19 results on '"Driouech, Fatima"'
Search Results
2. A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs).
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Meinshausen, Malte, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Beyer, Kathleen, Bodeker, Greg, Boucher, Olivier, Canadell, Josep G., Daniel, John S., Diongue-Niang, Aïda, Driouech, Fatima, Fischer, Erich, Forster, Piers, Grose, Michael, Hansen, Gerrit, Hausfather, Zeke, Ilyina, Tatiana, Kikstra, Jarmo S., Kimutai, Joyce, King, Andrew D., Lee, June-Yi, and Lennard, Chris
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PARIS Agreement (2016) ,CONTRACTS ,GOVERNMENT policy on climate change ,PHYSIOLOGICAL adaptation ,EARTH (Planet) ,GROUP work in research - Abstract
In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well as their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a small set of "framing pathways" such as the so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at the IPCC Bangkok workshop in April 2023 on the "Use of Scenarios in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments", is intended to serve as one of the community contributions to highlight the needs for the next generation of framing pathways that is being advanced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) umbrella, which will influence or even predicate the IPCC AR7 consideration of framing pathways. Here we suggest several policy research objectives that such a set of framing pathways should ideally fulfil, including mitigation needs for meeting the Paris Agreement objectives, the risks associated with carbon removal strategies, the consequences of delay in enacting that mitigation, guidance for adaptation needs, loss and damage, and for achieving mitigation in the wider context of societal development goals. Based on this context, we suggest that the next generation of climate scenarios for Earth system models should evolve towards representative emission pathways (REPs) and suggest key categories for such pathways. These framing pathways should address the most critical mitigation policy and adaptation plans that need to be implemented over the next 10 years. In our view, the most important categories are those relevant in the context of the Paris Agreement long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway and a delayed action (high overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway. Two other key categories are a pathway category approximately in line with current (as expressed by 2023) near- and long-term policy objectives, as well as a higher-emission category that is approximately in line with "current policies" (as expressed by 2023). We also argue for the scientific and policy relevance in exploring two "worlds that could have been". One of these categories has high-emission trajectories well above what is implied by current policies and the other has very-low-emission trajectories which assume that global mitigation action in line with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshoot had begun in 2015. Finally, we note that the timely provision of new scientific information on pathways is critical to inform the development and implementation of climate policy. Under the Paris Agreement, for the second global stocktake, which will occur in 2028, and to inform subsequent development of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) up to 2040, scientific inputs are required by 2027. These needs should be carefully considered in the development timeline of community modelling activities, including those under CMIP7. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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3. Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa
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Zittis, George, Hadjinicolaou, Panos, Almazroui, Mansour, Bucchignani, Edoardo, Driouech, Fatima, El Rhaz, Khalid, Kurnaz, Levent, Nikulin, Grigory, Ntoumos, Athanasios, Ozturk, Tugba, Proestos, Yiannis, Stenchikov, Georgiy, Zaaboul, Rashyd, and Lelieveld, Jos
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- 2021
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4. Evaluation for Moroccan dynamically downscaled precipitation from GCM CHAM5 and its regional hydrologic response
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Jaw, Tsou, Li, Jialun, Hsu, Kuo-lin, Sorooshian, Soroosh, and Driouech, Fatima
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Climate Action ,Dynamical downscaling ,Moroccan precipitation ,Regional hydrology ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Environmental Science and Management - Abstract
Study region: Morocco (excluding Western Sahara). Study focus: This study evaluated Moroccan precipitation, dynamically downscaled (0.18-degree) from three runs of the studied GCM ECHAM5/MPI-OM, under the present-day (1971-2000/20C3M) and future (2036-2065/A1B) climate scenarios. The spatial and quantitative properties of the downscaled precipitation were evaluated by a verified, fine-resolution reference. The effectiveness of the hydrologic responses, driven by the downscaled precipitation, was further evaluated for the study region over the upstream watershed of Oum er Rbia River located in Central Morocco. New hydrological insights for the region: The raw downscaling runs reasonably featured the spatial properties but quantitatively misrepresented the mean and extreme intensities of present-day precipitation. Two proposed bias correction approaches, namely stationary Quantile-Mapping (QM) and non-stationary Equidistant CDF Matching model (EDCDFm), successfully reduced the system biases existing in the raw downscaling runs. However, both raw and corrected runs projected great diversity in terms of the quantity of future precipitation. Hydrologic simulations performed by a well-calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model successfully reproduced the present-day streamflow. The driven flows were identified highly correlated with the effectiveness of the downscaled precipitation. The future flows were projected to be markedly diverse, mainly due to the varied precipitation projections. Two of the three flow simulation runs projected slight to severe drying scenarios, while another projected an opposite trend for the evaluated future period.
