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Investigating how climate affects multiple consecutive crop growth stages is helpful to provide guidance for adopting appropriate agronomic practices. Based on the observed data from 51 agro-meteorological stations across China during 1981–2010, we qualified the spatio-temporal variability of eight consecutive phenological stages of rice [sowing (SD), emergence (ED), transplanting (TPD), tillering (TD), booting (BD), heading (HD), milk ripe (MRD), and maturity date (MD)] and the durations of three growth phases [vegetative growth phase (VGP), reproductive growth phase (RGP), and whole growth phase (WGP)]. We also explored the correlation and sensitivity of each of the growth phases to three climatic factors [i.e., mean temperature (Tmean), precipitation (PRE), and sunshine hours (SSH)]. We found that SD, ED, and TPD of single rice advanced by 0.22, 0.15, and 1.15 days 10a−1, while TD, BD, HD, MRD, and MD delayed by 0.26, 1.14, 0.66, 2.47, and 1.50 days 10a−1, respectively. For early rice, the dates of all the phenological stages advanced to different extents, except MRD. For late rice, SD, ED, BD, and MRD delayed, while dates of the other phenological stages advanced. The durations of VGP, RGP, and WGP prolonged for both single rice and early rice, but these shortened for late rice. Overall, the durations of three growth phases were negatively correlated with Tmean, but positively correlated with PRE and SSH during corresponding growth phase across rice cultivation region. Sensitivity analysis indicated that increases in temperature tended to reduce duration of single-rice and double-rice VGP. Increases in PRE tended to increase duration of late-rice RGP, and increases in SSH tended to increase duration of single-rice RGP. The results indicated that climate change during the past three decades had a negative impact on rice growth and development. However, the observed phenological changes indicated that agronomic practice with long seasonal cultivar has mitigated these adverse effects.

Global climate change results in more extreme temperature events, which poses a serious threat to wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP). Assessing the potential impact of temperature extremes on crop growth and yield is an important prerequisite for exploring crop adaptation measures to deal with changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during wheat sensitive period on grain yield at four representative sites over the NCP using Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model driven by the climate projections from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) during two future periods of 2031-2060 (2040S) and 2071-2100 (2080S) under societal development pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios. We found that extreme temperature stress had significantly negative impacts on wheat yield. However, increased rainfall and the elevated atmospheric CO

Climate change has had a considerable impact on potato production in Agro-Pastoral Ecotone (APE) in North China over the past several decades and it will continue to influence the growth of potato. Thus, understanding the impact of climate change on potato production is critical for future food security in this region. In this study, the calibrated APSIM-Potato model was used to assess the impact of future climate change on potato at Zhangbei (ZB) and Wuchuan (WC) experimental stations. The daily climate data were statistically downscaled from 32 global climate models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results showed that potato yield under rainfed condition at ZB site respectively increased by 7.3% and 6.7% in the 2030s, 25.8% and 21.8% in the 2060s and 44.7% and 51.9% in 2090s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Potato yield under irrigated condition at WC site increased respectively by 5.5%, 10.0% and 15.1% in the 2030s, 2060s and 2090s under RCP4.5 scenario and by 5.7%, 20.9% and 41.1% under RCP8.5 scenario. Both evapotranspiration and water use efficiency increased under future climate change. Based on the statistical analysis, 70% of the variation in potato yield under rainfed condition at ZB site and 50% of it under irrigated condition at WC site were driven by future climate change. We concluded that rainfed potato yield will be enhanced more by future climate change than irrigation system. Our study filled the knowledge gap in understanding the potential effects of future climate change on potato production under different water management measures, and will be useful in developing adaptable strategies to enhance potato yield in the APE region under future climate change.

