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Capital reallocation between firms is procyclical and leads to variations in measured aggregate productivity. In this paper, we ask how much of the cyclical variation in measured productivity is the consequence of capital reallocation. We build a heterogeneous‐firm model to study the effects of exogenous shocks to total factor productivity (TFP) and to the costs of reallocation. These shocks cause an endogenous cyclicality of measured aggregate productivity. Only a model driven by exogenous TFP shocks is able to generate both data‐consistent cyclical movements in reallocation and sizeable variations in measured aggregate productivity. We find that capital reallocation does not play a major role in amplifying aggregate productivity variations over the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distributed energy system (DES) represents an innovative approach to energy generation and distribution that promotes decentralization and diversification of energy sources. DESs can offer numerous benefits, including increased resiliency, reduced transmission losses, improved efficiency, and lower carbon emissions. The optimal design of a DES requires careful consideration of various factors such as geographical location, climate conditions, and energy demand patterns. This paper utilizes a multi-objective genetic algorithm to optimize the combination of technologies and their corresponding sizes in a distributed energy system for three types of commercial buildings—hospitals, large offices, and large hotels across eight different climate zones in the U.S. A range of technologies are considered for integration into the DES. These technologies include photovoltaic systems, wind turbines, combined heat and power systems, solar thermal collectors, and electrical and thermal energy storage. The two objectives considered are maximizing the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and minimizing the life cycle costs for the DES. The purpose of this study is to optimize and evaluate the multi-objective design of distributed energy systems aimed at decentralizing and diversifying energy sources. The analysis of optimized DES designs across all 24 case scenarios shows that a balance between cost saving and emission reduction has been achieved. Although this study primarily focuses on specific buildings and climate zones, the methods and findings can be adapted for a wider variety of building types across different geographical locations, thus paving the way for more widespread adoption of optimized distributed energy systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies how interaction between economic decision-making and environmental awareness affects US business cycle and GHG emissions in a two-sector DSGE model. We emphasize the mechanisms that relate carbon emissions dynamics, consumer behavior, and environmental awareness in a framework incorporating two classes of goods (i.e., "clean" and "dirty"). This paper offers three main results. First, green consumption preferences play a key role in emissions reduction when they internalize emissions concentrations. Second, a green preference shock is the second source of fluctuation in many sectoral variables and stabilizes the business cycle. Third, a pollutant supply shock leads to sustainable consumption procyclicality documented in US data, only if households are environmentally aware. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper aims to evaluate the performances of the wavelet, Hodrick–Prescott (HP), and Baxter–King (BK) filters in extracting cyclical information and to use an appropriate method to analyze China's business cycles. First, we use a second‐order autoregression (AR (2)) and random walk, based on Monte Carlo simulation experiments, to generate the data‐generating processes (DGPs) with different frequency characteristics. Second, the HP, BK, and wavelet filters are applied to extract the cyclical components of the respective DGPs. Third, the filtering abilities of the three methods are statistically compared. The results show the following: (1) Under the condition that the DGP is low frequency (long cycle) and trend dominated, the filtering performance of the three methods will remain unsatisfactory. (2) If the DGP is high frequency (short cycle), all three methods can serve as effective methods regardless of whether they are trend dominated or cycle dominated. However, it can be seen that the BK and wavelet filters present better performance than the HP filter. (3) In other cases, better filtering performances can be observed in the wavelet. Finally, the three methods are applied to estimate China's business cycles. In conclusion, this paper argues that the wavelet can effectively replace HP and BK filters to extract cyclical components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the strategic goal of building a domestic economic cycle, the development quality of social e-commerce in my country needs to be improved urgently. The main reason for the low quality of social e-commerce development in my country is that the natural advantages of social e-commerce, such as high-efficiency dissemination of information and increased consumer utility due to improper sales model design, cannot play a role. However, the lack of research on social e-commerce systems makes it difficult for retailers to obtain effective theoretical guidance for their sales model design. Based on this, this paper takes the three most important and important social e-commerce sales models in my country at present—recommended reward model, online group purchase model, and online crowdfunding model as the research objects, and systematically analyzes the consumer recommendation behaviors in the three sales models. By analyzing and market equilibrium, while improving the theoretical research of social e-commerce, it also provides theoretical basis and policy guidance for the optimal mode design of social e-commerce under different sales modes. This paper considers the consumer recommendation behavior in social networks and analyzes the main characteristics of the three sales models in view of the development status and specific problems of social e-commerce in my country, and then constructs retailer-existing consumer-potential The three-agent dynamic Stackelberg game model of consumers analyzes the influence mechanism and market equilibrium of consumer recommendation behavior under