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In recent years, the Modi government has taken an active role in integrating regional infrastructure, participating in the geopolitical game in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific through infrastructure diplomacy and promoting development cooperation in the Global South. This paper examines India's intentions and actions in integrating regional infrastructure. It also explores the prospects and impacts in the context of Modi 3.0's shift to a 'Bharat first' foreign policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to expand the concept of a contractual natural resource curse and suggests another channel that may not be addressed as one of the resource curse channels in petrostate countries since there remains little understanding of the Resource Curse Hypothesis (RCH), by which economic sanctions bring a new manifestation and shape the prospect of international economic relations. A sample of 21 petrostate economies is investigated over 1995–2018. The empirical results show a symptom of the oil curse from a new transmission channel under the international relations arena. This result supports our argument that the interactive relationship between sanctions and oil dependence affects sanctioned countries' economic growth. Transmission channels determine whether natural resources are either a curse or a blessing. Our study found evidence supporting the concept of the oil resource curse taking place through economic sanctions. Hence, the presence of such a negative link casts new light on the debate concerning the influence of natural resource/oil resource curse on the international relations–growth nexus. Policy research needs to be conducted in understanding and mitigating the resource curse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several documents that relate to articles that appeared in the January/February 2000 issue of "Issues & Studies," are presented.

South Asia is becoming one of the most fiercely competitive battlegrounds between India and China. Located at the center of South Asia and with its large geographical area, population, and economic size, superior military strength compared to other countries in the region, India has always been the most influential power in the region. But in the past decade, China's intensified partnership with small countries in South Asia has threatened India's number one position in the region. It is the challenges posed by China in South Asia, inter alia, that have forced India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi to make various important foreign policy adjustments. To interpret India–China competition in South Asia in aspects of diplomacy, economy, security and defense, the paper uses international relations theories including constructivism, neo-realism (particularly offensive realism) and the balance of threat theory. Although the paper analyzes India–China competition in all three areas of diplomacy, economy and military security, the authors are of the view that, the most fundamental motivation of China and India in this competition is to achieve power and security and not economic objectives. While China's strategic calculation leans towards its ambitions to gain greater power in the geopolitical order, India's strategic calculation leans towards ensuring its security. By using qualitative methods and utilizing secondary data including books, treatises, articles and policy briefs ... , this paper analyzes the strategic calculations of India and China in South Asia. The paper argues that China's intention is to emulate and then overtake India in the very region of India's traditional influence, while India's strategy is to maintain and strengthen its number one position in the region. Though China's influence in the region seems to have overwhelmed over India, India with all its internal forces is also hindering China's penetrating steps into South Asian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the limits of implementing a cyber deterrence strategy in East Asia. Given that national security documents from both Taiwan and Japan indicate the need to deter state-sponsored cyberattacks, there is very little literature that empirically and theoretically investigates the utility of such an approach in this region. This paper looks into the various deterrence constructs and argues that none of them can be implemented without problems. The paper looks further into a deeper level of the conceptual issues upon which deterrence thinking is based and argues that an alternative strategy promoting regional cooperation is not only possible but also desirable in the current political climate. It is later concluded that looking for a one-size-fits-all solution is idealistic, and policymakers should develop security countermeasures that align with the threats posed by the actors they wish to confront. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In modern times, system energy load forecasting is an extremely important process in a variety of contexts. Moreover, energy load time series fluctuations are influenced by a wide range of factors, ranging, inter alia, from environmental conditions, natural events, and demographics to both regional and global geopolitical contexts, economic conditions, energy sources, policies, and regulations. Given these, this paper examines the integration of news information from the global scene into Greek energy load forecasting schemes through the use of sentiment analysis. Investigating the ways the general emotional footprint of news worldwide affects and can be used in an energy modeling context, we benchmark possible ensemble configurations incorporating a multitude of 31 emotion polarities. Building on our previous work, an ensemble method that exploits specific outputs from a multi-label sentiment classifier and a sentiment analysis procedure under a multivariate forecasting scheme is presented. It is shown, through an empirical evaluation of the results, that the integration of emotion representations related to non-Greek news concerning global current affairs improves the predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After Anwar Ibrahim assumed office in November 2022, Malaysia's China policy, including its stance towards the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), was again thrust into the limelight. This paper analyses Malaysia's responses towards BRI since 2013 and argues that the "shift" is not to abandon its cooperation or adjust its overall foreign policy with China, but to cater for two sets of domestic considerations – the need for development and inter-elite competition, and eventual regime legitimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the Narendra Modi's administration, India has been implementing a pragmatic foreign policy following realistic principles toward China. By using methods of policy analysis, in combination with content analysis and discourse research, the paper demonstrates that India's policy toward China under the Prime Minister (PM) Modi's leadership is a set of strategic responses of a rising power to an assertive neighbor who is rising at global level. This set of responses includes a policy of cooperation when it sees China as a partner, a