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The article presents a study which focuses on the use of Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) data in the investigation of temperature trends in Antarctica. The seasonal temperature trends are examined at 100 hectopascals and 500 hectopascals pressure levels. Variations in the temperature at spatial and temporal domains are highlighted.

Regional climate models (RCMs) and reanalysis datasets provide valuable information for assessing the vulnerability of ice shelves to collapse over Antarctica, which is important for future global sea level rise estimates. Within this context, this paper examines variability in snowfall, near-surface air temperature and melt across products from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) and Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) RCMs, as well as the ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Seasonal and trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) is applied to split the monthly time series at each model grid cell into trend, seasonal and residual components. Significant systematic differences between outputs are shown for all variables in the mean and in the seasonal and residual standard deviations, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results imply that differences in the atmospheric dynamics, parametrisation, tuning and surface schemes between models together contribute more significantly to large-scale variability than differences in the driving data, resolution, domain specification, ice sheet mask, digital elevation model and boundary conditions. Despite significant systematic differences, high temporal correlations are found for snowfall and near-surface air temperature across all products at fine spatial scales. For melt, only moderate correlation exists at fine spatial scales between different RCMs and low correlation between RCM and reanalysis outputs. Root mean square deviations (RMSDs) between all outputs in the monthly time series for each variable are shown to be significant at fine spatial scales relative to the magnitude of annual deviations. Correcting for systematic differences results in significant reductions in RMSDs, suggesting the importance of observations and further development of bias-correction techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HydroGFD3 (Hydrological Global Forcing Data) is a data set of bias-adjusted reanalysis data for daily precipitation and minimum, mean, and maximum temperature. It is mainly intended for large-scale hydrological modelling but is also suitable for other impact modelling. The data set has an almost global land area coverage, excluding the Antarctic continent and small islands, at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 ∘ , i.e. about 25 km. It is available for the complete ERA5 reanalysis time period, currently 1979 until 5 d ago. This period will be extended back to 1950 once the back catalogue of ERA5 is available. The historical period is adjusted using global gridded observational data sets, and to acquire real-time data, a collection of several reference data sets is used. Consistency in time is attempted by relying on a background climatology and only making use of anomalies from the different data sets. Precipitation is adjusted for mean bias as well as the number of wet days in a month. The latter is relying on a calibrated statistical method with input only of the monthly precipitation anomaly such that no additional input data about the number of wet days are necessary. The daily mean temperature is adjusted toward the monthly mean of the observations and applied to 1 h time steps of the ERA5 reanalysis. Daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature are then calculated. The performance of the HydroGFD3 data set is on par with other similar products, although there are significant differences in different parts of the globe, especially where observations are uncertain. Further, HydroGFD3 tends to have higher precipitation extremes, partly due to its higher spatial resolution. In this paper, we present the methodology, evaluation results, and how to access the data set at 10.5281/zenodo.3871707. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been shown that a proxy determination of the magnetospheric open-closed magnetic field line boundary (OCB) location can be made by examining the ultra-low-frequency (ULF) wave power in magnetometer data, with particular interest in the Pc5 ULF waves with periods of 3-10 min. In this study, we present a climatology of such Pc5 ULF waves using groundbased magnetometer data from the South Pole Station (SPA), McMurdo (MCM) station, and the Automatic Geophysical Observatories (AGOs) located across the Antarctic continent, to infer OCB behavior and variability during geomagnetically quiet times (i.e., Ap < 30 nT). For each season [i.e., austral fall (20 February 2017-20 April 2017), austral winter (20 May 2017-20 July 2017), austral spring (20 August 2017-20 October 2017), and austral summer (20 November 2017-20 January 2018)], north-south (i.e., H-component) magnetic field line residual power-spectral density (PSD) measurements taken during geomagnetically quiet periods within a 60-day window centered at the austral solstice/equinox are averaged in 10-min temporal bins to form the climatology at each station. These residual PSDs thus enable the analysis of Pc5 activity (and lower period "long-band" oscillations) and, thus, OCB location/variability as a function of season and magnetic latitude. The dawn and dusk transitions across the OCB are analyzed, with a discussion of dawn and dusk variability during nominally quiet geomagnetic periods. In addition, latitudinal dependencies of the OCB and peak Pc5 periods at each station are discussed, along with the empirical Tsyganenko model comparisons to our site measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deep polar ice cores provide reference records commonly employed in global correlation of past climate events. However, temporal divergences reaching up to several thousand years (ka) exist between ice cores over the last climatic cycle. In this context, we are hereby introducing the Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012 (AICC2012), a new and coherent timescale developed for four Antarctic ice cores, namely Vostok, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) and Talos Dome (TALDICE), alongside the Greenlandic NGRIP record. The AICC2012 timescale has been constructed using the Bayesian tool Datice (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) that combines glaciological inputs and data constraints, including a wide range of relative and absolute gas and ice stratigraphic markers. We focus here on the last 120 ka, whereas the companion paper by Bazin et al. (2013) focuses on the interval 120-800 ka. Compared to previous timescales, AICC2012 presents an improved timing for the last glacial inception, respecting the glaciological constraints of all analyzed records. Moreover, with the addition of numerous new stratigraphic markers and improved calculation of the lock-in depth (LID) based on d15N data employed as the Datice background scenario, the AICC2012 presents a slightly improved timing for the bipolar sequence of events over Marine Isotope Stage 3 associated with the seesaw mechanism, with maximum differences of about 600 yr with respect to the previous Datice-derived chronology of Lemieux-Dudon et al. (2010), hereafter denoted LD2010. Our improved scenario confirms the regional differences for the millennial scale variability over the last glacial period: while the EDC isotopic record (events of triangular shape) displays peaks roughly at the same time as the NGRIP abrupt isotopic increases, the EDML isotopic record (events characterized by broader peaks or even extended periods of high isotope values) reached the isotopic maximum several centuries before. It is expected that the future contribution of both other long ice core records and other types of chronological constraints to the Datice tool will lead to further refinements in the ice core chronologies beyond the AICC2012 chronology. For the time being however, we recommend that AICC2012 be used as the preferred chronology for the Vostok, EDC, EDML and TALDICE ice core records, both over the last glacial cycle (this study), and beyond (following Bazin et al., 2013). The ages for NGRIP in AICC2012 are virtually identical to those of GICC05 for the last 60.2 ka, whereas the ages beyond are independent of those in GICC05modelext (as in the construction of AICC2012, the GICC05modelext was included only via the background scenarios and not as age markers). As such, where issues of phasing between Antarctic records included in AICC2012 and NGRIP are involved, the NGRIP ages in AICC2012 should therefore be taken to avoid introducing false offsets. However for issues involving only Greenland ice cores, there is not yet a strong basis to recommend superseding GICC05modelext as the recommended age scale for Greenland ice cores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eighteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) are compared to reference data for the present, the Mid- Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) for the Antarctic region. The climatology produced by a regional climate model is taken as a reference climate for the present. GCM results for the past are compared to ice-core data. The goal of this study is to find the best GCM that can be used to drive an ice sheet model that simulates the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Because temperature and precipitation are the most important climate variables when modelling the evolution of an ice sheet, these two variables are considered in this paper. This is done by ranking the models according to how well their output corresponds with the references. In general, present-day temperature is simulated well, but precipitation is overestimated compared to the reference data. Another finding is that model biases play an important role in simulating the past, as they are often larger than the change in temperature