three sales models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important macro-economic issue of developed and developing countries is how best to decompose an economic time series into permanent (trend) and transitory (cycle) components. The issue is vital in empirical macroeconomics since, among other things, it relates to how one can estimate the output gap-the deviation of an economy's output from its potential or trend output. This paper considers how well the unobserved components model and the Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter decomposes real gross domestic product (GDP) in a small island developing state, the state of Barbados. The correlated unobserved components model for Barbados studied in the Agbeyegbe (2020) is modified to allow a second-order Markov trend. The effect of this modification is to make it possible to recover the HP trend as a particular case. The paper then compares several methods useful for trend decomposition of real GDP in Barbados. The competing methods are variants of two widely used trend-cycle decompositions of GDP that give markedly different estimates. Namely, methods based on the unobserved components model (UC) and the HP filter. The correlated unobserved components model produces smaller output gaps in amplitude, whereas the HP filter generates significant and persistent cycles. More specifically, the methods are: (i) the HP filter; (ii) an augmented HP filter (HP-AR), that allows for cyclical components to be serially correlated, introduced by Grant and Chan (2017b); (iii) the correlated unobserved components model (UCUR), without a break; (iv) the correlated unobserved components model (UCUR-t), with a break at time t; and (v) a correlated unobserved components model that allows for a second-order Markov trend process UCUR-2M. The result shows that for Barbados, with data covering the period 1967-2017, the correlated unobserved components model that allows for a break in trend fits the data better than the HP specification. These results are significant from a policy perspective. Knowing the correct duration of the business cycle is essential to providing appropriate recommendations; the result argues against the use of HP-filter in analyzing Barbados' business cycle. The result also finds that for Barbados, it is empirically important to correlate permanent and transitory shocks. By ignoring this correlation, researchers risk providing a misleading analysis of how the Barbadian economy works. JEL Classifications: E31, C11, C15, and C22 Keywords: Bayesian model comparison, Barbados, Out-put Gap, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Unobserved Components., INTRODUCTION An important macro-economic issue of interest is how best to decompose an economic time series into permanent(trend) and transitory (cycle) components. Though the issue is often about real gross [...]

This paper investigates how different types of monetary policy have affected house prices in Finland, a small euro area economy that has experienced pronounced business cycles over time. The analyses are carried out using the Bayesian structural vector autoregressive approach. Monetary policy interest rate shocks and balance sheet shocks are identified using zero and sign restrictions. The results reveal that both a policy interest rate shock and a balance sheet shock have a positive and temporary impact on house prices in Finland, with the response to a balance sheet shock being smaller and fading out faster. The peak of the effect of a policy rate shock on house prices in Finland arrives faster than in the whole euro area but the magnitudes of the peak impact are similar. The effect of a balance sheet shock on house prices is not notably different in Finland to what it is in the whole euro area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to provide the estimates of returns to schooling using consistent methodology and comparable set of data for a long time horizon for a country undergoing economic transition. Second, the paper aims to verify if returns to schooling in Poland were pro-cyclical or counter-cyclical. Design/methodology/approach: The paper is based on the human capital theory in estimating the wage returns to years of schooling controlling additionally for unemployment rates at a regional level. Data come from a collection of Polish individual LFS waves for the period 1995–2017. Findings: Returns to schooling in Poland were increasing until 2006 and declining afterwards unveiling the supply side effects domination. The estimates suggested counter-cyclicality of returns in Poland. Research limitations/implications: Using LFS data made it impossible to control for ability bias therefore it is possible that the estimates are somewhat biased (the literature however suggests that the extent of the bias is likely to be small). It might still be argued that using consistent methodology for the whole period of analysis still offers valuable insight into returns evolution. Originality/value: This paper finds a reversal of returns trend after 2006 suggesting the period after accession to EU exhibited a supply side effect domination. The findings on counter-cyclicality of returns to education in Poland have not yet been documented in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economists both failed to predict the global financial crisis and underestimated its consequences for the broader economy. Focusing on the second of these failures, this paper makes two contributions. First, I review research since the crisis on the role of credit factors in the decisions of households, firms, and financial intermediaries and in macroeconomic modeling. This research provides broad support for the view that credit market developments deserve greater attention from macroeconomists, not only for analyzing the economic effects of financial crises but in the study of ordinary business cycles as well. Second, I provide new evidence on the channels by which the recent financial crisis depressed economic activity in the United States. Although the deterioration of household balance sheets and the associated deleveraging likely exacerbated the initial economic downturn and the slowness of the recovery, I find that the unusual severity of the Great Recession was due primarily to the panic in funding and securitization markets, which disrupted the supply of credit. This finding helps to justify the government's extraordinary efforts to stem