Search

The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106 km2, compared to 6.46×106 km2 for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×106 km2 for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; and LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally, we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations and simulations for future climate with moderate (1 % yr−1) CO2 increase show a relationship between LIG sea ice and sea ice simulated under CO2 increase around the years of doubling CO2. The LIG may therefore yield insight into likely 21st century Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.

Motivated by the need to predict how the Arctic atmosphere will change in a warming world, this article summarizes recent advances made by the research consortium NETCARE (Network on Climate and Aerosols: Addressing Key Uncertainties in Remote Canadian Environments) that contribute to our fundamental understanding of Arctic aerosol particles as they relate to climate forcing. The overall goal of NETCARE research has been to use an interdisciplinary approach encompassing extensive field observations and a range of chemical transport, earth system, and biogeochemical models. Several major findings and advances have emerged from NETCARE since its formation in 2013. (1) Unexpectedly high summertime dimethyl sulfide (DMS) levels were identified in ocean water (up to 75 nM) and the overlying atmosphere (up to 1 ppbv) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Furthermore, melt ponds, which are widely prevalent, were identified as an important DMS source (with DMS concentrations of up to 6 nM and a potential contribution to atmospheric DMS of 20 % in the study area). (2) Evidence of widespread particle nucleation and growth in the marine boundary layer was found in the CAA in the summertime, with these events observed on 41 % of days in a 2016 cruise. As well, at Alert, Nunavut, particles that are newly formed and grown under conditions of minimal anthropogenic influence during the months of July and August are estimated to contribute 20 % to 80 % of the 30–50 nm particle number density. DMS-oxidation-driven nucleation is facilitated by the presence of atmospheric ammonia arising from seabird-colony emissions, and potentially also from coastal regions, tundra, and biomass burning. Via accumulation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), a significant fraction of the new particles grow to sizes that are active in cloud droplet formation. Although the gaseous precursors to Arctic marine SOA remain poorly defined, the measured levels of common continental SOA precursors (isoprene and monoterpenes) were low, whereas elevated mixing ratios of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) were inferred to arise via processes involving the sea surface microlayer. (3) The variability in the vertical distribution of black carbon (BC) under both springtime Arctic haze and more pristine summertime aerosol conditions was observed. Measured particle size distributions and mixing states were used to constrain, for the first time, calculations of aerosol–climate interactions under Arctic conditions. Aircraft- and ground-based measurements were used to better establish the BC source regions that supply the Arctic via long-range transport mechanisms, with evidence for a dominant springtime contribution from eastern and southern Asia to the middle troposphere, and a major contribution from northern Asia to the surface. (4) Measurements of ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the Arctic indicate that a major source of these particles is mineral dust, likely derived from local sources in the summer and long-range transport in the spring. In addition, INPs are abundant in the sea surface microlayer in the Arctic, and possibly play a role in ice nucleation in the atmosphere when mineral dust concentrations are low. (5) Amongst multiple aerosol components, BC was observed to have the smallest effective deposition velocities to high Arctic snow (0.03 cm s−1).

International audience; In the Abitibi subprovince of the Superior craton, Canada, recognition of intrusion-related gold deposits is improving, but their formation remains poorly understood. The recently reopened Lac Bachelor deposit in the northeastern part of the Abitibi subprovince is located on the edges of a syenitic complex, and this deposit is an example of a highly fractionated, Fe-Mg-poor, quartz-syenite to alkali-granite centered deposit. Gold is associated with pyrite in localized alkaline, fluorine, and hematite-rich metasomatized zones in magnetite-rich host rock. Minor mineralization is present in a quartz vein stockwork on the edges of the syenitic complex. A genetic model is proposed, wherein alkaline-oxidized magma, which favors sulfur and gold solubility and transport, migrates through the crust via major and subsidiary faults. The presence of miaroles, transolvus, and low-temperature crystallization conditions confirms the shallow emplacement of the magma. The high fluorine content of the magma, which lowers both viscosity and solidus temperature, favored the shallow emplacement of the magma and permitted the development of a long-lived magmatic-hydrothermal system. Oxygen and hydrogen isotopes, miaroles filling, and mineralized zone paragenesis confirm that oxidized hydrothermal fluids were exsolved from the magma. The planar geometry of the metasomatized ore zones indicates that hydrother-mal fluid circulation and metasomatism reactions occurred preferentially in high permeability pathways, such as preexisting faults in the host rock. The redox contrast between the oxidized magmatic-hydrothermal fluid and the intermediate volcanic host rock caused sulfide precipitation and gold deposition. This genetic model is applied to the Abitibi subprovince and other Archean cratons.

