adoption of improved practices two years after the intervention ended.

To understand the impacts of support programs on global emissions, this paper considers the impacts of domestic subsidies, price distortions at the border, and investments in emission-reducing technologies on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. In a step towards a full evaluation of the impacts, it uses a counterfactual global model scenario showing how much emissions from agricultural production would change if agricultural support were abolished worldwide. The analysis indicates that, without subsidies paid directly to farmers, output of some emission-intensive activities and agricultural emissions would be smaller. Without agricultural trade protection, however, emissions would be higher. This is partly because protection reduces global demand more than it increases global agricultural supply, and partly because some countries that currently tax agriculture have high emission intensities. Policies that directly reduce emission intensities yield much larger reductions in emissions than those that reduce emission intensities by increasing overall productivity because overall productivity growth creates a rebound effect by reducing product prices and expanding output. A key challenge is designing policy reforms that effectively reduce emissions without jeopardizing other key goals such as improving nutrition and reducing poverty. While the scenario analysis in this paper does not propose any particular policy reform, it does provide an important building block towards a full understanding the impacts of repurposed agricultural support measures on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change. That full analysis is being undertaken in subsequent work, which will also take account of land-use change and alternative forms of agricultural policy support to align objectives of food security, farmers’ income security, production efficiency and resilience, and environmental protection.

This paper presents a multisectoral risk assessment, analyzing natural risks faced by key drivers of socioeconomic development in coastal Vietnam. The analysis quantifies the exposure of assets and economic activity to the following natural hazards: riverine flooding, coastal flooding, typhoon winds, coastal erosion, and saline intrusion. These hazards are analyzed according to their impact on agricultural production, aquaculture, human settlements, industrial zones, tourism, health care facilities, schools, and the electricity transmission network. Overall, the results show the complex nature of natural risk in Vietnam, with significant exposure of key economic sectors, public services and assets. The estimates suggest that exposure varies greatly between hazards, sectors, and provinces. This paper provides detailed technical descriptions of the methodologies, data sources, and analytical assumptions employed to obtain the estimates, and acts as a technical background paper to Resilient Shores: Vietnam's Coastal Development between Opportunity and Disaster Risk (Rentschler et al., 2020).

The paper revisits the traditional transport-agricultural growth nexus. Connectivity is particularly challenging for small island developing states, such as the Comoros, where domestic markets are limited and transport and transaction costs tend to be high. Using household survey data from Comoros, the paper shows that significant untapped economic potential exists in the domestic market. The analysis shows that better transport connectivity increases crop production and market sales. Accessibility to Moroni, the primary market in the country, and inter-island connectivity are of particular importance. Not only transport infrastructure, but also services are important. Access to intermediary services, such as cooperatives and collectors, is also found to have a positive impact on crop production and market sales.

The paper revisits the traditional transport-agricultural growth nexus. Connectivity is particularly challenging for small island developing states, such as the Comoros, where domestic markets are limited and transport and transaction costs tend to be high. Using household survey data from Comoros, the paper shows that significant untapped economic potential exists in the domestic market. The analysis shows that better transport connectivity increases crop production and market sales. Accessibility to Moroni, the primary market in the country, and inter-island connectivity are of particular importance. Not only transport infrastructure, but also services are important. Access to intermediary services, such as cooperatives and collectors, is also found to have a positive impact on crop production and market sales.

The 2014-15 Ebola epidemic took a devastating human and economic toll on three West African countries, of which Liberia was perhaps the hardest hit. The pathways through which the crisis affected economic activity in these largely agrarian societies remain poorly understood. To study these mechanisms in the context of rural Liberia, this paper links a geographically disaggregated indicator of Ebola disease mortality to nationally representative household survey data on agricultural production and consumption. The paper finds that higher Ebola prevalence (as proxied by local mortality) led to greater disruption of group labor mobilization for planting and harvest, thereby reducing rice area planted as well as rice yields. Household welfare, measured by per capita expenditures spanning two points before and after the crisis, fell by more in Ebola prevalent areas with more intensive rice farming, precisely those areas that were more adversely affected by agricultural labor shortages.

This paper estimates the profitability of fertilizer and hybrid seeds in Uganda, using agronomic evidence on the yield returns to inputs from experimental fields, as well as output price data from local markets between 2000 and 2012. The results suggest that the returns to fertilizer are positive across the entire price range for beans, maize, and matooke and positive for the top 75 percent of prices for coffee. Commonly available improved seed varieties for maize and beans increase gains by 32 percent on average. However, accounting for the quality of the inputs available to farmers in the market, the sizable positive returns become negative for most of the price distribution, possibly explaining the low adoption of inputs in Uganda. The paper also examines the impact of other factors that could affect input adoption, by using a relatively long panel data set spanning 12 years. The analysis finds evidence that enhanced access to economic markets and past weather conditions have small effects on input use, and positive correlations between the use of extension services and knowledge and input use.