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- 2015
5. Future of land surface water availability over the Mediterranean basin and North Africa: Analysis and synthesis from the CMIP6 exercise
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Arjdal, Khadija, primary, Driouech, Fatima, additional, Vignon, Étienne, additional, Chéruy, Frédérique, additional, Manzanas, Rodrigo, additional, Drobinski, Philippe, additional, Chehbouni, Abdelghani, additional, and Idelkadi, Abderrahmane, additional
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- 2023
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6. WMO world record lightning extremes: longest reported flash distance and longest reported flash duration: a WMO committee has judged that the world's longest reported distance (321 km) for a single lightning flash occurred over Oklahoma in 2007, while the world's longest reported duration (7.74 s) for a single lightning flash occurred over southern France in 2012
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Lang, Timothy J., Pedeboy, Stephane, Rison, William, Cerveny, Randall S., Montanya, Joan, Chauzy, Serge, MacGorman, Donald R., Holle, Ronald L., Avila, Eldo E., Zhang, Yijun, Carbin, Gregory, Mansell, Edward R., Kuleshov, Yuriy, Peterson, Thomas C., Brunet, Manola, Driouech, Fatima, and Krahenbuhl, Daniel S.
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World records -- Forecasts and trends ,Lightning -- Forecasts and trends -- Environmental aspects ,Market trend/market analysis ,Business ,Earth sciences ,World Meteorological Organization -- Reports - Abstract
A World Meteorological Organization weather and climate extremes committee has judged that the world's longest reported distance for a single lightning flash occurred with a horizontal distance of 321 km [...]
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- 2017
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7. Vulnerability of maize, millet, and rice yields to growing season precipitation and socio-economic proxies in Cameroon
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Epule, Terence Epule, primary, Chehbouni, Abdelghani, additional, Dhiba, Driss, additional, Etongo, Daniel, additional, Driouech, Fatima, additional, Brouziyne, Youssef, additional, and Peng, Changhui, additional
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- 2021
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8. Sub-chapter 3.4.4. Seasonal forecast of droughts and water resources
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Batté, Lauriane, Driouech, Fatima, and Ardilouze, Constantin
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Introduction Forecasting the upcoming season is a fundamentally different scientific issue from forecasting the weather over the next few days. Due to the intrinsically chaotic nature of the atmosphere, the predictability of temperature, winds, precipitation or pressure systems is typically limited to 10 days. Seasonal forecasts therefore set out to provide an outlook on statistical averages of climatic variables at ranges from one month to a year, and rely on large-scale, more slowly-evolvin...
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- 2018
9. Sub-chapter 2.3.2. Water resources in South Mediterranean catchments
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Jarlan, Lionel, Khabba, Saïd, Szczypta, Camille, Lili-Chabaane, Zohra, Driouech, Fatima, Page, Michel Le, Hanich, Lahoucine, Fakir, Younes, Boone, Aaron, and Boulet, Gilles
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Climate change Positive trends in mean temperatures and a decrease in the number and amplitude of cold outbreaks have already affected all North African countries (Driouech et al., 2013). A global data set of near-surface meteorological variables was used to assess the long-term changes in temperature and precipitation in North Africa in the 20th century (Szczypta et al. in prep). The analysis revealed a significant increase (0.9 °C) in mean temperature between 1900 and 2010 (Figure 1). The i...