or precipitation between the past and the present. Considering the results for the present-day as well as for the MH and the LGM, the best performing models are HadCM3 and MIROC 3.2.2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a decade of research, New Zealand's Latitudinal Gradient Project (LGP) now includes primary sites from Cape Hallett (72°S) to the Darwin Glacier (80°S), while additional observations extend the latitudinal transect from 84°S to sub-Antarctic regions. The LGP has been structured around a hypothesis that, in a frigid continent, ice dynamics is the key ecosystem variable. For terrestrial environments, two aspects of ice dynamics appear to underlie much of the observed variability. Firstly, the aridity of the region makes the transition from ice to water a key ecological factor, and secondly, the legacy of ice dynamics dating as far back as the Pliocene is imprinted on biogeography. These factors operate at difference temporal and spatial scales and neither is monotonically related to latitude. Both are also complicated by meso-scale cross gradients of altitude and distance from the sea and micro-scale local variability. Whilst climate does vary on a broad-scale, differences within the northern and central parts of Victoria Land that the LGP has so far examined are insufficient to impose any overarching effect that can overwhelm these more local effects. The result is a multiple-scale patchwork of habitats and communities, more or less replicated across the transect, in which variability at any given latitude generally exceeds variability between latitudes. A lesser quantum of research has been directed at marine ecosystems, but here there is a similar picture of local variability dominating within the Ross Sea, with significant latitude-scale effects only emerging when transects are extended into maritime- and sub-Antarctic regions. It is implicit, but not specifically recognized in the LGP context, that a further confounding effect on the interpretation of 'transect' information is the multiple stressor concept that requires a simultaneous analysis of interacting (synergistic or antagonistic) factors and environmental responses. As the LGP continues to extend further south, climate is expected to become more extreme, and water availability may change sufficiently for loss of habitat and species diversity to occur. Here we discuss options for refining the LGP approach to optimize its potential for understanding variability, and the factors underpinning this, in the Ross Sea Sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate observations at Orcadas represent the only southern high-latitude site where data span more than a century, and its daily measurements are presented for the first time in this paper. Although limited to a single station, the observed warming trends are among the largest found anywhere on the earth, facilitating the study of changes in extreme temperatures as well as averages. Factors that may influence Antarctic climate include natural variability; changes in greenhouse gases; and, since about the mid-1970s, the development of the ozone hole. The seasonality of observed warming and its temporal evolution during the century are both key for interpretations of Antarctic climate change. No statistically significant climate trends are observed at Orcadas from 1903 to 1950. However, statistically significant warming is evident at Orcadas throughout all four seasons of the year since 1950. Particularly in austral fall and winter, the warming of the cold extremes (coldest 5% and 10% of days) substantially exceeds the warming of the mean or of the warmest days, providing a key indicator for cold season Antarctic climate change studies. Trends in the summer season means and extremes since 1970 are approximately twice as large as those observed earlier, supporting suggestions of additional regional warming in that season because of the effects of ozone depletion on the circulation. Further, in the spring and summer seasons, significant mean warming also occurred prior to the development of the Antarctic ozone hole (i.e., 1950–70), supporting an important role for processes other than ozone depletion, such as greenhouse gas increases, for the climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geological evidence shows that the ice sheet and climate in Antarctica has changed considerably since the onset of glaciation around 34 million years ago. By analysing this evidence, important information concerning processes responsible for ice sheet growth and decay can be determined, which is vital for appreciating future changes in Antarctica. Geological records are diverse and their analyses require a variety of techniques. They are, however, essential for the establishment of hypotheses regarding past Antarctic changes. Numerical models of ice and climate are useful for testing such hypotheses, and in recent years there have been several advances in our knowledge relating to ice sheet history gained from these tests. This paper documents five case studies, employing a full range of techniques, to exemplify recent insights into Antarctic climate evolution from modelling ice sheet inception in the earliest Oligocene to quantifying Neogene ice sheet fluctuations and process-led investigations of recent (last glacial) changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A nested ice flow model was developed for eastern Dronning Maud Land to assist with the dating and interpretation of the EDML deep ice core. The model consists of a high-resolution higher-order ice dynamic flow model that was nested into a comprehensive 3-D thermomechanical model of the whole Antarctic ice sheet. As the drill site is on a flank position the calculations specifically take into account the effects of horizontal advection as deeper ice in the core originated from higher inland. First the regional velocity field and ice sheet geometry is obtained from a forward experiment over the last 8 glacial cycles. The result is subsequently employed in a Lagrangian backtracing algorithm to provide particle paths back to their time and place of deposition. The procedure directly yields the depth-age distribution, surface conditions at particle origin, and a suite of relevant parameters such as initial annual layer thickness. This paper discusses the method and the main results of the experiment, including the ice core chronology, the non-climatic corrections needed to extract the climatic part of the signal, and the thinning function. The focus is on the upper 89% of the ice core (appr. 170 kyears) as the dating below that is increasingly less robust owing to the unknown value of the geothermal heat flux. It is found that the temperature biases resulting from variations of surface elevation are up to half of the magnitude of the climatic changes themselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

George VI Ice Shelf is the largest ice shelf on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Covering a total area of 25 000 km². The northern ice front of George VI Ice Shelf presently marks the southernmost occurrence of recent ice-shelf retreat on the Antarctic Peninsula and according to some predictions the ice shelf is close to its thermal limit of stability, If these predictions are accurate and we are witnessing the first stages of retreat then it is critical that we take the opportunity to examine the ice shelf in its pre-collapse phase. This paper provides a review of the geological evolution, glaciology and interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. We also discuss the present behaviour of the ice shelf, in the context of recent retreat of its northern and southern ice fronts, and outline several possible mechanisms for future ice shelf collapse. What emerges from this review is that the stability of George VI Ice Shelf is sensitive not only to the recent rapid regional atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula which has led to the gradual retreat of the northern and southern ice shelf fronts, but also to changes in ocean circulation, particularly intrusions of warm Upper Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf. It is likely that any future change in the stability of George VI Ice Shelf will involve a combined atmospheric and oceanic forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water stable isotope records from ice cores (δ18 O and δ D) are a critical tool for constraining long-term temperature variability at high latitudes. However, precipitation in Antarctica consists of semi-continuous small events and intermittent extreme events. In regions of high accumulation, this can bias ice core records towards recording the synoptic climate conditions present during extreme precipitation events. In this study we utilise a combination of ice core data, reanalysis products, and models to understand how precipitation intermittency impacts the temperature records preserved in an ice core from Mount Brown South in East Antarctica. Extreme precipitation events represent only the largest 10 % of all precipitation events, but they account for 52 % of the total annual snowfall at this site, leading to an overrepresentation of these events in the ice core record. Extreme precipitation events are associated with high-pressure systems in the mid-latitudes that cause increased transport of warm and moist air from the southern Indian Ocean to the ice core site. Warm temperatures associated with these events result in a +4.8 ∘ C warm bias in the mean annual temperature when weighted by daily precipitation, and water isotopes in the Mount Brown South ice core are shown to be significantly correlated with local temperature when this precipitation-induced temperature bias is included. The Mount Brown South water isotope record spans more than 1000 years and will provide a valuable regional reconstruction of long-term temperature and hydroclimate variability in the data-sparse southern Indian Ocean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) transport large amounts of moisture from the mid- to high-latitudes and they are a primary driver of the most extreme snowfall events, along with