This paper uses a quasi-experimental study of a major bridge construction in Bangladesh to understand the effects of a large reduction in trade costs on the pattern of structural change and agricultural productivity. The paper develops a spatial general equilibrium model with a core and two hinterlands at the opposite sides separated by rivers, and allows for productivity gains through agglomeration in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The model yields insights different from the standard core-periphery and trade models: (i) the newly connected hinterland may experience higher population density and agricultural productivity despite significant de-industrialization; (ii) even with increased specialization in agriculture, the share of agricultural employment may decline when interregional trade requires local services (such as processing and trading); and (iii) the strongest effects on employment structure are felt not necessarily in the areas next to the bridge but in the areas that move out of autarky as a result of the bridge. The empirical estimation uses doubly robust estimators in a difference-in-difference design where the comparison hinterland comes from a region which was supposed to be connected to the core (capital city) by the proposed, but not yet constructed, Padma bridge. In the short run, there is significant labor reallocation from agriculture to services in the connected hinterland, but no perceptible effects on the employment share of manufacturing, population density, and night-lights. In the long run, the labor share of manufacturing declines in the treatment hinterland and increases in the core. However, there are significant positive effects on population density, night light luminosity, and agricultural yields in the treatment hinterland which contradict backwash effects of the bridge. The effects of the bridge on intersectoral labor allocation are spatially heterogeneous, with relatively weak effects in the areas close to the bridge.

Trade and participation in global value chains can play a key role in economic diversification and development. This paper deepens the discussion about productivity growth and upgrading in agriculture in Africa, and the role of national, regional, and international value chains in supporting such structural change. The analysis in this report is based on quantitative and qualitative surveys undertaken in 2016 in Ghana, Kenya, and Zambia, where 3,935 farmers, 60 aggregators, and 56 buyers in the maize, cassava, and sorghum value chains were interviewed in the three countries. The descriptive results show that farmers who were on a contract saw greater structural transformation; higher output; and better access to seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, technology, and extension services compared with farmers who were not on a contract. To identify more robustly the link between value chain participation and contract farming with productivity and upgrading, the paper looks at the relationship using a variety of empirical methodologies, ranging from ordinary least squares and probit regressions to propensity score matching. Based on the empirical evidence, the hypothesis that value chain participation leads to structural transformation cannot be confirmed. The paper does find evidence that formal or informal contractual arrangements that regulate the provision of inputs to production, such as fertilizer, technology, extension services, and market information, positively affect upgrading. It remains nevertheless important to understand the impact of government policies on the emergence of value chains given that value chains support contractual arrangements.

Trade and participation in global value chains can play a key role in economic diversification and development. This paper deepens the discussion about productivity growth and upgrading in agriculture in Africa, and the role of national, regional, and international value chains in supporting such structural change. The analysis in this report is based on quantitative and qualitative surveys undertaken in 2016 in Ghana, Kenya, and Zambia, where 3,935 farmers, 60 aggregators, and 56 buyers in the maize, cassava, and sorghum value chains were interviewed in the three countries. The descriptive results show that farmers who were on a contract saw greater structural transformation; higher output; and better access to seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, technology, and extension services compared with farmers who were not on a contract. To identify more robustly the link between value chain participation and contract farming with productivity and upgrading, the paper looks at the relationship using a variety of empirical methodologies, ranging from ordinary least squares and probit regressions to propensity score matching. Based on the empirical evidence, the hypothesis that value chain participation leads to structural transformation cannot be confirmed. The paper does find evidence that formal or informal contractual arrangements that regulate the provision of inputs to production, such as fertilizer, technology, extension services, and market information, positively affect upgrading. It remains nevertheless important to understand the impact of government policies on the emergence of value chains given that value chains support contractual arrangements.

This paper studies the effects of a large reduction in transport costs on agricultural development in a developing country, with a focus on the interactions among the comparative advantage and transport costs of a location, and the transport intensity and value of a commodity. The paper extends the von Thunen model of land allocation to incorporate costly technology adoption and comparative advantage based on land productivity. The theoretical analysis predicts spatial non-linearity in cropland allocation. A reduction in transport costs leads to adoption of productivity-enhancing inputs in the newly-connected region, and an increase in the share of land devoted to the high-value transport-intensive crop. The strongest effect is felt in areas that are not too near or too far from the center and have a higher land productivity in transport intensive crop. The empirical context of the analysis is the Jamuna bridge in Bangladesh, which opened in 1998 and reduced the transport costs from the poor hinterland in the northwest to the capital city (Dhaka) by more than 50 percent. Using sub-district level panel data, the paper implements doubly robust estimators in a difference-in-difference design. The analysis finds that the construction of Jamuna bridge led to increased adoption of technology (fertilizer, irrigation, greenness, and cropping intensity) and reallocation of land from low-value and nonperishable rice to high-value crops, pulses, and vegetables. The evidence indicates spatial nonlinearity in the effects on cropping intensity and the reallocation of land in areas with comparative advantage in vegetable production. For cropping intensity, the magnitude of the effect is large in the intermediate distance (130-150 kilometers) from the bridge. In areas with relatively higher vegetable productivity, land allocated to rice declined, and land was reallocated from high-yielding variety rice to vegetables in the intermediate distance (110-150 kilometers). This improved productive efficiency by aligning the cropping pattern more closely with comparative advantage. The bridge thus led to agricultural development through technology adoption, higher cropping intensity, and reducing the spatial mismatch between land suitability and crop choice.

