Search

Cotton is a major economic crop predominantly cultivated under rainfed situations. The accurate prediction of cotton yield invariably helps farmers, industries, and policy makers. The final cotton yield is mostly determined by the weather patterns that prevail during the crop growing phase. Crop yield prediction with greater accuracy is possible due to the development of innovative technologies which analyses the bigdata with its high-performance computing abilities. Machine learning technologies can make yield prediction reasonable and faster and with greater flexibility than process based complex crop simulation models. The present study demonstrates the usability of ML algorithms for yield forecasting and facilitates the comparison of different models. The cotton yield was simulated by employing the weekly weather indices as inputs and the model performance was assessed by nRMSE, MAPE and EF values. Results show that stacked generalised ensemble model and artificial neural networks predicted the cotton yield with lower nRMSE, MAPE and higher efficiency compared to other models. Variable importance studies in LASSO and ENET model found minimum temperature and relative humidity as the main determinates of cotton yield in all districts. The models were ranked based these performance metrics in the order of Stacked generalised ensemble > ANN > PCA ANN > SMLR ANN > LASSO> ENET > SVM > PCA SMLR > SMLR SVM > SMLR. This study shows that stacked generalised ensembling and ANN method can be used for reliable yield forecasting at district or county level and helps stakeholders in timely decision-making., (© 2024. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to International Society of Biometeorology.)

Decision prediction based on neurophysiological signals is of great application value in many real‐life situations, especially in human–AI collaboration or counteraction. Single‐trial analysis of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals is a very valuable step in the development of an online decision‐prediction system. However, previous EEG‐based decision‐prediction methods focused mainly on averaged EEG signals of all decision‐making trials to predict an individual's general decision tendency (e.g., risk seeking or aversion) over a period rather than on a specific decision response in a single trial. In the present study, we used a rock–paper–scissors game, which is a common multichoice decision‐making task, to explore how to predict participants' single‐trial choice with EEG signals. Forty participants, comprising 20 females and 20 males, played the game with a computer player for 330 trials. Considering that the decision‐making process of this game involves multiple brain regions and neural networks, we proposed a new algorithm named common spatial pattern‐attractor metagene (CSP‐AM) to extract CSP features from different frequency bands of EEG signals that occurred during decision making. The results showed that a multilayer perceptron classifier achieved an accuracy significantly exceeding the chance level among 88.57% (31 of 35) of participants, verifying the classification ability of CSP features in multichoice decision‐making prediction. We believe that the CSP‐AM algorithm could be used in the development of proactive AI systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of the research is to forecast the trend of the printing and writing paper consumption in Iran for a five-year period using both modern and classical methods. In order to do the forecasting, predictability of time series was primarily studied using Durbin-Watson and Runs tests. Then, artificial neural network model (multilayer perceptrons (MLP)) and univariate and multivariate classical forecasting models such as univariate single exponential smoothing (SES), double exponential smoothing (DES), holt-winters exponential smoothing (HWES) and Box- Jenkins (ARIMA) models, and multivariate econometric model all together were compared in terms of the standard statistical measures. Finally, the consumption of printing and writing paper in Iran was forecasted up to the year 2017 using the most appropriate model. The results of both the parametric test of Durbin-Watson and non-parametric test of Runs show that, the printing and writing consumption series is non-random and predictable. The results of comparing different forecast methods showed that the artificial neural network model has higher forecasting accuracy than the classical models and it is more appropriate for the five-year forecast period. Also, the results of forecasting by using neural network model (MLP), revealed that the printing and writing paper consumption in Iran is forecasted to increase by 5.3%, from around 375 thousand tons in 2012 to 420 thousand tons in 2013, but it falls over the five-year forecast period, from 5.3% in 2013 to 0.07% in 2017.

