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Background: Given an observed test statistic and its degrees of freedom, one may compute the observed P value with most statistical packages. It is unknown to what extent test statistics and P values are congruent in published medical papers. Methods: We checked the congruence of statistical results reported in all the papers of volumes 409-412 of Nature (2001) and a random sample of 63 results from volumes 322-323 of BMJ (2001). We also tested whether the frequencies of the last digit of a sample of 610 test statistics deviated from a uniform distribution (i.e., equally probable digits). Results: 11.6% (21 of 181) and 11.1% (7 of 63) of the statistical results published in Nature and BMJ respectively during 2001 were incongruent, probably mostly due to rounding, transcription, or type-setting errors. At least one such error appeared in 38% and 25% of the papers of Nature and BMJ, respectively. In 12% of the cases, the significance level might change one or more orders of magnitude. The frequencies of the last digit of statistics deviated from the uniform distribution and suggested digit preference in rounding and reporting. Conclusions: This incongruence of test statistics and P values is another example that statistical practice is generally poor, even in the most renowned scientific journals, and that quality of papers should be more controlled and valued. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To describe the technical performance of nested PCR for identifying hepatitis B viral (HBV) DNA. Methods: Hepatitis B viral DNA was extracted from a dried bloodstain on filter paper by a Chelex-100 method. Then the DNA fragment was amplified by nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The sensitivity and specificity of this method were also analyzed. The positive rate of the nested PCR-based method was compared with that of the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) method. Results: The lowest detection limit of the test was 5 copies of HBV DNA per μL by this method. McNemar's test showed that the difference between the positive rates of these 2 methods was not statistically significant (P=0.289, P>0.05). Hepatitis B viral test results showed a good concordance between these 2 methods (kappa=0.727). Conclusion: A very small amount of the dried blood sample is required for the detection, which could overcome the shortage of the normal ELISA method that requires a relatively large amount of fresh blood samples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we investigate the following question: if NP is slightly hard on average, is it very hard on average? We give a positive answer: if there is a function in NP which is infinitely often balanced and (1-1/poly(n))-hard for circuits of polynomial size, then there is a function in NP which is infinitely often (1/2+n-1/2+#x03B5;)-hard for circuits of polynomial size. Our proof technique is to generalize the Yao XOR Lemma, allowing us to characterize nearly tightly the hardness of a composite function g( f(x1),…,f(xn)) in terms of: (i) the original hardness of f, and (ii) the expected bias of the function g when subjected to random restrictions. The computational result we prove essentially matches an information-theoretic bound. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The authors study the complete convergence and complete moment convergence for weighted sums of m-extended negatively dependent (m-END) random variables. The results obtained in this paper extend and improve the corresponding results of Wu, Zhai and Peng [Y. F. Wu, M. Q. Zhai and J. Y. Peng, On the complete convergence for weighted sums of extended negatively dependent random variables, Journal of Mathematical Inequalities, 13 (1) (2019), 251–260] and Zarei and Jabbari [H. Zarei and H. Jabbari, Complete convergence of weighted sums under negative dependence, Statistical Papers, 52 (2011), 413–418]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Bayesian statistics was applied to a small sample database of the tensile properties of five different brands of writing paper which were perceptibly similar. The measured parameters in the database were found to overlap for the five brands. This posed a limitation to the application of the classical approach for “match” or “no match”. It was found that using Bayesian statistics for source correspondence, a mere 2–3 measurements corresponding to a particular brand raised the probabilities associated with that brand to as high a 72% and eliminating a couple of brands. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This article aims to introduce the inverse new XLindley distribution, a further extension of the new XLindley distribution. The article explores various properties of the proposed model, such as the quantile function, stochastic orders, entropies, fuzzy reliability, moments, and stress–strength estimation. The paper also compares different methods of estimating the parameters of the proposed model and evaluates their performance using a simulation study. Moreover, the paper demonstrates the usefulness of the proposed model by applying it to two real datasets. The article shows that the proposed model fits the data better than seven existing models based on model selection criteria, goodness-of-fit test statistics, and graphical visualizations. The paper concludes that the new model can be a valuable tool for modeling and analyzing hazard functions or survival data in various fields and contributing to probability theory and statistical inferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a novel class (family) of statistical distributions termed Odd Transmuted Rayleigh-X (OTRX) that was created through a transform-transformer (T-X) approach. The CDF and PDF of the OTR-X family were derived. The available statistical literature studied earlier highlighted that almost all generalized distributions (in which one or more parameters were added) performed well and have better presentation of data than their counterparts with less number of parameters. This has motivated us to developed new family that is capable of producing new distributions. The research paper also presented a clear mathematical formula for several characteristics of the OTR-X family, such as the ordinary moments, moment generating, quantile, and reliability function. In order to find the estimate of the corresponding parameters of the OTR-X family, the technique of maximum