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The rate of construction of nuclear reactors in the world that supply energy, the geopolitical situation such as with North Korea, Iran, and the rising tensions between the world powers raise the question of whether and when a large nuclear incident xviii occur. However, after examining several references scenarios for dealing with civil nuclear events and compering them to data obtained from interviews, a careful analysis of previous events, and investigating accidents, it is clear that the current models cannot deal properly ivith those events. The current plans for coping with nuclear accidents address only partial aspects of disaster management, do not offer accurate description of unfolding events, ignore newly obtain scientific data, and ignore the human factor in decision making level. The current paper will review why Reference Scenario to nuclear incidents accepted currently in various countries around the world are not up to date and shed light on the most critical aspect in proper nuclear disaster management--rational thinking pattern. The suggested model presented at this article, ONDM, is an innovative new mechanism and a more effective preparedness mechanism for nuclear disaster, as it takes under consideration past mistakes and provides tools for leaders to make informed decisions under conditions of uncertainty Keywords: Disaster Preparedness, ONDM, Nuclear Event, Risk analysis assessment, Civil defense., 1. Introduction Nuclear disaster preparedness is an aspect that caught the attention of the world after the Fukushima disaster in 2011, when it was discovered that despite the design of [...]

We aimed for a quantitative evaluation that justifies guidelines for evacuation which take into consideration both the human and economic costs. To the best of our knowledge, such an evaluation has not been performed yet. The present guidelines published by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are probably based on averting radiation risk only; IAEA did not cite any quantitative estimation of the human cost of evacuation. Quantitative estimation of the human and monetary costs of evacuation and, alternatively, the human and monetary costs of radiation exposure (non-evacuation). Associating human life with monetary value is psychologically difficult and somewhat challenging ethically; however, there is no escape from such an association (cost-effectiveness analysis) when making decisions regarding public health and safety, since extraneous public expenditures lead to a statistical life shortening. Estimating worst-case health consequences of irradiation, we used the conservative linear no-threshold (LNT) model because this model is widely used in spite of its controversy. In our estimation of the human cost of evacuation, we considered three factors: (a) direct loss of life (after Fukushima, 1% of the evacuees died within 2 years due to causes directly related to their evacuation), (b) loss of quality of life, and (c) loss of wealth leading to loss of life. The connection of economic loss with loss of life was performed according to the median cost-effectiveness threshold of 50–100 thousand USD per quality-adjusted life year. Even according to mortality calculations based on LNT, the overall loss of life due to evacuation is higher than the loss of life due to irradiation if the population-averaged first-year radiation dose is 500 mSv or less. Based on the performed analysis, we suggest avoiding evacuation if the projected first-year dose is below 500 mSv. This suggested action level is about five-fold higher than the action level presently recommended by the IAEA (100 mSv per year). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current article describes research about large nuclear events that occurred around the world, key failures that led to defective handling, presents the need f or better preparedness than currently exists and how this can be provided using the ONDM model. The Operational Nuclear Defense Model - ONDM is a model that can be applied to cope with nuclear disasters around the world at a policy making level in the area of CBRNE Defense (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosive materials). In this case, a nuclear event refers to a large scale nuclear incident rated at the highest level (6-7 in the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale - INES) caused by bombing, malfunction, terrorist act or natural disaster that demands treatment and a public response on a governmental level. A study of previous incidents teaches us that there were recurring failures in dealing with nuclear events, and even reveals that lessons have not yet been learned from past events and current preparedness for future events is lacking. This in contrast to a greater need for preparedness in these tense times. This research revealed critical failures, which are responded to in the developed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]