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This paper presents an innovative approach to addressing critical global challenges in long-term energy planning for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The paper proposes and tests an international enabling environment, a delivery ecosystem, and a community of practice. These components are integrated into workflows that yield four self-sustaining capacity-development outcomes. Planning long-term energy strategies in LMICs is particularly challenging due to limited national agency and poor international coordination. While outsourcing energy planning to foreign experts may appear to be a viable solution, it can lead to a reduction in government agency (the ability of a government to make its own informed analysis and decisions). Additionally, studies commissioned by external experts may have conflicting terms of reference, and a lack of familiarity with local conditions can result in misrepresentations of on-the-ground realities. It is argued here that enhancing national agency and analytical capacity can improve coordination and lead to more robust planning across line ministries and technical assistance (TA) providers. Moreover, the prevailing consulting model hampers the release and accessibility of underlying analytics, making it difficult to retrieve, reuse, and reconstruct consultant outputs. The absence of interoperability among outputs from various consultants hinders the ability to combine and audit the insights they provide. To overcome these challenges, five strategic principles for energy planning in LMICs have been introduced and developed in collaboration with 21 international and research organizations, including the AfDB, IEA, IRENA, IAEA, UNDP, UNECA, the World Bank, and WRI. These principles prioritize national ownership, coherence and inclusivity, capacity, robustness, transparency and accessibility. In this enabling environment, a unique delivery ecosystem consisting of knowledge products and activities is established. The paper focuses on two key knowledge products as examples of this ecosystem: the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS) and the power system flexibility tool (IRENA FlexTool). These ecosystem elements are designed to meet user-friendliness, retrievability, reusability, reconstructability, repeatability, interoperability, and audibility (U4RIA) goals. To ensure the sustainability of this ecosystem, OpTIMUS is introduced—a community of practice dedicated to maintaining, supporting, expanding, and nurturing the elements within the ecosystem. Among other ecosystem elements, training and research initiatives are introduced, namely the Energy Modelling Platform for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia-Pacific as well as the ICTP Joint Summer School on Modelling Tools for Sustainable Development. Once deployed via workflows, the preliminary outcomes of these capacity-development learning pathways show promise. Further investigation is necessary to evaluate their long-term impacts, scalability, replication, and deployment costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall in the Moist Tropical Caribbean Region (MTCR) in Costa Rica occurs practically throughout the year, with the quarters June–August (JJA) and December–February (DJF) concentrating over 70% of annual rainfall. Contrarily, in March–April and September–October, it rains below 100 mm per month. This seasonal rainfall behavior makes the region ideal for producing bananas (Musa spp.) and pineapple (Ananas comosus) for export (10% and 8% of total exports in 2021, respectively). A national-scale study determined that agriculture in the MTCR is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate changes. However, the climate in this region has been poorly studied so far. This research analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of annual, monthly, and seasonal (DJF, JJA, SO) rainfall in the MTCR and how they change in the study period based on quality-checked series of daily rainfall from 28 weather stations in two periods: 1985–2009 and 1997–2019. The results show that rainfall regimes in the region are variable in space and throughout the year, with peaks occurring close to the mountain range and minimum values close to the coast. Trends were statistically significant in the period 1985–2009 with a predominance of significant positive trends in DJF and significant negative trends in SO. No significant trends (positive or negative) were observed in the period 1997–2019. JJA rainfall has uneven regional distribution and presents a positive and significant trend in the mountain region. This paper contributes to filling the knowledge gap in rainfall seasonality, variability, and trends in a region where banana and pineapple commercial plantations are fundamental to the country's economy thus providing information to decision-making in the agri-food sector to reduce the negative impacts of changing rainfall regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources management in Latin America and the Caribbean is particularly threatened by climatic, economic, and political pressures. To assess the region's ability to manage water resources, we conducted an unprecedented literature review of over 20 000 multilingual research articles using machine learning and an understanding of the socio-hydrologic landscape. Results reveal that the region's vulnerability to water-related stresses, and drivers such as climate change, is compounded by research blind spots in niche topics (reservoirs and risk assessment) and subregions (Caribbean nations), as well as by its reliance on an individual country (Brazil). A regional bright spot, Brazil, produces well-rounded water-related research, but its regional dominance suggests that funding cuts there would impede scientifically informed water management in the entire region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Tecnología y Ciencias del Agua is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Tecnologia del Agua (IMTA) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The efficient management of water resources and services continues to be aconcern in many of the small island states of the Caribbean. There are growing concernsover the ability of governments in the region to ensure the good management and provisionof water without jeopardizing economic growth and the maintenance of social well-being.This paper provides an overview of the major factors influencing the water security facingthe Caribbean Region and how the emerging concerns are being addressed. The keychallenges and vulnerabilities may be summarized as lack of data and barriers to makingavailable what information there is. Forward planning has been largely neglected and issymptomatic of a lack of appreciation of the need for having national water policies. In thisrespect Jamaica's development of a national master water plan serves as a good example ofwhat is needed. Water service providers have to be efficient, well managed and allowed todo their job. This means that they have to be on a sound financial footing. The challenge isto find the balance between appropriate political and regulatory oversight and theautonomy of water managers and service providers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a dearth of studies characterizing historical sea level variability at the local scale for the islands in the Caribbean. This is due to the lack of reliable long term tide gauge data. There is, however, a significant need for such studies given that small islands are under increasing threat from rising sea levels, storm surges, and coastal flooding due to global warming. The growing length of satellite altimetry records provides a useful alternative to undertake sea level analyses. Altimetry data, spanning 1993–2019, are used herein to explore multi-timescale sea level variability near the south coast of Jamaica, in the northwest Caribbean. Caribbean basin dynamics and largescale forcing mechanisms, which could account for the variability, are also investigated. The results show that the average annual amplitude off the south coast of Jamaica is approximately 10 cm with a seasonal peak during the summer (July–August). The highest annual sea levels occur within the Caribbean storm season, adding to the annual risk. The annual trend over the 27 years is 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr when adjusted for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), instrumental drift, and accounting for uncertainties. This is comparable to mean global sea level rise, but almost twice the prior estimates for the Caribbean which used altimetry data up to 2010. This suggests an accelerated rate of rise in the Caribbean over the last decade. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and correlation analyses show the long-term trend to be a basin-wide characteristic and linked to warming Caribbean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the period. When the altimetry data are detrended and deseasoned, the leading EOF mode has maximum loadings over the northwest Caribbean, including Jamaica, and exhibits interannual variability which correlates significantly with a tropical Pacific-tropical Atlantic SST gradient index, local wind strength, and the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ). Correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in summer, seen in this and other studies, likely arise through the contribution of the ENSO to the SST gradient index and the ENSO's modulation of the CLLJ peak strength in July. The results demonstrate the usefulness of altimetry data for characterizing sea level risk on various timescales for small islands. They also suggest the potential for developing predictive models geared towards reducing those risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Collectivus. Revista de Ciencias Sociales is the property of Universidad del Atlantico and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Through an empirical investigation of the historical relationship between the destination climate and tourist arrivals in the Caribbean, this study presents the first revealed preference evaluation of a climate index informed by tourists' stated climatic preferences for coastal-beach tourism (i.e., a sun-sand-surf or 3S travel market). The goal of this multi-organization collaboration was to examine the potential application of a newly designed climate index—the Holiday Climate Index (HCI):Beach—for three Caribbean destinations (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia). This paper provides an overview of the evolution of climate indices, including the development of the (HCI):Beach. To test the validity of climate indices for a beach travel market, daily climate ratings based on outputs from the Tourism Climate Index and the HCI were correlated with monthly arrivals data from Canada (a key source market) at an island destination scale. The results underscore the strength of the new index, with each destination scoring consistently higher using the HCI:Beach, including a stronger relationship (R2) between index scores and tourist arrivals. These findings demonstrate the value of combining stated and revealed preference methodologies to predict tourism demand and highlight opportunities for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small island developing states (SIDS), such as Barbados, must continually adapt in the face of uncertain external drivers. These include demand for exports, tourism demand, and extreme weather events. Climate change introduces further uncertainty into the external drivers. To address the challenge, we present a policy-oriented simulation model that builds upon prior work by the authors and their collaborators. Intended for policy analysis, it follows a robust decision making (RDM) philosophy of identifying policies that lead to positive outcomes across a wide range of external changes. While the model can benefit from further development, it illustrates the importance for SIDS of incorporating climate