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Climate suitability analysis allows to identify regions where climate is likely to support the establishment of a pest. This analysis is typically based on pest ecophysiology and/or distribution according to the different methodology/models available. In the context of the related EFSA pest risk assessment, a climate suitability analysis was performed for Resseliella citrifrugis. The current publication includes: (i) a report on the extensive literature search conducted to retrieve data and information on the pest observed distribution and ecophysiology parameters, and on the methodology of the climate suitability analysis, (ii) an excel file including metadata on the literature analysed, (iii) an excel file including the observed distribution of the pest, (iv) maps related to the climate suitability analysis of Resseliella citrifrugis, (v) a Geopackage file including the layers related to the climate suitability analysis., EU; en; PDF; plants@efsa.europa.eu

Climate suitability analysis allows to identify regions where climate is likely to support the establishment of a pest. This analysis is typically based on pest ecophysiology and/or distribution according to the different methodology/models available. In the context of the related EFSA pest risk assessment, a climate suitability analysis was performed for Citripestis sagittiferella. The current publication includes: (i) a report on the extensive literature search conducted to retrieve data and information on the pest observed distribution and ecophysiology parameters, and on the methodology of the climate suitability analysis, (ii) an excel file including metadata on the literature analysed, (iii) an excel file including the observed distribution of the pest, (iv) a map of the observed distribution of Citripestis sagittiferella in JPEG format, (v) a Geopackage file including the layers related to the pest distribution., EU; en; PDF; plants@efsa.europa.eu

Climate suitability analysis allows to identify regions where climate is likely to support the establishment of a pest. This analysis is typically based on pest ecophysiology and/or distribution according to the different methodology/models available. In the context of the related EFSA pest risk assessment, a climate suitability analysis was performed for Xanthomonas citri pv. viticola. The current publication includes: (i) a report on the extensive literature search conducted to retrieve data and information on the pest observed distribution and ecophysiology parameters, and on the methodology of the climate suitability analysis, (ii) an excel file including metadata on the literature analysed, (iii) an excel file including the observed distribution of the pest, (iv) maps related to the climate suitability analysis of Xanthomonas citri pv. viticola in JPEG format, (v) a Geopackage file including the layers related to Köppen-Geiger climate types relevant for the pest and pest distribution., EU; en; PDF; plants@efsa.europa.eu

Climate suitability analysis allows to identify regions where climate is likely to support the establishment of a pest. This analysis is typically based on pest ecophysiology and/or distribution according to the different methodology/models available. In the context of the related EFSA pest risk assessment, a climate suitability analysis was performed for Amyelois transitella. The current publication includes: (i) a report on the extensive literature search conducted to retrieve data and information on the pest observed distribution and ecophysiology parameters, (ii) a report on the methodology of the climate suitability analysis, (iii) an excel file including metadata on the literature analysed, (iv) an excel file including the observed distribution of the pest, (v) the CLIMEX configuration file for Amyelois transitella (.cpx), (vi) maps related to the climate suitability analysis of A. transitella in JPEG format, (v) a Geopackage file including the layers related to CLIMEX results, Köppen-Geiger climate types relevant for the pest, pest distribution, EU; en; pdf; plants@efsa.europa.eu

Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a significant threat affecting the agricultural and horticultural industries worldwide. Once restricted to Americas, severe European outbreaks have been discovered, the most infamously known in Apulia (Italy), where the bacterium is still spreading killing millions of olive trees. It is a great concern due to the high levels of plant trade, but in order to prevent and control its emergence in novel locations, it is vital to understand drivers of entry, establishment, and spatiotemporal spread, which are not fully understood. Great Britain is currently Xylella-free, but due to the extensive plant trade network, is considered potentially at risk. Although suitability distribution models (SDMs) suggest unfavourable climatic conditions for Xf emergence there, this approach neglects crucial epidemiological dynamics. Hence, to improve Xf pest risk assessment in Britain, we adapted a spatially explicit mechanistic spread model originally designed to describe the Apulian outbreak, incorporating British specific eco-epidemiological factors. We simulated deterministic short-distance and stochastic long-distance dispersal at country-level, accounting for British environmental gradients and taking a “worst-case scenario” approach to define susceptible host population. Infection was randomly seeded and different scenarios were simulated to evaluate different parameter values, including different dispersal processes, as estimation was uncertain due to lack of epidemiological data. Results showed that temperature was a limiting factor to disease transmission, and host distribution significantly affected local prevalence and extent of spread, suggesting that investigation of spatial dynamics is crucial to reveal areas at risk in case of Xf introduction in new locations. Despite the high degree of parameter uncertainty, our results displayed consistent qualitative patterns, highlighting differences with SDMs and other forms of risk assessment. The model is flexible to be updated whether new data become available, and eventually adapted to other areas, with the ultimate aim of providing guidance to develop preparedness measures., GB; PDF; flaocc@ceh.ac.uk

Methodology of quantitative pest risk assessment developed by 2006 may be applied to CAPRA programme. The way of using this methodology when conducting PRA with CAPRA programme is provided in the paper including assessment of probability of entry of analysed pest to the PRA area, probability of its establishment there and potential economic impact.