This paper uses a quasi-experimental study of a major bridge construction in Bangladesh to understand the effects of a large reduction in trade costs on the pattern of structural change and agricultural productivity. The paper develops a spatial general equilibrium model with a core and two hinterlands at the opposite sides separated by rivers, and allows for productivity gains through agglomeration in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The model yields insights different from the standard core-periphery and trade models: (i) the newly connected hinterland may experience higher population density and agricultural productivity despite significant de-industrialization; (ii) even with increased specialization in agriculture, the share of agricultural employment may decline when interregional trade requires local services (such as processing and trading); and (iii) the strongest effects on employment structure are felt not necessarily in the areas next to the bridge but in the areas that move out of autarky as a result of the bridge. The empirical estimation uses doubly robust estimators in a difference-in-difference design where the comparison hinterland comes from a region which was supposed to be connected to the core (capital city) by the proposed, but not yet constructed, Padma bridge. In the short run, there is significant labor reallocation from agriculture to services in the connected hinterland, but no perceptible effects on the employment share of manufacturing, population density, and night-lights. In the long run, the labor share of manufacturing declines in the treatment hinterland and increases in the core. However, there are significant positive effects on population density, night light luminosity, and agricultural yields in the treatment hinterland which contradict backwash effects of the bridge. The effects of the bridge on intersectoral labor allocation are spatially heterogeneous, with relatively weak effects in the areas close to the bridge.

This paper studies the effects of a large reduction in transport costs on agricultural development in a developing country, with a focus on the interactions among the comparative advantage and transport costs of a location, and the transport intensity and value of a commodity. The paper extends the von Thunen model of land allocation to incorporate costly technology adoption and comparative advantage based on land productivity. The theoretical analysis predicts spatial non-linearity in cropland allocation. A reduction in transport costs leads to adoption of productivity-enhancing inputs in the newly-connected region, and an increase in the share of land devoted to the high-value transport-intensive crop. The strongest effect is felt in areas that are not too near or too far from the center and have a higher land productivity in transport intensive crop. The empirical context of the analysis is the Jamuna bridge in Bangladesh, which opened in 1998 and reduced the transport costs from the poor hinterland in the northwest to the capital city (Dhaka) by more than 50 percent. Using sub-district level panel data, the paper implements doubly robust estimators in a difference-in-difference design. The analysis finds that the construction of Jamuna bridge led to increased adoption of technology (fertilizer, irrigation, greenness, and cropping intensity) and reallocation of land from low-value and nonperishable rice to high-value crops, pulses, and vegetables. The evidence indicates spatial nonlinearity in the effects on cropping intensity and the reallocation of land in areas with comparative advantage in vegetable production. For cropping intensity, the magnitude of the effect is large in the intermediate distance (130-150 kilometers) from the bridge. In areas with relatively higher vegetable productivity, land allocated to rice declined, and land was reallocated from high-yielding variety rice to vegetables in the intermediate distance (110-150 kilometers). This improved productive efficiency by aligning the cropping pattern more closely with comparative advantage. The bridge thus led to agricultural development through technology adoption, higher cropping intensity, and reducing the spatial mismatch between land suitability and crop choice.

The traditional location theory predicts that firms' locational choice is independent of the output demand. However, firms are often concentrated in large markets. In Africa, agrobusinesses are expected to play an important role to facilitate agricultural growth but are hardly available in rural areas. This paper examines the question of why agribusinesses are not located in local production areas despite the clear benefits expected from close proximity to their inputs. By applying the spatial autocorrelation Tobit model, the paper estimates the impacts of market and farm accessibility on agglomeration of new agrobusinesses in Madagascar. The findings show that market accessibility and agglomeration economies are important for attracting more agrobusinesses. The quality of labor is also an important determinant for their locational choice. The findings are consistent with some models of location theory: firms move away from rural areas where they may still have monopsony power, toward urban areas where productivity is higher.

In the past 10 years, Ethiopia experienced high and consistent growth, invested in public goods provision to poor households, and saw impressive gains in well-being for many households. This paper exploits variation in sectoral growth and public goods provision across zones and time, to examine whether poverty reduction was driven by growth and provision of public goods and what type of growth -- growth in agriculture, manufacturing, or services -- was more effective at reducing poverty. The paper pays particular attention to controlling for other drivers of poverty reduction and instrumenting growth in a sector of particular policy focus -- agriculture -- to identify causal effects. The analysis finds that reductions in poverty were largest in places where agricultural output growth has been higher, safety nets have been introduced, and improvements in market access have been made. Agricultural output growth caused reductions in poverty of 2.2 percent per year on average post-2005, and 0.1 percent per year prior to 2005. The government's policy focus on stimulating productivity gains in smallholder cereal farmers contributed to this growth, but only when the weather was good, and prices were high. Access to markets was essential: agricultural growth reduced poverty in places close to urban centers, but not in remote parts of the country.

