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Antarctica is a crucial regulator of the world's climate, and as environmental security permeates global security, using Antarctic science to better understand climate is becoming increasingly pressing. Although the Australian Government has recognised that climate change poses 'a current and existential national security' threat and has acknowledged Antarctica's importance regarding the earth's global climate system, the focus of Australia's intelligence community pertaining to Antarctica currently remains restricted to upholding the military-security and diplomatic goals of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). This current focus aims to hedge against the possibility of conflict on, or over, the frozen continent via 'working the ATS', however, this paper argues that Antarctic climate science holds a greater capacity to deliver security outcomes for Australia. Antarctic climate science offers opportunities regarding intelligence for Antarctica, that is, securing Australia's Antarctic interests, as well as regarding intelligence from Antarctica; by enhancing natural disaster preparedness, bolstering broader strategic planning, as well as furthering diplomacy and the legitimisation of Australia's leadership on, and over, the frozen continent. It is recommended that the Commonwealth Government establish a climate intelligence working group to ensure the utility of climate science to security and intelligence is realised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which focuses on the use of Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) data in the investigation of temperature trends in Antarctica. The seasonal temperature trends are examined at 100 hectopascals and 500 hectopascals pressure levels. Variations in the temperature at spatial and temporal domains are highlighted.

Regional climate models (RCMs) and reanalysis datasets provide valuable information for assessing the vulnerability of ice shelves to collapse over Antarctica, which is important for future global sea level rise estimates. Within this context, this paper examines variability in snowfall, near-surface air temperature and melt across products from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) and Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) RCMs, as well as the ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Seasonal and trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) is applied to split the monthly time series at each model grid cell into trend, seasonal and residual components. Significant systematic differences between outputs are shown for all variables in the mean and in the seasonal and residual standard deviations, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results imply that differences in the atmospheric dynamics, parametrisation, tuning and surface schemes between models together contribute more significantly to large-scale variability than differences in the driving data, resolution, domain specification, ice sheet mask, digital elevation model and boundary conditions. Despite significant systematic differences, high temporal correlations are found for snowfall and near-surface air temperature across all products at fine spatial scales. For melt, only moderate correlation exists at fine spatial scales between different RCMs and low correlation between RCM and reanalysis outputs. Root mean square deviations (RMSDs) between all outputs in the monthly time series for each variable are shown to be significant at fine spatial scales relative to the magnitude of annual deviations. Correcting for systematic differences results in significant reductions in RMSDs, suggesting the importance of observations and further development of bias-correction techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An emergent polar futurism characterizes the contemporary built space of climate science in Antarctica, inaugurated in large part by the British Antarctic Survey's cutting-edge Halley VI research base. This article analyzes the spatial form, design, and use of Halley VI as well as the rhetoric surrounding it, seeing in Halley VI an expression of a particular "socio-technical imaginary" that implicitly gestures toward a tendential integration of climate science and global logistics. Alongside claims toward fostering a comfortable, communal life among its inhabitants, the imaginary embedded in Halley VI is one where climate research is subsumed within capital's broader aims to facilitate stable logistical movements and infrastructural durability amid chaotic, volatile conditions, a subsumption that bears in particular on the knowledge workers who inhabit the base. What a reading of the base's layout, interior, and lived-in uses exposes, the paper claims, is an implicit portending of a growing proletarianization of sensual experience and knowledge work among residents at the base, increasingly displaced as they are from the subjective core of the base's operations. This reading both extends and complicates recent calls in polar geographies to attend to speculative figurations of Antarctic futures, channeling Halley VI's polar futurism through structural determinants drawn out of literatures critically dealing with design, the history of systems sciences, and theorizations of ongoing restructurings of contemporary labor. The article suggests then that imaginaries of Anthropocenic futures such as those embedded in Halley VI's polar futurism might serve at once as speculative-projective tools and implicit sites for carrying out critiques of tensions and pernicious trends that underlie such Anthropocenic speculation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HydroGFD3 (Hydrological Global Forcing Data) is a data set of bias-adjusted reanalysis data for daily precipitation and minimum, mean, and maximum temperature. It is mainly intended for large-scale hydrological modelling but is also suitable for other impact modelling. The data set has an almost global land area coverage, excluding the Antarctic continent and small islands, at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 ∘ , i.e. about 25 km. It is available for the complete ERA5 reanalysis time period, currently 1979 until 5 d ago. This period will be extended back to 1950 once the back catalogue of ERA5 is available. The historical period is adjusted using global gridded observational data sets, and to acquire real-time data, a collection of several reference data sets is used. Consistency in time is attempted by relying on a background climatology and only making use of anomalies from the different data sets. Precipitation is adjusted for mean bias as well as the number of wet days in a month. The latter is relying on a calibrated statistical method with input only of the monthly precipitation anomaly such that no additional input data about the number of wet days are necessary. The daily mean temperature is adjusted toward the monthly mean of the observations and applied to 1 h time steps of the ERA5 reanalysis. Daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature are then calculated. The performance of the HydroGFD3 data set is on par with other similar products, although there are significant differences in different parts of the globe, especially where observations are uncertain. Further, HydroGFD3 tends to have higher precipitation extremes, partly due to its higher spatial resolution. In this paper, we present the methodology, evaluation results, and how to access the data set at 10.5281/zenodo.3871707. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extra‐tropical cyclones are a relevant feature in the climate at middle and high latitudes. Despite their importance, most studies typically focus only on cyclones identified at a single atmospheric level and on events close to the surface. This paper provides a new perspective on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) cyclone events based on the multilevel cyclone tracking algorithm STACKER. The algorithm, using relative vorticity, detects the raw tracks at single levels and objectively combines them to provide the 3D events and their evolutionary timeline. As a result, a 3D cyclone climatology, based on ECMWF Reanalysis ERA‐I data from 12 pressure levels in the troposphere and lowermost stratosphere is presented. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first analysis carried out throughout the troposphere and the lowermost extratropical/subpolar stratosphere in order to give a comprehensive picture of the cyclone events as physical entities throughout their lifetime. Cyclone properties analysed are track densities, translational velocity, vorticity and lifetimes. For the subtropical and extra‐tropical SH, results support many previous ideas about cyclone characteristics, but new insights are also obtained. A total of 58,231 multilevel cyclone events lasting at least 2 days were detected, with vertical structures spanning two or more levels. This means an average of 303 cyclone events of all types per month, between 2001 and 2017, disregarding seasonality. Results show that cyclones are most frequently detected at the lowest levels of 925 and 700 hPa. By considering that cyclonic systems can be grouped into families according to their vertical extent, results per month on average show that shallow systems are the most frequent events with approximately 248 systems detected, followed by 43 intermediary and 11 deep events. Shallow and deep systems have a large percentage of events with genesis at 925 and 700 hPa. Density statistics show that shallow events are present at all latitude ranges mostly poleward of 30°S with high‐ and medium‐intensities, while intermediate ones are mostly restricted to mid‐latitudes and deep events are mostly confined to sub‐polar and polar latitudes. Cyclones over Antarctica seem to be mostly intermediary and deep cyclones, with longer lifetimes and lower velocities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the potential benefit of limiting the global warming to 1.5°C above the preindustrial level on the high‐latitude climate of the Southern Hemisphere compared to 2.0°C and above. A set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate model experiments is used in order to determine the mean projected changes in surface air temperature, sea level pressure, surface winds and sea ice distribution over and around Antarctica. Alongside, changes in selected variables related to extremes (such as the annual number of extremely cold mornings and extremely cold days) are also quantified as a function of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) considered reaching the given warming threshold. Physical mechanisms for the projected variations in sea ice are proposed, including surface air temperature, changes in low‐level air temperature advection and meridional winds. Results show that there would be significant differences in the atmospheric and sea ice variable changes depending on the warming threshold and RCP considered, and that indeed keeping the global warming under 1.5°C could have a noticeable impact particularly on the distribution of sea ice over the Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier valleys across the Transantarctic Mountains are not properly taken into account in climate models, because of their coarse resolution. Nonetheless, glacier valleys control katabatic winds in this region, and the latter are thought to affect the climate of the Ross Sea sector, frsater formation to snow mass balance. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the subgrid-scale orography in the Transantarctic Mountains using a 20-km atmospheric regional model. A classical orographic roughness length parametrization is modified to produce either smooth or rough valleys. A one-year simulation shows that katabatic winds in the Transantarctic Mountains are strongly improved using smooth valleys rather than rough valleys. Pressure and temperature fields are affected by the representation of the orographic roughness, specifically in the Transantarctic Mountains and over the Ross Ice Shelf. A smooth representation of escarpment regions shows better agreement with automatic weather station observations than a rough representation. This work stresses the need to improve the representation of subgrid-scale orography to simulate realistic katabatic flows. This paper also provides a way of improving surface winds in an atmospheric model without increasing its resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been shown that a proxy determination of the magnetospheric open-closed magnetic field line boundary (OCB) location can be made by examining the ultra-low-frequency (ULF) wave power in magnetometer data, with particular interest in the Pc5 ULF waves with periods of 3-10 min. In this study, we present a climatology of such Pc5 ULF waves using groundbased magnetometer data from the South Pole Station (SPA), McMurdo (MCM) station, and the Automatic Geophysical Observatories (AGOs) located across the Antarctic continent, to infer OCB behavior and variability during geomagnetically quiet times (i.e., Ap < 30 nT). For each season [i.e., austral fall (20 February 2017-20 April 2017), austral winter (20 May 2017-20 July 2017), austral spring (20 August 2017-20 October 2017), and austral summer (20 November 2017-20 January 2018)], north-south (i.e., H-component) magnetic field line residual power-spectral density (PSD) measurements taken during geomagnetically quiet periods within a 60-day window centered at the austral solstice/equinox are averaged in 10-min temporal bins to form the climatology at each station. These residual PSDs thus enable the analysis of Pc5 activity (and lower period "long-band" oscillations) and, thus, OCB location/variability as a function of season and magnetic latitude. The dawn and dusk transitions across the OCB are analyzed, with a discussion of dawn and dusk variability during nominally quiet geomagnetic periods. In addition, latitudinal dependencies of the OCB and peak Pc5 periods at each station are discussed, along with the empirical Tsyganenko model comparisons to our site measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of documentary sources has proven useful to identify extreme climatic events and their variability during the pre-instrumental period. The aim of this paper is to describe iceberg sightings in the Western South Atlantic during the second half of the 18th century, as recorded from Spanish logbooks. A total of five sightings have been found, two corresponding to isolated bergs and three to outbreaks. The relevance of these results is twofold: they are the first documented iceberg sightings to date and, above all, they correspond to very unusual episodes, characterized by a high number of high-sized bergs and by the relatively low latitude of their location. It is suggested that they could be associated to cold episodes in Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the primary mechanism for transporting water vapor from low latitudes to polar regions, playing a significant role as drivers of extreme weather, such as heavy precipitation and heat waves in both the Arctic and Antarctica. With the rapidly growing interest in polar ARs during the past decade, it is imperative to establish an objective framework to quantify the strength and impact of these ARs for both scientific research and practical application. The AR scale introduced by Ralph et al. (2019) ranks ARs based on the duration of AR conditions and the intensity. However, the thresholds of integrated water vapor transport (IVT) used to rank ARs are selected based on the IVT climatology at middle latitudes. These thresholds are insufficient for polar regions due to the substantially lower temperature and moisture content. In this study, we analyze the IVT climatology in polar regions, focusing on the coasts of Antarctica and Greenland. Then we introduce an extended version of the AR scale tuned to polar regions by adding lower IVT thresholds of 100, 150, and 200 kg m-1 s-1 to the standard AR scale, which starts at 250 kg m-1 s-1. The polar AR scale is utilized to examine AR frequency, seasonality, trends, and associated precipitation and surface melt over the Antarctic and Greenland coasts. The polar AR scale better characterizes the strength and impacts of ARs in the Antarctic and Arctic regions, and has the potential to enhance communications across observation, research, and forecasts for polar regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deep polar ice cores provide reference records commonly employed in global correlation of past climate events. However, temporal divergences reaching up to several thousand years (ka) exist between ice cores over the last climatic cycle. In this context, we are hereby introducing the Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012 (AICC2012), a new and coherent timescale developed for four Antarctic ice cores, namely Vostok, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) and Talos Dome (TALDICE), alongside the Greenlandic NGRIP record. The AICC2012 timescale has been constructed using the Bayesian tool Datice (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) that combines glaciological inputs and data constraints, including a wide range of relative and absolute gas and ice stratigraphic markers. We focus here on the last 120 ka, whereas the companion paper by Bazin et al. (2013) focuses on the interval 120-800 ka. Compared to previous timescales, AICC2012 presents an improved timing for the last glacial inception, respecting the glaciological constraints of all analyzed records. Moreover, with the addition of numerous new stratigraphic markers and improved calculation of the lock-in depth (LID) based on d15N data employed as the Datice background scenario, the AICC2012 presents a slightly improved timing for the bipolar sequence of events over Marine Isotope Stage 3 associated with the seesaw mechanism, with maximum differences of about 600 yr with respect to the previous Datice-derived chronology of Lemieux-Dudon et al. (2010), hereafter denoted LD2010. Our improved scenario confirms the regional differences for the millennial scale variability over the last glacial period: while the EDC isotopic record (events of triangular shape) displays peaks roughly at the same time as the NGRIP abrupt isotopic increases, the EDML isotopic record (events characterized by broader peaks or even extended periods of high isotope values) reached the isotopic maximum several centuries before. It is expected that the future contribution of both other long ice core records and other types of chronological constraints to the Datice tool will lead to further refinements in the ice core chronologies beyond the AICC2012 chronology. For the time being however, we recommend that AICC2012 be used as the preferred chronology for the Vostok, EDC, EDML and TALDICE ice core records, both over the last glacial cycle (this study), and beyond (following Bazin et al., 2013). The ages for NGRIP in AICC2012 are virtually identical to those of GICC05 for the last 60.2 ka, whereas the ages beyond are independent of those in GICC05modelext (as in the construction of AICC2012, the GICC05modelext was included only via the background scenarios and not as age markers). As such, where issues of phasing between Antarctic records included in AICC2012 and NGRIP are involved, the NGRIP ages in AICC2012 should therefore be taken to avoid introducing false offsets. However for issues involving only Greenland ice cores, there is not yet a strong basis to recommend superseding GICC05modelext as the recommended age scale for Greenland ice cores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eighteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) are compared to reference data for the present, the Mid- Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) for the Antarctic region. The climatology produced by a regional climate model is taken as a reference climate for the present. GCM results for the past are compared to ice-core data. The goal of this study is to find the best GCM that can be used to drive an ice sheet model that simulates the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Because temperature and precipitation are the most important climate variables when modelling the evolution of an ice sheet, these two variables are considered in this paper. This is done by ranking the models according to how well their output corresponds with the references. In general, present-day temperature is simulated well, but precipitation is overestimated compared to the reference data. Another finding is that model biases play an important role in simulating the past, as they are often larger than the change in temperature or precipitation between the past and the present. Considering