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1. Can a quantitative assessment of SARS-CoV-2 PCR predict degree of severity and outcomes in critical care patients with COVID-19?

Author

L. Baker, Buddhini Samaraweera, R. Stonham, Emanuela Pelosi, L. Orchard, Kordo Saeed, N. Ahmad-Saeed, Adhyana I K Mahanama, Eleri Wilson-Davies, Chantelle Monck, A. Dushianthan, and S. Friar

Subjects
Mechanical ventilation, Microbiology (medical), medicine.medical_specialty, business.industry, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), medicine.medical_treatment, Acute kidney injury, Retrospective cohort study, Gold standard (test), Original Articles, medicine.disease, Intensive care unit, Degree (temperature), law.invention, Infectious Diseases, law, Internal medicine, medicine, Stage (cooking), business
Abstract

Real-Time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) is the gold standard diagnostic method for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Cycle threshold (Ct) is defined as the number of heating and cooling cycles required during the PCR process. Ct-values are inversely proportional to the amount of target nucleic acid in a sample. Our aim, in this retrospective study, was to determine the impact of serial SARS-CoV-2 qPCR Ct-values on: mortality, need for mechanical ventilation (MV) and development of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with COVID-19. Ct values were evaluated during the time points from pre-ICU admission to week 1, week 2 and week 3 during ICU stay;impact on mortality, need for MV and AKI was determined. There was a continuous increment in Ct-values over the ICU stay from 1st week through to 3rd week. Although not significant, lower ICU 1st week Ct-values were associated with Black ethnicity, increased need for MV and mortality. However, patients who had developed AKI at any stage of their illness had significantly lower Ct-values compared to those with normal renal function. When ICU 1st-week Ct-values are subcategorised as 30 the 28-day survival probability was less for patients with Ct-values of

Published
2021
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2. Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study