surface melting, in Antarctica. In this study, we characterize the climatology and surface impacts of ARs on West Antarctica, focusing on the Amundsen Sea Embayment and Marie Byrd Land. First, we develop a climatology of ARs in this region, using an Antarctic-specific AR detection tool combined with the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) atmospheric reanalyses. We find that while ARs are infrequent (occurring 3 % of the time), they cause intense precipitation in short periods of time and account for 11 % of the annual surface accumulation. They are driven by the coupling of a blocking high over the Antarctic Peninsula with a low-pressure system known as the Amundsen Sea Low. Next, we use observations from automatic weather stations on Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf with the firn model SNOWPACK and interferometric reflectometry (IR) to examine a case study of three ARs that made landfall in rapid succession from 2 to 8 February 2020, known as an AR family event. While accumulation dominates the surface impacts of the event on Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (> 100 kgm-2 or millimeters water equivalent), we find small amounts of surface melt as well (< 5 kgm-2). The results presented here enable us to quantify the past impacts of ARs on West Antarctica's surface mass balance (SMB) and characterize their interannual variability and trends, enabling a better assessment of future AR-driven changes in the SMB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric moisture is a key component in the water cycle and radiative transfer. In this study, a comprehensive picture of air moisture climatology and related physical processes is presented for the first time for the circumpolar area south of 50°S. The results are based on the most modern global reanalysis, ERA5, which manages reasonably well to close the Antarctic water budget. We show that over the ocean transient cyclones have the dominant role in determining moisture conditions, whereas over the continent the moisture conditions are largely affected by the mean circulation. Over the open sea, moisture transport from lower latitudes is an equally important source of moisture compared to the local evaporation, but practically all precipitating moisture over the plateau is provided by the horizontal transport. Over the ocean and continental slopes, southward moisture transport brings warm and moist air masses from lower latitudes, notably increasing atmospheric water vapor and cloud water, and simultaneously decreasing local evaporation over the open sea. On the Antarctic plateau, radiative cooling leads to high relative humidity and causes condensation of moisture especially near the surface, causing a nearly permanent specific humidity inversion layer. As a consequence, dry air masses with extremely low specific humidity are formed. These dry air masses are transported downward from the plateau by katabatic winds, experiencing adiabatic warming. This leads to a decrease in relative humidity and to a downward-directed sensible heat flux, which enable efficient surface evaporation on the coastal slopes and farther over coastal polynyas and leads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Slope Front (ASF) is a fundamental feature of the subpolar Southern Ocean that is still poorly observed. In this study we build a statistical climatology of the temperature and salinity fields of the upper 380m of the Antarctic margin. We use a comprehensive compilation of observational datasets including the profiles gathered by instrumented marine mammals. The mapping method consists first of a decomposition in vertical modes of the combined temperature and salinity profiles. Then the resulting principal components are optimally interpolated on a regular grid and the monthly climatological profiles are reconstructed, providing a physically plausible representation of the ocean. The ASF is located with a contour method and a gradient method applied on the temperature field, two complementary approaches that provide a complete view of the ASF structure. The front extends from the Amundsen Sea to the eastern Weddell Sea and closely tracks the continental shelf break. It is associated with a sharp temperature gradient that is stronger in winter and weaker in summer. The emergence of the front in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen sectors appears to be seasonally variable (slightly more westward in winter than in summer). Investigation of the density gradients across the shelf break indicates a winter slowdown of the baroclinic component of the Antarctic Slope Current at the near surface, in contrast with the seasonal variability of the temperature gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present-day Arctic and Antarctic climate of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) is presented. The CCM3 simulation is from a prescribed and interannually varying sea surface temperature integration from January 1979 through August 1993. Observations from a variety of sources, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses, rawinsonde, and surface station data, are used for validation of CCM3's polar climate during this period. Overall, CCM3 can simulate many important polar climatic features and in general is an incremental improvement over CCM2. The 500-hPa polar vortex minima are too deep by 50--100 m and too zonally symmetric. The Arctic sea level pressure maximum is displaced poleward, while the Icelandic region minimum is extended toward Europe, and the Aleutian region minimum is extended toward Asia. The Antarctic circumpolar trough of low sea level pressure is slightly north of the observed position and is 2--3 hPa too low. Antarctic katabatic winds are similar to observations in magnitude and regional variation. The Antarctic surface wind stress is estimated to be 30%--50% too strong in some regions. Polar tropospheric temperatures are 2&deg--4&degC colder than observations, mostly in the summer season. Low-level winter inversions over the Arctic Ocean are only 3&deg--4&degC, rather than the observed 10&degC. In the Antarctic midcontinent they are around 25&deg--30&degC (about 5&deg stronger than observed) and continue to be stronger than observed along the coast. Although water vapor column is uniformly low by 10%--20% compared to analyses in both polar regions, the regional patterns of minima over Greenland and the East Antarctic plateau are well represented. Annual 70&deg to pole CCM3 values are 5.8 kg m[sup-2] for the Arctic and 1.7 kg m[sup-2] for the Antarctic. The regional distribution of precipitation minus evaporation compares reasonably with analyses. (...). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A suite of chemistry‐climate model simulations, forced by pairs of anthropogenic forcings [comprising greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone depleting substances (ODSs), or aerosols], were employed to investigate whether the high‐latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation response to these forcings is linearly additive, a common assumption in attribution studies. We find that the geographical pattern of sea‐level pressure (SLP) response to a combination of GHGs and ODSs is linearly additive. However, we find significant differences in the SLP response when combining GHGs and aerosols compared to the sum of the individual forcings, a non‐additivity that is currently masked by the dominance of the ODSs forcing. This non‐linearity also results in changes to the SH split jet. These results were obtained using a coupled chemistry‐climate model, indicating that the non‐linear response is due to chemical interactions between the forcing agents. As such, future simulations investigating a post‐ozone hole Southern Hemisphere climate should consider this chemical interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Polar Radiant Energy in the Far Infrared Experiment (PREFIRE) mission will, for the first time, systematically document the far-infrared (15–54 µm) spectral region from space. The environmental sampling characteristics of the PREFIRE CubeSats, defined in terms of surface temperature (Tsfc) and column water vapor (CWV) are evaluated for a range of possible orbit scenarios for both clear-sky and all-sky conditions over a variety of surface types (land, ocean, sea ice, snow, glacier ice) at both poles. Using NASA Aqua's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) retrievals to define the climatological ranges of Tsfc and CWV, the fraction of environmental regimes observed by distinct PREFIRE configurations are evaluated. The sampling rates within any single year for two-orbit CubeSat launches spanning both polar regions are ~75% for clear-sky and ~85% for all-sky compared to the AIRS/AMSU climatology. Decreasing mission duration from 12 to 3 months decreases sampling much more (10%–20%) than decreasing the swath width from 15 to 8 footprints (6%–9%). For a single CubeSat launch, a 98° orbital inclination provides slightly better sampling than either 93° or 103°. For a two-orbit CubeSat launch, a combination of 93° + 98° is somewhat preferable to 103° + 98°. Finally, a 50% data loss rate simulated by dropping out every other orbit leads to only a modest 7%–8% reduction in sampling from full data coverage. This statistical analysis demonstrates that low-cost platforms could offer similar coverage as present-day flagship missions for sampling wide-ranging Tsfc and CWV states over polar regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents airborne in situ and satellite remote sensing climatologies of cirrus clouds and humidity. The climatologies serve as a guide to the properties of cirrus clouds, with the new in situ database providing detailed insights into boreal midlatitudes and the tropics, while the satellite-borne data set offers a global overview. To this end, an extensive, quality-checked data archive, the Cirrus Guide II in situ database, is created from airborne in situ measurements during 150 flights in 24 campaigns. The archive contains meteorological parameters, ice water content (IWC), ice crystal number concentration (Nice), ice