This contribution explores the petrogenetic relationships between silicate and carbonatitic rocks in the Crevier Alkaline Intrusion (CAI, Québec, Canada). The CAI is located in the Proterozoic Grenville Province and is composed of a suite of undersaturated peralkaline rocks from ijolite to nepheline syenite and carbonatites. Petrogenetic relationships between different undersaturated alkaline igneous rocks, carbonate-bearing and carbonate-free nepheline syenite and carbonatites observed in the CAI suggest that (1) carbonate-bearing and carbonate-free silicate rocks are comagmatic with carbonatite, and that (2) both silicate and carbonatitic liquids are fractionated from an ijolitic parental magma that has undergone liquid immiscibility. One of the observed facies is characterized by spectacular ocelli of carbonate-bearing nepheline syenite in a matrix of carbonatite. The younger nepheline syenite facies can be divided into two groups based on the presence or absence of magmatic carbonates. Both groups are characterized by the presence of pyrochlore-group minerals that carry the Nb–Ta mineralization. We specifically use accessory minerals such as zircon, pyrochlore and apatite to constrain the temporal and physicochemical parameters of the immiscibility process. By coupling (1) mineral textures, (2) trace elements, (3) Ti-in-zircon thermometry, and (4) oxygen isotope compositions, we have traced the crystallization of zircon before, during and after the immiscibility process. The results allowed us to constrain the minimum temperature of this process at ∼815–865°C. In addition, two magmatic populations of pyrochlore are identified through their petrographic and geochemical characteristics within the younger nepheline syenite facies. Pyrochlore from the earlier ocelli facies of carbonate-bearing nepheline syenite follow a Nb–Ta differentiation trend, whereas pyrochlore from the younger carbonate-free nepheline syenite follow a more classical Nb–Ti trend. Following the complete immiscibility between the silicate and carbonatitic liquids, the fractionation between Nb and Ta stopped while a new generation of Nb-rich pyrochlore grew, displaying a more classical Nb–Ti fractionation trend and a higher Nb/Ta ratio in the nepheline syenite.

International audience; The Connecticut Valley-Gaspé (CVG) trough represents a major, orogen-scale Silurian-Devonian basin of the Northern Appalachians. From Gaspé Peninsula to southern New England, the CVG trough has experienced a contrasting metamorphic and structural evolution during the Acadian orogeny. Along its strike, the CVG trough is characterized by increasing strain and polyphase structures, and by variations in the intensity of regional metamorphism and contrasting abundance of ~ 390 to 370 Ma granitic intrusions. In southern Quebec and northern Vermont, a series of NW-SE transects across the CVG trough have been studied in order to better understand these along-strike variations. Detailed structural analyses, combined with phase equilibria modeling, Raman spectrometry and muscovite 40Ar/39Ar dating highlight a progressive and incremental deformation involving south-north variation in the timing of metamorphism. Deformation evolves from a D1 crustal thickening event which originates in Vermont and progresses to southern Québec where it peaked at 0.6 GPa/380°C at c. 375 Ma. This was followed by a D2 event associated with continuous burial in Vermont from 378 Ma to 355 Ma, which produced peak metamorphic conditions of 0.85 GPa/630oC and exhumation in Quebec from 368 to 360 Ma. The D3 compressional exhumation event alsoevolved from south to north from 345 to 335 Ma. D1 to D3 deformation events form part of a continuum with an along-strike propagation rate of  50 km/m.y. During D1, the burial depth varied by more than 15 km between southern Quebec and Vermont, and this can be attributed to the occurrence of a major crustal indenter, the Bronson Hill Arc massif, in the New England segment of the Acadian collision zone.