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- 2018
10. Sub-chapter 1.2.2. The climate of the Mediterranean regions in the future climate projections
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Planton, Serge, Driouech, Fatima, Rhaz, Khalid EL, and Lionello, Piero
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Introduction Giorgi (2006) defined hot-spots as the most sensitive regions to climate change. On the basis of a regional climate change index (RCCI) calculated from temperature and precipitation projections, the Mediterranean region was revealed to be one of the most prominent hot-spots over the globe. Considering the last global climate change projections in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013), the singularity of the region, particularly ...
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- 2018
11. The Mediterranean region under climate change
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A. Osman, Mona, Aboul-Naga, Adel, Adallal, Rachid, Aderghal, Mohamed, Afif, Charbel, Alary, Véronique, Alifriqui, Mohamed, Alkama, Rezak, Alleaume, Samuel, Alpert, Pinhas, Ancona, Carla, Annabi, Mohamed, Annesi-Maesano, Isabella, Anquetin, Sandrine, Ardilouze, Constantin, Auclair, Laurent, Aumeeruddy-Thomas, Yildiz, Azuara, Julien, B. Nicolas, José, Badri, Wadi, Bailly, Alicia, Baldy, Virginie, Bard, Edouard, Barouki, Robert, Barre, Philippe, Bassetti, Maria-Angela, Batté, Lauriane, Baudoin, Ezekiel, Beekmann, Matthias, Belhimer, Ammar, Benaïssa, Fatima, Benedetti, Fabio, Benjelloun, Badr, Benkaddour, Abdel, Ben Rais Lasram, Frida, Bergametti, Gilles, Berger, Jean-François, Bernoux, Martial, Beveren, Elisabeth Van, Bissonnais, Yves Le, Blanchet, Juliette, Blanfuné, Aurélie, Boissard, Christophe, Bonnet, Pascal, Boone, Aaron, Borbon, Agnès, Borga, Marco, Boudevillain, Brice, Bouet, Christel, Boulet, Gilles, Bounouara, Zohra, Bou Dagher, Magda, Brahim, Nadhem, Bras, Jean-Philippe, Braud, Isabelle, Briche, Elodie, Brousseau, Pierre, Cardinael, Rémi, Carozza, Jean-Michel, Carozza, Laurent, Cavicchia, Leone, Chapron, Emmanuel, Charef, Mohamed, Charki, Abderafi, Chenu, Claire, Chevallier, Tiphaine, Chiraz, Belhadj Kheder, Chotte, Jean-Luc, Colette, Augustin, Coll, Marta, Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie, Coppola, Erika, Costes, Evelyne, Cournac, Laurent, Courp, Thierry, Cozannet, Gonéri Le, Cramer, Wolfgang, Creutin, Jean-Dominique, Dahech, Salem, Dakhlaoui, Hamouda, Daoud, Ibrahim, Darmaraki, Sofia, Darras, Sabine, Dayan, Uri, Débevec, Cécile, Delon, Claire, Delrieu, Guy, Déqué, Michel, Derridj, Arezki, Desboeufs, Karine, Dezileau, Laurent, Diakakis, Michalis, Di Sarra, Alcide, Dollé, Vincent, Doraï, Kamel, Dounias, Edmond, Douvinet, Johnny, Driouech, Fatima, Drobinski, Philippe, Ducrocq, Véronique, Dulac, François, Duponnois, Robin, Dupret, Baudouin, Durand, Pierre, Dusanter, Sébastien, D’Anna, Barbara, Elyazami, Driss, El Mehdi