crystal mean mass radius (Rice), relative humidity with respect to ice (RH ice), and water vapor mixing ratio (H2O) for each of the flights. Depending on the parameter, the database has been extended by about a factor of 5–10 compared to earlier studies. As one result of our investigation, we show that the medians of Nice , Rice , and RH ice have distinct patterns in the IWC– T parameter space. Lookup tables of these variables as functions of IWC and T can be used to improve global model cirrus representation and remote sensing retrieval methods. Another outcome of our investigation is that across all latitudes, the thicker liquid-origin cirrus predominate at lower altitudes, while at higher altitudes the thinner in situ-origin cirrus prevail. Further, examination of the radiative characteristics of in situ-origin and liquid-origin cirrus shows that the in situ-origin cirrus only slightly warm the atmosphere, while liquid-origin cirrus have a strong cooling effect. An important step in completing the Cirrus Guide II is the provision of the global cirrus Nice climatology, derived by means of the retrieval algorithm DARDAR-Nice from 10 years of cirrus remote sensing observations from satellite. The in situ measurement database has been used to evaluate and improve the satellite observations. We found that the global median Nice from satellite observations is almost 2 times higher than the in situ median and increases slightly with decreasing temperature. Nice medians of the most frequently occurring cirrus sorted by geographical regions are highest in the tropics, followed by austral and boreal midlatitudes, Antarctica, and the Arctic. Since the satellite climatologies enclose the entire spatial and temporal Nicepage12570 occurrence, we could deduce that half of the cirrus are located in the lowest, warmest (224–242 K) cirrus layer and contain a significant amount of liquid-origin cirrus. A specific highlight of the study is the in situ observations of cirrus and humidity in the Asian monsoon anticyclone and the comparison to the surrounding tropics. In the convectively very active Asian monsoon, peak values of Nice and IWC of 30 cm-3 and 1000 ppmv are detected around the cold point tropopause (CPT). Above the CPT, ice particles that are convectively injected can locally add a significant amount of water available for exchange with the stratosphere. We found IWCs of up to 8 ppmv in the Asian monsoon in comparison to only 2 ppmv in the surrounding tropics. Also, the highest RH ice values (120 %–150 %) inside of clouds and in clear sky are observed around and above the CPT. We attribute this to the high H2O mixing ratios (typically 3–5 ppmv) observed in the Asian monsoon compared to 1.5 to 3 ppmv found in the tropics. Above the CPT, supersaturations of 10 %–20 % are observed in regions of weak convective activity and up to about 50 % in the Asian monsoon. This implies that the water available for transport into the stratosphere might be higher than the expected saturation value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Younger Dryas (YD), arguably the most widely studied millennialscale extreme climate event, was characterized by diverse hydroclimate shifts globally and severe cooling at high northern latitudes that abruptly punctuated the warming trend from the last glacial to the present interglacial. To date, a precise understanding of its trigger, propagation, and termination remains elusive. Here, we present speleothem oxygen-isotope data that, in concert with other proxy records, allow us to quantify the timing of the YD onset and termination at an unprecedented subcentennial temporal precision across the North Atlantic, Asian Monsoon-Westerlies, and South American Monsoon regions. Our analysis suggests that the onsets of YD in the North Atlantic (12,870 ± 30 B.P.) and the Asian Monsoon-Westerlies region are essentially synchronous within a few decades and lead the onset in Antarctica, implying a north-to-south climate signal propagation via both atmospheric (decadal-time scale) and oceanic (centennial-time scale) processes, similar to the Dansgaard– Oeschger events during the last glacial period. In contrast, the YD termination may have started first in Antarctica at ∼11,900 B.P., or perhaps even earlier in the western tropical Pacific, followed by the North Atlantic between ∼11,700 ± 40 and 11,610 ± 40 B.P. These observations suggest that the initial YD termination might have originated in the Southern Hemisphere and/or the tropical Pacific, indicating a Southern Hemisphere/tropics to North Atlantic–Asian Monsoon-Westerlies directionality of climatic recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near-surface wind speed observations from 30 manned meteorological stations and 26 automatic weather stations over the Antarctic Ice Sheet are used to examine the robustness of wind speed climatology in six recent global reanalysis products: the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Reanalysis 2 (NCEP2), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and fifth-generation reanalysis (ERA5). Their skills for representing near-surface wind speeds vary by season, with better performance in summer than in winter. At the regional scale, all reanalysis datasets perform more poorly for the magnitude, but better for their year-to-year changes in wind regimes in the escarpment than the coastal and plateau regions. By comparison, ERA5 has the best performance for the monthly averaged wind speed magnitude and the interannual variability of the near-surface wind speed from 1979 onward. Intercomparison exhibits high and significant correlations for annual and seasonal wind speed Antarctic-wide averages from different datasets during their overlapping timespans (1980–2018), despite some regional disagreements between the different reanalyses. Furthermore, all of the reanalyses show positive trends of the annual and summer wind speeds for the 1980–2018 period, which are linked with positive polarity of the southern annular mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CRU TS (Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series) is a widely used climate dataset on a 0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude grid over all land domains of the world except Antarctica. It is derived by the interpolation of monthly climate anomalies from extensive networks of weather station observations. Here we describe the construction of a major new version, CRU TS v4. It is updated to span 1901–2018 by the inclusion of additional station observations, and it will be updated annually. The interpolation process has been changed to use angular-distance weighting (ADW), and the production of secondary variables has been revised to better suit this approach. This implementation of ADW provides improved traceability between each gridded value and the input observations, and allows more informative diagnostics that dataset users can utilise to assess how dataset quality might vary geographically. Measurement(s) temperature • volume of hydrological precipitation • vapour pressure • wet days • cloud cover Technology Type(s) digital curation Factor Type(s) date of observation • location of observation Sample Characteristic - Environment climate system Sample Characteristic - Location Asia • Africa • Europe • Australia • North America • South America Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11980500 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional scholarship long held that rock fracturing from physical processes dominates over chemical rock decay processes in cold climates. The paradigm of the supremacy of cold-climate shattering was questioned by Rapp's discovery (1960) that the flux of dissolved solids leaving a Kärkevagge, Swedish Lapland, watershed exceeded physical denudation processes. Many others since have gone on to document the importance of chemical rock decay in all cold climate landscapes, using a wide variety of analytical approaches. This burgeoning scholarship, however, has only generated a few nanoscale studies. Thus, this paper's purpose rests in an exploration of the potential for nanoscale research to better understand chemical processes operating on rock surfaces in cold climates. Samples from several Antarctica locations, Greenland, the Tibetan Plateau, and high altitude tropical and mid-latitude mountains all illustrate ubiquitous evidence of chemical decay at the nanoscale, even though the surficial appearance of each landscape is dominated by "bare fresh rock." With the growing abundance of focused ion beam (FIB) instruments facilitating sample preparation, the hope is that that future rock decay researchers studying cold climates will add nanoscale microscopy to their bag of tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data reported from mid‐2014 to late 2018 by a regional pilot array of Deep Argo floats in the Southwest Pacific Basin are used to estimate regional temperature anomalies from a long‐term climatology as well as regional trends over the 4.4 years of float data as a function of pressure. The data show warm anomalies that increase with increasing pressure from effectively 0 near 2,000 dbar to over 10 (±1) m°C by 4,800 dbar, uncertainties estimated at 5–95%. The 4.4‐year trend estimate shows warming at an average rate of 3 (±1) m°C/year from 5,000 to 5,600 dbar, in the near‐homogeneous layer of cold, dense bottom water of Antarctic origin. These results suggest acceleration of previously reported long‐term warming trends in the abyssal waters in this region. They also demonstrate the ability of Deep Argo to quantify changes in the deep ocean in near real‐time over short periods with high accuracy. Plain Language Summary: The coldest waters that fill much of the deep ocean worldwide originate near Antarctica. Temperature data collected from oceanographic cruises around the world at roughly 10‐year intervals show that these near‐bottom waters have been warming on average since the 1990s, absorbing a substantial amount of heat. Data from an array of robotic profiling Deep Argo floats deployed in the Southwest Pacific Ocean starting in mid‐2014 reveal that near‐bottom waters there have