Search

In 1997–1998, the Netherlands experienced a large epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF). The magnitude of this epidemic stressed the role information systems could play in supporting the management during an eradication campaign. The enforcement of an eradication strategy can become very complicated, especially with large epidemics, due to time pressure and many different procedures that have to be executed at the same time. The application of comprehensive information systems may result in more control over the process and in a relief of the operational management. After a brief description of the Dutch epidemic the authors provide an overview and the general application of four different types of information systems, classified as decision support systems. The application of these information systems in animal disease control is illustrated by providing concepts for a system architecture for transaction processing, management and executive information support and decision support. The application of a data warehouse as part of this systems architecture is explained. The eradication of CSF from the Netherlands was complicated by several factors. It is important to notice that information systems cannot prevent these factors. However, information systems can support disease control authorities in controlling these factors.

Abstract The recent bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Western Europe struck hard. Controlling the infection was difficult and a good and safe vaccine was not available until the spring of 2008. Little was known regarding BTV transmission in Western Europe or the efficacy of control measures. Quantitative details on transmission are essential to assess the potential and efficacy of such measures. To quantify virus transmission between herds, a temporal and a spatio-temporal analysis were applied to data on reported infected herds in 2006. We calculated the basic reproduction number between herds (Rh: expected number of new infections, generated by one initial infected herd in a susceptible environment). It was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that of an infection with Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in The Netherlands, e.g. around 4. We concluded that an average day temperature of at least 15°C is required for BTV-8 transmission between herds in Western Europe. A few degrees increase in temperature is found to lead to a major increase in BTV-8 transmission. We also found that the applied disease control (spatial zones based on 20 km radius restricting animal transport to outside regions) led to a spatial transmission pattern of BTV-8, with 85% of transmission restricted to a 20 km range. This 20 km equals the scale of the protection zones. We concluded that free animal movement led to substantial faster spread of the BTV-8 epidemic over space as compared to a situation with animal movement restrictions.

Abstract Background In August 2006 a major epidemic of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV8) started off in North-West Europe. In the course of 2007 it became evident that BTV8 had survived the winter in North-West Europe, re-emerged and spread exponentially. Recently, the European Union decided to start vaccination against BTV8. In order to improve the understanding of the epidemiological situation, it was necessary to execute a cross-sectional serological study at the end of the BT vector season. Cattle were the target species for cross-sectional serological studies in Europe at the end of 2006 and 2007. However, there was no information on the BTV8-seroprevalence in sheep and goats. Results On the basis of our cross-sectional study, the estimated seroprevalence of BTV8-exposed locations in the Netherlands in 2006 was 0% for goats (95% confidence interval: 0 – 5.6%) and 7.0% for sheep (95% confidence interval: 3.5 – 12.9%). The estimated seroprevalence of BTV-8 exposed locations in 2007 was 47% for goats (95% confidence interval: 36 – 58%) and 70% for sheep (95% confidence interval: 63 – 76%). There was a wide range in within-location seroprevalence in locations with goats and sheep (1 – 100%). A gradient in seroprevalence was seen, with the highest level of seroprevalence in the southern Netherlands, the area where the epidemic started in 2006, and a decreasing seroprevalence when going in a northern direction. Conclusion There is a much higher estimated seroprevalence of locations with goats exposed to BTV8 than can be inferred from the rather low number of reported clinical outbreaks in goats. This is probably due to the fact that clinical signs in infected goats are far less obvious than in sheep. The wide range in within-location seroprevalence observed means that the proportion of animals protected in 2008 by a natural infection in 2006 and/or 2007 can differ highly between flocks. This should be taken into account when vaccinating animals.

Abstract Background In the recent past, the introduction of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) followed by between-herd spread has given rise to a number of large epidemics in The Netherlands and Belgium. Both these countries are pork-exporting countries. Particularly important in these epidemics has been the occurrence of substantial "neighborhood transmission" from herd to herd in the presence of base-line control measures prescribed by EU legislation. Here we propose a calculation procedure to map out "high-risk areas" for local between-herd spread of CSFV as a tool to support decision making on prevention and control of CSFV outbreaks. In this procedure the identification of such areas is based on an estimated inter-herd distance dependent probability of neighborhood transmission or "local transmission". Using this distance-dependent probability, we derive a threshold value for the local density of herds. In areas with local herd density above threshold, local transmission alone can already lead to epidemic spread, whereas in below-threshold areas this is not the case. The first type of area is termed 'high-risk' for spread of CSFV, while the latter type is termed 'low-risk'. Results As we show for the case of The Netherlands, once the distance-dependent probability of local transmission has been estimated from CSFV outbreak data, it is possible to produce a map of the country in which areas of high-risk herds and of low-risk herds are identified. We made these maps even more informative by estimating border zones between the two types of areas. In these border zones the risk of local transmission of infection to a nearby high-risk area exceeds a certain level. Conclusion The risk maps provide an easily understandable visualization of the spatial heterogeneities in transmission risk. They serve as a tool for area-specific designs of control strategies, and possibly also for spatial planning of areas where livestock farming is allowed. Similar risk maps can in principle be constructed for other highly-transmissible livestock infections that spread via neighborhood transmission.

