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26. Data-rich but model-resistant: an evaluation of data-limited methods to manage fisheries with failed age-based stock assessments

Author

Legault, Christopher M., Wiedenmann, John, Deroba, Jonathan J., Fay, Gavin, Miller, Timothy J., Brooks, Elizabeth N., Bell, Richard J., Langan, Joseph A., Cournane, Jamie M., Jones, Andrew W., and Muffley, Brandon

Subjects
Fish populations -- Measurement, Fishery management -- Methods, Earth sciences
Abstract

Age-based stock assessments are sometimes rejected by review panels due to large retrospective patterns. When this occurs, data-limited approaches are often used to set catch advice, under the assumption that these simpler methods will not be impacted by the problems causing retrospective patterns in the age-based assessment. This assumption has never been formally evaluated. Closed-loop simulations were conducted where a known source of error caused a retrospective pattern in an agebased assessment. Twelve data-limited methods, an ensemble of a subset of these methods, and a statistical catch-at-age model with retrospective adjustment were all evaluated to examine their ability to prevent overfishing and rebuild overfished stocks. Overall, none of the methods evaluated performed best across the scenarios. A number of methods performed consistently poorly, resulting in frequent and intense overfishing and low stock sizes. The retrospective adjusted statistical catch-at-age assessment performed better than a number of the alternatives explored. Thus, using a data-limited approach to set catch advice will not necessarily result in better performance than relying on the age-based assessment with a retrospective adjustment. Key words: closed-loop simulation, data-limited methods, management advice, retrospective analysis, Introduction In the US, age-based, integrated, fisheries stock assessment models are frequently used to estimate annual stock abundance (biomass), fishing mortality rates, and management reference points (Maunder and Punt 2013). [...]

Published
2023
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29. HST/COS Observations of Quasar Outflows in the 500-1050 \AA\ Rest Frame: III. Four Similar Outflows in 2MASS J1051+1247 with Enough Energy to be Major Contributors to AGN Feedback

Author

Miller, Timothy R., Arav, Nahum, Xu, Xinfeng, Kriss, Gerard A., and Plesha, Rachel J.

Subjects
Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies
Abstract

We detect four very energetic outflows in the Hubble Space Telescope/Cosmic Origin Spectrograph spectra of quasar 2MASS J1051+1247 with a combined kinetic luminosity ($\dot{E_k}$) of 10$^{46}$ erg s$^{-1}$. Remarkable similarities are seen in these outflows: velocity centroids between 4900 and 5700 km s$^{-1}$, distances from the central source ($R$) of a few hundred parsecs that are all consistent within the errors, and an $\dot{E_k}$ within a factor of two for all outflows. Hence, a common origin for the outflows is probable. Most of the outflowing mass resides in a very high-ionization phase evident by troughs from Ne VIII, Na IX, Mg X, and Si XII, which connect the physical conditions of these ultraviolet outflows to the X-ray warm absorber outflows seen in nearby Seyfert galaxies. Three of the outflows have two or three independent diagnostics for the electron number density, yielding consistent values for each outflow, which increase the robustness of the $R$ determinations. Troughs from never-before-seen ionic transitions of Ar VI, O IV*, Ne VI*, and Ne V* are identified. With a combined $\dot{E_k}$ that is $7.0^{+6.5}_{-2.3}$ % of the quasar's Eddington luminosity, these outflows are prime candidates to be major agents for various active galactic nuclei feedback effects., Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables

Published
2020
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31. Pain management and opioid stewardship in adult cardiac surgery: Joint consensus report of the PeriOperative Quality Initiative and the Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Cardiac Society

Author

Shaw, Andrew D., Engelman, Daniel, Mythen, Michael, Guinn, Nicole R., Aronson, Solomon, Schwartz, Jonathon, Arora, Rakesh C., Morton-Bailey, Vicky, Brudney, C. Scott, Bennett-Guerrero, Elliott, Reddy, V. Seenu, Guzzi, Lou, Brown, Jessica, Crisafi, Cheryl, Grant, Michael C., Chappell, Desiree, Gan, Tong J., Manning, Michael W., Miller, Timothy E., and Brodt, Jessica L.

Published
2023
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33. Psychology and Al at a Crossroads: How Might Complex Systems Explain Themselves?

Author

Hoffman, Robert R., Miller, Timothy, and Clancey, William J.

Subjects
Artificial intelligence -- Psychological aspects, Explanation -- Psychological aspects, Psychological research, Mental models -- Usage, Artificial intelligence, Psychology and mental health
Abstract

A challenge in building useful artificial intelligence (Al) systems is that people need to understand how they work in order to achieve appropriate trust and reliance. This has become a topic of considerable interest, manifested as a surge of research on Explainable Al (XAI). Much of the research assumes a model in which the Al automatically generates an explanation and presents it to the user, whose understanding of the explanation leads to better performance. Psychological research on explanatory reasoning shows that this is a limited model. The design of XAI systems must be fully informed by a model of cognition and a model of pedagogy, based on empirical evidence of what happens when people try to explain complex systems to other people and what happens as people try to reason out how a complex system works. In this article we discuss how and why C. S. Peirce's notion of abduction is a best model for XAI. Peirce's notion of abduction as an exploratory activity can be regarded as supported by virtue of its concordance with models of expert reasoning that have been developed by modern applied cognitive psychologists. KEYWORDS: abduction, Peirce, artificial intelligence, explanation, expert reasoning, training, Artificial intelligence (AI) systems are being applied ever more widely (e.g., helping corrections officers who have to make parole decisions helping financiers who decide about loan applications). A regulation posed [...]