Climate warming has and will continue to exert a significantly impact on crop phenology in the past and coming decades. Combining observed data of phenology and a crop growth model provides a good approach for quantitating the effects of climate warming and crop management on crop phenology. The purpose of this study is to determine the impacts of temperature change, sowing date (SD) adjustment and cultivar shift on maize phenology in northern China during 1981–2010. Results indicated that climate warming caused anthesis date (AD) and maturity date (MD) of maize to advance by 0.2–5.5 and 0.6–11.1 d/10a, respectively. Due to climate-driven changes in maize phenology, three growth periods of maize, i.e., vegetative growth period (VGP; from sowing to anthesis), reproductive growth period (RGP; from anthesis to maturity) and whole growth period (WGP; from sowing to maturity) shortened by 0.2–5.5, 0.4–5.6 and 0.6–11.1 d/10a, respectively. With SD adjustment (i.e., SD advancement), AD and MD occurred early by 0.5–2.6 and 0.1–3.4 d/10a, respectively. SD adjustment caused duration of VGP of maize to prolong. However, duration of RGP slightly shortened by 0.1–1.3 d/10a. Furthermore, due to cultivar shift, MD of maize significantly delayed by 4.9–12.2 d/10a. Durations of VGP, RGP and WGP of maize prolonged by 0.2–4.1, 1.6–8.4 and 4.3–11.8 d/10a, respectively. In conclusion, our results indicated that cultivar shift, to some extent, could mitigate the negative impact of climate warming on maize phenology.

Climate change would exert significantly impact on crop yield by altering crop growth and development processes. Therefore, to ensure food security, it is necessary to assess the response and adaptation of crop phenology to the natural (mainly climate change) and artificial (including sowing date (SD) change and cultivar shift) factors. In this study, using field data from 113 agro-meteorological experiment stations across China, along with the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) oryza model, we investigated the trends of rice phenology in relation to climate change and agronomic factors (i.e., SD change and cultivar shift) from 1981 to 2010. We found that flowering date (FD) and maturity date (MD) of single-rice were delayed by 0.3 and 1.4 days 10a−1, respectively, but FD and MD of double-rice were advanced by 0.7–0.8 and 0.2–1.1 days 10a−1, respectively. Climate change advanced FD and MD of rice at representative stations except FD of late-rice, and shortened length of rice growth period. SD change of rice mainly affected duration of vegetative growth phase (VGP, from SD to FD), but had no significant impact on duration of reproductive growth phase (RGP, from FD to MD). Cultivar shift delayed FD and MD of rice at all representative stations except late-rice at Lianhua. Moreover, cultivar shift prolonged the duration of rice RGP by 0.2–2.8 days 10a−1. Overall, the results suggested that rice phenology was adapting to ongoing climate change by SD change and adoption of cultivars with longer RGP. Therefore, crop phenological characteristics should be sufficiently taken into account to develop adaptation strategies in the future.

The land cover and management changes have strong feedbacks to climate through surface biophysical and biochemical processes. Agricultural phenology dynamic exerted measurable impacts on land surface properties, biophysical process and climate feedback in particular times at local/regional scale. But the responses of climate feedback through surface biophysical process to sowing date shift in the winter wheat ecosystem have been overlooked, especially at winter dormancy period. Considering the large cultivation area, unique surface property and phenology shift of winter wheat in the North China Plain, we first validated the SiBcrop model. Then, we used it to investigate the dynamics of leaf area index (LAI) and canopy temperature (Tc) under two planting date scenarios (Early Sowing: EP; Late Sowing: LP) of winter wheat at 10 selected stations. Finally, the surface energy budget was analyzed and interpreted. The results showed that the SiBcrop with a modified crop phenology scheme better simulated the seasonal dynamic of LAI, Tc, phenology, and surface heat fluxes. Earlier sowing date had higher LAI with earlier development than later sowing date. But the response of Tc to sowing date exhibited opposite patterns during the dormancy and active growth periods: EP led to higher Tc (0.05 K) than LP in the dormancy period and lower Tc (−0.2 K) in the growth period. The highest difference (0.6 K) between EP and LP happened at the time when wheat was sown in EP but wasn't in LP. The higher LAI captured more net radiation with lower surface albedo for warming, whist surface energy partitioning exerted cooling effect. The relative contributions of albedo-radiative process and partitioning-non-radiative process determined the climate effect of sowing date shift. The spatial pattern of the climate response to sowing date was influence by precipitation and air temperature. The study highlight that the climate effects of the sowing date shift in winter dormancy period are worthy of attention.