Saidi, Mohamed, Fady, Bruno, Fakir, Younes, Farah, Wehbeh, Fehri, Noômène, Fernandez, Catherine, Fischer, Claude, Flaounas, Emmanouil, Forastiere, Francesco, Formenti, Paola, Forslund, Agneta, Fourrié, Nadia, François Boudouresque, Charles, Galiana, Antoine, Gallali, Tahar, Garcia, Marta, Gaume, Eric, Gauquelin, Thierry, Geniez, Philippe, Genin, Didier, Genty, Dominique, Ghilardi, Matthieu, Gourley, Jonathan, Gros, Valérie, Gualdi, Silvio, Guégan, Jean-François, Guilhaumon, François, Guiot, Joël, Hachicha, Mohamed, Haddouch, Hassan, Hafidi, Mohamed, Haité, Hakima El, Halouani, Ghassen, Hamdi, Salwa, Hamdi-Aissa, Baelhadj, Hamonou, Eric, Hanich, Lahoucine, Harzallah, Ali, Hattab, Tarek, Hebert, Bertil, Himbert, Marc, Hmimsa, Younes, Hochman, Assaf, Hugot, Laetitia, Jalali, Bassem, Jambert, Corinne, Jarlan, Lionel, Javelle, Pierre, Joffre, Richard, Jorda, Gabriel, Jouve, Guillaume, Kallel, Nejib, Kallida, Rajae, Kathra, Nabil Ben, Khabba, Saïd, Khadari, Bouchaib, Khatteli, Houcine, Kotroni, Vassilki, Kuzucuoglu, Catherine, Labiadh, Mohamed, Lacroix, Denis, Lang, Michel, Lasram, Frida Ben Rais, Lasseur, Jacques, Lathière, Juliette, Laurent, Benoît, Leduc, Christian, Legave, Jean-Michel, Leriche, Maud, Lespez, Laurent, Le Loc’H, François, Li, Laurent, Lili-Chabaane, Zohra, Limousin, Jean-Marc, Lionello, Piero, Liousse, Catherine, Llasat, Maria Carmen, Locoge, Nadine, Loc’H, François Le, Loireau, Maud, Longepierre, Damien, Lutoff, Céline, Mailler, Sylvain, Malinowski, Dariusz, Mallet, Marc, Manceron, Stéphane, Maouche, Said, Marchi, Lorenzo, Marcos, Marta, Martin, Eric, Martin, Luc, Martin, Nicolas, Marty, Pascal, Marty, Pauline, Massuel, Sylvain, Médail, Frédéric, Mekki, Insaf, Mellas, Samira, Menad, Wahiba, Menut, Laurent, Michon, Geneviève, Michoud, Vincent, Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos, Moatti, Jean-Paul, Mohamed Zaghloul, Alaa, Molénat, Jérôme, Molinié, Gilles, Monier, Marie, Montagna, Paulo, Montoroi, Jean-Pierre, Morillon, Raphaël, Mouaqit, Mohamed, Mouël, Chantal Le, Mouillot, Florent, Moukhli, Abdelmajid, Moullec, Fabien, Mrad Nakhlé, Myriam, Munoz, François, Nabat, Pierre, Nasrallah, Wafa, Neppel, Luc, Norton, Mark, Ouahmane, Lahcen, Ouelhazi, Bahri, Öztürk, Fatma, Page, Michel Le, Payrastre, Olivier, Planton, Serge, Podwojewski, Pascal, Pradel, Roger, Prévot, Laurent, Prin, Yves, Pulido Bosch, Antonio, Quintana-Seguí, Pere, Raclot, Damien, Raimbault, Patrick, Rajot, Jean-Louis, Ramadan Ali, Rafat, Rambal, Serge, Regnard, Jean-Luc, Remini, Boualem, Renard, Jean-Baptiste, Rhaz, Khalid EL, Rhoujjati, Ali, Ricaud, Philippe, Richard, Franck, Ruelland, Denis, Ruin, Isabelle, Sabir, Mohamed, Saint-Martin, Clotilde, Salah, Ehab, Salameh, Thérèse, Sánchez, Enrique, Sanguin, Hervé, Saraux, Claire, Sartelet, Karine, Satta, Alessio, Sauvage, Stéphane, Schatz, Bertrand, Schmitt, Bertrand, Sciare, Jean, Scolobig, Anna, Sellegri, Karine, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Sicard, Michaël, Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine, Silva, Anne