Avian influenza viruses from wild birds can cause outbreaks in poultry, and occasionally infect humans upon exposure to infected poultry. Identification and characterization of viral reservoirs and transmission routes is important to develop strategies that prevent infection of poultry, and subsequently virus transmission between poultry holdings and to humans. Based on spatial, temporal and phylogenetic analyses of data generated as part of intense and large-scale influenza surveillance programs in wild birds and poultry in the Netherlands from 2006 to 2011, we demonstrate that LPAIV subtype distribution differed between wild birds and poultry, suggestive of host-range restrictions. LPAIV isolated from Dutch poultry were genetically most closely related to LPAIV isolated from wild birds in the Netherlands or occasionally elsewhere in Western Europe. However, a relatively long time interval was observed between the isolations of related viruses from wild birds and poultry. Spatial analyses provided evidence for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) being more abundant near primary infected poultry farms. Detailed year-round investigation of virus prevalence and wild bird species distribution and behavior near poultry farms should be used to improve risk assessment in relation to avian influenza virus introduction and retarget avian influenza surveillance programs.

Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) host preferences and attack rates were quantified in early summer at a dairy farm in the Netherlands using livestock tethered at pasture. Midges were aspirated hourly over seven consecutive hours (17:00-23:00) from a dairy cow, a Shetland pony, and a sheep and correspondingly yielded seventeen, thirteen, and nine species. Of the 14,181 midges obtained, approximately 95% belonged to the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi, C. chiopterus, and C. punctatus that together include all proven or potential vectors for arboviral diseases in livestock in northwestern Europe. On average, 7.6 and 3.5 times more Culicoides were collected, respectively, from the cow and the Shetland pony than from the sheep. In descending order of abundance, the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi, and C. chiopterus dominated attacks on all three hosts, whereas C. punctatus and C. pulicaris favored only the two larger hosts. Irrespective of the host species involved, the three body regions attracted the same component species, C. chiopterus favoring the legs, C. punctatus and C. achrayi the belly, and the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi, and C. pulicaris the head, back, and flanks. That known and potential vectors for animal diseases feed indiscriminately on a broad range of mammal hosts means that all major livestock species, including equines, are rendered susceptible to one or more Culicoides-borne pathogens., (© 2015 The Society for Vector Ecology.)

Background: Orthobunyaviruses belonging to the Simbu sero-group occur worldwide, including the newly recognized Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in Europe. These viruses cause congenital malformations and reproductive losses in ruminants. Information on the presence of these viruses in Africa is scarce and the origin of SBV is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of antibodies against SBV and closely related viruses in cattle in Tanzania, and their possible association with reproductive disorders., Results: In a cross-sectional study, serum from 659 cattle from 202 herds collected in 2012/2013 were analyzed using a commercial kit for SBV ELISA, and 61 % were positive. Univariable logistic regression revealed significant association between ELISA seropositivity and reproductive disorders (OR = 1.9). Sera from the same area collected in 2008/2009, before the SBV epidemic in Europe, were also tested and 71 (54.6 %) of 130 were positive. To interpret the ELISA results, SBV virus neutralization test (VNT) was performed on 110 sera collected in 2012/2013, of which 51 % were positive. Of 71 sera from 2008/2009, 21 % were positive. To investigate potential cross reactivity with related viruses, 45 sera from 2012/2013 that were positive in SBV ELISA were analyzed in VNTs for Aino, Akabane, Douglas, Peaton, Sabo, SBV, Sathuperi, Shamonda, Simbu and Tinaroo viruses. All 45 sera were positive for one or more of these viruses. Twenty-nine sera (64.4 %) were positive for SBV, and one had the highest titer for this virus., Conclusions: This is the first indication that Aino, Akabane, Douglas, Peaton, Sabo, SBV, Sathuperi, Shamonda and Tinaroo viruses circulate and cause negative effect on reproductive performance in cattle in Tanzania. SBV or a closely related virus was present before the European epidemic. However, potential cross reactivity complicates the interpretation of serological studies in areas where several related viruses may circulate. Virus isolation and molecular characterization in cattle and/or vectors is recommended to further identify the viruses circulating in this region. However, isolation in cattle is difficult due to short viremic period of 2 to 6 days, and isolation in vectors does not necessarily reflect the situation in cattle.

Phylogenetic analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus strains causing outbreaks in Dutch poultry farms in 2014 provides evidence for separate introduction of the virus in four outbreaks in farms located 16-112 km from each other and for between-farm transmission between the third and fourth outbreak in farms located 550 m from each other. In addition, the analysis showed that all European and two Japanese H5N8 virus strains are very closely related and seem to originate from a calculated common ancestor, which arose between July and September 2014. Our findings suggest that the Dutch outbreak virus strain 'Ter Aar' and the first German outbreak strain from 2014 shared a common ancestor. In addition, the data indicate that the Dutch outbreak viruses descended from an H5N8 virus that circulated around 2009 in Asia, possibly China, and subsequently spread to South Korea and Japan and finally also to Europe. Evolution of the virus seemed to follow a parallel track in Japan and Europe, which supports the hypothesis that H5N8 virus was exchanged between migratory wild waterfowl at their breeding grounds in Siberia and from there was carried by migrating waterfowl to Europe.

