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Water infiltration into fractures is ubiquitous in crustal rocks. However, little is known about how such a progressive wetting process affects fracture stiffness and seismic wave propagation, which are highly relevant for characterizing fracture systems in situ. We study the acousto‐mechanical behavior of a free‐standing fractured granite subjected to gradual water infiltration with a downward‐moving wetting front over 12 days. We observe significant differences (i.e., by an order of magnitude) in wave amplitudes across the fractured granite compared to an intact granite, with both cases showing a strong correlation between wave amplitudes and wetting front movement. Effects of water infiltration into the fracture and surrounding matrix on seismic attenuation are captured by a numerical model with parameters constrained by experimental data. Back‐calculated fracture stiffness decreases exponentially with the wetting front migration along the fracture. We propose that moisture‐induced matrix expansion around the fracture increases asperity mismatch, leading to reduced fracture stiffness. Plain Language Summary: In the shallow layers of the Earth, hydrological cycles such as snowmelt, fog, dew, and rain have been shown to change the moisture content of crustal rocks, which can alter the elastic properties of natural fractures and affect the propagation of seismic waves. Understanding how seismic waves propagate in the near‐surface environment is crucial for the assessment of earthquake hazards and the characterization of geologic heterogeneities. In this work, we perform well‐controlled laboratory experiments to study the acousto‐mechanical behavior of a single fracture in granitic rock subjected to progressive wetting over 12 days. We report that the fracture stiffness decreases exponentially as the wetting front advances along the fracture. Our research sheds light on an important question in fracture characterization: how elastic waves propagate across a fracture undergoing moisture‐induced expansion. Key Points: A laboratory study establishes a relationship among water imbibition, seismic attenuation, and stiffness evolution in a wetted fractureWave amplitudes across a fracture correlate strongly with the wetting front movement of infiltrated water within the fractureFracture stiffness exponentially decreases with the advance of the wetting front along the fracture [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present and analyze a rockfall catalog from an active landslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls of the Swiss Alps, collected with a new Doppler radar system. This radar system provides a complete and continuous time series of rockfall events with volumes of 1 m 3 and greater since 2018 and serves as automatic traffic control for an important main road. In the period between January 2018 and October 2022, 6743 events were detected, which is 2 orders of magnitude higher activity than in stable continental cliffs. A few percent of all rockfall events reached the shadow area, which hosts an important road and agricultural area. The Doppler radar data set allows us to investigate the triggering factors quantitatively. We found that the background rockfall activity is controlled by seasonal climatic triggers. In winter, more rockfalls are observed during thawing periods, whereas in summer the rockfall activity increases with hourly rainfall intensity. We also found that, due to the geological setting in an active landslide complex, increased rockfall activity occurs clustered in space and time, triggered by local displacement hotspots. Thus, monitoring spatial and temporal variations of slope displacement velocity is crucial for detailed rockfall hazard assessment in similar geological settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present and analyze a rockfall catalog from an active landslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls of the Swiss Alps, collected with a new Doppler radar system. This radar system provides a complete and continuous time-series of rockfall events with volumes of 1m3 and bigger since 2018 and serves as automatic traffic control for an important cantonal road. In the period between January 2018 and September 2022, 6743 events were detected, which is two orders of magnitude higher activity than in stable continental cliffs. A few percent of all rockfall events reached the shadow zone, which hosts an important road and agricultural area. The Doppler radar data set allows us to investigate the triggering factors quantitatively. We found that the background rockfall activity is controlled by seasonal climatic triggers. In winter, more rockfalls are observed during thawing periods, whereas in summer the rockfall activity increases with hourly rainfall intensity. We also found that due to the geological setting in an active landslide complex, increased rockfall activity occurs clustered in space and time, triggered by local displacement hotspots. Thus, monitoring spatial and temporal variations of slope displacement velocity is crucial for detailed rockfall hazard assessment in similar geological settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Catastrophic landslides characterized by runaway slope failures remain difficult to predict. Here, we develop a physics‐based framework to prospectively assess slope failure potential. Our method builds upon the physics of extreme events in natural systems: the extremes so‐called "dragon‐kings" (e.g., slope tertiary creeps prior to failure) exhibit statistically different properties than other smaller‐sized events (e.g., slope secondary creeps). We develop statistical tools to detect the emergence of dragon‐kings during landslide evolution, with the secondary‐to‐tertiary creep transition quantitatively captured. We construct a phase diagram characterizing the detectability of dragon‐kings against "black‐swans" and informing on whether the slope evolves toward a catastrophic or slow landslide. We test our method on synthetic and real data sets, demonstrating how it might have been used to forecast three representative historical landslides. Our method can in principle considerably reduce the number of false alarms and identify with high confidence the presence of true hazards of catastrophic landslides. Plain Language Summary: Catastrophic slope failures that pose great threats to life and property remain difficult to predict due to the strong variability of slope behavior. As a result, only a limited number of large rock slope failures have been so far successfully forecasted with associated risks mitigated. Here, we propose a