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Forestry projects participate in carbon markets by sequestering carbon dioxide equivalent (C[O.sub.2]e) and producing carbon offsets. The creation of forest-based offsets is guided by protocols that dictate how sequestered C[O.sub.2]e is converted into marketable offsets. Existing protocol designs aim to produce offsets that meet sustainability requirements, while providing financial incentives for landowner participation. However, limited Canadian uptake implies that current financial incentives are insufficient to encourage the production of carbon offsets via private landowners. Here we consider various design features of four protocols and their financial implications for an illustrative afforestation project in southern Ontario, Canada. We explore the protocols (two tonne-tonne protocols and two tonne-year protocols) under two afforestation project management systems ('no-harvest' and 'harvest' management scenarios). Results indicate that a project that terminates in a harvest is not economically attractive at current C[O.sub.2]e prices under any protocol design at a scale likely to be undertaken in southern Ontario, Canada. Projects that do not conclude in harvest are generally more attractive. Tonne-tonne protocols that pay upfront for sequestered C[O.sub.2]e improve the economic attractiveness of afforestation projects, but the delayed realization of the value of offset credits under tonne-year protocols reduces the economic attractiveness of these projects. We discuss these results in light of the choices facing afforestation project proponents and offset protocol designers (including governments) in general, and provide detailed insights into the financial dynamics of the Canadian case. Key words: forest carbon offset protocol, offset credits, afforestation, economic attractiveness, Ontario, Canada. Les projets forestiers contribuent aux marches du carbone en sequestrant de l'eq. C[O.sub.2] et en produisant des compensations carbone. La creation de compensations basees sur la foret est guidee par des protocoles qui dictent la maniere dont l'eq. C[O.sub.2] sequestre est converti en compensations commercialisables. La conception des protocoles vise a produire des compensations qui repondent aux exigences du developpement durable tout en offrant des incitatifs financiers pour encourager la participation des proprietaires fonciers. Cependant, la sequestration limitee au Canada signifie que les incitatifs financiers sont insuffisants pour encourager la production de compensations carbone par les proprietaires prives. Nous examinons ici differentes caracteristiques de conception en lien avec quatre protocoles et leurs implications financieres pour un projet de boisement dans le sud de l'Ontario au Canada. Nous analysons les protocoles (deux protocoles tonnetonne et deux protocoles tonne-annee) dans le cadre de deux systemes de gestion des projets de boisement (scenarios de gestion << sans recolte >> et << avec recolte >>). Les resultats demontrent qu'un projet qui se termine par une recolte n'est pas economiquement attrayant en fonction du prix actuel de l'eq. C[O.sub.2], quel que soit le protocole a l'echelle a laquelle il serait vraisemblablement entrepris dans le sud de l'Ontario. Les projets qui ne se terminent pas par une recolte sont generalement plus attrayants. Les protocoles tonne-tonne qui retribuent a l'avance l'eq. C[O.sub.2] sequestre ameliorent l'attrait economique des projets de boisement. Par contre, la realisation differee de la valeur des credits compensatoires dans le cadre des protocoles tonne-annee reduit l'attrait economique de ces projets. Nous discutons de ces resultats a la lumiere des choix auxquels sont confrontes les promoteurs de projets de boisement et les concepteurs de protocoles de compensation (incluant les gouvernements) en general et nous fournissons un apercu detaille de la dynamique financiere du cas du Canada. Mots-cles : protocole de compensation du carbone forestier, credits compensatoires, boisement, attrait economique, Ontario, Canada., 1. Introduction In the context of some emission reduction schemes--cap and trade markets, for example--polluters may purchase carbon offsets, a marketable credit representing carbon dioxide equivalent (C[O.sub.2]e) sequestration, to avoid [...]

