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This paper uses issuance-level data to study how equity capital inflows that enter emerging market economies affect equity issuance and corporate investment. It shows that foreign inflows are strongly correlated with country-level issuance. The relation reflects the behavior of large issuers issuing in domestic equity markets and that of firms issuing in international markets. Those larger, more liquid, and highly valued firms are the ones more likely to raise equity when their country receives capital inflows. To identify supply-side shocks, capital inflows into each country are instrumented with exogenous changes in other countries' attractiveness to foreign investors. Shifts in the supply of foreign capital are important drivers of increased equity inflows. Instrumented inflows lead a subset of firms (large domestic issuers and foreign issuers) to raise new equity, which they use to fund investment. Corporate investment increases between one-tenth and four-tenths the amount of foreign equity capital entering the country.

We introduce the structural conditional correlation (SCC) methodology to the foreign flows literature to identify the contemporaneous return-flow interaction and provide new evidence using the first daily data from a sizeable European emerging market and comparing to Asian markets. SCC results indicate significant bilateral intraday interaction between net foreign flows and market returns, and the presence of their latent common drivers. Allowing for these effects alters previously uniform results of positive feedback trading for some Asian markets, as well as the price impact estimates. Foreigners display a sluggish response to global information, which cannot be attributed to their information disadvantage. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

The pattern of debt flows to peripheral European Monetary Union members seems puzzling: they are mostly indirect and channeled through the large countries of the European Monetary Union. This paper examines to what extent the introduction of the euro and the elimination of the intra-area currency risk can explain this puzzle. A three-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework with endogenous portfolio choice and two currencies is developed. In the equilibrium, the core members of the European Monetary Union emerge as the main group of lenders to the peripheral European Monetary Union members. Outside lenders are pushed from the periphery debt markets because of currency risk. The model generates a pattern of debt flows consistent with the data despite the absence of any exogenous frictions or market segmentations.

Business groups, which are collections of publicly traded companies with significant amount of common ownership, dominate private sector activity in developing countries. This paper studies how information flows within these groups by analyzing the trading behavior of pension fund managers in firms that belong to the same group. The paper shows that while pension fund managers are momentum traders on non-affiliated companies, they trade in anticipation of future abnormal returns in affiliated firms. Ownership concentration and business group ties exacerbate information asymmetries, discouraging investment and depressing stock market participation. Using the merger and acquisition activity among pension fund managers as a natural experiment, the paper provides evidence that increases in stock ownership concentration, via the threat of informed trading, adversely affect liquidity. The results indicate that cross-ownership structures and extensive investor-industry relations might curb the expected benefits from the presence of institutional investors, limiting market development.

Market-based reforms and the opening up of trade and investment initiated over the past four years have had a positive impact on growth in Myanmar. These have enhanced private sector participation and increased the role of exports in the economy. Reforms have included streamlined business entry procedures, reduced export and import licensing requirements, and enhanced public-private partnerships and dialogue. Promoting private sector competitiveness and inclusion in Myanmar have enormous potential to drive job creation, economic diversification, and structural transformation. This would involve improving the investment climate with an emphasis on transparency and predictability; reducing trade costs and strengthening connectivity for economic integration; enhancing public-private partnerships; and strengthening institutional capacity to drive the reform process. The ongoing peace process calls for careful sequencing of reforms, starting with reducing the costs of doing business and engaging in trade; consulting with local communities; and supporting vulnerable groups adversely affected by economic changes.

The objective of this paper is to understand the factors driving the location decisions of multinational corporations. The paper uses literature-review and expert-interview techniques to understand what cities can do to be best positioned to attract international capital.

Based on preliminary estimates, the Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) economy grew by 7.5 percent in 2014, compared to an average of 8 percent over 2011-13. Looking forward, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow further in 2015 before accelerating in the medium term. Average annual inflation in 2014 decelerated to 4.2 percent from 6.4 percent a year earlier, driven primarily by slower growth in food prices and a decline in fuel prices. In response to a widened fiscal deficit in FY2012-13, the government embarked on much needed fiscal corrective measures in FY2013-14 and FY2014-15. Foreign exchange reserves coverage remains low as compared with prudential benchmarks. While the nominal exchange rate remained relatively stable within the band set by the Bank of Laos (BOL), the real exchange rate continued to appreciate. Indications in 2014 are that bank credit growth is slowing down sharply compared to its previous rapid pace over several years. In order to grasp new opportunities and enjoy the benefits of regional integration, it is necessary for Lao PDR to take steps to create a conducive business environment. In order to achieve broad-based, inclusive growth and poverty reduction in Lao PDR, channeling greater resources toward tackling key workforce skills and productivity challenges is of significant importance.