Author

Harry D Wilson, Elaine O'Toole, Andrew Bassett, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Beth Blane, Scott Goodwin, Giri Shankar, Joseph Hughes, Lucy R. Frost, Alicia Thornton, Scott Elliott, Tammy V Merrill, Sheila Waugh, Alexander Adams, Peter Muir, Graciela Sluga, Rebecca Williams, Hannah Dent, Christophe Fraser, Shavanthi Rajatileka, John C. Hartley, Luke B Snell, Benjamin J Cogger, Lance Turtle, Alex Makunin, John A. Todd, Victoria Wright, Daniela De Angelis, James McKenna, Dinesh Aggarwal, Jonathan K. Ball, Jillian Durham, Garren Scott, Thushan I de Silva, Veena Raviprakash, Hannah M Pymont, Jason Coombes, Anita Lucaci, Luke R. Green, Leigh M Jackson, Hermione J. Webster, Louis du Plessis, David A. Jackson, Minal Patel, Áine O'Toole, Ravi Gupta, Marc Niebel, Garry Scarlett, Rajiv Shah, Guy Mollett, Kathy Li, Rory Gunson, Matthew Bashton, Carl Jones, Sara Kumziene-Summerhayes, Zoltan Molnar, Siona Silveira, Malte L Pinckert, Catherine Ludden, Angeliki Karamani, Leanne Kane, Brendan A I Payne, Alan McNally, Clare M. McCann, Holli Carden, Mohammad Raza, Alison E. Mather, Kate B. Cook, Amy Gaskin, David J. Williams, Shaun R. Seaman, Christopher I. Jones, Gilberto Betancor, Matthew T. G. Holden, Jennifier Liddle, Meera Unnikrishnan, Angie Green, Ben Taylor, Kelly Bicknell, Alexander J. Trotter, Emma Meader, Leanne M Kermack, Nathaniel Storey, Michelle Cronin, Sally Forrest, Sarah Jeremiah, Asad Zaidi, M Morgan, Alasdair MacLean, Thomas R. Connor, Johnathan M Evans, Rachael Stanley, Ryan P George, Nadine Holmes, Richard H. Myers, Christine Sambles, Bernardo Gutierrez, Jeffrey K. J. Cheng, Tim Wyatt, Natasha Jesudason, Lindsay Coupland, Monika Pusok, Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Jenifer Mason, Joshua Maksimovic, Russell Hope, Alison Holmes, David Simpson, Radoslaw Poplawski, Amelia Joseph, Erwan Acheson, James Bonfield, Mara K. N. Lawniczak, Sascha Ott, Lesley-Anne Williams, Jessica Lynch, Graham P. Taylor, Anita Kenyon, Elizabeth Wastenge, Megan Mayhew, Adhyana I K Mahanama, Stavroula F Louka, Chloe Bishop, Esther Robinson, Darren Smith, Anne M. Presanis, Matthew Carlile, Thomas D Stanton, Dennis Wang, Katerina Galai, Adam P Westhorpe, Flavia Flaviani, Michelle Wantoch, Max Whiteley, Yann Bourgeois, Matthew Gemmell, Mary Ramsay, A Lloyd, Simon Thelwall, Hannah C. Howson-Wells, Joseph G. Chappell, Steve Paterson, Gary Eltringham, Robert Impey, Siddharth Mookerjee, Steven Platt, Emma Swindells, Laura Letchford, Alex Alderton, Lee Graham, Safiah Afifi, David C. Lee, Cassie Breen, Melisa Louise Fenton, Benita Percival, Adrian W Signell, Tanya Golubchik, Ian B Vipond, Eleri Wilson-Davies, Angie Lackenby, Laura Atkinson, Sarojini Pandey, Nazreen F. Hadjirin, Michael A Chapman, Huw Gulliver, Joana Dias, Grant Hall, Antony D Hale, Hassan Hartman, Alp Aydin, Louise Smith, Ashok Dadrah, Johnny Debebe, Sarah Walsh, Stephanie W. Lo, Andrew Bosworth, Bridget Knight, Hannah E Bridgewater, Nadua Bayzid, Gemma L. Kay, Richard Gregory, Sally Kay, Ellena Brooks, Andre Charlett, Georgina M McManus, Riaz Jannoo, Victoria Blakey, Carol Scott, Rachel Nelson, Liz Ratcliffe, Gerry Tonkin-Hill, Verity Hill, Joanne D. Stockton, Danielle Leek, Steven Leonard, Stephanie Hutchings, Jonathan D. Moore, Kathryn Ann Harris, Sophie Jones, Venkat Sivaprakasam, Amy Plimmer, Tanzina