policy of containment when it sees China as a rival, a policy of conflict management when it sees China as a neighbor who has direct territorial disputes; and a policy of balance of power when it sees China as an opponent. The authors of the paper are of the view that one of the key elements in India's policies toward China is that it is a combination of both cooperation and competition aspects. In addition, it is to be seen that India has simultaneously used various channels to implement these policies toward China to secure its national goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vietnam and India became exceptional friends in the context of globalization and global and regional security in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. India paid a significant consideration to South East Asia and expanded its role in this region in the early 21st century. Meanwhile, Vietnam is one country that experienced a thriving economy in its international and regional integrations. This country has a pressing demand for bilateral and multilateral cooperation with all countries in the world. Especially, the objective of rising India's soft power along with its hard power contributed to promoting India's benefits and involvement in Southeast Asia and Vietnam. Likewise, Vietnam has been fully aware of India's intervention in disputes in the South China Sea and its well-meaning plans to tighten relations with Vietnam over various fields. Vietnam considered India as a partner to conduct Vietnam's soft power. Since Strategic Partnership (2007), Vietnam has accelerated this relation through cultural exchanges, cultural projects, and shared values of Indian culture. Thus, the image of Vietnam becomes familiar to Indian people. Likewise, India encouraged Vietnam to hold cultural events and academic seminars to exchange ideologies, opinions, and plans for many domains. Vietnam is also a goal of India's soft power in Southeast Asia. This paper aims to examine cultural diplomacy in Vietnam's foreign policy in Vietnam–India diplomatic relations mainly based on theories of Liberalism, public diplomacy, and soft power. Thus, it clarifies cultural diplomacy in Vietnam and India's foreign policy. Finally, the author would like to anticipate the scenario of Vietnam–India cultural diplomacy in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The qualitative results of this paper will not change if we assume that the sunk cost is a fraction of HT ht . Country HT ht has a higher level of ownership restriction compared to country HT ht . We also assume that there is no cost of moving to country HT ht or country HT ht from outside. Hence, country HT ht has no incentive to undercut country HT ht unless the tax rate is positive and substantially high. [Extracted from the article]

Japan has emerged as a critical strategic actor in East Asia amidst intensifying US-China structural competition since 2010. Southeast Asia/ASEAN is an important dimension of Japan's foreign policy expansion. This paper argues that Japan's foreign policy is driven by the aim of becoming an alternative source of strategic stability in Southeast Asia/ASEAN as opposed to the United States and China. This is explained by analysing Japan's foreign policy in regional balance of power and ASEAN-led multilateralism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyzes the challenge to India from China, and the dilemmas faced by India in shaping an appropriate response. A two-level theory analysis indicates that some diminishing cooperation is possible at the global level, for example over environmental issues. However, regionally, this has been overtaken structurally by increasing sharp confrontation along the Himalayas and by rising geopolitical and geo-economic competition across Asia and the Indo-Pacific. This has been overlaid in 2020–2021 by the particularly negative effect on Indian relations with China of the clashes and casualties at Galwan and the impact of Covid-19. Given this sharpening challenge, the paper finds that India's cherished axiom of full strategic autonomy now has to be tempered in its response by balancing dictates, particularly in the light of Stephen Walt's balance of threat model. India's responses pose various dilemmas in terms of effectiveness and counter-productiveness. Geopolitically, dilemmas continue to revolve for India around how far to invoke a Tibet Card and a Taiwan Card in its One China policy; and how far India can shape an immediate web (in effect around China) through strengthening security links with Vietnam, Mongolia and South Korea. Dilemmas also follow from how far India should pursue tighter security/military arrangements with more powerful China-concerned states like Australia, Japan, France, and above all, the United States. Geo-economically, India's dilemmas revolve around how to respond to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and to China's Maritime Silk Road scheme. Looking forward, an important factor will be how far India pulls away from Covid-19 disruption to the economy, and how far it will need to divert long-term economic funding away from immediate short-term military projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indonesia has been actively seeking to improve its status and has gradually developed a trinity of national–regional–world status, consisting of independent status, regional leadership status and middle power status. In the context of China–US strategic competition, Indonesia is more sensitive to the consolidation and pursuit of its status. In response, Indonesia not only inherits the traditional diplomatic policy of "rowing between two rocks" and refuses to take sides between China and the US, but also tries to lead the ASEAN countries to develop a "third way" in the Indo-Pacific region. This paper analyzes Indonesia's perception of and response to China–US strategic competition from the perspective of status politics, arguing that status politics plays a key role as the underlying logic of Indonesia's "free and active" diplomacy — maintaining close relations with both China and the United States at the material level can enhance Indonesia's economic and military status, and maintaining autonomy at the social level can gain international recognition of its status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses Xi Jinping's role in China's foreign policy from elitepolitics perspective focusing on first, the policy preferences and worldviews of political elites; second, balance of power among political elites; and third, the sectoral interests behind political elites. China's foreign policies have generally developed in line with Xi's policy preferences and worldview. The current balance of power is in Xi's favour. His administration comprises mostly local cadres, whose developmentalist policy preferences are reflected in foreign policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a panel data of 44 countries and 18 industries spanning 14 years, this paper provides a novel insight into the driving force behind the expanding volume of China's export. We match the global input–output database with micro-level data from Chinese manufacturing firms and find a positive effect of imported producer service inputs on domestic manufacturing