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6. Realistic estimate of the Covid-19 incidence and mortality rate in France

Author

Malpuech, Guillaume, Tournadre, Anne, Berry, Francois, and Gerbaud, Laurent

Subjects
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
Abstract

Large scale virological testing of SARS-Cov2 is implemented since May 2020 in France. We assume that the positivity of asymptomatic people not being contact cases (ANBC) is representative of the positivity of the whole French population, which allows estimating the real incidence. We estimate, using Sant\'e Public France reports, that the incidence at the beginning of August was about 0.8% and rose to about 2.4% of the total population at the beginning of September. This corresponds to about 1.6 million people simultaneously infected and 230.000 new infections each day. These evaluations allow to deduce that intensive care units (ICU) admission rate and infection fatality rate (IFR) dropped by one order of magnitude since March, and are currently 0.036% and 0.027% respectively. Basic simulations of the outbreak evolution based on the hypothesis of negligible reinfection probability are performed for France, Ile de France, Puy de Dome, Bouches du Rhone and Grand Est. These simulations are using a reproduction rate (R) constant over time ranging from 1.3 to 1.45 (1.15 in Grand Est). They use an estimation of the number of infection which occurred during the first wave. These simulations also use the estimated incidence, which by reducing the susceptible population weeks after weeks induces a saturation of the otherwise exponential growth of the outbreak. An incidence peak of 3.5 % is expected at week 39 for France. The calculated total number of ICU admission and deaths during the second wave are 9000 and 7000 respectively for R=1.3. The cumulative incidence over the two waves is computed close to 60% for R=1.3 and 70% for R=1.4. This suggests that if individual immunity exists, herd immunity is likely to be achieved in France by the end of October 2020. We conclude that Covid-19 is much more spread than previously thought, but its severity became limited since the end of the first wave., Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures

Published
2020

13. Air-Gap Reluctance Function for MEC Dynamic Models of Smooth Rotor Machines

Author

Cardoso, Juliana Fernandes, Fassenet, Marylin, Chillet, Christian, Gerbaud, Laurent, Abdeljalil Belhaj, Lamya, Angrisani, Leopoldo, Series Editor, Arteaga, Marco, Series Editor, Panigrahi, Bijaya Ketan, Series Editor, Chakraborty, Samarjit, Series Editor, Chen, Jiming, Series Editor, Chen, Shanben, Series Editor, Chen, Tan Kay, Series Editor, Dillmann, Rüdiger, Series Editor, Duan, Haibin, Series Editor, Ferrari, Gianluigi, Series Editor, Ferre, Manuel, Series Editor, Hirche, Sandra, Series Editor, Jabbari, Faryar, Series Editor, Jia, Limin, Series Editor, Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series Editor, Khamis, Alaa, Series Editor, Kroeger, Torsten, Series Editor, Liang, Qilian, Series Editor, Martín, Ferran, Series Editor, Ming, Tan Cher, Series Editor, Minker, Wolfgang, Series Editor, Misra, Pradeep, Series Editor, Möller, Sebastian, Series Editor, Mukhopadhyay, Subhas, Series Editor, Ning, Cun-Zheng, Series Editor, Nishida, Toyoaki, Series Editor, Pascucci, Federica, Series Editor, Qin, Yong, Series Editor, Seng, Gan Woon, Series Editor, Speidel, Joachim, Series Editor, Veiga, Germano, Series Editor, Wu, Haitao, Series Editor, Zhang, Junjie James, Series Editor, Zamboni, Walter, editor, and Petrone, Giovanni, editor

Published
2020
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22. Joint Use of e.Photoexpression© and Photonarration: What Methodological Added Value?

Author

Deyra Maéliane, Gay Chloé, Gerbaud Laurent, Berland Pauline, and Pizon Frank

Subjects
complementarity, methodological added value, e.Photoexpression©, photonarration, cancer and health perceptions, children, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Objectives: The objective is to describe the informative value and the added value of a qualitative multiphase methodology in order to investigate the conceptions of children aged 6–11 on the determinants of health and cancer.Method: This article provides an analysis of the “Determ'Ados” research protocol, a qualitative study in human and social sciences, carried out with children aged 6–11 years. This protocol, organized in three phases, addresses in the first global health with the tool “e.Photoexpression©,” in the second questions and knowledge around the topic of cancer with the tool “QC” and in the third cancer again with the “Photonarration” tool. The methodology of this innovative, open and exploratory research protocol aims to collect data relating to the experiences, declared practices and knowledge specific to each child who express themselves through photography and storytelling.Results: The analysis of the Déterm'Ados methodology reveals a density and richness of results among all the children interviewed, even among the youngest: 1,498 productions (4 productions per child) were made by 381 children resulting in a wealth of data available thanks to the multiphase protocol. This massive qualitative survey brings complementarity as the collection phases progress and guarantees continuity in the discourse of each child which allows them to deepen their conceptions and to know how they create or not meaning between the determinants of health and cancer.Perspectives: The density and quality of the proposals collected from the children reinforce the validity and rigor of the Determ'Ados methodology. Multiphase is the innovative aspect of the tools used. The e.Photoexpression© and the Photonarration are complementary and inseparable to bring out concepts on health and cancer. These research results, transferable into interventions and current practices, present prevention officers to act more effectively, closer to the conceptions and needs of children.

