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Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land‐hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as‐yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil—a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers—we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation‐restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome‐scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010–2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low‐restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration‐plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land‐use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade‐offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of scenarios to evaluate restoration effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) is fundamental to improve restoration practices. Here we developed a systematic review to verify the existence of gaps and limitations in the use of scenarios for environmental restoration, and assess the state of the science of "restoration scenarios" and implications for future research. From 419 studies reviewed, most were held in developed countries, using exploratory scenarios at the regional scale, actively restoring ES and habitat at "habitat, ecosystems or communities" at landscape level, targeting forests and fragmented landscapes. The main gaps we identified were: few studies in tropical, marine, and urban environments, despite their importance for biodiversity and ES; few reports on global scales using target‐seeking approach, despite the existence of global targets; small number of studies considered invertebrates and invasive species, neglecting many ecosystem services and disservices; lack of participatory and cost‐effectiveness studies, revealing a disconnection between restoration research and socioeconomic context. The gaps identified might prevent the widespread use of scenarios for restoration planning, particularly the limited scales of analysis, the lack of participatory approaches, and weak cost consideration. We encourage the use of target‐seeking scenarios, with clear objectives, stimulating collaboration among stakeholders seeking cost‐effective restoration alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of tropical forest fragmentation on carbon balance, most of our knowledge comes from few sites in the Amazon and disregard long-term underlying processes related to landscape configuration. Accurate estimation of fragmentation effects should account for additive edge effects and edge age. Here we investigated those effects on C stock and forest structure (density, height, basal area) in fragments (13 to 362 ha) of forest with ≥ 70 years old, surrounded by pasture, in the Brazilian Atlantic forest region. We measured 5297 stems sampled in four categories replicated in eight fragments: fragment interiors (>110 m from edges); old (>50 years) corner edges (< 50 m); old straight edges; and new (ca. 44 years) straight edges. Aboveground biomass was estimated from tree height and diameter at breast height, and converted to carbon. Carbon stock was highly variable between categories, scoring from 10.44 Mg ha −1 up to 107.59 Mg ha −1 (average of 41.27 ± 23 Mg ha −1 ). Contrary to our expectations, interior plots did not have higher carbon stock, basal area or tree stem density than edges, but only taller trees. We found no significant effects of edge age or additive edge effects on carbon stocks. These results suggest that edge effects in the Atlantic rainforest may differ from those observed in more recently fragmented tropical forests, such as the Amazonian forest. We hypothesize that in heavily human-modified landscapes, more extensive edge effects combined with other human disturbances on tree mortality and carbon stock may contribute to overall high levels of degradation, reducing differences between edge and interior habitats. Existing models based on Amazonian forest data may underestimate the true impacts of fragmentation on carbon storage in landscapes with an old history of human disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural sustainability standards are an important way of reducing commodity expansion's pressures on biodiversity. Despite the increase of global area under certification and mounting evidence of positive socioeconomic outcomes, certification-derived conservation benefits are less clear. We applied a robust counterfactual approach with a difference-in-difference methodology to quantify the environmental consequences of certification in one of the largest coffee-producing areas in the world, in southern Brazil, within the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado biomes. We evaluated whether the adoption of certification standards affected native vegetation regeneration and deforestation, the proportion of vegetation deficit within each farm (the required area to achieve Federal Legislation required vegetation cover), and the conservation of sensitive vegetation protected under law across 531 certified farms. We did not detect certification-derived effects on the natural vegetation cover deficit and on deforestation and regeneration rates, which were low for certified and non-certified farms. However, we found that certified farms are restoring more sensitive areas than non-certified farms in the Atlantic Forest, which indicates a potential combined effect between law enforcement and certification. We suggest that in more consolidated landscapes, certification beneficial impacts on deforestation and regeneration might be more limited than observed in areas with weaker governance, such as agricultural frontiers or low-income countries. However, our results demonstrate the potential for certification schemes to complement and promote environmental legislation compliance. These potential combined effects between private sustainability standards and compliance with government environmental policies could provide a potent tool for improving the effectiveness of certification schemes in other high-biodiversity landscapes. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setting aside private land is an essential component of the biodiversity crisis response. In Brazil, landowners are required to have Legal Reserves (LR) (20%–80% of their property set aside for native vegetation) which, if degraded, need to be restored. Alternatively, landowners can compensate for an LR deficit by purchasing surplus credits. Each landowner can define the location and spatial arrangement of their LR, affecting the reserve's ability to maintain biodiversity and provide ecosystem services (ES). We used hierarchical models to determine drivers for the amount and location of those LR in 3622 farms. The likelihood of setting aside part of the farm as LR (avoiding off-farm compensation) increased with farm size and extent of native vegetation cover, particularly for riparian areas and steep slopes, where conserving vegetation is also mandated in what are called Areas of Permanent Protection (APP). Properties with APP were more likely to meet the full LR requirement within their areas if located in areas of higher transportation costs and lower agricultural suitability. Within properties, the location of LR was mostly in areas with low agricultural suitability, high transportation cost, and close to APP. Landowners' decisions intend to maximize property income and reduce restoration costs, resulting in a spatial pattern similar to public protected areas — usually located on marginal land for agriculture. These areas do not necessarily provide the greatest biodiversity and ES benefits, suggesting that government interventions may be needed to encourage landowners to set aside native vegetation in ways that maximize conservation and ES outcomes. [Display omitted] • Economic processes determine landowner decision around private land conservation. • Decision-making maximizes property income and reduces restoration costs. • Farms with low vegetation cover are less likely to restore or set in-farm reserves. • Conservation in-farm in our area has a similar location bias to protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]