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Residential customers are the main users generally need a great quantity of natural gas in distribution systems, especially, in the wintry weather season since it is particularly consumed for cooking and space heating. Hence, it ought to be noninterruptible. Since distribution systems have a restricted ability for supply, reasonable planning and prediction through the whole year, especially in winter seasons, have emerged as vital. The Ridge Regression (RR) is formulated mainly to decrease collinearity results through shrinking the regression coefficients and reducing the impact in the model of variables. Conic multivariate adaptive regression splines ((C)MARS) model is constructed as an effective choice for MARS by using inverse problems, statistical learning, and multi-objective optimization theories. In this approach, the model complexity is penalized in the structure of RR and it is constructed a relaxation by utilizing continuous optimization, called Conic Quadratic Programming (CQP). In this study, CMARS and RR are applied to obtain forecasts of residential natural gas demand for local distribution companies (LDCs) that require short-term forecasts, and the model performances are compared by using some criteria. Here, our analysis shows that CMARS models outperform RR models. For one-day-ahead forecasts, CMARS yields a MAPE of about 4.8%, while the same value under RR reaches 8.5%. As the forecast horizon increases, it can be seen that the performance of the methods becomes worse, and for a forecast one week ahead, the MAPE values for CMARS and RR are 9.9% and 18.3%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In our study, we integrate the data uncertainty of real-world models into our regulatory systems and robustify them. We newly introduce and analyse robust time-discrete target–environment regulatory systems under polyhedral uncertainty through robust optimization. Robust optimization has reached a great importance as a modelling framework for immunizing against parametric uncertainties and the integration of uncertain data is of considerable importance for the model’s reliability of a highly interconnected system. Then, we present a numerical example to demonstrate the efficiency of our new robust regression method for regulatory networks. The results indicate that our approach can successfully approximate the target–environment interaction, based on the expression values of all targets and environmental factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial technologies offer high flexibility to handle substantial amount of spatial data and wide range of modelling capabilities. Remotely sensed data are the most significant data source used in spatial technologies. However, it is often associated with uncertainties due to atmospheric effects (i.e. absorption and scattering by atmospheric gases and aerosols). Methods based on rigorous treatment of radiative transfer models still have some drawbacks in the inversion of top of atmospheric reflectance values to surface reflectance values on large numbers of satellite images. In this paper, our aim is to represent a more flexible (adaptive) approach for the regional atmospheric correction by employing nonparametric regression splines within the frame of inverse problems and modern techniques of continuous optimization. To achieve this objective, atmospheric correction models obtained through conic multivariate adaptive regression splines, which is an alternative method to multivariate adaptive regression splines by constructing a penalized residual sum of squares as a Tikhonov regularization problem, are applied on a set of satellite images in order to convert the top of atmospheric reflectance values into surface reflectance values. The results are compared with the ones obtained by both multivariate adaptive regression splines and a radiative transfer-based method. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Nowadays, the importance of financial crises and defaults of countries are becoming clear due to the globalization in the economic area and investments. Generalized partial linear model (GPLM) is a combination of two different regression models connecting with the mean of the dependent variable with the help of a link function. It is adequate to high-dimensional, non-normal data sets having the flexibility to reflect all anomalies effectively. The nonlinear patterns are also easily explained by the nonparametric component of the model. In this study, we introduce a newly developed conic GPLM (CGPLM) to predict default probabilities of 45 emerging markets using the contribution of a continuous model CMARS and a discrete model logistic regression. We present its application results on a data set with 13 macroeconomic variables in 25 years’ time. To predict debt crises, CGPLM gives better results than a single CMARS and a single logistic regression. In fact, we have 91.81% and 89.31% accuracy rates, computed according to the correctness of the model output, for training and validation sample, respectively. This improvement in prediction of crises can contribute to new prospects and developments in financial mathematics to make more accurate previsions for investments and to take measures due to coming risks. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]