Published
2022

39. Systematic reviews and consensus definitions for the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine (StEP) initiative: mortality, morbidity, and organ failure

Author

Myles, Paul, Gan, T.J., Kurz, Andrea, Peyton, Phil, Sessler, Dan, Tramèr, Martin, Cyna, Alan, De Oliveira, Gildasio S., Jr., Wu, Christopher, Jensen, Mark, Kehlet, Henrik, Botti, Mari, Boney, Oliver, Haller, Guy, Grocott, Mike, Cook, Tim, Fleisher, Lee, Neuman, Mark, Story, David, Gruen, Russell, Bampoe, Sam, Evered, Lis, Scott, David, Silbert, Brendan, van Dijk, Diederik, Kalkman, Cor, Chan, Matthew, Grocott, Hilary, Eckenhoff, Rod, Rasmussen, Lars, Eriksson, Lars, Beattie, Scott, Wijeysundera, Duminda, Landoni, Giovanni, Leslie, Kate, Biccard, Bruce, Howell, Simon, Nagele, Peter, Richards, Toby, Lamy, Andre, Lalu, Manoj, Pearse, Rupert, Mythen, Monty, Canet, Jaume, Moller, Ann, Gin, Tony, Schultz, Marcus, Pelosi, Paolo, Gabreu, Marcelo, Futier, Emmanuel, Creagh-Brown, Ben, Abbot, Tom, Klein, Andy, Corcoran, Tomas, Cooper, D. Jamie, Dieleman, Stefan, Diouf, Elisabeth, McIlroy, David, Bellomo, Rinaldo, Shaw, Andrew, Prowle, John, Karkouti, Keyvan, Billings, Josh, Mazer, David, Jayarajah, Mohindas, Murphy, Michael, Bartoszko, Justyna, Sneyd, Rob, Morris, Steve, George, Ron, Moonesinghe, Ramani, Shulman, Mark, Lane-Fall, Meghan, Nilsson, Ulrica, Stevenson, Nathalie, van Klei, Wilton, Cabrini, Luca, Miller, Tim, Jackson, Sandy, Buggy, Donal, Short, Tim, Riedel, Bernhard, Gottumukkala, Vijay, Pace, Nathan, Alkhaffaf, Bilal, Johnson, Mark, Jackson, Alexander I.R., Pearse, Rupert M., Cooper, D. James, van Klei, Wilton A., Miller, Timothy E., Moonesinghe, S. Ramani, Myles, Paul S., and Grocott, Michael P.W.

Published
2023
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47. Pain management, fluid therapy and thromboprophylaxis after pancreatoduodenectomy: a worldwide survey among surgeons

Author

Groen, Jesse V., Henrar, Rutger B., Hanna Sawires, Randa G., AlEassa, Essa, Martini, Chris H., Bonsing, Bert A., Vahrmeijer, Alexander L., Besselink, Marc G., Pecorelli, Nicolo, Hackert, Thilo, Ishizawa, Takeaki, Miller, Timothy, Mungroop, Timothy H., Samra, Jaswinder, Sauvanet, Alain, Adham, Mustapha, Demartines, Nicolas, Christophi, Chris, Morris-Stiff, Gareth, and Mieog, J. Sven D.

Published
2022
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50. The SOD1-mediated ALS phenotype shows a decoupling between age of symptom onset and disease duration

Author

Opie-Martin, Sarah, Iacoangeli, Alfredo, Topp, Simon D., Abel, Olubunmi, Mayl, Keith, Mehta, Puja R., Shatunov, Aleksey, Fogh, Isabella, Bowles, Harry, Limbachiya, Naomi, Spargo, Thomas P., Al-Khleifat, Ahmad, Williams, Kelly L., Jockel-Balsarotti, Jennifer, Bali, Taha, Self, Wade, Henden, Lyndal, Nicholson, Garth A., Ticozzi, Nicola, McKenna-Yasek, Diane, Tang, Lu, Shaw, Pamela J., Chio, Adriano, Ludolph, Albert, Weishaupt, Jochen H., Landers, John E., Glass, Jonathan D., Mora, Jesus S., Robberecht, Wim, Damme, Philip Van, McLaughlin, Russell, Hardiman, Orla, van den Berg, Leonard, Veldink, Jan H., Corcia, Phillippe, Stevic, Zorica, Siddique, Nailah, Silani, Vincenzo, Blair, Ian P., Fan, Dong-sheng, Esselin, Florence, de la Cruz, Elisa, Camu, William, Basak, Nazli A., Siddique, Teepu, Miller, Timothy, Brown, Robert H., Al-Chalabi, Ammar, and Shaw, Christopher E.

Published
2022
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