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Measurements have been made at P-band (0.707 GHz) to construct a model for the dielectric constant of sea water and extend the model for the dielectric constant to high salinity (50-150 pss). The measurements are part of research to develop a model for the dielectric constant suitable for future wide-bandwidth remote sensing of salinity and for application to water bodies such as the Great Salt Lake with salinity significantly above that found in the open ocean. Measurements have been made at temperatures from 2 to 30 °C and salinity from 0 to 138 pss. The data have been fit to a Debye model for the dielectric constant with a single resonance as has been employed at L-band (1.413 GHz) where remote sensing of salinity is currently done. Comparison with contemporary models developed from data at L-band indicates that the L-band model and new P-band model do well at both frequencies for salinity less than 50 pss but at higher values of salinity the L-band models diverge from the data. The data has also been used to test at high salinity the mathematical relationship between salinity and conductivity which is the basis for the practical salinity scale (pss).

Vegetation health forecasting (NDVI as a proxy) informs decision-makers about the end of season crop yield productivity but is not well-documented. This study tests improvements in vegetation health forecasting by developing a data-driven Dynamic Agricultural Productivity Indicator (DAPI), which simultaneously incorporates satellite-based root zone soil moisture (RZSM) and satellite-based NDVI data. RZSM is estimated via data assimilation of satellite based SMAP SM dataset. We employ the proposed DAPI forecast across four cropland types in CONUS, including corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat. Results demonstrate superior performance of the DAPI forecasts compared to climatology-based NDVI forecasts, with the largest improvements in water-limited regions. DAPI shows particularly good performance during hydrologic disturbances such as floods and droughts. To this end, the DAPI approach is useful in estimating future vegetation health for identifying potential food-insecure areas, predicting crop price changes, and projecting expected commodities market trends.

Developing Earth science data products that meet the needs of diverse users is a challenging task for both data producers and service providers, as user requirements can vary significantly and evolve over time. In this comment, we discuss several strategies to improve Earth science data products that everyone can use.

In order to improve aerosol representation in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, we evaluated simulations of the aerosol properties and transport over the southern African biomass burning source and outflow region using observations made during the first deployment of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) field campaign in September 2016. An example case study of September 24 was analyzed in detail, during which aircraft-based in-situ and remote sensing observations showed the presence of a multi-layered smoke plume structure with significant vertical variation in single scattering albedo (SSA). Our baseline GEOS simulations were not able to represent the observed SSA variation, nor the observed organic aerosol-to-black carbon ratio (OA : BC). Analyzing the simulated smoke age suggests that the higher altitude, less absorbing smoke plume was younger (~4 days), while the lower altitude and more absorbing smoke plume was older (~7 days). We hypothesize a chemical or microphysical loss process exists to explain the change in aerosol absorption as the smoke plume ages, and we apply a simple 6-day e-folding loss rate to the model hydrophilic biomass burning OA to mimic this process. Adding this loss process required some adjustment to the model assumed scaling factors of aerosol emissions to conserve the regional aerosol loading and further improve the simulated OA : BC ratio. Accordingly, we have increased our biomass burning emissions of OA by 60 % and biomass burning BC by 15 %. We also utilized the ORACLES airborne observations to better constrain the simulation of aerosol optical properties, adjusting the assumed particle size, hygroscopic growth, and absorption. Our final GEOS model simulation with additional OA loss and updated optics showed a better performance in simulating AOD and SSA compared to independent ground and space-based retrievals for the entire month of September 2016, including the OMI Aerosol Index. In terms of radiative implications of our model adjustments, the final GEOS simulation suggested a decreased atmospheric warming of about 10 % (~2 W m-2) over the south-east Atlantic region and above the stratocumulus cloud decks compared to the model baseline simulations. These results improve the representation of the smoke age, transport, and optical properties in Earth system models.

The accuracy of the absolute radiometric calibration (RadCal) for remote sensing instruments is essential to their wide range of applications. The uncertainty associated to the traditional source-based RadCal method is assessed at a 2% (k=1) or higher level for radiance measurement. To further improve the accuracy to meet the demands of climate studies, a detector-based approach using tunable lasers as a light source has been devised. The Goddard Laser for Absolute Measurement of Radiance, known as the GLAMR system, is a notable example of the incorporation of such technology. Using transfer radiometers calibrated at NIST as calibration standards, the absolute spectral response (ASR) function of a remote sensing instrument is measured with its uncertainty traceable to the International System of Units. This paper presents a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of the detector-based absolute RadCal using the GLAMR system. It identifies and examines uncertainty sources during the GLAMR RadCal test, including those from the GLAMR system, the testing configuration, and data processing methodologies. Analysis is carried out to quantify the contribution of each source and emphasize the most influential factors. It is shown that the calibration uncertainty of GLAMR RadCal can be better than 0.3% (k=1) in the wavelength range of 350-950 nm and 0.6% (k=1) between 950-2300 nm, with the exception of regions with strong water absorption. In addition, recommendations are made to refine the calibration process to further reduce the uncertainty.

The Landsat-9 satellite, launched in September 2021, carries the Operational Land Imager-2 (OLI-2) as one of its payloads. This instrument is a clone of the Landsat-8 OLI and its mission is to continue the operational land imaging of the Landsat program. The OLI-2 instrument is not significantly different from OLI though the instrument-level pre-launch spectral characterization process was much improved. The focal plane modules used on OLI-2 were manufactured as spares for OLI and much of the spectral characterization of the components was performed for OLI. However, while the spectral response of the fully assembled OLI was characterized by a double monochromator system, the OLI-2 spectral characterization made use of the Goddard Laser for Absolute Measurement of Radiance (GLAMR). GLAMR is a system of tunable lasers that cover 350–2500 nm which are fiber-coupled to a 30 in integrating sphere permanently monitored by NIST-traceable radiometers. GLAMR allowed the spectral characterization of every detector of the OLI-2 focal plane in nominal imaging conditions. The spectral performance of the OLI-2 was, in general, much better than requirements. The final relative spectral responses (RSRs) represent the best characterization any Landsat instrument spectral response. This paper will cover the results of the spectral characterization from the component-level to the instrument-level of the Landsat-9 OLI-2.

We measured the column-averaged atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio (XCO2) to a variety of cloud tops with an airborne pulsed multi-wavelength integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar during NASA's 2017 ASCENDS/ABoVE airborne campaign. Measurements of height-resolved atmospheric backscatter profiles allow this lidar to retrieve XCO2 to cloud tops, as well as to the ground, with accurate knowledge of the photon path length. We validated these measurements with those from an onboard in situ CO2 sensor during spiral-down maneuvers. These lidar measurements were 2–3 times better than those from previous airborne campaigns due to our using a wavelength step-locked laser transmitter and a high-efficiency detector for this campaign. Precisions of 0.6 parts per million (ppm) were achieved for 10 s average measurements to mid-level clouds and 0.9 ppm to low-level clouds at the top of the planetary boundary layer. This study demonstrates the lidar's capability to fill in XCO2 measurement gaps in cloudy regions and to help resolve the vertical and horizontal distributions of atmospheric CO2. Future airborne campaigns and spaceborne missions with this capability can be used to improve atmospheric transport modeling, flux estimation and carbon data assimilation.

