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This paper shows the impact on global cooling demand of moving from a 1.5ºC to 2.0ºC temperature increase. African countries have the highest increase in cooling requirements. The United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Norway (traditionally unprepared for extreme heat) will suffer the largest relative cooling demand surges.

Open-source intelligence is a rapidly expanding area of the security and intelligence industry, involving the collection of internet located open data from various sources, turning that data into actionable intelligence, which is reused where possible and relevant. While creating or processing the raw input data capturing and managing the corresponding provenance information, e.g., workflow, state, raw evidence, reports, and summaries, that simplifies its retrieval and reuse is essential. In comparison, scientific workflows and tools that support them are routinely used in the majority of academic research disciplines, managing diverse sets of data resources and their provenance. Based on the techniques established within the academic community, we have developed a system for managing this open-source intelligence data and associated provenance information. This will enhance the efficiency of retrieving stored data products and reusing them to support intelligence-led security decision-making. The open-source intelligence company partnered within this project has an operational envelope that includes collecting and analyzing personal subject information. Therefore, they must understand the scope of their data holdings appropriately, especially in light of obligations under the General Data Protection Regulation. The system developed allows for tracking requests for intelligence products, ownership of the collection, analysis and generation of intelligence briefs, and tracking the delivery of those final products to the customer for future billing. This adds further layers of efficiency to operations and hence reduces the costs of producing intelligence products.

Recent extreme weather across the globe highlights the need to understand the potential for more extreme events in the present-day, and how such events may change with global warming. We present a methodology for more efficiently sampling extremes in future climate projections. As a proof-of-concept, we examine the UK’s most recent set of national Climate Projections (UKCP18). UKCP18 includes a 15-member perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of coupled global simulations, providing a range of climate projections incorporating uncertainty in both internal variability and forced response. However, this ensemble is too small to adequately sample extremes with very high return periods, which are of interest to policy-makers and adaptation planners. To better understand the statistics of these events, we use distributed computing to run three 1000-member initial-condition ensembles with the atmosphere-only HadAM4 model at 60km resolution on volunteers’ computers, taking boundary conditions from three distinct future extreme winters within the UKCP18 ensemble. We find that the magnitude of each winter extreme is captured within our ensembles, and that two of the three ensembles are conditioned towards producing extremes by the boundary conditions. Our ensembles contain several extremes that would only be expected to be sampled by a UKCP18 PPE of over 500 members, which would be prohibitively expensive with current supercomputing resource. The most extreme winters we simulate exceed those within UKCP18 by 0.85 K and 37% of the present-day average for UK winter means of daily maximum temperature and precipitation respectively. As such, our ensembles contain a rich set of multivariate, spatio-temporally and physically coherent samples of extreme winters with wide-ranging potential applications.

2015 saw the strongest El Niño event in the historical record, resulting in extreme drought conditions in Brazil. As drought conditions may also lead to greater fire danger, this study uses the 2015 fire in Brazil as a case study to examine whether and to what extent human-induced climate change has contributed to the fire weather conditions in the Cerrado and the southern Amazonia transitional forests known as the Arc of deforestation. Our results show that anthropogenic climate change is indeed a driver of meteorological conditions conducive to strong fire weather in these two regions, measured by fire weather index (FWI), especially on shorter timescales of daily and weekly. The anthropogenic climate change signal of FWI on short timescales corresponds to a similar order of increase in the FWI sub-indices (initial spread index and fine fuel moisture code) that can rapidly change due to the influence of the instantaneous weather conditions. For both regions the changes in fire weather in response to anthropogenic climate change are dominated by the combination of temperature and relative humidity responses. High FWI is more likely to occur under El Niño conditions, less likely under La Niña conditions, although the impacts of El Niño vs La Niña conditions are not symmetric when compared with El Niño Southern Oscillation neutral states. To summarize, both human-induced climate change and the presence of El Niño increased the likelihood of occurrence for the strong fire weather condition in 2015. Our results suggest that local and regional adaptation measures, such as improved drought monitoring and warning systems, could help with effective planning of fire prevention, firefighting actions, and disaster preparedness.

Load pattern categorization plays a significant role in enhancing the understanding of demand characteristics of different cohorts of energy customers on a distribution network. For a distribution network with embedded photovoltaic (PV) systems, it is also desirable to enumerate these premises since unreported PV installations can have a detrimental impact on voltage control, frequency regulation, and incur reverse power flows. In this paper, a holistic smart meter data analytics approach is proposed for classifying and characterizing the intra-day load curves of PV and non-PV households. Unlike existing studies based on raw time-series data, a series of interpretable and discriminating global and peak-period features are first developed to extract the physical information of load patterns. A two-step feature-based clustering is then applied to classify the load profiles of PV and non-PV households. A post-clustering quantitative compositional analysis is developed to characterize the energy use variability and compositional changes for each household. The proposed PV household identification method allows network owners to identify the existence of PV installations in a particular area for voltage control and ancillary service provision. In the longer term, effective load pattern categorization and post-clustering characterization can help better understand demand characteristics of different cohorts of customers, network utilization, and network-level changes in load growth.