exports. Foreign producer service inputs assist domestic firms in entering foreign markets and maintaining foreign relations, thus contributing to their exporting performance. The results confirm the specialization effect and information cost reduction effect led by imported service inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue of order is the core of international relations. Both the dimensions of history and reality should be explored in order that the relationship between Japan and the world should be acknowledged in a scientific way. This paper analyzes Japan's cognition and practice from such three aspects as the evolution of Japan's view of international orders from a historical perspective, the post-war international order and "the crisis of liberal international order" and Japan's responses to the international order under the ongoing unprecedented changes in the world. Based on principles of pragmatism, Japan strove to maintain its independence while expressing its respect with the order within the framework of the Hua-Yi Order. In face of the impact of rising Western civilization, Japan attempted to extricate itself from and overthrew the Hua-Yi Order and achieve the objective of "leaving Asia and embracing Europe," and then turned from a follower of the Western dominant order into a challenger. After being defeated in WWII, the US occupation and the democratic transformation, Japan chose to accept and integrate into the liberal international order dominated by the US and gradually formed a unique view of international order through constantly sizing up the international situation, maintaining dynamic adjustment and making efforts to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages. Faced with the changing international relations nowadays, Japan has been committed to enhancing the "comprehensive strategic activity" and repairing the liberal international order in crisis. The relationship between Japan and the international order not only reflects historical continuity but also presents newly emerging characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), substantive progress has been achieved through the joint efforts made between China and the collaborative parties, attracting great attention from the international community. However, regarding the relationship between BRI and "a community with a shared future for mankind", a concept proposed by President Xi Jinping later, the explanations are diversified in the academia. The diversity indicates that a common understanding of this relationship is yet to be reached, calling for a further discussion. This paper argues that "a community with a shared future for mankind" is China's outlook for the future world facing a period of major change never seen in a century. It is China's vision of international society but transcends the narrative of international society in the international politics studies, because in the former, each party recognizes the deep interdependence relationships (or a form of shared future) among them and between human and nature, thereby willing to negotiate and cooperate to advance the world's economic development, deal with conflict of interests and contradictions among states/civilizations, and resolve the dissonance between human and nature. Thus, a peaceful, stable, prosperous, and sustainable world can be created and preserved. In regard to BRI, it is the platform where China constructs a community with a shared future for mankind through incentive mechanisms and applies its vision of international society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the past two decades, since the political situation became stable, Cambodia has recorded a very rapid economic growth rate. In the meantime, globalization has progressed both in terms of the expansion of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. This paper applies small sample cointegration tests and error correction models to reveal the determinants of Cambodia's rapid economic growth. The cointegration test results support the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables concerned. The error-correction models show that expansion of international trade values has caused the rapid economic growth in Cambodia, regardless of the measure of international trade used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Iran has faced US sanctions in one form or another since its invasion of the US Embassy in Iran in 1979. The 2007-08 period marked the initiation of heightened international sanctions on Iran imposed by the UN Security Council in reaction to Iran's nuclear program. These sanctions were tightened in 2010, when the UN Security Council, the US Congress, and the European Union all implemented separate sets of sanctions targeting either the Iranian nuclear program or the energy and banking sectors. Under the Obama Administration the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) was signed in late 2013 and within months the United States and the EU took steps to waive specific sanctions. In 2015 the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed, which lifted nuclear-related sanctions by the UN, EU and US. The Trump Administration on May 8, 2018 announced the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and directed federal agencies to begin to take steps to re-impose the sanctions established under U.S. law that were lifted or waived in order for the United States to meet its commitments in the JCPOA. On November 5, 2018, all pre-JCPOA - U.S. sanctions on foreign firms that conduct transactions in all of Iran's core economic sectors, including energy, banking, shipping, and manufacturing, went back into effect. These include sanctions on "petroleum-related transactions" and transactions by foreign banks with Iran's Central Bank. In addition,700 Iranian and third country entities have again been designated by the United States as sanctioned entities, meaning that foreign firms that transact business with these entities could face virtual exclusion from the U.S. economy. With the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, in 2018, the US finds itself as a lone player in a world where the EU, the PRC, Russia and a group of MENA countries have no intentions to comply with these re-imposed sanctions. The purpose of this paper, consequently, is to assess the spillover effects which can be expected to result from the US re-imposition of Iran sanctions on relevant MENA countries, the PRC, Russia and Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the potential dangers of adversarial debt management in China between central and local authorities. It draws lessons from Germany's recent mishandling of the Greek debt crisis to illustrate nuances and stresses the wisdom of cooperation and mutual support in restoring balance to local Chinese finance. Inclusive economic theory provides additional insight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores whether the decisions made by a negotiator during negotiations are consistent with her preferences. By considering the entire set of offers exchanged during a negotiation, the measures of consistency developed in this paper provide a compact representation of important behavioral characteristics throughout the negotiation