Study region The La Plata River Basin (LPRB) is an area of interest, as there was a significant drought event from 2019 to 2021. With the LPRB being the second largest river basin in South America, this drought affected all aspects of life for over 100 million people who inhabit this area. Study focus In this study, we utilized satellite and model datasets to examine spatial and temporal variability of hydrological anomalies throughout the basin before and during the drought event. These variable anomalies, such as precipitation and groundwater, are derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Additionally, the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations were used in the spatial and temporal analysis of the drought. The water loss was calculated using the Mann-Kendall test to assess the changes in anomalies for the terrestrial water storage throughout the basin and subbasins. New hydrological insights for the region The main insight from this study is the agreement of the GLDAS anomalies with the SMAP data throughout the drought. The variable anomalies all decreased and showed alignment with the downscaled 1 km SMAP which shows alignment with the trends from in-situ observations. It was also found that the Upper Parana subbasin lost the most water over the drought period. These products improve understanding of the spatial variability within the entire basin and facilitate understanding of droughts and resources to assist in the future management of water resources.

Spectral remote sensing reflectance, Rrs(λ) (sr−1), is the fundamental quantity used to derive a host of bio-optical and biogeochemical properties of the water column from satellite ocean color measurements. Estimation of uncertainty in those derived geophysical products is therefore dependent on knowledge of the uncertainty in satellite-retrieved Rrs. Furthermore, since the associated algorithms require Rrs at multiple spectral bands, the spectral (i.e., band-to-band)error covariance in Rrs is needed to accurately estimate the uncertainty in those derived properties. This study establishes a derivative-based approach for propagating instrument random noise, instrument systematic uncertainty, and forward model uncertainty into R rs as retrieved using NASA’s multiple-scattering epsilon (MSEPS) atmospheric correction algorithm, to generate pixel-level error covariance in R rs. The approach is applied to measurements from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite and verified using Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. We also make use of this full spectral error covariance in R rs to calculate uncertainty in phytoplankton pigment chlorophyll-a concentration (chla, mg/m3) and diffuse attenuation coefficient of downwelling irradiance at 490 nm (K d(490), m-1). Accounting for the error covariance in Rrs generally reduces the estimated relative uncertainty in chla by ∼1-2% (absolute value) in waters with chla< 0.25 mg/m3 where the color index (CI) algorithm is used. The reduction is ∼5-10% in waters with chla> 0.35 mg/m3 where the blue-green ratio (OCX) algorithm is used. Such reduction can be higher than 30% in some regions. For K d(490), the reduction by error covariance is generally ∼2%, but can be higher than 20% in some regions. The error covariance in R rs is further verified through forward-calculating chla from MODIS-retrieved and in situ R rs and comparing estimated uncertainty with observed differences. An 8-day global composite of propagated uncertainty shows that the goal of 35% uncertainty in chla can be achieved over deep ocean waters (chla ≤ 0.1 mg/m3). While the derivative-based approach generates reasonable error covariance in R rs some assumptions should be updated as our knowledge improves. These include the inter-band error correlation in top-of-atmosphere reflectance, and uncertainties in the calibration of MODIS 869 nm band, in ancillary data, and in the in situ data used for system vicarious calibration.

P-band radiometry has been demonstrated to have a deeper sensing depth than at L-band, making the consideration of multi-layer microwave interactions necessary. Additionally, the scattering and phase interference effects are different at P-band, requiring a re-consideration of the need for coherent models. However, the impact remains to be clarified, and understanding the validity and limitations of these models at both L-band and P-band is crucial for their refinement and application. Therefore, two general categories of microwave emission models, including two stratified coherent models (Njoku and Wilhite) and four incoherent models (conventional tau-omega model and three multi-layer models being zero-order, first-order, and incoherent solution), were intercompared for the first time on the same dataset. This evaluation utilized observations of L-band and P-band radiometry under different land cover conditions from a tower-based experiment in Victoria, Australia. Model estimations of brightness temperature (TB) were consistent with measurements, with the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) at P-band V-polarization under corn (2 K) and the highest RMSE at L-band H-polarization under bare soil (13 K). Coherent models performed slightly better than incoherent models under bare soil (3 K less RMSE), while the opposite was true under vegetated soil conditions (1 K less RMSE). Coherent and incoherent models showed maximum differences (3 K at P-band, 2 K at L-band), correlating strongly with soil moisture variations at 0-10 cm. Findings suggest that coherent and incoherent models perform similarly; thus, incoherent models may be preferable for estimating TB at L- and P-band due to reduced computational complexity.

In this study we present a model for the global Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS). PHELS estimates the daily hazard of hydrologically triggered landslides at a coarse spatial resolution of 36 km, by combining landslide susceptibility (LSS) and (percentiles of) hydrological variable(s). The latter include daily rainfall, a 7-day antecedent rainfall index (ARI7) or root-zone soil moisture content (rzmc) as hydrological predictor variables, or the combination of rainfall and rzmc. The hazard estimates with any of these predictor variables have areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) above 0.68. The best performance was found with combined rainfall and rzmc predictors (AUC = 0.79), which resulted in the lowest number of missed alarms (especially during spring) and false alarms. Furthermore, PHELS provides hazard uncertainty estimates by generating ensemble simulations based on repeated sampling of LSS and the hydrological predictor variables. The estimated hazard uncertainty follows the behaviour of the input variable uncertainties, is about 13.6 % of the estimated hazard value on average across the globe and in time and is smallest for very low and very high hazard values.

The Caucasus Mountains harbor high concentrations of endemic species and provide an abundance of ecosystem services yet are significantly understudied compared to other ecosystems in Eurasia. In the country of Georgia, at the heart of the Caucasus region, forest degradation has been the largest land change process over the last thirty years. The prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. Yet, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. We combine newly available land-cover change estimates, Georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. Our analysis controls for concurrent changes in climate that would affect degradation and examines variation at the regional (state) level from 2011 to 2019, as well as at the national level from 1987 to 2019. We find that higher winter temperature and drought are associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought are associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. Access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. Our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new Forest Code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. Given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change.

Space weather, a natural hazard, can adversely impact human technological assets. High-voltage electric power transmission grids constitute one of the most critical technological systems vulnerable to space weather driven geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). One of the major challenges pertaining to the study of GICs over the continental United States has been the availability of GIC measurements, which are critical for validation of geoelectric field and power flow models, for example. In this study, we analyze GIC measurements collected at 17 Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI) SUNBURST transformer locations across the United States for which a GIC value of 10 A or greater was recorded. This data set includes 52 individual geomagnetic storms with Kp index 6 and above during the period from 2010 to 2021. The analysis confirms that there is a good correlation between the number of geomagnetic storms per year and the number of recorded GIC events. Our results also show that about 76% of the top 17 GIC events are associated with the storm main phase, while only 24% are attributed to storm sudden commencements. In addition, it is shown, for the first time, that mid-latitude positive bays can cause large GICs over the continental United States. Finally, this study shows that the largest measured GIC event in the data set was associated with a localized intense dB/dt structure, which could be attributed to substorm activity.