In anticipation of growing wildfire management challenges, the Canadian government is investing in WildFireSat, an Earth observation satellite mission designed to collect data in support of Canadian wildfire management. Although costs of the mission can be reasonably estimated, the benefits of such an investment are unknown. Here we forecast the possible benefits of WildFireSat via an avoided cost approach. We consider five socio-economic components: suppression costs (fixed and variable), timber losses, property, asset and infrastructure losses, evacuation costs, and smoke related health costs. Using a Monte Carlo analysis, we evaluated a range of possible changes to these components based on expert opinions. The resulting Net Present Value (NPV) estimates depend on the presumed impact of using WildFireSat decision support data products, with pessimistic and conservative assumptions generating mission costs that typically exceed potential benefits by 1.16 to 1.59 times, while more optimistic assumptions generate benefits in excess of costs by 8.72 to 10.48 times. The analysis here excludes some possibly significant market and non-market impacts expected from WildFireSat due to data limitations; accounting for these additional impacts would likely generate positive NPVs under even cautious impact assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The burning of wood for bioenergy produces significant amounts of ash residue that requires disposal. We constructed a cost model to evaluate the unit costs of three ash disposal methods in the Canadian context: landfills owned and operated by the bioenergy facility, municipal landfills, and forest site application. The model accounts for costs related to the pretreatment, transportation, and disposal of ash at a landfill or forest site. Model parameter values were assigned appropriate distributions (based on published literature and industry surveys), and Monte Carlo simulations were employed to produce a range of model outputs for each disposal option. Results indicate that existing landfills (if available for ash disposal) are likely the most cost-effective option (median value of $77 per tonne), although applying ash to a forest site is only ~15%-20% more costly (median value of $92 per tonne). Indeed, the unit cost estimates across disposal options have considerable overlap. This suggests that close examination of firm-specific circumstances is highly warranted when choosing a disposal approach, even in the absence of accounting for potential environmental benefits associated with forest site disposal of ash. Key words: wood ash disposal, cost comparison, landfill disposal, forest application, Canada. La combustion du bois pour la bioenergie produit une quantite importante de cendre qui doit etre eliminee. Nous avons construit un modele de cout pour evaluer le cout unitaire de trois methodes d'elimination des cendres dans un contexte canadien, soit les sites d'enfouissement detenus et operes par l'industrie de la bioenergie, les sites d'enfouissement municipaux et l'epandage sur des sites forestiers. Le modele considere les couts lies au pretraitement, au transport et a l'elimination des cendres dans un site d'enfouissement ou un site forestier. Des distributions appropriees (selon la litterature et des enquetes aupres des industries) ont ete attribuees aux valeurs des parametres du modele et des simulations de Monte Carlo ont ete utilisees pour produire un eventail de resultats pour chaque option d'elimination. Les resultats indiquent que les sites d'enfouissement existants (a condition d'etre accessibles pour l'elimination des cendres) constituent vraisemblablement l'option la plus rentable (valeur mediane de 77 $ par tonne), bien que l'epandage des cendres sur un site forestier soit seulement environ 15 a 20 % plus couteux (valeur mediane de 92 $ par tonne). En fait, les couts unitaires estimes pour les diverses options d'elimination se chevauchent considerablement. Ceci porte a croire qu'un examen approfondi de la situation propre a chaque entreprise est plus que justifie pour choisir l'approche adequate d'elimination des residus, et ce meme sans tenir compte des benefices environnementaux potentiels associes a l'epandage des cendres sur un site forestier. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: elimination de la cendre de bois, comparaison des couts, site d'enfouissement, epandage en foret, Canada., Introduction The use of forest biomass to generate energy is expected to increase as governments aspire to phase out traditional fossil fuels and the demand for renewably sourced energy grows. [...]

The importance of human behavior in biodiversity conservation is widely recognized, but there is little published evidence about how conservation professionals make decisions when conservation values are at stake. We take a behavioral economics approach, administering simplified decision problems ("choice experiments"), questions about choice‐relevant preferences and views ("elicitation questions"), and a psychometric scale (the New Ecological Paradigm scale) to a difficult‐to‐recruit sample (n = 100) of Canadian professionals involved in managing Rangifer tarandus caribou (Woodland Caribou). Our choice experiments reveal the importance of several decision biases (risk aversion, commission bias, and a bias towards fairness) in this influential group of conservation stakeholders. We then examine in‐sample differences between categories of professional affiliation (e.g., resource industry, environmental nongovernmental organization, or federal/provincial government), finding significant variation in responses to one elicitation question (reference points) and in psychometric scores. We discuss the implications of our findings for choice in conservation practice and for multistakeholder conservation policy. Comparing our findings to prior work on choice under uncertainty in nonconservation contexts suggests a possible replication problem in applying behavioral science insights to conservation problems, pointing to the need for a systematic research program. Results from development testing with a convenience sample of university students are presented for comparison throughout the study. This is an experimental behavioral economics study of decision making among conservation professionals. It finds evidence of several important decision biases, as well as between‐group differences in worldview and environmental attitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Forestry Chronicle is the property of Canadian Institute of Forestry and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We present a model that maps the net present value (NPV) associated with planting black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton, Sterns & Poggenb.) and white pine (Pinus strobus L.) seed sources across a study area centred on Ontario, Canada. The model accounts for climate change through the use of universal response functions, which (in principle) predict the growth of any seed source under any climatic conditions. We demonstrated the use of the model for two locations in northern Ontario; both species exhibited significant variation in NPV across the study area and significant gains associated with climate-smart seed movements. For example, the NPV associated with potential white pine seed sources varied by more than $1500-[ha.sup.