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Background: Infection with Onchocerca volvulus is associated with the prevalence of severe visual impairment and blindness. However, longitudinal studies of the incidence of blindness caused by onchocerciasis are scarce., Methods: The relationship, at the individual level, between infection with O. volvulus microfilariae and bilateral blindness was examined, by use of data collected, during the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in western Africa (OCP), from 2315 villages in 11 countries. The data were analyzed by Poisson maximum-likelihood techniques with adjustment for overdispersion., Results: A total of 297,756 persons were eligible for follow-up in the cohort, and, during 1971-2001, these persons accumulated 367,788 person-years of follow-up without blindness. A total of 673 bilateral cases of blindness occurred during this period; 29.7% were caused by onchocerciasis. After ivermectin therapy was introduced (during 1988-2001), only 19.6% of cases were caused by onchocerciasis. The incidence of blindness was significantly and positively associated with increasing microfilarial burden (P<.001). Overall, female subjects had an ~40% lower risk of becoming blind than did male subjects (P<.001). After an initially high incidence of blindness at the beginning of the OCP, the rate of blindness from causes other than onchocerciasis remained approximately constant during follow-up., Conclusions: We demonstrate, in a comprehensive data set and in both sexes, a direct relationship between microfilarial load and the incidence of blindness.

Most parasites have complex life cycles; and mathematical models can help in targeting interventions and predicting disease-control efforts. For actual applications, quantification and validation of models is a key issue. We illustrate the process of validation by presenting a (re)analysis of fly-feeding experiments carried out by the Onchocerciasis (river blindness) Control Programme (OCP/WHO) in West Africa, with the objective to validate ONCHOSIM, an onchocerciasis transmission model. In these experiments flies were fed on human patients and dissected to count the number of microfilariae they had ingested. To assess microfilarial skin densities, skin snips (biopsies) were taken and examined. Originally, the resulting curve was interpreted as showing saturation and considered the main regulating (density-dependent) mechanism of onchocerciasis transmission in the model. Taking into account measurement errors in the skin microfilarial density of human subjects (on whom the flies were fed) we now conclude that the relationship is essentially linear. This prompts us to requantify ONCHOSIM. Possible alternative density-dependent mechanisms are discussed.

Objective: To elucidate the conditions in which mass treatment with ivermectin reduces the transmission of Onchocerca volvulus sufficiently to eliminate infection from an African community., Methods: ONCHOSIM, a microsimulation model for onchocerciasis transmission, was used to explore the implications of different treatment intervals, coverage levels and precontrol endemicities for the likelihood of elimination., Findings: Simulations suggested that control strategies based exclusively on ivermectin mass treatments could eliminate onchocerciasis. The duration of treatment required to eliminate infection depended heavily on the treatment programme and precontrol endemicity. In areas with medium to high levels of infection, annual mass treatments with 65% coverage for at least 25 years were necessary. Model predictions suggested that durations exceeding 35 years would be required if there were much heterogeneity in exposure to vector bites and, consequently, wide individual variation in microfilaria counts. If the treatment interval were reduced from 12 to 6 months the time for completion of the programme could be more than halved and elimination could be accomplished in areas of hyperendemicity, provided that the effects of each treatment would be the same as with annual treatments. However, it was doubtful whether high coverage levels could be sustained long enough to achieve worldwide eradication., Conclusion: Elimination of onchocerciasis from most endemic foci in Africa appears to be possible. However, the requirements in terms of duration, coverage, and frequency of treatment may be prohibitive in highly endemic areas.

From 1976 through 1989, weekly aerial spraying operations against blackflies were carried out along the rivers of a wide savanna area of West Africa (approximately 700,000 km(2)) where onchocerciasis was hyperendemic. The level of endemicity began to decrease significantly after 4 years of vector control and became very low in 1989. This situation has been maintained without any vector control activity or chemotherapy, and no incidence of any new cases has been detected. An ophthalmological study carried out in 2000 has confirmed these good results, showing only cicatricial ocular lesions in the examined population. These results led to the conclusion that 14 years of vector control may achieve long-term elimination of onchocerciasis, even in the absence of chemotherapy, provided that the treated areas are not subjected to any contamination by exogenous parasites carried in infected humans or flies.

In the extension areas of the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa, aerial larviciding is supplemented with annual ivermectin treatment, mainly to achieve better control of morbidity. The purpose of this study is to determine whether and to what extent the addition of annual ivermectin treatment permits earlier cessation of vector control than originally recommended. The effectiveness of combined ivermectin distribution and vector control was assessed using an epidemiological model. Model predictions suggest that, dependent on the pre-control endemicity of the area and the proportion of persons treated during each ivermectin round, large-scale annual treatment permits a considerable reduction in the duration of vector control. Taking into account uncertainty about the efficacy of ivermectin, our results indicate that, provided treatment coverage is at least 65% and there is no importation of infection from elsewhere, 12 years of combined control will be sufficient to reduce the risk of recrudescence to below 1% in even the most afflicted areas.