the results for the present-day as well as for the MH and the LGM, the best performing models are HadCM3 and MIROC 3.2.2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper suggests that the Polar Regions are excellent places for thinking about historical interactions between climate change, science, and politics from the beginning of the Cold War up to the present. Since the second half of the 1940s, science has played a central role in contesting claims to political authority in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Research conducted in the Polar Regions has made a major contribution to the science of climate change on a global scale, and research agendas have been closely connected in the two regions. Viewed from a comparative perspective, however, the historical experiences of global warming in the Arctic and Antarctica have been quite different. Climate research has suggested that warming is generally happening faster over much of the Arctic than the Antarctic. In addition, the recent histories of the two regions show that climate change in the Arctic is destabilizing politics there, whereas in Antarctica climate change is helping to reinforce the existing political structures framed by the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). A comparative approach to the history of climate change in the Polar Regions helps to demonstrate that science, politics, and environmental change have each played important roles without making any single factor deterministic. WIREs Clim Change 2012, 3:145-159. doi: 10.1002/wcc.161 For further resources related to this article, please visit the . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The GLACIOCLIM-SAMBA (GS) Antarctic accumulation monitoring network, which extends from the coast of Adelie Land to the Antarctic plateau, has been surveyed annually since 2004. The network includes a 156-km stake-line from the coast inland, along which accumulation shows high spatial and interannual variability with a mean value of 362 mm water equivalent a. In this paper, this accumulation is compared with older accumulation reports from between 1971 and 1991. The mean and annual standard deviation and the km-scale spatial pattern of accumulation were seen to be very similar in the older and more recent data. The data did not reveal any significant accumulation trend over the last 40 years. The ECMWF analysis-based forecasts (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim), a stretched-grid global general circulation model (LMDZ4) and three regional circulation models (PMM5, MAR and RACMO2), all with high resolution over Antarctica (27-125 km), were tested against the GS reports. They qualitatively reproduced the meso-scale spatial pattern of the annual-mean accumulation except MAR. MAR significantly underestimated mean accumulation, while LMDZ4 and RACMO2 overestimated it. ERA-40 and the regional models that use ERA-40 as lateral boundary condition qualitatively reproduced the chronology of interannual variability but underestimated the magnitude of interannual variations. Two widely used climatologies for Antarctic accumulation agreed well with the mean GS data. The model-based climatology was also able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern. These data thus provide new stringent constraints on models and other large-scale evaluations of the Antarctic accumulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we summarize the motivation and issues surrounding the responses of ice sheets and sea level to past climate warming as part of the PALeo constraints on SEA level rise (PALSEA) working group. Papers in this special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews focus on the timescale of glaciations during the late Pliocene, the magnitude of ice-sheet fluctuations and volume leading up to and during the last glacial maximum, the timing and persistence of ice-sheet impacts on deglacial and future relative sea-level change, and relative sea-level change during peak interglacial climate. A more dynamic cryosphere is noted under both late Pliocene and last glacial cycle climate conditions, while relative sea-level changes during the last deglaciation appear to correspond closely with individual ice-sheet deglaciation. Lastly, relative sea-level change during peak interglacial conditions may have fluctuated by as much as a meter, although the sources of such variability (Greenland, Antarctica or elsewhere) remain elusive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a decade of research, New Zealand's Latitudinal Gradient Project (LGP) now includes primary sites from Cape Hallett (72°S) to the Darwin Glacier (80°S), while additional observations extend the latitudinal transect from 84°S to sub-Antarctic regions. The LGP has been structured around a hypothesis that, in a frigid continent, ice dynamics is the key ecosystem variable. For terrestrial environments, two aspects of ice dynamics appear to underlie much of the observed variability. Firstly, the aridity of the region makes the transition from ice to water a key ecological factor, and secondly, the legacy of ice dynamics dating as far back as the Pliocene is imprinted on biogeography. These factors operate at difference temporal and spatial scales and neither is monotonically related to latitude. Both are also complicated by meso-scale cross gradients of altitude and distance from the sea and micro-scale local variability. Whilst climate does vary on a broad-scale, differences within the northern and central parts of Victoria Land that the LGP has so far examined are insufficient to impose any overarching effect that can overwhelm these more local effects. The result is a multiple-scale patchwork of habitats and communities, more or less replicated across the transect, in which variability at any given latitude generally exceeds variability between latitudes. A lesser quantum of research has been directed at marine ecosystems, but here there is a similar picture of local variability dominating within the Ross Sea, with significant latitude-scale effects only emerging when transects are extended into maritime- and sub-Antarctic regions. It is implicit, but not specifically recognized in the LGP context, that a further confounding effect on the interpretation of 'transect' information is the multiple stressor concept that requires a simultaneous analysis of interacting (synergistic or antagonistic) factors and environmental responses. As the LGP continues to extend further south, climate is expected to become more extreme, and water availability may change sufficiently for loss of habitat and species diversity to occur. Here we discuss options for refining the LGP approach to optimize its potential for understanding variability, and the factors underpinning this, in the Ross Sea Sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric circulation patterns in the Southern Hemisphere have had a significant impact on the climate of the Antarctic and there is much evidence that these circulation patterns have changed in the recent past. This change is thought to have contributed to the warming trend observed at the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 50 years—one of the largest trends observed in this period on the planet. The trends associated with the continental Antarctic climate are less clear but are likely to be impacted less directly by atmospheric circulation changes. The circulation changes can be put into the context of longer timescales by considering atmospheric circulation reconstructions that have been performed using data from Antarctic ice cores. In this review paper we look at the main body of work examining: Antarctic climate trends; the understanding and impact of atmospheric circulation of the mid- to high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere; and the usefulness and reliability of atmospheric circulation reconstructions from Antarctic ice core data. Finally, beyond several of the more quantitative reconstructions, it is deemed that an assessment of their consistency is not possible due to the variety of circulation characteristics that the various reconstructions consider. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate observations at Orcadas represent the only southern high-latitude site where data span more than a century, and its daily measurements are presented for the first time in this paper. Although limited to a single station, the observed warming trends are among the largest found anywhere on the earth, facilitating the study of changes in extreme temperatures as well as averages. Factors that may influence Antarctic climate include natural variability; changes in greenhouse gases; and, since about the mid-1970s, the development of the ozone hole. The seasonality of observed warming and its temporal evolution during the century are both key for interpretations of Antarctic climate change. No statistically significant climate trends are observed at Orcadas from 1903 to 1950. However, statistically significant warming is evident at Orcadas throughout all four seasons of the year since 1950. Particularly in austral fall and winter, the warming of the cold extremes (coldest 5% and 10% of days) substantially exceeds the warming of the mean or of the warmest days, providing a key indicator for cold season Antarctic climate change studies. Trends in the summer season means and extremes since 1970 are approximately twice as large as those observed earlier, supporting suggestions of additional regional warming in that season because of the effects of ozone depletion on the circulation. Further, in the spring and summer seasons, significant mean warming also occurred prior to the development of the Antarctic ozone hole (i.e., 1950–70), supporting an important role for processes other than ozone depletion, such as greenhouse gas increases, for the climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geological evidence shows that the ice sheet and climate in Antarctica has changed considerably since the onset of glaciation around 34 million years ago. By analysing this evidence, important information concerning processes responsible for ice sheet growth and decay can be determined, which is vital for appreciating future changes in Antarctica. Geological records are diverse and their analyses require a variety of techniques. They are, however, essential for the establishment of hypotheses