-1] for a planting site at North Bay, Ontario. We also compared the NPV maps with climate similarity maps to examine the degree to which simple climate matching can act as a proxy for the detailed genecology relationships contained in the universal response functions. Overall, the climate similarity maps were well-correlated with the NPV maps; however, there was poor agreement regarding white pine seed deployment from North Bay, for which the two approaches identified opposite seed transfer directions. We propose that this situation can arise when species show strong adaptation to a central climatic optimum. Key words: climate change, seed movements, assisted migration, universal response function, net present value, forest economics, climate similarity, Ontario. Nous presentons un modele qui produit une carte de la valeur actualisee nette (VAN) associee a la plantation de differentes provenances d'epicea noir (Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton, Sterns & Poggenb.) et de pin blanc (Pinus strobus L.) dans une aire d'etude centree sur l'Ontario, au Canada. Le modele tient compte du changement climatique en utilisant des fonctions de reponse universelle (FRU) qui, en principe, predisent la croissance de n'importe quelle provenance dans n'importe quelles conditions climatiques. Nous avons illustre l'utilisation du modele pour deux endroits dans le nord de l'Ontario; la variation de la VAN etait significative chez les deux especes a travers l'aire d'etude et il y avait des gains importants associes aux deplacements des semences en fonction du climat. Par exemple, la VAN associee aux provenances potentielles de pin blanc plantees dans une station a North Bay en Ontario variait de plus de 1500 $-[ha.sup.-1]. Nous avons aussi compare les cartes de la VAN aux cartes de similarite climatique pour verifier dans quelle mesure le fait de simplement tenir compte du climat pourrait remplacer les relations genecologiques detaillees contenues dans les FRU. Dans l'ensemble, les cartes de similarite climatique etaient bien correlees avec les cartes de la VAN. Cependant, il y avait une faible concordance concernant le deploiement des semences de pin blanc provenant de North Bay, alors que les deux approches proposaient des directions opposees pour le transfert des semences. Nous croyons que cette situation peut survenir lorsque qu'une espece montre une forte adaptation a un optimum climatique central. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : changement climatique, mouvements des semences, migration assistee, fonction de reponse universelle, valeur actualisee nette, economie forestiere, similarite climatique, Ontario., 1. Introduction Climate change is a significant concern for natural systems and the myriad of economic interests connected with them (Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) 2013). In the context [...]

Copyright of Forestry Chronicle is the property of Canadian Institute of Forestry and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper we provide an overview of an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts associated with non-indigenous forest pest species. This is a broad and important topic given the scale of ecological and economic consequences associated with non-indigenous species in North America and elsewhere. Assessments of risks and impacts remain difficult due to complexities and interactions between the many factors driving invasions and outcomes. These processes occur across various spatial and temporal scales, and are often influenced and complicated by human activities. For each component of an ecological invasion (i.e., arrival, establishment, and spread), we review general approaches for modelling the phenomenon and identify data and knowledge gaps. With the greater availability of various spatial data and computational power we suggest the possibility of linking the models for each invasion component into a more integrated framework, thus allowing interactions and feedbacks between components to be better incorporated into risk modelling efforts. The approach is illustrated using examples from current work with Sirex noctilio Fabricius--a relatively new invasive wood wasp in eastern North America. Key words: invasive species, integrated modelling, risk assessment, impact assessment, Sirex noctilio. Les auteurs presentent le survol d'une approche integree pour la modelisation des risques et des impacts associes aux pestes foreslieres non indigenes. II s'agit d'un sujet large et important, compte lenu de l'echelle el des consequences economiques associees aux especes non indigenes, en Amerique du Nord et ailleurs. Les evaluations de risques el d'impacis demeureni diffieiles a cause de la complexity el des inieraclions avec plusieurs facteurs responsables des invasions el de leurs consequences. Ces processus s'effectuent selon differences echelles spatio-temporelles, et sont souvent influences et compliques par les activites humaines. Pour chaque composante d'une invasion ecologique (c.-a-d. arrivee, etablissement et diffusion), les auteurs passent en revue les approches generates pour la modelisation du phenomene ainsi que I'identification des donnees et les manques de connaissance. Avec la disponibilite accrue de diverses donnees spatiales et des capacites informatiques, les auteurs suggerent la possibilite de lier les modeles de chaque composante dans un cadre plus integre, permettant ainsi de mieux incorporer les interactions et les retroactions entre les composantes dans les efforts de modelisation des risques. On illustre cette approche en utilisant des exemples provenant du travail actuel sur le Sirex noctilio Fabricius, une guepe perce-bois envahissante relativement nouvelle dans l'est de l'Amerique du Nord. Mots-cles : especes envahissantes, modelisation integree, evaluation des risques, evaluation des impacts, Sirex noctilio. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction The management of non-indigenous species is complex, but critical given potentially large economic and ecological impacts. Gross annual economic losses and control costs in agricultural and forestry sectors due [...]