process. The consistency measures developed in this paper are validated with data from an experimental study in which the impact of two factors on negotiation processes is studied: the availability of analytical support and imposed vs. elicited preferences. We find that negotiators behave more consistently when preferences are assigned to them by the experimenters than when their preferences are elicited. On the other hand, an impact of analytical support is only found when preferences are elicited. These results shed light on both the design of negotiation experiments and the development of negotiation support systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Vietnam have increased significantly in recent years and are distributed unequally between provinces. This paper aims to investigate the locational determinants of FDI in 62 Vietnamese provinces and whether spatial dependence is a significant factor that both researchers and policy-makers should take into account. We report that province-specific per-capita income, secondary education enrolment, labor costs, openness to trade, and domestic investment affect FDI directly within the province itself and have indirect effects on FDI in neighboring provinces. The direct and indirect effects coexist with spill-over effects and spatial dependence between provinces. Our findings indicate that FDI in Vietnam reflects a combination of complex vertical and export platform motivations on the part of foreign investors; and an agglomeration dynamics that may perpetuate the existing regional disparities in the distribution of FDI capital between provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using panel data of a group of 39 middle-income countries over 1981-2006, this paper examines how globalization in general and inward and outward FDI in particular affects inequality. Depending on geographical region and economic system, each component of globalization affects inequality in three groups of countries in different ways: open to inward FDI tends to affect income distribution adversely in transition economies and Latin American countries, but marginally improves income distribution in countries of the reference group. In contrast, open to outward FDI is positively associated with inequality in the reference group whereas negatively associated with that of the other two groups of countries. Crucially, improvement in human capital appears to be the single most reliable way to reduce inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of Russian companies entering international markets has increased dramatically in the last 10 years. The development of innovative industries has intensified as well. Do innovations play significant role in internationalisation? Do innovators internationalize more actively? Does operating on international markets make companies more innovative? This paper studies innovations and internationalisation of companies in Russia, based on the survey of R&D-oriented companies located in the two most developed areas of Russia (St. Petersburg and Moscow). The study aims to identify the clusters of companies according to their exports and R&D expenditures, and fulfil in-depth analysis of innovations-related determinants that could explain the structure of the clusters. The main results of the study show the significant impact of innovation activities, competition and new product development on export intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In common with the governments of the United States and Canada the European Commission subjects its trade policy to a publicly conducted impact assessment process. The EC approach differs from the others in assessing economic and social impacts as well as environmental ones, in other countries as well as domestically. In principle this can contribute to stengthening international governance. In practice difficulties are encountered in integrating the studies into the decision-making process. This paper examines the experience that has been accumulated in the EC programmme, with particular reference to studies at the global level for World Trade Organisation negotiations and regionally for the Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area. These two examples offer pointers for how the impact assessment process might be adapted or extended to make a stronger contribution to international governance at both regional and global level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the development of Taiwan's security policy by exploring the decision-making of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government under the leadership of President Chen Shui-bian from 2000 to 2004. The first part of the paper reviews the development of Taiwan-China relations and theoretical developments related to this subject, as well as the major theoretical approaches adopted by scholars and strategic analysts, to explain the influence of Taiwan-China relations on Taiwan's security. Next the paper attempts to define the structure and process of the security policymaking mechanism during Chen's government to identify the major "players" in the decision-making process and their roles. The last part of the paper examines the development of the referendum issue before the 2004 presidential election in order to show how President Chen's decision-making style affected the decision to how the controversial referendum in March 2004, and how such a decision-making mechanism makes a foreign policy crisis inevitable. This paper finds that President Chen and his DPP government have a top-down decision-making style in which the president is supreme in deciding foreign policy objectives. Limited numbers of high-ranking officials are consulted or involved in the formulation of key policy objectives. This decision-making style often leads to poor communication between different decision-making levels and sometimes misunderstandings among government agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mainstream international relations (IR) scholarship does not deal with human death, because human death is not about analysis at the state or systemic level This paper develops a counter-methodology that treats human death as ontological death, referring to the silencing of a meaning system. Counter-methodology is a kind of methodology that helps one understand oneself from the perspective of those one studies. Counter-methodology assumes that identities, as well as the personhood of theoreticians and those they study, are mutually constituted. IR scholarship does not acknowledge that theoreticians intervene in the decision-making process of decision-makers, or vice versa. This paper uses the classic wisdom of Mencius, a wise man of the Chinese Warring States Period, to illustrate how a social science theory on policymaking can kill the agency of policymakers. In short, scientific explanation of a particular behavior denies the possibility that policymakers can make policy abiding by completely different (i.e., non-universal) decision-making rules (or laws of behavior) if different decision contexts are triggered. Counter-methodology allows the theoretician to reflect upon the undecidable decision contexts by bringing in various notions of death that mainstream IR scholarship