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This paper explores the predictions of real business cycle theory on the roles of total factor productivity (TFP) and financial frictions to explain business cycles in emerging market economies (EMEs). I obtain evidence about TFP, price of capital, risk premium, and collateral constraint shocks by estimating structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) on a Brazilian sample from 1999Q1 to 2018Q4 and a Mexican sample from 1997Q1 to 2018Q4. On each sample, two SVARs are estimated. One SVAR identifies shocks by imposing restrictions on their short-run impact. The other SVAR is grounded on restrictions that shocks have long-run effects on business cycles in EMEs. Estimates of the SVARs show the TFP shock is the main driver of business cycle movements in Brazil and Mexico. However, this evidence is produced by the SVAR under the long-run restrictions, which indicates the identification of shocks matters to the explanation of business cycles in EMEs. Next, the Brazilian and Mexican business cycles are markedly different, as the contributions of shocks to aggregate fluctuations vary across the two countries. Hence, findings of this paper suggest although not all business cycles are alike in EMEs, "the cycle is the trend" view on aggregate fluctuations in EMEs remains valid. The empirical results of this paper are in support of the economic policies that aim to robustify the productivity process of EMEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of RACE- Revista de Administraçâo, Contabilidade e Economia is the property of Revista de Administracao, Contabeis e Economia-RACE and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista Producao Online is the property of Associacao Brasileira de Engenharia de Producao and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper provides evidence on the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and real GDP growth in Brazil, using both aggregate and state-level data. The focus is on distinguishing longer-run trends in this relationship from short-run cyclical fluctuations, and on documenting changes in these relationships over time. We use two different filtering techniques for separating trend and cycle, namely the commonly-used Hodrick-Prescott filter and the newer filter proposed by Hamilton (2018). We find that the long-run or trend elasticity for Brazil is about 0.8, higher than than in the average for advanced countries but below that of other major emerging markets. This elasticity is somewhat higher for consumption-based emissions than for production-based emissions. The direction of these results is not entirely consistent with the pollution haven hypothesis but the quantitative difference between the two elasticities is not large (or statistically different from one another). Consequently, our findings suggest that shifts in the allocation of global production across countries are not a major driver of shifts in the pattern of emissions growth in Brazil. Additional evidence comes from state-level data analysis where one can observe a great deal of heterogeneity, but also some hope as far as decoupling is concerned. Our analysis for 27 states does not reveal any underlying inverted U-shape relationship between the intensity of emissions-GDP relationship and the level of per capita GDP. That is, at the state level, we do not observe that Kuznets elasticity initially increases with provincial per capita real GDP but then declines. In addition to the trend relationship between emissions and output, we find that there does not seem to exist a short-run or cyclical relationship holding in Brazil at the aggregate level (despite having become more procyclical over time), but it does exist in a few individual states. Finally, we further find evidence of asymmetry in the cyclical relationship: the elasticity is higher in booms than during busts, and thus Brazil's emissions go up more when GDP is above trend than they decrease when GDP is below trend. However, this result seems to be mainly driven by a few states. The transition to a low-carbon economy will thus require continued progress not only in bringing down trend emissions, but also in taming the increase in emissions that occurs during the boom phase of the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Committed to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century, South America faces unique challenges in carbon mitigation due to its distinct socio-economic, technological, and institutional backgrounds compared to developed and other developing economies. Previous research on South America's carbon emissions has limited country and sector coverage and typically adopts a top-down approach that focuses on the overall emissions of an economy, neglecting individual energy sources and emission sectors. Therefore, this paper compiles a comprehensive inventory of CO 2 emissions for South American countries based on a meticulous bottom-up approach and multi-source data integration, followed by a thorough analysis of their temporal evolution patterns and the driving forces behind them. Between 2010 and 2020, South America's overall emissions peaked in 2014 at 1092.3 Mt., led by emissions from oil consumption and from the transport and electricity sectors, and dropped to 865.6 Mt. in 2020, due to the economic fluctuations and COVID-19. Specifically, Brazil was the largest emitter, Chile experienced the most significant increase in emissions, and Paraguay recorded the highest emission growth rate. Generally, expanding population was constant driver of emission growth. High energy intensity led to significant emission increases in Brazil and Ecuador, while elevated carbon intensity was the main driver in Argentina. Energy structure changes played a positive role in most countries to different extents (e.g., much more significant in Brazil than in Chile) but aggrevated emissions in Paraguay and Guyana. Therefore, carbon mitigation strategies should be tailored to each country's unique national circumstances. • During 2010–2020, South America's CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels peaked in 2014. • Transport and electricity sectors comprised over 60% of total emissions. • Brazil was the top emitter, while Chile saw the largest increase in emissions. • Emission patterns and driving factors varied significantly across countries. • Carbon reduction strategies should be tailored to local circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Nova Economia is the property of Nova Economia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Objective: Decisions concerning inventory management involve a trade-off in which firms must choose between keeping