Our understanding of climate impacts and adaptations on crop growth and productivity can be accelerated by analyzing historical data over the past few decades. We used crop trial and climate data from 1981 to 2009 at 34 national agro-meteorological stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) of China to investigate the impacts of climate factors during different growth stages on the growth and yields of winter wheat, accounting for the adaptations such as shifts in sowing dates, cultivars, and agronomic management. Maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) during the growth period of winter wheat increased significantly, by 0.4 and 0.6 °C/decade, respectively, from 1981 to 2009, while solar radiation decreased significantly by 0.2 MJ/m2/day and precipitation did not change significantly. The trends in climate shifted wheat phenology significantly at 21 stations and affected wheat yields significantly at five stations. The impacts of Tmax and Tmin differed in different growth stages of winter wheat. Across the stations, during 1981–2009, wheat yields increased on average by 14.5% with increasing trends in Tmin over the whole growth period, which reduced frost damage, however, decreased by 3.0% with the decreasing trends in solar radiation. Trends in Tmax and precipitation had comparatively smaller impacts on wheat yields. From 1981 to 2009, climate trends were associated with a ≤ 30% (or ≤1.0% per year) wheat yield increase at 23 stations in eastern and southern parts of HHHP; however with a ≤ 30% (or ≤1.0% per year) reduction at 11 other stations, mainly in western part of HHHP. We also found that wheat reproductive growth duration increased due to shifts in cultivars and flowering date, and the duration was significantly and positively correlated with wheat yield. This study highlights the different impacts of Tmax and Tmin in different growth stages of winter wheat, as well as the importance of management (e.g. shift of sowing date) and cultivars shift in adapting to climate change in the major wheat production region.

Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world. This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to mean temperature for different growth stages. It also analyzed the impacts of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date adjustments on phenological events/phases of spring wheat in northern China (NC). The results showed that significant changes have occurred in spring wheat phenology in NC due to climate warming in the past 30 years. Specifically, the dates of anthesis and maturity of spring wheat advanced on average by 1.8 and 1.7 day (10 yr)−1. Moreover, while the vegetative growth period (VGP) shortened at most stations, the reproductive growth period (RGP) prolonged slightly at half of the investigated stations. As a result, the whole growth period (WGP) of spring wheat shortened at most stations. The findings from the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model simulated results for six representative stations further suggested that temperature rise generally shortened the spring wheat growth period in NC. Although the warming trend shortened the lengths of VGP, RGP, and WGP, the shift of new cultivars with high accumulated temperature requirements, to some extent, mitigated and adapted to the ongoing climate change. Furthermore, shifts in sowing date exerted significant impacts on the phenology of spring wheat. Generally, an advanced sowing date was able to lower the rise in mean temperature during the different growth stages (i.e., VGP, RGP, and WGP) of spring wheat. As a result, the lengths of the growth stages should be prolonged. Both measures (cultivar shift and sowing date adjustments) could be vital adaptation strategies of spring wheat to a warming climate, with potentially beneficial effects in terms of productivity.

Extensive studies had been conducted to investigate the impacts of climate change on maize growth and yield in recent decades; however, the dynamics of crop husbandry in response and adaptation to climate change were not taken into account. Based on field observations spanning from 1981 to 2009 at 167 agricultural meteorological stations across China, we found that solar radiation and temperature over the observed maize growth period had decreasing trends during 1981–2009, and maize yields were positively correlated with these climate variables in major production regions. The decreasing trends in solar radiation and temperature during maize growth period were mainly ascribed to the adoption of late maturity cultivars with longer reproductive growth period (RGP). The adoption of late maturing cultivars with longer RGP contributed substantially to grain yield increase during the last three decades. The climate trends during maize growth period varied among different production areas. During 1981–2009, decreases in mean temperature, precipitation and solar radiation over maize growth period jointly reduced yield most by 13.2–17.3% in southwestern China, by contrast in northwestern China increases in mean temperature, precipitation and solar radiation jointly increased yield most by 12.9–14.4%. Our findings highlight that the adaptations of maize production system to climate change through shifts of sowing date and genotypes are underway and should be taken into accounted when evaluating climate change impacts.

Using the detailed field experiment data from 1981 to 2009 at four representative agro-meteorological experiment stations in China, along with the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) rice-wheat model, we evaluated the impact of sowing/transplanting date on phenology and yield of rice-wheat rotation system (RWRS). We also disentangled the contributions of climate change, modern cultivars, sowing/transplanting density and fertilization management, as well as changes in each climate variables, to yield change in RWRS, in the past three decades. We found that change in sowing/transplanting date did not significantly affect rice and wheat yield in RWRS, although alleviated the negative impact of climate change to some extent. From 1981 to 2009, climate change jointly caused rice and wheat yield change by −17.4 to 1.5 %, of which increase in temperature reduced yield by 0.0–5.8 % and decrease in solar radiation reduced it by 1.5–8.7 %. Cultivars renewal, modern sowing/transplanting density and fertilization management contributed to yield change by 14.4–27.2, −4.7– −0.1 and 2.3–22.2 %, respectively. Our findings highlight that modern cultivars and agronomic management compensated the negative impacts of climate change and played key roles in yield increase in the past three decades.