Cross-country panel data are used to assess the effect of free-trade agreements on flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Free-trade agreements are found to have a significant positive effect on FDI flows, and free-trade agreements are found to matter more for the smaller members of the agreement. For example, the North American Free-Trade Agreement's (NAFTA) effect on FDI flows into Mexico is much larger than its effect on flows into the United States. These cross country results are used to assess NAFTA's effect on FDI flows into Mexico. After controlling for a set of other factors such as an increase in worldwide FDI flows the trade agreement is found to generate FDI flows nearly 60 percent higher than they would have been without the agreement.

The Securities Settlement Systems (SSS) in the People's Republic of China (PRC) are organized around three different types of markets, which are the bond market, the corporate securities market, and the futures market. The China Government Depositary and Clearing Corporation Limited (CCDC) is the SSS as well as the central securities depository (CSD) for bonds. The China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited (SD and C) is the central counterparty (CCP), SSS, as well as the CSD for all instruments traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE). The four futures exchanges have their own clearing and settlement departments, which offer the function of a CCP. The CCDC, SD and C, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), Dalian Commodities Exchange (DCE), and Zhengzhou Commodities Exchange (ZCE) operate important securities and derivatives settlement systems both, due to the large volume and value of transactions and the fact that they support key financial sector markets (interbank bond market, stock exchanges and futures). The assessment of the bonds market-CCDC system against the Recommendations for Securities Settlement Systems (RSSS) concludes that the system observes (observed or broadly observed) thirteen of the 19 recommendations, being one not applicable. The assessment of the stock exchanges-SD and C system against the RSSS concludes that the system observes (observed or broadly observed) seventeen of the 19 recommendations. The assessment of the commodities futures markets-SHFE system against the Recommendations for Central Counterparties (RCCP) concludes that the system observes (observed or broadly observed) eleven of the 15 recommendations, being one not applicable. The present document is the assessment of securities and derivatives settlement systems in the PRC based on the recommendations of the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) for RSSS and the recommendations of CPSS-IOSCO for Central Counterparties (RCCP). The paper is divided into following five parts: the first part gives general information; the second gives information and methodology used for assessment; the third part is securities and derivatives settlement systems infrastructure overview; the fourth part is main findings from the assessment with international standards; and the fifth part gives authorities' response.

Despite decades of war and instability, Iraq's abundant natural resources, strategic geographic location and cultural history endow Iraq with tremendous potential for growth and diverse economic development. Driven by windfall oil revenues in recent years, the Government of Iraq has invested heavily in rebuilding the infrastructure of the country, and its abundant oil reserves ensure that progress can continue steadily. This report was initiated at the request of the Iraqi government to assess the local investment climate and identify those high priority factors which most significantly impede private sector development in Iraq, in an effort to prioritize the recommended investments, institutional and regulatory reforms which would most significantly contribute to sustainable private sector growth and increased productivity.

Cambodia is one of the world's most open economies, sustaining high levels of growth in an environment of relatively weak governance. Emerging from a legacy of genocide and civil conflict, the country has sought to address human and social capital deficits across sectors, weaknesses in public finance, and corruption. Despite improvements in access to basic services, governance constraints persist and may threaten gains from economic integration. Over the 2004-10 period, the Bank's engagement on Governance and Anticorruption (GAC) issues in Cambodia was not defined by a single, overarching priority or entry point (such as core public sector management, natural resource management, or service delivery). Rather, the Bank was opportunistic, opting to support the government's GAC efforts across multiple sectors and institutions. The relevance of this opportunistic approach is judged to be moderately relevant. The Bank's objectives on public financial management (PFM) were highly relevant given Cambodia's nontransparent and weak public expenditure management and limited capacity. The Bank's response to sectoral governance weaknesses such as red tape, inefficiencies, and other forms of rent-seeking in customs is rated modest given the need for the government to implement its World Trade Organization commitments. The Bank's project level engagement is rated as moderately relevant. As a basis for reinstating suspended projects, portfolio-wide measures included the use of an Independent Procurement Agency (IPA) for the International Development Association (IDA) procurements, and the implementation of Good Governance Frameworks (GGF) for all IDA projects.