Scientific studies of the Earth’s climate increasingly rely on high-quality satellite observations. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) is a key sensor onboard a series of satellites [Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) and Joint Polar-orbiting Satellite System 1–4 (JPSS-1–JPSS-4)] that generate scientific data from land, ocean, and atmosphere used in these climate models. Providing quality scientific data from space-borne sensors requires the instruments to be well-calibrated. While much of the calibration can be maintained on-orbit, some aspects of the calibration can best be measured prior to launch. One VIIRS parameter that needs to be measured pre-launch is the response versus scan angle (RVS). The RVS measures the relative change in the reflectance of the scanning optics as a function of the angle of incidence. With the RVS, the gain calibration measured on-orbit can be transferred to any scan angle. The JPSS-3 and JPSS-4 instruments have undergone ground testing including the RVS measurements, which is the subject of this work. Results indicate that the measurements are comparable to previous VIIRS builds and are expected to contribute to the generation of high-quality science data once JPSS-3 and JPSS-4 are on-orbit.

Converting measurements of ice-sheet surface elevation change to mass change requires measurements of accumulation and knowledge of the evolution of the density profile in the firn. Most firn-densification models are tuned using measured depth-density profiles, a method which is based on an assumption that the density profile in the firn is invariant through time. Here we present continuous measurements of firn-compaction rates in 12 boreholes near the South Pole over a two-year period. To our knowledge, these are the first continuous measurements of firn compaction on the Antarctic Plateau. We use the data to derive a new firn-densification algorithm framed as a constitutive relationship. We also compare our measurements to compaction rates predicted by several existing firn densification models. Results indicate that an activation energy of 60 kJ mol (−1), a value within the range used by current models, best predicts the seasonal cycle in compaction rates on the Antarctic Plateau. Our results suggest models can predict firn-compaction rates with at best 7% uncertainty and cumulative firn compaction on a two year timescale with at best 8% uncertainty.

The onset of the summer melt season is a key stage of the Arctic sea ice seasonal cycle and is an indicator of climate change. Surface melting of the bare or snow-covered sea ice is detected using passive microwave satellite observations. The data set presented here is a 44 year record of Arctic sea ice annual melt onset (MO) dates for 1979–2022 produced using an updated version of the Advanced Horizontal Range Algorithm (AHRA). This data product contains annual maps of the sea ice MO date and a set of descriptive statistics summarizing the data. This paper describes a new update of the AHRA methodology, now AHRA V5, including key changes to the algorithm starting date and sea ice mask methodology to improve estimates of early-season MO dates especially near the sea ice periphery. AHRA V5 data are suitable for monitoring trends in Arctic and regional sea ice MO dates and for process studies of atmosphere-sea ice interactions during the early spring and summer months.

The Greenland Ice Sheet is a leading contributor to global sea-level rise because climate warming has enhanced surface meltwater runoff. Melt rates are particularly sensitive to air temperatures due to feedbacks with albedo. The primary melt-albedo feedback, fluctuation of seasonal snowlines, however, is determined not only by melt but also by antecedent snowfall which could delay the onset of dark glacier ice exposure. Here we investigate the role of snowfall versus air temperatures on ice sheet melt-albedo feedbacks using satellite remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data. We find several lines of evidence that snowline fluctuations are driven primarily by air temperatures and that snowfall is a secondary control. First, standardized linear regressions indicate that the timing of glacier ice exposure is nearly twice as sensitive to air temperatures than antecedent snowfall. Second, in 74% of the ablation zone by area, winter snowfall rates are not significantly correlated with winter air temperatures. This relationship implies that ice sheet melt due to climate warming is unlikely to be compensated by higher snowfall rates in the ablation zone. Third, we find no significant change in snowfall rates in the ablation zone during our 1981–2021 study period. Our findings demonstrate that snowfall is unlikely to reduce future ice sheet melt and that ice sheet meltwater runoff should be accurately predicted by air temperatures. Although given the importance of melt-albedo feedbacks, ice sheet models that parameterize albedo or are coupled with regional climate models are likely to provide the most accurate projections of mass loss.

This study endeavors to produce a comprehensive land cover map for Morocco, addressing the absence of such a detailed map in the country. Our research encompasses ecological and climatic aspects specific to Morocco, while the methods used can be adapted to various regions and countries, considering their unique climatic conditions and land cover types. A combination of MODIS and Landsat datasets was employed to create a 5 km resolution Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) map for the entire nation. The process involved the aggregation and advanced processing of these datasets using surface processes algorithms. The resulting LULC map is the first of its kind for Morocco, shedding light on land cover distribution nationwide. It shows that approximately 13.5% of the country is covered by forests, predominantly in the Atlas and Rif mountains, Rabat–Sale, and the southern regions. Grasslands occupy over 16% of the study area, mainly in the north-east and west. Urban areas, including major cities like Casablanca, Rabat, and Marrakech, span nearly 3400 km². Moreover, large areas of shrublands and bare lands are evident across the country, while agricultural lands account for almost 20% of the national territory, mainly in the interior plains and north-western Atlantic coast. This study forms a crucial basis for ecological and climatic research in Morocco and serves as a valuable reference for various disciplines such as agriculture, natural resource management, and climate modeling. The mapping of biophysical parameters for each land cover class is a key feature of our research, and these parameters will be instrumental in a subsequent study examining the impact of urban development on surface climate in Morocco. Overall, our study underscores the importance of understanding biophysical parameters in addressing environmental and societal challenges.

Sea ice fraction (SIF) over the Ross/Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea (RAB) are investigated using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 (MERRA-2), focusing on the differences in time-lagged response to ENSO between the late 20th (1980–2000, L20) and the early 21st century (2001–2021, E21). The findings suggest that the typical Antarctic response to ENSO is influenced by changes in ENSO type/intensity, highlighting the need for caution when investigating the Antarctic teleconnection. Time-lagged regressions onto the mature phase of El Niño reveal that the SIF decrease and SST increase over the RAB is relatively weaker in E21 and most pronounced at 0–4 months lag. Conversely, the SIF in L20 continues to decline and reaches its peak at two-season lag (5–7 months). Tropospheric wind, pressure, and wave activity in response to El Niño in L20 show a zonally oriented high/low-pressure areas with two-season lag, enhancing the poleward flow that plays a key role in sea ice melt in the RAB, while this pattern in E21 is insignificant at the same lag. This study suggests that stronger (weaker) and more eastern (central) Pacific ENSOs on average in L20 (E21) are associated with this decadal change in the SIF response to ENSO.

Rapidly destabilizing climatic and other biophysical conditions, competition for natural resources, geopolitical conflicts, and market pressures will continue to impose constraints and shocks to the food system, the greatest impacts of which will be felt by nutritionally vulnerable populations. Creating a just, nutritious, and sustainable food system that feeds the world requires a paradigm shift on where, what, and how we grow food while ensuring equitable channels of distribution. Moving forward, we must generate new science, reorient policies, and invest in a suite of environmental, technological, and sociocultural transformations from farm to fork.