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the Arctic can influence climate and precipitation in the region; yet our understanding of the concentrations and sources of INPs in this region remain uncertain. In the following, we (1) measured concentrations of INPs in the immersion mode in the Canadian Arctic marine boundary layer during summer 2014 on board the CCGS Amundsen, (2) determined ratios of surface areas of mineral dust aerosol to sea spray aerosol, and (3) investigated the source region of the INPs using particle dispersion modelling. Average concentrations of INPs at −15, −20, and −25 ∘C were 0.005, 0.044, and 0.154 L−1, respectively. These concentrations fall within the range of INP concentrations measured in other marine environments. For the samples investigated the ratio of mineral dust surface area to sea spray surface area ranged from 0.03 to 0.09. Based on these ratios and the ice active surface site densities of mineral dust and sea spray aerosol determined in previous laboratory studies, our results suggest that mineral dust is a more important contributor to the INP population than sea spray aerosol for the samples analysed. Based on particle dispersion modelling, the highest concentrations of INPs were often associated with lower-latitude source regions such as the Hudson Bay area, eastern Greenland, or north-western continental Canada. On the other hand, the lowest concentrations were often associated with regions further north of the sampling sites and over Baffin Bay. A weak correlation was observed between INP concentrations and the time the air mass spent over bare land, and a weak negative correlation was observed between INP concentrations and the time the air mass spent over ice and open water. These combined results suggest that mineral dust from local sources is an important contributor to the INP population in the Canadian Arctic marine boundary layer during summer 2014.

International audience; Detrital ages constrain the timing of deposition, along-strike paleo-geographic variations and the nature of erosional sources in sedimentary basins and can be used to constrain the transition between orogenic cycles. The Connecticut Valley-Gaspé (CVG) trough is a major Upper Ordovician-to-Devonian sedimentary basin that extends for >1000 km in the Northern Appalachians and was deposited during the Salinic and Acadian orogeneses. In Quebec and northern New England, the CVG trough is host to the Gaspé Belt and correlative units of the Connecticut Valley sequence (CVS). In southern Quebec, the Gaspé belt sedimentation occurred during late Silurian-to-Early Devonian crustal extension related to the Salinic orogeny. This study reports detrital U/Pb zircon and 40Ar/39Ar muscovite ages from the Ayers Cliff and Compton formations, Quebec and the correlatives Waits River and Gile Mountain formations, Vermont. Detrital zircon ages suggest that proximal early Silurian-to-Devonian erosional sources were submerged during sedimentation, which is consistent with an extension-related marine transgression marked by the Ayers Cliff and Waits River formations. The lack of Ediacaran zircons in the Ayers Cliff Formation contrasts the Waits River Formation, suggesting that the nature of erosional sources varied during deposition of the lowermost part of the basin. Stratigraphically higher Compton and Gile Mountain formations have similar detrital zircon provenance suggesting homogenization of detrital contributions. This is attributed to the encroachment of Avalonian terranes and ongoing erosion, probably during uplift of Laurentia and Avalonian terranes leading to foreland basin development and deposition of the uppermost part of the Compton and Gile Mountain formations which yielded youngest mean ages of ca. 413 Ma and ca. 401 Ma, respectively. Low-grade metamorphic conditions allow the preservation of detrital 40Ar/39Ar muscovite ages which highlight the contribution of erosional sources that experienced Grenvillian, Taconian and Salinic metamorphism.