likelihood is used in the study. A new sub-model Odd Transmuted Rayleigh Inversed Exponential Distribution (OTRIED) was generated from the OTR-X class and compared its performance to Transmuted Inversed Exponential Distribution (TIED), Exponential Inversed Exponential Distribution (EIED), and Inversed Exponential Distribution using two different datasets. The results have shown that the proposed distribution out performed its competitors when using two different real-world datasets. Furthermore, the proposed distribution can be practicalized to any skewed dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: This paper provides a review of statistical methods for tumor-agnostic clinical trials. In particular, the review focuses on basket trials and provides methodological insights into various Bayesian approaches. The key concept of borrowing information through Bayesian hierarchical models is emphasized, and some novel trial designs are introduced. The review is expected to provide oncology and biostatistics researchers with more exposure to powerful Bayesian methods for the design and analysis of tumor-agnostic clinical trials. Basket trials allow simultaneous evaluation of a single therapy across multiple cancer types or subtypes of the same cancer. Since the same treatment is tested across all baskets, it may be desirable to borrow information across them to improve the statistical precision and power in estimating and detecting the treatment effects in different baskets. We review recent developments in Bayesian methods for the design and analysis of basket trials, focusing on the mechanism of information borrowing. We explain the common components of these methods, such as a prior model for the treatment effects that embodies an assumption of exchangeability. We also discuss the distinct features of these methods that lead to different degrees of borrowing. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the impact of information borrowing on the operating characteristics of these methods and discuss its broader implications for drug development. Examples of basket trials are presented in both phase I and phase II settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents abstracts and titles of abstracts submitted for papers presented at the 1969 Annual Meetings of the American Statistical Association and Biometric Society in New York. Some of the abstracts are Financial and Non-Financial Factors Affecting Post-High School Plans, 1939-1965," by Walter Adams, "Experimental Designs and Mathematical Models," by Sidney Addelman, "Consistency of Linear Least Squares Estimate in a Regression Model with Lagged Variable," by M. Ashanullah, "The Use of Prior Information in Testing of New Drugs," by David M. Allen, "A Comparison of Probability Density Estimates," by Gary Anderson, "Stochastic Models of City Population Density," by Robert T. Amsden, "ldentification and Input Signal Synthesis Problems in Discrete-Time Stochastic Control Systems," by Masanao Akoi, "A Computer Language for the Analysis of Variance," by David J. Aemor, "A Generalized Mathematical Model for Biological Recovery with Applications in Radiation Biology," by George M. Angelton."

This paper is concerned with the asymptotic analysis of sojourn times of random fields with continuous sample paths. Under a very general framework we show that there is an interesting relationship between tail asymptotics of sojourn times and that of supremum. Moreover, we establish the uniform double-sum method to derive the tail asymptotics of sojourn times. In the literature, based on the pioneering research of S. Berman the sojourn times have been utilised to derive the tail asymptotics of supremum of Gaussian processes. In this paper we show that the opposite direction is even more fruitful, namely knowing the asymptotics of supremum of random processes and fields (in particular Gaussian) it is possible to establish the asymptotics of their sojourn times. We illustrate our findings considering i) two dimensional Gaussian random fields, ii) chi-process generated by stationary Gaussian processes and iii) stationary Gaussian queueing processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiclass probability estimation is the problem of estimating conditional probabilities of a data point belonging to a class given its covariate information. It has broad applications in statistical analysis and data science. Recently a class of weighted Support Vector Machines (wSVMs) has been developed to estimate class probabilities through ensemble learning for K-class problems (Wu et al., 2010; Wang et al., 2019), where K is the number of classes. The estimators are robust and achieve high accuracy for probability estimation, but their learning is implemented through pairwise coupling, which demands polynomial time in K. In this paper, we propose two new learning schemes, the baseline learning and the One-vs-All (OVA) learning, to further improve wSVMs in terms of computational efficiency and estimation accuracy. In particular, the baseline learning has optimal computational complexity in the sense that it is linear in K. Though not the most efficient in computation, the OVA is found to have the best estimation accuracy among all the procedures under comparison. The resulting estimators are distribution-free and shown to be consistent. We further conduct extensive numerical experiments to demonstrate their finite sample performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents comments by the author on a paper discussing heuristic and special case algorithms for dispersion problems. Problems discussed in this article are the subject of the paper in focus. The results presented in that paper include a simple heuristic for Max-Min Facility Dispersion (MMFD) which provides a performance guarantee of 1/2, and a similar heuristic for Max-Avg Facility Dispersion (MAFD) with a performance guarantee of 1/4. It is also proved there that obtaining a performance guarantee of more than 1/2 for MMFD is NP-hard. The paper also discussed the one- dimensional versions of MMFD and MAFD, where the vertex set V consists of a set of n points on the real line. Section 2 of the paper is devoted to the heuristic for MMPD. It should be noted that this heuristic was analyzed before. In fact, it is shown therein that the performance guarantee of 1/2, holds for a more general model where the selected set p is restricted to be in a compact subset of the network indiced by the edge distances.