Planetary radiometric observations enable remote sensing of biogeochemical parameters to describe spatiotemporal variability in aquatic ecosystems. For approximately the last half century, the science of aquatic radiometry has established a knowledge base using primarily, but not exclusively, visible wavelengths. Scientific subdisciplines supporting aquatic radiometry have evolved hardware, software, and procedures to maximize competency for exploiting visible wavelength information. This perspective culminates with the science requirement that visible spectral resolution must be continually increased to extract more information. Other sources of information, meanwhile, remain underexploited, particularly information from nonvisible wavelengths. Herein, absolute radiometry is used to evaluate spectral limits for deriving and exploiting aquatic data products, specifically the normalized water-leaving radiance, Γ(λ)⁠, and its derivative products. Radiometric observations presented herein are quality assured for individual wavebands, and spectral verification is conducted by analyzing celestial radiometric results, comparing agreement of above- and in-water observations at applicable wavelengths, and evaluating consistency with bio-optical models and optical theory. The results presented include the first absolute radiometric field observations of Γ(λ) within the IR-B spectral domain (i.e. spanning 1400–3000 nm), which indicate that IR-B signals confer greater and more variable flux than formerly ascribed. Black-pixel processing, a routine correction in satellite and in situ aquatic radiometry wherein a spectrum is offset corrected relative to a nonvisible waveband (often IR-B or a shorter legacy waveband) set to a null value, is shown to degrade aquatic spectra and derived biogeochemical parameters.

Although shifting cultivation is the major land use type in Laos, the spatial-temporal patterns and the associated carbon emissions of shifting cultivation in Laos are largely unknown. This study provides a nationwide analysis of the spatial-temporal patterns of shifting cultivation and estimations of the associated carbon emissions in Laos over the last three decades. This study found that shifting cultivation has been expanding and intensifying in Laos, especially in the last five years. The newly cultivated land from 2016-2020 accounted for 4.5% (±1.2%) of the total land area of Laos. Furthermore, the length of fallow periods has been continuously declining, indicating that shifting cultivation is becoming increasingly intensive. Combining biomass derived from GEDI (Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation) and shifting cultivation maps and area estimates, we found that the net carbon emissions from shifting cultivation declined in 2001-2015 but increased in 2016-2020. The largest carbon source is conversion from intact forests to shifting cultivation, which contributed to 89% of the total emissions from 2001 to 2020. In addition, there were increased emissions from intensified use of fallow land. This research provides useful information for policymakers in Laos to understand the changes in shifting cultivation and improve land use management. This study not only supports REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) reporting for Laos but also provides a methodology for tracking carbon emissions and removals of shifting cultivation.

Estimates of ground-level ozone concentrations have been improved through data fusion of observations and atmospheric chemistry models. Our previous global ozone estimates for the Global Burden of Disease study corrected for bias uniformly across continents and then corrected near monitoring stations using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework for data fusion. Here, we use the Regionalized Air Quality Model Performance (RAMP) framework to correct model bias over a much larger spatial range than BME can, accounting for the spatial inhomogeneity of bias and nonlinearity as a function of modeled ozone. RAMP bias correction is applied to a composite of 9 global chemistry-climate models, based on the nearest set of monitors. These estimates are then fused with observations using BME, which matches observations at measurement stations, with the influence of observations declining with distance in space and time. We create global ozone maps for each year from 1990 to 2017 at fine spatial resolution. RAMP is shown to create unrealistic discontinuities due to the spatial clustering of ozone monitors, which we overcome by applying a weighting for RAMP based on the number of monitors nearby. Incorporating RAMP before BME has little effect on model performance near stations, but strongly increases R2 by 0.15 at locations farther from stations, shown through a checkerboard cross-validation. Corrections to estimates differ based on location in space and time, confirming heterogeneity. We quantify the likelihood of exceeding selected ozone levels, finding that parts of the Middle East, India, and China are most likely to exceed 55 parts per billion (ppb) in 2017. About 96% of the global population was exposed to ozone levels above the World Health Organization guideline of 60 µg m−3 (30 ppb) in 2017. Our annual fine-resolution ozone estimates may be useful for several applications including epidemiology and assessments of impacts on health, agriculture, and ecosystems.

Harmful algal blooms have dangerous repercussions for biodiversity, the ecosystem, and public health. Automatic identification based on remote sensing hyperspectral image analysis provides a valuable mechanism for extracting the spectral signatures of harmful algal blooms and their respective percentage in a region of interest. This paper proposes a new model called a non-symmetrical autoencoder for spectral unmixing to perform endmember extraction and fractional abundance estimation. The model is assessed in benchmark datasets, such as Jasper Ridge and Samson. Additionally, a case study of the HSI2 image acquired by NASA over Lake Erie in 2017 is conducted for extracting optical water types. The results using the proposed model for the benchmark datasets improve unmixing performance, as indicated by the spectral angle distance compared to five baseline algorithms. Improved results were obtained for various metrics. In the Samson dataset, the proposed model outperformed other methods for water (0.060) and soil (0.025) endmember extraction. Moreover, the proposed method exhibited superior performance in terms of mean spectral angle distance compared to the other five baseline algorithms. The non-symmetrical autoencoder for the spectral unmixing approach achieved better results for abundance map estimation, with a root mean square error of 0.091 for water and 0.187 for soil, compared to the ground truth. For the Jasper Ridge dataset, the non-symmetrical autoencoder for the spectral unmixing model excelled in the tree (0.039) and road (0.068) endmember extraction and also demonstrated improved results for water abundance maps (0.1121). The proposed model can identify the presence of chlorophyll-a in waterbodies. Chlorophyll-a is an essential indicator of the presence of the different concentrations of macrophytes and cyanobacteria. The non-symmetrical autoencoder for spectral unmixing achieves a value of 0.307 for the spectral angle distance metric compared to a reference ground truth spectral signature of chlorophyll-a. The source code for the proposed model, as implemented in this manuscript, can be found at https://github.com/EstefaniaAlfaro/autoencoder_owt_spectral.git.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has launched a new initiative, the Open-Source Science Initiative (OSSI), to enable and support science towards openness. The OSSI supports open-source software development and dissemination. In this work, we present NASAaccess, which is an open-source software package and web-based environmental modeling application for earth observation data accessing, reformatting, and presenting quantitative data products. The main objective of developing the NASAaccess platform is to facilitate exploration, modeling, and understanding of earth data for scientists, stakeholders, and concerned citizens whose objectives align with the new OSSI goals. The NASAaccess platform is available as software packages (i.e., the R and conda packages) as well as an interactive-format web-based environmental modeling application for earth observation data developed with Tethys Platform. NASAaccess has been envisioned as lowering the technical barriers and simplifying the process of accessing scalable distributed computing resources and leveraging additional software for data and computationally intensive modeling frameworks. Specifically, NASAaccess has been developed to meet the need for seamless earth observation remote-sensing and climate data ingestion into various hydrological modeling frameworks. Moreover, NASAaccess is also contributing to keeping interested parties and stakeholders engaged with environmental modeling, accessing the information available in various remote-sensing products. NASAaccess' current capabilities cover various NASA datasets and products that include the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) data products, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) land surface states and fluxes, and the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate change dataset products.

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are used to investigate the potential performance of proposed new instruments on numerical weather prediction (NWP). As OSSEs involve a framework in which the atmosphere and observations are all completely simulated, it is necessary to perform validation of the OSSE to ensure that it is sufficiently realistic to provide useful experimental results. A common issue that affects the forecast skill and observation impacts is the tendency of OSSEs to have insufficient model error compared to NWP in the real world. In this work, two versions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) NWP OSSE framework are compared, with the newer framework having more simulated forecast model error than the older framework due to changes to the NWP system. The performance of the updated OSSE is validated against corresponding behavior of the same NWP system in the real world in terms of the simulated observations, the analysis increments, forecast error, and observation impacts. OSSE results of analysis and forecast impacts for three proposed new observation systems are also compared between the older and newer frameworks to evaluate the robustness of the OSSE experiments and the role of model error in observation impacts. These three new instruments are the Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) hyperspectral infrared sounder (GXS), the Midwave Infrared Sounding of Temperature and humidity in a Constellation for Winds (MISTiC Winds) atmospheric motion vectors, and additional Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultations (GNSS-RO).