This paper addresses two main questions: (1) What are the binding constraints to Guinea's economic growth? and (2) What would it take to accelerate growth in the country? Using the growth diagnostic approach, the paper finds three binding constraints to growth: (i) lack of good infrastructure (roads and electricity), (ii) low access to finance, and (iii) poor governance. Simulation results highlight the need for total factor productivity growth for higher gross domestic product growth rates over the medium term. Specifically, Guinea needs 1 to 2 percent total factor productivity growth to maintain 5 to 7 percent gross domestic product growth, with a 16 to 21 percent investment rate by 2020. The lower bound of the range of the investment rate is similar to Guinea's experience in the past decade; the upper bound is slightly superior to the country's recent performance. The paper discusses some of the policy options to consider to address the key binding constraints to economic growth as well as to overcome the challenge of increasing total factor productivity growth in Guinea.

The economic thinking around the role of agriculture for development has evolved since the 1950s. Over the past decades, the agriculture sector has been rediscovered as a sector with great potential for triggering growth, reducing poverty and inequality, providing food security, and delivering environmental services. This paper contributes to the literature on the determinants of agricultural development by investigating the role played by laws and regulations. First, the paper proposes new measures of regulatory quality and regulatory efficiency in agriculture. Second, the paper employs cross-section data to test the relationship of the proposed measures with agricultural performance. The results indicate that agricultural productivity is on average higher where transaction costs imposed by regulations are lower and where countries adhere to more regulatory good practices. This relationship is stronger when low transaction costs and regulatory good practices are combined.

Rural access is among the most important infrastructure elements to stimulate economic growth in rural and remote areas. The sustainability of feeder road maintenance is a challenge in many developing countries. Many feeder roads are unpaved and need to be maintained frequently, but they are often neglected under budget pressure. Output- and performance-based road contracts are an instrument to ensure the sustainability of road maintenance. Contractors are required not only to improve roads, but also to maintain them. Using micro data from household surveys in Zambia, the paper examines the impacts of output- and performance-based road contracts on agricultural production. It shows that the contracts have a significant impact on crop production, especially maize and groundnuts, two major crops grown in the study area. The paper also finds that the measured impacts are associated with actual road maintenance works, regardless of contractual methods. Any road work can improve people's connectivity, even if it is not an output- and performance-based road contracts. The impact of the contracts is catalytic: more road works were implemented on contract roads than non-contract roads, holding everything else constant. This is an important contribution to the sustainability of road maintenance. Finally, road improvement works are found to facilitate farmers' market participation, but the impact seems weak. There may be other constraints. Transport service costs are found to have a negative impact on farmers' market sales. Thus, although roads are improved, transport services may be not available or too expensive, which still hamper farmers' market participation.

This paper evaluates the effect of the Rural Capacity Building Project, which aimed at promoting growth by strengthening the agricultural service systems in Ethiopia and by making them more responsive to smallholders' needs. The project intended to increase the outreach of agricultural extension services to help farmers become aware of and adopt economically viable and environmentally sustainable technologies and practices. The paper examines the impact of the Rural Capacity Building Project using panel data on 1,485 geographically dispersed households in project and control kebeles. The results show that the strengthening of extension services had a positive impact on economic participation in the household, land area cultivated, and adoption of marketable crops, suggesting that access to extension helped farmers switch to more commercial, market-oriented agriculture. In addition, and contrary to previous evidence from other countries, female-headed households seem to have benefited equally from the project. However, the project was not able to reduce the preexisting gender gap in agricultural outcomes.

This paper revisits the decades-old puzzle of the inverse plot-size productivity relationship, which states that land productivity decreases as plot size increases. Existing empirical studies on the inverse plot-size productivity relationship define land productivity or yields as self-reported production divided by plot size. This paper considers an alternative approach to estimating yields based on crop cuts. The crop-cut method entails measuring and harvesting randomly selected subplots by trained technicians, and is recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization for the accurate measurement of crop production. Using data representative of rural Ethiopia, the analysis indicates that the inverse relationship is strong when based on self-reported production, but disappears when based on crop-cut estimates. The inference from these findings is that the inverse relationship is an artifact of systematic overreporting of production by farmers on small plots, and underreporting on larger plots. The paper also discusses how rejecting the inverse plot-size productivity relationship has significant implications for the inverse farm-size productivity relationship.

This paper proposes a new interpretation of the farm size-productivity relationship. Using two rounds of the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey, and drawing on earlier work on five countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, the paper shows that the relationship between farm size and productivity is neither monotonic nor univocal. Most previous studies that tested the inverse farm size-productivity relationship used ordinary least squares estimation, therefore reporting parameter estimates at the conditional mean of productivity. By expanding these important findings to consider the entire distribution of agricultural productivity, the analysis finds sign switches across the distribution, pointing to a “direct-inverse-direct” relationship. Less productive farmers exhibit an inverted U-shape relationship between land productivity and farm size, while more productive farmers show a U-shape relationship that reverses the relationship. In both cases, the relationship points toward a threshold value of farm size; however, the threshold is a minimum for the less productive farmers and a maximum for the more productive ones. To the left of the threshold, for very small farmers, the relationship between productivity and farm size is positive; for the range of middle farm size, the relationship is negative; and to the right of the threshold, the relationship is direct (positive) again. From a policy perspective, these findings imply that efficiency-enhancing and redistributive land reform should consider farm size in the proper context of the present and potential levels of agricultural productivity. The results and their policy implications underline the relevance of the most recent efforts of the international development community to collect more reliable georeferenced data on farm size and agricultural productivity.