International audience; Motivated by the need to predict how the Arctic atmosphere will change in a warming world, this article summarizes recent advances made by the research consortium NETCARE (Network on Climate and Aerosols: Addressing Key Uncertainties in Remote Canadian Environments) that contribute to our fundamental understanding of Arctic aerosol particles as they relate to climate forcing. The overall goal of NETCARE research has been to use an interdisciplinary approach encompassing extensive field observations and a range of chemical transport, earth system, and biogeochemical models. Several major findings and advances have emerged from NETCARE since its formation in 2013 . (1) Unexpectedly high summertime dimethyl sulfide (DMS) levels were identified in ocean water and the overlying atmosphere in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Furthermore, melt ponds, which are widely prevalent, were identified as an important DMS source. (2) Evidence was found of widespread particle nucleation and growth in the marine boundary layer in the CAA in the summertime. DMS-oxidation-driven nucleation is facilitated by the presence of atmospheric ammonia arising from sea bird colony emissions, and potentially also from coastal regions, tundra, and biomass burning. Via accumulation of secondary organic material (SOA), a significant fraction of the new particles grow to sizes that are active in cloud droplet formation. Although the gaseous precursors to Arctic marine SOA remain poorly defined, the measured levels of common continental SOA precursors (isoprene and monoterpenes) were low, whereas elevated mixing ratios of oxygenated volatile organic compounds were inferred to arise via processes involving the sea surface microlayer. (3) The variability in the vertical distribution of black carbon (BC) under both springtime Arctic haze and more pristine summertime aerosol conditions was observed. Measured particle size distributions and mixing states were used to constrain, for the first time, calculations of aerosol–climate interactions under Arctic conditions. Aircraft- and ground-based measurements were used to better establish the BC source regions that supply the Arctic via long-range transport mechanisms. (4) Measurements of ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the Arctic indicate that a major source of these particles is mineral dust, likely derived from local sources in the summer and long-range transport in the spring. In addition, INPs are abundant in the sea surface microlayer in the Arctic, and possibly play a role in ice nucleation in the atmosphere when mineral dust concentrations are low. (5) Amongst multiple aerosol components, BC was observed to have the smallest effective deposition velocities to high Arctic snow.

Two Types of Ice Clouds (TICs) have been characterized in the Arctic during the polar night and early spring. TIC-1 are composed by non-precipitating small ice crystals of less than 30 &micro, m in diameter. The second type, TIC-2, are characterized by a low concentration of large precipitating ice crystals (&gt, 30 &micro, m). Here, we evaluate the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model performance both in space and time after implementing a parameterization based on a stochastic approach dedicated to the simulation of ice clouds in the Arctic. Well documented reference cases provided us in situ data from the spring of 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) campaign over Alaska. Simulations of the microphysical properties of the TIC-2 clouds on 15 and 25 April 2008 (polluted or acidic cases) and TIC-1 clouds on non-polluted cases are compared to DARDAR (raDAR/liDAR) satellite products. Our results show that the stochastic approach based on the classical nucleation theory, with the appropriate contact angle, is better than the original scheme in WRF model to represent TIC-1 and TIC-2 properties (ice crystal concentration and size) in response to the IN acidification.

Understanding the West African monsoon (WAM) dynamics in the mid-Holocene (MH) is a crucial issue in climate modeling, because numerical models typically fail to reproduce the extensive precipitation suggested by proxy evidence. This discrepancy may be largely due to the assumption of both unrealistic land surface cover and atmospheric aerosol concentration. In this study, the MH environment is simulated in numerical experiments by imposing extensive vegetation over the Sahara and the consequent reduction in airborne dust concentration. A dramatic increase in precipitation is simulated across the whole of West Africa, up to the Mediterranean coast. This precipitation response is in better agreement with proxy data, in comparison with the case in which only changes in orbital forcing are considered. Results show a substantial modification of the monsoonal circulation, characterized by an intensification of large-scale deep convection through the entire Sahara, and a weakening and northward shift (~6.5°) of the African easterly jet. The greening of the Sahara also leads to a substantial reduction in the African easterly wave activity and associated precipitation. The reorganization of the regional atmospheric circulation is driven by the vegetation effect on radiative forcing and associated heat fluxes, with the reduction in dust concentration to enhance this response. The results for the WAM in the MH present important implications for understanding future climate scenarios in the region and in teleconnected areas, in the context of projected wetter conditions in West Africa.