Mathematical modelling is a powerful tool in science. Causal mathematical models based on a clear picture of how key variables interact enable a deeper understanding of a given situation and provide reliable predictions. This is a classic approach in science. Unfortunately, this approach is declining in pulp and paper-related research in favour of simply reporting experimental data. The lack of a framework provided by a model diminishes the value of much experimental work. Therefore, the increased use of mathematical models is encouraged, and this approach is illustrated via several practical examples from our work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is a thermal comfort index that describes how the human body experiences ambient conditions. It has units of temperature and considers physiological aspects of the human body. It takes into account the effect of air temperature, humidity, wind, radiation, and clothes. It is increasingly used in many countries as a measure of thermal comfort for outdoor conditions, and its value is calculated as part of the operational meteorological forecast. At the same time, forecasts of outdoor UTCI tend to have a relatively large error caused by the error of meteorological forecasts. In Slovenia, there is a relatively dense network of meteorological stations. Crucially, at these stations, global solar radiation measurements are performed continuously, which makes estimating the actual value of the UTCI more accurate compared to the situation where no radiation measurements are available. We used seven years of measurements in hourly resolution from 42 stations to first verify the operational UTCI forecast for the first forecast day and, secondly, to try to improve the forecast via post-processing. We used two machine-learning methods, linear regression, and neural networks. Both methods have successfully reduced the error in the operational UTCI forecasts. Both methods reduced the daily mean error from about 2.6 ∘ C to almost zero, while the daily mean absolute error decreased from 5 ∘ C to 3 ∘ C for the neural network and 3.5 ∘ C for linear regression. Both methods, especially the neural network, also substantially reduced the dependence of the error on the time of the day., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow gauge networks 1 . Accurate and timely warnings are critical for mitigating flood risks 2 , but hydrological simulation models typically must be calibrated to long data records in each watershed. Here we show that artificial intelligence-based forecasting achieves reliability in predicting extreme riverine events in ungauged watersheds at up to a five-day lead time that is similar to or better than the reliability of nowcasts (zero-day lead time) from a current state-of-the-art global modelling system (the Copernicus Emergency Management Service Global Flood Awareness System). In addition, we achieve accuracies over five-year return period events that are similar to or better than current accuracies over one-year return period events. This means that artificial intelligence can provide flood warnings earlier and over larger and more impactful events in ungauged basins. The model developed here was incorporated into an operational early warning system that produces publicly available (free and open) forecasts in real time in over 80 countries. This work highlights a need for increasing the availability of hydrological data to continue to improve global access to reliable flood warnings., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Paper folding is a common activity in East Asian kindergartens, but its potential value to early spatial skills have not been empirically explored. This study aims to investigate whether and how paper folding skills can predict spatial ability (SA) in the early years. Altogether 101 preschoolers (Ngirl = 45, M age = 4.54, SD = 0.75) were randomly sampled from two Hong Kong kindergartens and invited to complete the map-use and the paper folding tasks. The paper folding task taps two levels of children's paper folding skills: Basic Folding Skill (BFS) and Advanced Folding Skill (AFS). The parents reported the demographic information and their involvement in spatial activities at home. The results indicated the following: (1) there was a significant age-related increase in the paper folding performance; (2) child age could significantly predict both BFS (β = 0.551, p < 0.001) and AFS (β = 0.627, p < 0.001), while parental involvement could only predict BFS (β = 0.246, p < 0.001); (3) after controlling for confounders, paper folding skills could significantly predict SA as measured by the map-use task; (4) BFS was found to mediate the relationship between parental involvement and SA. The educational implications of these findings are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The thin-walled tubular deployable composite boom (DCB) can realize folding and deploying functions, and it has a good application prospect in space field. This paper investigates the folding behaviour of the tubular DCB by analytical modeling. Based on the Archimedes' helix, the geometrical model of the DCB was established. By combining equilibrium equation and energy principle, an analytical model to predicted the folding moment versus rotational displacement of the DCB was presented. The failure indices in the equal-sense and opposite-sense folding processes were calculated utilizing Tsai‐Hill and maximum stress criteria. Analytical results agreed well with experimental and numerical results. At last, the influence of geometric parameters (i.e., radius, central angle and thickness of cross-section) on the folding behaviour of the DCB was further studied using the analytical model. [Display omitted] • An analytical model is presented to predict the folding behaviour of the deployable composite boom (DCB). • Failure indices are calculated using two criteria in equal-sense and opposite-sense folding processes. • The analytical model is validated against experimental and numerical results, showing good prediction accuracy. • Geometric parameters (radius, central