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The Solar Accumulated and Peak Proton and Heavy Ion Radiation Environment (SAPPHIRE) model provides environment specification outputs for all aspects of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) environment. The model is based upon a thoroughly cleaned and carefully processed data set. Herein the evolution of the solar proton model is discussed with comparisons to other models and data. This paper discusses the construction of the underlying data set, the modelling methodology, optimisation of fitted flux distributions and extrapolation of model outputs to cover a range of proton energies from 0.1 MeV to 1 GeV. The model provides outputs in terms of mission cumulative fluence, maximum event fluence and peak flux for both solar maximum and solar minimum periods. A new method for describing maximum event fluence and peak flux outputs in terms of 1-in-x-year SPEs is also described. SAPPHIRE proton model outputs are compared with previous models including CREME96, ESP-PSYCHIC and the JPL model. Low energy outputs are compared to SEP data from ACE/EPAM whilst high energy outputs are compared to a new model based on GLEs detected by Neutron Monitors (NMs)., 37 pages, 17 figures

The physical processes affecting the dynamics of the Earth’s particle radiation environment are reviewed along with scientific and engineering models developed for its description. The emphasis is on models that are either operational engineering models or models presently under development for this purpose. Three components of the radiation environment, i.e., galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), solar energetic particles (SEPs) and trapped radiation, are considered separately. In the case of SEP models, we make a distinction between statistical flux/fluence models and those aimed at forecasting events. Models of the effects of particle radiation on the atmosphere are also reviewed. Further, we summarize the main features of the models and discuss the main outstanding issues concerning the models and their possible use in operational space weather forecasting. We emphasize the need for continuing the development of physics-based models of the Earth’s particle radiation environment, and their validation with observational data, until the models are ready to be used for nowcasting and/or forecasting the dynamics of the environment.

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10 - a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 R E on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with K p by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations. © R.B. Horne et al., Published by EDP Sciences 2013. ispartof: Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate vol:3 status: published

SEPServer is a three-year collaborative project funded by the seventh framework programme (FP7-SPACE) of the European Union. The objective of the project is to provide access to state-of-the-art observations and analysis tools for the scientific community on solar energetic particle (SEP) events and related electromagnetic (EM) emissions. The project will eventually lead to better understanding of the particle acceleration and transport processes at the Sun and in the inner heliosphere. These processes lead to SEP events that form one of the key elements of space weather. In this paper we present the first results from the systematic analysis work performed on the following datasets: SOHO/ERNE, SOHO/EPHIN, ACE/EPAM, Wind/WAVES and GOES X-rays. A catalogue of SEP events at 1 AU, with complete coverage over solar cycle 23, based on high-energy (~68-MeV) protons from SOHO/ERNE and electron recordings of the events by SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM are presented. A total of 115 energetic particle events have been identified and analysed using velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) for protons and time-shifting analysis (TSA) for electrons and protons in order to infer the SEP release times at the Sun. EM observations during the times of the SEP event onset have been gathered and compared to the release time estimates of particles. Data from those events that occurred during the European day-time, i.e., those that also have observations from ground-based observatories included in SEPServer, are listed and a preliminary analysis of their associations is presented. We find that VDA results for protons can be a useful tool for the analysis of proton release times, but if the derived proton path length is out of a range of 1 AU

[1] We present plasma wave and particle data from the CRRES satellite during three case studies to investigate the viability of a local stochastic electron acceleration mechanism to relativistic energies driven by resonant interactions with whistler mode chorus. We first consider a strong geomagnetic storm that contains prolonged substorm activity during its 3-day recovery phase. The recovery phase is characterized by electron injections at subrelativistic energies, enhanced whistler mode chorus amplitudes, and a gradual increase in the flux of relativistic electrons (E > 1 MeV) over the entire outer zone, with fluxes exceeding the prestorm level by an order of magnitude in the region 3.5 < L < 4.5. We next consider a strong geomagnetic storm that contains very little substorm activity during its 3-day recovery phase. Here the recovery phase is characterized by a lack of sustained electron injections at subrelativistic energies, a low level of chorus amplitudes, and a net reduction in the flux of relativistic electrons in the outer zone. Finally, we examine a period of prolonged substorm activity in the absence of a significant storm signature, as measured by Dst. This period is characterized by electron injections at subrelativistic energies, enhanced chorus amplitudes, and a gradual increase in the flux of relativistic electrons in the region 4 < L < 6.5. These results suggest that the gradual acceleration of electrons to relativistic energies seen on a timescale of days during geomagnetic storms can be effective only when there are periods of prolonged substorm activity following the main phase of the geomagnetic storm. Furthermore, gradual electron acceleration to relativistic energies can be obtained during periods of prolonged substorm activity in the absence of a significant storm signature as indicated by Dst. The case studies show that the acceleration mechanism is confined to the region outside of the plasmapause and occurs in the presence of enhanced chorus waves. These results suggest that a local acceleration mechanism involving the energization of a seed population of electrons with energies of the order of a few hundred keV to relativistic energies by wave-particle interactions involving whistler mode chorus contributes to the reformation of the relativistic outer zone population following prolonged substorm activity.

[1] Relativistic (> 1 MeV) 'killer electrons' are frequently generated in the Earth's inner magnetosphere during the recovery phase of a typical magnetic storm. We test the hypothesis that the energization of electrons takes place by means of stochastic gyroresonant interaction between lower-energy (several 100 keV) seed electrons and whistler-mode chorus waves. We develop a model kinetic equation for the electron energy distribution, and utilize both electron and whistler-mode wave data at L=4 for a typical geomagnetic storm (on October 9, 1990) from instruments carried on the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES). Our model solutions are found to match well with the CRRES profiles of the electron flux. We conclude that the mechanism of stochastic acceleration by whistler-mode turbulence is a viable candidate for generating killer electrons, not only for the storm considered, but for similar storms with a several-day recovery phase containing prolonged substorm activity.