Da, Simenel, Romain, Simmoneau, Anaëlle, Slimani, Said, Snoussi, Maria, Solmon, Fabien, Somot, Samuel, Sonzogni, Corinne, Soussana, Jean-François, Stafoggia, Massimo, Sylvestre, Florence, Szczypta, Camille, Tachikawa, Kazuyo, Taschen, Elisa, Thibaut, Thierry, Thibon, Maxime, Thiébault, Stéphanie, Torquebiau, Emmanuel, Tramblay, Yves, Valentin, Christian, Vallet-Coulomb, Christine, Vanniere, Boris, Vennetier, Michel, Verlaque, Marc, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio, Vidal, Jean-Philippe, Vidal, Laurence, Vinet, Freddy, Viry, Elisabeth, Vogt-Schilb, Hélène, Volaire, Florence, Voltz, Marc, Waked, Antoine, Wattrelot, Eric, Yazami, Driss El, Zaher, Hayat, Zappa, Massimiliano, Zbinden, Régina, Zitouna-Chebbi, Rim, Zribi, Mehrez, Moatti, Jean-Paul, and Thiébault, Stéphane
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Méditerranée ,Allenvi ,changement climatique ,climatic change ,RNK ,Environmental Studies ,COP22 ,Mediterranean ,NAT011000 - Abstract
This book has been published by Allenvi (French National Alliance for Environmental Research) to coincide with the 22nd Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP22) in Marrakesh. It is the outcome of work by academic researchers on both sides of the Mediterranean and provides a remarkable scientific review of the mechanisms of climate change and its impacts on the environment, the economy, health and Mediterranean societies. It will also be valuable in developing responses that draw on “scientific evidence” to address the issues of adaptation, resource conservation, solutions and risk prevention. Reflecting the full complexity of the Mediterranean environment, the book is a major scientific contribution to the climate issue, where various scientific considerations converge to break down the boundaries between disciplines.
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- 2018
12. WMO world record lightning extremes: longest reported flash distance and longest reported flash duration
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Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Elèctrica, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. LRG - Lightning Research Group, Lang, Timothy J., Pédeboy, Stéphane, Rison, William, Montañá Puig, Juan, Cerveny, Randall S., Chauzy, Serge, MacGorman, Donald R., Holle, Ronald L., Ávila, Eldo, Zhang, Yijun, Carbin, Gregory, Mansell, Edward R., Kuleshov, Yuriy, Peterson, Thomas C., Brunet, Manola, Driouech, Fatima, Krahenbuhl, Daniel S., Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Elèctrica, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. LRG - Lightning Research Group, Lang, Timothy J., Pédeboy, Stéphane, Rison, William, Montañá Puig, Juan, Cerveny, Randall S., Chauzy, Serge, MacGorman, Donald R., Holle, Ronald L., Ávila, Eldo, Zhang, Yijun, Carbin, Gregory, Mansell, Edward R., Kuleshov, Yuriy, Peterson, Thomas C., Brunet, Manola, Driouech, Fatima, and Krahenbuhl, Daniel S.