This paper analyzes the joint behavior of international capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents over the business cycle and during financial crises. We show that gross capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents are very large and volatile relative to net capital flows. Namely, when foreigners invest in a country domestic agents tend to invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners tend to bring in more capital and domestic agents tend to invest more abroad. During crises, especially during severe ones, there is retrenchment, i.e. a reduction in capital inflows by foreigners and an increase in capital inflows by domestic agents. This evidence sheds light on the nature of the shocks driving international capital flows and discriminates among existing theories. Our findings are consistent with shocks that affect foreigners and domestic agents asymmetrically - e.g. sovereign risk and asymmetric information - over productivity shocks.

The law and related implementing regulations that constitute the regulatory framework affecting the capital markets in Indonesia are largely consistent with the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation. Nevertheless this assessment finds that legislative reforms and other actions that are in the process of being implemented to clarify and expand the security regulator's authority and to cure certain self-acknowledged gaps should be accelerated. Further, the assessment concludes that attention must be paid to assure that implementation of the regulatory framework results in a system that reliably detects, deters, and sanctions securities violations and reliably identifies and prevents or mitigates prudential concerns. This may require legal reforms beyond those necessary to reform the specific capital markets law, as discussed more extensively by the separate legal assessor. How significant such further reform will be to enforcement effectiveness will depend in part on the manner in which regulatory enforcement powers and authorities are augmented and enhanced under the capital markets law revision. Capital markets operations are heavily dependent on legal certainty, and in particular reliable application of contract, company, insolvency, and other legal protections.

The Thai economy runs on a single engine: external demand. The economic roller coaster since the onset of the global financial crisis can be overwhelmingly attributed to fluctuations in the output of three sectors most sensitive to external demand: manufacturing, logistics (transportation and storage), and tourism (hotels and restaurants). As global trade contracted between the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, Thailand's real gross domestic product (GDP) fell 6.3 percent, before rebounding 6.9 percent through the end of 2009 on a revival in actual and expected external demand. At the end of 2009, real GDP was back to pre-crisis levels, as measured in seasonally adjusted terms. For 2009 as a whole, however, real GDP fell 2.2 percent. The dominance of sectors linked to external demand over Thailand's growth dynamics is not new. Both sets of sectors grew at about the same pace prior to the 1997 financial crisis. However, a structural break took place in the aftermath of the crisis, when sectors linked to external demand grew an average of 6.1 percent between 2001 and 2007 compared to a 4.3 percent growth rate of other sectors. While the sectors linked to external demand are expected to grow below the historical average in the near term due to lower growth in demand from advanced economies, a reversal of the structural change observed since 1998 is unlikely. This will require an acceleration of the growth of the sectors linked to domestic demand. But the constraints that limited the growth of these sectors in the past not only remain but have been compounded in the near term by the escalation of the political conflict. This will ensure that growth rates in sectors linked to domestic demand will also remain below their (already low) historical averages and the dominance of external demand on the economy will continue to increase.