Summer 2010 saw two simultaneous extremes linked by an atmospheric wave train: a record-breaking heatwave in Russia and severe floods in Pakistan. Here, we study this wave event using a large ensemble climate model experiment. First, we show that the circulation in 2010 reflected a recurrent wave train connecting the heatwave and flooding events. Second, we show that the occurrence of the wave train is favored by three drivers: (1) 2010 sea surface temperature anomalies increase the probability of this wave train by a factor 2-to-4 relative to the model’s climatology, (2) early-summer soil moisture deficit in Russia not only increases the probability of local heatwaves, but also enhances rainfall extremes over Pakistan by forcing an atmospheric wave response, and (3) high-latitude land warming favors wave-train occurrence and therefore rainfall and heat extremes. These findings highlight the complexity and synergistic interactions between different drivers, reconciling some seemingly contradictory results from previous studies.

Attribution of an extreme magnitude 1-day rainfall event in Hobart is inhibited by small sample size. For moderate magnitude Hobart daily rainfall extremes, models suggest that the associated extratropical lows will deliver more rainfall with weaker pressure anomalies in a warmer world.

Changing climate conditions impact ecosystem dynamics and have local to global impacts on water and carbon cycles. Many processes in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are parameterized, and the unknown/unknowable parameter values introduce uncertainty that has rarely been quantified in projections of forced changes. In this study, we identify processes and parameters that introduce the largest uncertainties in the vegetation state simulated by the DVM Top‐down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) coupled to a regional climate model. We adjust parameters simultaneously in an ensemble of equilibrium vegetation simulations and use statistical emulation to explore sensitivities to, and interactions among, parameters. We find that vegetation distribution is most sensitive to parameters related to carbon allocation and competition. Using a suite of statistical emulators, we identify regions of parameter space that reduce the error in modeled forest cover by 31±9%. We then generate large initial atmospheric condition ensembles with 10 improved DVM parameterizations under preindustrial, contemporary, and future climate conditions to assess uncertainty in the forced response due to parameterization. We find that while most parameterizations agree on the direction of future vegetation transitions in the western United States, the magnitude varies considerably: for example, in the northwest coast the expansion of broadleaf trees and corresponding decline of needleleaf trees ranges from 4 to 28% across 10 DVM parameterizations under projected future climate conditions. We demonstrate that model parameterization contributes to uncertainty in vegetation transition and carbon cycle feedback under nonstationary climate conditions, which has important implications for carbon stocks, ecosystem services, and climate feedback.

Predicting the electricity demand of new supermarkets will help with design, planning, and future energy management. Instead of creating complex site-specific thermal engineering models, simplified statistical energy prediction models as we propose can be useful to energy managers. We have designed and implemented a data-driven method to predict the ‘electricity daily load profile’ (EDLP) for new stores. Our preliminary work exploits a data-set of hourly electricity meter readings for 196 UK supermarkets from 2012 to 2015. Our method combines the most similar stores on a feature space (floor area split by usage such as general merchandise, food retail and offices and geographical location) to obtain a prediction of the EDLP of a new store. Computational experiments were performed separately for subsets of supermarkets that consume only electricity, both electricity and gas, and by season. The best results were obtained when predicting Summer EDLPs with stores using electricity only. In this case, the average Manhattan difference and the percentage difference are 234 kWh and 16%, respectively. We aim to develop an application tool for supermarket energy managers to automatically generate EDLP for potential new stores. EPSRC Impact Acceleration Account - University of Oxford EP/R511742/1

The simultaneous occurrence of extremely wet winters at multiple locations in the same region can contribute to widespread flooding and associated socio‐economic losses. However, the spatial extent of precipitation extremes (i.e., the area in which nearby locations experience precipitation extremes simultaneously) and its future changes are largely overlooked in climate assessments. Employing new multi‐thousand‐year climate model simulations, we show that under both 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C warming scenarios, wintertime total precipitation extreme extents would increase over about 80%–90% of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (i.e., of the latitude band 28°–78°N). Stabilizing at 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C would reduce the average magnitude of the increase by 1.7–2 times. According to the climate model, the increased extents are caused by increases in precipitation intensity rather than changes in the spatial organization of the events. Relatively small percentage increases in precipitation intensities (e.g., by 4%) can drive disproportionately larger, by 1–2 orders of magnitude, growth in the spatial extents (by 93%).

The UK has centered itself in the global race to mitigate the impacts of climate change with ambitious plans announced in 2019, committing to the elimination of the UK's net contribution to greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. These targets will require a transition of a historically inelastic energy system within a closing window of time. Our paper presents a whole system approach which argues that decentralized and distributed energy resources operating at grid-edge need an agile trial framework with multi-perspective and experienced stakeholders to develop balanced and well-supported network flexibility services. Incubating these new grid-edge network services require innovative market, operators and digital infrastructure, particularly at local scales. Based on preliminary findings from a UK perspective, Project LEO, we propose a framework around the restructuring of local energy systems which reduce uncertainty through an innovative 'ecosystem' that gives room to failure while minimizing risk to extract value and learnings.