As climate change could significantly influence crop phenology and subsequent crop yield, adaptation is a critical mitigation process of the vulnerability of crop growth and production to climate change. Thus, to ensure crop production and food security, there is the need for research on the natural (shifts in crop growth periods) and artificial (shifts in crop cultivars) modes of crop adaptation to climate change. In this study, field observations in 18 stations in North China Plain (NCP) are used in combination with Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Maize model to analyze the trends in summer maize phenology in relation to climate change and cultivar shift in 1981–2008. Apparent warming in most of the investigated stations causes early flowering and maturity and consequently shortens reproductive growth stage. However, APSIM-Maize model run for four representative stations suggests that cultivar shift delays maturity and thereby prolongs reproductive growth (flowering to maturity) stage by 2.4−3.7 day per decade (d 10a−1). The study suggests a gradual adaptation of maize production process to ongoing climate change in NCP via shifts in high thermal cultivars and phenological processes. It is concluded that cultivation of maize cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production and food security in the NCP study area and beyond.

The Simple Biosphere Model (SiB2) and the 2 × 2 km resolution National Land use/Land Cover database were used to investigate the effects of Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) on land surface energy balance and climate in Jilin Province, northeast China, from 1990 to 2005. The spatial patterns of the components of surface energy balance (i.e., net radiation (R n), latent heat (LH), sensible heat (SH), and albedo (α)) and climate (i.e., canopy temperature (T c), diurnal temperature range (DTR)), as well as the roles of land cover type in variations of energy balance and climate, were investigated. The results showed that there were general similar trends in R n, LH, SH, and α in the LUCC process. The spatial patterns of T c and DTR also showed consistent relationships with LUCC processes. Leaf area index (LAI) and canopy conductance (g c) were found to be the key factors in controlling the spatial patterns of the components of surface energy balance and T c. Using linear correlation method, the gaps of the components of surface energy balance were well-explained by the differences of LAI and g c, and R n had a better correlation with T c and DTR, in the process of LUCC. The surface energy partitioning of R n into LH and SH could not only dampen or strengthen the temperature difference, but also change the relative size of albedo-based R n when the albedo gap was small, between land cover types.

Weather and climate variability are predicted to impact food security by altering crop growth, phenology, and yield processes. Adaptation measures are critical for reducing future vulnerability of crop production to warming weather and climate variability. It is therefore vital to investigate the shifts in crop phenological processes in response to weather/climate variability. This study analyzes the trends in the dates of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) phenology in relation to average temperature of different growth stage and the adaptation of the crop to weather/climate variability in China. The results suggest that the phenological phases of winter wheat have specific regional patterns in China. There are also significant shifts in the dates of winter wheat phenology and the duration of the growth stages in the investigated 30-year period of 1980–2009. While the date of sowing winter wheat delays, the dates of post-winter phenological phases (e.g., heading and maturity dates) advances in most areas of China. Detailed analysis shows that the changes in the phenological phases of winter wheat are strongly related to temperature trends. Temporal trends in phenological phases of winter wheat are similar in characteristics to corresponding trends in temperature. Although warming weather and climate variability is the main driver of the changes in winter wheat phenology, temperature is lower than before in most of the investigated stations during the period from heading to maturity—mainly the grain-filling stage. This is mainly due to the early heading and maturity dates, which in turn not only prolong growth stages but also enhance productivity of winter wheat. This could be a vital adaptation strategy of winter wheat to warming weather with beneficial effects in terms of productivity.

The contributions of climate and land use change (LUCC) to hydrological change in Heihe River Basin (HRB), Northwest China were quantified using detailed climatic, land use and hydrological data, along with the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The results showed that for the 1980s, the changes in the basin hydrological change were due more to LUCC (74.5%) than to climate change (21.3%). While LUCC accounted for 60.7% of the changes in the basin hydrological change in the 1990s, climate change explained 57.3% of that change. For the 2000s, climate change contributed 57.7% to hydrological change in the HRB and LUCC contributed to the remaining 42.0%. Spatially, climate had the largest effect on the hydrology in the upstream region of HRB, contributing 55.8%, 61.0% and 92.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. LUCC had the largest effect on the hydrology in the middle-stream region of HRB, contributing 92.3%, 79.4% and 92.8% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Interestingly, the contribution of LUCC to hydrological change in the upstream, middle-stream and downstream regions and the entire HRB declined continually over the past 30 years. This was the complete reverse (a sharp increase) of the contribution of climate change to hydrological change in HRB.