regarding past Antarctic changes. Numerical models of ice and climate are useful for testing such hypotheses, and in recent years there have been several advances in our knowledge relating to ice sheet history gained from these tests. This paper documents five case studies, employing a full range of techniques, to exemplify recent insights into Antarctic climate evolution from modelling ice sheet inception in the earliest Oligocene to quantifying Neogene ice sheet fluctuations and process-led investigations of recent (last glacial) changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A nested ice flow model was developed for eastern Dronning Maud Land to assist with the dating and interpretation of the EDML deep ice core. The model consists of a high-resolution higher-order ice dynamic flow model that was nested into a comprehensive 3-D thermomechanical model of the whole Antarctic ice sheet. As the drill site is on a flank position the calculations specifically take into account the effects of horizontal advection as deeper ice in the core originated from higher inland. First the regional velocity field and ice sheet geometry is obtained from a forward experiment over the last 8 glacial cycles. The result is subsequently employed in a Lagrangian backtracing algorithm to provide particle paths back to their time and place of deposition. The procedure directly yields the depth-age distribution, surface conditions at particle origin, and a suite of relevant parameters such as initial annual layer thickness. This paper discusses the method and the main results of the experiment, including the ice core chronology, the non-climatic corrections needed to extract the climatic part of the signal, and the thinning function. The focus is on the upper 89% of the ice core (appr. 170 kyears) as the dating below that is increasingly less robust owing to the unknown value of the geothermal heat flux. It is found that the temperature biases resulting from variations of surface elevation are up to half of the magnitude of the climatic changes themselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

George VI Ice Shelf is the largest ice shelf on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Covering a total area of 25 000 km². The northern ice front of George VI Ice Shelf presently marks the southernmost occurrence of recent ice-shelf retreat on the Antarctic Peninsula and according to some predictions the ice shelf is close to its thermal limit of stability, If these predictions are accurate and we are witnessing the first stages of retreat then it is critical that we take the opportunity to examine the ice shelf in its pre-collapse phase. This paper provides a review of the geological evolution, glaciology and interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. We also discuss the present behaviour of the ice shelf, in the context of recent retreat of its northern and southern ice fronts, and outline several possible mechanisms for future ice shelf collapse. What emerges from this review is that the stability of George VI Ice Shelf is sensitive not only to the recent rapid regional atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula which has led to the gradual retreat of the northern and southern ice shelf fronts, but also to changes in ocean circulation, particularly intrusions of warm Upper Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf. It is likely that any future change in the stability of George VI Ice Shelf will involve a combined atmospheric and oceanic forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this work is to assess potential future Antarctic surface mass balance changes, the underlying mechanisms, and the impact of these changes on global sea level. To this end, this paper presents simulations of the Antarctic climate for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The simulations were carried out with a stretched-grid atmospheric general circulation model, allowing for high horizontal resolution (60 km) over Antarctica. It is found that the simulated present-day surface mass balance is skilful on continental scales. Errors on regional scales are moderate when observed sea surface conditions are used; more significant regional biases appear when sea surface conditions from a coupled model run are prescribed. The simulated Antarctic surface mass balance increases by 32 mm water equivalent per year in the next century, corresponding to a sea level decrease of 1.2 mm year−1 by the end of the twenty-first century. This surface mass balance increase is largely due to precipitation changes, while changes in snow melt and turbulent latent surface fluxes are weak. The temperature increase leads to an increased moisture transport towards the interior of the continent because of the higher moisture holding capacity of warmer air, but changes in atmospheric dynamics, in particular off the Antarctic coast, regionally modulate this signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water stable isotope records from ice cores (δ18 O and δ D) are a critical tool for constraining long-term temperature variability at high latitudes. However, precipitation in Antarctica consists of semi-continuous small events and intermittent extreme events. In regions of high accumulation, this can bias ice core records towards recording the synoptic climate conditions present during extreme precipitation events. In this study we utilise a combination of ice core data, reanalysis products, and models to understand how precipitation intermittency impacts the temperature records preserved in an ice core from Mount Brown South in East Antarctica. Extreme precipitation events represent only the largest 10 % of all precipitation events, but they account for 52 % of the total annual snowfall at this site, leading to an overrepresentation of these events in the ice core record. Extreme precipitation events are associated with high-pressure systems in the mid-latitudes that cause increased transport of warm and moist air from the southern Indian Ocean to the ice core site. Warm temperatures associated with these events result in a +4.8 ∘ C warm bias in the mean annual temperature when weighted by daily precipitation, and water isotopes in the Mount Brown South ice core are shown to be significantly correlated with local temperature when this precipitation-induced temperature bias is included. The Mount Brown South water isotope record spans more than 1000 years and will provide a valuable regional reconstruction of long-term temperature and hydroclimate variability in the data-sparse southern Indian Ocean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) transport large amounts of moisture from the mid- to high-latitudes and they are a primary driver of the most extreme snowfall events, along with surface melting, in Antarctica. In this study, we characterize the climatology and surface impacts of ARs on West Antarctica, focusing on the Amundsen Sea Embayment and Marie Byrd Land. First, we develop a climatology of ARs in this region, using an Antarctic-specific AR detection tool combined with the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) atmospheric reanalyses. We find that while ARs are infrequent (occurring 3 % of the time), they cause intense precipitation in short periods of time and account for 11 % of the annual surface accumulation. They are driven by the coupling of a blocking high over the Antarctic Peninsula with a low-pressure system known as the Amundsen Sea Low. Next, we use observations from automatic weather stations on Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf with the firn model SNOWPACK and interferometric reflectometry (IR) to examine a case study of three ARs that made landfall in rapid succession from 2 to 8 February 2020, known as an AR family event. While accumulation dominates the surface impacts of the event on Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (> 100 kgm-2 or millimeters water equivalent), we find small amounts of surface melt as well (< 5 kgm-2). The results presented here enable us to quantify the past impacts of ARs on West Antarctica's surface mass balance (SMB) and characterize their interannual variability and trends, enabling a better assessment of future AR-driven changes in the SMB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warm, salty Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is recognized as the primary driver for Antarctic glacial melt, but the mechanism by which it reaches the continental shelves remains highly uncertain from an observational standpoint. With the scarcity of eddy flux estimation in the Antarctic margin, we quantify the isopycnal diffusivity of CDW using hydrographic variability and satellite altimetry under the mixing length framework. For comparison, the spiciness and thickness are used as isopycnal tracers, and the two tracers yield qualitatively similar estimates. Over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), variation of mixing length is generally aligned with the jet‐induced mixing suppression, including in areas where topography blocks the jet's influence. In contrast, the mixing length does not depend on the mean flow in the subpolar zone, likely reflecting the relatively quiescent flow regime. The estimated isopycnal diffusivity ranges from 100 to 500 m2 s−1 south of the ACC. The eddy diffusivity tends to be enhanced where the gradient of isopycnal thickness becomes small and CDW intrudes onshore. The cross‐slope eddy CDW flux is estimated, and the associated onshore heat flux across is calculated as ∼3.6 TW in the eastern Indian sector. The eddy heat flux and coastal solar heating are generally balanced with cryospheric heat sinks including glacial melting and surface freezing, suggesting that the eddy advection is substantial for the onshore CDW flux. The thickness field is essential for determining mixing length and eddy fluxes in the subpolar zone, however this is not the case in the ACC domain. Plain Language Summary: The deep ocean is a significant source of heat and salt for the Antarctic coasts. Thus, its behavior is relevant for a wide range of climate sciences, such as Antarctic glacial melt, sea ice variability, and global ocean overturning. The warm deep water is presumably transported to the Antarctic coasts by ocean eddies, but observational evidence has not been provided to date. By synthesizing ocean measurements and satellite altimetry, we