Linked climate and crop simulation models are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, it is unclear how ensemble configurations (model composition and size) influence crop yield projections and uncertainty. Here, we investigate the influences of ensemble configurations on crop yield projections and modeling uncertainty from Global Gridded Crop Models and Global Climate Models under future climate change. We performed a cluster analysis to identify distinct groups of ensemble members based on their projected outcomes, revealing unique patterns in crop yield projections and corresponding uncertainty levels, particularly for wheat and soybean. Furthermore, our findings suggest that approximately six Global Gridded Crop Models and 10 Global Climate Models are sufficient to capture modeling uncertainty, while a cluster-based selection of 3-4 Global Gridded Crop Models effectively represents the full ensemble. The contribution of individual Global Gridded Crop Models to overall uncertainty varies depending on region and crop type, emphasizing the importance of considering the impact of specific models when selecting models for local-scale applications. Our results emphasize the importance of model composition and ensemble size in identifying the primary sources of uncertainty in crop yield projections, offering valuable guidance for optimizing ensemble configurations in climate-crop modeling studies tailored to specific applications.

Both regional climate models (RCMs) and remote sensing (RS) data are essential tools in understanding the response of polar regions to climate change. RCMs can simulate how certain climate variables, such as surface melt, runoff and snowfall, are likely to change in response to different climate scenarios but are subject to biases and errors. RS data can assist in reducing and quantifying model uncertainties by providing indirect observations of the modeled variables on the present climate. In this work, we improve on an existing scheme to assimilate RS wet snow occurrence data with the “Modèle Atmosphérique Régional” (MAR) RCM and investigate the sensitivity of the RCM to the parameters of the scheme. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature to match the presence of liquid water observed by satellites. The sensitivity of the assimilation method is tested by modifying parameters such as the depth to which the MAR snowpack is warmed or cooled, the quantity of water required to qualify a MAR pixel as “wet” (0.1 % or 0.2 % of the snowpack mass being water), and assimilating different RS datasets. Data assimilation is carried out on the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in meltwater production (+66.7 % on average, or +95 Gt), along with a small decrease in surface mass balance (SMB) (−4.5 % on average, or −20 Gt) for the 2019–2020 melt season after assimilation. The model is sensitive to the tested parameters, albeit with varying orders of magnitude. The prescribed warming depth has a larger impact on the resulting surface melt production than the liquid water content (LWC) threshold due to strong refreezing occurring within the top layers of the snowpack. The values tested for the LWC threshold are lower than the LWC for typical melt days (approximately 1.2 %) and impact results mainly at the beginning and end of the melting period. The assimilation method will allow for the estimation of uncertainty in MAR meltwater production and will enable the identification of potential issues in modeling near-surface snowpack processes, paving the way for more accurate simulations of snow processes in model projections.

Increasing genetic wheat yield potential is considered by many as critical to increasing global wheat yields and production, baring major changes in consumption patterns. Climate change challenges breeding by making target environments less predictable, altering regional productivity and potentially increasing yield variability. Here we used a crop simulation model solution in the SIMPLACE framework to explore yield sensitivity to select trait characteristics (radiation use efficiency [RUE], fruiting efficiency and light extinction coefficient) across 34 locations representing the world’s wheat-producing environments, determining their relationship to increasing yields, yield variability and cultivar performance. The magnitude of the yield increase was trait-dependent and differed between irrigated and rainfed environments. RUE had the most prominent marginal effect on yield, which increased by about 45 % and 33 % in irrigated and rainfed sites, respectively, between the minimum and maximum value of the trait. Altered values of light extinction coefficient had the least effect on yield levels. Higher yields from improved traits were generally associated with increased inter-annual yield variability (measured by standard deviation), but the relative yield variability (as coefficient of variation) remained largely unchanged between base and improved genotypes. This was true under both current and future climate scenarios. In this context, our study suggests higher wheat yields from these traits would not increase climate risk for farmers and the adoption of cultivars with these traits would not be associated with increased yield variability.

Extreme climate events are societally harmful and have increased in frequency and intensity in recent decades. Indices based on temperature and precipitation are a valuable way to quantify climate extremes. Certain indices are defined relative to percentiles, which are dependent on a climatological baseline period. In this study, indices computed using temperature and precipitation from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 are calculated using percentiles from three baseline periods: 1981–2010, 1991–2020 and 1981–2020. Updating the baseline period from 1981 to 2010 to 1991–2020 leads to significant changes in the quantification of temperature and precipitation extremes over the United States over 1980–2021. Using the later baseline period indicates more cold extremes, fewer warm extremes, and fewer but more intense precipitation extremes throughout the US, with regional variation. Changing the baseline period can mislead the public and decision makers, potentially undermining the appropriate response to climate-related health risks.

The most extreme manifestation of a fire–weather interaction is the formation of pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) thunderstorms, triggered by super-heated updrafts, which can eject smoke at altitudes exceeding 20 Km. In this study, we investigated climate-related impacts from the most intensive pyroCb-triggered injection of smoke in the stratosphere: the Australian New Year wildfires in 2019/2020. We first provide a general overview of the vision and objectives of the StratoFIRE project. With the aid of the global chemistry-climate model EMAC, we then simulate radiative and chemical perturbations in the stratosphere in relation to 0.9 Tg smoke in the stratosphere assuming different injection heights, from 13 to 16 Km. The simulation of stratospheric optical depth perturbations were found to be sensitive to the assumed injection height, with a maximum height at 16 Km showing the best agreement with the GLOSSAC and SAGE-ISS aerosol extinction observations.

Avian influenza viruses pose a threat to wildlife and livestock health. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in wild birds and poultry in North America in late 2021 was the first such outbreak since 2015 and the largest outbreak in North America to date. Despite its prominence and economic impacts, we know relatively little about how HPAI spreads in wild bird populations. In January 2022, we captured 43 mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in Tennessee, USA, 11 of which were actively infected with HPAI. These were the first confirmed detections of HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in the Mississippi Flyway. We compared movement patterns of infected and uninfected birds and found no clear differences; infected birds moved just as much during winter, migrated slightly earlier, and migrated similar distances as uninfected birds. Infected mallards also contacted and shared space with uninfected birds while on their wintering grounds, suggesting ongoing transmission of the virus. We found no differences in body condition or survival rates between infected and uninfected birds. Together, these results show that HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b infection was unrelated to body condition or movement behavior in mallards infected at this location during winter; if these results are confirmed in other seasons and as HPAI H5N1 continues to evolve, they suggest that these birds could contribute to the maintenance and dispersal of HPAI in North America. Further research on more species across larger geographic areas and multiple seasons would help clarify potential impacts of HPAI on waterfowl and how this emerging disease spreads at continental scales, across species, and potentially between wildlife and domestic animals.