the panic in order to avoid greater damage to the real economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty is a global problem, and fighting it is a historical task faced by humanity. The outbreak of poverty crises has a certain cyclicality, and the development of economic research may react to poverty cycles. To validate this view, we take the United States as an empirical example and establish a quantitative research architecture based on the bibliometrics and econometrics. In the first place, we conduct a bibliometric analysis of selected search terms relevant to poverty cycles. After that, the time-series data in the actual economy are collected for reflecting the trends and fluctuations in economic activity affected by poverty cycles. Meanwhile, with both bibliometric and economic data, a detrending measure via the band-pass (BP) filter is performed to estimate cycles. Finally, the Granger causality tests are implemented to explore the interaction between poverty cycles and economic research directly. As a supplement, this paper also provides a quantitative evaluation analysis, namely impulse-response functions, to investigate the influence of economic variables on bibliometric ones. The final results show there indeed exists an impact of poverty cycles in economic activity on relevant discussions in the scientific literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper supplements a learning‐by‐doing real business cycle model with endogenous organizational forgetting. Empirical evidence shows that the accumulated experience decay rate is not constant over the business cycle, but that forgetting is a function of economic activity. Learning reinforces the effects of productivity shocks, and organizational forgetting exacerbates their impact and increases their persistence. This is of particular interest when a negative productivity shock hits the economy, as the increasing speed of forgetting aggravates the negative shock and delays recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a large developing country, China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and its relationship to trade have always been subjects of extensive scrutiny in academic circles. With the continuous advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative (BRI), the pace of overseas expansion by Chinese firms has accelerated. This paper theoretically constructs a firm heterogeneity model of China's OFDI and bilateral trade, and conducts research based on panel data of China's OFDI in countries along the BRI from 2003 to 2019. The results show that China's OFDI can substantially enhance the potential for bilateral trade, and this conclusion remains robust after overcoming endogeneity and economic fluctuations. In a heterogeneity test, China's OFDI in countries along the "Land Silk Road" is shown to have a greater effect on trade potential than in countries along the "Maritime Silk Road." In the controlled test, China's OFDI to BRI countries has a greater role in upgrading trade potential than investment in other trading powerhouses. China's OFDI can promote the economic development of host countries along the BRI by strengthening the potential for bilateral trade. The results of this study are not only conducive to the "going global" of Chinese enterprises but also of practical significance for host countries to achieve high-quality economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the future of the Stability and Growth Pact (hereafter SGP). Although Neoclassical economic models argue that strict fiscal and monetary rules minimize moral hazard and crowding out, in practice many governments adopt fiscal expansion (in recent years in the form of non-standard monetary measures) to mitigate market failures, consequently rethinking monetary rules and targets. Government spending and countercyclical policies are essential tools for soothing business cycles and other market failures. To this end, we empirically test whether current and past forms of the SGP have led to greater convergence, while we critically assess and investigate a possible SGP reform. By adopting more flexible rules, in terms of government spending and fiscal expansion, the Economic and Monetary Union (hereafter EMU) could yield multiple positive spillover effects in long-term economic growth under specific terms and conditions, such as green conditionalities. We conclude that to mitigate the triple crisis threat (economic, environmental and health), what is mostly needed are reforms in the form of fiscal federalism, such as common debt issuance (Eurobonds) that enhance the ability of the EMU to tackle the consequences of the aforementioned crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper experimentally investigates the provision of real-time feedback about school assignments during the preference reporting period in three widely employed mechanisms: deferred acceptance, top trading cycles, and the Boston mechanism. Adaptive models predict that greater sensitivity to tentative assignments during the reporting period will produce more equilibrium assignments in all three mechanisms. Consistent with adaptive predictions, real-time assignment feedback consistently increased equilibrium assignments but did not increase truthful reporting. These findings suggest that providing feedback about assignments during the preference reporting period could help student assignment mechanisms more reliably achieve policy goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide a comprehensive analysis of income inequality and income dynamics for Germany over the last two decades. Combining personal income tax and social security data allows us--for the first time--to offer a complete picture of the distribution of annual earnings in Germany. We find that cross-sectional inequality rose until 2009 for men and women. After the Great Recession, inequality continued to rise at a slower rate for men and fell slightly for women due to compression at the lower tail. We further document substantial gender differences in average earnings and inequality over the life cycle. While for men earnings rise and inequality falls as they grow older, many women reduce working hours when starting a family such that average earnings fall and inequality increases. Men's earnings changes are on average smaller than women's but are substantially more affected by the business cycle. During the Great Recession, men's earnings losses