Published
2021
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36. Are Energy and Protein Intakes Lower Than Requirements in Older Adults? An Urgent Issue in Hospitals and Nursing Homes

Author

Blanquet, Marie, primary, Guiguet-Auclair, Candy, additional, Berland, Pauline, additional, Ducher, Guillaume, additional, Sauvage, Anaïs, additional, Dadet, Sylvain, additional, Guiyedi, Vincent, additional, Farigon, Nicolas, additional, Bohatier, Jérôme, additional, Gerbaud, Laurent, additional, and Boirie, Yves, additional

Published
2023
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40. Ce que la Covid-19 nous apprend sur la modélisation des épidémies

Author

Mathiot, Jean-François, Gerbaud, Laurent, Breton, Vincent, Laboratoire de Physique de Clermont (LPC), Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA), Institut Pascal (IP), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Institut national polytechnique Clermont Auvergne (INP Clermont Auvergne), and Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)

Subjects
[PHYS]Physics [physics], [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], General Medicine
Abstract

L’épidémie de Covid-19 se transmet par les voies respiratoires. Ce mode de transmission dépend essentiellement des relations sociales entre individus, par opposition aux épidémies dont l’élément pathogène est transmis à longue distance, comme par exemple par l’eau. Après un bref résumé des différents types de modèles utilisés jusqu’à présent pour comprendre cette épidémie, nous présentons un nouveau modèle basé sur la théorie de la percolation. Il permet d’intégrer de façon naturelle les trois caractéristiques des relations sociales, pertinentes pour la propagation de l’épidémie : leur densité, leur intensité et leur variété. Quelques résultats sur la modélisation de l’évolution de l’épidémie de Covid-19 en France depuis ses débuts sont présentés.

Published
2022

47. Handgrip strength as a valid practical tool to screen early-onset sarcopenia in acute care wards: a first evaluation

Author

Blanquet, Marie, Ducher, Guillaume, Sauvage, Anaïs, Dadet, Sylvain, Guiyedi, Vincent, Farigon, Nicolas, Guiguet-Auclair, Candy, Berland, Pauline, Bohatier, Jérôme, Boirie, Yves, and Gerbaud, Laurent

Abstract

Handgrip strength is a valid and clinically practicable test, for screening early-onset sarcopenia during hospitalisation.Handgrip strength cut-off values of 18 kg in women and 25.5 kg in men gave 92.9% and 78.6% sensitivity, respectively.One-third of patients admitted to acute care wards have sarcopenia.

Published
2024
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48. Injectionless Acoustic-Noise-Based PMSM Sensorless Control Using RCPLL for Improved Estimation Performance

Author

Malekipour, Amirhossein, Corne, Adrien, Garbuio, Lauric, Granjon, Pierre, and Gerbaud, Laurent

Abstract

This article introduces an injectionless approach for acoustic-noise-based sensorless control of the permanent magnet synchronous machine. Replacing the high-frequency injection, the pulsewidth modulation (PWM) voltages are used as the basis for the method implementation. The mathematical model of PWM with considering the deadtime effect is first presented. Then, its impact upon the harmonics of current, magnetic fields, and generated radial forces is detailed. It is experimentally verified that in the presence of deadtime, unlike the contaminated current profile, there are merely specific-order speed-dependent components appeared in the acoustic noise spectrum, which is a clear bonus for signal processing precision and estimation performance. Moreover, a novel phase-locked loop (PLL) topology comprising a resonant-controller-based feedforward compensation block (RCPLL) is proposed. This compensation block is integrated within the PLL, by which the extra harmonics in the PLL error are directly suppressed, and therefore, the estimation performance is noticeably enhanced. The robustness of the proposed sensorless algorithm, alone, is verified experimentally under different conditions, and then, the estimation performances with and without the proposed RCPLL are compared.

Published
2024
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