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The current situation of the Romanian economy must be understood beginning from the analysis of the main measures of fiscal-budgetary policy applied over the last years by the public authority. In general, the Romanian fiscal policy (before and after accession) was procyclical. However, we continue by presenting some of its characteristics for the past years when we underwent the last ascending phase of the economic cycle. Actually, Romania's GDP exceeded constantly the potential level, and the demand surplus became predominant, generating inflationary pressures. Maintaining the expansionist level of the fiscal policy, in the conditions of a positive deviation of GDP, as of 2017, and opting-out regarding the structural deficit target contributed to affecting the stability of public finances, on short-and medium-term. Romania entered into an extremely difficult economic context, generated by the pandemic, with an extremely narrow fiscal space which limited a lot the possibilities of combating the effects of the pandemic. In this paper we analyzed a period limited to the year 2020, because we consider this time as marking the end of an economic cycle in a period of peace and economic calm, as another is about to begin based on the new realities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present context, the consumption and saving patterns are subjected to change both locally and worldwide. The evidence on consumption reveals the importance of data handling and processing using the most relevant tools available. This research paper looks into official statistics data of Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) for milling and baking products and is based on seasonal adjustment. As such, JDemetra+ software is selected as officially recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment. First section presents the official software recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment, while section two discusses the characteristics and functionalities of the software. Furthermore, the following section presents the selected seasonal adjustment technique and describes the usage of monthly data. Section four analysing the results of all the seasonality tests for the selected series is followed next by a brief concluding remarks and observations section. Moreover, in terms of the conducted analysis, the paper examines to test JDemetra+ 3.0.0 pre-release version against JDemetra+ 2.2.4. Evidence favouring JDemetra+ 2.2.4 is obtained, the results showing that some new strategies might be needed in order to obtain better results on seasonal adjustment process using TRAMO-SEATS in JDemetra+ 3.0.0. Seasonal adjustment practitioners in official statistics should be aware and recognize the impact of statistical package selection. In this respect, optimal selection of analysis procedures is needed in the evaluation of a series and thus migrating from JDemetra+ 2.2.4 to JDemetra+ 3.0.0 is problematic without employing resources in developing appropriate strategies for improvement of the obtained results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we determine the potential economic growth in Romania using three statistical univariate filters. The techniques used are Hodrick-Prescott (HP), Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF) and Baxter-King (BK) filters. According to our calculations, HP outperforms the other two filters for the pre-crisis period but offers poor end-sample estimates as expected. During the economic crisis, all models indicate a slowdown of the potential growth in Romania. The most reliable estimate for 2011 is offered by CF band-pass filter. BK filter performs poorly in the sample period with the exception of the estimate for 2008 and does not provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic simultaneously affected most economic sectors and has already caused severe worldwide social and economic damage. In response, authorities introduced social distancing measures, with an adverse impact on economic activity. If policymakers were aware of the existing vulnerabilities, including those derived from the positioning on the business cycle, resilience could have been increased. The aim of this article is to describe various methods of dating business cycles in several Central and Eastern European (C.E.E.) countries, namely Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania. Furthermore, a Probit model regarding the probability of a recession is estimated, confirming the adverse effects of the pandemic, in contrast with a brightening outlook given vaccination campaigns and the E.U. recovery package. However, in case of the Romanian economy, an in-sample estimation showed a high probability of negative growth rates even in a pre-pandemic world, due to the high macroeconomic imbalances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is essential that a high level of real convergence is achieved before joining the euro area, as major differences can lead to difficulties in managing the business cycles, in the absence of an independent monetary policy. Therefore, each country should ensure a sufficient level of GDP per capita before the accession. But what can be considered sufficient? Looking back, most euro candidates had a GDP per capita level of 70%-80% of the EU level when adopting the euro currency. Although Romania has made significant progress lately, the following still need to be achieved: labor market reforms, massive infrastructure investments, reducing the regional gaps, increasing innovation investments, and growing budget revenues. The purpose of this paper is to identify the economic and social factors that influence real convergence in Romania, as we believe that working towards increasing real convergence will create the right framework for improving nominal convergence performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to study the impact of remittances upon the origin country of emigrants. In order to achieve our purpose, we have performed a quantitative analysis by using econometric models to highlight the correlation and the causality between the studied variables. The empirical research focused on two directions: first, we studied if the remittances cycle is more stable over the business cycle than private capital flows and secondly, we analysed the influence of the inflow of remittances on the economic activity in CEE countries, with emphasis on Romania. Our results are in accordance with the recent studies in the field and conclude that the inflow of remittances is more stable over the business cycle but does not stimulate economic growth in Romania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with issues related to the increase in the cost of purchasing energy, following the secondary effects related to the liberalization of the markets, which will lead the main clients from the business environment in Romania to conclude that the increase in the cost of energy is a consequence of the decisions established by the main players in the market, those who provide energy and natural gas, decisions aimed at maximizing