Two separate analyses were carried out to understand the epidemiology of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in 2007 in North West Europe: First, the temporal change in transmission rates was compared to the evolution of temperature during that season. Second, we evaluated the spatio-temporal dynamics of newly reported outbreaks, to estimate a spatial transmission kernel. For both analyses, the approach as used before in analysing the 2006 BTV-8 epidemic had to be adapted in order to take into account the fact that the 2007 epidemic was not a newly arising epidemic, but one advancing from whereto it had already spread in 2006. We found that within the area already affected by the 2006 outbreak, the pattern of newly infected farms in 2007 cannot be explained by between-farm transmission, but rather by local re-emergence of the virus throughout that region. This indicates that persistence through winter was ubiquitous for BTV-8. Just like in 2006, we also found that the temperature at which the infection starts to spread lies close to 15 °C. Finally, we found that the shape of the transmission kernel is in line with the one from the 2006 epidemic. In conclusion, despite the substantial differences between 2006 and 2007 in temperature patterns (2006 featured a heat wave in July, whereas 2007 was more regular) and spatial epidemic extent, both the minimum temperature required for transmission and the transmission kernel were similar to those estimated for the 2006 outbreak, indicating that they are robust properties, suitable for extrapolation to other years and similar regions.

Background: Schmallenberg virus (SBV) has swept through the major part of Europe in the period 2011-2013. A vaccine against SBV has been developed and may be a possible preventive instrument against infection. Presently, there is no data available to refute the assumption that natural SBV infection results in long-term immunity. In that respect, it is of interest to know how long (protecting) virus-neutralizing antibodies are present in naturally infected animals. New-born calves acquire passive immunity from their dams by ingestion and absorption of antibodies present in colostrum, which can block the production of serum antibodies when vaccine is administered to calves with maternally derived antibodies. In that respect, it is useful to know how long it takes for maternal antibodies against SBV to disappear in young animals born from infected dams., Results: Longitudinal whole-herd serological monitoring using virus neutralization test (VNT) indicated that 80% of adult dairy cows still had measurable antibodies against SBV at least 24 months after the estimated introduction of the virus into the herd. Median 2Log VNT titer of the adult dairy cows (≥1 year) dropped from 8.6 to 5.6 in a period of 17 months. Median 2Log VNT maternal antibodies titers of calves sampled within 30 days after birth was 8. Calves lost their maternally-derived antibodies after 5-6 months. There was a definite positive relationship between the VNT titer of the dam and the VNT titer of the corresponding calf (age ≤ 30 days) of dam-calf combinations sampled on the same day: the higher the VNT titer of the dam, the higher the VNT titer (maternal antibodies) of the calf., Conclusions: Our field data support the assumption that natural SBV infection in adult cows results in persistence of specific antibodies for at least two years. Based on the observed decay of maternally-derived antibodies in calves, it is presumed safe to vaccinate calves against SBV at an age of approximately 6 months.

In the past decade, two pathogens transmitted by Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), bluetongue virus and Schmallenberg virus, have caused serious economic losses to the European livestock industry, most notably affecting sheep and cattle. These outbreaks of arboviral disease have highlighted large knowledge gaps on the biology and ecology of indigenous Culicoides species. With these research gaps in mind, and as a means of assessing what potential disease outbreaks to expect in the future, an international workshop was held in May 2013 at Wageningen University, The Netherlands. It brought together research groups from Belgium, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom and The Netherlands, with diverse backgrounds in vector ecology, epidemiology, entomology, virology, animal health, modelling, and genetics. Here, we report on the key findings of this workshop.

To determine which species of Culicoides biting midges carry Schmallenberg virus (SBV), we assayed midges collected in the Netherlands during autumn 2011. SBV RNA was found in C. scoticus, C. obsoletus sensu stricto, and C. chiopterus. The high proportion of infected midges might explain the rapid spread of SBV throughout Europe.

Background: Targeted risk-based surveillance of poultry types (PT) with different risks of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) infection may improve the sensitivity of surveillance., Objective: To quantify the rate of introduction of LPAIv infections in different PT., Methods: Data from the Dutch LPAIv surveillance programme (2007-2010) were analysed using a generalised linear mixed and spatial model., Results: Outdoor-layer, turkey, duck-breeder and meat-duck, farms had a 11, 8, 24 and 13 times higher rate of introduction of LPAIv than indoor-layer farms, respectively., Conclusion: Differences in the rate of introduction of LPAIv could be used to (re)design a targeted risk-based surveillance programme., (© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.)

Infections with Schmallenberg virus (SBV) are associated with congenital malformations in ruminants. Because reporting of suspected cases only could underestimate the true rate of infection, we conducted a seroprevalence study in the Netherlands to detect past exposure to SBV among dairy cattle. A total of 1,123 serum samples collected from cattle during November 2011-January 2012 were tested for antibodies against SBV by using a virus neutralization test; seroprevalence was 72.5%. Seroprevalence was significantly higher in the central-eastern part of the Netherlands than in the northern and southern regions (p<0.001). In addition, high (70%-100%) within-herd seroprevalence was observed in 2 SBV-infected dairy herds and 2 SBV-infected sheep herds. No significant differences were found in age-specific prevalence of antibodies against SBV, which is an indication that SBV is newly arrived in the country.