Weather forecasts rely heavily on general circulation models of the atmosphere and other components of the Earth system. National meteorological and hydrological services and intergovernmental organizations, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), provide routine operational forecasts on a range of spatio-temporal scales by running these models at high resolution on state-of-the-art high-performance computing systems. Such operational forecasts are very demanding in terms of computing resources. To facilitate the use of a weather forecast model for research and training purposes outside the operational environment, ECMWF provides a portable version of its numerical weather forecast model, OpenIFS, for use by universities and other research institutes on their own computing systems. In this paper, we describe a new project (OpenIFS@home) that combines OpenIFS with a citizen science approach to involve the general public in helping conduct scientific experiments. Volunteers from across the world can run OpenIFS@home on their computers at home, and the results of these simulations can be combined into large forecast ensembles. The infrastructure of such distributed computing experiments is based on our experience and expertise with the climateprediction.net (https://www.climateprediction.net/, last access: 1 June 2021) and weather@home systems. In order to validate this first use of OpenIFS in a volunteer computing framework, we present results from ensembles of forecast simulations of Tropical Cyclone Karl from September 2016 studied during the NAWDEX field campaign. This cyclone underwent extratropical transition and intensified in mid-latitudes to give rise to an intense jet streak near Scotland and heavy rainfall over Norway. For the validation we use a 2000-member ensemble of OpenIFS run on the OpenIFS@home volunteer framework and a smaller ensemble of the size of operational forecasts using ECMWF's forecast model in 2016 run on the ECMWF supercomputer with the same horizontal resolution as OpenIFS@home. We present ensemble statistics that illustrate the reliability and accuracy of the OpenIFS@home forecasts and discuss the use of large ensembles in the context of forecasting extreme events.

Weather forecasts rely heavily on general circulation models of the atmosphere and other components of the Earth system. National meteorological and hydrological services and intergovernmental organisations, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), provide routine operational forecasts on a range of spatio-temporal scales, by running these models in high resolution on state-of-the-art high-performance computing systems. Such operational forecasts are very demanding in terms of computing resources. To facilitate the use of a weather forecast model for research and training purposes outside the operational environment, ECMWF provides a portable version of its numerical weather forecast model, OpenIFS, for use by universities and other research institutes on their own computing systems. In this paper, we describe a new project (OpenIFS@home) that combines OpenIFS with a citizen science approach to involve the general public in helping conduct scientific experiments. Volunteers from across the world can run OpenIFS@home on their computers at home and the results of these simulations can be combined into large forecast ensembles. The infrastructure of such distributed computing experiments is based on our experience and expertise with the climateprediction.net and weather@home systems. In order to validate this first use of OpenIFS in a volunteer computing framework, we present results from ensembles of forecast simulations of tropical cyclone Karl from September 2016, studied during the NAWDEX field campaign. This cyclone underwent extratropical transition and intensified in mid-latitudes to give rise to an intense jet-streak near Scotland and heavy rainfall over Norway. For the validation we use a two thousand member ensemble of OpenIFS run on the OpenIFS@home volunteer framework and a smaller ensemble of the size of operational forecasts using ECMWF’s forecast model in 2016 run on the ECMWF supercomputer with the same horizontal resolution as OpenIFS@home. We present ensemble statistics that illustrate the reliability and accuracy of the OpenIFS@home forecasts as well as discussing the use of large ensembles in the context of forecasting extreme events.

Summer 2010 was characterized by two contemporaneous extreme events: the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood. Several studies have shown a link between the two events, and Quasi-Resonant Amplification (QRA) has been suggested as an atmosphere-dynamic mechanism leading to the anomalous wavy circulation pattern which connected both extremes. Here, we aim at reproducing the 2010 circulation conditions in the Northern Hemisphere by obtaining a large ensemble of simulations from the Weather@home project within climateprediction.net (CPDN). We identify those ensemble members exhibiting a specific latitudinal temperature profile characterised by amplified high-latitude land warming (QRA - fingerprint) and investigate their surface temperature and upper level circulation properties. We show that when the QRA - fingerprint is present, the mid-latitude circulation bears similar characteristics to those observed in the 2010 summer: hot temperatures over European Russia and a wavy pattern in the upper-tropospheric meridional winds. As temperature profiles are projected to become increasingly similar to the QRA-fingerprint under future emission scenarios, these results provide further evidence that high latitude warming might favour persistent surface weather in the mid-latitudes.