angle, and thickness) significantly affect the folding behavior of the DCB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy production throughout low-voltage grids has gradually increased in electrical distribution systems, therefore introducing small energy producers - prosumers. This paradigm challenges the traditional unidirectional energy distribution flow to include disperse power production from renewables. To understand how energy usage can be optimized in the dynamic electrical grid, it is important to understand the behavior of prosumers and their impact on the grid's operational procedures. The main focus of this study is to investigate how grid operators can obtain an automatic data-driven system for the low-voltage electrical grid management, by analyzing the available grid topology and time-series consumption data from a real-life test area. The aim is to argue for how different consumer profiles, clustering and prediction methods contribute to the grid-related operations. Ultimately, this work is intended for future research directions that can contribute to improving the trade-off between systematic and scalable data models and software computational challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate monitoring of insulation aging of oil-paper insulation power equipment such as oil-immersed transformers is a key and difficult point in the field of high voltage research. In this paper, a method based on Raman spectroscopy to diagnose the aging degree of oil-paper insulation is discussed. Raman detections of the samples were carried out on a self-built Raman detection platform. The partial least squares method was used to extract and analyze the spectral features. The aging time of the sample was used to supervise the feature extraction of oil-paper insulation Raman data, and the intrinsic mathematical relationship between the Raman features of oil-paper insulation and the aging was excavated. Finally, a quantitative aging diagnostic model based on Raman spectral features of oil-paper insulation to predict its aging state was built with the assistance of the support vector regression method. The results of aging time prediction for 30 test samples show that the mean square error is 0.0123 and the square of correlation coefficient is 0.987. The proposed method provides a new idea for Raman aging diagnosis of oil-paper insulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the present position of a specialized scientific library, the increase in the number of such libraries, and their development in conjunction with that of the institutes and laboratories to which they belong. It describes the danger for these libraries of too great expansion and the need to restrict themselves to a well-defined area. The different categories of specialized scientific libraries are reviewed, as well as the role of each of these categories vis-à-vis overburdened university libraries. There is an account of the assistance given [by specialized scientific libraries] to university libraries now and in the near future.

The condition assessment of oil–paper insulation is a vital issue in transformer management. To investigate the effect of moisture content on the accuracy of the prediction model, accelerated ageing experiments were performed with different initial moisture content (IMC) in laboratory condition. Two types of multi-parameter lifetime prediction models, e.g. with and without consideration of IMC, were presented for comparison purpose. The authors found that a better accuracy for its prediction results could be achieved by establishing the prediction models with the consideration of IMC. Besides, models considering IMC have better economic feasibility than that without considering IMC(non-IMC) as its total cost is cheaper according to life cycle cost (LCC) calculations. In addition, failure probability based on the proposed prediction models was also calculated as a direct indicator for evaluating the oil–paper insulation status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Advanced neuro-fuzzy modeling, namely an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), was employed to develop models for the prediction of suspended solids (SS) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal of a full-scale wastewater treatment plant treating process wastewaters from a paper mill. In order to improve the network performance, fuzzy subtractive clustering was used to identify model''s architecture and optimize fuzzy rule, meanwhile principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce the input variable dimensionality. Input variables were reduced from six to four for COD and SS models, by considering PCA results and linear correlation matrices among input and output variables. The results indicate that reasonable forecasting and control performances have been achieved through the developed system. The minimum mean absolute percentage errors of 1.003% and 0.5161% for CODeff and SSeff could be achieved using ANFIS. The maximum correlation coefficient values for CODeff and SSeff were 0.9912 and 0.9882, respectively. The minimum mean square errors of 1.2883 and 0.0342, and the minimum RMSEs of 1.135 and 0.1849 for CODeff and SSeff could also be achieved. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