high inventory levels, thus decreasing the risk of product shortage, or keeping low inventory levels and applying excess cash in other investments. Therefore, this paper addresses the relationship between inventory management and performance. Method: This sample is composed of non-financial firms listed on Brazil's stock exchange operator B3, from 2010 to 2018. Because inventory is not relevant for all the companies included in the initial sample, we applied a procedure using simple linear regression to refine the sample. Only firms with a significant relationship between inventory and sales continued in the sample. A quantitative approach based on regression analysis was used to test the research assumptions. Results: The results of the model that considers performance measuring from the perspective of aggregate value show no relationship between inventory and performance. Robustness was verified using ROA to measure performance from the perspective of profitability. We found an inverted U relationship between profitability, the net trade cycle, and its square. That is, we found a non-linear relationship between the variables, corroborating the idea that there is an optimal level between inventory and profitability. Contributions: As far as we know, this is the first study investigating whether there is a point of inflection of inventory management and performance among Brazilian firms. The results present relevant and practical guidelines for Brazilian firms and researchers addressing performance related to the net trade cycle, as they suggest that Brazilian shareholders are not concerned with internal factors such as inventory management, but rather with whether a firm is being profitably managed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics / Economía Aplicada is the property of FEA-RP, Universidade de Sao Paulo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The main pioneer frontier considered by geographers is the Amazonian pioneer frontier. The occupation of the Brazilian territory has been carried out through successive economic cycles. Currently, the expansion of soybean crops in Amazonia is considered as the last economic cycle involving new migrations to still unexplored areas. Mapping this frontier is necessary in order to better understand its drivers and think about efficient land use policies to struggle its progress. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for mapping the agricultural frontier in the Amazonian state of Mato Grosso (Brazil) using satellite data acquired during the 2000-2006 period. We assume that the frontier evolves through successive land-use stages such as wildlands, non-croplands, extensive croplands and intensive croplands areas. The transitions between two stages can then be monitored through land-use change analysis. A particular emphasis is given on three land-use transitions named 'deforestation', 'economic' and 'intensification sub-frontiers'. In order to adapt this model for the use of remote sensing data, we defined (1) a relevant spatial scale corresponding to an agrarian locality, (2) relevant indices to qualify the land-use types and (3) rules applied on land-use types to define the frontier's location. Our results highlight the dynamic of the agricultural frontier towards northern areas. We identified four main agricultural regions with different levels of agricultural intensification. We finally discuss these results with respect to governmental policies and economics for a better understanding of the frontier's dynamic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper analyzes the exchange rate exposure of a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies from 1999 to 2009. The results confirm the importance of using nonlinear models to address companies'' exchange rate exposure. The results indicate that when compared to the linear model commonly used in literature, the nonlinear model leads to an increase in the number of firms exposed to exchange rate fluctuations, which allows a more accurate analysis of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the value of firms. In addition, the paper shows that exporters and companies that hold foreign currency denominated debt are more likely to be exposed to exchange rate fluctuations and that the nonlinearity of companies'' foreign exchange exposure is associated with the use of foreign currency derivatives. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Debates on banking regulation have increasingly given rise to a discussion on the relationship between the loan loss provision and business cycles. Provisioning rules for credit losses for banks in Brazil have mixed system characteristics, which could theoretically lead banks to pro-cyclical or countercyclical behavior, which reinforces the need for research to indicate what has actually been the effect of these provisions in the economy. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between banks' provisioning for credit losses and business cycles in Brazil, in an attempt to confirm its nature, a condition capable of avoiding potentiating the effects of economic contraction or expansion. Using an econometric model with accounting and macroeconomic variables, the survey involved 91 commercial banks in the period from 2001 to 2012. Confirming that the delay in payments of principal and charges is a key condition for the recognition of banking provisions in Brazil, which highlights its predominantly retrospective nature, the results point to the existence of a pro-cyclical behavior by the banks surveyed, indicating that when GDP is on the rise, provisions tend to fall and vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the stagnation of Brazilian exports of products other than coffee during the postwar period. Export stagnation led to a pattern of autarkic development. The combination of growing domestic demand and income-inelastic supply of imports put pressure on the real exchange rate. As the external value of the cruzeiro depreciated more rapidly than the internal inflation, relative prices moved to favor domestic producers for many new products, leading to the establishment of many new industries producing only for the internal market, and very rapid growth based on import substitution. This process was self-sustaining, as import substitution coupled with export stagnation in one period lowered the equilibrium exchange rate for imports, and stimulated further import substitution in the next. Because of the increasing inelasticity of domestic production with respect to downward movements of the exchange rate, however, import substitution became a progressively more expensive way both of saving foreign exchange and of generating growth.