This study presents a model that assesses the potential impact of a new alien insect species, Sirex noctilio Fabricius, on pine timber supply and harvest activities in eastern Canada. We integrate the spread of S. noctilio with a broad-scale growth and harvest allocation model. Projections of pine mortality range between 25 x 106 and 115 x 106 m3 over 20 years depending on S. noctilio spread and impact assumptions. Our model suggests Ontario could experience the highest, most immediate losses (78% of the potential losses across eastern Canada), with Quebec sustaining most of the rest of the losses over the next 20 years. Potential losses of $86 to $254 million per year are simulated after 20 years. The net present value of total harvest losses after 28 years of outbreak ranges between $0.7 to $2.1 billion. Adaptation policies decrease shortterm losses by 46%-55% and delay larger harvest failures by 9-11 years. Without harvest adaptation, failures to maintain annual allowable cut levels may occur once the total area infested exceeds 15 x 106 ha. While better understanding and representing S. noctilio behaviour will involve a significant effort, there is a strong demand by policy makers for this kind of information. Cette etude presente un modele qui evalue l'impact potentiel d'une nouvelle espece d'insecte exotique, Sirex noctilio Fabricius, sur les stocks de bois de pin et les activites de recolte dans l'est du Canada. Les auteurs ont integre la propagation de S. noctilio a un modele de croissance a grande echelle et d'allocation de la recolte. Les projections concernant la mortalite du pin varient de 25 x [10.sup.6] and 115 x [10.sup.6] sur 20 ans selon les hypotheses de propagation et d'impact de S. noctilio. Leur modele indique que l'Ontario pourrait subir les pertes les plus elevees tres tot (78 % des pertes potentielles de tout l'est du Canada) et le Quebec, presque toutes les pertes a venir au cours de la periode s'etendant sur les 20 prochaines annees. Les pertes annuelles pourraient atteindre 86-254 millions $ apres 20 ans. La valeur actualisee nette des pertes totales de recolte apres 28 annees d'epidemie varie de 0,7 a 2,1 milliards $. Des strategies d'adaptation diminueraient les pertes a court terme de 46-55 % et retarderaient les pires recoltes de 9-11 ans. Sans adaptation de la recolte, l'incapacite a maintenir les niveaux de possibilite annuelle de coupe pourrait survenir lorsque la superficie totale infestee depassera 15 x [10.sup.6] ha. Bien que d'importants efforts restent a faire pour mieux comprendre et representer le comportement de S. noctilio, il y a une forte demande de la part des decideurs pour ce type d'informations. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction The impact of alien invasive species on timber supply and harvest activities has been identified as one of the most immediate and potentially damaging threats to Canadian forests (Natural [...]

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global economic activity in all sectors, including forest industries. Changes in demand for forest products in North America over the course of the pandemic have affected both primary processors and downstream industries reliant on residues, including wood pellet producers. Wood pellets have become an internationally traded good, mostly as a substitute for coal in electricity generation, with a significant proportion of the global supply coming from Canadian producers. To determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Canadian wood pellet industry, economic and market data were evaluated, in parallel with a survey of Canadian manufacturers on their experiences during the first three waves of the pandemic (March 2020 to September 2021). Overall, the impact of the pandemic on the Canadian wood pellet industry was relatively small, as prices, exports, and production remained stable. Survey respondents noted some negative impacts, mostly in the first months of the pandemic, but the quick recovery of lumber production helped to reduce the impact on wood pellet producers and ensured a stable feedstock supply. The pandemic did exacerbate certain pre-existing issues, such as access to transportation services and labour availability, which were still a concern for the industry at the end of the third wave in Canada. These results suggest that the Canadian wood pellet industry was resilient to disruptions caused by the pandemic and was able to manage the negative effects it faced. This is likely because of the integrated nature of the forest sector, the industry's reliance on long-term supply contracts, and feedstock flexibility, in addition to producers and end-users both being providers of essential services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We have developed a spatial cost-benefit afforestation model that includes the tracking of five carbon pools. In this application we represent three possible afforestation strategies that could be implemented [...]

Abstract: We established 480 remeasurement plots in plantations originally laid out by F.W. von Althen in the 1970s and 1980s for his pioneering work on hardwood planting in southern Ontario. [...]