For public, scientists and policy-makers, it is important to know to what extent human-induced climate change played (or did not play) a role behind changing risks of extreme weather events. Probabilistic event attribution (PEA) can provide scientific information regarding this association and reveal whether and to what extent external drivers of climate change have influenced the probability of high-impact weather events. To date, most of the PEA-based studies have focused on extreme events of mid-latitudes and predominantly events that have occurred in the developed countries. Developing countries located at the tropical monsoon regions are underrepresented in this field of research, despite that fact that these countries are highly climate vulnerable, often experience extreme weather events that cause severe damages and have the least capacity to adapt. Bangladesh, a South Asian country with tropical monsoon climate, is a hotspot of climate change impacts as it is vulnerable to a combination of increasing challenges from record-breaking temperatures, extreme rainfall events, more intense river floods, tropical cyclones, and rising sea levels. The unique geographical location of this country particularly exposes it to high risks of flooding and landslides caused by heavy rainfall events. Observation based studies indicate that the frequency of high-intensity rainfall events may have already increased, with significant repercussions for agriculture, health, ecosystems and economic development.Using high resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from weather@home, here we quantify the risks of extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under pre-industrial, present-day and future climate scenarios of the Paris Agreement temperature targets of 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Additionally, we assess the risks under greenhouse gas (GHG)-only climate scenario where anthropogenic aerosols are reduced to pre-industrial levels. In order to test the robustness of the RCM results, available four atmosphere only global circulation model (AGCM) simulations from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project are analysed. This enabled for the first time, a multi-model assessment of the changing risks of extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh considering anthropogenic climate change drivers.Findings suggest that both a 1.5°C and 2.0°C warmer world is poised to experience increased seasonal mean and, to a lesser extent, increased extreme rainfall events. The risk of a 1 in 100 year rainfall event under current climate condition has already increased significantly compared with pre-industrial levels. Substantial reduction in the impacts resulting from 1.5°C compared with 2°C warming is reported in this study; however the difference is spatially and temporally variable across Bangladesh. This paper highlights that reduction in the anthropogenic aerosols play an important role in determining the overall future climate change impacts; by exacerbating the effects of GHG induced global warming and thereby increasing the rainfall intensity. The policy-makers therefore need to take stronger climate actions to avoid impacts of 2°C warmer world and consider future changes in the risks of extreme rainfall events in the face of changeable GHG and aerosol impacts.

A very large ensemble is used to identify subgrid-scale parameter settings for the HadCM3 model that are capable of best simulating the ocean state over the recent past (1980–2010). A simple particle filtering technique based upon the agreement of basin mean sea surface temperature (SST) and upper 700-m ocean heat content with EN3 observations is applied to an existing perturbed physics ensemble with initial conditions perturbations. A single set of subgrid-scale parameter values was identified from the wide range of initial parameter sets that gave the best agreement with ocean observations for the period studied. The parameter set, different from the standard model parameters, has a transient climate response of 1.68 K. The selected parameter set shows an improved agreement with EN3 decadal-mean SST patterns and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26°N as measured by the Rapid Climate Change (RAPID) array. Particle filtering techniques as demonstrated here could have a useful role in improving the starting point for traditional model-tuning exercises in coupled climate models.

The impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and anthropogenic greenhouse gases on the likelihood of extreme drought occurring in the central United States in the year 2012 were investigated using large-ensemble simulations from a global atmospheric climate model. Two sets of experiments were conducted. In the first, the simulated hydroclimate of 2012 was compared to a baseline period (1986–2014) to investigate the impact of SSTs. In the second, the hydroclimate in a world with 2012-level anthropogenic forcing was compared to five “counterfactual” versions of a 2012 world under preindustrial forcing. SST anomalies in 2012 increased the simulated likelihood of an extreme summer precipitation deficit (e.g., the deficit with a 2% exceedance probability) by a factor of 5. The likelihood of an extreme summer soil moisture deficit increased by a similar amount, due in great part to a large spring soil moisture deficit carrying over into summer. An anthropogenic impact on precipitation was detectable in the simulations, doubling the likelihood of what would have been a rainfall deficit with a 2% exceedance probability under preindustrial-level forcings. Despite this reduction in rainfall, summer soil moisture during extreme drought was essentially unaffected by anthropogenic forcing because of 1) evapotranspiration declining roughly one-to-one with a decrease in precipitation due to severe water supply constraint and despite higher evaporative demand and 2) a decrease in stomatal conductance, and therefore a decrease in potential transpiration, with higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Predicting the electricity consumption of proposed new supermarkets is helpful to design and plan future energy management. Instead of creating complex site-specific thermal engineering models, data-driven energy prediction models can be useful to energy managers. We have designed and implemented a data-driven method to predict the future ’electricity daily load profile’ (EDLP) of new supermarkets using historical EDLPs of existing supermarkets of the same type. The supermarket features used for the prediction are 10 types of floor areas divided by usage ( m 2 ) and its location. Four data-driven regression models are used and compared to predict EDLPs: Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, k-Nearest Neighbours and OLS. Prediction computational experiments were performed over 1-h electricity readings of 213 UK supermarkets gathered during six years. Prediction error mainly varies between 12 and 20% depending on method, year, supermarket type, and division of the data (season or temperature intervals). EDLPs computed over warm periods are better predicted than over cold periods and supermarkets only with electricity are better predicted than supermarkets with electricity and gas. The three features with more weight in the prediction are Food, Chilled produce and Cafeteria areas. The limitations of machine learning methods to solve this problem are discussed.

The year 2014 broke the record for the warmest yearly average temperature in Europe. Attributing how much this was due to anthropogenic climate change and how much it was due to natural variability is a challenging question but one that is important to address. In this study, we compare four event attribution methods. We look at the risk ratio (RR) associated with anthropogenic climate change for this event, over the whole European region, as well as its spatial distribution. Each method shows a very strong anthropogenic influence on the event over Europe. However, the magnitude of the RR strongly depends on the definition of the event and the method used. Across Europe, attribution over larger regions tended to give greater RR values. This highlights a major source of sensitivity in attribution statements and the need to define the event to analyze on a case-by-case basis.

