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Mammalian herbivores play a pivotal role in Earth System processes by affecting biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem functioning, potentially leading to significant repercussions on atmosphere–biosphere feedbacks. Global dynamic models of mammalian populations can improve our understanding of their ecological role at large scales and the consequences of their extinctions. However, such models are still lacking and mammals are poorly integrated in Earth System Science.We developed a mechanistic global model of terrestrial herbivore populations simulated with 37 functional groups defined through the analysis of eco‐physiological traits across all extant herbivores (2599 species). We coupled this model with a global vegetation model to predict herbivores' maximum potential biomass in pre‐industrial and at present‐day and to study the environmental drivers explaining the distribution of herbivore biomass. Present‐day biomass was estimated by accounting for anthropogenic activity causing habitat and range losses.We show that natural ecosystems could have sustained a potential wild herbivore wet biomass of 330 Mt (95% CI: 245–417), comprised of 193 Mt (95% CI: 177–208) by large species (body mass >1–10 kg, depending on functional group) and 138 Mt (95% CI: 68–209) by small species. We estimate that the remaining present‐day large herbivores biomass is 82 Mt (95% CI: 32–133), reduced by 57% due to anthropogenic activity; consequently, small herbivores currently dominate global herbivore biomass with 98 Mt (95% CI: 91–106, −29%). Losses vary greatly across climatic zones and functional groups, suggesting that size is not the only discriminant feature of biomass decline.Actual evapotranspiration is the most important driver of total, large and small herbivore biomass and explains 64%, 59% and 49% of its variation, respectively. Distribution of modelled and observed large herbivores' biomass suggested a high dependency on energy and water with more biomass in hot and wet areas. These results challenge the notion that large herbivore biomass peaks primarily in ecosystems with intermediate precipitation levels such as savannas.Outside Africa and the Tropics, pre‐industrial biomass hotspots occur in areas today dominated by humans; this could undermine the recovery of larger species biomass in certain areas. Our herbivore biomass estimates provide a quantitative benchmark for setting conservation and rewilding goals at large spatial scales. The herbivore model and functional classification create new opportunities to integrate mammals into Earth System Science and models. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Filling the global biodiversity financing gap will require significant investments from financial markets, which demand credible valuations of ecosystem services and natural capital. However, current valuation approaches discourage investment in conservation because their results cannot be verified using market-determined prices. Here, we bridge the gap between finance and conservation by valuing only wild animals' carbon services for which market prices exist. By projecting the future path of carbon service production using a spatially explicit demographic model, we place a credible value on the carbon capture services produced by African forest elephants. If elephants were protected, their services would be worth $20.8 billion ($10.3 to $29.7 billion) and $25.9 billion ($12.8 to $37.6 billion) for the next 10 and 30 y, respectively, and could finance anti-poaching and conservation programs. Elephant population growth would generate a carbon sink of 109 MtC (64 to 153) across tropical Africa in the next 30 y. Avoided elephant extinction would also prevent the loss of 93 MtC (46 to 130), which is the contribution of the remaining populations. Uncertainties in our projections are controlled mainly by forest regeneration rates and poaching intensity, which indicate that conservation can actively reduce uncertainty for increased financial and biodiversity benefits. Our methodology can also place lower bounds on the social cost of nature degradation. Poaching would result in $2 to $7 billion of lost carbon services within the next 10 to 30 y, suggesting that the benefits of protecting elephants far outweigh the costs. Our methodology enables the integration of animal services into global financial markets with major implications for conservation, local socioeconomies, and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Megafauna (terrestrial vertebrate herbivores > 5 kg) can have disproportionate direct and indirect effects on forest structure, function, and biogeochemical cycles. We reviewed the literature investigating these effects on tropical forest dynamics and biogeochemical cycles in relation to ecology, paleoecology, and vegetation modelling. We highlight the limitations of field‐based studies in evaluating the long‐term consequences of loss of megafauna. These limitations are due to inherent space‐time restrictions of field‐studies and a research focus on seed dispersal services provided by large animals. We further present evidence of a research gap concerning the role of megafauna in carbon cycling in tropical ecosystems. Specifically, changes in aboveground biomass might not be noticeable in short‐term studies because of slow vegetation dynamics requiring decades to respond to disturbance (i.e. defaunation). Nutrient cycling has received even less attention in relation to the role of megafauna in tropical forests. We present an approach to investigate the effects of megafauna from new perspectives and with various tools (notably, vegetation models), which can simulate long‐term dynamics in different environmental and megafauna density scenarios. Vegetation models could facilitate interaction between plant–animal ecology and biogeochemistry research. We present practical examples on how to integrate plant–animal interactions in vegetation models to further our understanding of the role of large herbivores in tropical forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the potential for cumulative impacts from multiple anthropogenic stressors on fish, sea birds, and marine mammals in the western, southern and south-eastern parts of marine waters around Greenland. The analysis is based on a comprehensive data set representing five human activities including two proxies for climate change, as well as 25 key animal species including commercially important fish and top predators such as sea birds and marine mammals. Anthropogenic stressors are concentrated in two areas: the offshore waters south of Greenland, and especially the western coast from the Qeqertarsuaq (Disko Island) area to the southern tip of Greenland. The latter is also an area of high importance for many key species, thus the potential for cumulative impacts is high along Greenland's west coast. We conclude that this area should be under high scientific scrutiny and conservation attention. Our study is a first attempt and a stepping-stone towards more detailed and accurate estimates of the effects of multiple human stressors on Arctic marine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Masting is the highly variable and synchronous production of seeds by plants. Masting can have cascading effects on plant population dynamics and forest properties such as tree growth, carbon stocks, regeneration, nutrient cycling, or future species composition. However, masting has often been missing from forest models. Those few that simulate masting have done so using relatively simple empirical rules, and lack an implementation of process-based mechanisms that control such events. Here we review more than 200 published papers on mechanistic formulations of masting, and summarize how the main processes involved in masting and their related patterns can be incorporated in forest models at different degrees of complexity. Our review showed that, of all proximate causes of masting, resource acquisition, storage and allocation were the processes studied most often. Hormonal and genetic regulation of bud formation, floral induction, and anthesis were less frequently addressed. We outline the building blocks of a general process-based model of masting that can be used to improve the oversimplified functions in different types of forest models, and to implement them where missing. A complete implementation of masting in forest models should include functions for resource allocation and depletion, and for pollination, as regulated by both forest structure and weather in the years prior to seed production. When models operate at spatio-temporal scales mismatched with the main masting processes, or if calibration data are not available, simulation can be based on parameterizing masting patterns (variability, synchrony, or frequency). Also, observed masting patterns have the potential to be used as “reality checks” for more process-based forest models wishing to accurately reproduce masting as an emergent phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]