novel predictive framework to prospectively and quantitatively detect slope failure precursors with high confidence. Our research sheds light on one of the most challenging questions in landslide prediction: Would an active landslide slowly move or catastrophically fail in the future? Our method adds a new conceptual framework and operational methodology with a significant potential to support existing early warning systems and hence reduce landslide risks. Key Points: Tertiary creeps of catastrophic landslides accommodate dragon‐kings showing statistically different properties than secondary slope creepsA predictive framework is developed to forecast catastrophic landslides by detecting signatures typical of the emergence of dragon‐kingsA phase diagram characterizes the detectability of dragon‐kings against black‐swans and discriminates catastrophic and slow landslides [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rock slope failures often result from progressive rock mass damage which accumulates over long timescales. In deglaciating environments, rock slopes are affected by stress perturbations driven by mechanical unloading due to ice downwasting and concurrent changes in thermal and hydraulic boundary conditions. Since in‐situ data are rare, the different processes and their relative contribution to slope damage remain poorly understood. Here, we analyze borehole monitoring data from a rock slope adjacent to the retreating Great Aletsch Glacier (Switzerland) and compare it to englacial water levels, climate data, and decreasing ice levels. Rock slope pore pressures show a seasonal signal controlled by infiltration events as well as effects from the connectivity to the englacial hydrological system. We find that reversible and irreversible strains are driven by: (a) hydromechanical effects caused by englacial pressure fluctuations and infiltration events, (b) stress transfer related to changing mechanical glacial loads from short‐term englacial water level fluctuations and longer term ice downwasting, and (c) thermomechanical effects from annual temperature cycles penetrating the shallow subsurface, which primarily result in reversible deformation. We relate most observed irreversible strain (damage) to mechanical unloading from ice downwasting. Damage is strongest directly at the ice margin and moves through the slope at the pace of glacial retreat and advance. Locations with many retreat/advance cycles are very sensitive to landslide formation. The current climate warming impacts very sensitive valley sectors, which is confirmed by landslide distributions and activity in the study area. Plain Language Summary: The formation of rock slope instabilities is a long‐term process related to continuous rock mass weakening. For rock slopes in glaciated valleys, increased rates of rock mass damage are assumed to occur during ice retreat due to a reduction of the glacier weight and concurrent changes in rock temperatures and slope groundwater pressures. However, because direct field measurements are missing, governing processes and their relative importance are still poorly understood. Here, we analyze borehole monitoring data and compare it to englacial water levels, climate data, and decreasing ice levels. We find that the glacial hydrology influences the dynamics of the groundwater pressures in the adjacent rock slope at various timescales. We record micrometer‐scale reversible (elastic) deformation and irreversible rock mass damage and identify the involved drivers. Several processes contribute to progressive rock mass weakening at different timescales and magnitudes, but most damage is related to mechanical unloading from ice downwasting and is strongest directly at the ice margin. Locations with many retreat/advance cycles are sensitive to increased damage accumulation and landslide formation. The current climate warming impacts very sensitive valley sectors, which is confirmed by landslide distributions and activity in the study area. Key Points: We monitored subsurface pore pressures and micrometer scale strain in a rock slope during strong glacial retreat caused by climate warmingWe identified thermo‐hydro‐mechanical drivers for reversible deformation and irreversible rock mass damage acting at various timescalesSlope damage intensity can be related to landslide spatial and temporal distribution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In deglaciating environments, rock mass weakening and potential formation of rock slope instabilities is driven by long-term and seasonal changes in thermal- and hydraulic-boundary conditions, combined with unloading due to ice melting. However, in-situ observations are rare. In this study, we present new monitoring data from three highly instrumented boreholes, and numerical simulations to investigate rock slope temperature evolution and micrometer-scale deformation during deglaciation. Our results show that the subsurface temperatures are adjusting to a new, warmer surface temperature following ice retreat. Heat conduction is identified as the dominant heat transfer process at sites with intact rock. Observed non-conductive processes are related to groundwater exchange with cold subglacial water, snowmelt infiltration, or creek water infiltration. Our strain data shows that annual surface temperature cycles cause thermoelastic deformation that dominate the strain signals in the shallow thermally active layer at our stable rock slope locations. At deeper sensors, reversible strain signals correlating with pore pressure fluctuations dominate. Irreversible deformation, which we relate with progressive rock mass damage, occurs as short-term (hours to weeks) strain events and as slower, continuous strain trends. The majority of the short-term irreversible strain events coincides with precipitation events or pore pressure changes. Longer-term trends in the strain time series and a minority of short-term strain events cannot directly be related to any of the investigated drivers. We propose that the observed increased damage accumulation close to the glacier margin can significantly contribute to the long-term formation of paraglacial rock slope instabilities during multiple glacial cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new inventory of large rock slope instabilities and an extensive structural data set for northwestern Bhutan. Our data set is largely based on satellite observations, such as optical images and high‐resolution digital surface models, complemented with field observations. Kinematic analyses over seven different structural domains recognized in the study region were carried out to investigate structural control over the