Agriculture remains an important economic sector in Africa, employing a large share of the labor force and earning foreign exchange. Among others, transport connectivity has long been a crucial constraint in Africa. In theory, railways have a particularly important role to play in shipping freight and passengers at low cost. However, most African railways were in virtual bankruptcy by the 1990s. Using a large sample of data comprised of more than 190,000 households over eight years in Ethiopia, the paper estimates the impacts of rail transport on agricultural production. Methodologically, the paper takes advantage of the historical event that a major rail line connecting the country to the regional hub, the Port of Djibouti, was abandoned in the 2000s. With spatially highly disaggregated fixed effects and instrumental variables incorporated, an agricultural production function is estimated. The elasticity with respect to port connectivity is estimated at 0.276. The use of fertilizer is also found to increase with transport cost reduction, supporting the fact that a large amount of fertilizer is imported to Ethiopia.

Shaping the Food System to Deliver Jobs is the fourth paper in a series on The Future of Food. This paper focuses on how the food system can deliver jobs. It provides a framework for understanding the factors determining the number and quality of jobs in the food system, including inclusion of women and youth. It highlights a set of actions that countries can adopt, adapt, and apply to their own circumstances to enhance the food system’s contribution to jobs. The food system extends beyond farm production to include food storage, processing, distribution, transport, retailing, restaurants and other services. The paper finds that the food system employs the most people in many developing countries in both self and wage employment, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. In many countries the off-farm aspect of the food system accounts for a large share of the economy’s manufacturing and services sectors. While the employment share in farming tends to decline as per capita incomes rise, the share in food manufacturing and services tends to increase. Urbanization and per capita income growth offers significant new opportunities in non-cereal products and in new jobs in the food system beyond the farm.

Measures of cognitive, noncognitive, and technical skills are increasingly used in development economics to analyze the determinants of skill formation, the role of skills in economic decisions, or simply because they are potential confounders. Yet in most cases, these measures have only been validated in high-income countries. This paper tests the reliability and validity of some of the most commonly used skills measures in a rural developing context. A survey with a series of skills measurements was administered to more than 900 farmers in western Kenya, and the same questions were asked again after three weeks to test the reliability of the measures. To test predictive power, the study also collected information on agricultural practices and production during the four following seasons. The results show the cognitive skills measures are reliable and internally consistent, while technical skills are difficult to capture and very noisy. The evidence further suggests that measurement error in noncognitive skills is non-classical, as correlations between questions are driven in part by the answering patterns of the respondents and the phrasing of the questions. Addressing both random and systematic measurement error using common psychometric practices and repeated measures leads to improvements and clearer predictions, but does not address all concerns. The paper provides a cautionary tale for naïve interpretations of skill measures. It also points to the importance of addressing measurement challenges to establish the relationship of different skills with economic outcomes. Based on these findings, the paper derives guidelines for skill measurement and interpretation in similar contexts.

From 2000 to 2014, per capita gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa increased by almost 35 percent in real terms, doubling in some countries. Such progress happened while agricultural productivity growth remained low in the aggregate, despite some bright spots, and poverty reduction was steady but discouragingly slow. This paper argues that ending extreme poverty will require structural change in agriculture, and in rural African economies more broadly. Drawing on a range of recent research, the paper outlines broad priority areas for policy actions to accelerate productivity and initiate structural change in the agriculture sector and the rural nonfarm economy.

Uganda's growth in gross domestic product of the 2000s was accompanied by high growth rates of labor productivity across industries producing tradable goods and services. This came about primarily as a result of investment in equipment and other fixed assets, but also entailed substantial gains in total factor productivity Based on data from two waves of the Uganda Business Indicators survey this paper estimates that economy wide aggregate labor productivity and aggregate TFP grew at average annual rates of 13 t and 3 percent, respectively between survey years 2002 and 2009. Part of the growth in productivity on each measure reflected gains from technical progress made at the establishment level and within narrowly defined industries. But it was also in part the outcome of reallocation of labor and capital within as well as across industries. In particular, the paper estimates that about one-fifth of the aggregate growth in labor productivity between the two years reflected the shifting of labor toward industries and sectors where it was more productive on average and at the margin. The rest of the observed growth in labor productivity reflected gains made within narrowly defined industries. But almost in every case 55 to 90 percent of the observed"within industry"growth in labor productivity represented allocative efficiency gains from the correction of intra-industry inter-firm misallocation of labor. The balance of the observed within-industry growth in labor productivity represented establishment-level gains in technical efficiency.