closes off. The paper also introduces the "hunch" as an epistemology that sheds light on the undecidable (i.e., ontologically fluid) decision contexts. Accordingly, even realist practitioners and theoreticians, who dismiss the deaths of civilians in the enemy state or soldiers of their own nation as being insignificant, could possibly slip into the humanist track, which is unknown to them in their work but is nonetheless familiar. Counter-methodology helps them shift decision contexts and develop a perspective on ontological death. This philosophical exercise does not require realist thinkers to jettison realism. On the contrary, this paper aims to accredit the legitimacy of realism by reducing it to just one of a number of different meaning systems. This will lighten the pressure imposed by the teleological hegemony of state-centered analysis. Realists can remain realists, or they can move on. This freedom of movement enables them to recognize different decision contexts and appreciate the meaning of death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasingly, industry self-regulation, based on voluntary, market incentive environmental policy instruments, has become an essential part of global environmental governance. Among these instruments, the most important and widely accepted program is ISO 14001, an international voluntary standard for environmental management promoted by the Geneva-based International Organization for Standardization (ISO), which had over 74.000 registered facilities as of October 2004. Some international relations scholars have focused on various aspects of ISO 14001, but the role of the government in its implementation--specially in developing countries--has been relatively overlooked. This paper investigates the role of government intervention in ISO 14001 in China. China is an important case because it is the only developing country among the top ten countries in terms of the number of ISO 14001 certifications, accounting for over 70 percent of the total number of certifications worldwide in October 2004. This paper demonstrates that government intervention in ISO 14001 is one of the factors that explain the rapid increase in the number of certifications in China. The Chinese government has not only been proactively introducing and facilitating ISO 14001, but has also been directly involved in the implementation of ISO 14001 through various organizational and personal connections. Government intervention has both positive and negative aspects. The positive aspect is that it has facilitated the effective and rapid establishment of a national ISO 14001 system. The Chinese government has promoted ISO 14001 as a national environmental policy, set up an organizational and legislative infrastructure, conducted pilot projects, and encouraged local environmental protection bureaus to promote it at the local level. The negative aspect of government intervention is that it might undermine the credibility and rigor of the certification system, particularly if the government has a bad reputation regarding policy implementation domestically or internationally. Therefore, this paper concludes that government intervention in market incentive environmental protection schemes--especially in developing countries--should be discreet: the government should play a significant role in supporting the scheme but should not directly control it as a main player The main players should be the firms in the market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the price interdependence between seven international stock markets, namely Irish, UK, Portuguese, US, Brazilian, Japanese and Hong Kong, using a new testing method, based on the wavelet transform to reconstruct the data series, as suggested by Lee [11]. We find evidence of intra-European (Irish, UK and Portuguese) market co-movements with the US market also weakly influencing the Irish market. We also find co-movement between the US and Brazilian markets and similar intra-Asian co-movements (Japanese and Hong Kong). Finally, we conclude that the circle of impact is that of the European markets (Irish, UK and Portuguese) on both American markets (US and Brazilian), with these in turn impacting on the Asian markets (Japanese and Hong Kong) which in turn influence the European markets. In summary, we find evidence for intra-continental relationships and an increase in importance of international spillover effects since the mid 1990s, while the importance of historical transmissions has decreased since the beginning of this century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies the "strategic triangle" approach to the relations among Washington. Beijing, and Taipei in the post-Cold War period. The main argument is that the strategic triangle among the three has been gradually shifting from a "romantic triangle" with the United States playing the role of an "unwilling pivot," to a "marriage" between the United States and Taiwan--although whether that status can be sustained remains to be seen. The cause of this shift is mainly structural: an unwilling pivot tends to tilt toward the weaker of the two wings, particularly when the stronger wing is emerging as a threat. In making this argument, the paper draws a historical analogy with the Berlin-St. Petersburg-Vienna triangle between 1870 and 1914. In that triangle, the unwilling pivot, Germany, first adopted an impartial attitude toward Russia and dustria-Hungary. As the duel between St. Petersburg and Vienna intensified over the Balkans, however, Germany was forced to take sides and bind its fate with the Hapsburg Empire. A comparison of the two triangles--including their modes of entry., operation, and exit--reveals a strong tendency in the Washington-Beijing-Taipei triangle to evolve following the historical pattern of the pre-WWI Berlin-St. Petersburg-Henna triangle. Based on this comparison, we can conclude an unwilling pivot should find that the costs associated with pivot playing are likely too high, and entry into a partnership with one of the wings is deemed more favorable. It remains to be seen whether a formal marriage will come about between the United States and Taiwan, as it did between Germany and Austria-Hungary prior to WWI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the availability of many comprehensive electronic databases, online research has become an indispensable part of scholarly pursuit, and is also an advantageous skill for researchers in most social science fields. This paper provides an overview of many useful websites and databases of use to researchers interested in Taiwan-U.S.