Globally, we are facing an emerging climate crisis, with impacts to be notably felt in semiarid regions across the world. Cultivation of drought-adapted succulent plants has been suggested as a nature-based solution that could: (i) reduce land degradation, (ii) increase agricultural diversification and provide both economic and environmentally sustainable income through derived bioproducts and bioenergy, (iii) help mitigate atmospheric CO2 emissions and (iv) increase soil sequestration of CO2. Identifying where succulents can grow and thrive is an important prerequisite for the advent of a sustainable alternative ‘bioeconomy’. Here, we first explore the viability of succulent cultivation in Africa under future climate projections to 2100 using species distribution modelling to identify climatic parameters of greatest importance and regions of environmental suitability. Minimum temperatures and temperature variability are shown to be key controls in defining the theoretical distribution of three succulent species explored, and under both current and future SSP5 8.5 projections, the conditions required for the growth of at least one of the species are met in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These results are supplemented with an analysis of potentially available land for alternative succulent crop cultivation. In total, up to 1.5 billion ha could be considered ecophysiologically suitable and available for succulent cultivation due to projected declines in rangeland biomass and yields of traditional crops. These findings may serve to highlight new opportunities for farmers, governments and key stakeholders in the agriculture and energy sectors to invest in sustainable bioeconomic alternatives that deliver on environmental, social and economic goals.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) fuels atmospheric chemical cycling as the main sink for methane and a driver of the formation and loss of many air pollutants, but direct OH observations are sparse. We develop and evaluate an observation-based proxy for short term, spatial variations in OH (ProxyOH) in the remote marine troposphere using unprecedented and comprehensive measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) airborne campaign. ProxyOH is a reduced form of the OH steady-state equation representing the dominant OH production and loss pathways in the remote marine troposphere, according to box model simulations of OH constrained with ATom observations. ProxyOH comprises only eight variables that are generally observed by routine ground- or satellite-based instruments. ProxyOH scales linearly with in situ [OH] spatial variations along the ATom flight tracks (median r2 = 0.90, interquartile range = 0.80 – 0.94 across 2 km altitude by 20° latitudinal regions). We deconstruct spatial variations in ProxyOH as a first-order approximation of the sensitivity of OH variations to individual terms. Two terms modulate within-region ProxyOH variations—water vapor (H2O) and, to a lesser extent, nitric oxide (NO). This implies that a limited set of observations could offer a novel avenue for observation-based mapping of OH spatial variations over much of the remote marine troposphere. Both H2O and NO are expected to change with climate, while NO also varies strongly with human activities. We also illustrate the utility of ProxyOH as a process-based approach for evaluating inter-model differences in remote marine tropospheric OH.

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.

Sea ice modulates the energy exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean through its kinematics. Marginal ice zone (MIZ) dynamics are complex and are not well resolved in routine observations. Here, we investigate sea ice dynamics in the Greenland Sea MIZ using two Lagrangian drift datasets. We find evidence of tidal currents strongly affecting sub-daily sea ice motion. Velocity anomalies show abrupt transitions aligned with gradients in seafloor topography, indicating changes in ocean currents. Remote-sensed ice floe trajectories derived from moderate resolution satellite imagery provide a view of small-scale variability across the Greenland continental shelf. Ice floe trajectories reveal an west-east increasing velocity gradient imposed by the East Greenland Current, with maximum velocities aligned along the continental shelf edge. These results highlight the importance of small scale ocean variability for ice dynamics in the MIZ.

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

Invasive species are a leading threat to biodiversity worldwide. Nypa palm (Nypa fruticans) has emerged as the predominant invasive species in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. While endemic mangroves have high rates of carbon sequestration, stabilize coastlines, and protect biodiversity, Nypa does not provide these services outside its native region of Southeast Asia. Oil exploration and urbanization in this region also exacerbates mangrove loss and Nypa spread. As Nypa is difficult to distinguish from endemic mangrove species in remotely sensed data, estimates of mangrove and ecosystem services losses in Nigeria are highly uncertain. Here, we analyze multisensor satellite data with machine learning to quantify the rapid expansion of Nypa from 2015-2020 in Nigeria. Using Landsat imagery and random forest classification, we quantify total potential Nypa extent in Nigeria in 2019. We then produced a Nypa extent map using iterative combinations of Sentinel-1 SAR, Sentinel-2 MSI, and ALOS PALSAR. Random forest classifications using SAR data from ALOS and Sentinel-1 were best suited for mapping Nypa extent with similar accuracies (78% and 75% respectively). Based on data availability and accuracy, we focused our change analysis on Sentinel-1 SAR. Our results show ~28,000 ha of mangroves were converted to Nypa in Nigeria by 2020 and covered a larger extent than endemic mangroves, compounding the effect of the existing degradation and deforestation in the region. We also compared forest height and complexity estimates from GEDI (Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation) LiDAR to further distinguish between endemic mangroves and Nypa in three dimensions. Nypa structural variability, measured by top-of-canopy height, vegetation cover, plant area index, and foliage height diversity, was lower than that of mangroves. At current rates of Nypa expansion, the entire area of study would be invaded by Nypa by 2028, with potentially detrimental consequences to the ecosystem services provided by mangroves.

This paper presents a method for reconstructing the historical hourly concentrations of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) over the Kathmandu Valley from 1980 to the present. The method uses a machine learning model that is trained using PM2.5 readings from US Embassy (Phora Durbar) as a ground truth, and the meteorological data from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA2) as input. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model acquires a credible 10-fold cross-validation (CV) score of ~83.4%, an r2-score of ~84%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of ~15.82 µg/m3, and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of ~10.27 µg/m3. Further demonstrating the model's applicability to years other than those for which truth values are unavailable, the multiple cross-test with an unseen data set offered r2-scores for 2018, 2019, and 2020 ranging from 56% to 67%. The model-predicted data agrees with true values and indicates that MERRA2 underestimates PM2.5 over the region. It strongly agrees with ground-based evidence showing substantially higher mass concentrations in the dry pre- and post-monsoon seasons than in the monsoon months. It also shows a strong anti-correlation between PM2.5 concentration and humidity. The results also demonstrate that none of the years fulfilled the annual mean air quality index (AQI) standards set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

