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A 30-year (1980–2010) climatology of the major variables and terms of the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) momentum and thermodynamic equations is constructed by using four global atmospheric reanalyses: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2); the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim); and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). Both the reanalysis ensemble mean (REM) and the differences in each reanalysis from the REM are investigated in the latitude–pressure domain for December–January–February and for June–July–August. For the REM investigation, two residual vertical velocities (the original one and one evaluated from residual meridional velocity) and two mass streamfunctions (from meridional and vertical velocities) are compared. Longwave (LW) radiative heating and shortwave (SW) radiative heating are also shown and discussed. For the TEM equations, the residual terms are also calculated and investigated for their potential usefulness, as the residual term for the momentum equation should include the effects of parameterized processes such as gravity waves, while that for the thermodynamic equation should indicate the analysis increment. Inter-reanalysis differences are investigated for the mass streamfunction, LW and SW heating, the two major terms of the TEM momentum equation (the Coriolis term and the Eliassen–Palm flux divergence term), and the two major terms of the TEM thermodynamic equation (the vertical temperature advection term and the total diabatic heating term). The spread among reanalysis TEM momentum balance terms is around 10 % in Northern Hemisphere winter and up to 50 % in Southern Hemisphere winter. The largest uncertainties in the thermodynamic equation (about 50 %) are found in the vertical advection, for which the structure is inconsistent with the differences in heating. The results shown in this paper provide basic information on the degree of agreement among recent reanalyses in the stratosphere and upper troposphere in the TEM framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 30-year (1980–2010) climatology of the major variables and terms of the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) momentum and thermodynamic equations is constructed by using four global atmospheric reanalyses, MERRA-2, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, and CFSR. Both the reanalysis ensemble mean (REM) and the differences of each reanalysis from the REM are investigated in the latitude-pressure domain for December-January-February and for June-July-August. For the REM investigation, two residual vertical velocities (the original one and one evaluated from residual meridional velocity) and two mass streamfunctions (from meridional and vertical velocities) are compared, and longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) radiative heatings are also shown and discussed. For the TEM equations, the residual terms are also calculated and investigated for their potential usefulness, as the residual term for the momentum equation should include the effects of parameterised processes such gravity waves, while that for the thermodynamic equation should indicate the analysis increment. Inter-reanalysis differences are investigated for the mass streamfunction, LW and SW heatings, the two major terms of the TEM momentum equation (the Coriolis term and the Elliassen-Palm flux divergence term), and the two major terms of the TEM thermodynamic equation (the vertical temperature advection term and the total diabatic heating term). The spread among reanalysis TEM momentum balance terms is around 10 % in Northern-Hemisphere winter and up to 50 % in Southern-Hemisphere winter. The largest uncertainties in the thermodynamic equation (about 50 %) are found in the vertical advection, which does not show a structure consistent with the differences in heatings. The results shown in this paper provide basic information on the degree of agreement among recent reanalyses in the stratosphere and in the upper troposphere in the TEM framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani (corresponding author) [1]; Kevin Hamilton [2] The zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere switches between prevailing easterlies and westerlies with a period of about 28 months [1]. [...]

The relative roles of atmospheric motions on various scales, from mesoscale to planetary scale, in transport and mixing in the extratropical tropopause region are investigated using a high-vertical-resolution general circulation model (GCM). The GCM with a vertical resolution of about 300 m explicitly represents the propagation and breaking of gravity waves and the induced transport and mixing. A downward control calculation shows that the Eliassen--Palm (E-P) flux of the gravity waves diverges and induces a mean equatorward flow in the extratropical tropopause region, which differs from the mean poleward flow induced by the convergence of large-scale E-P fluxes. The diffusion coefficients estimated from the eddy potential vorticity flux in tropopause-based coordinates reveal that isentropic motions diffuse air between 20 K below and 10 K above the tropopause from late autumn to early spring, while vertical mixing is strongly suppressed at around 10-15 K above the tropopause throughout the year. The isentropic mixing is mainly caused by planetary- and synoptic-scale motions, while small-scale motions with a horizontal scale of less than a few thousand kilometers largely affect the three-dimensional mixing just above the tropopause. Analysis of the gravity wave energy and atmospheric instability implies that the small-scale dynamics associated with the dissipation and saturation of gravity waves is a significant cause of the three-dimensional mixing just above the tropopause. A rapid increase in the static stability in the tropopause inversion layer is considered to play an important role in controlling the gravity wave activity around the tropopause. DOI: 10.1175/2009JAS3334.1

