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4. Hunting the unobservables for optimal social security: a general equilibrium approach

Author

Caliendo, Frank N. and Gahramanov, Emin

Subjects
Social security -- Economic aspects, Permanent income -- Research, Banking, finance and accounting industries, Government
Abstract

A study was conducted to examine the optimal size of a pay-as-you-go social security program for an economy composed of permanent income and hand-to-mouth consumers. This issue is studied in a life-cycle general equilibrium model. The welfare consequences of social security are also analyzed.

Published
2009

7. Social Security and Saving: An Update.

Author

Slavov, Sita, Gorry, Devon, Gorry, Aspen, and Caliendo, Frank N.

Subjects
SOCIAL security, SAVINGS, WAGES, PREDICTION models, EMPIRICAL research
Abstract

Typical neoclassical life-cycle models predict that Social Security has a large and negative effect on private savings. We review this theoretical literature by constructing a model where individuals face uninsurable longevity risk and differ by wage earnings, while Social Security provides benefits as a life annuity with higher replacement rates for the poor. We use the model to generate numerical examples that confirm the standard result. Using several benefit and tax changes from the 1970s and 1980s as natural experiments, we investigate the empirical relationship between Social Security and private savings and find little evidence to support the predictions from the theoretical model. We explore possible reasons for the lack of strong empirical findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
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12. Is social security behind the collapse of personal saving?

Author

Caliendo, Frank N.

Subjects
Einkommenshypothese, Sparen, NIPA personal saving rate, life-cycle permanent-income model, ddc:330, D91, Sozialversicherungsbeitrag, H55, Allgemeines Gleichgewicht, social security, general equilibrium calibration, E21
Abstract

This paper considers the quantitative role of growth in the size of the social security program in contributing to the collapse of personal saving in the U.S. over the last few decades. Using a calibrated, general equilibrium life-cycle model this paper shows that social security may not be to blame. Specifically, the model predicts that a 50-percent increase in the social security tax rate (as in the U.S. over the last half century) produces a modest decline in the personal saving rate from 10 percent down to 9.6 percent. This result runs counter to some popular opinion.

Published
2009

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