their profit. In a much more detailed research, a series of remarks can be made, such as that at the basis of the increase in the purchase regarding the fluctuations in the cost of natural gas cost variations of energy and natural gas that consumers have to bear, there are a multitude of aspects imposed by the European Union. and energy, fluctuations that have proven to have created fluctuations in the business environment in our country over time. Following the research carried out, we can conclude that the main causes of the energy and natural gas market that create imbalances in the business environment are: - stock market fluctuations which in the current context have proven to be very dynamic and very unpredictable in extremely sudden changes; - energy import and transformations generated by cross-border flows; - the return to the consumption recorded before the pandemic period; - the reorganization of the geopolitical space based on the decisions imposed by the Russian Federation has a very big impact; - non-exploitation of natural gas stocks from warehouses to the maximum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the fiscal inspection procedures and financial control undertaken by the Romanian fiscal authorities, a special place and an everyday more increasing share is occupied by the transactions between Romanian companies with affiliated entities. The principle that should stay at the foundation of these transactions is that every agreement of purchase or sale between affiliates should be made at the market price. This paper aims to present methodological aspects regarding transfer pricing and to underline the evolution and the expectations related to this subject in Romania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper considers the role of fiscal policy as a component of stabilization policy in Romania, based on the assumption that some relevant relations exist between credit cycles and fiscal policy over the business cycle. The paper analyses the relations between the banking sector fluctuations and taxation and public spending during 2008-2011. Our research is based upon market values of performance assessment – Residual Income, Market Value Added, Earnings per Share, and Price to Earnings ratio - which offer a more realistic view regarding the evolution of banking institutions value reflecting investor''s decisions and anticipations. Connecting the theory to Romanian banking system data we find that some of the bad financial performance associated with this period is to be explained by the contraction of the demand and not necessary with the earnings obtained by the Romanian listed banking institutions. According to our study, the evidence supports claims that Romanian fiscal policy is pro-cyclical and hence destabilizing over the analysing period. The aim of the paper is to provide some empirical basis for the argument that pro-cyclical fiscal policy does not assist in repairing the financial system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper it was studied the cyclical and structural convergence between Romanian and Euro Zone''s economies in a Minnesota Priors framework. For this purpose we called the Bayesian econometrics to estimate a Structural Vector Autoregression model SVAR with Gibbs Sampling. The methodological framework called in this paper is proposed by experts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota and from here the name of Minnesota Prior where a priori were introduced the hypothesis that endogenous variables follow different forms of a Markov first order autoregressive model, namely a Random Walk or an AR model. Focusing here especially on consumption cycles and using the relations provided by the theory, I was intended in study the asymmetries between supply and demand shocks in the case of Romanian and Euro Area economies. A higher correlation of shocks between the two studied economies indicates a structural similarity. In addition, for this purpose I involved several methods to ensure robustness checks in regard with the correlation of the two types of structural shocks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Detrending time series trend is a very important research topic for the economics of economic cycles, yet up to this moment no consensus has been reached on the methods used, which makes it a controversial topic. The papers made on the comparative analysis of time series exclusion trend are based on relatively large samples as to what we have available in Romania. The initiation of the passage to a market economy starting with 1989 meant for Romania changes in statistical records at that time and afterwards, therefore the samples we have available for the study are relatively limited as to samples from developed countries. Moreover, while the analysis for USA is made on values of the gross domestic product at a monthly rate, for Romania the values for the gross domestic product we have available are at most at a quarterly rate since 1998. Our analysis was conducted on the business cycles of variables representing fundamental indicators of the evolution of an economy on a quarterly basis during 1998.1 - 2011.3: gross domestic product, the final consumption, the working hours, the real wages, the productivity and the capital stock. To estimate the business cycles of variables we took into consideration the polynomial functions of time, the first order differences, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and Hodrick-Prescott filter. The results obtained are in compliance with the previous research performed on the economies of other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a synthesis of a theoretical study realized within the research contract having as theme "The model for the forecast of the real economy evolution and for the financial market system from Romania using elements from the open systems thermodynamics", a project that proposes to create an ecometric model which allows to forecast Romania's real economy as well as the financial system evolution from Romania. The first part brings forward the relation between the financial system and the financial crisis and develops the idea according to which an economy can exploit its potential of growth only in the conditions of a well functioning of the financial system which have to assure the necessary investments financing at minimum costs, but also the adequate application and transmission of the monetary policy with effects on the financial stability. The second part of the paper approaches the problematic of the financial crisis effects on the financial systems stability. The financial system instability can lead to losses in the real economy, to financial markets perturbation, to prices changes, to investments blocking and, in the end, to economical growth decline and even to economical growth stopping. In the third part the financial systems stability from the emerging economies in the light of the contagion and movement effects of the cross-border capital waves as a result of globalization is analyzed and, in the end, some conclusions are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries from all over the world are taking measures in order to counter the effects of the global financial crisis, including stimulus packs, temporary actions, the acceleration of implementation of previous measures or all the measures at the same time. It is for sure that the crisis is not coming to an end despite all these measures and some experts are concerned regarding the size and the length of the crisis. In this paper we will refer to the effects of the global financial crisis, needed measures to counter its effects and potential influence of the crisis on Romania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Romanian capital market is facing the most serious crisis from its modern period of existence and this is determined by local factors and especially by external factors which are depending on the global financial crisis. In this paper we try to see: which was the evolution of the capital market in Romania, which are the causes that led to the actual crisis and which are the consequences of this crisis and the prospects of our capital market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of the crisis, particularly financial ones, the generating factors and the applicable patterns to return to normality is a consistent and timely concern of researchers in economics. After the advent of the global crisis in mid- 2007, many researchers recognized internationally and nationally formulated theories about the causes, effects and intensity of the current crisis, providing reference works in the field. The starting point of the research puts in the spotlight the fact that the deepest crises have their "origins" in developed countries, but are funded by the emerging countries. In the context of this "reality" the economy seeks to predict the possible behaviours in configuration of a context to return to normality, where unexpected trends and consequences of unintended effects require completion of the theory deficit in Romanian economic literature regarding the economic effects caused by subjective decision, especially political decisions. Carrying out research with a high degree of completeness, necessarily requires knowledge and understanding of the history of financial crises, starting with the Great Depression, focusing on the implications on the Romanian economy, and in particular, on the intervention models commonly used in order to identify "optimal model" that allows escalation of the current crisis, but also a more accurate predictability of future adverse events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The idea that we need a "new economy" is that the entire economic system must be radically restructured taking into considerations the new global changes - economic and financial crisis. Also we will see what "changing the system" means is a matter of considerable debate. The paper demonstrate that the woman is going to become an important manager in business and in the same time, a voice able to be headed in all places of the world. As study case I'll present Romanian business women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we proposed ourselves to analyze the international macroeconomic and financial environment that has registered major negative changes since the international financial crisis. Thus, the intensity of the economic and financial crisis has been underestimated by authorities worldwide. Financial results for 2009, reported by European banks are the mirror of a new financial hierarchy on the continent. Only now, after almost three years after the first sub prime market turmoil, those banks come to light for that the crisis was the perfect opportunity to grow. According to the National Bank of Romania Report, in Romania, the main challenges posed by the external sector refer to the worsening perception of risks, including contagion effects from the adverse regional developments, the contraction of external markets, the less readily available external financing and the replacement of global liquidity risk by solvency risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the stimulating effect of measures taken by the central bank, we notice the tendency of stagnation of non-government credit, started in the fourth quarter of 2008. Delayed economic recovery, credit costs still high and the manifestation of a more cautious attitude of banks, and customers, indicated the maintaining of current trends for the year 2011. Therefore, in this paper, we proposed ourselves to analyze the influence of the GDP and interest rate on the non-government credit using the regression function. We will then establish the correlations between these indicators, emphasize the changes that appeared over the years and the measures to be taken in order to improve the loan portfolio quality in the Romanian banking system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is nationalization? Nowadays, the concept of nationalization has become so controversial and debated thus many of us depart from the true meaning of the term, preferring to remove from it a concept associated with economic crisis, the financial collapsed site and a decline overall financial system. In fact, nationalization is a natural economic cycle, a primary way - if you can call it this way - to redress an economic crisis and to save one of the most vital branches of the economy - the bank branch. This paper proposes an analysis of the concept of nationalization, focusing on the nationalization of banks, as major step in the process of economic crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this study consists of carrying out a qualitative and quantitative analysis that should highlight the impact of the fiscal policy on the economic cycle in Romania. The work proposes the realization of an economic table with an accent on the concept of fiscal policy and the corelation of this concept with the cyclic evolution. To be explained and interpreted to the failure of predictable linearity, it is necessary to define and classify the types of fiscal policy. Following economic globalization and synchronization, the economic cycles are subscribed to a convergence proces, driving the world, regional and romanian economy. Being different in intensity, we can say that cyclic floats are determined by factors related to the normal functioning of economic activity, by the interdependeces between its components and this is regulary reflected on the gross domestic product and the amount of tax revenue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When redesigning the overall management of companies with the intent to adapt them to the current market conditions, cost reduction plays a crucial role, from the private sector to the public one. Thus, expenditure management currently put into practice by Romanian manager's place an emphasis on most areas, from the material ones to the salary ones. In this article we deal with the integration of the cost reduction strategy as proficiently as possible within the overall extremely needed management measures, to more successfully establish the market/ objectives defense and attack strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]