Cloud computing is a mature technology that has already shown benefits for a wide range of academic research domains that, in turn, utilize a wide range of application design models. In this paper, we discuss the use of cloud computing as a tool to improve the range of resources available for climate science, presenting the evaluation of two different climate models. Each was customized in a different way to run in public cloud computing environments (hereafter cloud computing) provided by three different public vendors: Amazon, Google and Microsoft. The adaptations and procedures necessary to run the models in these environments are described. The computational performance and cost of each model within this new type of environment are discussed, and an assessment is given in qualitative terms. Finally, we discuss how cloud computing can be used for geoscientific modelling, including issues related to the allocation of resources by funding bodies. We also discuss problems related to computing security, reliability and scientific reproducibility. European Regional Development Fund | Ref. ED431C 2017/64-GRC Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. RYC-2013-14560

This study investigates the future changes in dangerous extreme precipitation event in South America, using the multi-model ensemble simulations from the HAPPI experiments. The risks of dangerous extreme precipitation events occurrence, and changes in area and population exposure are quantified. Our results show that the likelihood of dangerous extreme precipitation increases in large parts of South America under future warming; changes in extreme precipitation are nonlinear with increasing global mean temperatures; and exposure plays a minor role compared to hazard. In all the models, limiting warming to 1.5 °C as opposed to 2 °C shows a general reduction in both area and population exposure to dangerous extreme precipitation throughout South America. The southeast region of South America exhibited the highest multi-model median percentage of avoided area exposure at 13.3%, while the southwest region shows the lowest percentage at 3.1%. Under all shared socioeconomic pathways, South America Monsoon region and southern South America region yielded the highest multi-model median percentage of avoided population exposure (>10%). The strong spatial heterogeneity in projected changes in all the models highlights the importance of considering location-specific information when designing adaptation measures and investing in disaster preparedness.

During July 2017, an unprecedentedly intense heat wave struck Central-Eastern China, resulting in drastically-increased human morbidity/mortality, steeply-reduced agriculture productivity, and serious shortage of electricity and water supply (China Climate Bulletin of 2017). Many meteorological stations registered 15–25 hot days (daily maximum temperature over 35°C), and some even had their record-high July temperatures, such as a new record of 40.9°C amongst historical observations since 1873 in Xu-Jia-Hui station in Shanghai (China Climate Bulletin of 2017). The China Meteorological Administration issued 10 high-level warnings against hot weather during 21st–25th July. Such unprecedentedly frequent alarms within only 5 days attracted intense scrutiny from policy-makers, media, and the public on the relationship between this heat wave and global warming. Previous studies usually conducted attribution analyses on seasonal warmth in Central-Eastern China (e.g. the 2013 record-breaking summer, Sun et al. 2014), leaving attribution statements for short-term (synoptic) hot extremes sparsely reported. This study therefore attempts to answer whether and to what extent anthropogenic warming has increased the likelihood of 5-day heat waves as hot or hotter than the 21st–25th July 2017 case over Central-Eastern China.

This study investigates the potential influences of anthropogenic forcings and natural variability on the risk of summer extreme temperatures over China. We use three multi-thousand-member ensemble simulations with different forcings (with or without anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions) to evaluate the human impact, and with sea surface temperature patterns from three different years around the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 2015/16 event (years 2014, 2015 and 2016) to evaluate the impact of natural variability. A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used to fit the ensemble results. Based on these model results, we find that, during the peak of ENSO (2015), daytime extreme temperatures are smaller over the central China region compared to a normal year (2014). During 2016, the risk of nighttime extreme temperatures is largely increased over the eastern coastal region. Both anomalies are of the same magnitude as the anthropogenic influence. Thus, ENSO can amplify or counterbalance (at a regional and annual scale) anthropogenic effects on extreme summer temperatures over China. Changes are mainly due to changes in the GEV location parameter. Thus, anomalies are due to a shift in the distributions and not to a change in temperature variability.

Volunteer or crowd computing is becoming increasingly popular for solving complex research problems from an increasingly diverse range of areas. The majority of these have been built using the Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing (BOINC) platform, which provides a range of different services to manage all computation aspects of a project. The BOINC system is ideal in those cases where not only does the research community involved need low-cost access to massive computing resources but also where there is a significant public interest in the research being done.We discuss the way in which cloud services can help BOINC-based projects to deliver results in a fast, on demand manner. This is difficult to achieve using volunteers, and at the same time, using scalable cloud resources for short on demand projects can optimize the use of the available resources. We show how this design can be used as an efficient distributed computing platform within the cloud, and outline new approaches that could open up new possibilities in this field, using Climateprediction.net (http://www.climateprediction.net/) as a case study.