estimate the eddy‐driven onshore transport of the deep water over the Antarctic margin. It is shown that shoreward heat transport by eddies is generally balanced with heat gain by solar heating and heat loss expected from surface freezing and glacial melt. This result indicates that eddy transport plays a fundamental role in the coastal heat supply. The thickness of the deep water primarily controls the ability to mix along density surfaces that bridge the open ocean to the continental shelves; more homogeneous thickness allows for easier mixing. Our results facilitate the possibility of predicting the diffusion rate of eddies using the thickness of the deep water. This idea is helpful in simulating deep‐water transport in global climate models, where sub‐grid and unresolved effects of eddies need to be prescribed. Key Points: Eddy diffusivity in the subpolar Southern Ocean is estimated to be 100–500 m2 s−1 based on hydrographic variability and satellite altimetryEddy heat flux towards the Wilkes Land is ∼3.6 TW, nearly balancing with surface freezing, glacial melt, and solar heatingThe thickness gradient controls mixing length and eddy diffusivity in the subpolar zone [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) are coherent circulations that occur over polar regions and can be identified by a local minimum in potential temperature and local maximum in potential vorticity. Numerous studies have focused on TPVs in the Arctic region; however, no previous studies have focused on the Antarctic. Given the role of TPVs in the Northern Hemisphere with surface cyclones and other extreme weather, and the role that surface cyclones can play on moisture transport and sea ice breakup, it is important to understand whether similar associations exist in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, characteristics of TPVs in the Antarctic are evaluated for the first time under the hypothesis that their characteristics do not significantly differ from those of the Northern Hemisphere. To improve understanding of Antarctic TPV characteristics, this study examines TPVs of the Southern Hemisphere and compares them to their Northern Hemisphere counterparts from 1979 to 2018 using ERA-Interim data. Common characteristics of TPVs including frequency, locations, lifetimes, strength, and seasonality are evaluated. Results indicate that topography correlates to the geographic distribution of TPVs and the locations of local maxima TPV occurrence, as observed in the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, TPVs in the Southern Hemisphere exhibit seasonal variations for amplitude, lifetime, and minimum potential temperature. Southern Hemisphere TPVs share many similar characteristics to those observed in the Northern Hemisphere, including longer summer lifetimes. The association of Southern Hemisphere TPVs and surface cyclone frequency is explored, and it appears that TPVs have a precursory role to surface cyclones, as seen in the Northern Hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is the most recent coordinated experiment of global climate modeling. Compared to its predecessor CMIP3, the fifth phase of the homonymous experiment-CMIP5 involves a greater number of GCMs, run at higher resolutions with more complex components. Here we use daily GCM data from both projects to test their efficiency in representing precipitation and temperature parameters with the use of a state of the art high resolution gridded global dataset for land areas and for the period 1960-2005. Two simple metrics, a comprehensive histogram similarity metric based on the match of simulated and observed empirical pdfs and a metric for the representation of the annual cycle were employed as performance indicators. The metrics were used to assess the skill of each GCM at the entire spectrum of precipitation and temperature pdfs but also for the upper and lower tails of it. Results are presented globally and regionally for 26 land regions that represent different climatic regimes, covering the total earth's land surface except for Antarctica. Compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 models perform better in simulating precipitation including relatively intense events and the fraction of wet days. For temperature the improvement is not as clear except for the upper and lower hot and cold events of the distribution. The agreement of model simulations is also considerably increased in CMIP5. Substantial improvement in intense precipitation is observed over North Europe, Central and Eastern North America and North East Europe. Nevertheless, in both ensembles some models clearly perform better than others from a histogram similarity point of view. The derived skill score metrics provide essential information for impact studies based on global or regional land area multi-model ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstruction of intermediate water properties is important for understanding feedbacks within the ocean-climate system, particularly since these water masses are capable of driving high–low latitude teleconnections. Nevertheless, information about intermediate water mass evolution through the late Pleistocene remains limited. This paper examines changes in Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), the most extensive intermediate water mass in the modern ocean through the last 400 kyr using the stable isotopic composition ( δ 18 O and δ 13 C) and trace element concentration (Mg/Ca and B/Ca) of two benthic foraminiferal species from the same samples: epifaunal Planulina wuellerstorfi and infaunal Uvigerina peregrina . Our results confirm that the most reasonable estimates of AAIW temperature and Δ[CO 2− 3 ] are generated by Mg/Ca U. peregrina and B/Ca P. wuellerstorfi , respectively. We present a 400 kyr record of intermediate water temperature and Δ[CO 2− 3 ] from a sediment core from the Southwest Pacific (DSDP site 593; 40°30′S, 167°41′E, 1068 m water depth), which lies within the core of modern AAIW. Our results suggest that a combination of geochemical analyses on both infaunal and epifaunal benthic foraminiferal species yields important information about this critical water mass through the late Pleistocene. When combined with two nearby records of water properties from deeper depths, our data demonstrate that during interglacial stages of the late Pleistocene, AAIW and Circumpolar Deep Water (CPDW) have more similar water mass properties (temperature and δ 13 C), while glacial stages are typified by dissimilar properties between AAIW and CPDW in the Southwest Pacific. Our new Δ[CO 2− 3 ] record shows short time-scale variations, but a lack of coherent glacial–interglacial variability indicating that large quantities of carbon were not stored in intermediate waters during recent glacial periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite lidar remote sensing of the atmosphere has been ongoing for more than a decade providing the opportunity to study atmospheric processes in great detail. Here we use 12 years of Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization measurements to derive a climatology of blowing snow layer height, optical depth, and frequency over Antarctica for the period 2006–2017. Limited to the vertical resolution of the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization data, our climatology includes all blowing snow layers greater than about 30 m in thickness for clear or optically thin cloud regions. Our results show that blowing snow occurs over 50% of the time over large regions with frequencies often exceeding 70%. The overall pattern of blowing snow frequency is fairly consistent from year to year, but there are regional differences. We examined the data for temporal trends in blowing snow properties and found significant trends only in blowing snow frequency. A small area of East Antarctica with generally low blowing snow frequency shows a statistically significant increase in blowing snow frequency ranging from 10% to 100% per decade. No significant trends in frequency were found in regions of high (>50%) blowing snow frequency, and only isolated small areas exhibited a decrease in frequency through the study period. Plain Language Summary: During the last decade a new satellite remote sensing tool has become available for atmospheric research. The technique, called lidar (light ranging and detection), uses short (laser) pulses of visible light to probe the vertical structure of the atmosphere. The Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations mission launched in 2006 has greatly increased our knowledge of atmospheric structure over the polar region. One of the important discoveries made by this satellite is the ubiquitous nature of blowing snow episodes over Antarctica. Blowing snow occurs when the surface wind exceeds a threshold value (about 5–7 m/s) and snow is carried aloft and transported downwind. Once aloft, the snow particles can be carried great distances and even blown off the continent. In this paper we use Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation data to detect the occurrence of blowing snow over Antarctica and construct a 12‐year climatology of its frequency of occurrence, layer depth, and particle density. We have discovered that many regions of Antarctica experience blowing snow over 70% of the time and that blowing snow storms can last for days, cover areas as large as the state of Texas, and reach heights of 400 m or more. Key Points: A first satellite‐derived climatology of blowing snow over Antarctica is presentedBlowing snow frequency exceeds 70% over large regions of East AntarcticaSome areas of East Antarctic show a statistically significant increasing trend in blowing snow frequency [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 5 July to 11 September 2012, the Amundsen–Scott South Pole station experienced an unprecedented 78 days in a row with a maximum temperature at or below −50°C. Aircraft and ground-based activity cannot function without risk below this temperature. Lengthy periods of extreme cold temperatures are characterized by a drop in pressure of around 15 hPa over 4 days, accompanied by winds from grid east. Periodic influxes of warm air from the Weddell Sea raise the temperature as the wind shifts to grid north. The end of the event occurs when the temperature increase is enough to move past the −50°C threshold. This study also examines the length of extreme