Estimates of the per-contact probability of transmission between farms of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus of H7N7 subtype during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are important for the design of better control and biosecurity strategies. We used standardized data collected during the epidemic and a model to extract data for untraced contacts based on the daily number of infectious farms within a given distance of a susceptible farm. With these data, we used a maximum likelihood estimation approach to estimate the transmission probabilities by the individual contact types, both traced and untraced. The estimated conditional probabilities, conditional on the contact originating from an infectious farm, of virus transmission were: 0.000057 per infectious farm within 1 km per day, 0.000413 per infectious farm between 1 and 3 km per day, 0.0000895 per infectious farm between 3 and 10 km per day, 0.0011 per crisis organisation contact, 0.0414 per feed delivery contact, 0.308 per egg transport contact, 0.133 per other-professional contact and, 0.246 per rendering contact. We validate these outcomes against literature data on virus genetic sequences for outbreak farms. These estimates can be used to inform further studies on the role that improved biosecurity between contacts and/or contact frequency reduction can play in eliminating between-farm spread of the virus during future epidemics. The findings also highlight the need to; 1) understand the routes underlying the infections without traced contacts and, 2) to review whether the contact-tracing protocol is exhaustive in relation to all the farm's day-to-day activities and practices.

Background: As low pathogenic avian influenza viruses can mutate into high pathogenic viruses the Dutch poultry sector implemented a surveillance system for low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) based on blood samples. It has been suggested that egg yolk samples could be sampled instead of blood samples to survey egg layer farms. To support future decision making about AI surveillance economic criteria are important. Therefore a cost analysis is performed on systems that use either blood or eggs as sampled material., Methodology/principal Findings: The effectiveness of surveillance using egg or blood samples was evaluated using scenario tree models. Then an economic model was developed that calculates the total costs for eight surveillance systems that have equal effectiveness. The model considers costs for sampling, sample preparation, sample transport, testing, communication of test results and for the confirmation test on false positive results. The surveillance systems varied in sampled material (eggs or blood), sampling location (farm or packing station) and location of sample preparation (laboratory or packing station). It is shown that a hypothetical system in which eggs are sampled at the packing station and samples prepared in a laboratory had the lowest total costs (i.e. € 273,393) a year. Compared to this a hypothetical system in which eggs are sampled at the farm and samples prepared at a laboratory, and the currently implemented system in which blood is sampled at the farm and samples prepared at a laboratory have 6% and 39% higher costs respectively., Conclusions/significance: This study shows that surveillance for avian influenza on egg yolk samples can be done at lower costs than surveillance based on blood samples. The model can be used in future comparison of surveillance systems for different pathogens and hazards.

Background: Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus that is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). In 2006, the introduction of BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) caused a severe epidemic in Western and Central Europe. The principal effective veterinary measure in response to BT was believed to be vaccination accompanied by other measures such as movement restrictions and surveillance. As the number of vaccine doses available at the start of the vaccination campaign was rather uncertain, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Dutch agricultural industry wanted to evaluate several different vaccination strategies. This study aimed to rank eight vaccination strategies based on their efficiency (i.e. net costs in relation to prevented losses or benefits) for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2008., Methodology/principal Findings: An economic model was developed that included the Dutch professional cattle, sheep and goat sectors together with the hobby farms. Strategies were evaluated based on the least cost - highest benefit frontier, the benefit-cost ratio and the total net returns. Strategy F, where all adult sheep at professional farms in The Netherlands would be vaccinated was very efficient at lowest costs, whereas strategy D, where additional to all adult sheep at professional farms also all adult cattle in the four Northern provinces would be vaccinated, was also very efficient but at a little higher costs. Strategy C, where all adult sheep and cattle at professional farms in the whole of The Netherlands would be vaccinated was also efficient but again at higher costs., Conclusions/significance: This study demonstrates that a financial analysis differentiates between vaccination strategies and indicates important decision rules based on efficiency.

Background: Since 2003, Member States (MS) of the European Union (EU) have implemented serosurveillance programmes for low pathogenic notifiable avian influenza (LPNAI) in poultry. To date, there is the need to evaluate the surveillance activity in order to optimize the programme's surveillance design., Objectives: To evaluate MS sampling operations [sample size and targeted poultry types (PTs)] and its relation with the probability of detection and to estimate the PTs relative risk (RR) of being infected., Methods: Reported data of the surveillance carried out from 2005 to 2007 were analyzed using: (i) descriptive indicators to characterize both MS sampling operations and its relation with the probability of detection and the LPNAI epidemiological situation, and (ii) multivariable methods to estimate each PTs RR of being infected., Results: Member States sampling a higher sample size than that recommended by the EU had a significantly higher probability of detection. Poultry types with ducks & geese, game-birds, ratites and "others" had a significant higher RR of being seropositive than chicken categories. The seroprevalence in duck & geese and game-bird holdings appears to be higher than 5%, which is the EU-recommended design prevalence (DP), while in chicken and turkey categories the seroprevalence was considerably lower than 5% and with that there is the risk of missing LPNAI seropositive holdings., Conclusion: It is recommended that the European Commission discusses with its MS whether the results of our evaluation calls for refinement of the surveillance characteristics such as sampling frequency, the between-holding DP and MS sampling operation strategies.

Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R₀, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R₀ maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R₀. We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R₀ map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R₀ maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R₀ maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.

A risk map of the between-farm spread of avian influenza (AI) in The Netherlands was constructed during the Dutch AI outbreak as a tool to support decision-making for control strategies. The risk map was based on an estimated distance-dependent probability of transmission of AI from an infectious farm to a susceptible farm. The estimated probability function was used to derive a threshold value for the local density of farms. In areas with local farm density above this threshold ('high risk'), transmission could lead to major outbreaks by local spread alone. In below-threshold areas ('low risk'), local spread alone will not cause a propagating epidemic. Distance-dependent probability was estimated from the data available at the start of the 2003 AI epidemic in The Netherlands. The resulting map predicted that two areas were at high risk. This approach might be applicable for other livestock infections and to other countries.

Despite continuing research efforts, knowledge of the transmission of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus still has considerable gaps, which complicates epidemic control. The goal of this research was to develop a model to back-calculate the day HPAI virus is introduced into a flock, based on within-flock mortality data. The back-calculation method was based on a stochastic SEIR (susceptible (S) - latently infected (E) - infectious (I) - removed (= dead; R)) epidemic model. The latent and infectious period were assumed to be gamma distributed. Parameter values were based on experimental H7N7 within-flock transmission data. The model was used to estimate the day of virus introduction based on a defined within-flock mortality threshold (detection rule for determining AI). Our results indicate that approximately two weeks can elapse before a noticeable increase in mortality is observed after a single introduction into a flock. For example, it takes twelve (minimum 11 - maximum 15) days before AI is detected if the detection rule is fifty dead chickens on two consecutive days in a 10 000 chicken flock (current Dutch monitoring rule for notification). The results were robust for flock size and detection rule, but sensitive to the length of the latent and infectious periods. Furthermore, assuming multiple introductions on one day will result in a shorter estimated period between infection and detection. The implications of the model outcomes for detecting and tracing outbreaks of H7N7 HPAI virus are discussed.

Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.

Daily within-flock mortality data, from a few days before until a few days after onset of increased mortality, from H7N7-infected flocks were analyzed with nonlinear regression for layer (organic and free-range or caged), broiler, and turkey flocks. The following notification thresholds were recommended for The Netherlands: 1) organic layer flocks, broiler flocks, and turkey flocks < or = 11 wk of age: > or = 0.5% mortality/day for two consecutive days; 2) layer flocks with birds housed in cages: > or = 0.25% mortality/day for two consecutive days; 3) turkey flocks > or = 16 wk of age: > or = 1% mortality/day for two consecutive days. Notification of increased mortality to the veterinary authorities should take place on the second day of increased mortality. Interpretation of mortality thresholds should be on the level of the poultry barn in which clinical problems arise. Because of nonoptimal specificity of proposed thresholds (mortality possibly caused by other diseases), use of PCR-diagnostics (results within 24 hr) without costs to the individual farmer should be promoted to exclude avian influenza in suspect clinical situations in order to minimize negative economic consequence for farmers and stimulate notification by farmers and veterinary practitioners.

The aim of this study was to make an inventory of the clinical signs of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI), to facilitate the development of an operational syndrome-reporting system (SRS) in The Netherlands as an early warning system for HPAI outbreaks. A total of 537 poultry flocks (240 infected and 297 non-infected) with a clinical suspicion of an infection with HPAI virus were investigated with respect to the clinical signs observed. Standardized reports were analysed with respect to observed clinical signs in the flocks. Various poultry types were distinguished. In infected commercial flocks with egg-producing chickens, the presence of increased mortality, apathy, coughing, reduction in normal vocalization, or pale eggs appeared to be overall the most sensitive indicators to detect a HPAI outbreak, matching a sensitivity of 99% with a specificity of 23%. In infected turkey flocks, the presence of apathy, decreased growth performance, reduction of normal vocalization, swollen sinuses, yawning, huddling, mucosal production from the beak, or lying down with an extended neck appeared to be overall the most sensitive indicators to detect a HPAI outbreak, matching a sensitivity of 100% with a specificity of 79%. In infected backyard/hobby flocks, increased mortality or swollen head appeared to be overall the most sensitive indicators of a HPAI outbreak, matching a sensitivity of 100% with a specificity of 26%. These results indicate that there is a solid basis for the choice of using increased mortality in the operational SRS in The Netherlands as an early warning system for HPAI outbreaks. The presence of apathy, specifically for turkeys, should be added to the SRS as an indicator.

An epidemic of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) A virus subtype H7N7 occurred in The Netherlands in 2003 that affected 255 flocks and led to the culling of 30 million birds. To evaluate the effectiveness of the control measures, we quantified between-flock transmission characteristics of the virus in 2 affected areas, using the reproduction ratio Rh. The control measures markedly reduced the transmission of HPAI virus: Rh before detection of the outbreak in the first infected flock was 6.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1-9.9) in one area and 3.1 in another area, and it decreased to 1.2 (95% CI, 0.6-1.9) after detection of the first outbreak in both areas. The observation that Rh remained >1 suggests that the containment of the epidemic was probably due to the reduction in the number of susceptible flocks by complete depopulation of the infected areas rather than to the reduction of the transmission by the other control measures.