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase the frequency of extreme weather events in future. Previous studies have robustly shown how and where climate change has already changed the risks of weather extremes. However, developing countries have been somewhat underrepresented in these studies, despite high vulnerability and limited capacities to adapt. How additional global warming would affect the future risks of extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh needs to be addressed to limit adverse impacts. Our study focuses on understanding and quantifying the relative risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under the Paris Agreement temperature goals of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels. In particular, we investigate the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on these risks given their likely future reduction and resulting amplification of global warming. Using large ensemble regional climate model simulations from weather@home under different forcing scenarios, we compare the risks of rainfall events under pre-industrial (natural), current (actual), 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C warmer and greenhouse gas only (anthropogenic aerosols removed) conditions. We find that the risk of a 1 in 100 year rainfall event has already increased significantly compared with pre-industrial levels across parts of Bangladesh, with additional increases likely for 1.5 and 2.0 degree warming (of up to 5.5 times higher, with an uncertainty range of 3.5 to 7.8 times). Impacts were observed during both the pre-monsoon and monsoon periods, but were spatially variable across the country in terms of the level of impact. Results also show that reduction in anthropogenic aerosols plays an important role in determining the overall future climate change impacts; by exacerbating the effects of GHG induced global warming and thereby increasing the rainfall intensity. We highlight that the net aerosol effect varies from region to region within Bangladesh, which leads to different outcomes of aerosol reduction on extreme rainfall statistics, and must therefore be considered in future risk assessments. Whilst there is a substantial reduction in the impacts resulting from 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C warming, the difference is spatially and temporally variable, specifically with respect to seasonal extreme rainfall events.

In August 2017 Bangladesh faced one of its worst river flooding events in recent history. This paper presents, for the first time, an attribution of this precipitation-induced flooding to anthropogenic climate change from a combined meteorological and hydrological perspective. Experiments were conducted with three observational datasets and two climate models to estimate changes in the extreme 10-day precipitation event frequency over the Brahmaputra basin up to the present and, additionally, an outlook to 2 ∘C warming since pre-industrial times. The precipitation fields were then used as meteorological input for four different hydrological models to estimate the corresponding changes in river discharge, allowing for comparison between approaches and for the robustness of the attribution results to be assessed. In all three observational precipitation datasets the climate change trends for extreme precipitation similar to that observed in August 2017 are not significant, however in two out of three series, the sign of this insignificant trend is positive. One climate model ensemble shows a significant positive influence of anthropogenic climate change, whereas the other large ensemble model simulates a cancellation between the increase due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a decrease due to sulfate aerosols. Considering discharge rather than precipitation, the hydrological models show that attribution of the change in discharge towards higher values is somewhat less uncertain than in precipitation, but the 95 % confidence intervals still encompass no change in risk. Extending the analysis to the future, all models project an increase in probability of extreme events at 2 ∘C global heating since pre-industrial times, becoming more than 1.7 times more likely for high 10-day precipitation and being more likely by a factor of about 1.5 for discharge. Our best estimate on the trend in flooding events similar to the Brahmaputra event of August 2017 is derived by synthesizing the observational and model results: we find the change in risk to be greater than 1 and of a similar order of magnitude (between 1 and 2) for both the meteorological and hydrological approach. This study shows that, for precipitation-induced flooding events, investigating changes in precipitation is useful, either as an alternative when hydrological models are not available or as an additional measure to confirm qualitative conclusions. Besides this, it highlights the importance of using multiple models in attribution studies, particularly where the climate change signal is not strong relative to natural variability or is confounded by other factors such as aerosols.

WOS: 000432635500001, …

As the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) grows, systems are increasingly being monitored by arrays of sensors returning time-series data at ever-increasing 'volume, velocity and variety' (i.e. Industrial Big Data). An obvious use for these data is real-time systems condition monitoring and prognostic time to failure analysis (remaining useful life, RUL). (e.g. See white papers by Senseye.io, and output of the NASA Prognostics Center of Excellence (PCoE).) However, as noted by Agrawal and Choudhary 'Our ability to collect "big data" has greatly surpassed our capability to analyze it, underscoring the emergence of the fourth paradigm of science, which is data-driven discovery.' In order to fully utilize the potential of Industrial Big Data we need data-driven techniques that operate at scales that process models cannot. Here we present a prototype technique for data-driven anomaly detection to operate at industrial scale. The method generalizes to application with almost any multivariate dataset based on independent ordinations of repeated (bootstrapped) partitions of the dataset and inspection of the joint distribution of ordinal distances., Comment: 9 pages; 11 figures

Atmospheric modes of variability relevant for extreme temperature and precipitation events are evaluated in models currently being used for extreme event attribution. A 100 member initial condition ensemble of the global circulation model HadAM3P is compared with both the multi-model ensemble from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the CMIP5 atmosphere-only counterparts (AMIP5). The use of HadAM3P allows for huge ensembles to be computed relatively fast, thereby providing unique insights into the dynamics of extremes. The analysis focuses on mid Northern Latitudes (primarily Europe) during winter, and is compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis. The tri-modal Atlantic eddy-driven jet distribution is remarkably well captured in HadAM3P, but not so in the CMIP5 or AMIP5 multi-model mean, although individual models fare better. The well known underestimation of blocking in the Atlantic region is apparent in CMIP5 and AMIP5, and also, to a lesser extent, in HadAM3P. Pacific blocking features are well produced in all modeling initiatives. Blocking duration is biased towards models reproducing too many short-lived events in all three modelling systems. Associated storm tracks are too zonal over the Atlantic in the CMIP5 and AMIP5 ensembles, but better simulated in HadAM3P with the exception of being too weak over Western Europe. In all cases, the CMIP5 and AMIP5 performances were almost identical, suggesting that the biases in atmospheric modes considered here are not strongly coupled to SSTs, and perhaps other model characteristics such as resolution are more important. For event attribution studies, it is recommended that rather than taking statistics over the entire CMIP5 or AMIP5 available models, only models capable of producing the relevant dynamical phenomena be employed. ISSN:0930-7575 ISSN:1432-0894

