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Abstract The magnitude of earthquakes on continental normal faults rarely exceeds 7.0 Mw. However, because of their vicinity to large population centers they can be highly destructive. Long recurrence time, relatively small deformations, and limited observations hinder our understanding of the deformation patterns and mechanisms controlling the magnitude of events. Here, this problem is addressed with 2D thermomechanical modeling of normal fault seismic cycles. The 2020 Samos, Greece Mw7.0 earthquake is used as an example as it is one of the largest and most studied continental normal fault earthquakes. The modeling approach employs visco‐elasto‐plastic rheology, compressibility, free surface, and a rate‐and‐state friction law for the fault. Modeling of the Samos earthquake suggests the pore fluid pressure ratio on the fault ranges from 0 to 0.7. The model demonstrates that most of the deformation during interseismic and coseismic periods, besides on the fault, occurs in the hanging wall and footwall below the seismogenic part of the fault. The largest vertical surface displacement during the earthquake is the subsidence of the hanging wall in the vicinity of the fault, while the uplift of the footwall and remote part of the hanging wall is significantly smaller. Modeling of the seismic cycles on normal faults with different setups shows the dependency of the magnitude on the thermal profile and dipping angle of the fault; low heat flow and low dipping angle are favorable conditions for the largest events, while steep normal faults in the areas of high heat flow tend to have the smallest magnitudes.

Subduction initiation induced by a hot and buoyant mantle plume head is unique among proposed subduction initiation mechanisms because it does not require pre-existing weak zones or other forces for lithospheric collapse. Since recognition of the first evidence of subduction nucleation induced by a mantle plume in the Late Cretaceous Caribbean realm, the number of studies focusing on other natural examples has grown. Here, we review numerical and physical modeling and geological-geochemical studies which have been carried out thus far to investigate onset of a new subduction zone caused by impingement of a mantle plume head. As geological-geochemical data suggests that plume-lithosphere interactions have long been important - spanning from the Archean to the present - modeling studies provide valuable information on the spatial and temporal variations in lithospheric deformation induced by these interactions. Numerical and physical modeling studies, ranging from regional to global scales, illustrate the key role of plume buoyancy, lithospheric strength and magmatic weakening above the plume head on plume-lithosphere interactions. Lithospheric/crustal heterogeneities, pre-existing lithospheric weak zones and external compressional/extensional forces may also change the deformation regime caused by plume-lithosphere interaction.

Abstract Giant earthquakes with magnitudes above 8.5 occur only in subduction zones. Despite the developments made in observing large subduction zone earthquakes with geophysical instruments, the factors controlling the maximum size of these earthquakes are still poorly understood. Previous studies have suggested the importance of slab shape, roughness of the plate interface contact, state of the strain in the upper plate, thickness of sediments filling the trenches, and subduction rate. Here, we present 2‐D cross‐scale numerical models of seismic cycles for subduction zones with various geometries, subduction channel friction configurations, and subduction rates. We found that low‐angle subduction and thick sediments in the subduction channel are the necessary conditions for generating giant earthquakes, while the subduction rate has a negligible effect. We suggest that these key parameters determine the maximum magnitude of a subduction earthquake by controlling the seismogenic zone width and smoothness of the subduction interface. This interpretation supports previous studies that are based upon observations and scaling laws. Our modeling results also suggest that low static friction in the sediment‐filled subduction channel results in neutral or moderate compressive deformation in the overriding plate for low‐angle subduction zones hosting giant earthquakes. These modeling results agree well with observations for the largest earthquakes. Based on our models we predict maximum magnitudes of subduction earthquakes worldwide, demonstrating the fit to magnitudes of all giant earthquakes of the 20th and 21st centuries and good agreement with the predictions based on statistical analyses of observations.

Abstract It has recently been demonstrated that the interaction of a mantle plume with sufficiently old oceanic lithosphere can initiate subduction. However, the existence of large lithospheric heterogeneities, such as a buoyant plateau, in proximity to a rising plume head may potentially hinder the formation of a new subduction zone. Here, we investigate this scenario by means of 3‐D numerical thermomechanical modeling. We explore how plume‐lithosphere interaction is affected by lithospheric age, relative location of plume head and plateau border, and the strength of the oceanic crust. Our numerical experiments suggest four different geodynamic regimes: (a) oceanic trench formation, (b) circular oceanic‐plateau trench formation, (c) plateau trench formation, and (d) no trench formation. We show that regardless of the age and crustal strength of the oceanic lithosphere, subduction can initiate when the plume head is either below the plateau border or at a distance less than the plume radius from the plateau edge. Crustal heterogeneity facilitates subduction initiation of old oceanic lithosphere. High crustal strength hampers the formation of a new subduction zone when the plume head is located below a young lithosphere containing a thick and strong plateau. We suggest that plume‐plateau interaction in the western margin of the Caribbean could have resulted in subduction initiation when the plume head impinged onto the oceanic lithosphere close to the border between plateau and oceanic crust.