This paper describes a new global dataset of cloud properties observed by MODIS relying on the current (collection 6.1) processing of MODIS data and produced to facilitate comparison with results from the MODIS observational proxy used in climate models. The dataset merges observations from the two MODIS instruments into a single netCDF file. Statistics (mean, standard deviation, and number of observations) are accumulated over daily and monthly timescales on an equal-angle grid for viewing and illumination geometry, cloud detection, cloud-top pressure, and cloud properties (optical thickness, effective particle size, and water path) partitioned by thermodynamic phase and an assessment as to whether the underlying observations come from fully or partly cloudy pixels. Similarly partitioned joint histograms are available for (1) optical thickness and cloud-top pressure, (2) optical thickness and particle size, and (3) cloud water path and particle size. Differences with standard data products, caveats for data use, and guidelines for comparison to the MODIS simulator are described.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's (GrIS) firn layer buffers the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise by storing meltwater in its pore space. However, available pore space and meltwater retention capability is lost due to ablation of the firn layer and refreezing of meltwater as near-surface ice slabs in the firn. Understanding how firn properties respond to climate is important for constraining the GrIS's future contribution to sea level rise in a warming climate. Observations of firn density provide detailed information about firn properties, but they are spatially and temporally limited. Here we use two firn models, the physics-based SNOWPACK model and the Community Firn Model configured with a semi-empirical densification equation (CFM-GSFC), to quantify firn properties across the GrIS from 1980 through 2020. We use an identical forcing (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis) for SNOWPACK and the CFM-GSFC in order to isolate firn model differences. To evaluate the models, we compare simulated firn properties, including firn air content (FAC), to measurements from the Surface Mass Balance and Snow on Sea Ice Working Group (SUMup) dataset of snow and firn density. Both models perform well (mean absolute percentage errors of 14 % in SNOWPACK and 16 % in the CFM-GSFC), though their performance is hindered by the spatial resolution of the atmospheric forcing. In the ice-sheet-wide simulations, the 1980–1995 average spatially integrated FAC (i.e., air volume in the firn) for the upper 100 m is 34 645 km3 from SNOWPACK and 28 581 km3 from the CFM-GSFC. The discrepancy in the magnitude of the modeled FAC stems from differences in densification with depth and variations in the sensitivity of the models to atmospheric forcing. In more recent years (2005–2020), both models simulate substantial depletion of pore space. During this period, the spatially integrated FAC across the entire GrIS decreases by 3.2 % (−66.6 km3 yr−1) in SNOWPACK and 1.5 % (−17.4 km3 yr−1) in the CFM-GSFC. These differing magnitudes demonstrate how model differences propagate throughout the FAC record. Over the full modeled record (1980–2020), SNOWPACK simulates a loss of pore space equivalent to 3 mm of sea level rise buffering, while the CFM-GSFC simulates a loss of 1 mm. The greatest depletion in FAC is along the margins and especially along the western margin where observations and models show the formation of near-surface, low-permeability ice slabs that may inhibit meltwater storage.

Aerosol reanalysis datasets are model-based, observationally constrained, continuous 3D aerosol fields with a relatively high temporal frequency that can be used to assess aerosol variations and trends, climate effects, and impacts on socioeconomic sectors, such as health. Here we compare and assess the recently published MONARCH (Multiscale Online Non-hydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry) high-resolution regional desert dust reanalysis over northern Africa, the Middle East, and Europe (NAMEE) with a combination of ground-based observations and space-based dust retrievals and products. In particular, we compare the total and coarse dust optical depth (DOD) from the new reanalysis with DOD products derived from MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer), and IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) spaceborne instruments. Despite the larger uncertainties, satellite-based datasets provide a better geographical coverage than ground-based observations, and the use of different retrievals and products allows at least partially overcoming some single-product weaknesses in the comparison. Nevertheless, limitations and uncertainties due to the type of sensor, its operating principle, its sensitivity, its temporal and spatial resolution, and the methodology for retrieving or further deriving dust products are factors that bias the reanalysis assessment. We, therefore, also use ground-based DOD observations provided by 238 stations of the AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) located within the NAMEE region as a reference evaluation dataset. In particular, prior to the reanalysis assessment, the satellite datasets were evaluated against AERONET, showing moderate underestimations in the vicinities of dust sources and downwind regions, whereas small or significant overestimations, depending on the dataset, can be found in the remote regions. Taking these results into consideration, the MONARCH reanalysis assessment shows that total and coarse-DOD simulations are consistent with satellite- and ground-based data, qualitatively capturing the major dust sources in the area in addition to the dust transport patterns. Moreover, the MONARCH reanalysis reproduces the seasonal dust cycle, identifying the increased dust activity that occurred in the NAMEE region during spring and summer. The quantitative comparison between the MONARCH reanalysis DOD and satellite multi-sensor products shows that the reanalysis tends to slightly overestimate the desert dust that is emitted from the source regions and underestimate the transported dust over the outflow regions, implying that the model's removal of dust particles from the atmosphere, through deposition processes, is too effective. More specifically, small positive biases are found over the Sahara desert (0.04) and negative biases over the Atlantic Ocean and the Arabian Sea (−0.04), which constitute the main pathways of the long-range dust transport. Considering the DOD values recorded on average there, such discrepancies can be considered low, as the low relative bias in the Sahara desert (< 50 %) and over the adjacent maritime regions (< 100 %) certifies. Similarly, over areas with intense dust activity, the linear correlation coefficient between the MONARCH reanalysis simulations and the ensemble of the satellite products is significantly high for both total and coarse DOD, reaching 0.8 over the Middle East, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Arabian Sea and exceeding it over the African continent. Moreover, the low relative biases and high correlations are associated with regions for which large numbers of observations are available, thus allowing for robust reanalysis assessment.

The seven papers in this special issue span a range of satellite remote-sensing applications, from characterizing near-surface aerosol pollution and SO2 concentrations (Qu et al., 2023a and Xu et al., 2023, respectively), to atmospheric column methane and cloud measurement (Karoff and Vara-Vela, 2023 and Jian et al., 2023, respectively), to the stratospheric aerosol distribution over the over Xinjiang region of China (ZiWei and Xiangling, 2023). In these efforts to advance the field, common threads are the use of various machine learning methods to extract patterns from vast amounts of satellite data, and in many cases, the integration of multiple datasets, from different sources, sometimes including models, to provide the constraints required to obtain meaningful geophysical quantities.

In the following decade(s), a set of satellite missions carrying thermal infrared (TIR) imagers with a relatively high noise equivalent differential temperature (NEdT) are expected, e.g., the high resolution TIR imagers flying on the future Thermal infraRed Imaging Satellite for High-resolution Natural resource Assessment (TRISHNA), Land Surface Temperature Monitoring (LSTM) and NASA-JPL/ASI Surface Biology and Geology Thermal (SBG) missions or the secondary payload on board the ESA Earth Explorer 10 Harmony. The instruments on board these missions are expected to be characterized by an NEdT of ⪆0.1 K. In order to reduce the impact of radiometric noise on the retrieved sea surface temperature (SST), this study investigates the possibility of applying a multi-pixel atmospheric correction based on the hypotheses that (i) the spatial variability scales of radiatively active atmospheric variables are, on average, larger than those of the SST and (ii) the effect of atmosphere is accounted for via the split window (SW) difference. Based on 32 Sentinel 3 SLSTR case studies selected in oceanic regions where SST features are mainly driven by meso to sub-mesoscale turbulence (e.g., corresponding to major western boundary currents), this study documents that the local spatial variability of the SW difference term on the scale of ≃3 × 3 km2 is comparable with the noise associated with the SW difference. Similarly, the power spectra of the SW term are shown to have, for small scales, the behavior of white noise spectra. On this basis, we suggest to average the SW term and to use it for the atmospheric correction procedure to reduce the impact of radiometric noise. In principle, this methodology can be applied on proper scales that can be dynamically defined for each pixel. The applicability of our findings to high-resolution TIR missions is discussed and an example of an application to ECOSTRESS data is reported.

We report the development of a temperature profile data set from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) instrument on the Suomi NPP satellite. The data set covers a roughly 10 year period from 2012 to 2022, and temperatures are provided in the altitude range between 35 and 70 km. The algorithm uses daytime Rayleigh scattered radiation near 350 nm to estimate atmospheric density profiles, which are vertically integrated using the hydrostatic equation to estimate atmospheric pressure. Temperature profiles are then derived using the ideal gas law. Spectral structures in the OMPS-LP radiances are a source of systematic errors that limit the absolute accuracy to ±2 K. However, since the systematic errors do not change significantly over time, the relative accuracy is better than ±1 K. Our temperature data set has been designed to supplement global temperature maps produced by assimilation of data from traditional meteorological sensors, including GNSS radio occultation sensors, that provide high quality atmospheric temperature profiles up to 40–55 km. We show comparisons to other co-located temperature datasets to validate our product.