Multiple comparisons tests (MCTs) are performed several times on the mean of experimental conditions. When the null hypothesis is rejected in a validation, MCTs are performed when certain experimental conditions have a statistically significant mean difference or there is a specific aspect between the group means. A problem occurs if the error rate increases while multiple hypothesis tests are performed simultaneously. Consequently, in an MCT, it is necessary to control the error rate to an appropriate level. In this paper, we discuss how to test multiple hypotheses simultaneously while limiting type I error rate, which is caused by a inflation. To choose the appropriate test, we must maintain the balance between statistical power and type I error rate. If the test is too conservative, a type I error is not likely to occur. However, concurrently, the test may have insufficient power resulted in increased probability of type II error occurrence. Most researchers may hope to find the best way of adjusting the type I error rate to discriminate the real differences between observed data without wasting too much statistical power. It is expected that this paper will help researchers understand the differences between MCTs and apply them appropriately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are various parametric models for analyzing pairwise comparison data, including the Bradley–Terry–Luce (BTL) and Thurstone models, but their reliance on strong parametric assumptions is limiting. In this paper, we study a flexible model for pairwise comparisons, under which the probabilities of outcomes are required only to satisfy a natural form of stochastic transitivity. This class includes parametric models, including the BTL and Thurstone models as special cases, but is considerably more general. We provide various examples of models in this broader stochastically transitive class for which classical parametric models provide poor fits. Despite this greater flexibility, we show that the matrix of probabilities can be estimated at the same rate as in standard parametric models up to logarithmic terms. On the other hand, unlike in the BTL and Thurstone models, computing the minimax-optimal estimator in the stochastically transitive model is non-trivial, and we explore various computationally tractable alternatives. We show that a simple singular value thresholding algorithm is statistically consistent but does not achieve the minimax rate. We then propose and study algorithms that achieve the minimax rate over interesting sub-classes of the full stochastically transitive class. We complement our theoretical results with thorough numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recurrent events—outcomes that an individual can experience repeatedly over the course of follow-up—are common in epidemiologic and health services research. Studies involving recurrent events often focus on time to first occurrence or on event rates, which assume constant hazards over time. In this paper, we contextualize recurrent event parameters of interest using counterfactual theory in a causal inference framework and describe an approach for estimating a target parameter referred to as the mean cumulative count. This approach leverages inverse probability weights to control measured confounding with an existing (and underutilized) nonparametric estimator of recurrent event burden first proposed by Dong et al. in 2015. We use simulations to demonstrate the unbiased estimation of the mean cumulative count using the weighted Dong-Yasui estimator in a variety of scenarios. The weighted Dong-Yasui estimator for the mean cumulative count allows researchers to use observational data to flexibly estimate and contrast the expected number of cumulative events experienced per individual by a given time point under different exposure regimens. We provide code to ease application of this method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given a probability distribution p := {pk}k=1∞ on the positive integers, there are two natural ways to construct a random permutation in Sn or a random permutation of N from IID samples from p. One is called the p-biased construction and the other the p-shifted construction. In the first part of the paper we consider the case that the distribution p is the geometric distribution with parameter 1 - q ∈ (0, 1). In this case, the p-shifted random permutation has the Mallows distribution with parameter q. Let Pnb;Geo(1-q) and Pns;Geo(1-q) denote the biased and the shifted distributions on Sn. The expected number of inversions of a permutation under Pns;Geo(1-q) is greater than under Pnb;Geo(1-q), and under either of these distributions, a permutation tends to have many fewer inversions than it would have under the uniform distribution. For fixed n, both Pnb;Geo(1-q) and Pns;Geo(1-q) converge weakly as q → 1 to the uniform distribution on Sn. We compare the biased and the shifted distributions by studying the inversion statistic under ... and ... for various rates of convergence of qn to 1. In the second part of the paper we consider p-biased and p-shifted permutations for the case that the distribution p is itself random and distributed as a GEM(θ)-distribution. In particular, in both the GEM(θ)-biased and the GEM(θ)-shifted cases, the expected number of inversions behaves asymptotically as it does under the Geo(1 - q)-shifted distribution with θ = q / 1-q . This allows one to consider the GEM(θ)-shifted case as the random counterpart of the Geo(q)-shifted case. We also consider another p-biased distribution with random p for which the expected number of inversions behaves asymptotically as it does under the Geo(1 - q)-biased case with θ and q as above, and with θ → ∞ and q → 1 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: In the modern era, characterized by parenchymal-sparing procedures, in some cases pneumonectomy remains the only therapeutic approach to achieving oncological radicality. One of the most feared complications is undoubtedly respiratory failure and ARDS. Its cause after pneumonectomy is still unclear, and the study of risk factors is a subject of debate. In this paper, we evaluate the main risk factors for ARDS of a large cohort of patients and we classify them in four classes of growing risk in order to quantify their postoperative risk of ARDS and facilitate their global management. (1) Background: The cause of ARDS after pneumonectomy is still unclear, and the study of risk factors is a subject of debate. (2) Methods: We reviewed a large panel of pre-, peri- and postoperative data of 211 patients who underwent pneumonectomy during the period 2014–2021. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was used to quantify the association between preoperative parameters and the risk of developing ARDS, in addition to odds ratios and their respective 95% confidence intervals. A backward stepwise selection approach was used to limit the number of variables in the final multivariable model to significant independent predictors of ARDS. A nomogram was constructed based on the results of the final multivariable model, making it possible to estimate the probability of developing ARDS. Statistical significance was defined by a two-tailed p-value < 0.05. (3) Results: Out of 211 patients (13.3%), 28 developed ARDS. In the univariate analysis, increasing age, Charlson Comorbidity Index and ASA scores, DLCO < 75% predicted, preoperative C-reactive protein (CRP), lung perfusion and duration of surgery were associated with ARDS; a significant increase in ARDS was also observed with decreasing VO2max level. Multivariable analysis confirmed the role of ASA score, DLCO < 75% predicted, preoperative C-reactive protein and lung perfusion. Using the nomogram, we classified patients into four classes with rates of ARDS ranking from 2.0% to 34.0%. (4) Conclusions: Classification in four classes of growing risk allows a correct preoperative stratification of these patients in order to quantify the postoperative risk of ARDS and facilitate their global management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related mortality among males in the US. Definitive radiation therapy (RT) plays an important role in curative-intent treatment for localized PCa and can be delivered with several different techniques, depending on the availability of resources and patient-specific criteria. With an analysis of the extensive National Cancer Database, this paper investigates trends in utilization, survival probability, and factors associated with overall survival of six common RT modalities utilized for the treatment of PCa patients—stratified by the three risk groups. Background: In this study, the utilization rates and survival outcomes of different radiotherapy techniques are compared in prostate cancer (PCa) patients stratified by risk group. Methods: We analyzed an extensive data set of N0, M0, non-surgical PCa patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2015 from the National Cancer Database (NCDB). Patients were grouped into six categories based on RT modality: an intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) group with brachytherapy (BT) boost, IMRT with/without IMRT boost, proton therapy, stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), low-dose-rate brachytherapy (BT LDR), and high-dose-rate brachytherapy (BT HDR). Patients were also stratified by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines: low-risk (clinical stage T1–T2a, Gleason Score (GS) ≤ 6, and Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) < 10), intermediate-risk (clinical stage T2b or T2c, GS of 7, or PSA of 10–20), and high-risk (clinical stage T3–T4, or GS of 8–10, or PSA > 20). Overall survival (OS) probability was determined using a Kaplan–Meier estimator. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed by risk group for the six treatment modalities. Results: The most utilized treatment modality for all PCa patients was IMRT (53.1%). Over the years, a steady increase in SBRT utilization was observed, whereas BT HDR usage declined. IMRT-treated patient groups exhibited relatively lower survival probability in all risk categories. A slightly better survival probability was observed for the proton therapy group. Hormonal therapy was used for a large number of patients in all risk groups. Conclusion: This study revealed that IMRT was the most common treatment modality for PCa patients. Brachytherapy, SBRT, and IMRT+BT exhibited similar survival rates, whereas proton showed slightly better overall survival across the three risk groups. However, analysis of the demographics indicates that these differences are at least in part due to selection bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper aims to solve the arterial input function (AIF) determination in dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI), an important linear ill-posed inverse problem, using the maximum entropy technique (MET) and regularization functionals. In addition, estimating the pharmacokinetic parameters from a DCE-MR image investigations is an urgent need to obtain the precise information about the AIF–the concentration of the contrast agent on the left ventricular blood pool measured over time. For this reason, the main idea is to show how to find a unique solution of linear system of equations generally in the form of y = A x + b , named an ill-conditioned linear system of equations after discretization of the integral equations, which appear in different tomographic image restoration and reconstruction issues. Here, a new algorithm is described to estimate an appropriate probability distribution function for AIF according to the MET and regularization functionals for the contrast agent concentration when applying Bayesian estimation approach to estimate two different pharmacokinetic parameters. Moreover, by using the proposed approach when analyzing simulated and real datasets of