The chief purpose of this handbook is to provide government lawyers with a framework to evaluate the quality of a country's investment legislation (if it exists) and how the legislation relates to its investment policy and investment incentives. More specifically, it deals with creating new and reforming existing investment legislation in developing and transition economies in furtherance of the World Bank Group's (WBG's) mandate to promote private investment - domestic and foreign - in those economies. Handbook appendices contain drafting guidelines and checklist of issues that foreign direct investment (FDI) laws should include and that countries can use when drafting investment legislation. The report is structured as follows: chapter one defines key terms about investment law reform in an effort to clarify terminology and concepts and show how they are related. Chapter two examines how widespread investment codes are and explains their utility and limitations. Chapter three provides recommendations on the structure of investment legislation and the key provisions to be included such as definitions, investors' guarantees, incentives, framework for investment promotion, and transitional provisions. Chapter four discusses the fundamental issue of investor entry, in particular the conditions under which foreign investors can invest including sectoral restrictions, limitations on foreign ownership, authorization and screening, minimum investment, and performance requirements. Chapter five discusses key investor guarantees including fair and equitable treatment, national treatment, most-favored-nation (MFN) treatment, protection against expropriation, guaranteed convertibility and repatriation of profits, and settlement of disputes. Chapter six looks at the issue of investment incentives, (fiscal incentives in particular) and their effectiveness. Chapter seven summarizes key aspects of investment promotion to guide legal drafters, should policymakers want the investment code to set out the basic framework of investment promotion. Chapter eight presents the various phases of investment law reform projects, from the government's request for assistance with legislation to the delivery of a project plan. Chapter nine identifies some of the challenges in preparing an investment code and the support that governments may need until the law is promulgated. Chapter ten discusses the monitoring and evaluation (M and E) of investment law reforms, including the key indicators involved in a desk review and medium- and large-scale projects.

This publication targets private sector stakeholders who want to reduce a company s risk and vulnerability to corruption. It aims to provide guidance and recommendations for integrating ethics programs into corporate governance mechanisms to safeguard against corruption. Anti-corruption attitudes have changed significantly over the past two decades. Corruption is no longer regarded as a subject to be avoided and is now widely condemned for its damaging effect on countries, industries, governments, and the livelihoods of individual citizens. More importantly, the view of the private sector in the corruption equation is changing. Companies are no longer viewed only as facilitators of corruption - they are increasingly recognized as victims and a valuable source of working solutions, and anti-corruption efforts seen as integral to good corporate governance, Predictable, competitive, and fair economic environments free of corruption are central to sustainable business, economic growth and national development. It has been an easier task to raise this awareness than to reduce the corrosive effects of corruption, especially its worst manifestation of state capture. And though the challenge defies simple solutions, significant progress is being made. Today we have in place numerous international conventions and global collective action initiatives that set higher standards of transparency and accountability in corporate and public governance. More importantly, such standards are buttressed by a growing convergence of ethical values that set the tone for 'doing the right thing' in both the public and private sectors.

This report assesses Bulgaria's corporate governance policy framework for publicly traded companies. It highlights recent improvements to laws and regulation, makes policy recommendations, and provides investors with a benchmark against which to measure corporate governance in Bulgaria. This report updates the 2002 Corporate Governance ROSC (CG ROSC). As Bulgaria continues its dynamic pace of reforms, all key stakeholders involved in the reforms process may wish to focus on the following four reform priorities: first, the Financial Supervision Commission (FSC) should continue to strictly enforce existing laws and may wish to focus on how the following three groups "comply or explain" with the recently issued national code of corporate governance (NCGC): (i) holding companies, in which governance practices are considered insufficient; (ii) the largest ten issuers that make-up most of the trading and market capitalization; and (iii) principal issuers on the unofficial market that are driving much of the market's growth. Second, the task force that launched the NCGC may wish to eventually review the NCGC to offer more practical guidance on how to implement good practice. Third, the government and regulators may wish to make minor amendments to the legal and regulatory framework. Fourth and finally, the most important factor to improve corporate governance will be to train and thus, over time, build a cadre of qualified, experienced, and professional directors who are empowered to ensure that the "law on the books" translates into actual practice.

This paper is one of several case studies prepared for the World Bank. The objective of the case studies is to provide the Commission on Growth and Development insights on the policy reform process in developing countries that give rise to economic growth. In contrast to other countries where economic reforms ushered in a long period of sustained growth, there is no such episode in Philippine economic history. Since the restoration of democracy in 1986, the Philippines under the Ramos administration came closest to breaking out of its 'sick man of Asia' image. The confidence generated by the administration among local and international players and analysts resulted from wide-ranging reforms rooted primarily in a sound macroeconomic and investor-friendly regime as well as global competitiveness. This study is not intended as a scorecard of the Ramos Administration. Rather, it concentrates on three specific sector reforms during the Ramos administration that demonstrate the elements of successful reform processes. These reforms not only helped to free up demands on public finances then- considered, in today's parlance, the 'binding constraint' on needed public investment and reduced risk premium to encourage private investments-but over time brought gains, some unforeseen and broader in terms of positive spillover effects on the rest of the economy, and linkage to overall growth today.