Haque, Katherine L. Bellis, Khalil Abudahab, Dianne Irish-Tavares, Gaia Nebbia, Kathryn A Jackson, Stephen W Attwood, Daniel Mair, Sreenu Vattipally, Susanne Stonehouse, Ian Merrick, Lucille Rainbow, Mathew A. Beale, Angela Helen Beckett, Ember Hilvers, Thomas Helmer, Jenna Nichols, Giselda Bucca, Salman Goudarzi, Christopher Ruis, Surendra Parmar, Angela Cowell, Alberto C Cerda, Divya K. Shah, Judith Heaney, E. Thomson, Kyriaki Nomikou, Nicole Pacchiarini, Katherine L Harper, Fatima Downing, M. Estée Török, Michelle L Michelsen, Aaron R. Jeffries, Jennifer Collins, Christopher Williams, Katie F. Loveson, Steven Rudder, Theocharis Tsoleridis, Robert Davies, David Robertson, Katherine Smollett, Kathryn McCluggage, Liam Crawford, Inigo Martincorena, Charlotte Beaver, Oliver Megram, Karla Spellman, Sam Haldenby, Emma Betteridge, William D. Fuller, Will P. M. Rowe, Cherian Koshy, Tim E. A. Peto, Alison Cox, Natasha Johnson, Tanya Curran, Sharif Shaaban, Tamyo Mbisa, Cordelia Langford, Eric Witele, Andrew J. Page, Christoph Puethe, Nicola Reynolds, Paul W Bird, Louise Aigrain, Ronan Lyons, Amy Trebes, Sally Corden, Steven Rushton, Jack Cd Lee, Jane Greenaway, Hibo Asad, Amanda Bradley, Mohammed O Hassan-Ibrahim, Shane McCarthy, Fei Sang, Matthew Loose, Hannah Jones, Keith D. James, Chloe L Fisher, Chrystala Constantinidou, Alex G. Richter, Jane A. H. Masoli, Michael Gallagher, Vicki M. Fleming, Anna Price, Amy Ash, Michaela John, Alex Zarebski, Fenella D. Halstead, John Danesh, Christine Kitchen, Aminu S Jahun, Mark Whitehead, Julianne R Brown, Catherine Bresner, Marius Cotic, Stefanie V Lensing, Nick Levene, Louissa R Macfarlane-Smith, Wendy Hogsden, Cressida Auckland, Eleanor Drury, Richard Eccles, Jennifer Hart, Seema Nickbakhsh, Alisha Davies, David M. Aanensen, Shirelle Burton-Fanning, Ben Farr, Buddhini Samaraweera, Sarah Wyllie, Hannah Lowe, Richard J. Orton, Martin D. Curran, Carol Churcher, Karen Oliver, Elihu Aranday-Cortes, Wen Yew, Thanh Le-Viet, Matthew Parker, Katherine A Twohig, Shahjahan Miah, Samuel M. Nicholls, G MacIntyre-Cockett, Tranprit Saluja, Charlotte Nelson, Vicki Chalker, Roberto Amato, Ellen Higginson, Timothy M. Freeman, Christopher W Holmes, Yasmin Chaudhry, Elias Allara, Alec Birchley, Iraad Bronner, Emma Moles-Garcia, Angus I. Best, Anna L. Casey, Audrey Farbos, Nicholas W Machin, David W Eyre, Tim Boswell, Charlotte A Williams, Elen De Lacy, Matthew J. Bull, Matilde Mori, Carmen F. Manso, Peijun Zhang, Sahar Eldirdiri, Dimitris Grammatopoulos, Corin Yeats, Claudia Wierzbicki, David G Partridge, Kordo Saeed, Nichola Duckworth, David J. Studholme, Harmeet K Gill, Juan Ledesma, Thomas R. A. Davis, Sushmita Sridhar, Clive Graham, Husam Osman, Julian A. Hiscox, Helen Adams, Christopher Fearn, Fabrícia F. Nascimento, Ulf Schaefer, James W. Harrison, Andrew J. Nelson, Joshua Quick, Mohammad Tauqeer Alam, Liam Prestwood, Nikos Manesis, Julian Tang, Justin O'Grady, Sophia T Girgis, Louise Berry, Gemma Clark, Marina Escalera Zamudio, Karlie Fallon, Tim J Sloan, Joanne Watkins, Clare Pearson, Andrew D Beggs, Rachel Williams, Luke Bedford, Trevor Robinson, Nicholas M Redshaw, Richard Hopes, Mirko Menegazzo, Katherine Twohig, Gabrielle Vernet, Steven Liggett, Mariateresa de Cesare, Derrick W. Crook, Dominic P. Kwiatkowski, Mark Kristiansen, Miren