landslide distribution at a regional scale. In order to account for the sampling heterogeneity in the different data sets, a weighting system to the structural data is proposed. The results show that structural control exists in five out of seven domains, with foliation strongly influencing the sliding mechanisms. A lithological control appears also evident, with sedimentary rocks showing the highest landslide densities in the region. This study demonstrates how methodologies built on remote sensing data are suitable to investigate landslide predisposition at regional scales especially in largely inaccessible areas. Key Points: Rock slope instabilities and structural inventories for NW Bhutan based on optical images and high‐resolution DSMWeighting system applied to the data set improves its reliability and the assessment of limitationsLarge‐scale kinematic analyses for rock slope instabilities reveal structural control over a large part of the study region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subglacial water pressures influence groundwater conditions in proximal alpine valley rock slopes, varying with glacier advance and retreat in parallel with changing ice thickness. Fluctuating groundwater pressures in turn increase or reduce effective joint normal stresses, affecting the yield strength of discontinuities. Here we extend simplified assumptions of glacial debuttressing to investigate how glacier loading cycles together with changing groundwater pressures generate rock slope damage and prepare future slope instabilities. Using hydromechanical coupled numerical models closely based on the Aletsch Glacier valley in Switzerland, we simulate Late Pleistocene and Holocene glacier loading cycles including long‐term and annual groundwater fluctuations. Measurements of transient subglacial water pressures from ice boreholes in the Aletsch Glacier ablation area, as well as continuous monitoring of bedrock deformation from permanent Global Navigation Satellite Systems stations, help verify our model assumptions. While purely mechanical glacier loading cycles create only limited rock slope damage in our models, introducing a fluctuating groundwater table generates substantial new fracturing. Superposed annual groundwater cycles increase predicted damage. The cumulative effects are capable of destabilizing the eastern valley flank of our model in toppling‐mode failure, similar to field observations of active landslide geometry and kinematics. We find that hydromechanical fatigue is most effective acting in combination with long‐term loading and unloading of the slope during glacial cycles. Our results demonstrate that hydromechanical stresses associated with glacial cycles are capable of generating substantial rock slope damage and represent a key preparatory factor for paraglacial slope instabilities. Plain Language Summary: Glacial melt produces large amounts of water keeping water pressures at the base of alpine glaciers high. This meltwater in turn influences the groundwater table in adjacent valley flanks. Water seeps into the subsurface through joints and faults reducing the strength of these discontinuities. In a glaciated alpine valley, the position of the glacier changes over time and the groundwater table changes in accordance. Meanwhile, seasonal infiltration from snowmelt raises and lowers the water table in valley flanks, creating measureable movements. These changes in groundwater can alter the strength of a rock mass and together with the changing ice load generate damage in the floors and walls of alpine valleys. This damage helps prepare future slope instabilities, creating fractures that may ultimately define a landslide failure surface. We present new data and models from the Great Aletsch Glacier in Switzerland exploring our hypothesis that groundwater‐glacier coupled interactions are an important mechanism generating damage in alpine valley rock slopes. Our results show that higher water pressures reduce the strength of rock discontinuities and can result in failure, especially as glaciers retreat. This mechanism is an important part of the strength and stress changes in valley slopes that accompany glacial cycles. Key Points: Subglacial water pressures in ablation areas are high and vary with ice thickness, affecting the groundwater table in adjacent valley flanksIncreasing groundwater pressure during glacier advance reduces effective stresses in joints, partly offsetting the increased ice loadHydromechanical coupled stresses during glacial cycles create and propagate fractures in rock slopes, preparing future instabilities [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Six hydraulic shearing experiments have been conducted in the framework of the In-situ Stimulation and Circulation experiment within a decameter-scale crystalline rock volume at the Grimsel Test Site, Switzerland. During each experiment one out of two different shear zone types were hydraulically reactivated. An extensive monitoring system of sensors recording seismicity, pressure and strain was spatially distributed in eleven boreholes around the injection locations. As a result of the stimulation, the near-wellbore transmissivity increased up to three orders in magnitude, while jacking pressures of the stimulated structures reduced during most of the experiments. Transmissivity change, jacking pressure and seismic activity were different for the two shear zone types, suggesting that the shear zone characteristics govern the seismo-hydro-mechanical response. The elevated fracture-fluid-pressures associated with the stimulations propagated mostly along the stimulated shear zones. The absence of high-pressure signals away from the injection point for most experiments (except two out of six experiments) is interpreted as channelized flow within the shear zones. The observed deformation field within 15 m-20 m from the injection point is characterized by variable extensional and compressive strain, produced by fracture normal opening and/or slip dislocation, as well as stress redistribution related to these processes. At greater distance from the injection location, strain measurements indicate a volumetric compressive zone, in which the strain magnitude decreases with increasing distance. This compressive strain signals are interpreted as a poro-elastic far-field response to the emplacement of fluid volume around the injection interval. The exceptional hydro-mechanical data reveal that the overall stimulation effected volume is significantly larger than implied by the seismicity cloud, and can be subdivided into a primary stimulated and secondary effected zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]