A high-vertical-resolution general circulation model (GCM) output has been analyzed to clarify transport and mixing processes in the extratropical tropopause region. The high-resolution GCM, with a vertical resolution of about 300 m above the extratropical upper troposphere, allows simulation of fine atmospheric structures near the tropopause, such as the extratropical tropopause transition layer (ExTL) and the tropopause inversion layer (TIL). The high-resolution GCM realistically simulates fine thermal and dynamic structures in the extratropical tropopause region. The thickness and maximum stability of the simulated TIL are consistent with observations. The high-resolution output was analyzed using a zonal mean potential vorticity (PV) equation to identify dominant transport processes in the extratropical tropopause region. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during winter, mean downward advection sharpens the PV gradient between the tropopause and 20 K below it, whereas latitudinal variation in isentropic mixing sharpens the vertical PV gradient between the tropopause and 10 K above it. During summer, vertical mixing substantially sharpens the vertical PV gradient at 10-25 K above the tropopause. These sharpening effects may be strongly related to the formation mechanisms of strong concentration gradients of chemical tracers around the ExTL. Mechanisms of evolution of the TIL are also discussed by analyzing a thermodynamic equation. Downward heat advection and radiation processes primarily determine the seasonality of the TIL. The analysis results suggest that the locations of the TIL and the ExTL can be similar because of common dynamic processes and interactions between constituent distributions and thermal structure. DOI: 10.1175/2009JAS3221.1

Three-dimensional wave forcing of simulated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is investigated using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with T213L256 resolution (60-km horizontal and 300-m vertical resolution). In both the eastward and westward wind shear phases of the QBO, nearly all Eliassen--Palm flux (EP flux) divergence due to internal inertia--gravity waves (defined as fluctuations with zonal wavenumber [greater than or equal to]12) results from the divergence of the vertical component of the flux. On the other hand, EP flux divergence due to equatorial trapped waves (EQWs) results from both the meridional and vertical components of the flux in regions of strong vertical wind shear. Longitudinal dependence of wave forcing is also investigated by three-dimensional wave activity flux applicable to gravity waves. Near the top of the Walker circulation, strong eastward (westward) wave forcing occurs in the Eastern (Western) Hemisphere due to internal inertia--gravity waves with small horizontal phase speed. In the eastward wind shear zone associated with the QBO, the eastward wave forcing due to internal inertia--gravity waves in the Eastern Hemisphere is much larger than that in the Western Hemisphere, whereas in the westward wind shear zone, westward wave forcing does not vary much in the zonal direction. Zonal variation of wave forcing in the stratosphere results from (i) zonal variation of wave sources, (ii) the vertically sheared zonal winds associated with the Walker circulation, and (iii) the phase of the QBO. DOI: 10.1175/2009JAS3223.1

The roles of equatorial trapped waves (EQWs) and internal inertia-gravity waves in driving the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are investigated using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with T213L256 resolution (60-km horizontal and 300-m vertical resolution) integrated for three years. The model, which does not use a gravity wave drag parameterization, simulates a QBO. Although the simulated QBO has a shorter period than that of the real atmosphere, its amplitudes and structure in the lower stratosphere are fairly realistic. The zonal wavenumber/frequency spectra of simulated outgoing longwave radiation represent realistic signals of convectively coupled EQWs. Clear signals of EQWs are also seen in the stratospheric wind components. In the eastward wind shear of the QBO, eastward EQWs including Kelvin waves contribute up to ~25%-50% to the driving of the QBO. The peaks of eastward wave forcing associated with EQWs and internal inertia--gravity waves occur at nearly the same time at the same altitude. On the other hand, westward EQWs contribute up to ~10% to driving the QBO during the weak westward wind phase but make almost zero contribution during the relatively strong westward wind phase. Extratropical Rossby waves propagating into the equatorial region contribute ~10%-25%, whereas internal inertia--gravity waves with zonal wavelength [??]1000 km are the main contributors to the westward wind shear phase of the simulated QBO. DOI: 10.1175/2009JAS3222.1