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A World Meteorological Organization weather and climate extremes committee has judged that the world’s longest reported distance for a single lightning flash occurred with a horizontal distance of 321 km (199.5 mi) over Oklahoma in 2007, while the world’s longest reported duration for a single lightning flash is an event that lasted continuously for 7.74 seconds over southern France in 2012. In addition, the committee has unanimously recommended amendment of the AMS Glossary of Meteorology definition of lightning discharge as a "series of electrical processes taking place within 1 second" by removing the phrase “within one second” and replacing with “continuously.” Validation of these new world extremes (a) demonstrates the recent and on-going dramatic augmentations and improvements to regional lightning detection and measurement networks, (b) provides reinforcement regarding the dangers of lightning, and (c) provides new information for lightning engineering concerns., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (author's final draft)
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- 2016
13. The Tosontsengel Mongolia world record sea-level pressure extreme: spatial analysis of elevation bias in adjustment-to-sea-level pressures
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Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Purevjav, Gomboluudev; Balling, Robert C., Jr.; Cerveny, Randall S.; Allan, Rob; Compo, Gilbert P.; Jones, Philip; Peterson, Thomas C.; Brunet, Manola; Driouech, Fatima; Stella, Jose Luis; Svoma, Bohumil M.; Krahenbuhl, Daniel; Vose, Russell S.; Yin, Xungang, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, and Purevjav, Gomboluudev; Balling, Robert C., Jr.; Cerveny, Randall S.; Allan, Rob; Compo, Gilbert P.; Jones, Philip; Peterson, Thomas C.; Brunet, Manola; Driouech, Fatima; Stella, Jose Luis; Svoma, Bohumil M.; Krahenbuhl, Daniel; Vose, Russell S.; Yin, Xungang
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A World Meteorological Organization (WMO) committee evaluated the record sea-level pressure (SLP) measurement of 1089.4hPa on 30 December 2004 in Tosontsengel, Mongolia (1724.6m). Although instrumentation and data collection procedures were properly followed according to the assessment of the committee, concern was raised regarding the reliability of SLP adjustment from such a high-elevation station. This paper addresses this concern with a number of analyses that look at relationships between SLP extremes and corresponding station elevation and temperature. First, we selected data from stations extracted from the Integrated Surface Database (ISD-Lite) of NOAA's National Climate Data Center. A spatial analysis indicates that elevation shows little to no association (R2 values essentially zero) to extreme SLP. However, a second analysis between extreme SLP and air temperature indicates that high regionalism exists in spatial correlations (local R2) between those two variables. This relationship to temperature is likely the result of differences in SLP adjustment formulae used around the world. Based on this analysis, on the need to differentiate the SLP values adjusted using extremely cold temperatures (and generally high elevation), and following past WMO SLP guidelines, the WMO Rapporteurs for Climate and Weather Extremes therefore have created two distinct SLP records: (a) highest adjusted SLP (below 750m), currently 1083.3hPa recorded on 31 December 1968 at Agata, Evenhiyskiy, Russia; and (b) highest adjusted SLP (above 750m), currently 1089.4hPa (by Russian method; 1089.1hPa by WMO formula) on 30 December 2004 in Tosontsengel, Mongolia. Future WMO guidance regarding SLP adjustment may lead to re-evaluation of this and other SLP records.
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- 2015
14. Evaluation of Climate Models. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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Flato, Gregory, Marotzke, Jochem, Abiodun, Babatunde, Braconnot, Pascale, Chou, Sin Chan, Collins, William J., Cox, Peter, Driouech, Fatima, Emori, Seita, Eyring, Veronika, Forest, Chris, Gleckler, Peter, Guilyardi, Eric, Jakob, Christian, Kattsov, Vladimir, Reason, Chris, and Rummukaines, Markku
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evaluation ,climate change ,Erdsystem-Modellierung ,emergent constraints ,Earth system models ,CMIP - Abstract
Climate models have continued to be developed and improved since the AR4, and many models have been extended into Earth System models by including the representation of biogeochemical cycles important to climate change. These models allow for policy-relevant calculations such as the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions compatible with a specified climate stabilization target. In addition, the range of climate variables and processes that have been evaluated has greatly expanded, and differences between models and observations are increasingly quantified using ‘performance metrics’. In this chapter, model evaluation covers simulation of the mean climate, of historical climate change, of variability on multiple time scales and of regional modes of variability. This evaluation is based on recent internationally coordinated model experiments, including simulations of historic and paleo climate, specialized experiments designed to provide insight into key climate processes and feedbacks and regional climate downscaling. Figure 9.44 provides an overview of model capabilities as assessed in this chapter, including improvements, or lack thereof, relative to models assessed in the AR4. The chapter concludes with an assessment of recent work connecting model performance to the detection and attribution of climate change as well as to future projections.