change into national planning. Even without climate change, normal variation in export and tourism demand drive divergent trajectories for the economy and external debt. With climate change, increasing storm damage adds to external debt as the loss of productive capital and need to rebuild drives imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change includes the change of the long-term average values and the change of the tails of probability density functions, where the extreme events are located. However, obtaining average values are more straightforward than the high temporal resolution information necessary to catch the extreme events on those tails. Such information is difficult to get in areas lacking sufficient rain stations. Thanks to the development of Satellite Precipitation Estimates with a daily resolution, this problem has been overcome, so Extreme Precipitation Indices (EPI) can be calculated for the entire Colombian territory. However, Colombia is strongly affected by the ENSO (El Niño—Southern Oscillation) phenomenon. Therefore, it is pertinent to ask if the EPI's long-term change due to climate change is more critical than the anomalies due to climate variability induced by the warm and cold phases of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña, respectively). In this work, we built EPI annual time series at each grid-point of the selected Satellite Precipitation Estimate (CHIRPSv2) over Colombia to answer the previous question. Then, the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test was used to compare the samples drawn in each case (i.e., change tests due to both long-term and climatic variability). After performing the analyses, we realized that the importance of the change depends on the region analyzed and the considered EPI. However, some general conclusions became evident: during El Niño years (La Niña), EPI's anomaly follows the general trend of reduction -drier conditions- (increase; -wetter conditions-) observed in Colombian annual precipitation amount, but only on the Pacific, the Caribbean, and the Andean region. In the Eastern plains of Colombia (Orinoquía and Amazonian region), EPI show a certain insensitivity to change due to climatic variability. On the other hand, EPI's long-term changes in the Pacific, the Caribbean, and the Andean region are spatially scattered. Still, long-term changes in the eastern plains have a moderate spatial consistency with statistical significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People with visual impairments (PwVI) represent a heterogeneous social group who often experience significant disabling barriers in exercising their rights throughout their life course. Understanding dimensions of vulnerability of PwVI to disasters and climate change is an important issue to reduce the culture of neglected disasters. To date, few studies have analyzed visual impairment and disaster risk reduction (DRR) in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. This exploratory qualitative research project analyzed how to include PwVI in the DRR policies of Brazil. The research question is: how can we include PwVI in the discussion of DRR and climate change? The response to this question is part of a joint effort that involved a university, a hazard monitoring agency, and three institutions that work with PwVI. The three main results of the project are: (1) a mapping method to identify the exposure of PwVI to landslides and floods, and to create tactile risk maps tailored to them; (2) incorporating the voices of PwVI regarding their vulnerabilities and capacities with respect to disasters and climate change, achieved through shared interaction during 15 face to face interviews and one workshop attended by 100 people; and (3) an initiative of inclusive education to reduce some of the disabling barriers that intensify vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Caribbean economies, lifestyles, activities, practices and operational cycles are intricately linked to climate, making them vulnerable to its variations and/or changes. As examples, climate extremes impact agriculture, fisheries, health, tourism, water availability, recreation, and energy usage, among other things. There is however limited incorporation of climate information in the long term developmental plans and policies of the region. This is in part due to a knowledge deficit about climate change, it's likely manifestation in the region and the possible impact on Caribbean societies. In this paper, a review of the growing bank of knowledge about Caribbean climate science; variability and change is undertaken. Insight is offered into the basic science of climate change, past trends and future projections for Caribbean climate, and the possible implications for the region. In the end a case is made for a greater response to the threats posed by climate change on the basis of the sufficiency of our current knowledge of Caribbean climate science. A general profile of what the response may look like is also offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural trends in the insular Caribbean are increasingly shaped by global change. Global change is characterized by two components, globalization and environmental change. Specifically, we can identify stresses and shocks associated both by economic trade liberalization, and the impacts of environmental hazards. In the latter case, an apparent increase in extreme weather conditions (notably unpredictable periods of prolonged drought and of intense rainfall) are possible harbingers of climate change. These forces have impacted both export agriculture and domestic food production throughout the region. In this paper, we document the performance of the agricultural sector in the context of these external forces. One focus of attention is the ability of small-scale farming systems to cope with, and adapt to, external change, drawing on their traditional knowledge. Opportunities for Caribbean agriculture are also evident through overseas niche markets and alternative trading