cold periods. The number of days below −50°C in early winter has been decreasing since 1999, and this trend is statistically significant at the 5% level. Late winter shows an increase in the number of days below −50°C for the same period, but this trend is not statistically significant. Changes in the southern annular mode, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation/tripole index are investigated in relation to the initiation of extreme cold events. None of the correlations are statistically significant. A positive southern annular mode and a La Niña event or a central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation pattern would position the upper-level circulation to favor a strong, symmetrical polar vortex with strong westerlies over the Southern Ocean, leading to a cold pattern over the South Pole. Significance Statement: The Amundsen–Scott South Pole station is the coldest Antarctic station staffed year-round by U.S. personnel. Access to the station is primarily by airplane, especially during the winter months. Ambient temperature limits air access as planes cannot operate at minimum temperatures below −50°C. The station gets supplies during the winter months if needed, and medical emergencies can happen requiring evacuations. Knowing when planes would be able to fly is crucial, especially for life-saving efforts. During 2012, a record 78 continuous days of temperatures below −50°C occurred. A positive southern annular mode denoting strong westerly winds over the Pacific Ocean and a strong polar vortex over the South Pole contribute to the maintenance of long periods of extremely cold temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The stability of the Earth''s major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not correspond to orbital maxima, but occurs at times where the anti-phasing of Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheet retreat is minimised. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Recent advances in GPS sensing technology and the availability of low-cost GPS receivers have allowed the continuous measurements of atmospheric water vapour in all weather conditions and on a global scale. This paper aims to analyze the variability of the Antarctic precipitable water vapour (PWV) observed by GPS receivers. In this contribution, the influence of terrestrial winds on the PWV variations is investigated where the climatology is extremely different from that in the Equatorial region. For this purpose, GPS and surface meteorological data for the period of 2003–2005 are analyzed. A significant diurnal variation in PWV was found over most of the sites with PWV difference increasing more than 0.50mm during summer compared to the winter times on a monthly analysis. Increase in Antarctic PWV evidently follows the variations of the surface temperature. In winter, the temperature increase will be lower by about 1°C and values of water vapour are 13% smaller than during summer months. The characteristics of Antarctic climate represented by the PWV variation show a seasonal dependence, higher (active) in summer and lower (inactive) in winter. It was found that the large decreases in the monthly mean PWV distribution were accompanied by strong winds above 10ms−1. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: At the transition from austral spring to summer of 2004/2005, the field experiment Ice Station Polarstern (ISPOL) took place in the north-western Weddell Sea to observe physical and biological atmosphere–sea ice–ocean processes. The objective of this paper is to discuss the meteorological conditions during ISPOL in the context of long-term climate variability mainly in the north-western Weddell Sea region. This is done with a comprehensive climatology focusing on the seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric and cryospheric data from 1979 to 2005. Key meteorological elements and weather patterns derived from NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 results and sea-ice data from passive microwave radiometer satellite observations are analyzed in combination with ISPOL in situ measurements. The monthly mean air temperature and the mean sea-level pressure were above the long-term average. The latter showed a very much extended variability and range associated with more frequent northerly to south-easterly winds. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper investigates the response of the Antarctic ice sheet shape and volume to changes in outlet flow boundary conditions. We model the transmission of outlet flow boundary perturbations toward the inland ice sheet by taking into account the dynamical properties of the profile. We investigate the effect of outlet perturbations according to their time scales. We derive the analytical relation between the temporal wavelength of the perturbations and the induced wavelength of surface undulations. We show that the inland undulation wavelength and transmission increase with the temporal wavelength of the perturbation, so that the short time scale perturbations are strongly filtered. For a given outlet perturbation, the induced frequency depends on the distance to the coast and on the dynamical characteristics of the profile, so that two adjacent flow lines may have different signals. Because outlet perturbations are poorly quantified, it is difficult to predict their impact on sea level change. However, the impact seems to be smaller than that induced by other random processes, such as accumulation rate fluctuations. Finally, an analysis of the ice sheet topography anomalies suggests that in some places, the actual response to a past outlet perturbation can be suspected. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Atmospheric moisture is a key component in the water cycle and radiative transfer. In this study, a comprehensive picture of air moisture climatology and related physical processes is presented for the first time for the circumpolar area south of 50°S. The results are based on the most modern global reanalysis, ERA5, which manages reasonably well to close the Antarctic water budget. We show that over the ocean transient cyclones have the dominant role in determining moisture conditions, whereas over the continent the moisture conditions are largely affected by the mean circulation. Over the open sea, moisture transport from lower latitudes is an equally important source of moisture compared to the local evaporation, but practically all precipitating moisture over the plateau is provided by the horizontal transport. Over the ocean and continental slopes, southward moisture transport brings warm and moist air masses from lower latitudes, notably increasing atmospheric water vapor and cloud water, and simultaneously decreasing local evaporation over the open sea. On the Antarctic plateau, radiative cooling leads to high relative humidity and causes condensation of moisture especially near the surface, causing a nearly permanent specific humidity inversion layer. As a consequence, dry air masses with extremely low specific humidity are formed. These dry air masses are transported downward from the plateau by katabatic winds, experiencing adiabatic warming. This leads to a decrease in relative humidity and to a downward-directed sensible heat flux, which enable efficient surface evaporation on the coastal slopes and farther over coastal polynyas and leads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Slope Front (ASF) is a fundamental feature of the subpolar Southern Ocean that is still poorly observed. In this study we build a statistical climatology of the temperature and salinity fields of the upper 380m of the Antarctic margin. We use a comprehensive compilation of observational datasets including the profiles gathered by instrumented marine mammals. The mapping method consists first of a decomposition in vertical modes of the combined temperature and salinity profiles. Then the resulting principal components are optimally interpolated on a regular grid and the monthly climatological profiles are reconstructed, providing a physically plausible representation of the ocean. The ASF is located with a contour method and a gradient method applied on the temperature field, two complementary approaches that provide a complete view of the ASF structure. The front extends from the Amundsen Sea to the eastern Weddell Sea and closely tracks the continental shelf break. It is associated with a sharp temperature gradient that is stronger in winter and weaker in summer. The emergence of the front in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen sectors appears to be seasonally variable (slightly more westward in winter than in summer). Investigation of the density gradients across the shelf break indicates a winter slowdown of the baroclinic component of the Antarctic Slope Current at the near surface, in contrast with the seasonal variability of the temperature gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present-day Arctic and Antarctic climate of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) is presented. The CCM3 simulation is from a prescribed and interannually varying sea surface temperature integration from January 1979 through August 1993. Observations from a variety of sources, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses, rawinsonde, and surface station data, are used for validation of CCM3's polar climate during this period. Overall, CCM3 can simulate many important polar climatic features and in general is an incremental improvement over CCM2. The 500-hPa polar vortex minima are too deep by 50--100 m and too zonally symmetric. The Arctic sea level pressure maximum is displaced poleward, while the Icelandic region minimum is extended toward Europe, and the Aleutian region minimum is extended toward Asia. The Antarctic circumpolar trough of low sea level pressure is slightly north of the observed position and is 2--3 hPa too low. Antarctic katabatic winds are similar to observations in magnitude and regional variation. The Antarctic surface wind stress is estimated to be 30%--50% too strong in some regions. Polar tropospheric temperatures are 2&deg--4&degC colder than observations, mostly in the summer season. Low-level winter inversions over the Arctic Ocean are only 3&deg--4&degC, rather than the observed 10&degC. In the Antarctic midcontinent they are around 25&deg--30&degC (about 5&deg stronger than observed) and continue to be stronger than observed along the coast. Although water vapor column is uniformly low by 10%--20% compared to analyses in both polar regions, the regional patterns of minima over Greenland and the East Antarctic plateau are well represented. Annual 70&deg to pole CCM3 values are 5.8 kg m[sup-2] for the Arctic and 1.7 kg m[sup-2] for the Antarctic. The regional distribution of precipitation minus evaporation compares reasonably with analyses. (...). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A suite of chemistry‐climate model simulations, forced by pairs of anthropogenic forcings [comprising greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone depleting substances (ODSs), or aerosols], were employed to investigate whether the high‐latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation response to these forcings is linearly additive, a common assumption in attribution studies. We find that the geographical pattern of sea‐level pressure (SLP) response to a combination of GHGs and ODSs is linearly additive. However, we find significant differences in the SLP response when combining GHGs and aerosols compared to the sum of the individual forcings, a non‐additivity that is currently masked by the dominance of the ODSs forcing. This non‐linearity also results in changes to the SH split jet. These results were obtained using a coupled chemistry‐climate model, indicating that the non‐linear response is due to chemical interactions between the forcing agents. As such, future simulations investigating a post‐ozone hole Southern Hemisphere climate should consider this chemical interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Polar Radiant Energy in the Far Infrared Experiment (PREFIRE) mission will, for the first time, systematically document the far-infrared (15–54 µm) spectral region from space. The environmental sampling characteristics of the PREFIRE CubeSats, defined in terms of surface temperature (Tsfc) and column water vapor (CWV) are evaluated for a range of possible orbit scenarios for both clear-sky and all-sky conditions over a variety of surface types (land, ocean, sea ice, snow, glacier ice) at both poles. Using NASA Aqua's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) retrievals to define the climatological ranges of Tsfc and CWV, the fraction of environmental regimes observed by distinct PREFIRE configurations are evaluated. The sampling rates within any single year for two-orbit CubeSat launches spanning both polar regions are ~75% for clear-sky and ~85% for all-sky compared to the AIRS/AMSU climatology. Decreasing mission duration from 12 to 3 months decreases sampling much more (10%–20%) than decreasing the swath width from 15 to 8 footprints (6%–9%). For a single CubeSat launch, a 98° orbital inclination provides slightly better sampling than either 93° or 103°. For a two-orbit CubeSat launch, a combination of 93° + 98° is somewhat preferable to 103° + 98°. Finally, a 50% data loss rate simulated by dropping out every other orbit leads to only a modest 7%–8% reduction in sampling from full data coverage. This statistical analysis demonstrates that low-cost platforms could offer similar coverage as present-day flagship missions for sampling wide-ranging Tsfc and CWV states over polar regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents airborne in situ and satellite remote sensing climatologies of cirrus clouds and humidity. The climatologies serve as a guide to the properties of cirrus clouds, with the new in situ database providing detailed insights into boreal midlatitudes and the tropics, while the satellite-borne data set offers a global overview. To this end, an extensive, quality-checked data archive, the Cirrus Guide II in situ database, is created from airborne in situ measurements during 150 flights in 24 campaigns. The archive contains meteorological parameters, ice water content (IWC), ice crystal number concentration (Nice), ice crystal mean mass radius (Rice), relative humidity with respect to ice (RH ice), and water vapor mixing ratio (H2O) for each of the flights. Depending on the parameter, the database has been extended by about a factor of 5–10 compared to earlier studies. As one result of our investigation, we show that the medians of Nice , Rice , and RH ice have distinct patterns in the IWC– T parameter space. Lookup tables of these variables as functions of IWC and T can be used to improve global model cirrus representation and remote sensing retrieval methods. Another outcome of our investigation is that across all latitudes, the thicker liquid-origin cirrus predominate at lower altitudes, while at higher altitudes the thinner in situ-origin cirrus prevail. Further, examination of the radiative characteristics of in situ-origin and liquid-origin cirrus shows that the in situ-origin cirrus only slightly warm the atmosphere, while liquid-origin cirrus have a strong cooling effect. An important step in completing the Cirrus Guide II is the provision of the global cirrus Nice climatology, derived by means of the retrieval algorithm DARDAR-Nice from 10 years of cirrus remote sensing observations from satellite. The in situ measurement database has been used to evaluate and improve the satellite observations. We found that the global median Nice from satellite observations is almost 2 times higher than the in situ median and increases slightly with decreasing temperature. Nice medians of the most frequently occurring cirrus sorted by geographical regions are highest in the tropics, followed by austral and boreal midlatitudes, Antarctica, and the Arctic. Since the satellite climatologies enclose the entire spatial and temporal Nicepage12570 occurrence, we could deduce that half of the cirrus are located in the lowest, warmest (224–242 K) cirrus layer and contain a significant amount of liquid-origin cirrus. A specific highlight of the study is the in situ observations of cirrus and humidity in the Asian monsoon anticyclone and the comparison to the surrounding tropics. In the convectively very active Asian monsoon, peak values of Nice and IWC of 30 cm-3 and 1000 ppmv are detected around the cold point tropopause (CPT). Above the CPT, ice particles that are convectively injected can locally add a significant amount of water available for exchange with the stratosphere. We found IWCs of up to 8 ppmv in the Asian monsoon in comparison to only 2 ppmv in the surrounding tropics. Also, the highest RH ice values (120 %–150 %) inside of clouds and in clear sky are observed around and above the CPT. We attribute this to the high H2O mixing ratios (typically 3–5 ppmv) observed in the Asian monsoon compared to 1.5 to 3 ppmv found in the tropics. Above the CPT, supersaturations of 10 %–20 % are observed in regions of weak convective activity and up to about 50 % in the Asian monsoon. This implies that the water available for transport into the stratosphere might be higher than the expected saturation value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is likely to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to ice-sheet mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR. However, predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and internal climate variability (ICV) that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of ICV on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. Here we quantify the effects of ICV on the AIS evolutions by employing climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice-sheet model. We find that ICV of climate fields among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses, and that most of the effect is due to atmospheric variability compared to oceanic. Our results show that ICV can cause about 0.08 m differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean AIS contribution of 0.38–0.45 m. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate forcing fields as the forcing in an ice-sheet model significantly delays retreat of the West AIS for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07–0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. This study highlights the need to take internal climate variability into account in assessing uncertainty associated with the AIS contribution in sea-level rise projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Younger Dryas (YD), arguably the most widely studied millennialscale extreme climate event, was characterized by diverse hydroclimate shifts globally and severe cooling at high northern latitudes that abruptly punctuated the warming trend from the last glacial to the present interglacial. To date, a precise understanding of its trigger, propagation, and termination remains elusive. Here, we present speleothem oxygen-isotope data that, in concert with other proxy records, allow us to quantify the timing of the YD onset and termination at an unprecedented subcentennial temporal precision across the North Atlantic, Asian Monsoon-Westerlies, and South American Monsoon regions. Our analysis suggests that the onsets of YD in the North Atlantic (12,870 ± 30 B.P.) and the Asian Monsoon-Westerlies region are essentially synchronous within a few decades and lead the onset in Antarctica, implying a north-to-south climate signal propagation via both atmospheric (decadal-time scale) and oceanic (centennial-time scale) processes, similar to the Dansgaard– Oeschger events during the last glacial period. In contrast, the YD termination may have started first in Antarctica at ∼11,900 B.P., or perhaps even earlier in the western tropical Pacific, followed by the North Atlantic between ∼11,700 ± 40 and 11,610 ± 40 B.P. These observations suggest that the initial YD termination might have originated in the Southern Hemisphere and/or the tropical Pacific, indicating a Southern Hemisphere/tropics to North Atlantic–Asian Monsoon-Westerlies directionality of climatic recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near-surface wind speed observations from 30 manned meteorological stations and 26 automatic weather stations over the Antarctic Ice Sheet are used to examine the robustness of wind speed climatology in six recent global reanalysis products: the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Reanalysis 2 (NCEP2), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and fifth-generation reanalysis (ERA5). Their skills for representing near-surface wind speeds vary by season, with better performance