continued to warm over the past 4.4 years. Furthermore, these new data suggest an acceleration of that warming rate. These data show that Deep Argo floats are capable of accurately measuring regional changes in the deep ocean. The ocean is the largest sink of heat on our warming planet. A global array of Deep Argo floats would provide data on how much Earth's climate system is warming and possibly improve predictions of future warming. Key Points: Deep and bottom waters in the Southwest Pacific Basin from 2014 to 2018 are increasingly warmer than climatology with increasing depthThe warm anomaly is statistically different from zero at pressures >2,800 dbar and reaches 11 (±1) m°C by 5,500 dbar (1 m°C = 0.001 °C)Deep Argo floats measure a regional mean warming rate of about 3 (±1) m°C/year from 5,000 to 5,600 dbar and from 2014 to 2018 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is expected to increase during the twenty-first century as the ocean warms, which will have consequences for ice sheet stability and global sea level rise. Here we present future projections of Antarctic ice shelf melting using the Finite Element Sea Ice/Ice-Shelf Ocean Model (FESOM) forced with atmospheric output from models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CMIP5 models are chosen based on their agreement with historical atmospheric reanalyses over the Southern Ocean; the best-performing models are ACCESS 1.0 and the CMIP5 multimodel mean. Their output is bias-corrected for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. During the twenty-first-century simulations, total ice shelf basal mass loss increases by between 41% and 129%. Every sector of Antarctica shows increased basal melting in every scenario, with the largest increases occurring in the Amundsen Sea. The main mechanism driving this melting is an increase in warm Circumpolar Deep Water on the Antarctic continental shelf. A reduction in wintertime sea ice formation simulated during the twenty-first century stratifies the water column, allowing a warm bottom layer to develop and intrude into ice shelf cavities. This effect may be overestimated in the Amundsen Sea because of a cold bias in the present-day simulation. Other consequences of weakened sea ice formation include freshening of High Salinity Shelf Water and warming of Antarctic Bottom Water. Furthermore, freshening around the Antarctic coast in our simulations causes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to weaken and the Antarctic Coastal Current to strengthen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increasing number of Southern Ocean models now include Antarctic ice-shelf cavities, and simulate thermodynamics at the ice-shelf/ocean interface. This adds another level of complexity to Southern Ocean simulations, as ice shelves interact directly with the ocean and indirectly with sea ice. Here, we present the first model intercomparison and evaluation of present-day ocean/sea-ice/iceshelf interactions, as simulated by two models: a circumpolar Antarctic configuration of MetROMS (ROMS: Regional Ocean Modelling System coupled to CICE: Community Ice CodE) and the global model FESOM (Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model), where the latter is run at two different levels of horizontal resolution. From a circumpolar Antarctic perspective, we compare and evaluate simulated ice-shelf basal melting and sub-ice-shelf circulation, as well as sea-ice properties and Southern Ocean water mass characteristics as they influence the sub-ice-shelf processes. Despite their differing numerical methods, the two models produce broadly similar results and share similar biases in many cases. Both models reproduce many key features of observations but struggle to reproduce others, such as the high melt rates observed in the small warm-cavity ice shelves of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas. Several differences in model design show a particular influence on the simulations. For example, FESOM's greater topographic smoothing can alter the geometry of some ice-shelf cavities enough to affect their melt rates; this improves at higher resolution, since less smoothing is required. In the interior Southern Ocean, the vertical coordinate system affects the degree of water mass erosion due to spurious diapycnal mixing, with MetROMS' terrain-following coordinate leading to more erosion than FESOM's z coordinate. Finally, increased horizontal resolution in FESOM leads to higher basal melt rates for small ice shelves, through a combination of stronger circulation and small-scale intrusions of warm water from offshore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the original setup described in Gallée et al. (2013), the MAR regional climate model including a coupled snowpack/aeolian snow transport parameterization, was run at a fine spatial (5 km horizontal and 2m vertical) resolution over 1 summer month in coastal Adélie Land. Different types of feedback were taken into account in MAR including drag partitioning caused by surface roughness elements. Model outputs are compared with observations made at two coastal locations, D17 and D47, situated respectively 10 and 100 km inland. Wind speed was correctly simulated with positive values of the Nash test (0.60 for D17 and 0.37 for D47) but wind velocities above 10 m s-1 were underestimated at both D17 and D47; at D47, the model consistently underestimated wind velocity by 2 m s-1. Aeolian snow transport events were correctly reproduced with the right timing and a good temporal resolution at both locations except when the maximum particle height was less than 1 m. The threshold friction velocity, evaluated only at D17 for a 7-day period without snowfall, was overestimated. The simulated aeolian snow mass fluxes between 0 and 2m at D47 displayed the same variations but were underestimated compared to the second-generation FlowCapt™ values, as was the simulated relative humidity at 2m above the surface. As a result, MAR underestimated the total aeolian horizontal snow transport for the first 2 m above the ground by a factor of 10 compared to estimations by the second-generation FlowCapt™. The simulation was significantly improved at D47 if a 1-order decrease in the magnitude of z0 was accounted for, but agreement with observations was reduced at D17. Our results suggest that z0 may vary regionally depending on snowpack properties, which are involved in different types of feedback between aeolian transport of snow and z0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The historical simulations of sea ice during 1979 to 2005 by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are compared with satellite observations, Global Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (GIOMAS) output data and Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) output data in this study. Forty-nine models, almost all of the CMIP5 climate models and earth system models with historical simulation, are used. For the Antarctic, multi-model ensemble mean (MME) results can give good climatology of sea ice extent (SIE), but the linear trend is incorrect. The linear trend of satellite-observed Antarctic SIE is 1.29 (±0.57)×105 km2 decade–1; only about 1/7 CMIP5 models show increasing trends, and the linear trend of CMIP5 MME is negative with the value of –3.36 (±0.15)×105 km2 decade–1. For the Arctic, both climatology and linear trend are better reproduced. Sea ice volume (SIV) is also evaluated in this study, and this is a first attempt to evaluate the SIV in all CMIP5 models. Compared with the GIOMAS and PIOMAS data, the SIV values in both the Antarctic and the Arctic are too small, especially for the Antarctic in spring and winter. The GIOMAS Antarctic SIV in September is 19.1×103 km3, while the corresponding Antarctic SIV of CMIP5 MME is 13.0×103 km3 (almost 32% less). The Arctic SIV of CMIP5 in April is 27.1×103 km3, which is also less than that from PIOMAS SIV (29.5×103 km3). This means that the sea ice thickness simulated in CMIP5 is too thin, although the SIE is fairly well simulated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precious little is known about the composition of low-level clouds over the Antarctic Plateau and their effect on climate. In situ measurements at the South Pole using a unique tethered balloon system and ground-based lidar reveal a much higher than anticipated incidence of low-level, mixed-phase clouds (i.e., consisting of supercooled liquid water drops and ice crystals). The high incidence of mixed-phase clouds is currently poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). As a result, the effects that mixed-phase clouds have on climate predictions are highly uncertain. We modify the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) GCM to align with the new observations and evaluate the radiative effects on a continental scale. The net cloud radiative effects (CREs) over Antarctica are increased by +7.4 Wm-2, and although this is a significant change, a much larger effect occurs when the modified model physics are extended beyond the Antarctic continent. The simulations show significant net CRE over the Southern Ocean storm tracks, where recent measurements also indicate substantial regions of supercooled liquid. These sensitivity tests confirm that Southern Ocean CREs are strongly sensitive to mixed-phase clouds colder than -20 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humidity inversions are nearly permanently present in the coastal Antarctic atmosphere. This is shown based on an investigation of statistical characteristics of humidity inversions at 11 Antarctic coastal stations using radiosonde data from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) from 2000 to 2009. The humidity inversion occurrence was highest in winter and spring, and high atmospheric pressure and cloud-free conditions generally increased the occurrence. A typical humidity inversion was less than 200 m deep and 0.2 g kg−1 strong, and a typical humidity profile contained several separate inversion layers. The inversion base height had notable seasonal variations, but generally the humidity inversions were located at higher