The international programme "THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme" provides a framework in which to tackle the challenge of improving the forecast skill of high-impact weather through international collaboration between academic institutions, operational forecast centres, and users of forecast products. The objectives of the THORPEX Data Assimilation and Observation Strategy Working Group (DAOS-WG) are two-fold. The primary goal is to assess the impact of observations and various targeting methods to provide guidance for observation campaigns and for the configuration of the Global Observing System. The secondary goal is to setup an optimal framework for data assimilation, including aspects such as targeted observations, satellite data, background error covariances and quality control. The Atlantic THORPEX Regional campaign, ATReC, in 2003, has been very successful technically and has provided valuable datasets to test targeting issues. Various data impact experiments have been performed, showing a small but very slightly positive impact of targeted observations. Projects of the DAOS-WG include working on the AMMA field experiment, in the context of IPY and to prepare the future THORPEX-PARC field campaign in the Pacific by comparing sensitivity of the forecasts to observations between several groups.

International audience; In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric teleconnections to remote phenomena in the North Atlantic, Eurasia or the Indian Ocean.

International audience; Des etudes geothermiques ont ete effectuees dans le cadre du projet Lithoprobe afin de systematiquement documenter les variations du flux thermique et de la production de chaleur a la surface dans les grandes provinces geologiques du Bouclier canadien. L'une des principales constatations a ete que, dans le Bouclier, les variations de flux thermique a la surface sont dominees par la generation de chaleur par la croute. Les variations horizontales dans le flux thermique du manteau sont trop petites pour etre resolues par des mesures du flux thermique. Differentes methodes limitent le flux thermique a la plage de 12-18 unites de flux calorique. La plupart des anomalies de flux thermique (hautes et basses) sont dues a des variations dans la composition et la structure de la croute. La distribution verticale des radioelements est caracterisee par un indice de differenciation D-I qui mesure le rapport entre la surface et la generation moyenne de chaleur par la croute dans une province. La determination de la temperature du manteau exige la connaissance a la fois du flux thermique a la surface et du D-I. Les temperatures du manteau augmentent avec le flux thermique en surface mais diminuent avec un indice D-I croissant. La stabilisation de la croute est obtenue par differenciation crustale ce qui engendre des temperatures decroissantes dans la croute inferieure. Les temperatures actuelles du manteau, deduites d'etudes sur les xenolites et des variations dans la velocite des ondes sismiques primaires (P-n) du manteau obtenues des leves de sismique refraction, concordent avec les geothermes calcules a partir du flux thermique. Ces resultats soulignent le fait que les temperatures lithospheriques profondes n'augmentent pas toujours avec le flux thermique a la surface. La couverture dense de donnees qui a ete atteinte dans le Bouclier canadien permet une certaine discrimination entre les effets de la temperature et de la composition sur la vitesse des ondes sismiques dans le manteau lithospherique.

International audience; We study the recent dynamics of the central Nepal Himalaya, focusing on possible reactivation of the footwall of the Main Central thrust, which is marked by an abrupt topographic transition. Different tectonic mechanisms, such as overthrusting of a major crustal ramp, underplating, or out-of-sequence thrusting, have been suggested to explain the morphology and exhumation patterns in this area. We present 25 new apatite fission-track ages collected along a north-south transect in central Nepal, as well as two age-elevation profiles. Ages are consistently younger than 3 Ma old in the Main Central thrust zone and increase continuously to 4-6 Ma old in the south. No jump in apatite fission-track ages is observed across the topographic transition. Apparent exhumation rates from age-elevation relationships vary from 0.46 + 0.13/-0.09 km/Ma in the Palung granite south of Kathmandu to 4.4 + 4.8/-1.5 km/Ma in the Main Central thrust zone; the latter rate is probably overestimated by a factor of two due to topographic effects. As shown by a new numerical model, these strongly varying exhumation rates can be explained by overthrusting of a crustal ramp, which exerts a primary control on age patterns, and do not require out-of-sequence reactivation of thrusts in the Main Central thrust zone.