Iturriza-Gomara, Christopher I. Moore, Claire Cormie, Olivia Boyd, Nikki Smith, Noel Craine, Kathleen A. Williamson, John Boyes, Sian Ellard, Cristina V. Ariani, Wendy Chatterton, David Bonsall, Kevin Lewis, David Jorgensen, Ian Harrison, Christopher Jackson, Martin P McHugh, Danni Weldon, Michael A. Quail, Amita Patel, Lily Geidelberg, Myra Hosmillo, Judith Breuer, Cariad Evans, Edward Barton, Trudy Workman, Derek Fairley, Vineet Patel, Daniel Bradshaw, Robin Manley, Scott Aj Thurston, John Sillitoe, Monique Andersson, Sharon J. Peacock, Jamie Lopez-Bernal, Thomas Thompson, Nabil-Fareed Alikhan, Ben Temperton, Paul Baker, Robin J Moll, Laura Gifford, Nicholas J. Loman, Jayna Raghwani, Jacqui Prieto, Andrew Hesketh, Oliver G. Pybus, Adela Alcolea-Medina, David Buck, Gregory R Young, Alistair C. Darby, Sónia Gonçalves, Aileen G. Rowan, Tabitha Mahungu, Nicholas Ellaby, Jon-Paul Keatley, Lily Tong, Robert Beer, Martyn Guest, Lisa J Levett, Ali R Awan, Iliana Georgana, Paul E Brown, Li Xu-McCrae, Stephen P. Kidd, Sara Rey, Shazaad Ahmad, Danielle C. Groves, Tetyana I. Vasylyeva, David F. Bibby, Nathan Moore, Fiona Ashcroft, Igor Starinskij, Hannah Paul, Claire McMurray, Michael Spencer Chapman, Carlos Balcazar, Joanna Warwick-Dugdale, Pinglawathee Madona, Edith Vamos, Lesley Shirley, Kate Templeton, Luke Foulser, Igor Siveroni, Ewan M. Harrison, Sian Morgan, Diana Rajan, S Taylor, Laia Fina, Naomi Park, Sarah J. O'Brien, Alessandro M Carabelli, Angela Marchbank, Sunando Roy, Leonardo de Oliveira Martins, Steve Palmer, Jonathan Hubb, Alexander J Keeley, Francesc Coll, Malorie Perry, Paul J. Parsons, Anthony Underwood, Patawee Asamaphan, William L Hamilton, Tommy Nyberg, Sophie Palmer, Amanda Symmonds, Anoop Chauhan, Robert Johnson, Christopher J. R. Illingworth, James Shepherd, Wendy Smith, Rich Livett, Rachel Blacow, Margaret Hughes, Jeremy Mirza, Joanne Watts, Jonathan D. Edgeworth, Sarah François, Sue Edwards, Adrienn Angyal, Thomas N. Williams, Marta Gallis, Lauren Gilbert, Paul Randell, Kate Johnson, Eileen Gallagher, Nick Cortes, Yusri Taha, Leah Ensell, Emanuela Pelosi, Stefan Rooke, Michelle Lister, Ana da Silva Filipe, Cassandra S Malone, Themoula Charalampous, Benjamin B Lindsey, Natalie Groves, Colin Smith, Ross J Harris, Rebekah E Wilson, Stephen Bonner, Richard Stark, Sharon Campbell, Nicola Sheriff, Helen L Lowe, Rachel Jones, Ben Warne, Rose K Davidson, Declan Bradley, Ian Johnston, Jeffrey C. Barrett, Joshua B Singer, Shirin Aliabadi, Andrew Whitwham, Patrick McClure, Samuel Robson, Sharon Glaysher, Robert J. Munn, Emma L. Wise, Laura Baxter, Kim S Smith, Catherine Moore, Bree Gatica-Wilcox, Alice Broos, Sarah Essex, David Baker, Manjinder Khakh, Dorota Jamrozy, Rachel Tucker, Ian Goodfellow, S.E. Moses, Nicola Cumley, Robin Howe, Meera Chand, James I. Price, Marina Gourtovaia, Debra Padgett, Jaime Tovar-Corona, Stephen L. Michell, Matthew J. Dorman, Lizzie Meadows, David Heyburn, Iona Willingham, Rocio Martinez Nunez, Grace Taylor-Joyce, Claire M Bewshea, Anita Justice, Simon Cottrell, Rebecca C H Brown, Jamie Young, Gavin Dabrera, Matthew Wyles, Stephen Carmichael, Lisa Berry, Frances Bolt, Andrew Rambaut, Samir Dervisevic, Erik M. Volz, Rahul Batra, Caoimhe McKerr, Samantha McGuigan, Katie Jones, Mailis Maes, Rebecca Dewar, Mary Sinnathamby, Joel Southgate, and Lynn Monaghan

Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty, business.industry, Proportional hazards model, Public health, Hazard ratio, Attendance, C500, Vaccination, Infectious Diseases, Relative risk, Internal medicine, Cohort, medicine, business, Cohort study
Abstract

Background: \ud The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes.\ud \ud Methods: \ud This cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status.\ud \ud Findings: \ud Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low.\ud \ud Interpretation: \ud This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant.\ud \ud Funding: \ud Medical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research.

Published
2022

3. Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

Author

Mohammad Raza, Alison E. Mather, Gilberto Betancor, Ian Merrick, Ben Taylor, Mathew A. Beale, Helen Ward, Samir Dervisevic, Michelle Cronin, Aaron R. Jeffries, Louise Smith, Steven Rudder, Mara K. N. Lawniczak, Sascha Ott, Ashok Dadrah, Luke Bedford, Gabrielle Vernet, Erik M. Volz, Rahul Batra, Johnny Debebe, Caoimhe McKerr, Samantha McGuigan, Oliver Megram, Katie Jones, Mailis Maes, Rebecca Dewar, Emma Swindells, Robert E. Johnson, Myra Hosmillo, Wen C Yew, Vineet Patel, Scott Aj Thurston, Matthew Bashton, Luke B Snell, Lynn Monaghan, David Buck, Gregory R Young, Garren Scott, Louis du Plessis, Sara Kumziene-Summerhayes, David M. Aanensen, Carl Jones, Nadine Holmes, Bernardo Gutierrez, Elizabeth Wastenge, Stavroula F Louka, Dennis Wang, Richard I. Gregory, M. Estée Török, Alistair C. Darby, Ulf Schaefer, Marc Niebel, David Robertson, E. Thomson, Carol Churcher, Patrick C McClure, Scott Elliott, Sarah Jeremiah, Katerina Galai, Matthew W. Loose, Megan Mayhew, Adhyana I K Mahanama, Angeliki Karamani, Naomi R Park, David J. Williams, Lance Turtle, Lucy R. Frost, Alicia Thornton, Jennifier Liddle, M Morgan, Tim Wyatt, Paul W Bird, Chloe Bishop, Esther Robinson, Alasdair MacLean, Inigo Martincorena, Bridget A. Knight, Emma Meader, Thomas R. Connor, Hermione J. Webster, Peter Muir, Sarah Walsh, Stephanie W. Lo, Andrew Bosworth, Hannah E Bridgewater, David Simpson, Radoslaw Poplawski, Angus I. Best, David Baker, Laura Letchford, Cassie Breen, Yann Bourgeois, Matthew Gemmell, Nikki Smith, Alison Holmes, Iliana Georgana, Christophe Fraser, Natasha Jesudason, Johnathan M Evans, Rachael Stanley, Lesley-Anne Williams, Jessica Lynch, Hannah Lowe, Eleri Wilson-Davies, Paul A. Baker, Alex Makunin, James Bonfield, Helen Adams, Christopher Fearn, Peter J. Diggle, Harry D Wilson, Carmen F. Manso, Nichola Duckworth, D Haw, Anna L. Casey, Audrey Farbos, Sam Haldenby, Vicki Chalker, Roberto Amato, Elen De Lacy, Ben Farr, Eric Witele, Buddhini Samaraweera, G MacIntyre-Cockett, Husam Osman, Jane Greenaway, Justin O'Grady, Sally Forrest, Andrew Nelson, Monika Pusok, A Lloyd, Edward Barton, James W. Harrison, Sophie Palmer, Amanda Symmonds, James Shepherd, Nazreen F. Hadjirin, Stephen L. Michell, Mohammed O