the breast tumors according to pharmacokinetic factors, it indicates that using Bayesian inference—that infer the uncertainties of the computed solutions, and specific knowledge of the noise and errors—combined with the regularization functional of the maximum entropy problem, improved the convergence behavior and led to more consistent morphological and functional statistics and results. Finally, in comparison to the proposed exponential distribution based on MET and Newton's method, or Weibull distribution via the MET and teaching–learning-based optimization (MET/TLBO) in the previous studies, the family of Gamma and Erlang distributions estimated by the new algorithm are more appropriate and robust AIFs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A central issue in assessing the airborne risk of COVID-19 infections in indoor spaces pertains to linking the viral load in infected subjects to the lung deposition probability in exposed individuals through comprehensive aerosol dynamics modelling. In this paper, we achieve this by combining aerosol processes (evaporation, dispersion, settling, lung deposition) with a novel double Poisson model to estimate the probability that at least one carrier particle containing at least one virion will be deposited in the lungs and infect a susceptible individual. Multiple emission scenarios are considered. Unlike the hitherto used single Poisson models, the double Poisson model accounts for fluctuations in the number of carrier particles deposited in the lung in addition to the fluctuations in the virion number per carrier particle. The model demonstrates that the risk of infection for 10-min indoor exposure increases from 1 to 50% as the viral load in the droplets ejected from the infected subject increases from 2 × 108 to 2 × 1010 RNA copies/mL. Being based on well-established aerosol science and statistical principles, the present approach puts airborne risk assessment methodology on a sound formalistic footing, thereby reducing avoidable epistemic uncertainties in estimating relative transmissibilities of different coronavirus variants quantified by different viral loads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

FFQ are commonly used to examine the association between diet and disease. They are the most practical method for usual dietary data collection as they are relatively inexpensive and easy to administer. In Australia, the Cancer Council of Victoria FFQ (CCVFFQ) version 2 and the online Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation FFQ (CSIROFFQ) are used. The aim of our study was to establish the level of agreement between nutrient intakes captured using the online CSIROFFQ and the paper-based CCVFFQ. The CCVFFQ and the online CSIROFFQ were completed by 136 healthy participants. FFQ responses were analysed to give g per d intake of a range of nutrients. Agreement between twenty-six nutrient intakes common to both FFQ was measured by a variety of methods. Nutrient intake levels that were significantly correlated between the two FFQ were carbohydrates, total fat, Na and MUFA. When assessing ranking of nutrients into quintiles, on average, 56 % of the participants (for all nutrients) were classified into the same or adjacent quintiles in both FFQ, with the highest percentage agreement for sugar. On average, 21 % of participants were grossly misclassified by three or four quintiles, with the highest percentage misclassification for fibre and Fe. Quintile agreement was similar to that reported by other studies, and we concluded that both FFQ are suitable tools for dividing participants’ nutrient intake levels into high- and low-consumption groups. Use of either FFQ was not appropriate for obtaining accurate estimates of absolute nutrient intakes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A novel approach to the track-to-track fusion (T2TF) of state estimates from interacting multiple-model (IMM) estimators using inside information [mode-conditioned estimates (MCEs) and mode probabilities] is described in this paper. Fusion is performed on-demand, i.e., without conditioning on past track data. The local trackers run IMM estimators to track a maneuvering target with switching process noise and they transmitMCEs andmode probabilities to a fusion center. The fused state posterior probability density is a Gaussian mixture, where the parameters of the required likelihood functions can be computed recursively. Mode probabilities are fused by transforming them to logratios and using them as statistical information in the likelihood function of themode. This results in consistent data fusion based on known target and local tracker (IMM) parameters. Simulations show that this method outperforms the fusion of the local IMM estimator Gaussianapproximated outputs both in terms of error during target maneuvers and in terms of the consistency of the mean-squared error (MSE). It is a generalization of Gaussian T2TF with crosscovariance, and its performance is close to that of centralized measurement fusion (CMF)--by accounting for the error and log-ratio crosscovariances, the fused covariance consistency matches the ideal consistency of CMF without requiring memory of past fused tracks. The method is also shown to be more accurate, informative, consistent in MSE, and of lower computational and communication cost than Chernoff fusion, a recently published method for Gaussian mixture fusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crest cracking is one of the most common damage types for high earth-rockfill dams. Cracking risk of dam crest is closely related to the duration of abnormal deformation state. In this paper, a methodology for dynamic risk evaluation and early warning of crest cracking for high earth-rockfill dams is proposed and mainly consists of: (a) The discrimination of abnormal deformation state related to crest cracking, which is implemented by comparing the crest settlement inclination with the threshold