Improving the productivity of smallholder farms in Sub-Saharan Africa offers the best chance to reduce poverty among this generation of rural poor, by building on the limited resources farming households already possess. It is also the best and shortest path to meet rising food needs. Using examples from farmers' maize and rice fields, and comparisons with Asia, this paper examines why the set of technologies promoted to date have produced localized successes rather than transformational change. The paper explains the limitations of alternative policies that are not centered on small farms. It provides indicative examples of how resource-management technologies can supplement seed-fertilizer technologies to speed an African Green Revolution.

Improving the productivity of smallholder farms in Sub-Saharan Africa offers the best chance to reduce poverty among this generation of rural poor, by building on the limited resources farming households already possess. It is also the best and shortest path to meet rising food needs. Using examples from farmers' maize and rice fields, and comparisons with Asia, this paper examines why the set of technologies promoted to date have produced localized successes rather than transformational change. The paper explains the limitations of alternative policies that are not centered on small farms. It provides indicative examples of how resource-management technologies can supplement seed-fertilizer technologies to speed an African Green Revolution.

This paper provides evidence on the impacts of agricultural productivity on employment growth and structural transformation of non-farm activities. To guide the empirical work, this paper develops a general equilibrium model that emphasizes distinctions among non-farm activities in terms of tradable-non-tradable and the formal-informal characteristics. The model shows that when a significant portion of village income is spent on town/urban goods, restricting empirical analysis to the village sample leads to underestimation of agriculture's role in employment growth and transformation of non-farm activities. Using rainfall as an instrument for agricultural productivity, empirical analysis finds a significant positive effect of agricultural productivity growth on growth of informal (small-scale) manufacturing and skilled services employment, mainly in education and health services. For formal employment, the effect of agricultural productivity growth on employment is found to be largest in the samples that include urban areas and rural towns compared with rural areas alone. Agricultural productivity growth is found to induce structural transformation within the services sector with employment in formal/skilled services growing at a faster pace than that of low skilled services.

There is no doubt that the poorest people are already and will continue to be most severely impacted by climatic changes, including shifting trends as well as more frequent and severe extreme events. Yet, new insights on the dynamics and distribution of poverty point to the need to comprehend where the poor and poorest are, how they are poor, and why their poverty constrains their abilities to cope with and adapt to occurring and predicted changes. This paper draws on a diverse and growing literature on climate change and poverty to argue that uneven power relations more so than exposure and sensitivity to climatic hazards make the poor and disadvantaged distinctly more vulnerable than more affluent, privileged, and powerful groups and individuals. Further, climatic stressors and climate change as well as climate policies, often entangled with social exclusion and institutional neglect, compound the issue of poverty and exacerbate human precariousness, hence acting as a threat multiplier. The paper compares different approaches to assessing poverty, and explores structural processes and power dynamics that drive or perpetuate inequalities. The paper also investigates how the currently nonpoor may become transient or chronic poor, how climate change may exacerbate poverty traps, and how interventions to curb emissions and multidimensional poverty may be tackled to pursue climate-resilient development pathways.

This paper provides evidence on the impacts of agricultural productivity on employment growth and structural transformation of non-farm activities. To guide the empirical work, this paper develops a general equilibrium model that emphasizes distinctions among non-farm activities in terms of tradable-non-tradable and the formal-informal characteristics. The model shows that when a significant portion of village income is spent on town/urban goods, restricting empirical analysis to the village sample leads to underestimation of agriculture's role in employment growth and transformation of non-farm activities. Using rainfall as an instrument for agricultural productivity, empirical analysis finds a significant positive effect of agricultural productivity growth on growth of informal (small-scale) manufacturing and skilled services employment, mainly in education and health services. For formal employment, the effect of agricultural productivity growth on employment is found to be largest in the samples that include urban areas and rural towns compared with rural areas alone. Agricultural productivity growth is found to induce structural transformation within the services sector with employment in formal/skilled services growing at a faster pace than that of low skilled services.

Even after several decades of green revolution, malnutrition continues to be a major development challenge in much of South Asia, and India has a major share of the malnourished people in the region. For nutrition goals to be integrated into extension the curricula provided to current and future agricultural extension agents must be revisited. As part of the South Asia Food and Nutrition Security Initiative (SAFANSI), this paper focuses on approaches to incorporating such nutrition content into the agricultural extension curriculum. Three state agricultural universities in Tamil Nadu, united Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar were used as case studies for the curriculum review. Through these case studies, face-to-face consultations at the national level down to program implementation at the village level have been developed. These include consultative workshops, and a conceptual framework and strategy for incorporating nutrition into extension curriculum development to improve nutrition outcomes. This strategy, detailed in this report, includes opportunities for collaboration from the national level to the community level. Specific lessons and follow-up actions are outlined that may be useful for other South Asian countries. The paper is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two reviews current literature on agriculture-nutrition linkages to develop a conceptual framework for integrating nutrition into agricultural extension programs. Research methods and approaches are given in chapter three. Results and discussions are given in chapter four. Lessons from the case studies are presented in chapter five, and chapter six consists of concluding remarks.

