Search

During the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare systems worldwide faced severe strain. This study, utilizing wastewater virus surveillance, identified that periodic spontaneous avoidance behaviors significantly impacted infectious disease transmission during rapid and intense outbreaks. To incorporate these behaviors into disease transmission analysis, we introduced the Su-SEIQR model and validated it using COVID-19 wastewater data from Beijing and Hong Kong. The results demonstrated that the Su-SEIQR model accurately reflected trends in susceptible populations and confirmed cases during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the role of spontaneous collective avoidance behaviors in generating periodic fluctuations. These fluctuations helped reduce infection peaks, thereby alleviating pressure on healthcare systems. However, the effect of these spontaneous behaviors on mitigating healthcare overload was limited. Consequently, we incorporated healthcare capacity constraints into the model, adjusting parameters to further guide population behaviors during the pandemic, aiming to keep the outbreak within manageable limits and reduce strain on healthcare resources. This study provides robust support for the development of environmental and public health policies during pandemics by constructing an innovative transmission model, which effectively prevents healthcare overload. Additionally, this approach can be applied to managing future outbreaks of unknown viruses or 'Disease X'.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on the global health system and economic structure. Although the implementation of lockdown measures achieved notable success in curbing the spread of the pandemic, it concurrently incurred substantial socioeconomic costs., Objective: The objective of this study was to delineate an equilibrium between the economic losses and health benefits of lockdown measures, with the aim of identifying the optimal boundary conditions for implementing these measures at various pandemic phases., Methods: This study used a model to estimate the half-lives of the observed case fatality rates of different strains. It was based on global infection and death data collected by the World Health Organization and strain sequence time series data provided by Nextstrain. The connection between the health benefits and economic losses brought by lockdown measures was established through the calculation of disability-adjusted life years. Taking China's city lockdowns as an example, this study determined the cost-benefit boundary of various lockdown measures during the evolution of COVID-19., Results: The study reveals a direct proportionality between economic losses due to lockdowns and the observed case fatality rates of virus strains, a relationship that holds true irrespective of population size or per capita economic output. As SARS-CoV-2 strains evolve and population immunity shifts, there has been a notable decrease in the observed case fatality rate over time, exhibiting a half-life of roughly 8 months. This decline in fatality rates may offset the health benefits of maintaining unchanged lockdown measures, given that the resultant economic losses might exceed the health benefits., Conclusions: The initial enforcement of lockdown in Wuhan led to significant health benefits. However, with the decline in the observed case fatality rate of the virus strains, the economic losses increasingly outweighed the health benefits. Consequently, it is essential to consistently refine and enhance lockdown strategies in accordance with the evolving fatality and infection rates of different virus strains, thereby optimizing outcomes in anticipation of future pandemics., (©Wenxiu Chen, Bin Zhang, Chen Wang, Wei An, Shashika Kumudumali Guruge, Ho-kwong Chui, Min Yang. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 07.06.2024.)

Background: Sewage surveillance, by detecting SARS-CoV-2 virus circulation at the community level, has the potential to supplement individual surveillance for COVID-19. However, to date, there have been no reports about the large-scale implementation and validation of sewage surveillance for public health action., Objective: Here, we developed a standardized approach for SARS-CoV-2 detection in sewage and applied it prospectively to supplement public health interventions., Methods: We analyzed 1,169 sewage samples collected at 492 sites from December 2020 to March 2021. Forty-seven of 492 sites tested positive, 44 (94%) of them had traceable sources of viral signals in the corresponding sewershed, either from previously unsuspected but subsequently confirmed patients or recently convalescent patients or from both patient groups., Results: Sewage surveillance had a sensitivity of 54%, a specificity of 95%, a positive predictive value of 53%, and a negative predictive value of 95% for identifying a previously unsuspected patient within a sewershed. Sewage surveillance in Hong Kong provided a basis for the statutory public health action to detect silent COVID-19 transmission., Discussion: Considering the epidemiological data together with the sewage testing results, compulsory testing was conducted for individual residents at 27 positive sewage sites and uncovered total of 62 previously unsuspected patients, demonstrating the value of sewage surveillance in uncovering previously unsuspected patients in the community. Our study suggests that sewage surveillance could be a powerful management tool for the control of COVID-19. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9966.

We describe a novel method of fungal slide preparation named "agar block smear preparation." A total of 510 agar block smears of 25 fungal strains obtained from culture collections, 90 QC fungal strains, and 82 clinical fungal strains from our clinical microbiology laboratory, which included a total of 137 species of yeasts, molds, and thermal dimorphic fungi, were prepared and examined. In contrast to adhesive tape preparation, agar block smears preserved the native fungal structures, such as intact conidiophores of Aspergillus species and arrangements of conidia in Scopulariopsis brevicaulis. Furthermore, agar block smears allowed examination of fungal structures embedded in the agar, such as the ascomata with ascomal hairs in Chaetomium funicola; pycnidium of Phoma glomerata; the intercalary ovoidal chlamydospores arranged in chains of Fusarium dimerum; and the lateral, spherical chlamydospores arranged in pairs of Fusarium solani. After 1 year of storage, morphological integrity was found to have been maintained in 459 (90%) of the 510 agar block smears. After 3 years of storage, morphological integrity was found to have been maintained in 72 (71%) of the 102 smears prepared in 2006. Agar block smear preparation preserves the native fungal structures and allows long-term storage and examination of fungal structures embedded in the agar, hence overcoming the major drawbacks of adhesive tape preparation. The major roles of agar block smear should be diagnosis for difficult cases, accurate identification of fungal species for clinical management of patients and epidemiological studies, and long-term storage for transportation of slides and education purposes.