networks like fair trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mass die‐off of Caribbean corals has transformed many of this region's reefs to macroalgal‐dominated habitats since systematic monitoring began in the 1970s. Although attributed to a combination of local and global human stressors, the lack of long‐term data on Caribbean reef coral communities has prevented a clear understanding of the causes and consequences of coral declines. We integrated paleoecological, historical, and modern survey data to track the occurrence of major coral species and life‐history groups throughout the Caribbean from the prehuman period to the present. The regional loss of Acropora corals beginning by the 1960s from local human disturbances resulted in increases in the occurrence of formerly subdominant stress‐tolerant and weedy scleractinian corals and the competitive hydrozoan Millepora beginning in the 1970s and 1980s. These transformations have resulted in the homogenization of coral communities within individual countries. However, increases in stress‐tolerant and weedy corals have slowed or reversed since the 1980s and 1990s in tandem with intensified coral bleaching and disease. These patterns reveal the long history of increasingly stressful environmental conditions on Caribbean reefs that began with widespread local human disturbances and have recently culminated in the combined effects of local and global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The proposition of transition cycles for a low-carbon economy based on human development and climate action. • A climate justice index in line with the United Nations' concepts of sustainable development. • A climate justice index that benchmarks nations with the same level of economic development. • The proposed index can help policy-makers and national government to identify synergy between climate actions and human development policies. Since the climate change context is increasingly the focus of decision-makers, indices capable of helping them in the transition to a low-carbon economy are considered necessary. Therefore, the objective of this work is to propose an index of climate justice that includes factors of human development and climate action. The index was developed using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique and, in this study, assessed the climate justice of 198 nations. After the calculation, statistical analysis was used to compare the climate justice of the aforementioned countries, grouped by level of development and geographical location. The results obtained were: a) there is currently no nation that fully guarantees climate justice to its population; b) there is a difference in the performance of climate justice between the Annex I, Non-Annex I and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) groups; c) nations located in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and Eastern Europe are similar in terms of climate justice index performance. The main contribution of this paper is in the fact that the proposed index can help policy-makers and national governments to define climate and development policies, creating a synergy between such policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning. Substantial investment will be required in renewables to implement climate change mitigation. Here, the authors focus on Latin America and the Caribbean and find that climate impacts on renewables would result in additional investments $12-114 billion by 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models consistently project a significant drying in the Caribbean during climate change, and between 2013 and 2016 the region experienced the worst multiyear drought in the historical period. Although dynamical mechanisms have been proposed to explain drought in the Caribbean, the contributions from mass convergence and advection to precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) anomalies during drought are unknown. Here we analyze the dynamics of contemporaneous droughts in the Caribbean by decomposing the contributions of mass convergence and advection to P − E using observational and simulated data. We find that droughts arise from an anomalous subsidence over the southeastern Caribbean and northeastern South America. Although the contributions from mass convergence and advection vary across the region, it is mass convergence that is the main driver of drought in our study area. A similar dynamical pattern is observed in simulated droughts using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LENS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts island communities all over the world. Sea-level rise, an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and changes in distribution and health of marine organisms are among the most significant processes affecting island communities worldwide. On islands of the Caribbean and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO), however, today's climate change impacts are magnified by historical environmental injustice and colonial legacies, which have heightened the vulnerability of human and other biotic communities. For some islands, archaeological and paleoecological research offers an important record of precolonial climate change and its interplay with human lives and landscapes. The archaeological record suggests strategies and mechanisms that can inform discussions of resilience in the face of climate change. We detail climate-related challenges facing island Caribbean and SWIO communities using archaeological and paleoecological evidence for past climate change and human response and argue that these cannot be successfully addressed without an understanding of the processes that have, over time, disrupted livelihoods, reshaped land- and seascapes, threatened intergenerational ecological knowledge transfer, and led to increased inequality and climate vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early September 2017, Irma was the most powerful hurricane that struck the northern