By using smart meters, more data about how businesses use energy is becoming available to energy retailers (providers). This is enabling innovation in the structure and type of tariffs on offer in the energy market. We have applied Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, and Naive Bayesian Classifiers to a data set of the electrical power use by 12,000 businesses (in 44 sectors) to investigate predicting which businesses will gain or lose by switching between tariffs (a two-classes problem). We have used only three features of each company: their business sector, load profile category, and mean power use. We are particularly interested in the switch between a static tariff (fixed price or timeof-use) and a dynamic tariff (half-hourly pricing). We have extended the two-classes problem to include a price elasticity factor (a three-classes problem). We show how the classification error for the two- and three-classes problems varies with the amount of available data. Furthermore, we used Ordinary Least Squares and Support Vector Regression models to compute the exact values of the amount gained or lost by a business if it switched tariff types. Our analysis suggests that the machine learning classifiers required less data to reach useful performance levels than the regression models. 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://

Climateprediction.net has traditionally been an activity that requires a large amount of computing resources from its volunteer network, whilst allowing a time-frame of weeks to months for simulations to be returned for each project. However, there is an increasing trend of projects requiring results in shorter and shorter timescales. Under no project is this clearer than in the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative, where we are aiming to provide in near to real-time an answer to how anthropogenic climate change has altered the frequency of occurrence of a particular type of extreme weather event, either as it happens or as soon after as is practical. As such we need the ability to run simulations on alternate resources when volunteer resources will not provide results within the necessary timeframe. This paper describes a workflow to distribute ensembles of climateprediction.net simulations in the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud, to provide urgent compute capability for projects such as WWA. We propose a method of optimizing the use of cloud resources to minimize cost while maximising throughput. A case study is presented to provide a proof of concept of this methodology. As such, this is a clear example of beneficial utilisation of cloud resources to supplement those available through our volunteer community.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of integrated assessment models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments. Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slice experiments are proposed, each a decade in length; the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of the a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario.

The HiPerDNO project aims to develop new applications to enhance the operational capabilities of Distribution Network Operators (DNO). Their delivery requires an advanced computational strategy. This paper describes a High Performance Computing (HPC) platform developed for these applications whilst also being flexible enough to accommodate new ones emerging from the gradual introduction of smart metering in the Low Voltage (LV) networks (AMI: Advanced Metering Infrastructures). Security and reliability requirements for both data and computations are very stringent. Our proposed architecture would allow the deployment of computations and data access as services, thus achieving independence on the actual hardware and software technologies deployed, and hardening against malicious as well as accidental corruptions. Cost containment and reliance on proven technologies are also of paramount importance to DNOs. We suggest an architecture that fulfills these needs, which includes the following components for the HPC and Data Storage systems: • Hadoop Distributed File System • a federation of loosely coupled computational clusters • the PELICAN computational application framework

Grid computing enables the access of heterogeneous computational resources across a dynamic set of physical organisations seamlessly. A campus grid is an example of the grid solution which is located within a single administrative domain. In the majority of installations these enable connection of all institutionally owned computational resources, making them transparently available to appropriately registered members of staff. In this paper we introduce the design and implementation of a lightweight campus grid framework. It manages a set of heterogeneous computational resources, using virtual organisation based policies for each individual grid resource and enables user's to transparently access resources through a unified user-friendly interface. The proposed framework can discover, aggregate and broker all of these heterogeneous resources with low management costs that matches users’ requirements. With this framework, a campus grid enables university-wide, regional-wide, national and international grid resources become transparently available to university members through their university account without knowing how to access each individual resource. Such a framework allows scalable grid resource sharing, virtual organisation based resource management, dynamical and autonomous resource brokering with improved usability and manageability in a campus grid environment.

Cloud computing has been increasingly adopted by users and providers to promote a flexible, scalable and tailored access to computing resources. Nonetheless, the consolidation of this paradigm has uncovered some of its limitations. Initially devised by corporations with direct control over large amounts of computational resources, cloud computing is now being endorsed by organizations with limited resources or with a more articulated, less direct control over these resources. The challenge for these organizations is to leverage the benefits of cloud computing while dealing with limited and often widely distributed computing resources. This study focuses on the adoption of cloud computing by higher education institutions and addresses two main issues: flexible and on-demand access to a large amount of storage resources, and scalability across a heterogeneous set of cloud infrastructures. The proposed solutions leverage a federated approach to cloud resources in which users access multiple and largely independent cloud infrastructures through a highly customizable broker layer. This approach allows for a uniform authentication and authorization infrastructure, a fine-grained policy specification and the aggregation of accounting and monitoring. Within a loosely coupled federation of cloud infrastructures, users can access vast amount of data without copying them across cloud infrastructures and can scale their resource provisions when the local cloud resources become insufficient.