Land surface modeling provides the opportunity to investigate winter soil processes such as soil freezing and thawing over large domains. However, the variability in simulated winter soil characteristics among land surface models and forcing datasets is not well understood. In this study, a nine-member ensemble was employed to characterize the spatial and inter-annual variability of three winter soil characteristics, annual number of frozen days, annual minimum temperature and annual number of freeze-thaw cycles over North America during the water years 2010–2016. The ensemble, including three land surface model (JULES, Noah2.7.1 and Noah-MP) and three forcing datasets (ECMWF, GDAS and MERRA2), was developed through the Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP). In many regions, there was remarkably good agreement across the ensemble for the winter soil temperatures. However, the variability among the ensemble's annual number of frozen days, as quantified with standard deviation, exceeded 150 days at the northern Pacific coastline. While the differences among the ensemble members' annual minimum temperature were typically <3 °C, the differences exceeded 6 °C north of 50°N. The ensemble members generally agreed within one to three freeze-thaw cycles in mid latitude regions, Alaska, and the south and west coasts of the USA. High variability among the ensemble, more than six freeze-thaw cycles, occurred in the Great Plains, northern Pacific coastline, and along the Appalachian Mountains. Differences in winter soil temperature characteristics were more apparent among the LSMs rather than the meteorological forcing datasets. Except for maritime regions, the Noah2.7.1 members had the fewest annual number of frozen days and the least number of freeze-thaw cycles. Noah2.7.1 also had the coldest annual minimum temperatures except for ephemeral regions. Comparisons between in-situ observations and the SEUP estimates of winter soil characteristics revealed that the modeled frozen period was much longer than observed, that the modeled annual minimum temperatures were much colder than observed, and the modeled freeze-thaw cycles occurred more frequently than observed. Excluding the high latitude sites, the observed frozen period is less than two months with the minimum temperature above − 5 °C at most of the studied sites, while the ensemble members simulated, on average, a four month frozen period with − 10 °C minimum temperature. Errors in capturing snow during the accumulation period appear to impact differences in modeled versus observed soil temperature throughout the entire winter.

In recent years, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) hyperspectral infrared satellite sounding retrievals derived from Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) polar-orbiting satellites have been documented as observations that add value to weather forecasting applications. NUCAPS is currently the operational algorithm delivering JPSS satellite sounding retrievals to the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) and is based on the heritage Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Science Team algorithm for processing vertical temperature, moisture, and trace gas retrievals. For the Special Collection on “Twenty Years of Observations from AIRS,” we highlight the methodology we implemented to develop a prototype science-to-applications system to enable real-time processing of AIRS satellite sounding retrievals through the NUCAPS algorithm (i.e., NUCAPS-Aqua) to support weather forecasting applications. The addition of NUCAPS-Aqua to experimental real-time pathways alongside operational JPSS NUCAPS soundings, facilitated assessment of NUCAPS-Aqua at the 2022 Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment. Development of NUCAPS-Aqua described in this technical report includes preservation of microwave observations and calculation of a-priori regression coefficients. Additionally, the real-time processing and challenges with implementing a science-to-applications system are discussed. Two illustrative pre-convective forecasting examples analyzed by NWS forecasters during the 2022 HWT Spring Experiment are highlighted to demonstrate the benefit of NUCAPS-Aqua as (a) special afternoon soundings, (b) an additional observation to assess temporal trends using multiple satellites, and (c) a complement to observational and model analysis.

We investigated the optimal number of independent parameters required to accurately represent spectral remote sensing reflectances (𝑅rs) by performing principal component analysis on quality controlled in situ and synthetic 𝑅rs data. We found that retrieval algorithms should be able to retrieve no more than four free parameters from 𝑅rs spectra for most ocean waters. In addition, we evaluated the performance of five different bio-optical models with different numbers of free parameters for the direct inversion of in-water inherent optical properties (IOPs) from in situ and synthetic 𝑅rs data. The multi-parameter models showed similar performances regardless of the number of parameters. Considering the computational cost associated with larger parameter spaces, we recommend bio-optical models with three free parameters for the use of IOP or joint retrieval algorithms.

A SmallSat mission concept is formulated here to carry out Time-varying Optical Measurements of Clouds and Aerosol Transport (TOMCAT) from space while embracing low-cost opportunities enabled by the revolution in Earth science observation technologies. TOMCAT’s “around-the-clock” measurements will provide needed insights and strong synergy with existing Earth observation satellites to 1) statistically resolve diurnal and vertical variation of cirrus cloud properties (key to Earth’s radiation budget), 2) determine the impacts of regional and seasonal planetary boundary layer (PBL) diurnal variation on surface air quality and low-level cloud distributions, and 3) characterize smoke and dust emission processes impacting their long-range transport on the subseasonal to seasonal time scales. Clouds, aerosol particles, and the PBL play critical roles in Earth’s climate system at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Yet their vertical variations as a function of local time are poorly measured from space. Active sensors for profiling the atmosphere typically utilize sun-synchronous low-Earth orbits (LEO) with rather limited temporal and spatial coverage, inhibiting the characterization of spatiotemporal variability. Pairing compact active lidar and passive multiangle remote sensing technologies from an inclined LEO platform enables measurements of the diurnal and vertical variability of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-mixing-layer (or PBL) height in tropical-to-midlatitude regions where most of the world’s population resides. TOMCAT is conceived to bring potential societal benefits by delivering its data products in near–real time and offering on-demand hazard-monitoring capabilities to profile fire injection of smoke particles, the frontal lofting of dust particles, and the eruptive rise of volcanic plumes.

Multi-angle polarimetric (MAP) measurements contain rich information for characterization of aerosol microphysical and optical properties that can be used to improve atmospheric correction in ocean color remote sensing. Advanced retrieval algorithms have been developed to obtain multiple geophysical parameters in the atmosphere-ocean system, although uncertainty correlation among measurements is generally ignored due to lack of knowledge on its strength and characterization. In this work, we provide a practical framework to evaluate the impact of the angular uncertainty correlation from retrieval results and a method to estimate correlation strength from retrieval fitting residuals. The Fast Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (FastMAPOL) retrieval algorithm, based on neural network forward models, is used to conduct the retrievals and uncertainty quantification. In addition, we also discuss a flexible approach to include a correlated uncertainty model in the retrieval algorithm. The impact of angular correlation on retrieval uncertainties is discussed based on synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 measurements using a Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation method. Correlation properties are estimated using auto-correlation functions based on the fitting residuals from both synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 data and real AirHARP measurement, with the resulting angular correlation parameters found to be larger than 0.9 and 0.8 for reflectance and DoLP, respectively, which correspond to correlation angles of 10° and 5°. Although this study focuses on angular correlation from HARP instruments, the methodology to study and quantify uncertainty correlation is also applicable to other instruments with angular, spectral, or spatial correlations, and can help inform laboratory calibration and characterization of the instrument uncertainty structure.