The current research aims at providing a characterisation of dynamical balance at mesoscale, i.e., the balance between the dynamical and physical forcings, for meteorological phenomena having a horizontal scale on the order of 15 to 150 km. It combines numerical simulations with the nonlinear balance theory in the context of idealized simulations as well as in a real case simulation. The longer term objective is to improve quantitative precipitation forecasts by developing a methodology in which the initial state of the numerical model's dynamics are constrained to a state of dynamical balance in the context where precipitation data is included at initial time. First, the research identifies the precise sequence of physical processes involved in the adjustment toward a balanced state in numerical models, with comparisons made with classical linear adjustment theory, from small to large scales (meteorological phenomena with diameters on the order of 15 to 1500 km). The analysis demonstrates that when the heating occurs at small scales: (a) latitude variations (Coriolis force) have a very limited impact on the mechanisms and the balanced state; (b) the adjustment time toward the balanced state is much reduced when compared to simulations at larger scales; (c) atmospheric static stability has a significant impact on the adjustment time and balanced state itself; (d) these results are in agreement with classical linear adjustment theory; (e) it is possible to use the nonlinear balance equation in combination with a complete vertical motion equation to determine the balanced divergent wind at small scales. Second, the methodology is applied to a real case as simulated by the Global Environmental Multi-Scale (GEM) model in limited-area configuration at a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km. This real case is characterised by summer deep convection in the absence of significant baroclinicity and upper-level dynamics. Among conclusions resulting of the analysis of this case, it has been shown that: (a) the type of balance at this scale is mostly related to horizontal divergence; (b) information given by divergent winds from short-term forecasts of vertical motion (and thus precipitation) is very important; (c) it is possible to calculate balanced divergent winds at this scale by using a complete vertical motion equation in combination with the non-linear balance equation, and by using temperature tendencies generated by the model convection that are output directly by the numerical model; (d) when imposing a balance of the divergent winds at initial time, precipitation forecasts (evaluated from vertical motion) are remarkably similar when compared to a control numerical simulation. To conclude, the research proposes an appropriate methodology to characterise a balanced state in mesoscale numerical forecast models for meteorological phenomena having a diameter as small as 15 km, and to use dynamical balance relationships in numerical models using a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km. The most important contributions of this work are: (a) a characterisation of the precise sequence of physical processes involved in the adjustment to a balanced state in numerical models as related by the classical linear adjustment theory; (b) the characterisation of balanced state at mesoscales in idealized numerical simulations; (c) the characterisation of balanced state at mesoscales in the context of a simulated real case summer deep convection; (d) the importance of information brought by divergent winds for the precipitation forecasts at mesoscales; (e) the demonstration that it is possible to use model-generated convective temperature tendencies in combination with the non-linear balance equation and a complete vertical motion equation, in order to determine balanced divergent winds with a good accuracy. Thus, the current project is innovative in its use of equations involving a non-linear balance at small scales, as well as in its use of model-generated convective temperature tendencies in equations involving a dynamical balance at this scale.Limits of this research deal primarily with certain aspects of idealized simulations, the methodology used to evaluate the balanced divergent winds and the type of real case simulated here. Further research may take into account parts of these caveats., La présente recherche se propose de caractériser l'équilibre dynamique à mésoéchelle, c'est-à-dire l'équilibre entre les forçages dynamiques et physiques et ce, pour des phénomènes météorologiques ayant une échelle horizontale de l'ordre de 15 à 150 km. Elle combine des simulations numériques et la théorie de la balance non-linéaire autant dans un contexte de simulations idéalisées que dans celui d'une simulation d'un cas réel. Elle s'inscrit dans un objectif à plus long terme d'améliorer les prévisions à court terme des quantités de précipitations, en développant une méthode permettant de contraindre l'état initial de la dynamique du modèle à un état de balance dynamique dans un contexte où les données de précipitations sont inclues au temps initial. Dans un premier temps, l'étude porte sur l'identification précise de la suite des processus physiques impliqués dans l'ajustement vers un état balancé dans les modèles numériques en lien avec la