Hassan-Ibrahim, Fiona Ashcroft, Daniel Mair, Richard H. Myers, Dianne Irish-Tavares, Hannah C. Howson-Wells, Jacqui Prieto, Christine Sambles, Andrew Hesketh, Alp Aydin, Sónia Gonçalves, Tabitha Mahungu, Tanzina Haque, Nicholas Ellaby, Karen Oliver, Hannah Paul, Joanne Watts, Claire McMurray, Lisa J Levett, Darren Smith, Simon Cottrell, Joanna Warwick-Dugdale, Pinglawathee Madona, Matthew J. Dorman, Lizzie Meadows, Ali R Awan, Leanne M Kermack, Jennifer Hart, Angie Lackenby, Carol Scott, Michael Spencer Chapman, Lucille Rainbow, Kyriaki Nomikou, Julianne R Brown, Juan Ledesma, Adam P Westhorpe, Giri Shankar, Karlie Fallon, Tim J Sloan, Joanne Watkins, Robert Impey, Sue Edwards, Rebecca C H Brown, Robin J Moll, Karla Spellman, Laura Gifford, Jamie Young, Adrienn Angyal, Graham Phillip Taylor, Robin Manley, Gavin Dabrera, Michelle Wantoch, Rachel Williams, David Heyburn, Mirko Menegazzo, Derrick W. Crook, Gaia Nebbia, Rachel Nelson, Elaine O'Toole, Luke Foulser, Katherine L Harper, Fatima Downing, Hassan Hartman, Nathan Moore, Gemma L. Kay, Matthew Wyles, Thanh Le-Viet, Edith Vamos, John Sillitoe, Lesley Shirley, Nicholas J. Loman, Iona Willingham, Elihu Aranday-Cortes, Ian B Vipond, Jeremy Mirza, Alberto C Cerda, Michelle L Michelsen, Steven Riley, Alison Cox, Igor Siveroni, Nadua Bayzid, Shavanthi Rajatileka, Giselda Bucca, Benjamin J Cogger, Tim Boswell, Matthew J. Bull, Stephen Carmichael, Lisa Berry, Frances Bolt, Kylie E. C. Ainslie, Martyn Guest, Sarojini Pandey, Katherine L. Bellis, Shane A. McCarthy, Christopher Ruis, Fei Sang, David Bonsall, Danni Weldon, Alex Alderton, Lee Graham, Amy Trebes, Sally Corden, Adrian W Signell, Tanya Golubchik, Huw Gulliver, Rocio Martinez Nunez, Dinesh Aggarwal, Tanya Curran, Jonathan K. Ball, Sharif Shaaban, Paul Randell, Jillian Durham, Alec Birchley, Matilde Mori, Joana Dias, Katherine A Twohig, Grant Hall, Antony D Hale, Alan McNally, Jonathan D. Edgeworth, Safiah Afifi, Andrew Rambaut, Katherine Smollett, David N. Lee, Tamyo Mbisa, Shahjahan Miah, Steven Rushton, Grace Taylor-Joyce, Hannah M Pymont, Chloe L Fisher, Cordelia Langford, Alex G. Richter, Jane A. H. Masoli, Michael Gallagher, Vicki M. Fleming, Kathleen A. Williamson, Anna Price, Holli Carden, Khalil Abudahab, Joanne D. Stockton, Meera Unnikrishnan, Jennifer Collins, Emma Moles-Garcia, Michaela John, Christine Kitchen, Tranprit Saluja, Ian Harrison, Lily Tong, Thomas G. Thompson, Thomas Helmer, Amita Patel, Siona Silveira, Deborah Ashby, Claire M Bewshea, Anita Justice, Brendan A I Payne, Alexander J. Trotter, Nikos Manesis, Katie F. Loveson, Cristina V. Ariani, Wendy Chatterton, Robert J. Munn, Julian A. Hiscox, Robert Beer, Judith Breuer, Caroline E. Walters, Liam Crawford, Ara Darzi, Will P. M. Rowe, Cariad Evans, Matthew Parker, Tammy V Merrill, Louise Aigrain, Joshua Quick, Leigh M Jackson, Samuel M. Nicholls, Jonathan W. Moore, John A Hartley, Graham P. Taylor, Cherian Koshy, Shirelle Burton-Fanning, Sheila Waugh, Catherine Moore, Danielle