After the discovery of poultry infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of subtype H7N7 in the central area of The Netherlands on 28 February 2003, the hypothesis was put forward that an outbreak of the low pathogenic (LP) variant of H7N7 had preceded, unnoticed, the occurrence of the HPAI virus. Consequently, a cross-sectional serological survey of the Dutch poultry population was executed in the second week of March 2003. The basic requirements set were detection of a 5% prevalence of flocks exposed to LPAI virus with 95% confidence within the production type stratification level within each province in The Netherlands. Because of supposed higher risk of avian influenza infections in ducks, turkeys and free-range poultry, all the commercial flocks of these production types present in The Netherlands were sampled. The serological screening of 28018 sera from 1193 randomly selected poultry farms, located outside surveillance zones showed that LPAI H7 virus infections had occurred on three neighbouring farms all located in the southwest of The Netherlands. No antibodies against the neuraminidase N7 subtype were detected in the sera of these farms, indicating that the subtype was different from the HPAI H7N7 subtype that caused the avian influenza epidemic in 2003. In addition, evidence of infections with non-H5 or non-H7 subtypes of influenza A virus were obtained in two other farms located in the northeast and the southeast of The Netherlands. It was concluded that the HPAI subtype H7N7 outbreak was most likely not preceded by a significant circulation of a LPAI subtype H7N7 virus. Based on the Dutch experience, recommendations are made to detect avian influenza infections faster in the future.

Clinical signs and gross lesions observed in poultry submitted for postmortem examination (PME) from the first five infected poultry flocks preceding the detection of the primary outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of subtype H7N7 during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are described. The absence of HPAI from the Netherlands for more than 75 yr created a situation in which poultry farmers and veterinary practitioners did not think of AI in the differential diagnosis as a possible cause of the clinical problems seen. Increased and progressive mortality was not reported to the governmental authorities by farmers or veterinary practitioners. It took 4 days from the first entry of postmortem material to notify the governmental authorities of a strong suspicion of an AI outbreak on the basis of a positive immunofluoresence test result. The gross lesions observed at PME did not comply with the descriptions in literature, especially the lack of hemorrhagic changes in tissues, and the lack of edema and cyanosis in comb and wattles is noted. The following lessons are learned from this epidemic: a) in the future, increased and progressive mortality should be a signal to exclude AI as cause of disease problems on poultry farms; b) intensive contact between the veterinary practitioner in the field and the veterinarian executing PME is necessary to have all relevant data and developments at one's disposal to come to a conclusive diagnosis; c) in an anamnesis, reporting of high or increased mortality should be quantified in the future (number of dead birds in relation to the number of birds brought to the farm to start production, together with the timing within the production cycle), or else this mortality cannot be interpreted properly; d) if clinical findings such as high mortality indicate the possibility of HPAI, the pathologist should submit clinical samples to the reference laboratory, even if PME gives no specific indications for HPAI; e) the best way to facilitate early detection of an HPAI outbreak is to have the poultry farmer and/or veterinary practitioner immediately report to the syndrome-reporting system currently in operation the occurrence of high mortality, a large decrease in feed or water intake, or a considerable drop in egg production; f) in order to detect low pathogenic avian influenza infections that could possibly change to HPAI, a continuous serologic monitoring system has been set up, in which commercial poultry flocks are screened for antibodies against AI virus of subtypes H5 and H7.

A total of 123 submissions (on average, five birds per submission) from poultry flocks with a suspicion of an infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus were investigated at postmortem during the 2003 epidemic in The Netherlands. A total of 86 of these submissions were from infected flocks (positive submissions), and 37 submissions were from non-infected flocks (negative submissions). Peritonitis was the most frequently (62%) recorded pathological finding in positive submissions, followed by tracheitis (43%), oedema of the neck and/or wattles (12%) and (petechial) haemorrhages in the proventriculus (4%). A total of 17% of the positive submissions consisted of birds without any macroscopic lesion. The pathological lesions observed in our study do not fully comply with descriptions in literature, especially the lack of haemorrhagic changes in tissues and low prevalence of oedema of the neck, comb and wattles. It is recommended that if peritonitis, or tracheitis, or oedema of the neck and/or wattles or (petechial) haemorrhages in the proventriculus is observed at postmortem examination, especially if accompanied by an anamnesis describing acute and high mortality in a flock, this should consistently result in follow-up action to exclude highly pathogenic avian influenza in the differential diagnosis as cause of the disease problems by testing tissue samples with an avian influenza-specific laboratory test at the avian influenza reference laboratory., (Copyright 2004 Houghton Trust Ltd)

In this study we quantified the rate at which classical swine fever had been transmitted by several different types of inter-herd contact during the 1997-8 epidemic in The Netherlands. During that epidemic 428 CSFV-infected pig herds were detected, 403 of which were include in this study. The estimated rates of transmission were 0.065 per shipment of live pigs, 0.011 per contact by a pig transportation lorry, 0.0068 per person contact, 0.0007 per dose of semen, 0.0065 per contact with a potentially contaminated pig assembly point, 0.027 per week per infected herd within a radius of 500 metres and 0.0078 per week per infected herd at a distance between 500 and 1000 metres. These transmission rates can be used to optimize the strategy to stop future epidemics of CSF in The Netherlands. In addition, the analysis demonstrated in this paper, can be used to quantify CSFV transmission rates from other epidemics.