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- 2013
15. Distribution des précipitations hivernales sur le Maroc dans le cadre d'un changement climatique : descente d'échelle et incertitudes
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Driouech, Fatima, Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - Toulouse INP (FRANCE), and Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - INPT (FRANCE)
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Changement climatique ,Modèles régionaux de climat ,Précipitation – Maroc ,Descente d'échelle ,Evénements extrêmes – Sécheresse ,Débit - Abstract
Dans le contexte du changement climatique, il est nécessaire d'affiner les informations relatives à l'évolution du climat dans un pays, susceptible d'être négativement impacté par le réchauffement global, comme le Maroc. En effet, les différentes études de projections futures, dont celles du GIEC, sont basées majoritairement sur les sorties de modèles climatiques à faible résolution qui ne permettent pas d'aborder les échelles régionales et locales. La première partie de ce travail concerne l'étude des tendances et évolutions observées au niveau du climat du Maroc à travers un certain nombre d'indices climatiques. Outre la forte variabilité interannuelle des précipitations et l'augmentation de la fréquence des sécheresses depuis le début des années 1980, la distribution des précipitations du Maroc a bien connu un changement au cours de la période 1961-2008. Ce changement, consistant en une évolution vers des conditions plus sèches, a coïncidé avec une augmentation de la température moyenne en toutes saisons. L'évaluation des changements futurs est réalisée tout d'abord à l'aide d'une descente d'échelle dynamique effectuée avec le modèle ARPEGE-Climat dans sa version à résolution variable. L'examen des capacités du modèle, dont la résolution est de l'ordre de 50km sur le Maroc, a montré son aptitude à simuler correctement la circulation de grande échelle ainsi que la variabilité interannuelle des précipitations marocaines en dépit d'une sous-estimation de leur quantité. A l'horizon 2021-2050, une baisse des cumuls généralisée à tout le pays concernerait la saison d'hiver (DJF). Si on se limite à la zone située à l'ouest des montagnes de l'Atlas, la baisse concernerait la partie la plus pluvieuse de l'année (ONDJFM). Cette baisse serait accompagnée d'une diminution du nombre de jours humides et du nombre d'événements de fortes précipitations ainsi que d'une augmentation de la persistance temporelle de la sécheresse. Ce changement de la distribution des précipitations coïnciderait avec un réchauffement qui se manifesterait à la fois aux échelles saisonnière et annuelle. Les sorties d'une dizaine de modèles régionaux de climat (MRC) du projet FP6-ENSEMBLES, sont utilisées pour balayer une partie de la marge des incertitudes relatives aux changements climatiques et notamment celles inhérentes à la modélisation. Les changements futurs issus de ces MRC, compatibles dans l'ensemble avec ceux issus d'ARPEGE-Climat, optent dans la plupart des cas pour une réduction des cumuls pluviométriques de l'hiver accompagnée généralement d'une baisse du nombre d'événements de fortes précipitations et d'une augmentation du nombre maximal de jours consécutifs secs. L'examen, réalisé à la fois à l'aide du modèle ARPEGE-Climat et des MRC d'ENSEMBLES, de la possibilité d'utilisation d'une méthode de réduction d'échelle statistique basée sur les régimes de temps de l'Atlantique nord pour la déduction des changements futurs des précipitations locales, montre la déficience de ce type d'approche dans le cas de la pluviométrie hivernale marocaine. La méthode de correction par quantiles étendues aux régimes de temps de l'Atlantique nord et appliquée aux sorties d'ARPEGE-Climat confirme le signe des changements issus de ce modèles, malgré un effet légèrement modérateur de leurs amplitudes. L'évaluation des impacts potentiels sur l'hydrologie à l'aide du modèle hydrologique GR2M et des scénarios climatiques d'ARPEGE-Climat, montre une future réduction des débits mensuels au niveau du bassin versant de la Moulouya du fait de la concomitance de précipitations moins abondantes et d'une évapotranspiration potentielle accrue par l'augmentation de température. Enfin, une descente d'échelle dynamique réalisée à l'aide du modèle à aire limitée ALADIN-Climat à très haute résolution (12km) sur la moitié nord du pays permet de confirmer dans l'ensemble les projections issues d'ARPEGE-Climat à la fois en termes de moyennes et d'extrêmes.