-China relations. Web resources catalogued here were chosen based on their comprehensiveness, user-friendliness, and pertinence to the topic. These online research sources are categorized by data source: think tanks and professional associations, government sources, journal articles and conference papers, newspapers, news agencies and collections, reference materials, and online bookstores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic relations between Taiwan and China have developed very rapidly due to strong business motivations in both societies. Taiwan's government worries that Beijing might exploit China's economic leverage by using economic sanctions to achieve political goals if asymmetric interdependence in China's favor emerges across the Strait. This paper seeks to answer two categories of questions: first, how large is China's actual and potential economic leverage over Taiwan in terms of imposing economic sanctions, and what conditions or factors would contribute to China's decision to exploit this economic leverage? Second, how vulnerable is Taiwan to any such imposition of economic sanctions, and what conditions or factors would contribute to the success or failure of these sanctions? This paper concludes that China has no economic leverage over Taiwan in terms of imposing economic sanctions and that Taiwan's vulnerability to such a scenario is almost nonexistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the emerging discourse on, and capability of the PRC in, information warfare (IW)--as well as the implications of such developments for cross-Strait and U.S.-PRC relations. Chinese discourse shows that informed PLA officers realize that IW constitutes the war of the future and plays a critical role in the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) ---a key step necessary for China's military modernization. One allure of this type of warfare is the potential for China to wage an "asymmetric war" --i.e., the use of surprise force by a weaker party against a stronger but vulnerable adversary--by applying traditional stratagems. The Chinese argue that using such traditional maxims as Sun Tzu's "overcoming the superior with the inferior" and Mao Zedong's "people's war" in modern warfare would both counter overall American strengths by focusing on certain "pockets of excellence" and present China with a credible military option for achieving its political objective of unification with Taiwan (on Beijing's terms). These strategic considerations could, however, introduce instability into the Taiwan Strait; they also challenge conventional wisdom in international relations. This paper critically evaluates the doctrinal-capability gap in China's 1W development--the double-edged nature of technology, the low connectivity of Chinese society, and Taiwan's responses--and concludes with a cautionary note on an emergent digital "mutual assured destruction" (MAD) dynamic across the Taiwan Strait. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how PRC domestic politics constrains and influences China's Taiwan policy, and thus indirectly affects cross-Strait relations. Specifically, this paper examines six factors: (1) collective leadership and factionalism, (2) succession politics, (3) bureaucratic competition, (4) nationalism, (5) legitimacy crisis and political reform, and (6) central-local and central-minority relations. The impact of these six factors is multiple. In genera4 they constitute tremendous constraints for any PRC leadership seeking to change the existing policy line. From the perspective of the policymaking process, a lack of a transparent, stable, and predictable political structure and policymaking process does not allow the regime in general, and individual leaders in particular much room to take political risks or enjoy flexibility in dealing with Taiwan. From the perspective of the structural characteristic of the whole nation, internally the PRC holds a strong feeling of insecurity in regard to national integrity-i.e., has a vulnerable legitimacy base. Externally speaking, China also suffers from deep frustration in her pursuit of international status, which in turn fuels a strong nationalism. There is thus a strong hawkish bias in the PRC's Taiwan policy that derives from domestic political factors. In determining whether or not a "Taiwan threat" exists, this paper thus argues that more attention should be paid to the opportunities and challenges presented or imposed by the structural constraints and dynamics of FRC domestic politics. The Impact of the PRC's Domestic Politics on Cross-Strait Relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares the industrial transformation processes of the LCD (liquid-crystal display) and footwear industries in South Korea and Taiwan by situating the state, local capital and transnational capital on an equal footing and examining the relative strength of these actors across time. To understand the interplay of the three actors and their shifting balance of power, we follow the commodity chain perspective and define industrial transformation as a process of moving to a higher value-added chain in the global production network. The paper argues that statist arguments that privilege the role of the state vis-à-vis transnational and local capital in the process of industrial transformation need to be modified in order to incorporate a dynamic and changing power balance among the three actors, especially in the current context of globalization and liberalization in world economic activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the influence of domestic politics on U.S.-China negotiations over Beijing's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). The argument is that, contrary to recent theories emphasizing the obstacles domestic divisions pose to international cooperation, domestic opposition to the WTO agreement in both the United States and China did not constrain the ability of American and Chinese negotiators to initiate and reach an agreement. Several conditions facilitated the conclusion of the WTO deal. First, dovish actors (i.e., those within a country whose preferences are closer to those of the foreign country) in both states held greater internal decision-making power. Second, the reformist leadership in China considered international cooperation as a way to overcome opposition to their domestic reform agenda and used their authority to circumvent domestic opposition that otherwise would have derailed the agreement. Such dramatic changes in elite preferences in favor of cooperation can in turn be explained by China's increasing integration with the world economy. Third, the agreement was designed in the United States in a way that concentrated benefits on the internationally-oriented sectors of the economy, thus minimizing opposition from other domestic forces. The paper illustrates the importance of these conditions to the conclusion of the agreement through a detailed analysis of U.S.