altitudes than temperature inversions. Roughly half of the humidity inversions were associated with temperature inversions, especially near the surface, and humidity and temperature inversion strengths as well as depths correlated at several stations. On the other hand, approximately 60% of the humidity inversions were accompanied by horizontal advection of water vapor increasing with height, which is also a probable factor supporting humidity inversions. The spatial variability of humidity inversions was linked to the topography and the water vapor content of the air. Compared to previous results for the Arctic, the most striking differences in humidity inversions in the Antarctic were a much higher frequency of occurrence in summer, at least under clear skies, and a reverse seasonal cycle of the inversion height. The results can be used as a baseline for validation of weather prediction and climate models and for studies addressing changes in atmospheric moisture budget in the Antarctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic marine ecosystems have undergone significant changes as a result of human activities in the past and are now responding in varied and often complicated ways to climate change impacts. Recent years have seen the emergence of large-scale mechanistic explanations–or “paradigms of change”–that attempt to synthesize our understanding of past and current changes. In many cases, these paradigms are based on observations that are spatially and temporally patchy. The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), one of Earth’s most rapidly changing regions, has been an area of particular research focus. A recently proposed mechanistic explanation for observed changes in the WAP region relates changes in penguin populations to variability in krill biomass and regional warming. While this scheme is attractive for its simplicity and chronology, it may not account for complex spatio-temporal processes that drive ecosystem dynamics in the region. It might also be difficult to apply to other Antarctic regions that are experiencing some, though not all, of the changes documented for the WAP. We use qualitative network models of differing levels of complexity to test paradigms of change for the WAP ecosystem. Importantly, our approach captures the emergent effects of feedback processes in complex ecological networks and provides a means to identify and incorporate uncertain linkages between network elements. Our findings highlight key areas of uncertainty in the drivers of documented trends, and suggest that a greater level of model complexity is needed in devising explanations for ecosystem change in the Southern Ocean. We suggest that our network approach to evaluating a recent and widely cited paradigm of change for the Antarctic region could be broadly applied in hypothesis testing for other regions and research fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A model simulation forced by prescribed ozone depletion shows strong dynamical modulation of the springtime cooling of the polar stratosphere associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The authors find that in late spring the anomalous radiative cooling in response to ozone depletion is almost canceled above ~100 hPa by an increase in dynamical heating. Between ~300 and ~100 hPa, however, it is enhanced by a reduction in dynamical heating, resulting in the descent of the cold anomaly down to the tropopause. In early summer increased dynamical heating dominates as the radiative cooling diminishes so that the cold anomaly associated with the delayed breakup of the stratospheric vortex is reduced. The anomalous dynamical heating is driven by changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation arising primarily from the dissipation of resolved-scale waves. The model changes are broadly consistent with trends from reanalysis and offline diagnoses of heating rates using a radiation scheme. These results help one to understand dynamically induced change in the evolution and timing of the stratospheric vortex in recent decades and will help to enable improved simulation of the Southern Hemisphere climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, surface and radiosonde data from staffed Antarctic observation stations are compared to output from five reanalyses [Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25), and Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)] over three decades spanning 1979-2008. Bias and year-to-year correlation between the reanalyses and observations are assessed for four variables: mean sea level pressure (MSLP), near-surface air temperature ( Ts), 500-hPa geopotential height ( H500), and 500-hPa temperature ( T500). It was found that CFSR and MERRA are of a sufficiently high resolution for the height of the orography to be accurately reproduced at coastal observation stations. Progressively larger negative Ts biases at these coastal stations are apparent for reanalyses in order of decreasing resolution. However, orography height bias cannot explain large winter warm biases in CFSR, JRA-25, and MERRA (11.1°, 10.2°, and 7.9°C, respectively) at Amundsen-Scott and Vostok, which have been linked to problems with representing the surface energy balance. Linear trends in the annual-mean T500 and H500 averaged over Antarctica as a whole were found to be most reliable in CFSR, ERA-Interim, and MERRA, none of which show significant trends over the period 1979-2008. In contrast JRA-25 shows significant negative trends over 1979-2008 and ERA-40 gives significant positive trends during the 1980s (evident in both T500 and H500). Comparison to observations indicates that the positive trend in ERA-40 is spurious. At the smaller spatial scale of individual stations all five reanalyses have some spurious trends. However, ERA-Interim was found to be the most reliable for MSLP and H500 trends at station locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A preindustrial control run and an ensemble of twentieth-century integrations of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), are evaluated for Antarctic sea ice climatology, modes of variability, trends, and covariance with related physical variables such as surface temperature and sea level pressure. Compared to observations, the mean ice cover is too extensive in all months. This is in part related to excessively strong westerly winds over ~50°-60°S, which drive a large equatorward meridional ice transport and enhanced ice growth near the continent and also connected with a cold bias in the Southern Ocean. In spite of these biases in the climatology, the model's sea ice variability compares well to observations. The leading mode of austral winter sea ice concentration exhibits a dipole structure with anomalies of opposite sign in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. Both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the southern annular mode (SAM) project onto this mode. In twentieth-century integrations, Antarctic sea ice area exhibits significant decreasing annual trends in all six ensemble members from 1950 to 2005, in apparent contrast to observations that suggest a modest ice area increase since 1979. Two ensemble members show insignificant changes when restricted to 1979-2005. The ensemble mean shows a significant increase in the austral summer SAM index over 1960-2005 and 1979-2005 that compares well with the observed SAM trend. However, Antarctic warming and sea ice loss in the model are closely connected to each other and not to the trend in the SAM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents the first continuous, high spatiotemporal resolution time series of landfast sea ice extent along the East Antarctic coast for the period March 2000-December 2008. The time series was derived from consecutive 20-day cloud-free Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) composite images. Fast ice extent across the East Antarctic coast shows a statistically significant (1.43%% ±0.30%% yr−1) increase. Regionally, there is a strong increase in the Indian Ocean sector (20°-90°E, 4.07%% ±0.42%% yr−1), and a nonsignificant decrease in the western Pacific Ocean sector (90°-160°E, −0.40%% ±0.37%% yr−1). An apparent shift from a negative to a positive extent trend is observed in the Indian Ocean sector from 2004. This shift also coincides with a greater amount of interannual variability. No such shift in apparent trend is observed in the western Pacific Ocean sector, where fast ice extent is typically higher and variability lower than the Indian Ocean sector. The limit to the maximum fast ice areal extent imposed by the location of grounded icebergs modulates the shape of the mean annual fast ice extent cycle to give a broad maximum and an abrupt, relatively transient minimum. Ten distinct fast ice regimes are identified, related to variations in bathymetry and coastal configuration. Fast ice is observed to form in bays, on the windward side of large grounded icebergs, between groups of smaller grounded icebergs, between promontories, and upwind of coastal features (e.g., glacier tongues). Analysis of the timing of fast ice maxima and minima is also presented and compared with overall sea ice maxima/minima timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concentrations of oxygen (O2) and other dissolved gases in the oceanic mixed layer are often used to calculate air-sea gas exchange fluxes. The mixed layer depth (Zmix) may be defined using criteria based on temperature or density differences to a reference depth near the ocean surface. However, temperature criteria fail in regions with strong haloclines such as the Southern Ocean where heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes interact to establish mixed layers. Moreover, the time scales of air-sea exchange differ for gases and heat, so that Zmix defined using oxygen may be different than Zmix defined using temperature or density. Here, we propose to define an O2-based mixed layer depth, Zmix (O2), as the depth where the relative difference between the O2 concentration and a reference value at a depth equivalent to 10 dbar equals 0.5%. This definition was established by analysis of O2 profiles from the Bellingshausen Sea (west of the Antarctic Peninsula) and corroborated by visual inspection. Comparisons of Zmix (O2) with Zmix based on potential temperature differences, i.e., Zmix (0.2 &deg:C) and Zmix (0.5 &deg:C), and potential density differences, i.e., Zmix (0.03 kgm-3) and Zmix (0.125 kgm-3), showed that Zmix (O2) closely follows Zmix (0.03 kgm-3). Further comparisons with published Zmix climatologies and Zmixderived from World Ocean Atlas 2005 data were also performed. To establish Zmixfor use with biological production estimates in the absence of O2 profiles, we suggest using Zmix (0.03 kgm-3), which is also the basis for the climatology by de Boyer Montégut et al. (2004). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface-based inversions (SBIs) are frequent features of the Arctic and Antarctic atmospheric boundary layer. They influence vertical mixing of energy, moisture and pollutants, cloud formation, and surface ozone destruction. Their climatic variability is related to that of sea ice and planetary albedo, important factors in climate feedback mechanisms. However, climatological polar SBI properties have not been fully characterized nor have climate model simulations of SBIs been compared comprehensively to observations. Using 20 years of twice-daily observations from 39 Arctic and 6 Antarctic radiosonde stations, this study examines the spatial and temporal variability of three SBI characteristic-frequency of occurrence, depth (from the surface to the inversion top), and intensity (temperature difference over the SBI depth)-and relationships among them. In both polar regions, SBIs are more frequent, deeper, and stronger in winter and autumn than in summer and spring. In the Arctic, these tendencies increase from the Norwegian Sea eastward toward the East Siberian Sea, associated both with (seasonal and diurnal) variations in solar elevation angle at the standard radiosonde observation times and with differences between continental and maritime climates. Two state-of-the-art climate models and one reanalysis dataset show similar seasonal patterns and spatial distributions of SBI properties as the radiosonde observations, but with biases in their magnitudes that differ among the models and that are smaller in winter and autumn than in spring and summer. SBI frequency, depth, and intensity are positively correlated, both spatially and temporally, and all three are anticorrelated with surface temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The Adélie Land coastal region of Antarctica is one of the most prominent cyclogenesis regions in the Southern Hemisphere, and is adjacent to the continent's most intense katabatic wind regime. However, the physical mechanisms responsible for cyclogenesis are not known. A manual analysis of cyclogenesis for the 2003-2005 period using output from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) identifies two primary patterns of cyclogenesis near the Adélie Land coast. For 'secondary development' cyclones, enhanced low-level cyclonic vorticity and baroclinicity result from the combination of an existing synoptic-scale cyclone to the west, coastal barrier winds and katabatic winds. 'Lee cyclogenesis' occurs near 152°E on the cyclonic-shear side of the Adélie Land katabatic jet, where a low-level warm potential temperature anomaly sets up a lee trough that becomes mobile with the arrival of upper-level synoptic-scale forcing. The representation of both 'secondary development' and 'lee cyclogenesis' cyclones in an automated cyclone-tracking scheme is explored, where it is found that the automated scheme overestimates cyclogenesis for this region. The location of the Antarctic coastal cyclogenesis maximum near Adélie Land is due to the unique juxtaposition of the extraordinary katabatic wind regime and dissipating synoptic-scale cyclones to the west. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study on a firn densification model that simulates Antarctic firn density profiles as well as its temporal evolution and surface height. It mentions the model's utilization of an ameliorated firn densification expression that is adjusted to fit depth-density measurements. It also notes its steady-state and time-dependent model versions which respectively simulate strong variability in firn layer thickness and operate in Antarctic places with various climate conditions.

We investigate the relationship between climate change and hydrate stability in two peri-Antarctic areas: Antarctic Peninsula and South Chile. We consider these areas because the polar and subpolar areas are the most sensitive about global change. The zone, where the methane can be easily released by hydrate melting, is the shallow water, that is, in proximity of the intersection between the BSR and the sea bottom. In order to simulate the effect of climate change on hydrate stability, we consider the following seven scenarios for both areas: present environmental condition; sea bottom temperature increase/decrease of 1◦C water depth increase/decrease of 100 m; sea bottom temperature and water depth increase/decrease of 1◦C and 100 m, respectively. On the basis of our result, we can draw the conclusion that the modeling is a useful tool to understand the effect of the climate change on hydrate stability. Moreover, in these areas where the sea bottom temperature is influenced by temperature increase, slides could be easily triggered by hydrate dissociation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three temporary Automatic Weather Stations measured summertime surface layer climate over the Darwin-Hatherton Glacial system. These data were used to test a Polar optimized Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar-WRF) simulation for December as a case study. Observations show differences in hourly averaged solar and net all-wave radiation between white ice and blue ice areas (BIAs). Although the down-welling solar radiation is higher over the white ice region, the net all-wave energy is higher over the BIA. Derived albedo for each surface type confirms that the blue ice areas have lower albedo. Also, the hourly averaged temperatures are higher at lower elevation stations, creating a gradient towards the Ross Ice Shelf. Analysis shows that there is a diurnal oscillation in strength and intensity of the katabatic wind. The two lower stations register a distinct reversal of wind direction in the early afternoon due to intrusion of an anabatic circulation. Anabatic winds are not prevalent further up the Darwin Glacier. A high-resolution Polar-WRF simulation as a case study shows good agreement with observations. The December 2008 case study is characterized by a strong south-westerly katabatic wind over Hatherton, whereas the flow over Lower Darwin was diurnally reversing. Polar-WRF shows that the katabatic front advanced and retreated periodically between Hatherton and Lower Darwin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the long-range dependency, climate noise characteristics, and nonlinear temperature trends of eight Antarctic stations from the Reference Antarctic Data for Environmental Research (READER) dataset. Evidence is shown that Antarctic temperatures are long-range dependent. To identify possible nonlinear trends, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method is used, and then the question of whether the observed trends can arise from internal atmospheric fluctuations is examined. To answer this question, surrogate data are generated from two paradigmatic null models: a standard first-order autoregressive process representing a short-range dependent process and a fractional integrated process representing a long-range dependent process. It is found that three of the eight stations show statistically significant trends when tested against the short-range dependent process while only the Faraday--Vernadsky station temperature time series shows a significant trend when tested against the long-range dependent null model. All other considered stations show no trends that are statistically significant against the two null models, and thus they can be explained by internal atmospheric variability. These results imply that more attention should be given to assessing the correlation structure of climate time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring long-term, large-scale changes in the Antarctic sea ice thickness is not currently possible due to the sampling constraints of the ship-based and airborne observations which comprise most of the available thickness data. Satellite radar altimetry has been used to measure sea ice thickness variability in the Arctic where it is assumed that the highest amplitude radar return originates from the snow/ice interface as the Arctic snow is cold and dry; however, this may not be the case in the Antarctic due to more complex snow stratigraphy caused by warmer winter temperatures and frequent snow flooding. We present the first measurements of radar penetration into snow cover on Antarctic sea ice in the Ku-band at which satellite radar altimeters operate. Data were taken using a sled-borne radar on sea ice off East Antarctica during September and October 2007. Radar data and field measurements of snow density, thickness, wetness, and layers were taken over a range of locations including snow packs with flooding, hard crusts, and icy layers. Detailed snow pit studies showed that the snow/ice interface was the dominant scattering surface only for snow without morphological features or flooding. Analysis of transect data showed that the mean depth of the dominant scattering surface of the radar was only around 50% of the mean measured snow depth, indicating that the dominant scattering surface was not always the snow/ice interface for the Antarctic sea ice surveyed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduces articles concerning surface fluxes in the March 2005 issue of "Theoretical and Applied Climatology". Observation on local temperature profiles in Antarctica; Description of a tool for the detection of coherent structures in complex terrain; Analysis of carbon dioxide flux measurements.

The Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (SMR) on board the Odin satellite, launched in February 2001, observes thermal emissions of stratospheric nitric acid (HNO3) originating from the Earth limb in a band centred at 544.6 GHz. Height-resolved measurements of the global distribution of nitric acid in the stratosphere were performed approximately on two observation days per week. An HNO3 climatology based on more than 7 years of observations from August 2001 to April 2009 covering the vertical range between typically ~19 and 45 km (~1.5-60 hPa or ~500-1800K in terms of potential temperature) was created. The study highlights the spatial and seasonal variation of nitric acid in the stratosphere, characterised by a pronounced seasonal cycle at middle and high latitudes with maxima during late fall and minima during spring, strong denitrification in the lower stratosphere of the Antarctic polar vortex during winter (the irreversible removal of NOy by the sedimentation of cloud particles containing HNO3), as well as large quantities of HNO3 formed every winter at high-latitudes in the middle and upper stratosphere. A strong inter-annual variability is observed in particular at high latitudes. A comparison with a stratospheric HNO3 climatology, based on over 7 years of UARS/MLS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite/Microwave Limb Sounder) measurements from the 1990s, shows good consistency and agreement of the main morphological features in the potential temperature range ~465 to ~960 K, if the different characteristics of the data sets such as the better altitude resolution of Odin/SMR as well as the slightly different altitude ranges are considered. Odin/SMR reaches higher up and UARS/MLS lower down in the stratosphere. An overview from 1991 to 2009 of stratospheric nitric acid is provided (with a short gap between 1998 and 2001), if the global measurements of both experiments are taken together. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice cores extracted from the Antarctic ice sheet suggest that glacial conditions, and the relationship between isotopically derived temperatures and atmospheric have been constant over the last 800,000 years of the Late Pleistocene epoch. But independent lines of evidence, such as the extent of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, sea level and other temperature records, point towards a fluctuating severity of glacial periods, particularly during the more extreme glacial stadials centred around 340,000 and 420,000 years ago (marine isotope stages 10 and 12). Previously unidentified mechanisms therefore appear to have mediated the relationship between insolation, CO2 and climate. Here we test whether northward migration of the subtropical front (STF) off the southeastern coast of South Africa acts as a gatekeeper for the Agulhas current, which controls the transport of heat and salt from the Indo-Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. Using a new 800,000-year record of sea surface temperature and ocean productivity from ocean sediment core MD962077, we demonstrate that during cold stadials (particularly marine isotope stages 10 and 12), productivity peaked and sea surface temperature was up to 6 °C cooler than modern temperatures. This suggests that during these cooler stadials, the STF moved northward by up to 7° latitude, nearly shutting off the Agulhas current. Our results, combined with faunal assemblages from the south Atlantic show that variable northwards migration of the Southern Hemisphere STF can modulate the severity of each glacial period by altering the strength of the Agulhas current carrying heat and salt to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. We show hence that the degree of northwards migration of the STF can partially decouple global climate from atmospheric partial pressure of carbon dioxide, , and help to resolve the long-standing puzzle of differing glacial amplitudes within a consistent range of atmospheric . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During CHINARE-22 (December 2005-March 2006), we investigated six penguin colonies in the Vestfold Hills, East Antarctica, and collected several penguin ornithogenic sediment cores, samples of fresh guano and modern penguin bone and feather. We selected seven penguin bones and feathers and six sediments from the longest sediment core and performed AMS 14 C dating. The results indicate that penguins occupied the Vestfold Hills as early as 8500 calibrated years before present (cal. yr bp ), following local deglaciation and the formation of the ice free area. This is the first report on the Holocene history of penguins in the Vestfold Hills. As in other areas of Antarctica, penguins occupied this area as soon as local ice retreated and the ice free area formed, and they are very sensitive to climatic and environmental changes. This work provides the foundation for understanding the history of penguins occupation in Vestfold Hills, East Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The meteorological characteristics and hydrological response of an extreme warm, and cold summer in the McMurdo Dry Valleys are compared. The driver behind the warmer summer conditions was the occurrence of down-valley winds, which were not present during the colder summer. Occurrence of the summer down-valley winds coincided with lower than typical mean sea level pressure in the Ross Sea region. There was no significant difference in the amount of solar radiation received during the two summers. Compared to the cold summer, glaciological and hydrological response to the warm summer in Taylor Valley included significant glacier mass loss, and 3- to nearly 6000-fold increase in annual streamflow. Lake levels decreased slightly during the cold summer, and increased between 0.54 and 1.01 m during the warm summer, effectively erasing the prior 14 years of lake level lowering in a period of three months. Lake level rise during the warm summer was shown to be strongly associated with and increase in degree days above freezing at higher elevations. We suggest that strong summer down-valley winds may have been responsible for the generation of large glacial lakes during the Last Glacial Maximum when ice core records recorded annual temperatures significantly colder than present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Variation in species richness has been related to (1) environmental conditions (water, energy and habitat characteristics) and (2) regional differences (contingent historical events and regional particularities that result in differences between regional faunas acting at broad extents). Whereas climatic factors have been widely studied, the effects of regional differences are less often quantified. This work aims to characterize global trends in the species richness of mammal assemblages with respect to both current and historical influences. Location All terrestrial biogeographical realms except Antarctica. Methods Species richness in checklists from 224 sites distributed worldwide were investigated by partitioning the variation between a general set of habitat/climate factors, biogeographical regions, and their overlaps. Additional analyses studied the specific overlaps of region, water and energy. Data were also divided according to area to determine if the strength of these effects varies according to the size of sites. Results Environmental effects explained 38% of richness variation across all sites, whereas environmentally independent regional effects explained 11% and the overlap between region and environment explained 13%. Results were similar when only larger sites (between 1000 km2 and 10,000 km2) were considered. However, the importance of the overlap between region and all environmental variables was greater in smaller sites (between 100 km2 and 1000 km2). In contrast, the specific importance of water and energy variables and their overlap with region was greater in larger sites. The strength of the independent effect of region remained almost invariant regardless of the size of the sites studied. Main conclusions The relationship between species richness and climate varies with scale and among regions. Although environmental variables are the strongest correlates of richness, the unique history and physiographic characteristics of a region produce differences between the richness of mammal assemblages and their response to environmental gradients. The importance of environmental variables varies with scale: climatic gradients are more important at coarse grain (larger sites), possibly as a result of their effects on species ranges, whereas habitat type is more important at the smaller sites, where the importance of ecological interactions increases. Therefore, regional differences and the scale at which richness is measured should be taken into account when evaluating species richness–energy hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]