The report is a supporting document of the pest risk assessment of Eotetranychus lewisi for the EU territory. This Annex A to the pest risk assessment of E. lewisi for the EU territory presents the preparatory work that was performed following the guiding principles and the stochastic model in a quantitative approach in the context of the EFSA risk assessment framework currently under development for Plant Health. Moreover, this pest risk assessment is performed in accordance to the principles described in the EFSA PROMETHEUS (PROmoting METHods for Evidence Use in Scientific assessments) project where recommendations are provided both for the systematic and reasoned search of the evidence required by the risk assessors and the use of such evidence in the risk assessment. PROMETHEUS is an organisational development project aiming to further improve the methods for "evidence use" (collecting, appraising and integrating data and evidence) in EFSA's scientific assessments and to increase their consistency., contact email: teamplh@efsa.europa.eu

The risk of introducing weeds to new areas through grain (cereals, oilseeds and pulses) intended for processing or consumption is typically considered less than that from seed or plants for planting. However, within the range of end uses for grain, weed risk varies significantly and should not be ignored. In this paper, we discuss pathway risk analysis as a framework to examine the association of weed seeds with grain commodities throughout the production process from field to final end use, and present inspection sampling data for grain crops commonly imported to Canada. In the field, weed seed contamination of grain crops is affected by factors such as country of origin, climate, biogeography and production and harvesting practices. As it moves toward export, grain is typically cleaned at a series of elevators and the effectiveness and degree of cleaning are influenced by grain size, shape and density as well as by grade requirements. In cases where different grain lots are blended, uncertainty may be introduced with respect to the species and numbers of weed seed contaminants. During transport and storage, accidental spills and cross-contamination among conveyances may occur. At the point of import to Canada, inspection sampling data show that grain shipments contain a variety of contaminants including seeds of regulated weeds and species that represent new introductions. However, grain cleaning and processing methods tailored to end use at destination also affect the presence and viability of weed seeds. For example, grains that are milled or crushed for human use present a lower risk of introducing weed seeds to new environments than grains that undergo minimal or no processing for livestock feed, or screenings that are produced as a by-product of grain cleaning. Pathway risk analysis allows each of these stages to be evaluated in order to characterize the overall risk of introducing weeds with particular commodities, and guide regulatory decisions about trade and plant health.

The Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food Safety (VKM) considers that there is an overall probability that the pathogen “Candidatus Phytoplaasma mali” (AP) might spread in Norway and cause extensive economic damage to apple producers and nurseries. Stricter measures are necessary to avoid the disease to spread to districts which are not known to be contaminated, VKM concludes in a pest risk assessment commissioned by The Norwegian Food Safety Authority. The most serious effects of AP infection are secondary shoots forming “witches’ brooms” on apple trees, and crops consisting of few, small, tasteless and non-marketable fruits. Spreading AP may rapidly spread over large distances by use of infected propagation material, and locally also by insect vectors and natural root bridges. In the 2010 season there was a significant increase in the number of AP detections, mostly in the fruit-producing districts in south-western Norway. The number of farms with infected trees and the extent of infection at each farm were significantly higher than before. The disease was registered for the first time in Norway in 1996, but it may have been introduced in the 1970s. The climatic conditions are considered to be suitable for AP, and establishment is not restrained by any competitors or natural enemies. Control measures VKM states that the present control measures have not been sufficient to eradicate the disease. In the infected areas it will probably be possible to keep AP at a low level, if the current control measures are combined with permanent survey programs, testing of trees, and extensive use of disease-free planting material. These measures, however, would be at a high cost for the producers as well as the public sector., NO; en; vkm@vkm.no

VKM’s Panel on Plant Health gives the following main conclusions of the risk assessment: 1) The overall probability of entry is considered as very likely, with a low level of uncertainty. Plants for planting, scions, budwood and rootstocks are the main pathways for AP. Insect vectors are only of concern regarding local spread of AP. 2) The overall probability of establishment is considered as very likely, with a low level of uncertainty. Apple and some other species of Malus are the main hosts of the pest, and the number of host plant species is low. However, host plants are widespread and abundant in the PRA area. The vector Cacopsylla melanoneura occurs in parts of the PRA area. The climatic conditions are considered as suitable for AP because there have already been restricted outbreaks in Norway. Establishment is not restrained by competitors or natural enemies. Existing cultural or management practices are ineffective to prevent establishment. 3) AP may easily be spread by plants for planting, rootstocks, scions, budwood, and psyllid vectors. Plant materials are easily and rapidly spread within the whole PRA-area, and consequently represent a considerable risk for spread of the disease. Psyllid vectors and root bridges may be important for rapid local spread; 4) There is a high probability that AP may cause extensive economic damage in fruit orchards in the country. Apple is commonly grown in private gardens all over the southern part of Norway. In the central and northern part of Norway apple growing is restricted because of lower average temperatures. Commercial growing on a large scale is mainly restricted to some areas in the counties of Rogaland, Hordaland, Sogn og Fjordane, and Møre og Romsdal in Western Norway, and the counties of Buskerud, Telemark and Hedmark in Eastern Norway. Consequently these areas will be at most risk economically for AP to establish in Norway., NO; en; vkm@vkm.no