The Quasi‐biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere‐troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific‐sector subtropical jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the stratospheric waves in models participating in phase 1 of the Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi). All models have robust Kelvin and mixed Rossby‐gravity wave modes in winds and temperatures at 50 hPa and represent them better than most of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. There is still some spread among the models, especially concerning the mixed Rossby‐gravity waves. We attribute the variability in equatorial waves among the QBOi models in part to the varying horizontal and vertical resolutions, to systematic biases in zonal winds, and to the considerable variability in convectively coupled waves in the troposphere among the models: only roughly half of the QBOi models have realistic convectively coupled Kelvin waves and only a few models have convectively coupled mixed Rossby‐gravity waves. The models with stronger convectively coupled waves tend to produce larger zonal mean forcing due to resolved waves in the QBO region. Finally we evaluate the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux and EP flux divergence of the resolved waves in the QBOi models. We find that there is a large spread in the forcing from resolved waves in the QBO region, and the resolved wave forcing has a robust correlation with model vertical resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A multi‐model study is carried out to investigate the ability of models to predict the evolution of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) up to 12 months in advance. All models are initialised from common reanalysis data, and forecasts run for a common set of 30 start dates over 15 years. All models have high skill in predicting the phase evolution of the QBO at 20–30 hPa, with slightly more variable results at higher and lower levels. Other aspects of the predicted QBO are of variable quality, and in some cases are consistently poor. QBO easterlies are too weak in all models at 20–50 hPa, while westerlies can be either too strong or too weak. This results in both a reduced amplitude of the QBO and a westerly bias in zonal‐mean winds, notably at 30 hPa. At 70 hPa models tend to have reduced QBO amplitude and an easterly bias. Despite these failings, a multi‐model ensemble of bias‐ and variance‐corrected forecasts can be used to give accurate and reliable QBO forecasts up to at least a year ahead. Analysis of the zonal momentum budget during the first month of the forecast shows that large‐scale forcing from Eliassen–Palm flux divergence and vertical advection are handled fairly well by the models, although vertical advection terms tend to be weaker than reanalysis estimates. Total tendencies show common errors, suggesting common failings in gravity‐wave drag treatments. Teleconnections from the QBO to Northern Hemisphere winter circulation are also examined, and do not appear to be realistic beyond the first month. Analysis of initialised forecasts is a powerful tool for diagnosing the accuracy of model processes driving the QBO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compare the response of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) to a warming climate in eleven atmosphere general circulation models that performed time‐slice simulations for present‐day, doubled, and quadrupled CO2 climates. No consistency was found among the models for the QBO period response, with the period decreasing by 8 months in some models and lengthening by up to 13 months in others in the doubled CO2 simulations. In the quadrupled CO2 simulations, a reduction in QBO period of 14 months was found in some models, whereas in several others the tropical oscillation no longer resembled the present‐day QBO, although it could still be identified in the deseasonalized zonal mean zonal wind timeseries. In contrast, all the models projected a decrease in the QBO amplitude in a warmer climate with the largest relative decrease near 60 hPa. In simulations with doubled and quadrupled CO2, the multi‐model mean QBO amplitudes decreased by 36 and 51%, respectively. Across the models the differences in the QBO period response were most strongly related to how the gravity wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity responded to the increases in CO2 amounts. Likewise it was found that the robust decrease in QBO amplitudes was correlated across the models to changes in vertical residual velocity, parametrized gravity wave momentum fluxes, and to some degree the resolved upward wave flux. We argue that uncertainty in the representation of the parameterized gravity waves is the most likely cause of the spread among the eleven models in the QBO's response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]