With a sample of 228 psychology papers that failed to replicate, we tested whether the trajectory of citation patterns changes following the publication of a failure to replicate. Across models, we found consistent evidence that failing to replicate predicted lower future citations and that the size of this reduction increased over time. In a 14-y postpublication period, we estimated that the publication of a failed replication was associated with an average citation decline of 14% for original papers. These findings suggest that the publication of failed replications may contribute to a self-correcting science by decreasing scholars’ reliance on unreplicable original findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Process-monitoring laboratories in the pulp and paper industry generally use a combination of wet chemical analyses and physical measurements to certify the fitness of a production pulp for a specific end-use. These laboratory tests require time and the effort of trained personnel, limiting their utility for real-time process control. Here we show that Raman probes of unrefined cellulosic pulps, well-suited to the online measurement of in-process materials, can predict the quality attributes of manufactured papers. The accuracy of prediction improves when the covariance is modelled in a reduced measurement space selected by a data-driven, feature-selection technique referred to as a Template Oriented Genetic Algorithm (TOGA). TOGA, combined with discrete wavelet transform (DWT), isolates functional-group features that correlate best with mechanical properties paper derived from refined pulp. Paper makers refine market pulps to build sheet strength using a beating process that decreases freeness as it increases fibre-fibre bonding. Methods demonstrated here predict manufactured sheet properties obtainable after any specified degree of refining from the Raman spectrum of an unrefined pulp. This analysis capacity will enable both vendors of market pulp and makers of sheet paper to specify in advance the amount of beating required to produce a desired product, thereby saving cost and conserving resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of information technology, scientific social networks (SSNs) have become the fastest and most convenient way for researchers to communicate with each other. Many published papers are shared via SSNs every day, resulting in the problem of information overload. How to appropriately recommend personalized and highly valuable papers for researchers is becoming more urgent. However, when recommending papers in SSNs, only a small amount of positive instances are available, leaving a vast amount of unlabelled data, in which negative instances and potential unseen positive instances are mixed together, which naturally belongs to One-Class Collaborative Filtering (OCCF) problem. Therefore, considering the extreme data imbalance and data sparsity of this OCCF problem, a hybrid approach of Social and Content aware One-class Recommendation of Papers in SSNs, termed SCORP, is proposed in this study. Unlike previous approaches recommended to address the OCCF problem, social information, which has been proved playing a significant role in performing recommendations in many domains, is applied in both the profiling of content-based filtering and the collaborative filtering to achieve superior recommendations. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed SCORP approach, a real-life dataset from CiteULike was employed. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach is superior to all of the compared approaches, thus providing a more effective method for recommending papers in SSNs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall is one of the remarkable hydrologic variables that is directly connected to the sustainable environment for any region over the globe. The present study aims to review different research papers on rainfall forecasting using artificial intelligence (AI) models including a bibliographic assessment of the most popular AI models and a comparison of the results based on the accuracy parameters. 39 journal papers, published in renowned international journals from 2000 to 2023, were studied extensively to categorize modeling techniques, best models, characteristics of input data, the period for the input variables, data division, and so forth. Although certain drawbacks still exist, the results of reviewed studies suggest that AI models may help simulate rainfall in various geographic locations. In some cases, the data splitting mechanism was delivered to the model itself so that the model accuracy gets improved. The recommendations from the reviewed papers will help future researchers fill the research gaps, especially tuning the hyperparameters while building the training models. Hybrid models were advised in some cases to minimize the gap between the simulated and the observed data. All recommendations from reviewed papers aimed to achieve a resilient rainfall forecasting model in the era of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is a guest editorial from the journal IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution. It discusses the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in reliable forecasting for energy sectors. The editorial highlights the challenges of integrating renewable energy sources and fluctuating electricity demand, and emphasizes the importance of accurate forecasting for system operators. The document also provides summaries of several papers included in a special issue on AI-empowered forecasting in energy sectors, covering topics such as load forecasting, wind power prediction, and control parameter optimization. The editorial concludes by recommending further research and practical implementations of AI approaches in the energy sectors. [Extracted from the article]

Computational social science is more than just large repositories of digital data and the computational methods needed to construct and analyse them. It also represents a convergence of different fields with different ways of thinking about and doing science. The goal of this Perspective is to provide some clarity around how these approaches differ from one another and to propose how they might be productively integrated. Towards this end we make two contributions. The first is a schema for thinking about research activities along two dimensions-the extent to which work is explanatory, focusing on identifying and estimating causal effects, and the degree of consideration given to testing predictions of outcomes-and how these two priorities can complement, rather than compete with, one another. Our second contribution is to advocate that computational social scientists devote more attention to combining prediction and explanation, which we call integrative modelling, and to outline some practical suggestions for realizing this goal.