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Abstract: Winter can be a critical time on many rivers, during which ice conditions and a number of environmental factors can lead to rapidly developing and damaging flood events. Also, [...]

Ice jam release surges present a unique challenge to the flood forecaster, since the surge released when an ice jam fails is highly dynamic in nature and, therefore, traditional hydrologic flood routing techniques are inapplicable. The problem is analogous to the classic dam break scenario and should be amenable to analysis by hydraulic flood routing techniques. However, previous investigations suggest that the influence of ice on the wave propagation and attenuation must also be considered to achieve accurate results. This study explores the applicability of dynamic hydraulic flow modeling techniques to the ice jam surge propagation problem, presenting the results of numerical simulations of the ice jam release event which occurred on the Saint John River upstream of Grand Falls, N.B., in April 1993. The surge propagation analysis was conducted using a one-dimensional finite element implementation of the Saint Venant equations adapted for natural channel geometries. Even neglecting ice effects, the resulting model is successful in terms of reproducing the observed peak stage and the surge propagation speed. Based on these results, it is concluded that accurate channel geometry is a key factor in effectively modeling ice jam release surge events. CE Database keywords: Ice jams; Surge; Flood forecasting; Dynamic models.

A review and comparison of two numerical ice jam profile models is provided. The first is the RIVJAM model, developed at the National Water Research Institute in Canada. The second is the ICEJAM model, which was developed at the University of Alberta and which forms the basis of the solution algorithm in the ice jam calculation routine recently implemented in HEC-RAS. Both the RIVJAM and ICEJAM models solve an ice jam stability equation in conjunction with one-dimensional, steady, gradually varied flow, and both have the capacity to compute profiles for equilibrium and nonequilibrium ice jams. The focus of the investigation is to compare the analytical equations solved, the numerical solution approaches, the required boundary conditions, and the relative sensitivity of the models' calibration parameters. Similarities between the models' governing equations and solution techniques are illustrated through direct comparison of the analytical equations and through model application. Differences between the models' boundary conditions and relative success of calibration are illustrated through the application to case studies.

In northern riverside communities, breakup ice jam flooding is an annual threat to properties and human lives. In this study, the peak snowmelt runoff during breakup was assessed as an indicator of breakup flood severity. Due to the sparse network of hydrometeorolocial data in remote northern regions, a Mamdani-type fuzzy logic system (FLS) was developed and tested with the limited historical data. Three input variables were defined from the precipitation, air temperature and daily water level data. All of these variables are known ~3 to 4 weeks before breakup enabling a long lead-time forecast. The process of system development is demonstrated by a case study of the Town of Hay River, NWT Canada. A series of experiments were designed to select the best system configuration, which also provided a way to conduct a sensitivity analysis for different choices in each system component. It was found that the system shows very good performance on the historical data using the qualitative error index. The results of the sensitivity analysis suggest the system performance is dependent on the choices of fuzzy logic inference operators and defuzzification method. As a long lead system, the short-term meteorological factors that would affect the system output were analyzed and the possible error range was assessed. Preliminary model validation, based on three years of testing, shows promising performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]