value. (b) Computation of crest cracking probability and estimation of cracking time. The exponential distribution is adopted to represent the probability distribution of the duration TAS of abnormal state before crest cracking. Then the crest cracking probability in a given time can be computed by integration with respect to TAS. Inversely, the cracking time corresponding to a given probability can be estimated. (c) Determination of the values of probability adopted to early warn crest cracking, which are suggested to be selected by statistical analysis of the calculated probabilities at the observed cracking times. (d) Bayesian estimation and updating of probability distribution of the parameter λ in the PDF of TAS, according to observed durations of abnormal state before crest cracking. The methodology is illustrated and verified by the case study for an actual earth-rockfill dam, of which crest cracking and recracking events were observed during the periods of high reservoir level. According to the observed values of TAS, the probability distribution for λ is progressively updated and the dispersion of the distributions of λ gradually decreases. The crest cracking probability increases with the duration of abnormal state and the width of confidence interval of the estimated cracking probability progressively contracts with the updating of the distribution for λ. Finally, the early warning of crest cracking for the dam is investigated by estimating the lower limit of cracking time. It is shown that early warning of crest cracking can be issued from at least 20 days ahead of the occurrence of crest cracking event. The idea of using duration of abnormal state of crest settlement to evaluate crest cracking risk of the earth-rockfill dam in this paper may be applicable to other dams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The correspondence between Richard von Mises and George Pólya of 1919/20 contains reflections on two well-known articles by von Mises on the foundations of probability in the Mathematische Zeitschrift of 1919, and one paper from the Physikalische Zeitschrift of 1918. The topics touched on in the correspondence are: the proof of the central limit theorem of probability theory, von Mises' notion of randomness, and a statistical criterion for integer-valuedness of physical data. The investigation will hint at both the fruitfulness and the limits of several of von Mises' notions such as ``collective'', ``distribution'' and ``complex adjuncts'' (characteristic functions) for further developments in probability theory and in ``directional statistics''. By pointing to the selectiveness of Pólya's criticism, the historical analysis shows the differing expectations of the two men with respect to the further development of the theory of probability and its applications. The paper thus gives a glimpse of the provisional state of the theory around 1920, before others such as P. Lévy (1886–1971) and A. N. Kolmogorov (1903–1987) stepped in and created a new paradigm for probability theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fitelson and Waterman's ([2005]) principal objection to Strevens's ([2001]) Bayesian treatment of auxiliary hypotheses rests on a misinterpretation of Strevens's central claim about the negligibility of certain small probabilities. The present paper clarifies and proves a very general version of the claim. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classical null hypothesis significance tests are not appropriate in corpus linguistics, because the randomness assumption underlying these testing procedures is not fulfilled. Nevertheless, there are numerous scenarios where it would be beneficial to have some kind of test in order to judge the relevance of a result (e.g. a difference between two corpora) by answering the question whether the attribute of interest is pronounced enough to warrant the conclusion that it is substantial and not due to chance. In this paper, I outline such a test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several lifetime distributions have played an important role to fit survival data. However, for some of these models, the computation of maximum likelihood estimators is quite difficult due to presence of flat regions in the search space, among other factors. Several well-known derivative-based optimization tools are unsuitable for obtaining such estimates. To circumvent this problem, we introduce the AdequacyModel computational library version 2.0.0 for the R statistical environment with two major contributions: a general optimization technique based on the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method (with a minor modification of the original algorithm) and a set of statistical measures for assessment of the adequacy of the fitted model. This library is very useful for researchers in probability and statistics and has been cited in various papers in these areas. It serves as the basis for the Newdistns library (version 2.1) published in an impact journal in the area of computational statistics, see . It is also the basis of the Wrapped library (version 2.0), see . A third package making use of the AdequacyModel library can be found in . In addition, the proposed library has proved to be very useful for maximizing log-likelihood functions with complex search regions. The library provides a greater control of the optimization process by introducing a stop criterion based on a minimum number of iterations and the variance of a given proportion of optimal values. We emphasize that the new library can be used not only in statistics but in physics and mathematics as proved in several examples throughout the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from clinical trials investigating on-demand medication often consist of an intentionally varying number of measurements per patient. These measurements are often observations of discrete events of when the medication was taken, including for example data on