-China negotiations between 1999 and 2000 over Chinese entry into the WTO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper centers on elaborating a sequence path of the forty years of the Sino-North Korean alliance by employing several standards that explain why alliances endure or collapse. The sequence path began when China's threat perceptions began changing in the early 1970s. The next stage witnessed significant decline in China's credibility as an alliance partner. As a result, the third stage showed North Korea's increasing secondary alliance dilemma that was further stimulated by the collapse of the communist world and the end of the Cold War. As a solution, North Korea bandwagoned with the United States. The final picture of this ongoing sequence path has appeared with North Korea's maneuvering between Washington and Beijing, as well as China's attempts to preserve its traditional sphere of influence against encroachment by the United States. This paper concludes that the alliance is being transformed from an ideological military alliance to a new triangular security relationship between North Korea, China, and the United States. In accordance, North Korea is becoming increasingly autonomous in its alliance with China. In so doing, Pyongyang is attempting to play one superpower off against the other, much as it succeeded in doing with the former Soviet Union and China. China, in turn, is compelled to defend its traditional sphere of geopolitical influence. North Korea will be involved in the coming conflict between China and the United States during the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses two topics. First, how should we evaluate the impact of international linkages on China's environmental policies? Second, how can international linkages best influence China's environmental policies? Regarding the first, this paper begins by reflecting on the contending interpretations of the effectiveness of the impact of international linkages on China's environmental policies. The paper then raises the concept of "soft epistemic learning" and suggests that the concept can best characterize this impact. Regarding the second topic, this paper has two arguments. First, this paper argues that international linkages can better influence China's domestic rather than international environmental policies. The second argument is that international linkages can better influence the results of environmental protection and policy implementation in China at the subnational rather than national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article addresses the complex landscape of Japan's diplomatic engagement in Southeast Asia, spanning from the late 1990s to the present day, and explores the transformative role that Japan has played in post-conflict peacebuilding and regional security. Japan has reinforced diplomatic relations with conflict-affected Southeast Asian countries in the post-Cold War era, contributing to security cooperation in the region under the recent Japan's diplomatic direction of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes recent trends in Chinese international behavior through the use of the two-good theory of foreign policy. This general theory posits that states pursue two desired goals--change and maintenance, which refer to their abilities to alter or to protect specific aspects of the status quo. The extent to which countries pursue change and maintenance is a function of state preferences and of the relative capabilities of the country. The theory has been tested in other circumstances and has been shown to explain international behavior well. In this paper we introduce our theory briefly and then apply it to three components of Chinese foreign policy--the initiation of international conflict, the formation of alliances, and the donation of foreign aid. We find that the incidence of the Chinese initiation of international conflict is strongly affected by the growth of its economy. Nonetheless, our analysis indicates that, generally, China is significantly less active in seeking to bring about change in the international system than is sometimes alleged. Furthermore, we argue that China has moderated its foreign policy in response to Western diplomatic overtures. We suggest that continued attempts to engage China diplomatically may prove fruitful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The PRC-Taiwan diplomatic rivalry has not spared the South Pacific islands, a region only rarely mentioned within a Western strategy for Asia. This paper argues that the PRC and Taiwan have, since the 1970s, become players in their own right in Oceania, raising new variables in an uneventful area. Beijing and Taipei have made energetic efforts out of all proportion to draw such tiny islands to either camp. The elusive reasons are dissected herein. Wary of Western hegemony, the region's leaders have turned to Asia for offers of trade and aid, and have played the PRC and Taiwan against each other. This paper seeks to: explain Beijing's and Taipei's goals in lands that yield seemingly negligible gains; show how such activism has impacted Oceania; determine the region's perceptions and reactions; portray the relative position of all players; and point out future problems. The study is divided into contentious points crystallized over time: Cold War decolonization and the Chinese/Taiwanese arrival; aid, trade, and investment; fishing disputes; the role of China's navy; the region's nuclear-free zone; UN and South Pacific Forum dialogues; and the region's social economic, environmental ethnic, and security concerns. The study concludes that the supremacy of Chinese and Taiwanese global commercial considerations aims to demand a specific institutional-geopolitical alignment in Oceania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contends that Samuel Huntington's views about the "clash of civilizations" have fundamental flaws. First, his understanding of civilizations and their historical evolution is faulty and second, in terms of future trends, he has mistakenly equated one pseudo-territorial entity (i.e., ''civilizations'') with another (i.e., emerging regions, such as the European Union [EU]. the Association of Southeast Asian Nations [ASEAN], and Mercado Comun del Sur ([Mercosur]). This paper argues that although civilizations are a valuable abstraction fur understanding history, they are not, in themselves, the fundamental motors of human interaction and development. Furthermore civilizations are not the billiard balls implied by Huntington: they intermingle, interpenetrate, and evolve by a process of internal change and external influences. These issues are explored in the papers two primary sections. The first of these sections reassesses the meaning of "civilization" and "Western civilization" by looking at what is meant by "Europe," the core cultural artefact in what is conceived as the "West." The discussion demonstrates that the relatively unusual conditions underlying the emergence of this "civilization" have meant that Huntington's view of relations between civilizations is misconceived. The second section looks to the future and shows how the structures of the emerging world system are crucially situated in the political economy of the present and the recent past. It suggests that while the multicultural nature of the emerging world order may result in the emergence of distinctive "capitalisms," there is no reason to assume, however, that international interactions will occur at the intercivilizational level. If anything, the activities of transnational corporations (TNCs) will ensure an ongoing commercial and cultural exchange and interpenetration between distant parts of the world. To be sure, there will be future political and economic conflicts between states and other entities, hut these will not be clothes between civilizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the "complex interdependence" model to explain Taiwan's diplomatic moves in the Asia-Pacific. According to Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye, complex interdependence includes three characteristics: multiple channels of contact, an absence of hierarchy among issues, and the minor role of military