in summer than in winter. At the regional scale, all reanalysis datasets perform more poorly for the magnitude, but better for their year-to-year changes in wind regimes in the escarpment than the coastal and plateau regions. By comparison, ERA5 has the best performance for the monthly averaged wind speed magnitude and the interannual variability of the near-surface wind speed from 1979 onward. Intercomparison exhibits high and significant correlations for annual and seasonal wind speed Antarctic-wide averages from different datasets during their overlapping timespans (1980–2018), despite some regional disagreements between the different reanalyses. Furthermore, all of the reanalyses show positive trends of the annual and summer wind speeds for the 1980–2018 period, which are linked with positive polarity of the southern annular mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CRU TS (Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series) is a widely used climate dataset on a 0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude grid over all land domains of the world except Antarctica. It is derived by the interpolation of monthly climate anomalies from extensive networks of weather station observations. Here we describe the construction of a major new version, CRU TS v4. It is updated to span 1901–2018 by the inclusion of additional station observations, and it will be updated annually. The interpolation process has been changed to use angular-distance weighting (ADW), and the production of secondary variables has been revised to better suit this approach. This implementation of ADW provides improved traceability between each gridded value and the input observations, and allows more informative diagnostics that dataset users can utilise to assess how dataset quality might vary geographically. Measurement(s) temperature • volume of hydrological precipitation • vapour pressure • wet days • cloud cover Technology Type(s) digital curation Factor Type(s) date of observation • location of observation Sample Characteristic - Environment climate system Sample Characteristic - Location Asia • Africa • Europe • Australia • North America • South America Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11980500 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A thermodynamic model, borrowing ideas from psychrometric principles, of a cryogenic direct-air CO2-capture system utilizing a precooler is used to estimate the optimal CO2 removal fraction to minimize energy input per tonne of CO2. Energy costs to operate the system scale almost linearly with the temperature drop between the ingested air and the cryogenic desublimation temperature of CO2, driving siting to the coldest accessible locations. System performance in three Arctic/Antarctic regions where the proposed system can potentially be located is analyzed. Colder ambient temperatures provide colder system input air temperature yielding lower CO2 removal energy requirements. A case is also presented using direct-sky radiative cooling to feed colder-than-ambient air into the system. Removing greater fractions of the ingested CO2 lowers the CO2 desublimation temperature, thereby demanding greater energy input for air cooling. It therefore is disadvantageous to remove all CO2 from the processed air, and the optimal mass fraction of CO2 desublimated under this scheme is found to be ~0.8-0.9. In addition, a variety of precooler effectiveness (ε) values are evaluated. Increasing effectiveness reduces the required system power input. However, beyond ε = 0.7, at certain higher values of desublimated CO2 mass fraction, the CO2 begins to solidify inside the precooler before reaching the cryocooler. This phenomenon fouls the precooler, negating its effectiveness. Further system efficiencies can be realized via a precooler designed to capture solidified CO2 and eliminate fouling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleoclimate records are rich sources of information about the past history of the Earth system. Information theory provides a new means for studying these records. We demonstrate that weighted permutation entropy of water-isotope data from the West Antarctica Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core reveals meaningful climate signals in this record. We find that this measure correlates with accumulation (meters of ice equivalent per year) and may record the influence of geothermal heating effects in the deepest parts of the core. Dansgaard-Oeschger and Antarctic Isotope Maxima events, however, do not appear to leave strong signatures in the information record, suggesting that these abrupt warming events may actually be predictable features of the climate's dynamics. While the potential power of information theory in paleoclimatology is significant, the associated methods require well-dated and high-resolution data. The WAIS Divide core is the first paleoclimate record that can support this kind of analysis. As more high-resolution records become available, information theory could become a powerful forensic tool in paleoclimate science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional scholarship long held that rock fracturing from physical processes dominates over chemical rock decay processes in cold climates. The paradigm of the supremacy of cold-climate shattering was questioned by Rapp's discovery (1960) that the flux of dissolved solids leaving a Kärkevagge, Swedish Lapland, watershed exceeded physical denudation processes. Many others since have gone on to document the importance of chemical rock decay in all cold climate landscapes, using a wide variety of analytical approaches. This burgeoning scholarship, however, has only generated a few nanoscale studies. Thus, this paper's purpose rests in an exploration of the potential for nanoscale research to better understand chemical processes operating on rock surfaces in cold climates. Samples from several Antarctica locations, Greenland, the Tibetan Plateau, and high altitude tropical and mid-latitude mountains all illustrate ubiquitous evidence of chemical decay at the nanoscale, even though the surficial appearance of each landscape is dominated by "bare fresh rock." With the growing abundance of focused ion beam (FIB) instruments facilitating sample preparation, the hope is that that future rock decay researchers studying cold climates will add nanoscale microscopy to their bag of tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data reported from mid‐2014 to late 2018 by a regional pilot array of Deep Argo floats in the Southwest Pacific Basin are used to estimate regional temperature anomalies from a long‐term climatology as well as regional trends over the 4.4 years of float data as a function of pressure. The data show warm anomalies that increase with increasing pressure from effectively 0 near 2,000 dbar to over 10 (±1) m°C by 4,800 dbar, uncertainties estimated at 5–95%. The 4.4‐year trend estimate shows warming at an average rate of 3 (±1) m°C/year from 5,000 to 5,600 dbar, in the near‐homogeneous layer of cold, dense bottom water of Antarctic origin. These results suggest acceleration of previously reported long‐term warming trends in the abyssal waters in this region. They also demonstrate the ability of Deep Argo to quantify changes in the deep ocean in near real‐time over short periods with high accuracy. Plain Language Summary: The coldest waters that fill much of the deep ocean worldwide originate near Antarctica. Temperature data collected from oceanographic cruises around the world at roughly 10‐year intervals show that these near‐bottom waters have been warming on average since the 1990s, absorbing a substantial amount of heat. Data from an array of robotic profiling Deep Argo floats deployed in the Southwest Pacific Ocean starting in mid‐2014 reveal that near‐bottom waters there have continued to warm over the past 4.4 years. Furthermore, these new data suggest an acceleration of that warming rate. These data show that Deep Argo floats are capable of accurately measuring regional changes in the deep ocean. The ocean is the largest sink of heat on our warming planet. A global array of Deep Argo floats would provide data on how much Earth's climate system is warming and possibly improve predictions of future warming. Key Points: Deep and bottom waters in the Southwest Pacific Basin from 2014 to 2018 are increasingly warmer than climatology with increasing depthThe warm anomaly is statistically different from zero at pressures >2,800 dbar and reaches 11 (±1) m°C by 5,500 dbar (1 m°C = 0.001 °C)Deep Argo floats measure a regional mean warming rate of about 3 (±1) m°C/year from 5,000 to 5,600 dbar and from 2014 to 2018 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is expected to increase during the twenty-first century as the ocean warms, which will have consequences for ice sheet stability and global sea level rise. Here we present future projections of Antarctic ice shelf melting using the Finite Element Sea Ice/Ice-Shelf Ocean Model (FESOM) forced with atmospheric output from models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CMIP5 models are chosen based on their agreement with historical atmospheric reanalyses over the Southern Ocean; the best-performing models are ACCESS 1.0 and the CMIP5 multimodel mean. Their output is bias-corrected for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. During the twenty-first-century simulations, total ice shelf basal mass loss increases by between 41% and 129%. Every sector of Antarctica shows increased basal melting in every scenario, with the largest increases occurring in the Amundsen Sea. The main mechanism driving this melting is an increase in warm Circumpolar Deep Water on the Antarctic continental shelf. A reduction in wintertime sea ice formation simulated during the twenty-first century stratifies the water column, allowing a warm bottom layer to develop and intrude into ice shelf cavities. This effect may be overestimated in the Amundsen Sea because of a cold bias in the present-day simulation. Other consequences of weakened sea ice formation include freshening of High Salinity Shelf Water and warming of Antarctic Bottom Water. Furthermore, freshening around the Antarctic coast in our simulations causes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to weaken and the Antarctic Coastal Current to strengthen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]