become magnified and gains are attenuated. Apart from recession years, earnings changes are significantly right-skewed reflecting the good overall state of the German labor market and increasing labor supply. In the second part of the paper, we study the distribution of total income including incomes of self-employed, business owners, and landlords. We find that total inequality increased significantly more than earnings inequality. Regarding income dynamics, entrepreneurs' income changes are more dispersed, less skewed, less leptokurtic, and less dependent on average past income than workers' income changes. Finally, we find that top income earners have become less likely to fall out of the top 1 and 0.1%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: In examining an economic fluctuation, researchers often refer to the theories of impaired access to capital which mostly explain, from the perspective of bank lending supplies, a shock in firm's access to investment would decrease its capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period. However, some studies show that this is not always the case. A demand shock theory can explain the decrease in firm's capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period, but there should be no causal link between the two. This is because firms naturally do not invest during crisis period because of a decrease in investment wealth during crisis period. This paper aims to examine these theories with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach: The change in firms' capital expenditure and net debt issuance is analyzed using a non-parametric difference-in-difference and matching estimator across four firm-dimensions to see whether the implications of the supply shock theory apply to the current crisis or if that firms naturally do not invest during the crisis. In addition, this paper provides the result of panel regression to confirm the causal link between firms' investment funds and capital expenditure, with an addition of consumer confidence index to accommodate the implications of the demand shock theory. Findings: The results of this paper show that the implications of the supply shock theory cannot explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. Rather, the results suggest that firms naturally do not want to invest during the crisis and that the demand shock can better explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. This is confirmed by the result of panel regression which shows that only consumer confidence index has a significant positive relationship with firms' capital expenditure. Originality/value: This is the first study to examine the theory of impaired access to capital with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study bridges the gap between in previous research on the synchronization between financial and business cycles over a long period. Using the data for the UK from 1270 to 2016 we analyze the synchronization between financial and business cycles using spectral Granger causality (Breitung & Candelon, 2006). Our paper brings several important findings to the discussion on the financial and business cycle link. Our paper is the first one (to the best of our knowledge) that use data over a long period spanning several centuries. We use spectral analysis and advanced spectral analysis (SSA) and (MSSA) to study the relationship between financial and business cycles in the long run. Paper results show financial and business cycles series moves along over the medium-term spectrum. We find a strong link between the cyclical component in the output (real GDP series) and the cyclical component in the financial series (housing price, credit). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The factors of industry environment risks to enterprise financial activities are considered; seven kinds of industry environment risks influencing enterprise financial activities are chosen as state variables. The eighth paper is "Nonlinear Effect Analysis of Electricity Price on Household Electricity Consumption" by Zhang and Wen; they investigated the scenario effect of per capita income and regional differences in urbanization development on the relationship between electricity sales price and urban household electricity consumption. Accurate energy forecasting is essential to achieve greater efficiency and reliability in power system operation and security, energy pricing problems, and scheduling and planning of energy supply systems, among other areas. [Extracted from the article]

This paper applies the hidden Markov switching dynamic regression (MSDR) model to estimate transition probabilities of the Hungarian GDP between recessionary and expansionary periods. The transition probabilities are then compared to the OECD Hungarian binary business cycle indicator to assess the predictive power of the model. The paper proposes a linear model with a mean and a homoscedastic component. The level of symmetricity between the GDP and business cycles is explained by the panel data variables (Unemployment rate, IPI index, Inflation, BUX year-on-year change, and 10-3 Year sovereign bond yield spreads). It is assumed in this paper that by extending the model to encompass an exogenous variable listed in the panel data, essentially making the model bivariate, the maximum likelihood function would capture the business cycle more accurately. The results show that by plugging the unemployment rate as the exogenous variable in the regression, our model's accuracy is 70%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have investigated the effect of oil price shocks on business cycles, production, prices, and labour market. The focus of this paper is primarily on the relationship between oil price changes and industrial production in G7 countries. To investigate the heterogeneity of impact, this paper investigates the effects of oil price changes based on the threshold role of net oil exports-to-GDP ratio. A panel smooth transition regression model is employed for analysis over two consecutive periods, namely, 1980–1999 and 2000–2017 as well as the combined period of 1980–2017. The results indicate that oil price hikes have a positive (negative) impact on oil-exporting (oil-importing) countries. The impact appears to be different across time periods, with the 1980–1999 sample exhibiting larger negative impact compared to 2000–2017. This hints on the effectiveness of energy diversification