This paper tracks the process through which FIAS, the investment climate advisory service of the World Bank Group advised the government of Latvia from 1998 to 2004 on ways to improve the business environment, achieve higher rates of economic growth, and thereby alleviate poverty. This case study shows that it is reasonable to describe how assistance by FIAS led to an improved business environment. The role that FIAS advice played may be discerned at the level of benefits accruing to the target population (i.e., the amount of resources freed up by lower costs associated with administrative procedures). Whether these benefits accruing to the business community translated into higher rates of investment and productivity, and thus to higher economic growth and reduced poverty, is a function of the entire political, social, and economic structure in Latvia. It is evident that there are many links in the chain of causation, and that the direct attribution FIAS can claim diminishes at every step downstream from its activities. Credit for success must be shared with the Government of Latvia and its immediate stakeholders (i.e., the businesses and their associations), the European Union accession process, the input of many other complementary projects, market forces, and fortuitous timing.

This paper analyzes recent automotive investment in the Slovak Republic and shows how the development of the automotive industry has influenced growth in productivity and output in the broader economy. The study also discusses the motivations for automotive investment, with the country evolving from a relative laggard in reform implementation and foreign direct investment in the late 1990s to one of the region's top performers and one of the fastest-growing economies. It is argued that strong reform implementation, together with continued and credible commitment to reforms, were both preconditions for attracting automotive investments and the key factors that enabled these investments to flourish. The reform efforts were made possible by strong political consensus on accelerating European Union (EU) accession and boosting living standards. Taking into account the specificity of the industry, other aspects related to factor endowments have also played a role. Generous investment incentives appear to have played an important role in swaying foreign investors in selecting the Slovak Republic within the broader region of central Europe. Once investment in automotive production started, it contributed to additional investment by suppliers that has helped generate locally owned suppliers. These, in turn, are beginning to supply car producers in neighboring countries. All told, the full impact of the original automotive investment will be felt only over several years, but even in the early years it has been substantial. With output at the existing three producers set to reach capacity only by 2010, the impact is likely to be more substantial still.

Among 51 countries studied, there are large regional differences in the proportion of private wealth held abroad, ranging from 3 percent in South Asia to 39 percent in Africa. Three variables explain capital flight in Africa: exchange rate overvaluation, adverse investor risk ratings, and high indebtedness. Collier, Hoeffler, and Pattillo examine flight capital in the context of portfolio choice. They estimate the stock of flight capital held abroad and compare it with the stock of real (nonfinancial) capital held within each country. For 51 countries, they construct estimates (as of 1990) of private domestic capital and flight capital - which combined add up to domestic wealth. There are large regional differences in the proportion of private wealth that is held abroad, ranging from 3 percent in South Asia to 39 percent in Africa. They explain differences in portfolio choice in terms of the capital to labor ratio, indebtedness, exchange rate distortions, and risk ratings-all proxies for differences in the risk-adjusted rate of return on capital. They then apply the results to four policy questions in which private portfolio choices are potentially important: the effect of the East Asian crisis on domestic capital outflows; spillovers; the effect of HIPC debt relief on capital repatriation; and why Africa has so much of its private wealth outside the continent. Their conclusions: The four most severely affected East Asian countries will eventually lose about $250 billion in domestic wealth as a result of the deterioration in risk between March 1997 and September 1998. They found some support for a spillover model. The effect of the HIPC debt relief initiative on capital repatriation will vary massively between HIPC-eligible countries. Africa has by far the lowest capital per worker, which makes massive capital flight from Africa all the more distinctive. Three variables explain capital flight in Africa: exchange rate overvaluation, adverse investor risk ratings, and high indebtedness. This paper-a joint product of the Development Research Group and the International Monetary Fund-is part of a larger effort to understand how growth in low income countries can be increased. Paul Collier may be contacted at pcollier@worldbank.org.