symptom severity. In addition to the varying number of observations between patients, the data have another important feature: they are characterized by a hierarchical structure in which the events are nested within patients. Traditionally, the observed events of patients are aggregated into means and subsequently analyzed using, for example, a repeated measures ANOVA. This procedure has drawbacks. One drawback is that these patient means have different standard errors, first, because the variance of the underlying events differs between patients and second, because the number of events per patient differs. In this paper, we argue that such data should be analyzed by applying a multilevel analysis using the individual observed events as separate nested observations. Such a multilevel approach handles this drawback and it also enables the examination of varying drug effects across patients by estimating random effects. We show how multilevel analyses can be applied to on-demand medication data from a clinical trial investigating the efficacy of a drug for women with low sexual desire. We also explore linear and quadratic time effects that can only be performed when the individual events are considered as separate observations and we discuss several important statistical topics relevant for multilevel modeling. Taken together, the use of a multilevel approach considering events as nested observations in these types of data is advocated as it is more valid and provides more information than other (traditional) methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of data from market research has, until fairly recently, been reliant upon statistical techniques that were developed during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries for uses entirely other than the analysis of survey and other types of observational, non-experimental data. Such techniques rely on reviewing and relating the frequency distributions of variables that have been concocted and measured by researchers. This paper argues that key features of such 'frequentist' statistics are also limitations that need to be recognised by academics, market research practitioners and the managers to whom they report findings. By focusing on variable distributions across cases, they overlook patterns of within-case configuration; they seek out only symmetrical, linear patterns by reviewing the 'net effects' of individual variables; they rely on a very circumscribed view of statistical inference from samples to populations; they are not good at demonstrating causal connections between variables or at handling system complexity. A follow-up paper, 'Rethinking data analysis -- part two: some alternatives to frequentist approaches', examines ways of approaching data sets that can be seen as viable alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a measure of extropy is obtained for concomitants of m-generalized order statistics in the Morgenstern family. The cumulative residual extropy (CREX) and negative cumulative extropy (NCEX) are presented for the rth concomitant of m-generalized order statistics. In addition, the problem of estimating the CREX and NCEX is studied utilizing the empirical method in concomitants of m-generalized order statistics. Some applications of these results are given for the concomitants of order statistics and record values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Students in health care professions, including occupational therapy, are required to develop knowledge, skills and attitudes in mental health and research. Persons diagnosed with a mental illness, a learning disability or an autism-spectrum disorder desire to achieve goals in higher education and employment. Faculty in health care programmes strives to meet professional goals and accreditation and institution requirements for teaching, service and scholarship. The Bridge Program, a programme based on principles of community engagement, was developed to meet the needs of these three stakeholders. The objective of this paper is to provide programme description and outcomes of the effectiveness of the Bridge Program for all three stakeholders. This uses mixed methods research design including descriptive and quantitative and qualitative one-group pre-test-post-test designs. Instruments consisted of the Occupational Therapy Student and Mental Health Population Scale and the Canadian Occupational Performance Measure. Quantitative results support that graduate occupational therapy students gained research and clinical skills ( n = 100; p = .000); clients increased performance and satisfaction toward goals ( n = 113; p = .000) and faculty ( n = 1) achieved goals related to teaching, service and scholarship. Programmes based on principles of community engagement can address the needs of the community, can provide outcomes that advance knowledge about community practice and can result in benefits for all stakeholders. This paper is limited to generalization and instrumentation and recommends an ongoing evaluation of other community engagement programmes involving all stakeholders in the future research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses the theory of probability and statistics to evaluate the thinking dynamics of college students to understand the psychological state of college students. First, the paper uses a web crawler to crawl and analyze the official micro articles. Using the method of probability statistics and the K-mean clustering method, we can understand the psychological state of college students in real time. The results of this experiment show that the current hot topics can be obtained within a certain period by using the statistical method of vocabulary display and clustering. The purpose of this paper is to propose corresponding countermeasures and approaches for the ideological and political work of college graduates. This model has a positive effect on cultivating college students’ values and ways of thinking.