strategies employed post-2000 which resulted in lowering dependence on oil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether business cycles cause financial cycles or vice versa. We also assess whether the US plays a leading role in causing the domestic business and financial cycles of other countries. The literature has established that business and financial cycles are linked through several channels such as credit constraints, the real effects of financial information and the reversal of overoptimistic expectations. Our analysis evaluates the direction of Granger causality using a novel approach based on the mixed-frequency vector autoregression model for the G7 countries. Our approach exploits the fact that real economic activity measured by industrial production is observed at a higher frequency than aggregate credit. We find strong evidence of bidirectional causality between the business and financial cycles, especially in recessions. Furthermore, the US is a global leader since the US business cycle significantly affects other countries' business cycles, especially in terms of expansions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: The post-World Financial Crisis period has showed us that an application of the qualitative data focused on the expectations of the enterprises and consumers in a combination with the quantitative data in the individual economy sectors is a good prerequisite for reliable prediction of the economic cycles. Purpose of the paper: The main goal of the presented study was to test the ESI prediction capabilities and its components in a relation to the economic cycles of the EU countries in the individual time periods. Methods: The time series for the period Q1 2000 to Q4 2022 and the three selected time periods were a subject to undergo the selection of the cyclical component applying the Hodrick-Prescott filter and then, the relationship between the variables was determined employing the Pearson correlation coefficient with the time shifts. The relation of ESI and its components to GDP and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which represent the economic cycle, was analysed. The prediction volume and the cross-correlation values determined the nature of the observed cyclical variables. Findings & value added: The results of the analysis point to the fact that ESI and its components are able to ensure a high-quality prediction of the economic cycle only in the selected EU countries. Regarding the components of the ESI, the Consumer confidence indicator, Construction and Industrial confidence indicators show the best predictive capabilities. The analytical outcomes show that the ESI size and lead period vary over time and after the 2008 crisis, the ESI showed better predictive capabilities in a relation to GDP and IIP than before the crisis. The Covid 19 pandemic had a significant negative impact on the ESI predictive capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper advances understanding of multiplier-accelerator interaction in European countries in the 21st century. More than eight decades from the contributions of Keynes and Samuelson, multiplier-accelerator interaction has spawned rich and interesting literature. In this study, we examined the relationship between investment, consumption, and economic growth for European Economic Area (EEA) countries, with data observed between 2000 and 2021. We found evidence for both multiplier and accelerator effects. However, for most European economies, the multiplier effect is stronger than the accelerator effect, helping to explain the profile of economic cycles. These results present two emerging policy implications. First, investment made in Europe reacts to the rates of economic growth observed in recent periods. Investment dynamics have long been highlighted as promoters of economic growth and competitiveness. Economic agents use investments to improve their strategic position as agents of long-term socioeconomic development. Second, the estimated effects are not uniform over time; investments react in the same direction as the economic growth observed in the previous years. This nonlinearity of effects obliges all decision-makers to duly anticipate these reactions as well as obliges the academic community to further study the subject. The existence of spatial competition in the distribution of investments leads to strategic behaviours by which competing countries ensure long term national competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Politica y Sociedad is the property of Universidad Complutense de Madrid and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Distributional implications of capital account regulation is eminently context-specific. This paper examines the distributional effects of the openness of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows across 27 European countries in different economic environments around the Great Recession, covering the period 2007–2013. Our multi-level approach allows us to combine country-level variables and sociodemographic characteristics of individuals. The results highlight that the openness of FDI flows heterogeneously affects the income share of individual groups, favouring in particular the highest income classes. This finding seems to be driven by the educational level. We argue that even though highly educated individuals are present along the entire distribution, the highest income classes are especially favoured by the openness of FDI flows. This biased distributional effect of the openness of FDI flows persists throughout the years examined, regardless of the economic environment; this is due, in part, to the fact that the distribution of highly educated people is not sensitive to the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present context, the consumption and saving patterns are subjected to change both locally and worldwide. The evidence on consumption reveals the importance of data handling and processing using the most relevant tools available. This research paper looks into official statistics data of Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) for milling and baking products and is based on seasonal adjustment. As such, JDemetra+ software is selected as officially recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment. First section presents the official software recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment, while section two discusses the characteristics