The OptIPuter microscopy demonstrator project has been designed to enable concurrent and remote usage of world-class electron microscopes located in Oxford and San Diego. The project has constructed a network consisting of microscopes and computational and data resources that are all connected by a dedicated network infrastructure using the UK Lightpath and US Starlight systems. Key science drivers include examples from both materials and biological science. The resulting system is now a permanent link between the Oxford and San Diego microscopy centres. This will form the basis of further projects between the sites and expansion of the types of systems that can be remotely controlled, including optical, as well as electron, microscopy. Other improvements will include the updating of the Microsoft cluster software to the high performance computing (HPC) server 2008, which includes the HPC basic profile implementation that will enable the development of interoperable clients.

The cloud computing ecosystem is in urgent need of effective and practical trust establishment schemes. Cloud customers currently lack approaches to effectively verify the genuine behaviours of cloud services. They can only blindly believe that the Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) are honest enough to not tamper with their data, while many others have avoided using the cloud entirely. Trust establishment schemes, such as cloud auditing and cloud attestation systems, lack controls and transparency over their trust building processes, which only blur the effectiveness of the proclaimed trustworthiness. We argue that these problems ultimately result from the CSPs' autocratic governance over all the activities inside the cloud. In this paper, we present a Separation-of-Powers (SoP) model by referencing the similar concepts from the discipline of the political philosophy. We define three independent roles to separate the powers of definition, enforcement, and inspection from the CSPs. These roles form the collaborative-restrictive relationship to facilitate trustworthy cloud services and achieve the balance-of-powers. We believe a model of this kind will open new opportunities for achieving trustworthy and open cloud ecosystem governance.

Changes in near surface air temperature (ΔT) in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing are expected to show spatial heterogeneity because energy and moisture fluxes are modulated by features of the landscape that are also heterogeneous at these spatial scales. Detecting statistically meaningful heterogeneity requires a combination of high spatial resolution and a large number of simulations. To investigate spatial variability of projected ΔT, we generated regional, high-resolution (25-km horizontal), large ensemble (100 members per year), climate simulations of western United States (US) for the periods 1985 – 2014 and 2030 – 2059, the latter with atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. Using the large ensemble, 95% confidence interval sizes for grid-cell-scale temperature responses were on the order of 0.1 °C, compared to 1 °C from a single ensemble member only. In both winter and spring, the snow-albedo feedback statistically explains roughly half of the spatial variability in 'T. Simulated decreases in albedo exceed 0.1 in places, with rates of change in T per 0.1 decrease in albedo ranging from 0.3 to 1.4 °C. In summer, ΔT pattern in the northwest US is correlated with the pattern of decreasing precipitation. In all seasons, changing lapse rates in the low-to-middle troposphere may account for up to 0.2 °C differences in warming across the western US. Near the coast, a major control of spatial variation is the differential warming between sea and land.

A new climate modelling project has been developed for regional climate simulation and the attribution of weather and climate extremes over Australia and New Zealand. The project, known as weather@home Australia-New Zealand, uses public volunteers' home computers to run a moderate-resolution global atmospheric model with a nested regional model over the Australasian region. By harnessing the aggregated computing power of home computers, weather@home is able to generate an unprecedented number of simulations of possible weather under various climate scenarios. This combination of large ensemble sizes with high spatial resolution allows extreme events to be examined with more robust estimates of uncertainty. This paper provides an overview of the weather@home Australia-New Zealand project, including initial evaluation of the regional model performance. The model is seen to be capable of resolving many climate features that are important for the Australian and New Zealand regions, including the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on driving natural climate variability. To date, 75 model simulations of the observed climate have been successfully integrated over the period 1985–2014 in a time-slice manner. In addition, multi-thousand member ensembles have also been generated for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015 under climate scenarios with and without the effect of human influences. All data generated by the project is freely available to the broader research community.

A succession of storms reaching Southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment’s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day effects of human influence on climate.

Within the Environmental 'omics community Bio-Linux is a widely used tool. This has the advantage of providing in a single deliverable package all necessary software and tools to support common analyses. With the growth in data volumes within the community and increasing constraints on user access and control over their own desktops an alternative delivery method of Bio-Linux and, in future, the Docker container environment is necessary. Within the EOS Cloud project we have constructed a Desktop as a Service system to centrally host virtual machines with these tools preconfigured and maintained. To enable efficient use of the resources we have enabled user controlled resource scaling so that users are able to utilise small scale VMs for task configuration and data manipulation and boost to a larger scale to run analysis applications all the while maintaining the user environment in a consistent manner. Alongside this within the project we have been developed tools to simplify the increasingly popular Docker software usage model. This includes ensure uniformity of behaviour between the host system and the running Docker container. Within the invitation only trial user community we identify two different exemplars groups and explain their usage and how the products and services developed within the project are useful for them. We conclude discussing the useful nature of Desktop as a Service, how it is of great benefit to the bioinformatics community but could also be of great use elsewhere, where the need for a stable user environment with applications already available that do not rely on local ICT support.