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Under circumstances where data quality may vary (due to inaccuracies or lack of timeliness, for example), knowledge about the potential performance of alternate predictive models can help a decision maker to design a business-value-maximizing information system. This paper examines a real-world example from the field of finance to illustrate a comparison of alternative modeling tools. Two modeling alternatives are used in this example: regression analysis and neural network analysis. There are two main results: (1) Linear regression outperformed neural nets in terms of forecasting accuracy, but the opposite was true when we considered the business value of the forecast. (2) Neural net-based forecasts tended to be more robust than linear regression forecasts as data accuracy degraded. Managerial implications for financial risk management of mortgage-backed security portfolios are drawn from the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial neural networks are successfully used to solve a wide variety of scientific and technical problems. The purpose of the study is to increase the efficiency of distributed solutions for problems involving structural-parametric synthesis of neural network models of complex systems based on GRID (geographically disperse computing resources) technology through the integrated application of the apparatus of evolutionary optimization and queuing theory. During the course of the research, the following was obtained: (i) New mathematical models for assessing the performance and reliability of GRID systems; (ii) A new multi-criteria optimization model for designing GRID systems to solve high-resource computing problems; and (iii) A new decision support system for the design of GRID systems using a multi-criteria genetic algorithm. Fonseca and Fleming's genetic algorithm with a dynamic penalty function was used as a method for solving the stated multi-constrained optimization problem. The developed program system was used to solve the problem of choosing an effective structure of a centralized GRID system that was configured to solve the problem of structural-parametric synthesis of neural network models. To test the proposed approach, a Pareto-optimal configuration of the GRID system was built with the following characteristics: average performance–103.483 GFLOPS, cost–500 rubles per day, availability rate–99.92%, and minimum performance–51 GFLOPS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inspired by the operation of human social organisation, this paper presents a new architecture—a pyramid-committee—for developing society-oriented intelligence, whose structure imitates the organisation of human society in its decision making. The system takes a pyramid-like hierarchical structure with links in the pyramid forming a semi-lattice, which relate not only to nodes in the same layer, but also to others in different layers. The output of the system is a result of the negotiation and balancing of different interests. For such a system to function, the main difficulties concern the complicated relationships between different factors or agents. Focussing on the airport environment audit, we discuss the development of a model framework and the role of neural networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, we are considering that the design process can be modelled in the form of a constraint satisfaction problem (CSP). CSP modelling or resolution has proved its efficiency within the framework of single-designer design. We propose to extend the functions of CSP to the context of multi-concept design of the same artefact. We define CoCSP as cooperative constraint satisfaction problem including the actors of the design problem. We are presenting the operating principles of an algorithm for the real-time management of design decisions, based on a model described in the form of a CoCSP for the integration of supply-chain constraints. This algorithm enables the number of design decisions rejected at a given moment in design to be kept to a minimum. The algorithm forms the core of a prototype for an unsupervised, generic constraint-based collaborative design system. Our aim is to produce a platform centred on the notion of constraints that will enable a product design problem to be modelled and solved by integrating supply-chain constraints as far upstream as possible. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]