People living in poverty are particularly vulnerable to shocks, including those caused by natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Previous studies in local contexts have shown that poor people are also often overrepresented in hazard-prone areas. However, systematic evidence across countries demonstrating this finding is lacking. This paper analyzes at the country level whether poor people are disproportionally exposed to floods and droughts, and how this exposure may change in a future climate. To this end, household survey data with spatial identifiers from 52 countries are combined with present-day and future flood and drought hazard maps. The paper defines and calculates a “poverty exposure bias” and finds support that poor people are often overexposed to droughts and urban floods. For floods, no such signal is found for rural households, suggesting that different mechanisms—such as land scarcity—are more important drivers in urban areas. The poverty exposure bias does not change significantly under future climate scenarios, although the absolute number of people potentially exposed to floods or droughts can increase or decrease significantly, depending on the scenario and the region. The study finds some evidence of regional patterns: in particular, many countries in Africa exhibit a positive poverty exposure bias for floods and droughts. For these hot spots, implementing risk-sensitive land-use and development policies that protect poor people should be a priority.

This paper examines whether labor productivity converged across Peru’s regions (“departments”) during 2002-12. Given the large differences in labor productivity across the regions of Peru, such convergence has the potential to raise aggregate productivity and incomes, and also reduce regional inequalities. The paper finds that labor productivity in the secondary sector (especially manufacturing) and the mining sector has converged across Peruvian departments. The paper does not find robust evidence for labor productivity convergence in agriculture and services. These patterns are consistent with recent cross-country evidence and with the hypothesis that productivity convergence is more likely in sectors with greater scope for market integration, because of the effects of competition and knowledge flows. The convergence in labor productivity within manufacturing and mining has been sufficient to lead to convergence in aggregate labor productivity across departments. But because services and agriculture continue to employ the majority of workers in Peru, aggregate convergence is slower than that within manufacturing. The paper also finds that poverty rates are not converging across departments. The limited impact of labor productivity convergence on poverty could be tied to the facts that not all sectors are experiencing productivity convergence, poorer people are employed in sectors where convergence has been slower (such as agriculture), and there is very little labor reallocation toward converging sectors (such as manufacturing).

This paper disentangles different aspects of land fragmentation and its impact on the efficiency of resource use. The paper uses information on the incidence of crop shocks to assess whether fragmentation provides benefits in reducing risk and parcel coordinates and terrain-adjusted travel times between parcels to more precisely account for the associated costs in 2010/11 data from Rwanda. While fragmentation increases the time required to move between a household’s parcels, this does not appear to affect overall technical efficiency on the farm. Fragmentation rather reduces the incidence of crop shocks and increases yields and productive efficiency. In Rwanda’s setting, interventions to reduce fragmentation may, therefore, be ineffective or counterproductive.

The purpose of this paper is to summarize the challenges and the practical successes that a selected number of countries are experiencing in moving towards 'climate-smart' agriculture while also meeting the food requirements of a growing population, broader economic development and green growth objectives. It complements papers prepared in 2010 on technologies and policy instruments, research, and farmers' perspectives. The paper is also intended to provide a broad country perspective to two additional papers produced for a meeting of African Ministers of Agriculture which took place in Johannesburg in September 2011. The main conclusion is that a number of countries have made impressive progress in integrating 'climate-smart agriculture' into broader development and growth programs. Several countries are supporting policy measures and programs to conserve soil and moisture while enhancing productivity and competitiveness, and are addressing the particular concerns of drought-prone semi-arid areas. They are improving agricultural water management and watershed management, and addressing sea-surges, salinity and coastal flooding. Some countries are also including climate-smart agriculture as a core element in broader green growth agendas. The private sector has a key role to play in climate-smart agriculture, especially where the enabling environment has been favorable. Achieving climate-smart agriculture needs an integrated approach, tackling productivity and food security, risk and resilience, and low carbon growth together, but integration and institutional coordination remains a challenge in many countries.

Agricultural investments made by developing countries and multilateral development banks (MDBs) have declined in recent decades. This decline is associated with a slowdown in the growth of agriculture productivity. Most development institutions have recognized the damage caused by this past neglect, in part evident in rising food prices, and renewed attention to agriculture and agribusiness is emerging. But this renewed interest will need to deliver results, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the MDBs have had the least success but where the needs and opportunities are enormous. This paper synthesizes recent work by the independent evaluation agency members of the Evaluation Cooperation Group (ECG) and incorporates lessons from related research by MDBs and from the academic literature on agriculture and agribusiness. The objectives of the paper, in addition to distilling evaluative lessons for agriculture and agribusiness, are to examine the key constraints on the sector and to provide evaluators, operational staff, and policy makers with an evaluative perspective on interventions in countries at different stages of development.