théorie classique d'ajustement linéaire et ce, autant à petite qu'à grande échelle (phénomènes météorologiques d'un diamètre de 15 à 1500 km). Les analyses démontrent que, lorsque la taille du réchauffement est à petite échelle : (a) la latitude (force de Coriolis) n'a qu'une influence très limitée sur les mécanismes et sur l'état balancé ; (b) le temps d'ajustement vers l'état balancé est très réduit par rapport aux simulations à plus grande échelle ; (c) la stabilité statique de l'atmosphère a une influence significative sur le temps d'ajustement ainsi que sur l'état balancé lui-même ; (d) ces résultats sont en accord avec la théorie classique d'ajustement linéaire ; (e) il est possible d'utiliser l'équation de balance non-linéaire en combinaison avec une équation complète décrivant le mouvement vertical pour déterminer le vent divergent balancé à petite échelle. Dans un deuxième temps, la méthodologie est appliquée à un cas réel tel que simulé par le modèle Global Environnemental Multi-Échelle (GEM) en mode aire limitée à une résolution horizontale de 2.5 km. Ce cas réel est caractérisé par de la convection profonde d'été en absence de baroclinicité et de dynamique en altitude significatives. Parmi les conclusions dégagées de l'analyse, il a été montré que : (a) le type de balance à cette échelle est principalement relié à la divergence horizontale ; (b) l'information apportée par les vents divergents dans la prévision à court terme du mouvement vertical (et donc de la précipitation) est très importante ; (c) il est possible de calculer les vents divergents balancés, à cette échelle, en utilisant une équation du mouvement vertical complète en combinaison avec l'équation de balance non-linéaire et en utilisant les tendances de température, causées par la convection, directement issues du modèle numérique ; (d) en imposant que les vents divergents soient balancés au temps initial, les prévisions de précipitations (évaluées par l'intermédiaire du mouvement vertical) sont remarquablement similaires par rapport à une simulation de contrôle. En conclusion, le travail réalisé a permis principalement de développer une méthodologie appropriée pour caractériser l'état balancé dans les modèles numériques de prévision à méso-échelle pour des phénomènes météorologiques ayant un diamètre aussi petit que de l'ordre de 15 km, et utiliser des relations de balance dynamique dans les modèles numériques à une résolution horizontale de 2.5 km. Les contributions les plus importantes sont : (a) l'identification précise de la suite des processus physiques impliqués dans l'ajustement vers un état balancé dans les modèles numériques en lien avec la théorie classique d'ajustement linéaire ; (b) la caractérisation de l'état balancé à mésoéchelle dans des simulation numériques idéalisées ; (c) la caractérisation de l'état balancé à méso-échelle dans un contexte de simulation réaliste d'un cas de convection profonde d'été ; (d) l'importance de l'information apportée par les vents divergents pour les prévisions de précipitations à méso-échelle ; (e) la démonstration qu'il est possible d'utiliser les tendances de température issues de la convection dans le modèle en combinaison avec l'équation de balance non-linéaire et une équation complète décrivant le mouvement vertical, afin de déterminer des vents divergents balancés ayant une bonne précision. Ainsi, le présent projet est innovateur pour l'utilisation des relations impliquant une balance non-linéaire à petite échelle, ainsi que pour l'utilisation des tendances de température issues directement de la convection du modèle dans des équations représentant un type de balance dynamique à cette échelle. Les limites de la recherche portent principalement à la fois sur certains aspects des simulations idéalisées, de la méthode d'évaluation des vents divergents balancés et sur le type de situation réelle présentée ici. Des études complémentaires permettraient d'approfondir quelques-unes des limites identifiées.

International audience; Cloud radiative forcing is a very important concept to understand what kind of role the clouds play in climate change with thermal effect or albedo effect. In spite of that much progress has been achieved, the clouds are still poorly described in the climate models. Due to the complex aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions, high surface albedo of snow and ice cover, and without solar radiation in long period of the year, the Arctic strong warming caused by increasing greenhouse gases (as most GCMs suggested) has not been verified by the observations. In this study, we were dedicated to quantify the aerosol effect on the Arctic cloud radiative forcing by Northern Aerosol Regional Climate Model (NARCM). Major aerosol species such as Arctic haze sulphate, black carbon, sea salt, organics and dust have been included during our simulations. By inter-comparisons with the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data, we find surface cloud radiative forcing (SCRF) is ?22 W/m2 for shortwave and 36 W/m2 for longwave. Total cloud forcing is 14 W/m2 with minimum of ?35 W/m2 in early July. If aerosols are taken into account, the SCRF has been increased during winter while negative SCRF has been enhanced during summer. Our estimate of aerosol forcing is about ?6 W/m2 in the Arctic.