The effect of an in ovo infection with a Dutch isolate of avian leukosis virus subgroup J (ALV-J) on the growth of specific pathogen free (SPF) broiler chickens was analysed. During this study, possible immune suppressive effects of ALV-J were assessed by measuring delayed-type hypersensitivity with keyhole limpet haemocyanin (KLH), natural killer (NK) cell activity, the production of radicals of nitric oxide (NO) by macrophages, humoral immune response against Newcastle and infectious bursal disease vaccine viruses, and automated total and differential leukocyte counts. In an attempt to elucidate the underlying causal mechanisms of the induced growth retardation, 3,3',5-triiodothyronine (T3) concentrations in serum were measured. Four experiments were conducted. In experiment 1, ALV-J-injected birds were compared with ALV subgroup A (ALV-A)-injected and negative control chickens. In experiment 2, ALV-J-injected birds were only compared with negative controls. Finally, in experiments 3a and 3b, ALV-J-injected chickens were compared with negative controls and a group of chickens in which only 10% of birds had been injected with ALV-J. Birds were injected in ovo at day 7 of incubation with 10(4) median tissue culture infectious dose (TCID(50)) ALV-J or ALV-A, except in experiment 3a where 10(2) TCID(50) ALV-J was injected. Significant growth suppression was found in all 100% of ALV-J-infected groups. The average growth retardation of ALV-J-infected birds compared with negative controls at 6 weeks of age was approximately 8, 11, 2.5 and 6% for the four successive experiments performed. The delayed-type hypersensitivity test against KLH of ALV-J-infected birds showed a tendency towards lower wattle thickness; however, the difference with controls was not significant (P > 0.05). The same was true for NK cell activity and NO production by macrophages, although the difference was not significant. The total and differential leukocyte counts performed on blood samples from birds at 3, 4 and 6 weeks of age as well as the humoral immune response against Newcastle and infectious bursal disease vaccine viruses did not show significant differences between treatment groups either. Only the number of basophils were significantly higher (P = 0.02) in ALV-J-infected birds at 3 weeks of age. No significant lower T(3) levels were found in ALV-J-infected birds in weeks 2 and 3 (experiment 2) and weeks 3 and 5 (experiment 3b); however, at 4 weeks (experiment 2) and 6 weeks (experiment 3b) of age, T(3) levels were significantly lower suggesting mild hypothyroidism in these broilers. In conclusion, the present experiments show the occurrence of significant growth retardation in SPF broilers after an ALV-J in ovo infection. The various studies performed to assess the immune competence of ALV-J-infected chickens did not show significant differences in immune responsiveness. The assays on cellular immunity showed a tendency to a lower response in ALV-J-infected birds, but these differences were not statistically significant.

Knowledge of the sensitivity of diagnostic tests for infectious diseases under field conditions can be used to design a surveillance program that increases the effectiveness of the control policy. In this study, the sensitivity of tests for the detection of classical swine fever (CSF) virus (CSFV) under field conditions was estimated without knowledge of the true disease status of the animals tested. During the CSF epidemic of 1997-1998 in The Netherlands, tonsil samples from pigs of CSF suspect farms were collected for laboratory diagnosis of CSE These specimens were tested in a fluorescence antibody test (FAT1) for the presence of CSFV antigen. When at least 1 specimen in a particular sample series from a farm was positive, this farm was declared CSFV infected. Specimens of that series, either FAT1 negative (98) or FAT1 positive (127), were subsequently tested again (FAT2). After that, a suspension was made of the remaining tissue, and this suspension was evaluated with a virus isolation test. In total, 225 tonsil specimens were examined. A statistical model was formulated, and the sensitivity of the 3 tests and the prevalence of positive specimens in the sample were estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. The sensitivity of the FAT1, the test that was used for confirmation of CSFV infection in a pig herd, was approximately 78% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 62-92%). The effectiveness of the selection process of animals on the farm by the veterinarian was estimated to be 77% (64-87%). The sensitivity of the combination of FAT1 and FAT2 (60%) indicates that at least 5 animals should be selected on a CSF-suspect farm to gain a detection probability for CSFV of 99%.