Caribbean over the last 100 years. In the 21st century, the stronger types of tropical cyclones will likely increase in frequency due to the climate change and internal climate variability. Lessons to anticipate the response of mangroves to this intensification can be learned from this extreme event. Here, we analysed damages caused in mangrove forests of the Saint Martin Island. Mangroves of this island were previously degraded due to historic human pressures and recent over-urbanisation. Forest inventories and time series of very high resolution satellite images revealed that approximately 80% of the mangrove area was damaged by the hurricane. Results highlighted distinct rates of forest recovery. Early and rapid recoveries were largely observed in most study sites. However, some mangroves were still unable to recover fourteen months after the disturbance. The human-induced degradation of the ecosystem prior to the hurricane is hypothesised to be the main factor controlling the absence of forest recovery. We suggest that human-degraded mangroves will be weakened in the face of such extreme events. We advocate to preserve and restore mangroves in order to guarantee all the valuable ecosystem services they provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has significantly altered species distributions in the wild and has the potential to affect the interactions between pests and diseases and their human, animal and plant hosts. While several studies have projected changes in disease distributions in the future, responses to historical climate change are poorly understood. Such analyses are required to dissect the relative contributions of climate change, host availability and dispersal to the emergence of pests and diseases. Here, we model the influence of climate change on the most damaging disease of a major tropical food plant, Black Sigatoka disease of banana. Black Sigatoka emerged from Asia in the late twentieth Century and has recently completed its invasion of Latin American and Caribbean banana-growing areas. We parametrize an infection model with published experimental data and drive the model with hourly microclimate data from a global climate reanalysis dataset. We define infection risk as the sum of the number of modelled hourly spore cohorts that infect a leaf over a time interval. The model shows that infection risk has increased by a median of 44.2% across banana-growing areas of Latin America and the Caribbean since the 1960s, due to increasing canopy wetness and improving temperature conditions for the pathogen. Thus, while increasing banana production and global trade have probably facilitated Black Sigatoka establishment and spread, climate change has made the region increasingly conducive for plant infection. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Production efficiency is a key determinant of economic growth and demonstrates how a country uses its resources by relating the quantity of its inputs to its outputs. When a natural hazard-induced disaster strikes, it has a devastating impact on capital and labor, but at the same time provides an opportunity to upgrade capital and increase labor demand and training opportunities, thereby potentially boosting production efficiency. We studied the impact of natural hazard-induced disasters on countries' production efficiency, using the case study of hurricanes in the Caribbean. To this end we built a country-specific, time-varying data set of hurricane damage and national output and input indicators for 17 Caribbean countries for the period 1940–2014. Our results, using a stochastic frontier approach, show that there is a short-lived production efficiency boost, and that this can be large for very damaging storms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gecarcinid land crabs are ecosystem engineers playing an important role in nutrient recycling and seedling propagation in coastal forests. Given a predicted future decline in precipitation for the Caribbean, the effects of dehydration on feeding preferences of the black land crab Gecarcinus ruricola were investigated. G. ruricola were offered novel food items of lettuce, apple, or herring to test for food choice based on water and nutritional (energetic) content in single and multiple choice experimental designs. The effect of dehydration was incorporated by depriving crabs of water for 0, 4, or 8 days, leading to an average body water loss of 0%, 9%, and 17%, respectively, (crabs survived a body water loss of 23% + 2% and 14–16 days without access to water). The results were consistent between the single and multiple choice experiments: crabs consumed relatively more apple and fish and only small amounts of lettuce. Overall, no selective preferences were observed as a function of dehydration, but crabs did consume less dry food when deprived of water and an overall lower food intake with increasing dehydration levels occurred. The decrease in feeding was likely due to loss of water from the gut resulting in the inability to produce ample digestive juices. Future climatic predictions suggest a 25–50% decline in rainfall in the Caribbean, which may lead to a lower food intake by the crabs, resulting in compromised growth. The subsequent reduction in nutrient recycling highlights possible long-term effects on coastal ecosystems and highlights the importance of future work on climate relative behavioral interactions that influence ecosystem function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sustainability of small island developing states (SIDS) of the Caribbean is fragile because of island size and topography, limited resources, population growth, natural disasters, and climate change. Current and projected sustainability in 2050 were assessed within the framework of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus for 10 of 16 SIDS with the best databases. Values for each WEF sector below either Falkenmark indicators or regional averages were considered unsustainable (failing) for that sector. Overall, SIDS were considered unsustainable