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- 2010
16. Evaluation for Moroccan dynamically downscaled precipitation from GCM CHAM5 and its regional hydrologic response
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Jaw, Tsou, primary, Li, Jialun, additional, Hsu, Kuo-lin, additional, Sorooshian, Soroosh, additional, and Driouech, Fatima, additional
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- 2015
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- View/download PDF
17. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Arab region: long-term trends and variability related to ENSO and NAO
- Author
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Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Donat, M. G. Peterson, T. C. Brunet, M. King, A. D. Almazroui, M. Kolli, R. K. Boucherf, Djamel Al-Mulla, Anwar Yousuf Nour, Abdourahman Youssouf Aly, Ahmed Attia Nada, Tamer Ali Ali Semawi, Muhammad M. Al Dashti, Hasan Abdullah Salhab, Tarek G. El Fadli, Khalid I. Muftah, Mohamed K. Eida, Sidaty Dah Badi, Wafae Driouech, Fatima El Rhaz, Khalid Abubaker, Mohammed J. Y. Ghulam, Ayman S. Erayah, Amani Sanhouri Ben Mansour, Maher Alabdouli, Waleed O. Al Dhanhani, Jemie Salem Al Shekaili, Majed N., Universitat Rovira i Virgili, and Donat, M. G. Peterson, T. C. Brunet, M. King, A. D. Almazroui, M. Kolli, R. K. Boucherf, Djamel Al-Mulla, Anwar Yousuf Nour, Abdourahman Youssouf Aly, Ahmed Attia Nada, Tamer Ali Ali Semawi, Muhammad M. Al Dashti, Hasan Abdullah Salhab, Tarek G. El Fadli, Khalid I. Muftah, Mohamed K. Eida, Sidaty Dah Badi, Wafae Driouech, Fatima El Rhaz, Khalid Abubaker, Mohammed J. Y. Ghulam, Ayman S. Erayah, Amani Sanhouri Ben Mansour, Maher Alabdouli, Waleed O. Al Dhanhani, Jemie Salem Al Shekaili, Majed N.
- Published
- 2014
18. Vigilancia del clima de la Tierra
- Author
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Wang, Xiaolan L., Peterson, Thomas C., Lawrimore, Jay, Brunet, Manola, Cerveny, Randall, Donlon, Craig, Driouech, Fatima, Hassan, Wan A. Wan, Hollmann, Rainer, Schwartz, Mark D., and Zhang, Zuqiang
- Subjects
Observación atmosférica ,Vigilancia del clima ,Fenómenos meteorológicos extremos - Published
- 2008
19. World Meteorological Organization Assessment of the Purported World Record 58°C Temperature Extreme at El Azizia, Libya (13 September 1922)
- Author
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El Fadli, Khalid I., primary, Cerveny, Randall S., additional, Burt, Christopher C., additional, Eden, Philip, additional, Parker, David, additional, Brunet, Manola, additional, Peterson, Thomas C., additional, Mordacchini, Gianpaolo, additional, Pelino, Vinicio, additional, Bessemoulin, Pierre, additional, Stella, José Luis, additional, Driouech, Fatima, additional, Wahab, M. M Abdel, additional, and Pace, Matthew B., additional
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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