and functionalities of the software. Furthermore, the following section presents the selected seasonal adjustment technique and describes the usage of monthly data. Section four analysing the results of all the seasonality tests for the selected series is followed next by a brief concluding remarks and observations section. Moreover, in terms of the conducted analysis, the paper examines to test JDemetra+ 3.0.0 pre-release version against JDemetra+ 2.2.4. Evidence favouring JDemetra+ 2.2.4 is obtained, the results showing that some new strategies might be needed in order to obtain better results on seasonal adjustment process using TRAMO-SEATS in JDemetra+ 3.0.0. Seasonal adjustment practitioners in official statistics should be aware and recognize the impact of statistical package selection. In this respect, optimal selection of analysis procedures is needed in the evaluation of a series and thus migrating from JDemetra+ 2.2.4 to JDemetra+ 3.0.0 is problematic without employing resources in developing appropriate strategies for improvement of the obtained results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I discuss the increasingly prominent role of administrative micro data in macroeconomics research. This type of data proved important for interpreting the causes and consequences of the Great Recession, and it has played a crucial role in shaping economists' understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic in near real-time. I discuss a number of specific insights from this research while also illustrating some of the broader opportunities and challenges of working with administrative data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a look into what Lucas meant by the term 'analogue systems' and how he conceived making them useful. It is argued that any model with remarkable predictive success can be regarded as an analogue system, the term is thus neutral in terms of usefulness. To be useful Lucas supposed models to meet further requirements. These prerequisites are introduced in two steps in the paper. First, some properties of 'useless' Keynesian macroeconometric models come to the fore as contrasting cases. Second, it is argued that Lucas suggested two assumptions as the keys to usefulness for he conceived them as referring to genuine components of social reality and hence as true propositions. One is money as a causal instrument and the other is the choice-theoretic framework to describe the causal mechanisms underlying large-scale fluctuations. Extensive quotes from Lucas's unpublished materials underpin the claims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hardly any studies have investigated the impact of migrant remittances on economic growth (EG) and inequality in the Western Balkans as a whole (WB6). Using the method of instrumental variables (VI), the findings show that while remittances influence economic growth, their inflow also promotes a high level of migration and absorbs a large workforce by influencing the labor market and encouraging uncontrolled individual relocation. This paper also reveals that although remittances have eased income inequalities the share of remittances in a country's economy has declined over the years. After testing for the endogeneity of remittances and controlling for various variables, the results indicate that migrant workers' remittances do not provide strong support for economic growth and inequality. For the sample average, a 1-percent rise in the share of remittances in the economy (i.e., to GDP) will lead to a 0.10-percent rise in the economic cycle i.e. GDP growth, respectively will lead to a 0.05-percent drop in the share of people living in inequality. The findings also show that the interactive effect of remittances and foreign direct investment is lower on economic growth and inequality than the individual effect of each factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the literature on the political business cycle as a point of departure, this paper investigates whether incumbent politicians manipulate the enforcement of tax collection prior to elections, in order to win votes. Whereas previous literature has focused on macro level measurement, this paper turns the attention to the micro level, and introduces a novel measurement for the enforcement of tax regulations on an individual level. The paper investigates this question using 70 country-rounds of survey data from Sub-Saharan Africa combined with data on the timing of elections. There is no clear-cut evidence for such policy manipulations on an aggregate level, but findings indicate that this might differ depending on the incumbent's level of political support. These findings are relevant to everyone working on how to strengthen tax administrations in developing countries in order to increase public revenue and improve quality of government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By employing data from Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets for the period of 2019–2020, this paper examines the relationship between the degree of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on firms’ cash-holdings levels in China. We find that firms that are severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have higher current cash holdings levels, suggesting that the more positive (negative) the management tone in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic impact, the lower (higher) the firm’s current cash holdings. However, future corporate cash holdings decrease considerably irrespective of the corporate sentiment towards COVID-19. The positive sentiment of each firm’s management team towards the supply chain and the government policies results in a relative reduction of current cash holdings, whereas the severe impact on operating performance, especially the impact of the outbreak on the supply chain, demand, production and operations, and government policies, reduces the firm’ s future cash holdings. In addition, the impact of the pandemic has increased the current cash holdings of state-owned enterprises and reduced the future cash holdings of non-state-owned enterprises. Meanwhile, companies located in a city with a higher density of population or companies that experience relatively higher competition in the industry tend to undergo a severer impact on their current and future cash holdings due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, this study sheds the light