With regard to global climate change due to increasing concentration in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), it is important to examine its potential impact on crop development and production. We used statistically-downscaled climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)–Wheat model to simulate the impact of future climate change on wheat production. Two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations during two different future periods (2031–2060 referred to as 40S and 2071–2100 referred to as 80S). Relative to the baseline period (1981–2010), the trends in mean daily temperature and radiation significantly increased across all stations under the future scenarios. Furthermore, the trends in precipitation increased under future climate scenarios. Due to climate change, the trend in wheat phenology significantly advanced. The early flowering and maturity dates shortened both the vegetative growth stage (VGP) and the whole growth period (WGP). As the advance in the days of maturity was more than that in flowering, the length of the reproductive growth stage (RGP) of spring wheat was shortened. However, as the advance in the date of maturity was less than that of flowering, the RGP of winter wheat was extended. When the increase in CO2 concentration under future climate scenarios was not considered, the trend in change in wheat production for the baseline declined. In contrast, under increased CO2 concentration, the trend in wheat yield increased for most of the stations (except for Nangong station) under future climatic conditions. Winter wheat and spring wheat evapotranspiration (ET) decreased across all stations under the two future climate scenarios. As wheat yield increased with decreasing water consumption (as ET) under the future climatic conditions, water use efficiency (WUE) significantly improved in the future period.

The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize (Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981-2009 from four representative experimental stations in North China Plain (NCP) were analyzed via model simulation. The four representative experimental stations are geographically and climatologically different, represent the typical cropping system in the study area, and have more complete weather/crop records for the period of 1981-2009. The results showed that while the shift from traditional to modern cultivar increased yield by 23.9-40.3 %, new fertilizer management increased yield by 3.3-8.6 %. However, the trends in climate variables for 1981-2009 reduced maize yield by 15-30 % in the study area. Among the main climate variables, solar radiation had the largest effect on maize yield, followed by temperature and then precipitation. While a significant decline in solar radiation in 1981-2009 (maybe due to air pollution) reduced yield by 12-24 %, a significant increase in temperature reduced yield by 3-9 %. In contrast, a non-significant increase in precipitation during the maize growth period increased yield by 0.9-3 % at three of the four investigated stations. However, a decline in precipitation reduced yield by 3 % in the remaining station. The study revealed that although the shift from traditional to modern cultivars and agronomic management practices contributed most to the increase in maize yield, the negative impact of climate change was large enough to offset 46-67 % of the trend in the observed yields in the past three decades in NCP. The reduction in solar radiation, especially in the most critical period of maize growth, limited the process of photosynthesis and thereby further reduced maize yield.

Climate change in the last three decades could have major impacts on crop phenological development and subsequently on crop productivity. In this study, trends in winter wheat phenology are investigated in 36 agro-meteorological stations in the North China Plain (NCP) for the period 1981–2009. The study shows that the dates of sowing (BBCH 00), emergence (BBCH 10) and dormancy (start of dormancy) are delayed on the average by 1.5, 1.7 and 1.5 days/decade, respectively. On the contrary, the dates of greenup (end of dormancy), anthesis (BBCH 61) and maturity (BBCH 89) occur early on the average by 1.1, 2.7 and 1.4 days/decade, respectively. In most of the investigated stations, GP2 (dormancy to greenup), GP3 (greenup to anthesis) and GP0 (entire period from emergence to maturity) of winter wheat shortened during the period 1981–2009. Due, however, to early anthesis, grain-filling stage occurs at lower temperatures than before. This, along with shifts in cultivars, slightly prolongs GP4 (anthesis to maturity). Comparison of field-observed CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-wheat model-simulated dates of anthesis and maturity suggests that climate warming is the main driver of the changes in winter wheat phenology in the NCP. The findings of this study further suggest that climate change impact studies should be strengthened to adequately account for the complex responses and adaptations of field crops to this global phenomenon.