Search

We argue that the economies that achieved inclusive growth, or high sustained and broad‐based growth while keeping a lid on the increase in market income inequality, are characterised by dynamism—a drive towards the acquisition of new capabilities in sophisticated products and processes. What a country produces and how much it competes domestically and internationally are important for achieving fair and inclusive markets. We show empirical evidence that dynamism, as measured by export sophistication, reduces market income inequality and poverty while increasing a broad concept of welfare. We explore policy options to steer industrial and market structures towards raising dynamism, thus providing growth opportunities for both workers and firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian miracles along with a handful of European economies and oil exporters are the few countries that reached high‐income status during 1960–2014. In contrast, many good‐performing countries such as Malaysia have been middle‐income countries for several decades despite relatively strong growth and a substantial improvement in education and export sophistication. We argue that the key factor differentiating the Asian miracles from economies like Malaysia is the creation of technologies by domestic firms and leapfrogging to the technological frontier at an early stage of development. Sophisticated tradable manufacturing and high‐tech innovation sectors offer opportunities for local technology creation, high potential spillovers, and sustainable growth and employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial policy is tainted with bad reputation among policymakers and academics and is often viewed as the road to perdition for developing economies. Yet the success of the Asian Miracles with industrial policy stands as an uncomfortable story that many ignore or claim it cannot be replicated. We argue that one can learn from these miracles and we suggest that three key principles were behind their success: (i) the support of domestic producers in sophisticated industries, beyond the initial comparative advantage; (ii) export orientation; and (iii) the pursuit of fierce competition with strict accountability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We study the effects of permanent and temporary income shocks on precautionary saving and investment in a “store‐or‐sow” model of growth. High volatility of permanent shocks results in high precautionary saving in the safe asset and low investment or a “volatility trap,” namely, big savers invest relatively little. In contrast, low volatility of permanent shocks leads to low precautionary saving and high or low investment, depending on the volatility of temporary shocks. Empirical evidence shows a nonlinear relationship between investment and saving and that investment is a hump‐shaped function of the volatility of permanent shocks, as predicted by the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]