C. Groves, Peijun Zhang, Sahar Eldirdiri, Derek Fairley, Tim E. A. Peto, Jack Cd Lee, Sharon Glaysher, Liam Prestwood, Hannah Dent, Anita Kenyon, Stephen P. Kidd, Nick Levene, Igor Starinskij, Joseph G. Chappell, Steve Paterson, Gary Eltringham, Laia Fina, Angela Marchbank, Daniel Bradshaw, Marina Escalera Zamudio, Scott Goodwin, Andrew D Beggs, Seema Nickbakhsh, Trevor Robinson, Christina Atchison, David K. Jackson, Kathy Li, Rory Gunson, Sunando Roy, Graham S Cooke, Steven Liggett, Yasmin Chaudhry, Anoop Chauhan, Ben Temperton, Mariateresa de Cesare, Paul E Brown, Li Xu-McCrae, Martin P McHugh, Catherine Ludden, Wendy Smith, Danielle Leek, Divya K. Shah, Judith Heaney, Dominic P. Kwiatkowski, Kate M. Johnson, Robin Howe, Malorie Perry, Tetyana I. Vasylyeva, David F. Bibby, Haowei Wang, Steve Palmer, Nicholas W Machin, Charlotte A Williams, Bree Gatica-Wilcox, Angie Green, John A. Todd, Paul Elliott, Noel Craine, Jeffrey K. J. Cheng, Kate Templeton, Jonathan Hubb, Joshua Maksimovic, Christl A. Donnelly, Monique Andersson, Christopher Holmes, Dimitris Grammatopoulos, Christopher B. Williams, David G Partridge, Aminu S Jahun, Alexander Adams, Marius Cotic, Sarah Essex, Christopher J. Moore, Trudy Workman, Nicola Sheriff, Helen L Lowe, Ewan M. Harrison, Dorota Jamrozy, Rachel Jones, Ellen Higginson, Erwan Acheson, Christopher R. Jones, Oliver G. Pybus, Francesc Coll, Sian Morgan, Paul J. Parsons, Patawee Asamaphan, Veena Raviprakash, Andrew R. Bassett, Declan Bradley, Laura Atkinson, Anthony Underwood, Graciela Sluga, Sally Kay, Ellena Brooks, Oliver Eales, Andrew Whitwham, Surendra Parmar, Angela Cowell, Nicole Pacchiarini, Theocharis Tsoleridis, Jason Coombes, Robert Davies, Flavia Flaviani, Benita Percival, Jenna Nichols, Natasha M. Johnson, Salman Goudarzi, Hibo Asad, Amanda Bradley, Hannah Jones, Chrystala Constantinidou, Georgina M McManus, Minal Patel, Steven Leonard, Rebecca Williams Bmbs, Andrew J. Page, Christoph Puethe, Nicola Reynolds, Amy Ash, John Danesh, Corin Yeats, Claudia Wierzbicki, Kordo Saeed, John Boyes, Michael A. Quail, Sharon J. Peacock, Nabil-Fareed Alikhan, Jon-Paul Keatley, Claudio Fronterre, Garry Scarlett, James McKenna, Thushan I de Silva, Malte L Pinckert, Kate B. Cook, Amy Gaskin, Rajiv Shah, Matthew T. G. Holden, Sophie J Prosolek, Nathaniel Storey, Ryan P George, Lindsay Coupland, Jenifer Mason, Matthew Carlile, Thomas D Stanton, Guy Mollett, Siddharth Mookerjee, Mary Ramsay, Steven Platt, Stephen W Attwood, Susanne Stonehouse, Sophie Jones, Venkat Sivaprakasam, Amy Plimmer, Mark Whitehead, Catherine Bresner, Stefanie V Lensing, Louissa R Macfarlane-Smith, Colin P. Smith, Wendy Hogsden, Charlotte Nelson, Ian Johnston, Jeffrey C. Barrett, Joshua B Singer, Samuel Robson, Zoltán Molnár, Emma L. Wise, Sian Ellard, Kim S Smith, Alice Broos, Manjinder Khakh, Kathryn A Jackson, Claire Cormie, Rachel Tucker, Ian Goodfellow, S.E. Moses, Nicola Cumley, Meera Chand, Debra Padgett, Cassandra S Malone, James V. Price, Themoula