Copyright of Geosul is the property of Geosul and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Following boom-and-bust economic cycles provoked by Brazilian governmental attempts to integrate Indigenous peoples into national society, it is approximately since the beginning of the 2000s that Brazilian Indigenous peoples came to be viewed officially as "poor" and victims of "hunger." Consequently, the national indigenist agency and other State entities started to conceive and implement diverse initiatives that ultimately injected money and resources into Indigenous communities. In 2019 we undertook an ethnographic study in three A'uwẽ (Xavante) communities in the Pimentel Barbosa Indigenous Reserve, Central Brazil, with the objective of analyzing how people understand and pursue food security. We propose that in the studied communities the complex network of A'uwẽ food reciprocity is a fundamental strategy for mitigating hunger and acute lack of food. We show that among the A'uwẽ, the hybrid economy that developed since the 1970s has proved resilient to dramatic transformations and uncertainty in the availability and characteristics of external government inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show how changes in the volatility of the real interest rate at which small open emerging economies borrow have an important effect on variables like output, consumption, investment, and hours. We start by documenting the strong evidence of time-varying volatility in the real interest rates faced by four emerging economies: Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, and Venezuela. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for real interest rates. Then, we feed this process in a standard small open economy business cycle model. We find that an increase in real interest rate volatility triggers a fall in output, consumption, investment, hours, and debt. (JEL E13, E20, E32, E43, F32, F43, 011) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the merits of contemporary economic analysis is its capacity to offer accounts of choice behavior that dispense with details of the complex decision machinery. The starting point of this paper is the concern with the important methodological debate about whether economics might offer accurate predictions and explanations of actual behavior without any reference to psychological presuppositions. Inspired by an exercise of rational reconstruction of ideas, I aim to offer an interpretation of the process of freeing economic analysis from psychology at the end of the 19th century and the contemporary resurrection of behavioral approaches in the late 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper examines the Brazilian experience from the 'Economic Miracle' to the 'Lost Decade'. Its aim is to advance an alternative measurement of the flows of extraordinary wealth (i.e. ground-rent and net external credit) available for appropriation in the Brazilian economy and to asses their relevance in sustaining the process of accumulation of industrial capital. That is done in order to provide further and more accurate evidence to the claim that the evolution of the Brazilian process of capital accumulation has been extremely dependent on the evolution of those masses of extraordinary wealth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The State and its reasons: the 2nd PND. This paper intends to contribute to the debate on the reasons why the Geisel administration (1974-78) chose — as it faced an adverse conjuncture — an accelerated growth agenda which was materialized in the 2nd PND (National Development Plan). In order to do so, it resorts to a methodological definition which is based upon an institutionalist approach and favors the interaction between the political and the economic variables. Contradicting the literature that interprets the strong presence of the State and the regional decentralization of the 2nd PND as signs of neopatrimonialism, it is advocated that this category of analysis is inadequate to explain the government's choice, although this aspect is embedded in the Brazilian social-historical formation. The political rationality of the plan must be investigated in the conjuncture itself, marked by the liberalization project, which does not clash with the plan's economic rationality — on the contrary, it is complemented by it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper was to use an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), to perform planialtimetric mapping of an erosive feature located in Rio Claro Municipality, Rio de Janeiro State. The study area is located within Piraí drainage basin, a tributary of Paraíba do Sul river. Paraíba do Sul valley presents a history of use and occupation strongly linked to the economic cycles of Brazil, where the native forest of the Atlantic Forest biome was cleared, in order to use the soil in a profitable way, making the exploration of sugar cane, coffee growing and opening of areas for pasture. The use of VANTs in geomorphological research effectively enabled a complete assessment of the erosion feature, where it was possible to make cross sections and longitudinal profiles, calculation of length, width and total area. In addition to being an equipment that facilitates the understanding and monitoring of areas of interest, the use of VANT's allow the capture of images of high resolution and precision, which are subsequently processed, giving rise to new ways of assessing the feature. To complement the research work, soil samples were collected from the soil surface layer for determining their chemical and physical properties. The results of the analyzes indicate that the soil presents favourable conditions for its erodibility, presenting high silt and fine sand content, high bulk density and low organic matter content and aggregate stability. Such properties, together with land use and inadequate management, generate highly impacted areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics / Economía Aplicada is the property of FEA-RP, Universidade de Sao Paulo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics / Economía Aplicada is the property of FEA-RP, Universidade de Sao Paulo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Using regional gross product data for Argentina and Brazil over the period 1961–2000, we find that business cycle synchronization within countries is substantially larger than across them. Factors such as monetary policy and large country-specific shocks play a significant role in explaining this observed border effect. Furthermore, our GMM single and multiple equation estimates based on Brazilian states and Argentinean national data provide indicative evidence that the higher level of trade among regions within a country is an important factor that accounts for differences in output correlations across countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article looks into the forecasts made by economist Bresser Pereira on the politics and economy of Brazil for the year 1989 and beyond. It examines the views of Pereira on the problem of inflation, the social pact, the November 1989 elections and the so-called Summer Plan. Based on the author's research, the Bresser Plan, also known as Novo Cruzado, had failed because Pereira's proposals were opposed by the business community and the political parties due to their economic effects. Pereira provided a unit for readjusting wages in relation to price increases despite the fact that he ended the wages trigger incorporated into the Cruzado Plan.