on stimulating the vitality of enterprise investment and promoting the domestic economic cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Business entities conduct operations and implement the strategy in a turbulent business environment. The modern business environment is characterized by rapid change and unpredictability of trends caused by both systemic factors (development of the digital economy) and non-systemic shocks (COVID-19 pandemic, sharp fluctuations in commodity prices, Russian armed aggression in Ukraine). That causes threats to companies` financial security of companies. This paper aims to highlight the features of supporting financial security at the micro-level in the context of the digital economy's development and to formulate proposals for ensuring companies` financial security, taking into account the challenges of the exogenous and endogenous environment. The paper presents issues of the digital economy's development, its impact on macro-and microlevel economic processes, and cause-and-effect relationships with the state of companies` financial security. The influence mechanism of high-tech companies` development in the context of financial security at the micro and macro levels is revealed with a special focus on the area of changes in capital expenditures and economic cycle phases. Emphasis is placed on the importance of using contemporary tools to analyze the essence and consequences of the phenomena inherent in the digital economy in the context of ensuring companies` financial security. As a result of the analysis, a model for managing a company's financial security under digital economy conditions is developed. The proposed model covers both micro- and macro-blocks of ensuring financial security. The importance of a combination of qualitative and qualitative methods for assessing a company's financial security under conditions of the digital economy is emphasized. Within the framework of the model, a process approach to ensuring financial security at the company level is highlighted. The results of the paper may be used by state and local authorities to develop the principles of financial security management at the micro level under digital economy conditions, as well as by representatives of the scientific community to study the issues of companies` financial security under conditions of the digital society development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of the convergence among the European countries, including both Eurozone as well as non-Eurozone economies, is investigated in this paper. To do so, we construct correlation-based networks and study them by employing the Threshold Weighted-Minimum Dominating Set (TW–MDS) algorithm and analyzing standard quantitative performance graph theory metrics. Each country is represented by a network node, while the edges represent the cross-correlations calculated for a specific macroeconomic variable, for a given time window. To study the intertemporal evolution of the network's interconnections, we examine its structure in three consecutive time intervals: 1999–2004, 2005–2010 and 2011–2019. The empirical findings provide a mixed pattern. The European countries exhibit a common behavior over time for some macroeconomic variables, but not for all of them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Springer Nature became a formidable market leader in academic publishing after a 2015 merger. In 2018, Springer Nature made an initial public offering (IPO) attempt to reduce company debt and fortify company value. Three media sources (Reuters, Bloomberg and Nasdaq) indicated that there was a second IPO attempt in 2020, but neither of those IPO attempts reached fruition. This paper summarizes the main events surrounding those IPOs and offers some possible discussion points about them, including economic and market fluctuations. This case also highlights the highly competitive nature of the commercial publishing landscape in a non‐profit academic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the global semiconductor industry has entered a new round of rapid growth, it has also entered a golden cycle of economic growth. Semiconductor companies increase their intrinsic value through financing, industry mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital searches. At the same time, market investors pay more attention to the intrinsic value of companies when looking for good investment targets. Therefore, the systematic risk assessment of the global semiconductor market has become a common concern of market investors and corporate management. In this context, this paper found a method that can assess the systemic risk of the semiconductor global market, which is to use the K-means algorithm based on deep feature fusion. This paper analyzed the algorithm in depth, analyzed the quantum space of tensors, and used the definition of cluster fusion to obtain the relationship between the projection matrices U and V. Experiments were carried out on the improved algorithm, and market research was conducted on a multinational semiconductor company A, which mainly included the basic statistics of the rate of return and the ACF and PACF coefficients of the rate of return series. Finally, the stock risk comparison of company A and company B in the same period was carried out. The experimental results showed that comparing the three items of compound growth rate, coefficient of variation, and active rate coefficient, the highest compound growth rate was 0.41, which came from Category 2, the highest variation coefficient was 2.31, which came from Category 10, and the highest active rate coefficient was 1.78, which came from Category 9. The experimental content was completed well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper adopts the method of the random matrix to conduct an in-depth study and analysis of the management of macroeconomic multivariate statistics and regionalization, and to design its management strategy based on a random matrix. A combination of theoretical and applied research, combined with the experience of other cities, is used to study regional economic management using literature analysis, comparative analysis, and deductive induction by summarizing the results achieved in community management, studying its experience, exploring the significance of community management in ETDZs for social development, analyzing the current obstacles and contradictions affecting community