Charalampous, Ronan A Lyons, Natalie Groves, Stefan Rooke, Rebekah E Wilson, Stephen Bonner, Richard Stark, Sharon Campbell, Michelle Lister, Carlos Balcazar, Ana da Silva Filipe, Ben Warne, Thomas N. Williams, Marta Gallis, Lauren Gilbert, Rose K Davidson, Angela Helen Beckett, Ember Hilvers, Kathryn McCluggage, Eileen Gallagher, Charlotte Beaver, Nick Cortes, Alisha Davies, Yusri Taha, Leah Ensell, Emanuela Pelosi, Elias Allara, Cressida Auckland, Eleanor Drury, Richard Eccles, Adela Alcolea-Medina, William L Hamilton, Rich Livett, Rachel Blacow, Margaret Hughes, Sarah François, Melisa Louise Fenton, Liz Ratcliffe, Verity Hill, Stephanie Hutchings, Kathryn Ann Harris, Emma Betteridge, William D. Fuller, Sophia T Girgis, Louise Berry, Gemma Clark, Nicholas M Redshaw, Richard Hopes, Leonardo de Oliveira Martins, Alexander J Keeley, Beth Blane, Wendy S. Barclay, Victoria Wright, Anita Lucaci, Luke R. Green, Fenella D. Halstead, Sarah Wyllie, Iraad F. Bronner, Áine O'Toole, Ravi Gupta, Leanne Kane, Clare M. McCann, Michael R Chapman, David W Eyre, Kelly Bicknell, Aileen G. Rowan, Sara Rey, Shazaad Ahmad, Diana Rajan, S Taylor, Sarah J. O'Brien, Alessandro M Carabelli, Amelia Joseph, Max Whiteley, Riaz Jannoo, Victoria Blakey, Martin D. Curran, David J. Studholme, Harmeet K Gill, Thomas R. A. Davis, Sushmita Sridhar, Clive Graham, Julian Tang, Clare Pearson, Mark Kristiansen, Miren Iturriza-Gomara, National Institute for Health Research, and UK Research and Innovation

Subjects
Delta, Adult, Male, 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, COVID-19 Vaccines, Vaccination Coverage, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Adolescent, General Science & Technology, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Vaccine Efficacy, Biology, Young Adult, Exponential growth, Ethnicity, Prevalence, Humans, Child, Aged, Family Characteristics, Multidisciplinary, High prevalence, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium11‡, SARS-CoV-2, Age Factors, COVID-19, Middle Aged, Virology, Hospitalization, England, Socioeconomic Factors, COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing, Child, Preschool, Female, Self Report
Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries as a result of the Delta variant. We assessed reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction swab positivity in the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission–1 (REACT-1) study in England. During June and July 2021, we observed sustained exponential growth with an average doubling time of 25 days, driven by complete replacement of the Alpha variant by Delta and by high prevalence at younger, less-vaccinated ages. Prevalence among unvaccinated people [1.21% (95% credible interval 1.03%, 1.41%)] was three times that among double-vaccinated people [0.40% (95% credible interval 0.34%, 0.48%)]. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.

Published
2021

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