if they failed at least two of three sectors. Projected water sustainability for 2050 was based on population growth and climate change effects on precipitation and per capita water availability. All SIDS failed the food sector, and four failed the energy sector. Water was considered the ultimate control for long-term sustainability. Five SIDS currently fail the water sector, but all but the largest two SIDS are likely to fail this sector by 2050. The role of poor governance and associated lack of long-term planning for population growth, disasters, and climate change, adaptative management strategies, infrastructure investment with an emphasis on nature-based solutions, decentralized energy grids emphasizing renewable energy, and local food production are clearly impediments for reaching sustainability goals for Caribbean SIDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles). We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour: pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey consumption rate, because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey. Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory, we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures, with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance. Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large, predicted reductions are, on average, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae, local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change. Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey, leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass. However, the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates) on invaded reefs. Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that, at least for the lionfish invasion, the threat is clear and present, rather than future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to briefly review the socio-economic impact caused by the flooding of Lake Enriquillo on the inhabitants of Boca Cachón due to the complex local phenomenon related to climate variability. Between 2003 and 2014, Boca de Cachón and the communities surrounding Lake Enriquillo were deeply affected by flooding of the Lake's rising waters. Lake Enriquillo is the largest wetland in the Caribbean and the first designated RAMSAR site. In turn, Boca de Cachón could be considered the first human settlement formally displaced because of climate variability in the Dominican Republic and probably one of the first in the Americas in the twenty-first century. Boca de Cachón is a rural Municipal District located to the northwest of the municipality of Jimaní, with a population of around 3000 inhabitants on the southwest border with the Republic of Haiti and located in the Biosphere Reserve Jaragua-Bahoruco-Enriquillo. Given the future climatic scenarios for the Dominican Republic and the possible climate change that could exacerbate by excess or, by default, the socio-environmental problems in the Lake's belt, it is necessary to support the communities in their capacity-building processes. The lessons learned from Boca de Cachón can serve as a learning space for adaptation processes in rural environments in the Caribbean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many Caribbean island nations have historically been heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels for both power and transportation, while at the same time being at an enhanced risk from the impacts of climate change, although their emissions represent a very tiny fraction of the global total responsible for climate change. Small island developing states (SIDSs) are among the leaders in advocating for the ambitious 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target and the transition to 100% sustainable, renewable energy systems. In this work, three central results are presented. First, through GIS mapping of all Caribbean islands, the potential for near-coastal deep-water as a resource for ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is shown, and these results are coupled with an estimate of the countries for which OTEC would be most advantageous due to a lack of other dispatchable renewable power options. Secondly, hourly data have been utilized to explicitly show the trade-offs between battery storage needs and dispatchable renewable sources such as OTEC in 100% renewable electricity systems, both in technological and economic terms. Finally, the utility of near-shore, open-cycle OTEC with accompanying desalination is shown to enable a higher penetration of renewable energy and lead to lower system levelized costs than those of a conventional fossil fuel system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Six members of the Hadley Centre's Perturbed Physics Ensemble for the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project are downscaled using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) RCM (Regional Climate Model). Climate scenarios at long-term temperature goals (LTTGs) of 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial warming levels are generated for the Caribbean and six sub-regions for annual and seasonal timescales. Under a high emissions scenario, the LTTGs are attained in the mid-2020s, end of the 2030s, and the early 2050s, respectively. At 1.5 °C, the region is slightly cooler than the globe, land areas warmer than ocean, and for the later months, the north is warmer than the south. The far western and southern Caribbean including the eastern Caribbean island chain dry at 1.5 °C (up to 50%). At 2.0 °C, the warming and drying intensify and there is a reversal of a wet tendency in parts of the north Caribbean. Drying in the rainfall season accounts for much of the annual change. There is limited further intensification of the region-wide drying at 2.5 °C. Changes in wind strength in the Caribbean low-level jet region may contribute to the patterns seen. There are implications for urgent and targeted adaptation planning in the Caribbean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]