This study describes a field trial in which 80 commercial layer flocks, with an increased risk of Salmonella enteritidis (SE) infection and placed on farms with a certified Standardized Biosecurity Programme (SBP) or a request for a SBP certificate, were vaccinated with a vaccine based on a live attenuated Salmonella gallinarum (SG) 9R strain. An evaluation is presented of the efficacy of the vaccine against SE infections, the effect on the performance of serologic Salmonella tests, and the spread of the vaccine strain to the egg content. For the efficacy study, assessment of the flock level occurrence of SE infections in the vaccinated group of 80 flocks was compared with that of a nonvaccinated group of 1854 flocks hatched in the same period. This control group was examined according to the compulsory control programme in The Netherlands. An evaluation was done of the performance of serologic Salmonella tests and the spread of the vaccine strain to the inner egg content of five of the vaccinated flocks. Findings demonstrated the flock level occurrence of SE infections in the vaccinated group (2/80 = 2.5%) to be significantly (P = 0.01) lower than that of the nonvaccinated group (214/1854 = 11.5%). Vaccination resulted in 59.0% positive test results in lipopolysaccharide BD enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detecting antibodies against Salmonella serogroups B and D and 0% positive test results in the rapid plate agglutination test for detecting antibodies against S. pullorum (SP)/SG. The mean specificities of two blocking ELISAs (gm- and i-double antibody sandwich ELISAs) based on the flagellar antigen of SE and Salmonella typhimurium (ST) on the same sera were 99.6% and 96.1%, respectively. The vaccine strain could not be isolated from any of the 450 pools of 10 eggs. On the basis of these results, we concluded that vaccination with a vaccine based on an attenuated SG 9R strain contributes to the reduction of SE infections in commercial layer flocks. Furthermore, serologic monitoring of SE, ST, and SP/SG can still be carried out on flocks vaccinated with an attenuated SG 9R strain. Additionally, we found no indication of the spread of the vaccine strain to the egg content.

In 1997-1998, the Netherlands experienced a large epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF). The magnitude of this epidemic stressed the role information systems could play in supporting the management during an eradication campaign. The enforcement of an eradication strategy can become very complicated, especially with large epidemics, due to time pressure and many different procedures that have to be executed at the same time. The application of comprehensive information systems may result in more control over the process and in a relief of the operational management. After a brief description of the Dutch epidemic the authors provide an overview and the general application of four different types of information systems, classified as decision support systems. The application of these information systems in animal disease control is illustrated by providing concepts for a system architecture for transaction processing, management and executive information support and decision support. The application of a data warehouse as part of this systems architecture is explained. The eradication of CSF from the Netherlands was complicated by several factors. It is important to notice that information systems cannot prevent these factors. However, information systems can support disease control authorities in controlling these factors.

From August 1995 until December 1997, the effect of adding Salmonella enteritidis (SE) vaccination to a certified standardized biosecurity program in a situation of increased infection risk was examined in a field trial in The Netherlands. In this field trial, two groups of broiler-breeder flocks with increased infection risk were vaccinated, one group with VAC-T/TALOVAC logSE(group A) and the second group with SALENVAC (group B). The determination of increased infection risk in groups A and B was based on an SE infection history; flocks were either previously infected and treated (PIT) or had other risk factors than previously infected and treated (OPIT). SE infections in both vaccinated groups were assessed by monitoring according to the Dutch salmonella control program. Under field conditions, designation of a vaccinated and a control group on the farm was not possible. In the same period as the vaccinated groups, 608 nonvaccinated flocks (group C) were hatched and monitored according to the Dutch salmonella control program. The flock level occurrence of SE infection in the vaccinated groups was compared with the flock level occurrence of SE infection in the nonvaccinated group on the basis of comparability of infection risk. In group C, whether or not flocks had infection risk PIT was known and for risk factor OPIT, only whether or not a flock had been placed on a previously contaminated farm (= risk of reinfection) was known. The proportion of SE-infected flocks with risk factor PIT in the vaccinated groups was not significantly different from that in the nonvaccinated group C. Only the proportion of SE-infected flocks with a risk of reinfection in the vaccinated group B (0) was significantly lower (P = 0.02) than in the nonvaccinated group C (18%). The fact that no significant result was found in favor of group A is because of the small number of flocks in this part of the study. On the basis of the conditions of the setup of this trial, it can only be concluded that there is an indication that vaccination contributes in the reduction of SE reinfection in broiler breeder flocks.

The incidence of clinical mastitis in dairy cows was estimated in 171 randomly selected dairy herds from the southern part of The Netherlands. A total of 1103 quarter cases was reported. The mean annual incidence rate was 12.7 quarter cases/yr per 100 cows. The modeling incidence rate of clinical mastitis at the herd level indicated that a number of risk factors were associated with a higher rate of clinical mastitis: one or more cows that were leaking milk, one or more cows with trampled teats, no disinfection of the maternity area after calving, consistent use of post-milking teat disinfection, Red and White cattle (Meuse-Rhine-Yssel) as the predominant breed, and an annual bulk milk somatic cell count < 150,000 cells/ml. The following risk factors were associated with a higher rate of clinical mastitis caused by Escherichia coli: cows with trampled teats, no disinfection of the maternity area after calving, consistent use of post-milking teat disinfection, use of a thick layer of bedding in the stall, and the stripping of foremilk before cluster attachment. The following risk factors were associated with a higher rate of clinical mastitis caused by Staphylococcus aureus: Red and White cattle (Meuse-Rhine-Yssel) as the predominant breed, cows with trampled teats, the stripping of foremilk before cluster attachment, no regular disinfection of the stall, no regular replacement of stall bedding, and an annual bulk milk somatic cell count < 150,000 cells/ml.