management in Suqian ETDZ, and proposing relevant countermeasures for the problems arising therein to enrich the relevant theories and thus promote the level of community management in ETDZs to a higher level. Macroeconomic uncertainty refers to the changes that cannot be accurately observed, analyzed, and foreseen, i.e., the deviation of the expected value of the economy from the actual value. Not all macroeconomic fluctuations belong to the category of macroeconomic uncertainty, only unpredictable economic fluctuations are uncertain. It can be seen from the above that there is a corresponding relationship between the financial income correlation matrix and the random correlation matrix, and both are affected by the same random factors. The importance of uncertainty for macroeconomic policy making is undeniable, and its quantification is a key step. In this paper, we propose an econometric model to eliminate expectations and compare the advantages and disadvantages of different measurement models; we measure a system of fourteen macroeconomic indicators to reflect macroeconomic uncertainty and provide quantitative measurement results for the correct understanding of macroeconomic uncertainty and economic policy making. Factor analysis is used to analyze these six comprehensive aspects to obtain the six-dimensional comprehensive scores of each province and city, and the scores are normalized and visualized. Based on a certain understanding of the economic equilibrium structure of each province and city in China, and a certain control of the overall development of each region itself at this stage, the future economic development trend is studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how the internal–external composition of government debt affects the government's borrowing policy, sovereign risk, and welfare in a small open economy. To this end, I develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous default risk that includes both external and domestic debt. I calibrate the model to Argentina, and I show that the model closely reproduces key empirical moments. Moreover, I highlight the existence of an externality that distorts debt composition: Domestic debt levels are inefficiently low and default risk is inefficiently high. The welfare loss associated with the externality is roughly 0.7% when it is measured in permanent units of consumption. A Pigouvian subsidy that incentivizes domestic purchases of government bonds restores efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: Excessive credit expansions have an important role in the generation and amplification of business cycles in emerging market (EM) economies. Macroprudential policies can be beneficial in restraining excessive credit growth and safeguarding financial stability. Despite recent theoretical advances in understanding of the benefits of macroprudential policies, empirical evidence on their effect on the credit cycle is still scarce. Purpose of the article: This paper studies the effectiveness of macroprudential measures in the sample of major EM economies focusing on the broad credit measure and using an empirical framework which aims to alleviate several concerns in the previous literature. We examine the effectiveness of four categories of measures which are granular enough to provide relevant policy perspectives, whilst mitigating data sparsity issues. By exploiting both time-series and crosscountry variation in the tightness of macroprudential regulation in the construction of policy variables we also mitigate some of the common reverse causality concerns. Methods: We use panel data and employ several (fixed effect, bias corrected LSDV and dynamic interactive fixed effect) estimators to ensure that the results are not sensitive with respect to the estimation method while, together with our construction of the policy variables, alleviating other endogeneity concerns. Findings & value added: We uncover the heterogeneity in the effects of macroprudential measures on the credit cycle. While measures related to bank capital and credit activity are found to be effective in leaning-against the credit cycle, the measures targeting bank liquidity and FX exposures fail to have statistically significant effect. Our results provide the rationale for mixed evidence in the empirical literature studying the effectiveness of the broadly defined macroprudential measures. From the policy perspective, our findings provide evidence that the measures which address excessive credit expansion and strengthen the resilience of the financial system are effective in the EM economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The short- and long-term volatility of oil and gas prices has a wide-ranging impact on both parties of petroleum contractual agreements, thus affecting the profitability of the project at any stage. Therefore, the government (first party) and the international oil company (second party) set the parameters of their contracts in a way that reduces the uncertainty. The effect of price fluctuations on economic indicators is investigated in this paper. The Taguchi method is used for the first time to find the best-agreement parameters, which are the "A" and "B" factors, in the standard Libyan agreement. There are four "A" components from "A1" to "A4", and four "B" components from "B1" to "B4". The purpose is to reduce the variability in the response variables, which are the company take (the percent of net cash flow for the international company) and average value of the second-party percent share of production (ASPS). The noise factors considered in this paper are oil, liquefied hydrocarbon byproduct (LHP), and gas prices. The method was applied to a case study of oil field development in Libya. The results showed that "A3" and "A4" were the most important control factors that affect the ASPS, while "B2" and "B3" are the most important factors affecting the company take. To obtain robust results, the most important factors to reduce variability were also determined. The effect of control parameters on the average NPV may be worth more than USD 22 MM in the 1-billion-barrel oilfield case study. The results showed that, for a given combination of "A" and "B" factors with a certain company take, the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the NPV of the second party was reduced by 18% if the optimal combinations of the levels were used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]