force. Although the minor role of military force is nor entirely relevant in the Asia-Pacific, the other two variables have become important strategies for Taiwan in expanding the island's foreign relations. This paper argues that the main reason for Taiwan's survival despite being under the shadow of the PRC threat is because the island's foreign relations, especially in the post-Cold War era, are in harmony with the development of complex interdependence in the Asia-Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) policies toward nonproliferation regimes, focusing on the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), and the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). The author finds that China holds a positive attitude toward the NPT and the CTBT evidenced by China's public discourse about these treaties and its eventual signing of them. In contrast, China feels moderately negative about the MTCR. This paper also confirms that China's cooperation in nonproliferation has been based on the broader context of its relations with the United States. Finally, this paper suggests that frequent contact between the United States and China will be useful for communicating the importance of nonproliferation in bilateral relations. Chinese bureaucrats at all levels need to understand that they should be held accountable for nonproliferation behavior, and that reckless exports can threaten Chinese, U.S., and world security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper first analyzes Taiwan-mainland China relations in the context of PRC President Jiang Zemin's eight-point proposal on the unification issue and ROC President Lee Teng-hui's six-point response in early 1995. Next, the paper discusses Lee's visit to the United States in June 1995 and the PRC's violent reaction to the visit, which resulted in the PRC's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, its public denunciation of Lee, and the suspension of the talks between the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF-ROC) and the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS-PRC). Since Lee's landslide presidential election victory in Taiwan, he has repeatedly called on the PRC to resume talks, but the PRC has refused to respond positively to the calls, and Taiwan-mainland China relations remain uncertain and volatile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of the "strategic triangle" has been conventionally applied to the relationship among the United States, the Soviet Union, and the People's Republic of China (PRC). In actuality, there has also existed a mini-triangle among Washington, Taipei, and Beijing. The first part of this paper explores the various positions in a strategic triangle, ranks these roles in terms of desirability, differentiates between endogenous and exogenous factors, and identifies three sets of derivative relations based on exogenous factors. The paper then reviews the historical patterns of interactions within the great strategic triangle and the mini-triangle, as well as explores the impact of the former on the latter. The third part concentrates on the post-Tiananmen permutations of the dual triangles, evaluates the PRC's position after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and explains U.S. behavior during the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait mini-crisis in view of the structure of the mini-triangle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the end of the Cold War, some students of international politics have believed that "history has ended," while others have stated that the more things change, the more they stay the same. These two schools of thought-roughly, liberalism and realism-are the two main conceptual frameworks by which East Asian security is analyzed. This paper first examines East Asian security from these two perspectives. It then analyzes the security stances of the PRC and the United States, the two major powers in East Asia, arguing that the PRC's reading of East Asian international politics is leaning toward a realist interpretation, while the United States is leaning toward a somewhat liberal one. Since Taiwan is a hot point in Sino-American relations, this paper furl her probes Taiwan's role in East Asian security. It finds that Taiwan's drive for international recognition, while largely propelled by its internal democratization process, will continue to drive a wedge into Sino-American relations, which will have tremendous repercussions in the East Asian security situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hong Kong has undergone significant changes in the last two decades, and their impacts have been visible on the economic and political aspects of life. As the territory became prosperous, political system reforms had to be introduced in order to keep pace with the changes in society. At the same time, it was necessary to introduce changes in the public administration system. Hong Kong's scheduled reversal of sovereignty to China has added to the scenario's complexity, as the transformation from a British colony to a Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China entails delicate balance in planning reforms. This paper considers the administrative reform attempts made in Hong Kong. Beginning with the 1989 public sector reform document, there have been a number of noticeable changes in public administration process and values. An examination of previous and recent attempts indicates that changes have been largely influenced by political considerations and the tendency to emulate practices from elsewhere, while the genuine needs of society may have been neglected. There have been corresponding changes in the objectives, strategies, and style adopted by the government and public administrators. This paper will try to note the nature of the recent changes within Hong Kong's public administration, changes which will naturally have implications on the relationship of Hong Kong with its neighbors, including the Republic of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I have introduced two simple extensive-form games and conducted the Poisson regression analysis to investigate the important factors that might influence Sino-South Korean relations. One of the most interesting questions examined in the paper is the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) behavior toward South Korea in case of any change in South Korea-Taiwan relations. The findings of the analysis have indicated that any incremental change in South Korea-Taiwan relations will not influence the PRC's behavior toward South Korea as long as South Korea maintains friendly relations with the PRC. This study suggests that South Korea should maintain the highest possible unofficial relations with Taiwan as long as it does not violate the "one China" principle. Strategically speaking, South Korean policies toward China or Taiwan should not be based on Beijing's verbal expressions or threats but on how Beijing has actually responded to similar situations. That is, it is most important for South Korea to investigate where the PRC actually stands or how the PRC has responded to other nations which have attempted to improve relations with Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]