In this paper evidence of anthropogenic influence over the warming of the 20th century is presented and the debate regarding the time-series properties of global temperatures is addressed in depth. The 20th century global temperature simulations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report and a set of the radiative forcing series used to drive them are analyzed using modern econometric techniques. Results show that both temperatures and radiative forcing series share similar time-series properties and a common nonlinear secular movement. This long-term co-movement is characterized by the existence of time-ordered breaks in the slope of their trend functions. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that while natural forcing factors may help explain the warming of the first part of the century, anthropogenic forcing has been its main driver since the 1970’s. In terms of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, significant anthropogenic interference with the climate system has already occurred and the current climate models are capable of accurately simulating the response of the climate system, even if it consists in a rapid or abrupt change, to changes in external forcing factors. This paper presents a new methodological approach for conducting time-series based attribution studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the distributional properties and statistical regularities of virtual, intra-virtual and traditional currency exchange rates. To perform the analysis, the most relevant virtual, intra-virtual and foreign currency exchange rates between October 2015 and December 2018 are examined. The analysis shows that, in spite of their differing mode of formation, daily log-returns of all currency types share tent-shaped empirical densities, one of the characteristics of a Laplace distribution at semi-log scale. This peculiar property has also been examined thoroughly in other fields of economic literature. Moreover, the empirical results show that virtual and traditional currencies hold the same functional form, even after the 2018 hype. However, in spite of these similarities virtual and intra-virtual currencies display fatter tails and steeper towering peaks than regular foreign currencies which underscores the rather speculative nature of this asset class. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a mixture regression model-based method for drug sensitivity prediction. The proposed method explicitly addresses two fundamental issues in drug sensitivity prediction, namely, population heterogeneity and feature selection pertaining to each of the subpopulations. The mixture regression model is estimated using the imputation-conditional consistency algorithm, and the resulting estimator is consistent. This paper also proposes an average-BIC criterion for determining the number of components for the mixture regression model. The proposed method is applied to the CCLE dataset, and the numerical results indicate that the proposed method can make a drastic improvement over the existing ones, such as random forest, support vector regression, and regularized linear regression, in both drug sensitivity prediction and feature selection. The p-values for the comparisons in drug sensitivity prediction can reach the order O(10−8) or lower for the drugs with heterogeneous populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of generalized linear models (GLMs), interactions are automatically induced on the natural scale of the data. The conventional approach to measuring effects in GLMs based on significance testing (e.g. the Wald test or using deviance to assess model fit) is not always appropriate. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the limitations of these conventional approaches and to explore alternative strategies for determining the importance of effects. The paper compares four approaches to determining the importance of effects in the GLM using 1) the Wald statistic, 2) change in deviance (model fitting criteria), 3) Bayesian GLM using vaguely informative priors and 4) Bayesian Model Averaging analysis. The main points in this paper are illustrated using an example study, which examines the risk factors for cyber abuse victimization, and are further examined using a simulation study. Analysis of our example dataset shows that, in terms of a logistic GLM, the conventional methods using the Wald test and the change in deviance can produce results that are difficult to interpret; Bayesian analysis of GLM is a suitable alternative, which is enhanced with prior knowledge about the direction of the effects; and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is especially suited for new areas of research, particularly in the absence of theory. We recommend that social scientists consider including BMA in their standard toolbox for analysis of GLMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the complexity of large production systems, maintenance events are diverse, simultaneous and dynamic. Appropriate maintenance management of complex large production systems can guarantee high availability and save maintenance costs. However, current maintenance decision-making methods mainly focus on the maintenance events of single-components and series connection multi-components; little research pays attention to the combination maintenance of different maintenance events. Therefore, this paper proposes a multi-event combination maintenance model based on event correlation. First, the maintenance downtime and cost of three types of maintenance events under different maintenance beginning times and degrees are analysed. Then, shared maintenance downtime and cost models are established by maintenance event correlations. In addition, a multi-event combination maintenance model is constructed to achieve the goal of the highest availability and the lowest cost rate in both the decision-making cycle and the remaining life. Moreover, a particle swarm optimization algorithm based on interval segmentation for model solving is designed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]