Ivermectin is an effective drug for the treatment of human onchocerciasis, a disease caused by the parasitic filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus. When humans are treated, the microfilariae normally found in the skin are rapidly and very nearly completely eliminated. Nonetheless, after a delay, microfilariae gradually reappear in the skin. This study is concerned with the causes of this delay. Hypotheses are tested by comparing the results of model calculations with skin microfilaria counts collected from 114 patients during a trial of five annual treatments in the focus area of Asubende, Ghana. The results obtained strongly suggest that annual treatment with ivermectin causes an irreversible decline in microfilariae production of approximately 30%/treatment. This result has important implications for public health strategies designed to eliminate onchocerciasis as a significant health hazard.

As part of the WHO Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP), the attack phase of operations in the Niger basin in Guinea began in 1989 with the simultaneous use of ivermectin and vector control. Larvicide applications coupled with annual large-scale ivermectin distribution have greatly reduced blackfly infectivity (by 78.8% for the number of infective larvae per 1000 parous flies). The combination of vector control and ivermectin has permitted excellent control of transmission. In the original OCP area, it took 6-8 years of vector control alone to obtain an equivalent decrease in blackfly infectivity. For the same number of flies caught, transmission was much higher in areas where ivermectin had not been distributed. The combined use of ivermectin and vector control has opened up new prospects for carrying out OCP operations with, notably, the possibility of reducing larviciding operations.

Onchocerciasis, or river blindness, results from infection with Onchocerca volvulus. The parasite is endemic to West Africa, in both rain forest and savanna bioclimes. Several lines of evidence suggest that different strains of the parasite exist in the rain forest and savanna. Furthermore, epidemiologic evidence indicates that ocular onchocerciasis is most severe in savanna regions. This has led to the hypothesis that there is a strain association with ocular pathology. To test this hypothesis, parasites from villages in which severe and mild onchocerciasis were endemic were classified with two strain-specific DNA probes. A strong correlation (P less than .001) was found between disease severity and probe recognition, supporting the hypothesis that pathogenicity is strain related. The results suggest that pFS-1 and pSS-1BT may be used to predict the pathogenic potential of parasite populations throughout much of West Africa.

Using a computer simulation study, we have investigated the risk and dynamics of onchocerciasis recrudescence after stopping vector control, in order to provide guidelines for operational decision-making in the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP). For this purpose, we used the microsimulation model ONCHOSIM to predict for periods of 9-15 years of vector control the ensuing risk and dynamics of recrudescence in an onchocerciasis focus. The model was quantified and validated using OCP evaluation and field research data. A range of plausible values was determined for important confounding parameters, i.e., vector biting rate, variation in exposure between individuals, parasite life span, and the relation between skin microfilarial load and vector infection. Different model quantifications were used in order to take account of the possible confounding effect of these parameters on the prediction of recrudescence. In the absence of immigration of infected humans or invasion by infected flies, the model predicts that 14 years of full-scale vector control are required to reduce the risk of recrudescence to less than 1%. The risk depends, in particular, on the vector biting rate, and this has implications for the planning of post-larviciding surveillance. Recrudescence will be a relatively slow process, and its rate will depend on the duration of vector control. Even if vector control were stopped too early, i.e., after 12-13 years in a highly endemic area, it would take more than 20 years before the intensity of infection in the community would reach levels of public health importance.

Eight community trials were carried out by the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa to determine the safety of the new microfilaricide ivermectin during large-scale treatment of onchocerciasis. The trial areas were located in eight different countries and varied greatly in endemicity level; a total of 50,929 persons were treated and monitored for 72 hours. Overall treatment coverage was 60% of the census population, the main reasons for non-treatment being the exclusion criteria. Of those treated, 9% reported with adverse reactions, 2.4% with moderate reactions, and 0.24% with severe reactions. Most reactions were reported during the first day of follow-up, the most frequent severe reaction being severe symptomatic postural hypotension (in 49 cases). Three cases of severe dyspnoea were life-threatening but their relationship with ivermectin treatment is uncertain. The incidence of adverse reactions was directly related to skin microfilarial load and was highest in the foci with the highest endemicity levels. Treatment resulted in 98% reductions in mean microfilarial loads at all endemicity levels. The benefit of treatment largely compensated for the discomfort due to adverse reactions, which were all transient and managed successfully. Ivermectin thus appears to be sufficiently safe for large-scale treatment but monitoring by resident nurses for at least 36 hours is recommended.