Biologically diverse ecosystems in countries served by the World Bank provide an array of valuable economic services. While the benefits of conserving ecosystems frequently outweigh the costs, conversion of these ecosystems to other uses occurs anyway, because many ecosystem benefits are of a public good nature, without markets that would reflect their real value. The objective of this paper was defined at a Concept review meeting held on December 2009 and is to increase the understanding on how biodiversity is incorporated in a development agency such as the World Bank Group (WBG) and how the WBG can enhance its role in biodiversity and ecosystems protection and management as a key ingredient to reach development sustainability. In order to define a reasonable strategy to prepare this paper, two approaches were used: the first was to carry out background and analytical studies, and the second was to consult with a wide range of stakeholders including Bank staff, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), and indigenous groups. Biodiversity provides many instrumental benefits, from food and fuel to recreation. But even where biodiversity is not immediately instrumental, it represents global public goods that must be protected, if only for their potential value in the future. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) has been the mainstay of grants implemented by the Bank ($1.4 billion) for biodiversity conservation and management, but the Bank has itself committed $2 billion in loans and has leveraged $2.9 billion in co-financing.

World prices for staple foods increased between 2006 and 2008, and accelerated sharply in 2008. Initial analysis indicated that the adverse effects of higher food prices in Uganda were likely to be small because of the diversity of its staple foods, high level of food self-sufficiency, and weak links with world markets. This paper extends the previous analyses, disaggregating by regions and individual food items, using more recent price data, and estimating the impact on consumption poverty. The analysis finds that poor households in Uganda tend to be net buyers of food staples, and therefore suffer welfare losses when food prices increase. This is most pronounced in urban areas, but holds true for most rural households as well. The diversity of staple foods has not been an effective buffer because of price increases across a range of staple foods. The paper estimates that both the incidence and depth of poverty have increased -- at least in the short run -- as a result of higher food prices in 2008, increasing by 2.6 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. The increase in poverty is highest in the Northern region, which is already the poorest in Uganda. The need for mitigating social protection measures appears to be greater than previously recognized. Not only are the negative impacts larger, but they are also much more widespread geographically. This suggests the need for continued close monitoring of the situation, including monitoring the adequacy of existing safety nets and feeding programs.

This paper explores how a 'conflict and violence sensitive' framework in project assessment, design and implementation facilitates early identification and mitigation of negative consequences of competition and dispute, and promotes sustainable development over the longer term. It discusses the role of renewable resources in perpetuating conflict and violence, and distills lessons from selected development programming experiences in managing conflict risks associated with these dynamics. The study emphasizes that building capacity to productively address conflict and to improve community resilience to ecological change decreases vulnerability to violence, and improves livelihoods particularly for the world's poorest communities. The study draws on a range of development experience and specifically examines six case studies: three from the World Bank portfolio and three external to the Bank. Of the World Bank projects, the paper considers Andhra Pradesh Community Forest Management Project (India), Land Conflict and Vulnerability Pilot Project (Afghanistan), and Second Fadama Development Project (Nigeria). The paper also studies three external cases: conservation of managed indigenous areas (Ecuador) and Building the Capacity of Institut Congolais pour la Conservation de la Nature (ICCN) to Resolve and Manage Environmental Conflicts in Virunga National Park (DRC), both financed by U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID); and the Community Development Component of German Technical Cooperation's (GTZ's) Palestinian Water Program (West Bank). The concluding chapter outlines good practice and lessons learned from experience, emphasizing principals for building institutional and organizational capacity that support constructive conflict management.

The relative prosperity enjoyed by Uganda during the 1960s, based largely on the traditional exports of coffee, tea, cotton, and tobacco, was eroded by a devastating civil war over the period 1971 to 1985. The paper is based upon interviews with selected respondents, including government authorities, exporting companies, donors, and practitioner organizations, carried out in 2007 and 2008. The paper is divided into four sections. Section one provides a brief historical perspective on the emergence of the Ugandan fruit and vegetable export industry and examines the role played by different government and donor initiatives in the initial shaping of the sector, between the late 1980s and late 1990s. Section two highlights the strategic commercial approaches adopted by Ugandan exporting companies and farmers during the 2000s in response to past performance and in the face of evolving regulatory and market requirements, especially in the European Union. Section three examines the rationale for, means of support of, and apparent efficacy of a range of recent programs seeking to improve or sustain the competitiveness of Uganda's fruit and vegetable exports via improved compliance with regulatory or private standards. Lessons are drawn from this experience. Section four provides a brief set of general conclusions.

This joint working paper lays out a rationale and strategic framework for improving food security and managing food-price shocks in the Arab countries. The paper does not provide country specific policy and project recommendations. Such recommendations will follow from the country by country application of the framework, taking into account each country's political and cultural preferences, resource endowments, and risk tolerance. In 2007 and the first half of 2008, a sharp rise in agricultural commodity and food prices triggered grave concerns about food security, malnutrition and increased poverty throughout the world. While the threat of a prolonged food-price shock receded with falling energy and commodity prices and a weakening global economy in the second half of 2008, many factors underlying the volatility in food prices appear here to stay and will require careful management if the world is to avoid future food-price shocks. This paper suggests three critical strategies that, together, can serve as pillars to help offset future vulnerability to price shocks: a) strengthen safety nets, provide people with better access to family planning services, and promote education; b) enhance the food supply provided by domestic agriculture and improve rural livelihoods by addressing lagging productivity growth through increased investment in research and development; and c) reduce exposure to market volatility by improving supply chain efficiency and by more effectively using financial instruments to hedge risk.